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Padres, Mike Clevinger Working Toward Two-Year Deal

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The Padres are working toward a two-year contract with right-hander Mike Clevinger, reports Fansided’s Robert Murray (via Twitter). A two-year pact would buy out Clevinger’s remaining two years of arbitration, creating cost certainty for the Friars and granting some extra financial security for the pitcher himself. It would not, however, provide the Padres with any additional club control over Clevinger, who is currently on track to reach free agency after the 2022 campaign.

It’s sensible for both the Padres and Clevinger, who’ll turn 30 next month, to proactively look to avoid the arbitration process entirely. Arbitration figures to be messier than ever this offseason in the wake of the league’s broad-reaching revenue losses, so it behooves San Diego to get some cost certainty — particularly if doing so allows them to backload Clevinger’s salary. For Clevinger himself, he’ll avoid a potentially contentious process and lock in not only his 2021 salary but his 2022 contract on the heels of a season that ended with elbow concerns.

Clevinger earned $4.1MM in 2020, and using MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s 37-percent projection method, he’d land at a $4.8MM salary in 2021. That’s obviously a rather modest bump, and the uncertainties surrounding this year’s arbitration process in general inherently create a fairly broad range of variance. Still, a two-year deal figures to check in south of $20MM, given that Clevinger’s second- and third-time arbitration salaries would have only been a fraction of his open-market value, as is typically the case with arb numbers.

The 2020 season saw Clevinger again pitch at a very high level, as he worked 41 2/3 frames of 3.02 ERA ball with a 40-to-14 K/BB ratio. He struggled with his control a bit early on but righted the ship with the Padres, issuing just three walks in 19 regular-season innings following the blockbuster trade that shipped him from Cleveland to San Diego. Clevinger came under fire early in the season not only breaking Covid-19 protocols but traveling with the Indians after doing so. Cleveland learned of his infraction after the fact and subsequently optioned him to their alternate training site; Clevinger was traded not long after, although the organization denied that his rule violations played a role in driving the move.

Whatever the motivation, the Padres stand to benefit in the years to come. Clevinger joins Dinelson Lamet as a front-of-the-rotation arm at Petco Park, and the Padres have a wealth of other pitching talent on hand as well. Chris Paddack struggled in 2020 but was dominant as a rookie a year prior. Zach Davies enjoyed a breakout year this season following a trade from the Brewers. Top prospect Luis Patino made his big league debut in 2020, and the even more ballyhooed MacKenzie Gore should do so in 2021. Lefty Adrian Morejon gives San Diego yet another intriguing, high-upside option.

All told, it’s a both enviable and inexpensive crop of arms that give the Padres considerable long-term depth and upside. The Padres have some high-priced players on the position side of things — Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers — and will likely explore a long-term deal for Fernando Tatis Jr. at some point. Nailing down Clevinger’s price helps the front office and ownership alike get a better sense of the budget for that and other moves over the next two years.

Mets, Yankees Have Shown Interest In Yadier Molina

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Both the Mets and Yankees have reached out to Yadier Molina’s camp to express interest in the veteran catcher, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The Cardinals icon has also heard from at least three others, per Heyman.

It’s not surprising that either New York club would at least explore the possibility of bringing the 38-year-old Molina into the fold. As noted here at MLBTR last week, signing Molina would be a major narrative shift in the Bronx, where Gary Sanchez’s defensive struggles and prolific strikeout rates have drawn the ire of many fans. Molina, of course, is a generational defender at his position and still possesses some of the best bat-to-ball skills in baseball (13.5 percent strikeout rate in 2020).

As for the Mets, they’ve been oft-connected to J.T. Realmuto since it became clear that Steve Cohen would purchase the club from the Wilpon family. Wilson Ramos is a free agent, leaving Tomas Nido atop the team’s depth chart behind the dish. For a club with immediate postseason aspirations under new ownership, that doesn’t cut it. Molina would be a more affordable option than Realmuto, leaving more resource available to pursue other top free agents and trade targets (e.g. George Springer, Trevor Bauer, Francisco Lindor). Outgoing White Sox catcher James McCann stands out as a younger alternative as well.

