It’s obviously way too soon to judge Orioles GM Mike Elias on his handling of a much-needed Baltimore rebuilding effort. He has only been on the job since November of 2018 and didn’t exactly inherit a slate of players that offered ample opportunity to wheel and deal. Most of the GMs we’ve profiled to date in our GM Trade History series have been on the job at least three times as long as Elias. Still, we can take a look at his initial trade history to glean some initial impressions …
2019-20 Offseason
- Acquired RHPs Isaac Mattson, Zach Peek, Kyle Bradish and Kyle Brnovich from Angels for RHP Dylan Bundy
- Acquired LHP Easton Lucas from Marlins for INF Jonathan Villar
2019 Season
- Acquired OF Elio Prado and INF Noelberth Romero from Red Sox for RHP Andrew Cashner
- Acquired RHP Asher Wojciechowski from Indians for cash
- Acquired OF Keon Broxton from Mets for international bonus availability
- Acquired RHP Tyler Herb from Giants for OF Mike Yastrzemski
2018-19 Offseason
- Acquired OF Dwight Smith Jr. from Blue Jays for international bonus availability
- Acquired RHP Pedro Araujo from Cubs for international bonus availability
- Acquired RHP Xavier Moore from Twins for international bonus availability
- Acquired RHP David Lebron from Rangers for international bonus availability
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It’s not even quite time for a midterm report card, but we’ll ask anyway: how do you grade Elias’s trades to this early point? (Poll link for app users.)
Grade Mike Elias's trades with Orioles:
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C 40% (1,608)
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B 22% (877)
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D 22% (857)
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F 10% (401)
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A 6% (235)
Total votes: 3,978
Curious to look back on additional GMs and their trade histories? We’ve already polled on Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, recently fired Astros president Jeff Luhnow, Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns, Angels GM Billy Eppler, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich, Tigers GM Al Avila, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, Phillies GM Matt Klentak, Padres GM A.J. Preller, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, Rays GM Erik Neander, ex-Red Sox front office leader Dave Dombrowski, Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen, and Reds GM Dick Williams.
traded Villar and Bundy for basically scraps. not imprssive in the least.
What do you think he was supposed to get for one year of a bum with a 4.67 career ERA? Villar they probably should have just kept and traded at the deadline, but he’s also a free agent, so may as well take what you can get and tank (again).
I don’t really get giving away bonus pool money for junk, but that’s probably Angelos not wanting to spend that $$$.
2 years of Bundy. It was supposed to be anyway. We’ll see how much of a baseball season we actually get this year.
Really no way you can grade that trade right now. The guy has been in the major league for 5 years—you can only value a guy on his “great potential” for so long. He lost his big fastball he had pre-TJ and that knocked him down to from potential #1 to a mid rotation guy at best. You just don’t get that much back for 2 years of a #4 starter. There was no surplus value on Villar’s deal. I think you’ll see him prove that this year. Every AL team declined to put in a waiver claim on him. So you know that should tell you a little something.
The bonus money was all saved up for a particular prospect, so when they didn’t sign him and he went with the marlins, there wasn’t a reason for them to keep it. That’s the supposed reasoning behind those moves, at least.
Getting 4 players for Bundy is a good job by Elias in my opinion.
Bundy is/was scraps
D. Gonna take time to see how his moves pan out..but not looking good as of right now. Got 4 pitchers for Bundy we will see if one can make the trade worth it.
Gave away Villar for nothing.
Should of traded him last deadline or held on to him and traded him if/when play resumes.
Gave away yastremski.
And in traditional Orioles fashion giving away international slot money. Granted that’s the owner but gm needs to put his foot down and say look if you want a contender we need as many pieces as we can get.
What exactly would he have had to do to get an A?
IDK maybe get a few more high upside guys who aren’t in the top 100 prospects. But right now since we haven’t seen how any of his players have developed, it’s impossible to give him an A.
@Rangers29 and how do you suppose he goes about getting those high upside guys that aren’t in the top 100?
If he trades Santander and Sisco to the Angels for Brandon Marsh. Maybe he could target high upside relievers like Demarcus Evans for the Rangers who you could trade for Severino or something like that. Maybe they should try to get more international money and start getting the long term prospects of Latin America. All I’m saying is, instead of asking for a king’s ransom, go get 3 or 4 lotto tickets for guys like Villar. Now you could get a King’s ransom for Mancini (and I hope they do), but right now they shouldn’t be targeting highly ranked guys.
no way the Angels do that. We needed a catcher so Sisco makes sense but Santander is an outfielder and that’s the one area of depth we have. With Goodwin, Adell, and Marsh, plus Upton’s contract.
