You tend to hear talk of “The Next [insert player’s name]” involving guys whose careers change something about the way we think about a sport. It’s often the earth-shaking stars — Babe Ruth, Michael Jordan, Lawrence Taylor types. But not always.
In baseball, we’ve heard talk for years of “The Next Ben Zobrist” or “Team X’s Ben Zobrist.” It’s one of those things that you tended to understand when you heard it. Zobrist embodied something new and different: he was a high-end, star-level performer masquerading as a regular old utility guy. Moving around the diamond, featuring a plate-discipline-driven offensive skillset, and playing in Tampa Bay … it took some time for Zobrist to make it on the map. But once he finally got the recognition he deserved, he became the archetype of a new breed of player.
While the rest of the league caught on to the idea of moving guys around the diamond more liberally, we haven’t yet seen a single player match Zobrist as a Swiss Army knife that’s actually really good at all its functions over a sustained, multi-season span. Now, as Zobrist rides off into the sunset, Jeff McNeil of the Mets promises to change that …
The then-Devil Rays originally landed Zobrist from the Astros — in exchange for Aubrey Huff — way back in the early days of MLBTR (July of 2006). Some guy named Tim Dierkes wrote up the trade, characterizing Zobrist as a “solid but not spectacular shortstop prospect” of the sort who’s a “good guy to have around, gets on base, but not a star.”
Thankfully, Tim’s readers stuck with him despite that whiff. (I doubt I’ve had any of those, so … no need to go back and check, thanks.) In truth, the description was plenty fair at the time. It took a while for Zobrist to emerge.
Zobrist was a mess in his first two MLB seasons, putting up -1.7 rWAR and -1.9 fWAR cumulatively for the Tampa Bay organization. When the club dropped the devil from its name in 2008, Zobrist’s age-27 season, his angelic side emerged. He earned his way back for another shot and showed quite well in a 62-game run.
The next year opened with Zobrist as an obvious choice for the MLB roster. He ultimately emerged as an outright star … on paper, at least, while awaiting recognition … by turning in 599 plate appearances of .297/.405/.543 hitting with 27 home runs and nearly as many walks (91) as strikeouts (104). And he did so while appearing at every spot on the diamond aside from the battery (in addition to taking a turn at DH).
Like his forefather, McNeil was a legitimate but non-elite prospect when drafted. (The former went in the sixth round, the latter in the twelfth.) Neither player was hyped much on his way up the ladder; in both cases, they showed excellent plate discipline and polished hit tools … but little in the way of home run power.
The skillsets are rather similar, as are the timelines. Actually, having recently celebrated his 28th birthday, McNeil is a bit ahead of Zobrist’s curve. And his own versatility is proving equally useful to the Mets as Zobrist’s did to the Rays.
McNeil lined up mostly at second base when he was first called upon in 2018. He graded rather well there and could certainly have just been kept at the position for the long haul. But the Mets had other ideas. As they cooked up a surprising swap for Edwin Diaz, the Mets reportedly discussed McNeil with the Mariners. Fortunately for the New York org, it didn’t ultimately have to put him in. (Ill-conceived though the trade was, as we recently explored on YouTube, losing McNeil would’ve made it an even greater calamity.) But adding Robinson Cano meant bumping McNeil off of second base. He did have a lot of experience at the hot corner on the farm, but McNeil had spent very little time in the outfield. As it turned out, McNeil handled more 2019 frames on the grass than on the dirt, grading out as a capable defender no matter where he was thrown
While the glovework is what primarily spurs the comparison, there’s a lot connecting these two at the plate as well. McNeil is rather more dependent upon his ability to maintain a really lofty batting average to get on base. While he rarely strikes out, he’s not as handy at drawing walks as was Zobrist. But with a .321 batting average through 815 career plate appearances … so far, so good.
While McNeil had ramped up his power output in his breakout upper-minors showing in 2018 — thus forcing his way up in the midst of a busted Mets campaign — it was hard to know if it’d carry forward. He hit only three dingers in his first 63 games and 248 plate appearances in the majors. But McNeil launched 23 long balls in 567 trips to the dish in 2019, his first full big league campaign. That’s not an overly impressive tally in the streamlined-orb era, but it does suggest that McNeil can find a way to expand his contact skills into loft when the offensive environment supports that kind of approach. Zobrist never came within seven long balls of his first full-season tally, though that certainly didn’t stop him from producing a ton of value at the plate.
Why McNeil and not some other would-be Zobrists? Well, to this point, McNeil owns a 141 wRC+ at the plate — figures reminiscent of Zobrist’s monster early output. Whit Merrifield has perhaps the best claim, and he’s quite a good player in his own right. But he’s also a different beast — rather less bat (109 career wRC+) but with greater value on the bases. David Fletcher has versatility on his side, but he’s not even an average overall hitter over the same approximate span as McNeil. Likewise, Brock Holt doesn’t have a consistent record at the plate. Tommy Edman and Cavan Biggio each had early success, but neither has completed a full MLB season.