Agent Melvin Roman told Heyman a couple weeks back that he’s seeking a two-year deal for Molina, and Roman told MLB.com’s Jon Morosi last week that they’ve heard from at least three clubs beyond the Cardinals. At this point, there’s no reason to call any club other than St. Louis a favorite, as the Cards clearly have the most motivation to keep Molina through the end of his career. Ostensible interest from other clubs — particularly big-market organizations out of New York — will only increase fan pressure to make a deal happen, though to this point it’s not clear that any of the teams that have expressed interest have shown a willingness to offer the two-year term that Molina and Roman seek.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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With a familiar face back in the manager’s chair, the Red Sox are looking to rebound from a disastrous last-place finish in the AL East.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Chris Sale, SP: $115MM through 2024 ($20MM club/vesting option for 2025; Sale can opt out of contract after the 2022 season)
  • Xander Bogaerts, SS: $100MM through 2025 (plus $20MM club/vesting option for 2026)
  • J.D. Martinez, OF/DH: $38.75MM through 2022 (could become mutual options if Martinez suffers a Lisfranc-related injury to his right foot)
  • Nathan Eovaldi, SP: $34MM through 2022
  • Dustin Pedroia, 2B: $12MM through 2021
  • Andrew Benintendi, OF: $6.6MM through 2021
  • Christian Vazquez, C: $6.5MM through 2021 (includes $250K buyout of $7MM club option for 2022)

Other Obligations

  • $32MM to the Dodgers through the 2022 season to cover a portion of David Price’s salary

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Despite months of speculation that Alex Cora would eventually return to the Red Sox, the team at least created the perception of due diligence in searching for a new manager, with at least eight other candidates considered for the position.  Of course, Cora now returns to the job with the baggage of his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, which led to his January firing in Boston and his subsequent league-issued suspension for the 2020 season.

Regardless of whether Cora’s return was always in the cards, the end result is the same — the manager of Boston’s 2018 World Series team has now been tasked with getting the Sox back on track.  With the obvious caveat of the 60-game schedule, Boston’s .400 winning percentage (24-36) was the lowest since the club’s .383 mark (62-100) in 1965, representing a drastic fall for a team just two years removed from a championship.

It was expected that 2020 would be a transition year for the Red Sox, considering last February’s trade of Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers.  That blockbuster deal ensured that the Sox would duck under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2020, thus avoiding the escalating tax bill that came with three consecutive years of overages, and also ensuring that the Red Sox would pay only the “first-timer” tax rate if they were to exceed the $210MM threshold in 2021.

When the Sox last reset their luxury tax bill in 2017, they responded by exceeding the threshold again in 2018, largely due to signing J.D. Martinez as the final piece of their World Series puzzle.  Even before the pandemic sliced into every team’s revenues, however, it didn’t seem likely that chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom was going to immediately launch a similar CBT-busting spending spree this winter.  If Boston’s plan going forward is to spend big but not to excess, the front office will have plenty of room to operate, as the Red Sox have a little under $161MM (well shy of $210MM) on the books for 2021.

“I don’t like ruling us out on anybody,” Bloom recently said in regards to shopping at the very top of the free agent market.  Boston’s biggest needs also overlap with some of the winter’s biggest available names.  George Springer would more than replace Jackie Bradley Jr. in center field.  DJ LeMahieu would turn second base from a weak spot to a strength.  Trevor Bauer would instantly upgrade a woeful rotation.  It remains to be seen how ardently the Sox will pursue any of this trio, or if they’ll instead look to spread their money around for less-expensive free agents or higher-priced players who may be available in trades.

