Headlines

  • NPB’s Kazuma Okamoto, Tatsuya Imai Expected To Be Posted For MLB Teams
  • Shelby Miller Likely Headed For Tommy John Surgery
  • Red Sox To Place Roman Anthony On Injured List
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Diagnosed With Torn ACL
  • Braves Claim Ha-Seong Kim From Rays
  • Jason Adam Likely Headed For Season-Ending Quad Surgery
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

Remove Ads
  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Guardians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Oakland Athletics
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2026-27 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Agency Database
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Breakout Candidate: Robert Stephenson

By Connor Byrne | March 23, 2020 at 9:29pm CDT

We don’t know if or when the 2020 Major League Baseball season will begin, but should it occur, the Reds will enter the campaign as one of the most interesting teams in the game. You wouldn’t normally say that about a club in the throes of a six-year playoff drought – one that hasn’t even posted a .500 season during that span – but the Reds made a spirited effort to upgrade their roster over the winter. Cincinnati’s additions figure to help the team in what could be a wide-open race in the National League Central, though it will obviously need its top performers from 2019 to continue their strong play. That includes right-handed reliever Robert Stephenson, who may be on the verge of a breakout.

Now 27 years old, Stephenson entered pro baseball as the 27th overall pick in the 2011 draft. He was a consensus top-100 prospect for a few years during his days as a minor leaguer, though he hasn’t eluded adversity by any means. It took Stephenson quite some time to find his niche in the majors, where he worked as both a starter and a reliever from 2016-18 and put up an ugly 5.47 ERA/5.50 FIP with 8.64 K/9 and 5.67 BB/9 over 133 1/3 innings. Stephenson was exclusively a reliever last season, though, and the proverbial light bulb went on.

Across 57 appearances and 64 2/3 innings, Stephenson logged a 3.76 ERA/3.63 FIP with 11.27 K/9 and 3.34 BB/9. Those make for good numbers, not otherworldly production, but a deeper dive suggests Stephenson may have more in the tank.

Among qualified relievers in 2019, Stephenson ranked third in swinging-strike percentage (18.9), trailing only the Brewers’ Josh Hader and the Rays’ Nick Anderson. Those two are rightly regarded as superb relievers. For Stephenson, a notable increase in velocity was one of the causes of his success. After averaging 93.2 mph on his fastball in 2018, the number jumped to 95.0 a year ago. However, Stephenson’s slider – not his fastball – was his go-to pitch. He threw it a little under 57 percent of the time, per FanGraphs, which graded it as the best in baseball among all relievers. The pitch was indeed an absolute nightmare to contend with for hitters, who mustered an abysmal .176 weighted on-base average/.198 xwOBA against it, according to Statcast.

Speaking of Statcast, it ranked Stephenson as a top-notch hurler in several categories last year. See for yourself…

  • Fastball velocity: 78th percentile
  • Exit velocity: 81st percentile
  • Fastball spin: 86th percentile
  • Strikeout percentage: 88th percentile
  • xwOBA: 98th percentile
  • Hard-hit percentage: 98th percentile

That’ll do. Granted, Stephenson did benefit from a .230 batting average on balls in play against in 2019, but considering his tendency to limit meaningful contact, he deserves a good amount of credit for that. If he’s going to take the next step, though, keeping the ball out of the air would probably help. Stephenson owns a career 34.9 percent groundball rate, including just 31.8 last season. That said, the home run bug didn’t bite him, which it did with so many other pitchers. Only 12.7 percent of fly balls Stephenson yielded left the yard. Beyond that, a better showing versus opposite-handed hitters would help push Stephenson into the upper tier when it comes to preventing runs. Left-handed hitters’ wOBA (.315) off him was 94 points higher than righties’ (.221). That’s not to say a .315 wOBA is particularly threatening, however, as it’s in line with the figure light hitters such as Colin Moran and Nick Ahmed recorded last season.

There is undoubtedly plenty to like with Stephenson. Even if he just matches last year’s output, Stephenson may be one of the reasons the Reds push for contention in 2020. But if Stephenson puts it all together, we could be looking at one of the premier relievers in baseball.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Share 0 Retweet 21 Send via email0

Cincinnati Reds MLBTR Originals Breakout Candidate Robert Stephenson

Rookie Radar: AL West
Main
Extension Candidates: AL East
View Comments (20)
Post a Comment

20 Comments

  1. dynamite drop in monty

    5 years ago

    Where’s Louis?

    Reply
  2. 8

    5 years ago

    He will end up being the closer

    Reply
  3. DarkSide830

    5 years ago

    bust candidate

    Reply
    • earmbrister

      5 years ago

      Don’t be so hard on yourself …

      Reply
  4. ksoze

    5 years ago

    I like Stephenson, but I think he’ll top out at set up man, not closer

    Reply
    • BrandonGregory74

      5 years ago

      Yea he’s not a closer. He can give you multiple innings but he’s not a guy to put in to face the most dangerous hitters. He could probably take the bottom of the line up in the 9th in a pinch but you don’t want him living there.