So … will the comparison hold? Zobrist took a bit of a step back at the plate in his second full MLB season but rebounded soon thereafter. And he continued to deliver multi-faceted value until he ran out of gas at the tail end. All said, Zobrist delivered 44.5 rWAR and 44.4 fWAR over this 14-year career.
McNeil has a long way to go to reach those levels of overall productivity. Statcast numbers suggest he was a bit fortunate last year, when he carried a .355 xwOBA and .385 wOBA. But even with a bit of a step back, we’d be looking at a high-quality offensive performer who (like Zobrist) contributes in the field and on the bases. Though McNeil is presently slated to line up at third base for the Mets, that could still evolve over time. Perhaps he’ll even end up reprising his ever-shifting 2019 role for certain seasons. Whether or not it’s ultimately utilized, that flexibility will help immensely when it comes to managing the roster during and between seasons.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The next Zobrist is Fletcher. He was a gold glove qualifier at 3rd. He’s a better second baseman than 3rd basemen. He plays a good shortstop. And plays outfield.
McNeil can hit, but he doesn’t carry the same kind of glove.
agreed, imo as good if not better GLOVE then Simmons now, not the arm tho. could gold glove no doubt at 7 positions , and is the amgels #3 catcher on depth chart. a 290 hitter with is EXTREMELY clutch with 2 outs and/or risp.
You obviously never seen McNeil play, he’s well above average at every position he plays
And he plays the outfield.
McNeil hasn’t really done bad at any position, but Fletcher is a better fielder at more positions.
But fletcher will never be the hitter that McNeil is..
Agreed!!!
But that’s a whole different sort of player. Zobrist could really, really hit. So can McNeil. Fletcher hasn’t shown that.
Pshh, but I like the guy who plays for my team even if he’s not the thing you’re talking about in the article. You should like him more than the guy who I don’t like as much.
McNeil can’t be the next Zobrist. McNeil can hit. Zobrist is a career 266 hitter. with 1 season above 277.
I think Tommy Edman has a shot at being a Zobrist type star.
He’s got the best offense/defense combo in my opinion to be similar to Zobeist as well. McNeil is weighted towards offense and Fletcher is weighted towards defense.
Small sample though, Edman has a lot more hitting to do to prove he’s not a fluke
I can’t argue with you bc I’m not saying your wrong but I think mcniel is still the best combo. Bc he is a way superior hitter and his defense is above avg at every position he plays. He isn’t josh bell
Give Edman and Nico Hoerner time theyll both be the next Zo. What makes that great is they were teammates at Stanford. For the next 5 or 6 years they’re gonna be robbing each other of hits. I think both will be mot only superstars but multi time gold glove winners.
I think you mean the early days of 2006, not 2016.
david fletcher says hi
Eh, I think Fletcher’s offensive ceiling is a grade lower. And he’s played OF, but is he any good there?
He had 3 DRS, 2.3 UZR, 1.7 range runs above average, and 16 UZR/150 in only 154 innings last year. He’s pretty good if you ask me.
touche mlb1225
But he is nowhere near that hitter that McNeil is. McNeils low OPS season was 120 points higher than Fletchers.
Hi David, I like you as well.
Whit Merrifield
Insert you have made David Fletcher unhappy meme
Cavan Biggio
Cavan Biggio
Fletcher, McNeil, and Cavan certainly all are Zo-like, but i think McNeil’s defensive profile and offenive skillset.
Yeah I addressed all the Zobrist pretenders (!) in a new para that I just added. McNeil is different because he has been a true offensive stud to this point.
-insert player on favorite team-
Wooo i think uh Roman Quinn is the next Zobrist!
Scott Kingery
Chad Pinder could also be considered the next Ben Zobrist.
Nowhere near the track record at the plate we are looking at here.
that’s who i thought of too
Wait, wasn’t Marwin already the next Zobrist?
I was gonna say, with all the hype he’s gotten over the past handful of years, he seems like he’d be another version of Zobrist
Yeah, not sure how Marwin Gonzalez missed being mentioned.
I’m not sure Marwin was ever in the same class of hitter than Zo was. His best season also has question marks, fair or not. Marwin was more so closer to the idea of Zo, Swith hitter who plays multiple positions.
I see Vanderbilt’s Austin Martin as the Zobrist/McNeil prototype. He will likely go first or second when a MLB draft is ultimately held.
Nick Gonzales also fits. He should go in the top five.
Mark Canha comes to mind..
1B, 3B, LF, RF, CF, possibly could do 2B if needed.
Ray’s have a whole list of them.
Daniel Robertson comes to mind
Ian Happ could be that guy if he taps into his potentia
Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez could make a case.
Canha can hit but he is a bad defender. He can play several positions in a pinch without embarrassing himself but he is below average at every position except maybe 1b.
It’s a real stretch to compare any of these guys with Zobrist. I guess you can try and match up early career numbers, but until any of them have real postseason experience and some numbers to compare on that level, then forget about it. That’s where Z has stood out. 2 WS MVP awards in both leagues actually made him more valuable than most big time regulars. He was way more than a versatile utility-man.
