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Archives for November 2020

Notes From The Angels’ GM Search

By Mark Polishuk | November 13, 2020 at 8:05am CDT

The Angels concluded their search for a new general manager yesterday, announcing that former Braves assistant GM Perry Minasian had been signed to a four-year contract to run the Halos’ front office.  At least 20 candidates reportedly interviewed for the position, and while several names had already been linked to the Angels, some other previously unknown executives were also on the Angels’ radar.

Dodgers assistant GM Jeff Kingston wasn’t just interviewed, but was also a finalist for the job, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports (via Twitter).  Previous reports cited Minasian and Mariners assistant GM Justin Hollander as the last two candidates under consideration, so it seems like Kingston may have one of the next group of finalists that also included Cubs senior VP of player personnel Jason McLeod and Diamondbacks assistant GMs Amiel Sawdaye and Jared Porter.

Perhaps best known for serving as the Mariners’ interim GM for the month between the Jack Zduriencik and Jerry Dipoto eras, Kingston is a familiar face in Southern California baseball.  He began his career as an intern in the Padres’ front office and rose to the position to director of baseball operations over nine seasons in San Diego before joining the Mariners in 2009.  Kingston remained in Seattle even after Dipoto took over as general manager, with Kingston receiving a promotion to assistant GM and vice president.  Kingston has spent the last two years working for the Dodgers.

Kingston fit the mold of many of the Angels’ candidates — well-regarded younger executives who were looking for their first opportunity to run a front office.  However, the Angels also explored making a big splash by poaching experienced names, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Halos asked for permission to speak with Rays GM Erik Neander, Athletics GM David Forst, and Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti.  The Rays declined the Angels’ request to talk to Neander, though it may have been a moot point since “Neander does not wish to leave the [Tampa] organization.”

Forst and Antonetti “had personal reasons for not wanting to pursue the Angels’ opening” and are also “happy in their current jobs,” though Rosenthal left open the possibility that either Forst or Antonetti could be receptive if either were approached by the Mets for their vacant president of baseball operations position.  Former Marlins GM Michael Hill is the only known person to interview with the Mets thus far, but Forst, Antonetti, and a host of other candidates have been speculated as possibilities for what seems to be one of the most attractive job openings in baseball.  As Rosenthal noted, Forst has ties with Mets president Sandy Alderson, who worked as a senior advisor in Oakland for the last two seasons.

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Cleveland Guardians Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Dodgers Oakland Athletics Tampa Bay Rays Chris Antonetti David Forst Erik Neander

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Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

By Connor Byrne | November 12, 2020 at 10:10pm CDT

Even though they finished under .500 for the first time since 2014, the Astros still found a way to overcome key injuries and make it to their fourth consecutive ALCS this year. However this offseason pans out, the Astros could still have enough talent on hand to push for another playoff berth in 2021. For now, though, general manager James Click & Co. are at risk of losing two high-end hitters in free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jose Altuve, 2B: $104MM through 2024
  • Alex Bregman, 3B: $79MM through 2024
  • Justin Verlander, RHP: $33MM through 2021
  • Zack Greinke, RHP: $32.5MM through 2021 (Diamondbacks owe $10.33MM and $11MM is deferred)
  • Ryan Pressly, RHP: $8.75MM through 2021
  • Yuli Gurriel, 1B: $7MM through 2021 (includes $500K buyout for 2022)
  • Joe Smith, RHP: $4MM through 2021
  • Martin Maldonado, C: $3.5MM through 2021
  • Brooks Raley, LHP: $2MM salary through 2021 if he’s in the majors ($250K salary if he’s in the minors)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

  • Carlos Correa – $8.0MM / $10.2MM / $8.8MM
  • Aledmys Diaz – $2.8MM / $3.1MM / $2.8MM
  • Lance McCullers Jr. – $4.7MM / $7.0MM / $5.2MM
  • Non-tender candidates: None

Free Agents

  • George Springer, Michael Brantley, Roberto Osuna, Josh Reddick, Brad Peacock, Chris Devenski, Dustin Garneau, Chase De Jong

Outfielder George Springer has been a premier hitter and a face of the Houston franchise going back to his first year in 2014, though his Astros tenure may be on the verge of ending. After rejecting the Astros’ $18.9MM qualifying offer, the 31-year-old is now unquestionably one of the few elite players on the open market, where MLBTR predicts he’ll rake in a five-year, $125MM payday. Of course, that’s assuming teams will be willing to spend that type of money this offseason after the pandemic took its toll on the league’s finances over the past several months.

