After earning a third straight playoff berth, the Athletics are in for an offseason of change. Longtime front office head Billy Beane might be on his way out after two-plus decades of success, while the roster could lose a handful of key free agents.
- Khris Davis, DH: $16.75MM through 2021
- Stephen Piscotty, OF: $15.5MM through 2022 (including $1MM buyout for 2023)
- Jake Diekman, RP: $4.75MM through 2021 (including $750K buyout for 2022)
This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.
- Chris Bassitt – $3.1MM / $5.6MM / $5.5MM
- Mark Canha – $5.4MM / $8.2MM / $6.1MM
- Matt Chapman – $2.9MM / $4.3MM / $2.9MM
- Tony Kemp – $900K / $1.2MM / $900K
- Sean Manaea – $4.2MM / $6.4MM / $4.7MM
- Frankie Montas – $1.6MM / $2.4MM / $1.6MM
- Matt Olson – $3.5MM / $6.4MM / $3.5MM
- Chad Pinder – $2.2MM / $2.4MM / $2.2MM
- Burch Smith – $600K / $800K / $600K
- Lou Trivino – $900K / $1.1MM / $900K
- Non-tender candidates: None
- Liam Hendriks, Marcus Semien, Tommy La Stella, Mike Minor, Yusmeiro Petit, Mike Fiers, Joakim Soria, Robbie Grossman, Jake Lamb, T.J. McFarland
The A’s have never been known as a high-spending team, but this offseason could be especially difficult in the wake of a pandemic-shortened year. The timing is terrible for an Oakland club that’s loaded with noteworthy free agents, including in its middle infield. Marcus Semien has been the A’s primary shortstop since 2015, while they acquired second baseman Tommy La Stella from the division-rival Angels before the Aug. 31 trade deadline. La Stella made a wonderful impression on the organization during his short time there, but whether the team will make a serious effort to re-sign him is unknown.
With Semien and La Stella potentially on the way out, there’s no greater need for the A’s than in their middle infield. They already opted against giving Semien a one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer off a somewhat disappointing season, leaving him unfettered heading into free agency. The A’s have made it clear that they hope to retain Semien, but it’s hard to imagine them outbidding the rest of the field. If Semien exits, where would that leave Oakland? The club could plug in Chad Pinder, but he has minimal major league experience at shortstop, and it isn’t likely to spend enough to sign Didi Gregorius or Andrelton Simmons in free agency. Similarly, a trade for Francisco Lindor or Trevor Story looks improbable. They might be a suitor for Korea’s Ha-Seong Kim, a 24-year-old who’s a candidate for a reasonably priced contract over the long haul. Otherwise, the A’s may be looking at someone like Freddy Galvis, who would only be a Band-Aid at the position.
The A’s love La Stella at the keystone. Again, though, are they going to spend to sign him? La Stella shouldn’t cost that much (something in the two-year, $14MM range sounds realistic). But if the A’s don’t retain La Stella, they’ll have some other options in free agency, including Galvis, Kolten Wong, Jonathan Schoop, Jason Kipnis, Cesar Hernandez and Marwin Gonzalez. That isn’t the most exciting bunch, but most or all of them should be within the A’s price range, and at least some look like passable starters. Of course, the A’s do have Tony Kemp, Vimael Machin and Sheldon Neuse in the fold if they decide to stick with options who are already under team control.
Aside from potentially the middle infield, the A’s don’t seem as if they’ll be all that busy on the position player front this offseason. The Matts (third baseman Chapman and first baseman Olson) have their spots locked up, as do catcher Sean Murphy and designated hitter Khris Davis. The outfield could lose Robbie Grossman to free agency, but Ramon Laureano, Mark Canha, Stephen Piscotty and Seth Brown are still in place.
Turning to the pitching side, Oakland is going to have to make moves, as it may see a few veteran hurlers depart. The rotation could say goodbye to free agents Mike Fiers and Mike Minor, though four-fifths of it does look set with Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea, Jesus Luzardo and Frankie Montas staying in the mix. That still leaves one open spot, which could go to prized prospect A.J. Puk if he battles back from a couple years of arm problems (including left shoulder surgery in September). Otherwise, Daulton Jefferies and James Kaprielian may be the A’s most realistic picks from within the organization.
Fortunately for Oakland, if it decides to search for a starter from outside, it will have several affordable choices. Free agency is loaded with veterans who should sign short-term deals, including Fiers, Minor, Cole Hamels, Mike Leake, and ex-Athletics Rich Hill, Jon Lester and Brett Anderson. It’s a long list that extends well beyond those names. On the trade front, Lance Lynn (Rangers) and Joe Musgrove (Pirates) are among possibilities the A’s could fit in from a financial standpoint.
While most spots in the A’s rotation are spoken for, the bullpen is facing a great deal of uncertainty at the outset of the offseason. Closer Liam Hendriks was one of the premier relievers in the league from 2019-20, but he’s a free agent. Oakland didn’t issue him a qualifying offer, so he figures to walk away without the team getting any compensation. Yusmeiro Petit, Joakim Soria and T.J. McFarland are alongside Hendriks on the open market. That quartet gave Oakland 90 innings in 2020, and the only member who recorded below-average numbers was McFarland. It’s going to be tough to replace that group, though an A’s bullpen that was elite this past season still has some strong holdovers in Jake Diekman, J.B. Wendelken, Lou Trivino, Jordan Weems and Burch Smith (if Smith recovers from a flexor strain). It’s also not out of the realm of possibility they’ll re-sign any of Petit, Soria or McFarland, who aren’t going to command big deals on the open market, or add at least one of the many available relievers in free agency. Even Puk could slide into a prominent bullpen role next year if he’s healthy and doesn’t secure a rotation spot.
