We previously assessed the No. 1 overall draft picks of the 1990s. Let’s now take a look at how the top selections from the next decade turned out…
2000 – Adrian Gonzalez, Marlins:
- If you go by career accomplishments, this was an excellent pick. Gonzalez lasted in the majors from 2004-18, batted .287/.358/.485 with 317 home runs and 36.4 fWAR, and was a five-time All-Star. The problem for the Marlins is that the first baseman never donned their uniform. They traded Gonzalez to the Rangers in a deal for reliever Ugueth Urbina in 2003. The deal didn’t aid the Marlins over the long haul, but at least Urbina was part of their most recent World Series winner and playoff team that year.
2001 – Joe Mauer, Twins:
- Well played, Twins. The former catcher/first baseman, a Saint Paul native, is now a legendary Twin and possible Hall of Famer who played solely with the club from 2004-18 and slashed .306/.388/.439 with 143 homers and 52.5 fWAR. Mauer made six All-Star trips, won three batting titles and earned an AL MVP along the way. The eight-year, $184MM extension he signed with the Twins in 2010 remains the largest contract in franchise history.
2002 – Bryan Bullington, Pirates:
- While the Gonzalez and Mauer picks panned out, this one couldn’t have gone much worse. The right-handed Bullington combined for just 18 1/3 innings of 5.89 ERA ball with the Pirates in 2005 and ’07. He later spent time with the Indians, Royals and Blue Jays, and after failing to make his mark with those teams, Bullington established himself as an effective starter in Japan from 2011-15. He hasn’t pitched professionally since then. Painful reminder for the Pirates: Zack Greinke went five picks after Bullington.
2003 – Delmon Young, Rays:
- The effects of this pick continue to be felt today. While Young didn’t last long as a member of the Rays, with whom he played from 2006-07, they’re still benefiting from this selection. Tampa Bay traded Young to the Twins in a deal that netted them Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett, who were quite successful as Rays. They later sent Garza to the Cubs in 2011 for a package that included Chris Archer, whom they dealt to the Pirates seven years after that for now-cornerstones Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow. Young, meanwhile, was a below-average big leaguer. He played for a few teams through 2015 and accounted for minus-1.3 fWAR.
2004 – Matt Bush, Padres:
- A disaster for the Padres, as they passed on No. 2 pick Justin Verlander and never got a single contribution from Bush, who has run into serious legal troubles during his career. The Padres designated the then-shortstop for assignment five years after choosing him. However, Bush did get on track and reinvent himself as a reliever with the Rangers from 2016-18. He’s still a member of the Texas organization, but he missed last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
2005 – Justin Upton, Diamondbacks:
- Upton, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Ricky Romero, Troy Tulowitzki, Andrew McCutchen and Jay Bruce were among the top 12 picks in that year’s draft. All eight of those players went on to make at least one All-Star team (four in Upton’s case). Formerly a shortstop, Upton became a productive outfielder in Arizona from 2007-12, but the team dealt him to the Braves in a January 2013 blockbuster. Upton’s now a member of the Angels after also spending time with the Padres and Tigers. The 32-year-old’s a lifetime .266/.347/.476 hitter with 298 homers, 147 steals and 36.8 fWAR. You can’t argue with those results.
2006 – Luke Hochevar, Royals:
- Evan Longoria (No. 3), Andrew Miller (No. 6), Clayton Kershaw (No. 7), Tim Lincecum (No. 10) and Max Scherzer (No. 11) were some of the other highest picks in that draft. Hochevar paled in comparison to each of them, but after several rough seasons as a starter, the righty did become a solid reliever toward the end of his career. He was even part of the Royals’ amazing World Series-winning bullpen in 2015, ending up as the victorious pitcher in the Fall Classic-deciding Game 5 against the Mets. Hochevar pitched for just one more season after that, though, and thoracic outlet syndrome surgery helped lead to his retirement in 2018.
2007 – David Price, Rays:
- The Rays definitely got this one right. Price was tremendous in their uniform from 2008-14, a span in which he made four All-Star teams and won an AL Cy Young Award. The club later traded him to the Tigers in a deal that’s still helping out the Rays to some degree. Price, now a Dodger, went on to pitch for Toronto and Boston after his short-lived Tigers tenure. He won a World Series as a member of the Red Sox in 2018, the third season of a seven-year, $217MM contract. Back when Price signed that deal, it was a record pact for a pitcher.