The Astros, for their part, have doled out some huge contracts in recent years (the club also took on Zack Greinke’s money in a trade). They also threw around a bit of cash this fall when they made the somewhat eyebrow-raising move to re-sign first baseman Yuli Gurriel to a one-year, $7MM contract despite an uninspiring campaign. However, it remains to be seen whether all of the guaranteed deals on the payroll will have a negative effect on their chances of re-signing Springer, as owner Jim Crane may be reluctant to go to $100MM-plus lengths for him. Furthermore, as Cody Poage of The Crawfish Boxes recently explained in a rundown of the Astros’ payroll, they only have about $37.5MM to spend if they want to stay under the $210MM luxury-tax threshold in 2021. That would make it a challenge to combine re-upping Springer with adequately addressing their other needs.

Of course, along with Springer, the Astros may wave goodbye to another major offensive piece in outfielder/designated hitter Michael Brantley. The Astros didn’t issue him a QO, but they have had talks on a new deal with Brantley, whom they signed to a two-year, $32MM pact a couple offseasons ago. Brantley should get another reasonable deal in that range this time, though Houston would probably have to trust the 33-year-old as an everyday outfield option if it’s going to bring him back. Brantley spent the majority of the season at DH because knee problems wiped out Yordan Alvarez’s 2020, but Alvarez figures to regain control of that spot next year.

With Josh Reddick also on the open market, the only sure bet for the Astros’ outfield is big-hitting corner option Kyle Tucker. The cupboard is close to bare otherwise. Myles Straw endured a miserable year at the plate, so it would be hard to pencil him in as Springer’s replacement in center. And while Chas McCormick is a farmhand of some note, the 25-year-old is hardly a can’t-miss prospect, and he has no big league track record at all.  So, as is the case with Straw, it’s difficult to envision the Astros handing McCormick a starting job and hoping he can somehow help fill the Springer/Brantley void.

Considering their outfield issues, the Astros are going to have to use free agency and/or the trade market if they lose Springer, Brantley, Reddick or all three. Those players aside, there probably isn’t a better fit in free agency than longtime Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. Granted, there’s a significant drop-off from Springer to Bradley, but JBJ is still the second-best center fielder available and someone who should be in the Astros’ price range (MLBTR predicts Houston will ink him to a two-year, $16MM).

Joc Pederson and Jurickson Profar are the next highest-ranked outfielders in free agency, though neither would address the Astros’ hole in center. In Pederson’s case, there may still be bad blood stemming from the Dodgers-Astros World Series in 2017, so whether Houston would even have a chance at signing him is unknown. Even someone like Brett Gardner could be difficult to get in the wake of the Yankees-Astros 2017 ALCS and the animosity directed at the team’s sign-stealing scandal.

Beyond those names, there isn’t much to get excited about on the open market. But if Houston spends little in the outfield and settles for the next tier or two, the team will be looking at the likes of ex-Astros Robbie Grossman and Jake Marisnick, Kevin Pillar, Adam Eaton and Michael A. Taylor. Yasiel Puig could be a wild card to keep an eye on after missing all of 2020. The Astros-Dodgers rivalry could be in play with Puig, but he may be desperate enough to sign with anyone who shows interest in him.

Outfield troubles aside, most of the Astros’ position player group looks to be in place for 2021. Gurriel, Alvarez, second baseman Jose Altuve, shortstop Carlos Correa (if the Astros don’t unexpectedly trade him one year before free agency) and third baseman Alex Bregman are still there. Martin Maldonado is the favorite to return as their catcher, but if the Astros are willing to spend for an upgrade, J.T. Realmuto and to a much lesser extent James McCann may be on the table (it seems more likely the team would splurge on Springer than Realmuto, though). Otherwise, the Astros could at least look for an upgrade over reserve Garrett Stubbs. Yadier Molina, Mike Zunino, Tyler Flowers, Alex Avila, Wilson Ramos and former Astro Jason Castro are among the top backup/timeshare types looking for work.