Agreed here. There are alotta names here that dudes just thinking they’re smarter than everyone else.
Lol at sandman12 throwing out a guy not even drafted.
Zobrist types really aren’t rare at all. It’s far more about how they are actually used tan their abilities. This is why SS type prospects are by far the most popular in the draft. Because it is usually figured that if a player can play SS, they can play anywhere.
Zobrist only won one WS MVP. He didn’t win one with the Royals.
I stand corrected. Thank you.
it seems like the giants are trying to make zobrists out of a lot of guys, there have been a number that they have been trying to make into IF/OF versatile guys as far as prospects go
Wow no mention of Marwin Gonzalez who can switch hit and play First, Second, Third, Short, Left, and Right Field.
He had one big offensive season … career league-average hitter.
the trash cans were kind to him in 2017
McNeil is a way better hitter
McNeil plays four positions and he’s average to slightly above average defensively at all of them (3B, 2B, LF, RF)
In the 1980s-90s, Tony Phillips accumulated over 50 bWAR over 18 seasons playing every position beside pitcher and catcher. Although he never had an 8+or 7+ bWAR as does Zobrist, Phillips had 7 seasons with bWAR of 4+ or 5+. Zobrist has a bWAR bit over 44 in 14 seasons. So his season average is a bit higher.
What sets them apart is that there was less conversation of Phillips at the time, and he did not seem to establish a trend as Zobrist has. I think Phillips was considered at least a solid defender everywhere. I don’t know he was as plus as Zobrist has been.
Definitely an overlooked guy.
Probably racism.
I don’t think Tim’s analysis was wrong. Zobrist was never a “star”. Good to have around? Alright, perhaps “great” to have around, but the “have around” part of the analysis makes me think of a useful guy who plays a lot of positions and does a lot of the “little things”. That sounds exactly like Ben Zobrist. Sounds like Tim nailed it on the head. As for you, Jeff, listing Taylor with the greatest players ever in their sports? That coke head was a great player, but I don’t know if I’d place with him with the Babe and MJ.
I was joking around re Tim, thought that obvious.
Point re LT was that he was a game-changing, super-elite player of the sort that leaves people thinking, “who else is like him?” I’m not really interested in greatest-of-all-time intrasports debates.
OK, well, if you’re not interested in that debate, then this is no fun. I know you were messing with Tim, it was obvious. IMO, the greatest in each major sport: Michael; The Babe; Gretzky; probably a QB, since they are so critical. Maybe Brady. To me, it’s Walter Payton. But again, you’re not interested so…
Love how Jeff mcneil was an all star and legit stud but all these fans of other teams are tossing names of non every day utility players as if they compare
Seriously? Don’t you know every team has a hidden utility player hitting 320 AVG with a 920 OPS?
The thing that makes zobrist unique is that he never really stuck at one position. A lot of guys that hit like him started off moving around but eventually their bat was to good to keep in that role so they locked them into a position.
The reds moved senzel all over but it’s likely he’ll play lf/cf this year and not the 2b/3b he played in minors.
I think McNeil and fletcher will find their spots as well. Especially fletcher.
Brodie nearly traded him and then moved him off of second base to get Cano lol
McNeil is better!
Wait. Ben Zobrist? Who’s he? Oh yeah, the Brock Holt of the Cubs.
One has 44.5 lifetime WAR, the other 8.5. If I squint I can sorta see the similarity. ;^)
The rare thing about Zobrist is the walks. Low k, modest power guys usually don’t walk that much because pitchers have little incentive to leave the zone.
Usually if you have a 15 homer guy with good contact pitchers will just let you hit leading to lowish walks while a 40 homer guy even with a mediocre eye will get pitched around.
Guys like Zobrist and Mauer are the exception from that because their eye was so good and in Zobrists case maybe also the reputation from his 27 homer campaign leading pitchers to be somewhat cautious.
Jeff is a stud. He’ll retire with a .300 average and be solid anywhere you play him. That said,he’s the 3b spot
What’s amazing is that the Mets have another super-utility player in J.D. Davis. Davis is not the level of defender McNeil, but he has a bat that asks for regular playing time. Also, he was a closer in college, but the Mets didn’t try to establish him as a two-way player. Assuming we do eventually have a season, it may be hard for him to get on the field if Lowrie and Cespedes are relatively healthy.
JD is not a utility player. He is a 3rd baseman. He should not play any other position.
The guy has played 2 years. How many MLB players could we have written this about? Nope East Coast so we have to pander to the NY fans. Disgusting
Yes. please list the players that have a 320 avg, 900 ops and less than 100 strikeouts after 2 seasons.
McNeil, position wise is similar. But that’s where it ends , McNeil is by far an Elite player. No comparison at all…
The Yankees always say Tyler Wade will be the next Zobrist. He may be but not with them doubt he’ll get that opportunity with Yankees
He has a sub 200 average give it up he stinks
Pet Peeve
Tony Phillips was a “Ben Zobrist” before Ben Zobrist was…
Mike Brosseau…TB, plays multiple positions, can hit, field and play multiple positions
But can he play multiple positions?