This isn’t going to be the most thrilling offseason for the A’s, whose front office and roster could combine to lose a few important figures. The A’s have consistently been in the hunt in recent years despite their small budget, though, and there is still quite a bit of talent on hand for the reigning AL West champions. However, Beane (if he doesn’t go elsewhere) and general manager David Forst may have to pull off some shrewd moves in the coming months to keep Oakland at the head of its division in 2021.
Losing Semien and Hendricks should be a downer for both of a’s fans.
Statman is the same guy that said the Giants would win a world series and dodgers will finish last.
This joke is incredibly tired. I won’t even mention your poor grammar.
Can you fix this sentence? You put ‘still’ twice. Please & thank you.
“It’s going to be tough to replace that group, though an A’s bullpen that was elite this past season ‘still still’ has some strong holdovers in Jake Diekman, J.B. Wendelken, Lou Trivino, Jordan Weems and Burch Smith (if Smith recovers from a flexor strain).”
Looks perfect! Thanks Connor!
Bassitt’s number have to be wrong
That Kris Davis deal isn’t looking too good. They’re better off when they’re being “cheap”.
I think there’s a trade in here the Pirates can make with the A’s. The A’s are losing a handful of relief pitchers they’ve relied on in the past few years, and the Pirates have Richard Rodriguez coming off a nice bounceback season. He’s also projected by MLBTR to make only ~$1 million in arbitration this year.
I remember they also liked Adam Frazier last offseason and there were rumors of catching prospect Jonah heim in the deal.
The offense was not good last year so there is a lot of improvement to happen next year. The starting pitching will get probably a free agent signing because they always get a vet in the starting staff. Losing their closer is a big loss for the team. Not sure who will fill that role.
Probably go cheap and just make deikman closer, then fill the gaps with lower tier free agent relievers. Trivino stepping up would be huge but he’s so inconsistent despite great stuff. Also deikman issue with control and walks is worrisome. They did get unexpected production from Burch smith, Jordan weems. My guess is puk or one of their other injury history sp prospects like Holmes, kaprelian, etc are part of reliever mix
I think that still makes for a solid team. I’m sure they will make another splash at trade deadline too
They will sign some old closer cheap for the role unless they put AJ Puk in the role trying to preserve his arm.
Making Puk a power LHP closer doesn’t sound like the worst thing either
Piscotty contract hurts.
Nah, he has a super team-friendly contract
Chief Two Hands
Does the Oakland outlook, approach, plan, ever really change?
Mildly. And it has nothing to do w lack of funds. They’ve made plenty in collective bargaining over the years along w additional playoff revenue. In recent years there attendance has been much better too.
The current condition of market doesn’t make them scared or more cautious; they’ll just continue to conduct business as usual and do it better than 25+ other teams
Well put. I would add the A’s will keep an eye on a new stadium deal. They will need private money to build it so the books need to be in order.
What outlook? 10 years of futility without the president and no money!
I love trolls! My daughter’s favorite is Princess Poppy 😛
Semien’s down year is a blessing in disguise. They won the division and he raked in the playoffs, so they got all the offense they needed from him anyway. If they can do 2/28 for Semien and just give 2B to Pinder I’ll be happy. Work out a minor league deal for Cespedes just for fun! Also great to see Bassitt mature into a bonafide star.
If Pinder played 2B everyday, with an occassional spell from Kemp, he’d probably hit .240 with 25 HR from the 8 spot, not bad!
A’s outlook forever and always: Trade everyone away, Rebuild, Lose in ALDS, complain about not having a new stadium, Repeat.
It’s a lot of fun watching them pop champagne as they make the playoffs every other year (for the past 20+ years)
If they A’s do nothing more than sign Semien at a 2/28 deal and some 5th starter (Hill/Fiers), they are still looking good for 2021 and beyond –
1 – Semien, SS – .250 25 HR
2 – Laureano, CF – .260 20 HR
3 – Canha, LF – .265 25 HR
4 – Olson, 1B – .245 35 HR
5 – Davis, DH – .247 35 HR
6 – Chapman, 3B – .245 35 HR
7 – Piscotty, RF – .260 20 HR
8 – Pinder, 2B – .240 25 HR
9 – Murphy, C – .245 22 HR
Bassitt, Luzardo, Montas, Manaea, Hill/Fiers/whoever
Diekman (CL), Wendelken, Puk, Trivino, Smith, Weems
Gotta suck to be an A’s fan. All that great young talent and.. nothing.. Always seem to have great young pitching prospects but they seem to either get hurt or disappoint. Owner is as cheap as they come, so good luck.
Yah, it stinks being the fan of a team that has won the 3rd most games in MLB in the last 20 years. Must be awful to be in the hunt for the World Series more often than not.
A’s are one of the best run teams in the sport. Being a fan must actually be pretty sweet.
Cosmodeus, you are right for the most part. It’s been up and down for most of the last 20 years but the winning seasons and the playoff experiences have been great. I like the fact that they don’t do everything by the book. That said, when they got rid of Cespedes that was a bit of a low point after 2012. But then there’s always a new crop of great players and a surprisingly well-constructed team. And the long streak of not getting out of the first round of the playoffs that they broke this year, while a bummer, is a nice problem to have.
You said “The A’s have never been known as a high-spending team.”
Let’s not forget the A’s had the highest payroll in all of baseball in 1991.
I think they should move Montas to the closer role. Sign Lastella and a veteran SP.