If Upton wasn’t in the mix, that might be another thing.
What if I replace Santander with Givens?
How do you get high upside talent that could develop into top prospects?
Trade your best asset in Trey Mancini.
Dumb comment here again. That international money was from a time period when 95% of the players were signed. The orioles basically had no international scouting team before Elias came in. You can’t sign guys who you’ve never had a single scout look at. What is the strategy going to be in that situation? Get a list of names and put them in a hat? Then get a list of bonuses and put them in another hat to decide how much you’ll give each prospect?
Elias spent his intl money last year. You know when he had a scouting team and an entire signing period. Not 3 months and no team.
If guys with All Star upside were available for Villar, don’t you think Elias would have taken them? You really think he took an inferior return just for funsies or something?
Better but a long reliever and a catcher for a Top 100 prospect the Angels brass have been high on for a while seems like a stretch.
If they wouldn’t trade Marsh for Kluber, I think it would really take a big offer to get him. Might be one of those internal valuations are bigger than external ones things.
jbigz12 nailed this. They had a ton of International money and DD didn’t spend it. All of the players were gone so Elias used it as trade bait until he could put his own department together.
You can’t sign guys who you’ve never had a single scout look at. What is the strategy going to be in that situation?
Actually, you can sign guys. Before he was hired by the Orioles he was assistant general manager in the Astros organization and given over site of player development and minor league operations. You think he didn’t have a hand in the Astros IFA spending/scouting in 2018? Yeah they just decided to keep him out of the loop that year.
Now. Far as 2019. Baltimore had 6 million in IFA money available. Most they dished out to a guy was $475,000. Didn’t even try to sign top guys, some of whom went for 600k-700k, not that much more.
Baseball America lists signings. Lowest amount they showed was 200k. Orioles spent 1.6 mill on 4 guys. So 23 others. Say the other 23 averaged 100k each (some higher some lower). That’s another 2.3 mill. So Orioles spent roughly 4 mill of their 6 mull? Only 66%?
That right there tells me one thing given their history. Owner let him sign guys to get the mlb and fans off his back. He’s taken a lot of grief for not signing ifa guys and guarantee the mlb talked to him. Gave Elias a number to spend. Had no interest in actually pursuing ifa market as its meant to be.
Given the Orioles history all that money should of been spent and gone if they actually turned a new leaf.
And please don’t give me excuses like their department didn’t like the guys signed by others or they didn’t like the prospects available…..bs.
Orioles farm sucks. They need all the lottery tickets they can get. Not spending all that money is a slap in the face given how pitiful it has been in the past and the lack of talent coming up the ranks.
Again. 95% of the guys are gone when Elias takes over. He did not run any IFA operation with the Astros. The IFA market is a relationship market as well. The big bonus guys have decided where they’re going to go years in advance. The orioles have fostered no relationships down there. The real time to grade the Orioles IFA moves is in the next couple years.
Orioles farm isn’t too bad anymore either. Ought to pay attention to it!
At least 2 of the prospects he has acquired so far need to become around all star level production for fans to have faith in management let alone give him a A grade
Umm….you do know who he traded, right? Why would Dylan Bundy or Jonathan Villar get a major-league ready all-star player? That will come slowly through the draft or through acquiring low minors prospects.
That’s the problem isn’t it. This team was so badly managed they hardly have any talent on the roster and many of their high level prospects are a few years from making it. Baltimore is going to be significantly bad for 5 years at least mostly due to front office being so inept
To get an A?
I’d give him an A if he were able to convince the owner to spend on international free agents instead of trading away the money. I’d consider that A material.
I’d love to see a graphic or article that shows how much teams have traded away in terms of international free agent money slots each year.
The Orioles did sign 27 international free agents last July. So the Angelos’s are letting Elias do that. Why they didn’t let Duquette do it is a head scratcher. As far as Mancini, his current condition puts any trade possibilities on the back burner. Hope and pray for a full recovery
Like jbigz said above, there weren’t any worthwhile international free agents available when Elias actually got the job with that money. Rather than let it go to waste, he tried to acquire what talent he could. You can fault the O’s front office for a lot of things, but you can’t fault Elias for those trades in particular.