2008 – Tim Beckham, Rays:
- You can’t win ’em all. Two picks before the Royals grabbed Eric Hosmer and four prior to the Giants’ selection of Buster Posey, the Rays made the mistake of going with Beckham, who hasn’t made much of an impact in the majors. The Rays ultimately cut ties with Beckham when they traded him to the Orioles for minor league pitcher Tobias Myers in 2017. Beckham spent last year with the Mariners, but he’s now a free agent after earning an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs late in 2019. He’s a career .249/.302/.431 hitter who has totaled an unimpressive 4.3 fWAR thus far.
2009 – Stephen Strasburg, Nationals [RELATED: The Nats’ Amazing Run Of First-Rounders]:
- Clearly one of the biggest success stories on this list, Strasburg debuted with great fanfare in 2010, striking out 14 Pirates in his initial start. There have been some injury troubles since then, but Strasburg, 31, has consistently performed like a front-end starter when healthy. And Strasburg was so good during the Nationals’ first-ever run to a championship last fall that he earned World Series MVP honors. The Nats then awarded him with a franchise-record seven-year, $245MM contract to prevent him from exiting via free agency. Regardless of how Strasburg performs from here, he’ll be considered one of the most important players in team history.
__
This is a hit-and-miss group. Five players became major league standouts, while the other half disappointed. Who’s the best of the bunch? It’s hard to go against Strasburg in the wake of his playoff heroics, but Gonzalez and Mauer had outstanding careers, and Upton and Price have been far above average as well.
Interesting series. That 2005 class was incredible.
The Matt Bush pick was all about being cheap. My Padres fan friends will never forgive that.
06 was incredible for pitchers minus the first overall pick, but I also am enjoying this series of articles, well done and fun to remember, even my team has yet to even have a player mentioned except for trading Chris archer for Matt Garza, but very cool and interesting
We could talk about how your team decided to take Mark Prior over Joe Mauer, Mark Texeria, David Wright, and well its a long list of productive major leaguers.
Not a Cubs fan here, but Prior was taken 2nd and Mauer 1st, so unless you know something about the draft that I don’t, I’m pretty sure the Cubs didn’t pass on Mauer.
Your magical 8-ball told you he was going to get hurt (and/or overused by the Cubs)? Prior had the best FIP, and finished 3rd in the C.Y. voting in his first full season. That the Cubs decided he should throw 234 in his first full season, doesn’t make him a bad pick.
Dusty Baker in game 5 of the 2003 NLCS is what happened to Mark Prior. I watched Mark pitch against the Cardinals on a regular basis and he would have had an amazing career. Something about throwing 150+ pitches in a single start will ruin your career, just ask Johan Santana.
2006 was close.
2005 class also included the 2006 #1 pick but he didn’t sign with the Dodgers and went back in
Truthfully I never saw the buzz around Hochevar when he was at Tennessee
I am guessing here but there are 6-7 Cy Youngs between Kershaw, Lincecum and Scherzer in that 2006 class
Actually it’s 8!
There is something to the Padres drafts of the late 90’s early 2000’s. Ben Davis (2), Sean Burroughs (9), Tim Stauffer (4). Tough misses.
It wasn’t about “being cheap.” It was about affordability and signability. The Padres just did not have the money to gamble on Jered Weaver or Stephen Drew that year, especially if whoever they tried didn’t pan out.
The best of the bunch is Joe Mauer. No one on the list is a lock for the HOF but Mauer is without a doubt the closest in my opinion. Anyway, have fun out there.
Possibly. He’s in the Hall of very good for a long time for sure. But 55 bWAR normally isn’t high enough to get you in. Strasburg will turn 31 this year, and has 33 WAR already. With a new 7 year deal and the likelihood of basically zero miles really being out on his arm this year. I could easily see him pitching till 2030.
If he is catcher only, then I would say he is a lock of the HOF. He easily ranks in the top 10 in war and above several already enshrined catchers. If he is a hybrid 1B/C, then it’s a tougher call because ~50 war is on the low side for position players. I think you forget how dominant Mauer was during the first 2/3 of his career.