Let’s begin with the pitching staff that was ravaged by injuries in 2020.  Chris Sale underwent Tommy John surgery last March and will miss at least a couple of months at the start of the season.  Eduardo Rodriguez thankfully seems to be on pace to return after missing all of last season due to a COVID-19 diagnosis that led to myocarditis, but it’s hard to call the southpaw anything other than a question mark until he is back on the mound.  With Rodriguez hopefully ready for Opening Day, he and Nathan Eovaldi will headline a rotation mix that currently looks to include Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Chris Mazza, or Kyle Hart.

Needless to say, there’s plenty of room for at least one and probably two proven starters to be added.  We’ve already seen some noteworthy early movement within the pitching market, as Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman accepted qualifying offers from the Mets and Giants, respectively, and Robbie Ray re-signed with the Blue Jays.  Beyond those names who have already left the board, a case could be made for the Red Sox to pursue just about any free agent arm.

Veterans Jake Odorizzi, Jose Quintana or Masahiro Tanaka could bring some stability, as odd as it would be to see Tanaka pitching on the other side of the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry.   Corey Kluber or James Paxton could be had at relative bargain prices given their injury-marred 2020 seasons, or Taijuan Walker or Garrett Richards could be pursued after their bounce-back campaigns.  If the Red Sox want to add a veteran to just eat some innings, they could turn to old friends Jon Lester, Rick Porcello, or Martin Perez.  Boston declined its $6.85MM club option on Perez, perhaps a bit of a surprise considering their need for pitching, but Perez posted some pretty middling numbers in 2020.

Bauer gets his own section, as the Red Sox’ hiring of Bloom likely pushes the club toward a more analytical approach that the right-hander desires.  With so much uncertainty in the rotation, one could even argue the Sox should be willing to let Bauer try pitching every fourth day — another item on his free-agent wish list.  Still, this seems like a long shot.  Bauer is more likely to sign with a team that seems closer to winning in 2021, and given his past criticism of the Astros, he might not be all that eager to play under Cora.

The bullpen was also a big problem area and might yet face an overhaul.  With teams expected to be more aggressive than ever in non-tendering arbitration-eligible players, it wouldn’t be a complete shock if any of Barnes, Brasier, Weber, or Brice were non-tendered.  It’s indicative of the state of the 2020 offseason that even generally solid relievers like Barnes or Brasier are lacking in job security.

If Bloom’s time with the Rays tells us anything about the approach he’ll take with the relief market in Boston, he’ll eschew going after bigger names like Liam Hendriks and the lucrative multi-year deals required to land top-of-the-market relievers.  The market should have plenty of short-term options available — former Rays Kirby Yates, Sergio Romo, and Brad Boxberger among them, not that Bloom will necessarily be predisposed to look at former Tampa Bay arms.  The Red Sox could also explore a reunion with Collin McHugh, who signed with the club last March but didn’t pitch after some lingering elbow problems led McHugh to opt out of the season.

It can’t be overstated just how much Boston’s pitching sunk their season, as the Red Sox lineup was a lot more solid than one would expect for a last-place team.  That was despite poor seasons from Martinez and Andrew Benintendi, and the Sox are counting on both to hit closer to their usual form next year.

Martinez will again be the regular DH while Benintendi will have a starting outfield job, though the position is to be determined.  With Bradley possibly leaving, either Benintendi or Alex Verdugo could be tabbed to take over in center field, or the Sox could take a more fluid approach to their lineup and have the two alternate between center field and a corner spot based on matchups.  With Michael Chavis, Yairo Munoz, and Martinez all able to chip in for corner outfield duty in a pinch and prospect Jarren Duran projected to make his MLB debut at some point in 2021, the Sox have some flexibility in whatever they decide to do with their outfield.

That decision could simply be to re-sign Bradley.  The Sox have already discussed a new contract for the former Gold Glover, though they’ll have competition since Bradley coupled his strong defense with an above-average offensive year in 2020.

