We previously revisited the No. 1 overall picks from the 1980s, the 1990s and 2000-09. Let’s now take a look at the prior decade…
2010 – Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals:
- This was an easy pick for the Nationals, who grabbed one of the most hyped prospects ever, and Harper hasn’t disappointed. Now 27 years old, Harper’s a six-time All-Star with an NL MVP and a Rookie of the Year Award to his name, though he’s no longer a National. Harper owns the largest overall free-agent contract ever – the 13-year, $330MM accord he signed with the division-rival Phillies before 2019. Between the two teams, Harper has slashed .276/.385/.512 (138 wRC+) with 219 home runs and 35.1 fWAR.
2011 – Gerrit Cole, SP, Pirates:
- Speaking of record contracts, Cole scored a nine-year, $324MM deal with the Yankees this past winter, making him the highest-paid pitcher ever. The flamethrower got there by combining for a 3.22 ERA in 1,195 innings between Pittsburgh and Houston from 2013-19. The low-budget Pirates, unable to retain Cole for the long haul, sent him to the Astros prior to the 2018 campaign for what hasn’t been a great return thus far. Nevertheless, it’s unlikely they regret taking Cole No. 1 nine years ago.
2012 – Carlos Correa, SS, Astros:
- This is yet another smash success from the previous decade’s drafts. While injuries have troubled Correa of late, he’s one of the most valuable shortstops in baseball when he takes the field, having batted .277/.356/.489 (129 wRC+) with 102 homers and 18.5 fWAR over 2,362 plate appearances.
2013 – Mark Appel, SP, Astros:
- Unlike the Correa pick, this selection didn’t work out for the Astros. Appel, who still hasn’t pitched in the majors, went one pick before Cubs superstar Kris Bryant. But the Astros did get value from Appel when they dealt him and others to the Phillies in 2015 for reliever Ken Giles, who had his moments with the club from 2016-18. Appel, meanwhile, stepped away from baseball in February 2018. It’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll pitch professionally again.
2014 – Brady Aiken, SP, Astros:
- Three straight No. 1 picks for the Astros. They’ve come a long way since then, but Aiken didn’t play a role in their recent success. The team failed to sign Aiken, but its inability to do so turned into a 2015 compensatory pick (No. 2) that it used on Alex Bregman. Safe to say that worked out well. Aiken re-entered the draft and went 17th to the Indians in ’15, but he hasn’t played in the majors yet, and like Appel, he isn’t sure if he ever will.
2015 – Dansby Swanson, SS, Diamondbacks:
- Swanson, who came off the board one pick before Bregman (oops), never actually played for the Diamondbacks. They traded him, outfielder Ender Inciarte and righty Aaron Blair to Atlanta in a 2015 deal that brought Shelby Miller to Arizona (MLBTR’s George Miller recently revisited that swap). Swanson hasn’t blossomed into a star at the MLB level, though, as the owner of a .245/.318/.385 line (81 wRC+) with 3.9 fWAR in 1,774 trips to the plate.
The rest:
- For the most part, it’s too soon to assess these players. Outfielder Mickey Moniak went No. 1 to the Phillies in 2016, but he hasn’t gotten past the Double-A level yet. If the Phillies had a do-over, they’d probably take Pete Alonso (64), Bo Bichette (66) or Shane Bieber (122), to name a few who have turned into major league standouts from that draft class. A year later, shortstop Royce Lewis went to the Twins at No. 1. Righty Casey Mize became a Tiger with the top pick in 2018, and catcher Adley Rutschman joined the Orioles with the first selection last summer. Lewis, Mize and Rutschman are still regarded as premium prospects. We’ll see how they fare if and when they appear at the sport’s highest level.
bUt SwAnSoN iS tHe BeSt sHoRtStOp iN BaSeBaLl.
-braves fans
said no one ever
Lol I know. He’s Everyone’s favorite player there. Even the male Brave fans think he’s hot.
Do they actually like him more than Acuna, Albies and Freeman?