Mauer is a HOFer. Maybe not first ballot, but he’ll get there.
Just like Alfonso Soriano probably would make it if he put the production that he did entirely as a second baseman.
Well Mauer had 44 WAR through his age-30 season, 11 more than Strasburg, but I do agree that Strasburg has many more left in the tank.
Since when is an oft injured pitcher forecasted as a future durable pitcher because his injuries have limited his innings to date?
Yep, He’s a HOFer. I don’t think Strasburg will get there but he could.
I would think that GMs would pick the most talented college player with the first pick as high school players have played against very little competition, are way younger and hard to project results, and in most cases still need to mature physically get an accurate idea of how good they will be …… far too risky for a first overall pick
They are all lottery tickets so best player available is the way to go. For every Mark Appel there is a Mickey Moniak. For every Strasburg there is a Correa. Theres nothing to suggest leaning one way over another.
Think you fumbled that one chief
It is risky.
Especially with pitchers.
There are some high school players who you know have all the tools, the mental ability and the maturity.
But even then you find some misses.
In terms of competition. Totally untrue.
Spent last 10-15 years around players this level.
We play the best in the South. Plus you have an even higher level than that with these showcase games that collect the talent all over the country.
High School ball is one thing but you put 5-6 teams together with the best players from Houston or Atlanta you are talking about some future professional players.
Saw last year’s #2 pick in Bobby Witt Jr.
He is elite. Going to play in the majors.
How the hell can Meadows & Glasnow be “cornerstones” after 1-1/2 injury laden seasons? So .291 avg., 33 hr’s & 89 RBI’s is a cornerstone? You gotta hit .300 & knock in over 100 RBI’s to be a cornerstone. Glasnow has had a good era with TB that he never had in Pitt; but seriously, 1-5 in 18 & 6-1 in 19. You call a pitcher a cornerstone whose 7-6 in 2 years a cornerstone? Really
Mike Trout did not hit .300 last season. Jacob DeGrom is 21-17 in the last two years. Both players are cornerstones of their franchises. Stop using dinosaur stats.
So you would rather he be subjective, vs objective then afk? Your comment suggests much less of a case than his. Nice work.
If you use batting average, RBIs and wins in 2020 as a stat or think DeGrom and Trout aren’t franchise players you are lost in the times. These are all facts that don’t need to be explained.
I did not know that Glasnow was playing all 9 positions on the field when he pitched…..
I also didn’t know that Meadows could just summon base runners when he was up to bat to give himself multi-RBI opportunities.
Nice baiting with those RBI’s and W’s, Bro!
Would love to see the net WAR on this TB lineage from the D. Young selection. Probably 50+ at this point, trending toward 70 when decisions are made on Glasnow/Meadows…..I mean we’ll be talking a near 25 year string on acquisitions rooted in 1 pick….
Well done guys; I am also enjoying this series and love that you guys are consistently putting up quality and engaging material in this unfortunate freeze. I don’t think I am speaking only for myself, but I am thankful for the few breaks of monotony I get each day when I refresh the MLBTR page. One thing that these articles made me think about is that the 2009 Angels picked Randal Grichuk exactly one pick before Mike Trout-which was really a formality since they had back-to-back picks-but it is still funny that, considering the outcome, they chose to “honor” Grichuk” above Trout. It also makes me wonder who Trout might have gone to if the Angels had not had that extra draft pick that year (as much credit as they are given for drafting him, even they did not have him first on their draft board). I know the Yanks had him high on their draft board, but they gave the Angels that pick for signing Tex, Arggg…..
Trout was second on the Angels draft board, behind only Strasburg. They chose Grichuk before him because of slot values.
Cool. I did not know that. Was there really that much of a difference between the two picks slot value?
Dead right Bruce. I think there was an article on MLBTR (or at least a link) about this… pause… scout about a bit…
espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26864123 (so not mlbtr at all)
But one way or the other he was going to the Angels – had they NOT had consecutive picks I think the gist of the article is that they’d have taken Trout over Grichuk…
Great player – Trout that is – I just wish he played in a different division.
Or perhaps a completely different sport.
Only 11 more years and he will of course sign with the A’s as a free agent in 2032….