As mentioned above.
Orioles had 6 mull available in 2019 for ifas.
Signed 0 top prospects. Dished out 475k to the highest paid guy.
They spent 1.6 mill on 4 guys. Which left about 4.5 mill for 23 guys. That averages out to be about 195k per guy. Doubt the Orioles spent all that money.
At best they probably spent 4 mill total leaving about 2 mill left…..hasn’t spent it.
Why? Orioles suddenly rich with prospects and farm talent?
My god why aren’t you getting this. The six mil or whatever that DD amassed was for a draft class that was pretty much closed by the time Elias took office. The best of the best sign early and it all resets in July. There were three studs left in the winter and they ended up signing with Miami I think, and still that was BEFORE Elias was hired. You’re basically mad that Elias didn’t spend six mil just to spend six mil.
Mike Yaz never did anything in the O’s system like he did in SF. No way to predict that. Also, those international money deals were when the best talent had already been scouted and signed so Elias did the next best thing, using it to acquire players instead of letting it go unused.
Look on the bright side. You can’t make a bad deal when every player on your team is terrible.
Ignorant comment .. Villar was coming off a terrific year and could have easily been tendered a contract and then dealt at the deadline for more .. It appears as if ownership didn’t want to pay Villar and demanded a deal which handcuffed Elias (which while bad for him still goes on his record)
They tried trading Villar at the 2019 trade deadline-no takers. They attempted to trade him after the 2019 season-no takers. They placed him on waivers-no claims. Yes he had a career year but there was no market for him. You can’t force a team to take him in a trade. They could have held on to him and attempted to trade him this year, but what if he reverted back to form? Then you would be stuck with him. Would have paid 8 million dollars with no return
You are SO wrong. The Machado deal should tell you that no one easily gets traded at the trade deadine.
Hello Jeff,
Does the 2019-20 offseason goes to the bottom and 2018-19 offseason goes to the top and not the other way around?
There is no miracle trade you can do with how bad the team is.
They have many trade-able pieces in that lineup: Mancini, Santander, Alberto, Nunez, Severino, and maybe Chance Sisco. I’d just like to see Mancini traded for a king’s ransom and then I’ll look at Elias in a different light, but right now he hasn’t gotten anything good from his decent players. It’s a C.
BTW I still want to see Mancini in the middle of the Rangers order… pls baseball gods.
I think he’s done an okay job so far. Not great, not horrible.
We can complain about trading Villar for scraps but the fact is that nobody offered anything more than Lucas around the entire league, despite some suspect second base situations on contending teams….I think as Orioles fans we tended to overrate Villar, his 4.0 WAR was inflated by good defensive metrics that A) didn’t pass the eye test this year and B) are unusual for him given the rest of his career. There would be a lot of situations where he made a baserunning error or didn’t cover the right base when fielding that might not show up in advanced metrics in the same way.
The Bundy trade, if we get a living, breathing pitcher then that’s automatically a win. Bundy’s never going to make it work in terms of results, which pains me to say as a big fan of his.
And as for Yaz, he was 27 and was never even an average hitter in the minors, it’s far more likely some SF coach unlocked something in him and/or change of scenery helped. I don’t think you can hold this against him unless you also give him a ton of credit for Hanser Alberto. In my opinion, both were just change of scenery or small sample size things, and cancel each other out.
B or C seems like a reasonable grade for him right now. There’s no clear wins except maybe the Wojo trade but I wouldn’t say there’s a clear loss either.
I would say that trading for Wojciechowski wasn’t a win either. Not sure how much cash they gave up but they could have pulled up a career minor leaguer and likely would have gotten similar production. 4.92 ERA with a 5.30 FIP last year. Someone else could have potentially taken that spot and run with it. We just don’t know.
Yeah, that’s a fair point.
I do agree with you though that there is no clear loss on his record. You made a good point with Yaz. He wasn’t a blue-chip prospect so nobody should be bashing Elias for moving on from him.
Could have traded for Hector Noesi who was doing better in AAA by ERA, K%, K/9, BB%, BB/9 and averaging more IP per start at the time.
How did I know that an article that began with “obviously way too soon to judge Orioles GM Mike Elias on his handling of a much-needed Baltimore rebuilding effort” would end with a grading poll?