It’s Atlanta… of course a hot guy is the favorite. Regardless of sex
I see what you did there
@ Dixon Mias: That’s not true. I was and still am hoping the Braves trade him. Hes shown flashes of being above average but I’m not buying it. Everytime I’ve been to a game and see him strikeout or lightly ground out; you can see the pain in my eyes… but then some randomn fangirl sees my anguish and quickly reminds me that it’s okay that Dansby is mediocre because his hair is amazing.
I’m a Braves fan, and I don’t consider him the best SS in baseball.
The great thing though is he’s young. Sometimes it really takes years for things to click, like how a division rival to the north took years to figure out how to avoid choking in the playoffs. Just saying.
The Atlanta MLBers were founded around the time of the Mayflower Compact and yet have three whole championships in their history. It’s hilarious that you’re lobbing stones at the Nats from your glass house. Just saying.
I’ve never seen that. People really love him for being clutch and even call Culberson fake dansby because they are basically twins..
That said, I miss Andrelton.
I love this series. It always amazes me just what a crap shoot the draft is.
Baseball is the hardest of all the drafts to nail because there’s no such thing as a “ready now” player. (I know there’s been a few to make the jump) You’re usually looking at 2-4 years of development after the pick, so you’re projecting your projections. It’s also the lone draft where need should never matter. Always in best player available mode.
There are ready now players. They’re just rare. Chris Sale, Brandon Finnegan, and Mike Leake come to mind
Sale is the only good example. Finnegan has bounced up and down Bc he’s had a rough time at the major league level, probably Bc he needed to start in the minors a little while before coming up so young. And Leake has been a fine major league pitcher, but who knows what he could have done had he had more time in the minors to fine tune his craft instead of being thrown to the wolves. So aside from trying to prove a perfect valid comment false, your comment is not only wrong, but pointless.
Mike Leake was never going to be an ace. His draft stock was high because he was a for sure 3-4 rotation starter. Mike finnegan had a good start to his career, but he’s been hampered by injuries.
@Dixon Mias I said I was aware that does happen, but it’s like a few drops of water in the ocean when you compare the amount that go from the draft to The Show vs minor leagues.
And just because players go to the show doesn’t mean they find success. Leake and Sale are just two players.
Jim Abbot, Dave Winfield, and John Olerud come to mind, too.
Hockey is much more of a crapshoot as projecting their potential is extremely difficult at that age.
I’m gonna disagree with you there. Top NHL draft picks, regardless of age, tend to come into the league immediately and compete at high levels. Top MLB picks are still a coin flip on whether or not they even contribute at the major league level. And every pick from 1 on down, the curve drops exponentially. Much harder to predict baseball.
Sure because you say so. Top picks can not step right in and compete at high levels, elite picks can but they’re not too frequent. Top 5 picks might have a chance, outside of that it’s difficult. Go through all of the 1st rounds over the years and you’ll see many kids that never made it.
Numbers found back up my thoughts.
NHL: “63% of first round picks played but less than 25% of second round picks survived and only 12% of third rounder selections.”
MLB : First-round picks who don’t make it are the exception. From 1981 to 2010, 73 percent of first-round picks reached the majors. In 2004, only two of the 29 first-round picks who signed failed to make the majors—a 93 percent success rate that will be hard to beat.
But that success rate drops off quickly. By the second round, the rate of players who reach the majors dips to 51 percent. In the third round, 40 percent are eventually going to be major leaguers. From there it continues to steadily dip.”
Lmao. I wondered why polish hammer left out the time frame from the NHL but not MLB…..
Cause the data they’re using for NHL is from 1990 to 1999.
https://guelphstorm.com/odds-not-great-for-nhl-draft-picks
Lmao comparing 10 years of NHL drafts to 30 years of MLB drafts proves nothing.
But if those are numbers you want to “stick” with.
NFL has both NHL and MLB beat with a 53% success rate for first round picks.
If we are arbitrarily picking time frames I choose 2011-2017
https://theriotreport.com/scout-camp-2018-about-the-author/
You are comparing the stats of the players who reached the majors with the number of players who “survived”. What does that word even mean in this context?
