The 2010 amateur draft officially launched the pro careers of several of the modern game’s biggest stars, and since we’re almost a decade removed from that draft class, it seems like a natural time to look back at what ended up being a particularly fascinating draft in hindsight.
Of course, it’s very easy to pick apart any draft with the benefit of years of hindsight, which is why we’re stopping short of any full mock redraft. First off, given the long period of minor league seasoning that every prospect requires and the fact that virtually every team deploys a “take the best player available” approach, it’s hard to look back at each team’s 2010 roster and try to re-draft by positional needs at the time. Secondly, that long minor league process is such a major element in how a player develops, it’s quite possible that any of the superstars at the top of this list might have fallen into obscurity (to say nothing of an injury or some other random setback) had they come up in another organization’s farm system.
So in short, perhaps the simplest method is just to list the top 43 players from 2010 by bWAR, stopping at the somewhat arbitrary cutoff point of 3.0 bWAR. (The actual 2010 first round consisted of a whopping 50 players, thanks to an unusually long 18-pick sandwich round of compensatory picks, as per the old Type A/Type B free agent designation system). We will also only be listing the drafted players who actually signed with their teams, so such notables as 546th overall pick Kris Bryant or 935th pick Aaron Judge aren’t included.
As a refresher, here’s a list of the actual first round of the 2010 draft. As a further reminder of how the draft is in many ways a crapshoot, consider that of the 50 real life first-rounders, 18 never reached the big leagues, and 13 have yet to generate anything beyond a replacement-level 0.0 bWAR at the Major League level. The Rays had three first-round picks (Josh Sale, Justin O’Conner, Drew Vettleson) who never made it to the Show, yet they struck gold on a future Gold Glove winner in the 31st round.
1. 45.3 bWAR: Chris Sale (13th overall, White Sox)
2. 36.7 bWAR: Manny Machado (3rd, Orioles)
3. 36.3 bWAR: Andrelton Simmons (70th, Braves)
4. 35.5 bWAR: Jacob deGrom (272nd, Mets)
5. 31.8 bWAR: Christian Yelich (23rd, Marlins)
6. 31.8 bWAR: Bryce Harper (1st, Nationals)
7. 25.7 bWAR: Kevin Kiermaier (941st, Rays)
8. 19.3 bWAR: Adam Eaton (571st, Diamondbacks)
9. 18.4 bWAR: J.T. Realmuto (104th, Marlins)
10. 17.2 bWAR: Yasmani Grandal (12th, Reds)
11. 15.7 bWAR: Noah Syndergaard (38th, Blue Jays)
12. 15.7 bWAR: Kole Calhoun (264th, Angels)
13. 13.3 bWAR: Whit Merrifield (269th, Royals)
14. 13.3 bWAR: James Paxton (132rd, Mariners)
15. 13.0 bWAR: Corey Dickerson (260th, Rockies)
16. 10.9 bWAR: Joc Pederson (352nd, Dodgers)
17. 10.8 bWAR: Drew Pomeranz (5th, Indians)
18. 10.7 bWAR: Eddie Rosario (135th, Twins)
19. 10.3 bWAR: Matt Harvey (7th, Mets)
20. 9.7 bWAR: Nicholas Castellanos (44th, Tigers)
21. 9.2 bWAR: Drew Smyly (68th, Tigers)
22. 8.9 bWAR: Aaron Sanchez (34th, Blue Jays)
23. 8.9 bWAR: Jedd Gyorko (59th, Padres)
24. 8.8 bWAR: Robbie Ray (356th, Nationals)
25. 8.5 bWAR: Evan Gattis (704th, Braves)
26. 8.2 bWAR: Jameson Taillon (2nd, Pirates)
27. 6.7 bWAR: Adam Duvall (348th, Giants)
28. 6.1 bWAR: Mark Canha (227th, Marlins)
29. 6.0 bWAR: Alex Claudio (826th, Rangers)
30. 6.0 bWAR: Addison Reed (95th, White Sox)
31. 5.8 bWAR: A.J. Griffin (395th, Athletics)
32. 5.8 bWAR: Taijuan Walker (43rd, Mariners)
33. 5.7 bWAR: Michael Lorenzen (221st, Rays)
34. 5.6 bWAR: Sam Dyson (126th, Blue Jays)
35. 5.3 bWAR: Delino DeShields Jr. (8th, Astros)
36. 5.2 bWAR: Vince Velasquez (58th, Astros)
37. 5.2 bWAR: Derek Dietrich (79th, Rays)
38. 4.9 bWAR: Mike Foltynewicz (19th, Astros)
39. 3.8 bWAR: Tyler Thornburg (96th, Brewers)
40. 3.8 bWAR: Jimmy Nelson (64th, Brewers)
41. 3.3 bWAR: Greg Garcia (229th, Cardinals)
42. 3.2 bWAR: Brandon Workman (57th, Red Sox)
43. 3.0 bWAR: Chad Bettis (76th, Rockies)
A few more observations….