On the pitching side, the Astros’ rotation somehow held its own in 2020 despite almost no contributions from reigning Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, who underwent Tommy John surgery in October. The timing of that procedure means Verlander also won’t help the team in 2021. However, they do still appear to have their one through five locked up with Greinke, Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy. The Astros could at least pursue some depth signings in case of injury and/or underperformance, but they don’t look like a team that has to fret over its starting staff or pour substantial resources into it this offseason.

The bullpen, on the other hand, could be a different story with Roberto Osuna, Brad Peacock and Chris Devenski on the market. The good news for the Astros is that they were able to adjust to life without them in 2020. Osuna missed almost the whole season with elbow problems, leading the Astros to cut the potential Tommy John patient. Likewise, Peacock and Devenski barely factored in for the club.

Even with the Osuna-Peacock-Devenski departures, the Astros still do have at least a handful of enviable relief arms in Ryan Pressly, Andre Scrubb, Enoli Paredes and Blake Taylor (though Scrubb and Taylor did struggle with walks in 2020). Joe Smith could reenter the fold after sitting out all of 2020, while Austin Pruitt, Brooks Raley, Cionel Perez and Josh James are also among those who could vie for roles.

Although the above names may well comprise most of Houston’s bullpen next year, it won’t be a surprise if the team searches for a reliever(s) who’s more of a sure thing. Luckily for the Astros, free agency is overflowing with veteran relievers who figure to come at fair prices. Even the heads of the class (Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Trevor Rosenthal, Blake Treinen and Trevor May) shouldn’t be overly expensive, and there are other credible hurlers in the lower tiers with Alex Colome, Kirby Yates, Jake McGee, Shane Greene, former Astro Mark Melancon and Greg Holland just some of many seeking MLB employment.

While it would behoove the Astros to bring in any relievers along those lines, it’s clear that the outfield is the biggest question Click will have to answer over the next few months. If Click is able to find two good complements to Tucker, it would go a long way in assuring the Astros remain in contention a year from now.

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2020-21 Offseason Outlook Houston Astros MLBTR Originals

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Minor MLB Transactions: 11/12/20

By Connor Byrne | November 12, 2020 at 9:06pm CDT

The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Red Sox have inked right-handed reliever Kevin McCarthy to a minor league contract, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. McCarthy will earn an $825K salary if he makes the majors in 2021. The 28-year-old appeared in the bigs with the Royals in each season from 2016-20, and despite a meager 5.63 K/9, he recorded a 3.80 ERA/4.11 FIP in 191 2/3 innings. McCarthy has three seasons of between 45 and 70 innings under his belt, but after a 2020 in which he threw a mere six frames, the Royals outrighted him.
  • The Angels have signed infielder Kean Wong and righty Jake Reed to minors contracts with invitations to MLB camp, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. A fourth-round pick of Tampa Bay in 2013, Wong’s only major league experience came when he went 3-for-18 with the Rays and Angels in 2019. Wong does, however, own a respectable .286/.350/.413 line in 1,425 Triple-A plate appearances. The 25-year-old is the younger brother of free-agent second baseman Kolten Wong, whom the Angels have shown interest in this offseason. Reed entered the pro ranks as a Twins fifth-rounder in 2014, but he hasn’t gotten to the majors yet. The 28-year-old appeared at the Triple-A level from 2016-19, during which he logged a 3.68 ERA with 9.6 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9 over 164 innings.
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Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Angels Transactions Jake Reed Kean Wong Kevin McCarthy

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Latest On Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez

By Connor Byrne | November 12, 2020 at 7:43pm CDT

Normally contenders, the Red Sox finished with one of the majors’ worst records in 2020, winning just 24 of 60 games. One obvious reason? They received zero contributions from their two best starters, left-handers Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez, who missed the season with health problems.