You do an inordinate amount of lmaoing. Please stop.
Making it to the MLB does not make you a success. Two thirds of the “players to make the MLB” only play a hand full of games and never make any meaningful money or are simple bench players. Your arguments should be based on some actual impact on the game rather than a large percentage being AAAA players.
Sorry genius but 100% of NFL draft picks make it to the league. If not then please enlighten with the long list of 1st rounders that NEVER played in the NFL.
lmao The stats I plugged in where the 1st things I found with a simple google search….lmao
lmao, I hardly doubt the numbers shifted that much in that time…lmao
Lmao. Twice in one comment.
Lmao.
Lmao. So you can’t prove anything you said. Lmao.
Lmao. So you don’t know how to accurately use statistics. Lmao.
Lmao. Don’t cite things you can’t back up. lmao.
lmao SuReThInGToOlBaG. lmao
It also amazes me when some of these guys deliver on the hype. Bryce in particular has more or less been everything we expected and more, even if he’ll never live up to that contract.
It’s amazing that the Astros are so good after how comically they botched their last two #1 overall picks of the last decade.
By refusing to sign Aiken, that one’s more half-botch, half savvy
Don’t mind him, he just read the names and didn’t bother to read that they got Bregman Bc of that pick. Since he’s trying to comment without knowing what he’s talking about, it’s more difficult for him to be accurate.
It’s not like they were purposefully trying not to sign Aiken so they could get Bregman the next year. They just got lucky and their decision was made for them by Aiken. They still made a terrible pick with taking Aiken #1 overall.
That’s cause they cheated
How many Yankees were using steroids again? Glass houses…
Dumbest comment ever. Don’t try to deflect that your team is full of cheaters. Plenty of teams had players who did roids, your whole team cheated. Not to mention I’d much rather know which pitch is coming than having more strength.
Who needs a draft when you have a Home Depot?
I certainly haven’t read a very similar comment on every single Astros story all offseason. Unless you are going to be more creative, just stop.
Amen!
I think moniak will still be a good player. not a star, but he’s still young and has shown glimpses.
Yeah, it was an interesting pick. When he was drafted he was seen as a borderline Star. He was valued for his low floor. Probably a .270 .320 15 750OPS guy
Moniak stinks.
Should have taken senzel or Lewis
Just to recap…the Mets are a joke with Alonso, and the Phillies are geniuses for picking Moniak.
Yep, it all adds up 😎
The Mets are a joke despite Alonso…
i dont think anyone ever thought Moniak was a good choice, much less the best one.
Swanson was never going to be the star some thought he was back in 2015 and during the Shelby Miller deal. He’s a good player to be sure, and there’s definitely value having a starting caliber shortstop under team control, but he was never cut from the same cloth as Lindor, Boegarts, Seager, Correa, etc.
As a Braves fan, going forward I’d be thrilled if he has a career similar to Brandon Crawford. You’ll never find him among the top players in the game, but he’s a winning player who give you something both offensively and defensively mixed in with a few All-Star level seasons.
He’s probably a Brandon Crawford offensively. But he is no where near Crawford’s defense. Okay maybe now, because Crawford isn’t the defense wizard anymore, he’s a little bit above average, just like Swanson.
Yeah, I wasn’t comparing them directly too each other. Just that if Swanson can be something in a similar mold to Crawford’s career, I’d be content opposed to feeling as if he underperformed due to his draft and prospect pedigree.
Why they get rid of dislike button?
Has Correa really panned out so far? He has tools but health and consistency is an issue.
Well he already has a career WAR of 18.5 and he is only 25. Jeter had a 19.4 at 25 just for a comparison. Same number of seasons too.
Jeter also got in some awesome years after severely breaking his foot in his late thirties. Smoke,fire? Late career resurgence after serious injury, close friendships with PED users, playing for an organization that systematically looks the other way for PED use.
Correa might have close early career numbers but I doubt he’ll hit the Jeter level because the league has gotten a lot better at catching cheaters. That bad back will probably make Correa a woulda coulda shoulda story.