- It’s fun to imagine a world where the Nationals follow up drafting Stephen Strasburg with the #1 overall pick in 2009 with another ace in Chris Sale in 2010, though Harper was widely considered the top player available a decade ago. Many scouts at the time felt Sale was a risk for a future arm injury, which led to his drop to the White Sox at the 13th overall spot. While Sale recently went under the knife for a Tommy John procedure, his decade of near Cooperstown-level performance made his selection of the best picks in White Sox history.
- The Blue Jays still end up with Noah Syndergaard in this reality, as the Jays had the 11th overall pick of the 2010 draft. Syndergaard was the headliner of a four-prospect package sent by Toronto to the Mets in December 2012 in the trade that brought R.A. Dickey to the Jays.
- Even in the modern era of heavy player movement, it stands out that so few of the players on the list are still with the teams that originally drafted them. DeGrom, Kiermaier, Merrifield, Pederson, and Rosario are the only players in the top 25 who are still playing with their original teams, and Pederson came seemingly within a hair of being dealt to the Angels this past offseason.
- Upon seeing Matt Harvey in the 19th spot on this list, Mets fans may immediately question the logic of re-ordering the draft solely by bWAR. Needless to say, in a strict re-draft, Harvey would certainly drop a lot lower given the uncertainty surrounding his future. That said, Harvey’s solid bWAR total is perhaps a reminder of just how good the Dark Knight was before injuries curtailed his status as one of baseball’s top pitchers.
- Left-hander Dean Kiekhefer, the 1099th overall pick, was the lowest-drafted player to reach the majors. Kiekhefer climbed from the 36th round to appear in 30 MLB games with the Cardinals (his drafting team) and Athletics from 2016-18.
Not a Yankee on the list drafted by them and Paxton will have only pitched one season combined.
Either asleep at the switch or better allocation of money elsewhere.
True, their first round pick of Cito Culver was a crap pick but in this scenario they would have landed Taijuan Walker at 32.
Bryce Harper (per his contract) is so damn overrated.
Its so easy for people outside of Philly to say that, but Harper was a marketing sensation that probably paid back a decent little percentage of his contract via ticket sales and merch before he even suited up for his first spring training AB.
Harper is definitely a 25.3M/year player, which is his AAV salary.
I dunno….he leaves D.C., does nothing on the team he joins, and the team he leaves wins the World Series…..
good old correlation = causation
Harper did nothing on the Phillies in 2019? .882 OPS. 125 OPS+. 4.3 WAR. 35 HR. 114 RBI. That’s a whole lot of nothing.
Acuna and Soto laugh at those stats and the salary difference
Exactly, if those stats are “nothing”, I’d sign up for that nothing because I dig the long ball.
Harpers cap hit is 27.5 and you have to factor it a little higher as the later years are obv going to be sunk so your going to want to get a 30+ mill dollar value in his prime-
Yes he does provide back money to the PhIllies with marketing but if your going to dump that money back into giving Mccuthch 20 mill each over the next 2 years is it really “true” at that point
Philly went from wide ope payroll to yikes its getting cramped in here really really quick…. Not the way ida built it up
It has the feeling of hanging a nice picture up to cover the hole in the wall behind it org
One of the worst opinions in baseball. Getting prime Harper for a 25 million AAV is a good deal.
Prime Harper doesn’t help his team win games.
care to explain how that makes any sense?
His career OPS+ is 137 and has never even got close to leauge average. Please back up your dinosaur takes with a stat.
oh absolutly. but he’s a huge ticket draw and has a lot of abilities that go beyond the box score, so its really not a bad contract. he’s overrated for sure, but hardly terrible.