      Reply
      • Iknowmorebaseball

        5 years ago

        Lol

        Reply
  5. richt

    5 years ago

    Oh great, here goes MLBTR again trying to be Fangraphs

    1
    Reply
    • trendysayings

      5 years ago

      Be nice

      1
      Reply
    • JohhnyBets67

      5 years ago

      Stick to things I can understand like RBIS and batting average please!

      Reply
    • thelegendofmike

      5 years ago

      Bitch, moan.

      1
      Reply
    • jdgoat

      5 years ago

      Wahhhh

      Reply
    • The Human Rain Delay

      5 years ago

      Fangraphs died the day it put Meg in charge

      2
      Reply
    • Dom2

      5 years ago

      Shut up! MLBTR is better than fangraphs because the writers are much cooler.

      1
      Reply
    • jonnyzuck

      5 years ago

      it’s not like much is happening for them to write about

      Reply
  6. devans6915

    5 years ago

    Put him back in the rotation!

    Reply
  7. asa2176

    5 years ago

    community.fangraphs.com/author/mattmancuso/

    Don’t wreck fangraphs, they were on this

    Reply
  8. asa2176

    5 years ago

    community.fangraphs.com/2019s-quietest-breakout/ this is correct link

    Reply
  9. willymayshayse

    5 years ago

    Devans6915 have you actually watched a Reds game in the past 3 yrs? The rotation is NOT the place for young Mr. Stephenson. Unless you’re a cubs/cards/bucs/brew crew fan. Then the rotation is EXACTLY where you want Stephenson.
    My question to you is who does he usurp? Not Castillo or Gray or Bauer. So your options are Disco…..a SOLID #5 and 4 yr mainstay, or Miley the free agent starter you JUST signed on a 2 yr deal.
    My guess is that you don’t watch the Reds and that you’re just spitballing an off the cuff response without any actual knowledge of the other rotation options available. My guess is the latter as everyone around the game knows that the Reds rotation is a top 5 rotation in the game.
    Stick to following soccer or poker or whatever it is you watch when you aren’t wrongly chiming in on teams you know nothing about.
    Have a wonderful day in quarantine.

    Reply
  10. dandan

    5 years ago

    Dude was downright un-hittable in high school. Had the pleasure to train with and play against him a little bit in the Bay Area. Hope he has a bounce back year and finds success.

    Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Please login to leave a reply.

Log in Register

    Top Stories

    NPB’s Kazuma Okamoto, Tatsuya Imai Expected To Be Posted For MLB Teams

    Shelby Miller Likely Headed For Tommy John Surgery

    Red Sox To Place Roman Anthony On Injured List

    Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Diagnosed With Torn ACL

    Braves Claim Ha-Seong Kim From Rays

    Jason Adam Likely Headed For Season-Ending Quad Surgery

    Mariners Promote Harry Ford, Release Donovan Solano

    Phillies Sign Walker Buehler To Minors Contract

    Red Sox Extend Aroldis Chapman

    Administrative Leave For Emmanuel Clase, Luis Ortiz Extended “Until Further Notice”

    Cubs To Sign Carlos Santana

    Red Sox Release Walker Buehler

    Pirates Place Isiah Kiner-Falefa On Outright Waivers

    Randy Rodriguez Recommended To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

    Padres Place Xander Bogaerts On IL With Foot Fracture

    Cardinals To Promote Jimmy Crooks

    Red Sox To Promote Payton Tolle

    Corey Seager To Undergo Appendectomy, Not Ruled Out For Season

    Frankie Montas To Undergo UCL Surgery

    Guardians Release Carlos Santana

    Recent

    The Guardians’ Surprising Pitching Need

    Is Jordan Walker Still A Core Player In St. Louis?

    Astros Notes: Paredes, Hader, Arrighetti

    Orioles Outright Corbin Martin

    Twins To Activate Pablo Lopez

    Taylor Walls Undergoes Sports Hernia Surgery

    NPB’s Kazuma Okamoto, Tatsuya Imai Expected To Be Posted For MLB Teams

    Dodgers Designate Alexis Díaz For Assignment

    Royals Place Seth Lugo On Injured List

    Dodgers To Select Ben Rortvedt

    MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

    Latest Rumors & News

    Latest Rumors & News

    • Every MLB Trade In July
    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android App Store Google Play

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • Remove Ads, Support Our Writers
    • Front Office Originals
    • Front Office Fantasy Baseball
    • MLBTR Podcast
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2026-27 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Guardians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives
    • RSS/Twitter Feeds By Team

    MLBTR INFO

    • Advertise
    • About
    • Commenting Policy
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

    hide arrows scroll to top

    Register

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version