It’s amazing how everyone had Mike Trout so high on their boards AFTER he became a star. Go back and look up a 2009 mock MLB draft or better yet one of those quick analyses following the draft. Mike Trout was not being compared to the best players of all time. I can’t remember if it was SI or Sporting News, but one of them said if all things worked out well for Mike Trout, he would be a poor man’s Aaron Rowand.
The draft is nothing but a crap shoot.
Yup I remember the Aaron Rowand comp was said by many sources-
He was a good/great player but your correct lotta Monday Morning Qbs in here
LOL, I did the same thing.. The mocks that I could find, were not overly sympathetic to Trout. It’s like another recent MLB-R article about the RS taking Judge instead of Ball. It’s a waste of time to imagine what-ifs, if the players weren’t close in rankings.
The 2001 class, except for Mauer and Teixeira, was awful
Eh…. there were some other decently productive players in the draft. Unless you’re talking about just the first round because then yeah, God awful.
Yeah i was just referencing round one
David Wright was pretty good. Mark Prior had a short career but was a stud when healthy.
Great article. Love stuff like this. Especially when you trace back a trade like Deleon Young to show how it’s still Benefiting the Rays
2002 went terrible for the Pirates. They passed on Greinke, yes, but also quality arms like Cole Hamels, Scott Kazmir, Matt Cain, and a big bat in Prince Fielder. Then they blew it in the 2nd round when they had the first pick and passed on Joey Votto, John Lester, and Brian McCann for a guy who didn’t make it. Brutal.
As long as the current ownership stays in place, the Bucs are doomed. Pity. PNC Park is the most scenic venue in all of baseball. Pittsburgh fans are intense, so no doubt in my mind that if the boss spends some cheese and puts a good team on the field,, the fans will come in droves.
Bucs have a few guys on the way up who look like they’ll be good MLB players. However, not so sure about the young pitching. Injuries or poor coaching have derailed most, at least while they were wearing the gold and black.
Not sure who plays in which division this year, but if the Pirates are in the revamped Central, it’s gonna be real tough to make the playoffs even with expanding them to include 14 teams.
My Phillies haven’t done all that well with first round picks. Moniak (#1 0verall pick) looks like he might end up as a fourth outfielder. They’ve had a few good ones, but that could be said for every team if you look at the long history of the draft.
Dunno. But over the years, the Dodgers and Cardinals seem to get drafting more right than anyone. Marlins do a nice job spotting talent but they never keep any of it for the long haul.
And speaking of the Marlins, if MLB players want to get an idea about what it’s like playing in front of no fans, all they gotta do is dial up a Marlin.
Lol
Great article. The Pirates, my god, the Pirates.
Yet some teams tank to get the 1st pick.
What? You’re out of your mind. gtfoh!
No team would ever do that.
I know the Marlins got a World Series out of Urbina, but I’m sure there were other prospects they could have sent to get a deal done… fun to think about a Marlins team in 2004-2006, when they were decent, anchored by Miggy, Gonzo, Pierre, Lowell, Encarnacion, Castillo and Lo Duca. The money spent on Delgado could’ve been reinvested for some more pitching and Derek Lee could’ve been traded for different prospects who may have turned out better.
Strasbourg best bush worst
I’m curious… was the ‘05 class viewed as “loaded” at the time, or do we say that now because we’ve seen the top picks’ careers play out?
Enjoyed this. But saying Matt Bush “ran into serious legal troubles” is pretty charitable. Realize you don’t want to go into it in this piece but wow, this dude has quite a record. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Bush_(baseball)
Nice summary. Wow I never realized how the Rays continue to benefit from the Delmon Young trade.I quest when you’re a small market team, you gotta nail those trades.
Say what you will about Delmon Young, but he had 2 monstrous post seasons for Detroit, which included 8 homers and one MVP award.
I will never forget: The 2008 Mariners head into the last series of the year coming off a 1-14 record in their last 15, one game worse than the Nationals and in line for the #1 pick. Seattle goes on to sweep Oakland to end the year, Washington gets swept and moves up to #1, which they use to take Stephen Strasburg, the obvious #1 pick. The M’s take the obvious #2 pick Dustin Ackley, and the rest is miserable.