While it would be nice for the Red Sox to get full years from both Sale and Rodriguez in 2021, that doesn’t appear likely. Regarding Sale, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom revealed Thursday (via Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald) that the ace won’t be available when next season begins.

“When he comes back, that’s upside,” Bloom said. “Because we know that’s not going to be at the beginning of the season.”

Sale underwent Tommy John surgery in March, and that typically requires a 12- to 15-month recovery period. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that Boston will miss Sale for some portion of time next year. But it’s still less than ideal for a team that signed Sale to a five-year, $145MM extension that just kicked in this past season.

The news is much better for Rodriguez, who on Thursday told MLB Network Radio, “I will be 100 percent ready for next season.” Rodriguez had a career campaign in 2019, but COVID-19 and myocarditis shelved him this year. He was just cleared to begin walking again in late September, so it’s remarkable that Rodriguez is on track to be in the Red Sox’s season-opening rotation in a few months.

Besides Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi, the Red Sox might not be sure who will be in their starting staff when next year commences. Their rotation stumbled to a bottom-of-the-barrel 5.34 ERA/5.50 FIP in 2020, though Tanner Houck and Nick Pivetta showed quite a bit of promise over a combined five starts and could earn spots. Otherwise, Boston may try to pick up at least one veteran in free agency to fill out the group.

[RELATED: Red Sox Offseason Outlook]

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Boston Red Sox Chris Sale Eduardo Rodriguez

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Freddie Freeman Named National League MVP

By Connor Byrne | November 12, 2020 at 5:54pm CDT

The Baseball Writers’ Association of America has awarded the 2020 National League Most Valuable Player to Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman. He beat out fellow finalists Mookie Betts and Manny Machado for the award.

The summer began in brutal fashion for Freeman, who tested positive for COVID-19 in early July. Freeman was in such bad condition that teammate Nick Markakis decided to opt out of the season. However, Markakis quickly elected to return, and Freeman was able to regain his health by the start of the regular season.

From a production standpoint, 2020 couldn’t have gone much better for the 31-year-old Freeman, who has consistently been a fantastic player since his first full season in 2011. Freeman earned MVP honors thanks largely to a career-best .341/.462/.640 line and 13 home runs in 262 trips to the plate, helping the Braves to their third straight NL East title (though they bowed out to the Dodgers in the NLCS). He wound up first in the NL in fWAR (3.4), and second in batting average, wRC+ (187) and bWAR (2.9).

It was a landslide victory for Freeman, who collected 28 of 30 first-place votes in this year’s balloting. Betts received the other two, but he’s at least temporarily denied of becoming the first player to win the MVP in two leagues since Frank Robinson. The rest of the top five consisted of the left side of the Padres’ infield (Machado and shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr.) and Nationals outfielder Juan Soto.

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Atlanta Braves Newsstand Freddie Freeman

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Jose Abreu Wins American League MVP

By Connor Byrne | November 12, 2020 at 5:23pm CDT

White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu has won the American League Most Valuable Player Award for 2020, as voted on by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Indians third baseman Jose Ramirez and Yankees second baseman DJ LeMahieu were the other finalists for the honor.

The 33-year-old Abreu has been an easily above-average hitter in the majors since he emigrated from Cuba before the 2014 season, though his contributions didn’t lead to much team success through the 2019 campaign. But the White Sox, knowing Abreu was a key piece of the puzzle, made the shrewd move to extend him for three years and $50MM last offseason, rather than let him depart in free agency.

Abreu repaid the White Sox in the first season of his new deal with a brilliant .317/.370/.617 line across 262 plate appearances. Among AL position players, he finished first in bWAR (2.8), second in home runs (19) and wRC+ (167), and third in fWAR (2.6). Abreu’s production helped the Sox to their first playoff berth since 2008, though the team fell to Oakland in the wild-card round. Beyond the bottom-line numbers, you can’t discount Abreu’s leadership, as he is regarded as one of the most respected clubhouse presences in baseball.