Hard to judge a GM based on dumpster diving
The Tyler Herb trade for Yastrzemski was bad, he gave up on the kid to early. I don’t like the Bundy move either. I like the move of Cashner for international young talent, that’s a move that’s all upside
Too early? He was 27 and a below average hitter, and didn’t distinguish himself in the spring. It was past time to move on.
Yastrzemski was not a blue-chip prospect so there really wasn’t any reason to hang onto an outfielder that was at the time playing below average and no longer youthful enough to fit in their future. If he had been a high draft pick with a good pedigree then maybe you could say it was a bad trade. Nobody expects a breakout like that from a 28 year-old.
Mike Yastrzemski is almost 30 years old today. Elias didn’t give up on him too early. That’s for sure. Some guys just put it all together put of nowhere. (We’ll see if it lasts anyway) But Dan Duquette is the one who never gave him a shot. He was left unprotected in the rule 5 draft multiple times.
I don’t blame Dan Duquette for overlooking him either. The minor league numbers were thoroughly unimpressive.
I got him at B-. Cashner trade has potential to be a steal, but we are at least 5 years from evaluating that. I think he wins the Bundy trade, and this is coming from an Angels fan.. Yaz trade sucks, but the Asher Woj was a win for the O’s. The Villar trade is a big L. I think Lebron could be nice, he’s posted good numbers in every level. I’m a believe in Dwight Smith Jr, but we’ll see. Can’t give him an A because it’s way too early, and the Villar trade. Not a C because I think the Orioles have a brighter future now than before Elias took over, however not by much. B-..
How was Asher Wojciechowski a win? Not sure how much cash they gave up but they could have pulled up a career minor leaguer and likely would have gotten similar production. 4.92 ERA with a 5.30 FIP last year. He is 31 so don’t expect a breakout. Someone else could have potentially taken that spot and run with it. They could have given Hunter Harvey another shot in the rotation.
Harvey’s shot as a starter ended in 2018. He just can’t hold up.
I can see his logic. Bundy wasn’t getting him a true A level prospect so he took 4 guys with different makeups to see if one can stick. Mattson has decent potential, likely in the bullpen, but still.
He seems to really go for quantity on the pitching side, which is understandable if you don’t have the pieces to trade for true quality.
Sucks his ownership group basically froze Latin America out for so long. He’ll have a lot of ground to make up there.
I gave him a C. Nothing stands out. Didn’t really move any big pieces to acquire big prospects, just mid to low level moves that could pay off down the road. Getting four guys for Bundy was good and getting something for Cashner as well.
What pieces on the Orioles would bring back a big prospect? Their best player by far is Mancini, and bat-first corner types don’t fetch much on the market, anyway. It’s like getting a $5 allowance from your parents and trying to buy a car with it. There just wasn’t much he could do.
Did I ever say that they had pieces to move? There’s just no way he can get a positive grade right now until we find out how good those mid to low level prospects he acquired are. That’s why I gave him a neutral grade of C.
There’s nothing great, and nothing bad about any of those moves, and as such, it’s hard to justify anything beyond a C. I do think he went early on Dylan Bundy – I would’ve liked to see him wait on Bundy a bit longer and see if a team comes calling. More than likely, the overall quality of the package wasn’t going to get better, what with Bundy’s recent history, but maybe you pick up some sort higher upside lottery ticket.
What he gets for Mancini/Givens will matter, but in the end, it’s how he rebuilds the system that will define his tenure. There simply aren’t the high level pieces to net the big returns. Maybe Givens might.
Sure wish Yaz wasn’t dealt, but depth was what they were after with most of these actions, not stars.
He is working a rebuild. Saving money on Bundy/Villar has to be considered. The Os were at zero when he took over in terms on technology used to develop players. Both the prospect return and how salary relief has been used must be considered. International signings are one use, but investing the salary relief into a player development infrastructure is the other piece that has to be considered. That is were a ton of the Os capital has been spent. In theory Money saved on Bundy/Villar/etc fund those investments and will pay off long term. If you buy the Astros/Rays/Cards/etc have advantages over the league in player development he gets a B for focusing on building it. If not, then much lower.
So why has everyone already given up on Easton Lucas (the pitcher acquired for Villar)? The guy has less than 35 IP for his professional career.