Jeter broke his ankle at the end of 2012 at the age of 38, he played in a total of 162 games after that injury (17 in 2013; 145 in 2014 – the year he retired). In those 162 games, he collected 707 plate appearances, 644 at-bats and batted a whopping .250, had an OBP hovering around .300 and slugged about the same, totaling around a .600 OPS. Must have been all that juice he was taking to put up those monster stats.
So, now with the actual facts in order, let’s discuss your comment’s stats.
Jeter got in 0 awesome years after breaking his ankle (you are batting .000). The remainder of your comment is all based on your embarrassingly flawed first sentence and is just sad sad speculation. Your Correa comments could be correct, so I’ll call that a HBP and reached base on error.
Most children can perform a google search to find these simple stats. Woulda coulda shoulda posted a better comment.
Oh sorry, Jeter, having a career year at 38, breaks his ankle when his PED juiced muscles vector his brittle old man bones past their breaking point.
Everyone knows Jeter and ARod had a falling out because ARod was mad when his PED buddy got off Scott free.
You need to grow up and smell the roses!
Shhhh…don’t say anything bad about Derek Jeter! Don’t you know that Jeter is a god and could never possibly do anything wrong? Oh, and if you mention PED’s, you MUST bring up Big Papi.
This comment is to both Ejemp & KCJ. The purpose of my comment had nothing to do about calling out blasphemy regarding Jeter, the whole point was that Ejemp based his “case for Jeter on PEDs” on an embarrassingly flawed premise (you’re off the hook KCJ). Further, Ejemp, using such fluffy language to disguise your stupidity does not work here either. You seem to be implying that Jeter had so much extra juiced muscle on him that fielding a simple ground ball became impossible for his bones to handle. For that ever to be true, a human must be well-beyond their muscular potential to have that level of stress on their bones or be taking such a high dose that the body starts stripping the bones of vitamin D and calcium. Considering Jeter was 6’3″ and 195lbs, his BMI would put him at 24.4, which comfortably classifies him in the “Normal Weight” category. If it’s the latter, why would an athlete with millions of dollars take such a high dose to put his only career in jeopardy. Again, you can look this up on Google, trust me – it’s not hard. What’s weird is that I have googled Jeter and steroids and do not see a link that “Everyone knows.” What I do see is that you really like spewing nonsense and getting off scot free. I’ll pass on the roses because it actually seems like you are smelling the pungent aroma of your own bs. Lastly, if you truly are smelling roses and they are telling you that Jeter was on roids, I think you need to see a doctor (and I don’t mean for you to look in the mirror and ask that quack what’s wrong with you).
All that just to point out the obvious- that theres no link to Jetwr and roids. Did he? Maybe, everyone from that era should be looked at suspiciously. That’s why, to me, you shouldn’t hold that against a player from going into the Hall. Look, there are already cheaters in the Hall, so to arbitrarily keep some out is just wrong. I got a copy of that.list of 104 players who tested positive back when I worked at Bleacher Report. You would be shocked at some of the names on that list.
Correa’s only once played more than 110 games in a season and the nature of his injuries, at his age, are troubling. Carlos Tulowitzki.
Also, the massage excuse? Come on, man.
Tulowitzki? You mean as in Troy? The guy who’s played in more than 120 games every season but four since 2006? That’s what you’re using as your gauge of injury prone players?
Yes. Tulo’s less-than-impressive GP totals:
2008 – 101 GP
2010 – 122 GP
2011 – 143 GP
2012 – 47 GP
2013 – 126 GP
2014 – 91 GP
2015 – 128 GP
2016 – 131 GP
2017 – 66 GP
The guy missed 514 games over the last ten years of this career – that’s over three full seasons worth of games. He’s out of baseball, specifically, because of his track record of injuries. Is there another Troy Tulowitzki I don’t know about? This is not new information.
When did 120 games (roughly 75% of the season) become the benchmark for good health?
When did more than that become the benchmark for “injury prone? What would you call the bench mark for injury prone? One IL stint per year? Two? Most players miss time every year on the IL. I’d say 120 is a pretty solid number.