Abreu earned 21 of 30 first-place votes for the award. Ramirez came in second ahead of LeMahieu, while Indians right-hander Shane Bieber and three-time MVP-winning Angels center fielder Mike Trout rounded out the top five.

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Chicago White Sox Newsstand Jose Abreu

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Latest On Tony La Russa, White Sox Coaching Staff

By Connor Byrne | November 12, 2020 at 3:51pm CDT

Newly minted White Sox manager Tony La Russa’s second stint with the team got off to an inauspicious start last week when he was charged with his second DUI. The White Sox stuck behind the 76-year-old Hall of Famer then, though, and aren’t currently looking to make a change in the dugout, Andrew Seligman of the Associated Press reports. However, that could change depending on the legal process.

“Tony deserves all the assumptions and protections granted to everyone in a court of law, especially while this is a pending matter,” the White Sox stated. “Once his case reaches resolution in the courts, we will have more to say. The White Sox understand the seriousness of these charges.”

La Russa was arrested in February in Arizona after registering a blood alcohol level of .095, which is above the legal limit of .08. Charges weren’t filed until Oct. 28. The White Sox were aware of the matter, but that didn’t stop them from bringing back La Russa, who’s friends with owner Jerry Reinsdorf and who previously managed the team from 1979-86.

If La Russa does keep his job, Ethan Katz will be his pitching coach, as Dave Williams of Barstool Sports first reported. The 37-year-old Katz, who will take over for longtime White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper, already has a connection with the team in ace Lucas Giolito. Katz was Giolito’s pitching coach at Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles and has spent recent offseasons continuing to work with Giolito. He has also had runs with multiple major league organizations (Angels, Mariners and Giants) and was most recently San Francisco’s assistant pitching coach.

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Chicago White Sox Ethan Katz Tony La Russa

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Angels Name Perry Minasian GM

By Steve Adams | November 12, 2020 at 3:20pm CDT

3:20pm: The Angels have announced the hiring. Minasian received a four-year contract, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets.

12:09pm: The Angels have decided on Braves assistant general manager Perry Minasian as their new general manager, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). Rosenthal reported last night that Minasian was the favorite to land the post, replacing the recently fired Billy Eppler.

Following Eppler’s ousting, the Angels reportedly interviewed as many as 20 candidates for the position, though Minasian was one of just five to advance to the second wave of interviews. Also in the mix were Cubs senior vice president of player personnel Jason McLeod, D-backs assistant GMs Jared Porter and Amiel Sawdaye, and Mariners assistant GM Justin Hollander.

Ultimately the job will be entrusted to Minasian, who has been with the Braves since 2017 after a nine-year run working his way up through the Blue Jays’ scouting ranks. His appointment to this post makes for  another rookie GM hire for Angels owner Arte Moreno, who has previously tabbed first-timers Tony Reagins, Jerry Dipoto and the aforementioned Eppler to lead his baseball ops department. (Dipoto had served as an interim GM in Arizona prior to being hired by the Angels.)

That’s not to suggest that Minasian is in any way a head-scratching hire — far from it. He’s previously been connected to GM vacancies, including the Mets’ opening prior to their 2018 hiring of Brodie Van Wagenen. Minasian has seemingly been preparing for an opportunity like this for most of his life, in fact. As MLB.com’s Mark Bowman noted back when the Braves hired Minasian in October 2017, he served as the Rangers’ bat boy while his father was their equipment manager and eventually rose to clubhouse attend and then to the team’s scouting department prior to his move to the Blue Jays. His brother, Zack, is currently the Giants’ pro scouting director.

From his time in the clubhouse to his tenure as a prominent scout and then an assistant GM and vice president who helped to bolster the Braves’ analytics department, Minasian has a wealth of experiences and vantage points — all of which have contributed to his ascension to the top of a big league baseball operations department.

Minasian inherits a crowded but manageable long-term payroll outlook in Anaheim. The Angels are at last in the final season of the 10-year, $240MM Albert Pujols contract negotiated by Moreno, and they’ll be out from underneath Justin Upton’s five-year, $105MM deal after the 2022 season. Starting in 2023, the only players on the books for the Angels are Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon, although they’ll have some key players up for arbitration that year — most notably Shohei Ohtani, David Fletcher and Griffin Canning.