Elsewhere around the diamond, shortstop (Xander Bogaerts), catcher (Christian Vazquez), third base (Rafael Devers), and first base (impressive rookie Bobby Dalbec) have most of the positions spoken for, but there has been some speculation that Devers’ defensive struggles could lead to a position swap with Dalbec.  Since the Red Sox are a bit thin on left-handed bats, nobody would be surprised if Mitch Moreland was brought back into the fold in his old part-time first base role.  Munoz was used exclusively as an outfielder last year but has infield experience, so he’ll be competing for bench/utility infield duty with Christian Arroyo, Tzu-Wei Lin, prospect C.J. Chatham, or maybe a new face or two signed to a minor league contract.

That leaves second base as the glaring weak link.  The Red Sox liked what they saw in Arroyo last year and it seems too early to give up on Chavis, so the backup plan could be to use these two and Munoz at the position and see what develops.  However, second base is also the most obvious spot for an external solution, especially since some solid options exist in free agency.  Beyond LeMahieu as the biggest get, Tommy La Stella, Cesar Hernandez, Kolten Wong, and Korean star Ha-Seong Kim are available.  Since star prospect Jeter Downs (whose potential debut in 2021 shouldn’t be ruled out) might eventually end up as the second baseman of the future, Boston would probably prefer to seek out shorter-term rather than longer-term contracts for any second baseman they might pursue.

If Bloom’s first season running the front office was marked by cost-cutting and roster churn, this offseason might be our first chance to see how plans to run the Red Sox under more “normal” circumstances — as normal as can be, of course, considering the pandemic’s influence and all of the uncertainty surrounding the 2021 season.  Don’t count on an all-in push, but if 2020 was all of the rebuilding and step backwards that ownership was willing to take, the Sox could be one of the winter’s more aggressive teams.

Latest On Trey Mancini

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NOVEMBER 12: In yet further good news, Mancini says that he remains cancer-free two months after wrapping up his chemotherapy regimen. As MLB.com’s Joe Trezza was among those to report, Mancini made clear that he intends to be ready to play on Opening Day in 2021.

We’ll all be rooting for continued progress for the outfielder, who says he’s well enough that all of his “attention is turned back toward baseball.” When last he played competitively, in the 2019 season, Mancini ripped 35 home runs and turned in a .291/.364/.535 batting line over 679 plate appearances.

NOVEMBER 6: Orioles slugger Trey Mancini posted a video on Instagram of himself taking swings in a batting cage Wednesday, as noted by Joe Trezza of MLB.com. He’s been hitting been since mid-October, Mancini told Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.

The 28-year-old missed the entire 2020 season after being diagnosed with a malignant tumor in his colon in March. Eight months later, it seems he’s thankfully on track for a more-or-less normal offseason. “I’ve been doing full workouts and everything. I’m not really taking it easier, I’m just making sure I’m taking long enough breaks and things like that. But I’m full tilt, doing normal workouts,” Mancini said (via Kubatko). He went on to note that getting his mechanics back as a hitter clicked pretty quickly, comparing it to riding a bike.

The Orioles have long expected Mancini to return to the team in 2021, but it’s doubtless still welcome news his recovery is progressing smoothly. In addition to being one of Baltimore’s best players, the well-respected Mancini should be a boon to the O’s young clubhouse. “I’m not even lying when I say this: If spring training started today, I’d be good to go,” Mancini stated.

Minasian, Hollander Finalists For Angels GM Job

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11:29pm: Minasian is seen as the “front-runner,” Rosenthal tweets.

11:03pm: The Angels have narrowed their search for a new GM. They’ll choose between Braves assistant GM Perry Minasian and Mariners AGM Justin Hollander, according to Ken Rosenthal and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (via Twitter).

Other serious candidates included Jason McLeod of the Cubs and Jared Porter of the Diamondbacks. Both were among the finalists recently removed from consideration, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Another Arizona exec, Amiel Sawdaye, was also among the finalists, Rosenthal adds.