Figures the Phillies picked 1st when there wasnt any good talent in the top 10
It doesn’t matter the talent taken in the top ten, Mike Trout was taken 26th. If you look down the list of the 16′ draft, there’s Gavin Lux, Ian Anderson, Bryan Reynolds, Nick Senzel, and A.J Puk just to name a few. Who knows Moniac might still be something, too soon to tell.
Still amazing the Phillies picked Moniak at 1. What a waste
There were a lot of better players to have picked than Moniak in that draft but its really only fair to say they regret passing on Senzel or Puk. Bichette, Alonso and Bieber were never going that high. The best pick of the 1st round was Lux and he was passed on by 19 teams.
id wonder if they would have drafted Lux if they picked somewhere in the 10s. his tools seemed like those that this team would value.
Even back then players knew the Astros were a low rate franchise.
I’m sure you are going to harp on the Astros for as long as it’s been since Darren Dreifort signed his contract (25 years??). Sometimes it’s good for ones mental health to just let things go….
Carlos Correa Fun Facts
– Has NEVER Hit 25 hrs in a season
– Has NEVER Gotten 160 hits in a season
– Has NEVER Scored 85 runs in a season
– Has NEVER Knocked in a 100 runs in a season
– Has NEVER Stole over 15 sbs in a season
Has hit over 280 once in 5 years
Has 2 seasons with over 5 WAR.
Has had 4 seasons with a wRC+ of 120 or higher including one season with a 152.
He has had 3 season with over a .500 slug.
He has 3 seasons with over a .350 obp.
Wanna cherry pick stats? Then pick stats that actually give an estimation of how good the player is
That was a solid replay. I couldn’t write it better myself.
Most overated player in baseball…..
Are you suggesting a 120 wrc is good? This is max kepler /Joc pederson /Jorge Polanco range hunny, lets not use stats we have no idea how relative they are!! Over 50 players cleared a 120 last year including the slugger that goes by the name of Luke Voit
Are you suggesting a 350 obp is something to highlight?
This is a good player ,Not close to a star like hes made out to be but you just highlighted that yourself didnt you!
You just laid out Joc Pederson basically good job
DarrenDreifortsContract
The astos should all be baned for life. Cowards. No one stepped up. How do they explain this to the kids in their neighbor hood? Or their own children?
Peer pressure and greed at it’s pinnacle.
Those morally poor men. All their life – CHEATER/ LIAR.
This is my game. Most my life – baseball. Those cheaters embarrassing us. Taking from us.
The shame. Life bands.
Easy to forgive. But forgetting? This hurts. Grown men cheating in baseball a whole team! They average 4million each. My gawd the tattered soul or spirit or the quality of this human. Sorry to cry in public.
Man up cry baby. Never heard so much whining in my life about a team that stole signs for around 1 month in the 2017 season. Not all players participated either. Likely less than ten according to MLB. In fact, almost every team was using electronics to steal signs prior to 2017 season, which is why MLB sent an email to general managers telling them to immediately cease. Astros GM stupidly did not forward the email to the players to make them aware they were violating policy. All aforementioned facts are from MLB. Read up if you are going to constantly whine and cry for the next 20 years and try to be correct.
Only 1 month? Where did you get that BS from? Try all of 17 (including playoffs)and some of 18. Any only ten players? As in 10 of their 13 batters on their 25-man roster?
Moniak is a bust. So will be 2/3 of the 2017-19 picks based on current stats.
Can you tell me my future too? Stop being an idiot.
I think your screen name shows who the idiot is here. We all know about the Astros. Give it a freakin rest already!
His is the screen name you’re going to jump on out of these two posts?
The best defensive SS in the NL is not Dansby Swanson; it’s Freddy Galvis (Now with Cincinnati).
I’ll take Ahmed Rosario over Swanson or Galvis!
So basically the only players to really make an impact are cole and Harper.
Imagine if the pirates gave a damn about their players and prospects They’d have a scary rotation and lineup. They got nothing for Cole. And gave up two of their best for Chris Archer whose a shell of his former self