Top 5 best and worst draft picks by teams would be a good series.
Top 5 best and worst international free agent signings would be a good list too.
Top 5 best and worst trades by teams
Top 5 best and worst free agent signings
Trips down memory lane and introducing younger fans to older team history could be a fun series.
Second this
Another bad year for the Cubbies. Hayden Simpson who wasn’t on ANY draft boards went to the cubs with the 16th pick. Hendry tried to act like he was the next Tim Lincecum. Amazing how cheap the Tribune was with the draft. Thank goodness Baez was a high schooler willing to sign for anything.
I remember that draft. The story I remember coming out was that literally on draft day, Crane Kenney comes into the room and tells the staff their draft budget was reduced (I think by half) so they ended up going with Simpson (who they liked and would have taken later maybe) earlier because he’d be cheap.
I can’t seem to find the article that details it, but it still stuck with me.
Over a third (15 of 43) would fall outside a 5-round draft.
There are going to be some fantastic choices/diamonds-in-the-rough to be found if MLB goes that route.
Imagine deGrom, Eaton, Merrifield, to name a few, going undrafted?
“Five is the fewest number of rounds the clubs are allowed to draft this year, per a March agreement with the Players Association governing the sport during the COVID-19 shutdown. That agreement lays out other conditions for the draft, including signing bonuses that will be equivalent to 2019.
After the fifth round, teams can sign an unlimited number of undrafted players for a maximum bonus of $20,000.” -Ken Rosenthal
There is nothing keeping teams from acquiring more than five players.
20,000 is garbage money though. lots of talented players might step away from the game in favor of more profitable avenues
You’re right that’s not much money. It just depends on how badly they want to play.
I don’t think you understand how the MLB draft works.
Teams don’t draft based on talent a lot of times they draft based on the ability to sign the player after the first round.
Sometimes very talented players went in the 15th round
2010 was the time when a team could offer as much as they wanted to players drafted wherever
This year…
I have no idea. College Baseball is preparing for a lot of players to stick with their commitments.
I have a feeling you may not see many major league teams draft high school players
You’re going to have a lot of high school players walk away from baseball because the signing bonuses are so low, and because scholarships for college ball won’t be available because juniors and seniors who might have gone pro will stay in college.
Use that same imagination to see guys like deGrom, Eaton, and Merrifield not ever getting a chance because they went undrafted and ending up coaching HS baseball instead of playing in the majors. Between a shorter draft and fewer MILB teams, it’s somewhat likely that those diamonds in the rough will never be unearthed in the future,
Totally incorrect.
College Baseball is much better than hanging out in the low minors for 3 years.
Teams can still sign undrafted players this year.
HS players have four choices if not drafted
College
JUCO
signing a small contract
Independent Baseball
I see for players who have played 4 years of College Baseball but like I said those players can still sign with teams for a small contract if they want
Only having 5 rounds isn’t hurting anyone.
Actually could really help teams with great scouting departments.
that’s not true if you’re a high school guy who is getting overslot money. and for what it’s worth you havent tried both so i dont see why your opinion on the matter – because its absolutly an opinion and not a fact – really means much here.
You cannot say “totally incorrect” to a clearly stated imaginary statement about what might happen in the future. My thinking is just as correct as yours, because both answer are purely what we think MIGHT happen. Your opinion is no more valid than mine.
If I am a senior in college I don’t have any eligibility left…
I believe the NCAA are going to allow these players an extra year
Usually…
I am going to take the signing bonus and play minor league ball.
Look at these players you mention signing bonus.
You have zero leverage as a senior in college.
I believe DeGrom was drafted as a junior anyway.
He could have went back for his senior year
But to say only having 5 rounds is somehow going to force future great players to walk away from baseball is incorrect.
Players have leverage as juniors…
Have some leverage as HS players.
Signing bonus are slated by draft pick now.
But most players being drafted aren’t getting 6 digit bonuses when they are drafted in the 10th round or lower anymore.
Back in the day they were because you didn’t have rules so teams would back the truck up to HS players who were drafted late that teams were questioning if they were going to play college ball or not.