It seems we’ll soon know which of the remaining candidates will get the gig. The Halos will likely announce their choice tomorrow, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Registers reports on Twitter.

The top baseball operations position came open in late September, on the heels of another disappointing season. Owner Arte Moreno elected to cut bait on GM Billy Eppler despite recently extending his contract by one additional year.

Despite a five-year run of losing campaigns under Eppler, the Angels aren’t expected to present a rebuilding opportunity for a new front office leader. The club still features some premium talent, headlined by living legend Mike Trout, with the payroll commitments to match.

Though the Angels reportedly considered a wide array of potential hires, including some with previous experience in a GM seat, the team clearly homed in on a certain archetype as its search progressed. The five finalists are all relatively youthful, rising-star types who’ve yet to run their own department.

Tigers Interested In Taijuan Walker

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The Tigers have expressed interest in free agent righty Taijuan Walker, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). While the Detroit club has an array of young pitching on hand, Morosi says the intention is to ink at least one veteran hurler.

Walker’s career has been hampered by injury issues, but he was at full health for the partial 2020 campaign. He compiled 53 1/3 innings of 2.70 ERA pitching over 11 starts.

Alas, the results look a lot better than the underlying numbers. Opposing hitters registered only a .286 wOBA but produced contact quality suggesting a much more robust .325 xwOBA (though Walker did land in the 74th percentile in hard contact rate). Fielding-independent pitching measures weren’t terribly optimistic; Walker checked in with a 4.56 FIP, 4.82 xFIP, and 4.60 SIERA. He managed only a 7.8% swinging-strike rate last year.

Suffice to say, teams considering Walker will likely not be chasing upside so much as hoping for reasonably priced, solid innings. And there’s reason to think he can serve as a useful back-of-the-rotation starter. Walker was healthy enough in 2020 to average 93.5 mph with his fastball, not far off his career average, and he won’t turn 29 until August. MLBTR graded him the 23rd-best available free agent, predicting that he’d land a two-year, $16MM contract.

Mets Interview Michael Hill

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The Mets have interviewed Michael Hill for the role of president of baseball operations, Andy Martino of SNY.tv reports on Twitter. The chat occurred over the weekend.

It’s an especially interesting time to follow the rarely dull New York franchise. New owner Steve Cohen raised already lofty expectations for his first offseason at the helm in a recent talk with the media, but he’ll first need to add baseball operations leadership before attacking the player market.

Cohen brought back Sandy Alderson in the team president role, with intentions of overhauling the front office. Now Alderson is leading the search for someone to take over his former role atop the baseball ops hierarchy.

It wasn’t long ago that Hill and Alderson were doing battle in the NL East, with the former heading up the Marlins front office. Though Hill survived an ownership change in Miami and helped put together a successful 2020 roster, he ended up departing at season’s end.

No doubt the Mets are strongly considering other candidates as well as Hill, who has also been linked to the Angels. The full slate of candidates isn’t yet clear. It’s quite an appealing opportunity now that the deep-pocketed Cohen is aboard. Alderson has stated that he’ll delegate primary decisionmaking authority to the baseball operations president.

Dayton Moore Expects Royals To Be Competitive In 2021

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The Kansas City Royals last made the playoffs in 2015. That was a good year. Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Salvador Perez, and a transcendent bullpen won the AL pennant for the second consecutive season, and they finished it off with World Series victory.

That team is the most recent Royals squad to post a winning record. They went 81-81 in 2016, 80-82 in 2017, and then the bottom fell out. They lost 100+ games in each of the next two seasons before posting a 26-34 record in this year’s shortened season. That’s a 70-win pace for a full season, definitely an improvement over back-to-back season in which they failed to crack 60 wins.