Minasian joined the Braves after the 2017 season as they were emerging from a rebuilding effort. He’ll now join a club with an even greater win-now imperative — this time standing alone atop the operations hierarchy (although Moreno has a reputation for being far more involved in baseball operations maneuverings than most of his ownership peers). It’s been six years since the Halos and Trout last reached the postseason, and Moreno has clearly grown restless as that drought has grown.

Minasian should have the green light for an aggressive offseason if he wishes. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource/FanGraphs projects a roughly $36MM gap between the Angels’ current luxury obligations and the luxury tax barrier, and that only figures to grow once the Halos make some expected non-tenders. The Angels will need to address at least one middle-infield spot and perhaps add a catcher, but the bulk of Minasian’s heavy lifting should be expected to be on the pitching side of things — in the rotation and bullpen alike.

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Atlanta Braves Los Angeles Angels Newsstand Perry Minasian

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Yankees Willing To Listen To Trade Offers For Gary Sanchez

By Connor Byrne | November 12, 2020 at 2:39pm CDT

A little under a month ago, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman suggested the club would evaluate the catcher position this offseason. That could put Gary Sanchez in jeopardy of remaining a Yankee in 2021. Now, according to Joel Sherman, Ken Davidoff and Dan Martin of the New York Post, the Yankees will at least listen to trade offers for Sanchez.

This development regarding Sanchez comes on the heels of a report saying the Yankees have interest in free agent Yadier Molina, a longtime Cardinal and potential Hall of Famer who would give New York a defensive upgrade at catcher. Of course, Molina is far older than Sanchez (38 to 27) and doesn’t possess as much offensive upside at this point of his career. Both players had subpar seasons at the plate in 2020 (82 wRC+ for Molina, 69 for Sanchez), but the powerful Sanchez was a well-above-average hitter as recently as 2019. He also began his career with a flourish from 2016-17 before a down year in ’18.

Should the Yankees decide to move on from Sanchez, they could also turn to J.T. Realmuto or James McCann in free agency. Realmuto may command a $100MM-plus contract, though, which checks in well north of the $5.1MM to $6.4MM Sanchez is projected to earn in arbitration this offseason. Sanchez also has arbitration eligibility for 2022, so it would be a risky move on the Yankees’ part to cut bait on an affordable, controllable backstop who has enjoyed a pretty successful, albeit uneven, career to this point. The only other catcher on their 40-man roster is Kyle Higashioka, a 30-year-old who owns a line of .186/.221/.381 (55 wRC+) through 204 major league plate appearances.

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New York Yankees Gary Sanchez

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How Will Marcus Semien Do In Free Agency?

By Steve Adams | November 12, 2020 at 1:58pm CDT

While a frosty winter for most free agents has been the general expectation throughout the industry, there’s also been a belief that the very top names on the market will still be compensated at a rate more commensurate with a typical economic climate. Names like Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, George Springer and DJ LeMahieu are widely projected to secure lucrative multi-year deals. Agent Joel Wolfe tells Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he expects client Marcus Semien to also command a high-dollar contract despite the harsh market conditions.

Wolfe didn’t say he expects a nine-figure deal for the 30-year-old shortstop but did plainly state that Semien’s “pure value in the industry is north of $100MM.” The use of “pure” value at a time when contractual expectations are depressed suggests that the actual target could be somewhat lower. Still, it’s rather eye-opening to see any agent invoke a $100MM price point in any context at this point — particularly for a player coming off a respectable but hardly elite season. I won’t fully rehash Wolfe’s comments for the purposes of this exercise, but Slusser’s interview is well worth a full read-through to get a broader sense of his representation’s thinking.

Semien’s market and contract, admittedly, are among the toughest to gauge among all free agents this offseason. That’s due to a combination of Semien’s pedestrian regular-season numbers, his huge postseason efforts and the fact that he was an elite, MVP-level performer in 2019 — but at no other point in his career. Add in that we simply don’t see solid, everyday shortstops reach free agency often, and it’s all the more difficult because of a lack of precedent.