I wish the NBA and mlb would do a Mr. irrelevant
As good as Simmons is, I would definitely rather have Harper.
even with his additude?
what attitude? i admit that was one of the reasons i didnt like him at first, but seeing him on Philly showed that he’s matured beyond that at this point.
Colon will always be an albatross around Dayton Moore’s neck…
I know it’s simply listed by WAR, but Simmons over the peaks of DeGrom & Yelich is just distracting
This certianly does show re-drafting by WAR would be a terrible way to go about it.
great lack of Phillies picks on here. smh why cant this team draft
I’m curious how high Taillon climbs this list without injury. I know the same could be said about a lot of players, but it is kind of crazy to consider that just adding two healthy seasons of 3.0war to Taillon’s stats lands him in the Top 15.
Machado or Simmons holding down SS for 4-5 years would have made the Buccos a lot more competitive and could have snagged a strong haul in a trade (bc we all know an extension is laughable here). We might be talking about a very different Pirates team during McCutchen’s wasted prime years.
id say good health alone may double Taillon’s WAR, and that doesn’t even include all the potential growth that playing for ~2-3 more years in the Majors provides
WAR or no WAR, if were redrafting then there’s no way Simmons goes before DeGrom
Matters the organization.
If I don’t have a SS in my organization that I can feel who can play 10-15 years I am drafting one.
Same with Catcher.
Catchers usually go much higher than some and teams often reach on that position.
SS isn’t that far behind.
This isn’t the NFL. MLB teams rarely/never draft based on current needs. They usually try to to pick the best player available.
You have organizational needs.
Not talking about your MLB team. But your organization.
At times the CF in AA is your organization’s #1 CF.
Majority of draft picks are based on this.
Catchers are usually drafted very high.
It is the hardest yet quickest way to professional baseball.
The Padres have both Machado and Tatis Jr long term, yet they drafted a SS #2 overall last year. Not a need, but the best available.
Another dynamic draft by the Royals.
“I participated in the 2010 draft and all I got was Chad Bettis” – t-shirt for Rockies fans
The Rox got Corey Dickerson too. They didn’t do great with their 1st rounders (Kyle Parker, Peter Tago), but plenty of teams did worse than Dickerson.
I don’t know why people are hating Bryce Harper so much, he is a star player who can provide 30+HR and 100+RBIs every year if healthy, sold a lot a jerseys and tickets for sure last year in philly and will continue to do so for the next decade.
Of course his contract isn’t that great, but is there really a free agent who signs a great deal with their new team ? A free agent contract is a bad contract as soon as it’s signed
I am not hating on him.
I think people overvalue production with OF.
A lot of great OFs
I will use this for example. Basically a point about scarcity.
If you have 10 OFs who have WAR over 7.5
Wouldn’t you say that one catcher who produces a WAR of 6.8 is more valuable than those OF if the next best catcher has a WAR of 5.
When we look at WAR we also have to look at the position itself.
Not the WAR but how it compares with the competition at the position
A 30 HR Catcher IMO who plays defense is almost 2x the value of a 30 HR OF.
I believe a SS is probably 1.5x a corner outfielder. About the same as a CF.
Hes had over 100 rbis once in his 8 year career
You do realize 58 players had 30 hrs last year in the MLB
Its….. like….not a thing…..anymore
Simple, he’s overrated and not a likeable guy.
I think if anything this is a testament on how random baseball can be and how wonderful it is that late rounds can produce quality players.
You can definitely build an impressive team from the 2010 draft class. Look at those names.
Great article Mark, thanks for putting this together. Btw, Michael Lorenzen never signed with the Rays in 2010 and therefore doesn’t qualify for this list. I would’ve liked this as a Rays fan, it looks like outside of Kiermaier this draft was terrible for them. Especially having so many picks near the top. The same for them for the 2011 draft, that was an even bigger swing and a miss!!
The hell with War
1- Degroom
2-Yeli
3- Harper
4- Sale
5- Machado
6- Grandal
What a draft class
I wish we could do it again, because that would make Christian Yelich the main prospect dealt to the Rockies in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal instead of Drew Pomeranz.
I think the shortened draft is a bad decision by baseball, especially if they continue it past 2020. It’s going to come back to bite them.
Wow. Heck of a first round!
No yankees. Hmmmmm
That’s because the player they picked in the first round never made it.