Manager Mike Matheny will need to coax a more substantial improvement from his squad if they want to compete in 2021. That’s indeed the plan, however. General Manager Dayton Moore spoke with reporters during a Zoom call today, and he made no bones about his expectations for the Royals in 2021. Moore said, per Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star:

“We expect to win next year. What does that look like? Is it going to be enough wins to make the playoffs? We’ll find out. Our mindset is going to be to win every single pitch, every inning, win every game. That’s the only way that we’re ever going to win another championship, you’ve got to expect to win at all aspects.”

Don’t expect the Royals to be major players in free agency, however. The small market club figures to be judicious in adding from the open market. The primary pieces of the next Royals contender are going to be developed in-house, as has been the Royals preference. They’ve long believed in their current crop of players, even as the team as a whole has struggled. Interestingly, Moore did say that he doesn’t see finances getting in the way of improving the team, should the right opportunity come along.

The Royals plan to pursue their own free agents before expanding to the open market, which would be very “Royals” of them, though returning any of Greg Holland, Ian Kennedy, Mike Montgomery, or even Trevor Rosenthal could help boost a bullpen that needs some work. The Royals have incrementally added young arms like Brad Keller, Kris Bubic, and Brady Singer to veteran Danny Duffy in the rotation. The bullpen remains a work in progress. They did, however, put forth a 3.84 ERA in 2020, a mark that ranked 8th in the majors. Losing Holland would create an opening, with first looks presumably going to Josh Staumont, Kyle Zimmer, Jesse Hahn, and Scott Barlow. That quartet present some intriguing options with which to move forward into 2021.

Otherwise, the Royals will continue to try to develop and build from within. Bobby Witt Jr., Khalil Lee, and Kyle Isbel received high praise from Moore as prospects that could turn into significant pieces. Witt was the #2 overall pick of the 2019 draft, and he has yet to play a full season in the minors.

Trevor Bauer Wins NL Cy Young Award

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Trevor Bauer of the Cincinnati Reds was awarded the Cy Young in the National League by the BBWAA tonight. Amazingly, Bauer becomes the first Cy Young award winner in Reds’ history.

Bauer made the most of his free agent season with a league-leading 1.73 ERA over 73 innings, including 2 complete game shutouts. Bauer showed up in the postseason for the Reds as well, going 7 2/3 innings allowing just 2 hits while striking out 12 and walking none. During the regular season, opponents hit just .159 against him, the best mark in the league.

That represents quite the platform for a freshly minted free agent. Teams will also have to consider Bauer’s frustrating 2019 campaign, though he was dealing with injuries for much of the year and his comeback left little to be desired. Bauer is one of the most entertaining, enigmatic, and opinionated personalities in the game, and now he’s heading into the open market as the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner.

As close as the race seemed leading up to the event, Bauer ran away with it, taking 27 first-place votes and 201 total points. Yu Darvish finished 2nd with 3 first-place votes and 123 total point, and Jacob deGrom finished 3rd with 89 points. 12 different pitchers received at least one vote for the award.

Shane Bieber Wins AL Cy Young Award

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Shane Bieber of the Cleveland Indians was awarded the top pitching honor in the American League by the BBWAA tonight. It’s Bieber’s first Cy Young award. He finished 4th in Cy Young voting last season. Bieber was a unanimous winner, taking all 30 first place votes.

Bieber stood head and shoulders above the field in 2020, his age-25 season and third in the majors. Over 12 starts, he posted a 1.63 ERA/2.07 FIP with 14.2 K/9 to 2.4 BB/9, good for 3.3 rWAR and a 281 ERA+. He led the majors in wins, ERA, FIP, ERA+, strikeouts, and strikeout rate, while he led the American League with the fewest hits allowed per nine innings (5.4 H/9). Simply, it was a remarkable season for Bieber.

Kenta Maeda of the Twins finished 2nd with 18 of 30 2nd-place votes and 92 total points. Hyun Jin Ryu of the Blue Jays finished 3rd with 51 total points, one ahead of the 4th-place finisher Gerrit Cole. There were 11 different pitchers to receive at least one vote. Bieber is the first unanimous winner in the AL since Justin Verlander in 2011.

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