Outside of Didi Gregorius last year and Zack Cozart a few years back, most quality shortstops have been locked up on contract extensions that buy out their early free-agent years. (It’s fair to wonder whether that would’ve been true of Gregorius, too, had he not required Tommy John surgery post-2018). Each of Andrelton Simmons, Xander Bogaerts, Elvis Andrus, Paul DeJong, Brandon Crawford, Jorge Polanco, Tim Anderson and Jean Segura took earlier paydays rather than a year-to-year arbitration approach, for instance. It may not seem like it at first glance, but Semien’s very presence on the market as an in-his-prime, starting-caliber shortstop is rather atypical.

Given that context, the scattershot nature of predictions for Semien isn’t all that surprising. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel predicted a three-year, $54MM deal, calling Semien a “steady 2.5 to 3.5 WAR player whom a savvy club will find solid value in for two or three years.” At FanGraphs, Craig Edwards predicted a four-year, $64MM deal, pointing to the fact that if you toss out the first two weeks of the season after a shortened ramp-up period, Semien posted a 133 wRC+ (playoffs included). The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked him sixth among free agents — between Marcell Ozuna and DJ LeMahieu — noting that he seems capable of handling shortstop for the next several years but calling 2019 a likely outlier season.

Tim Dierkes, Connor Byrne, Jeff Todd and I struggled with what to predict for Semien when we were discussing our annual Top 50 list. I was the most bullish of the bunch on Semien’s prospects, believing that the “one elite season” argument somewhat glosses over the fact that Semien kept his bat elite over the course of an MLB-high 747 plate appearances that year. Weighting that output the same as we’d rate a 500-600 plate appearance sample simply because it fell within the confines of “one season” didn’t sit right. Over Semien’s past 1000 plate appearances — closer to two full seasons than to one — he’s been about 25 percent better than a league-average hitter. For someone capable of playing average or better shortstop defense, that’s immensely valuable, even if there’s some further regression in store.

It’s tough to overlook a .223/.305/.374 slash in 2020, however, and even folding in his massive postseason performance that only jumps to .244/.326/.408. Even as the most bullish member of the MLBTR staff regarding Semien, I had a difficult time picturing more than a three-year deal in the range of $14-15MM annually. We ultimately put down a one-year deal with a return to market next winter, hopefully on the heels of a stronger showing, with the prevailing logic being that any multi-year offers received simply wouldn’t be that exciting relative to Semien’s post-2019 expectations.

The 2021-22 class of shortstops featuring Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Trevor Story and Carlos Correa certainly isn’t a welcoming group to join, although as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd rightly pointed out, the huge supply of quality shortstops inherently means there will be considerable demand for replacements — and not every club losing one of those five will be able to meet the asking price to retain them. Therein could lie an opportunity for a strong contract for Semien. That glut of quality options, Wolfe tells Slusser, is “a factor we’d consider but not a guiding factor” in the shortstop’s ultimate decision.

While it’s again worth noting that Wolfe didn’t outright set a $100MM asking price, it still seems likely based on his comments that Semien’s reps at Wasserman have a loftier goal than most pundits expect to be attainable. Wolfe tells Slusser that interest in Semien has already been strong — including an inquiry from a club that already would appear to have a set shortstop. “I just got another call (Wednesday) from a team that said they’d be willing to move their shortstop to another position,” the agent tells Slusser.

Between the A’s, Reds, Phillies and Angels, there are at least four postseason hopefuls who have fairly straightforward openings at shortstop. Other clubs like the Yankees, Mets, Twins and Blue Jays could certainly shuffle their infield mix if they believe Semien represents a potential value purchase in a depressed market with a historically good 2021-22 shortstop class looming.

Wolfe’s comments to Slusser exude some confidence that Semien will eventually land a strong multi-year commitment, but there may not be a position player with a broader range of plausible outcomes on this year’s free-agent market.

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Oakland Athletics Marcus Semien

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