The Red Sox have reached out to Jackie Bradley Jr.’s camp since free agency opened, reports Rob Bradford of WEEI. The 30-year-old has also drawn interest from the Astros and an unidentified team in the AL Central, Bradford adds. (Speculatively speaking, the Royals and Indians seem the most likely teams in that division to pursue centerfield help this offseason).
Bradley joined the Red Sox when the organization selected him with the 40th overall pick in the 2010 draft. He had cemented himself as the team’s everyday center fielder by 2015, a role he’s held ever since. Bradley has had his share of highs and lows at the plate, but he’s consistently been among the game’s best defensive outfielders.
To his credit, Bradley hits the open market on the heels of one of the better offensive showings of his career. He slashed .283/.364/.450 with seven home runs over 217 plate appearances in 2020, rebounding from a .225/.317/.421 line the season before. That strong showing positions Bradley well in a free agent center field market that’s otherwise quite thin behind George Springer. The MLBTR staff forecasts Bradley for a two-year, $16MM deal this winter, with Houston pegged as his most likely landing spot.
They’ve been in contact…..about when he can come clean out his locker
C’mon now…I’m sure they also asked him to return his key card.
Seriously though… he probably hires someone to actually clean out the locker.
Common sense to let him move on. This next contract will be the last one of substance. He’ll lose a step and his bat won’t make up for it
He’s not going to lose much of a step on a two-year contract. We’re not talking a Pujols contract where 10 years take a big toll on your speed.
1 year, 3-4M should get it done, if they want to. But I doubt they want to. I love watching the man play CF, but they need more offense out of a CF than JBJ will ever give.
He’ll get at least $7M/yr. if not more coming off of that season. That will be a $3M reduction in salary from last season too. I think the 2/$16M proposed in the article is spot on.
His salary was $8.55 million in 2019 and $11 million in 2020 (although that may have been reduced because of the shortened season).
So you are suggesting that he’d take a $7 to $8 million pay cut as a free agent?
Being a Free Agent doesn’t always mean you get a raise. If Chris Davis was a FA this year, would you expect a raise from his 22M salary (or whatever that figure is)?
JBJ’s net value is probably about 3-4M. Great fielder, excellent fundamentals, clubhouse good guy (or so they say). But it ends there.
they need more offense out of a CF
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Most teams don’t get a lot of offense out of CF. And while 2020 was a small sample size, Boston was #3 if CF offense. Springer will get $100M, and his OPS was about the same as JBJ’s OPS.
Springer has a career 80 points above JBJ’s. Comparing them is silly.
I can compare any two players. There is no way to assess their relative value otherwise. And 80 points is not that big a difference. I am actually surprised it is that small.
Comparing JBJ even to himself is silly on a 60 game schedule. JBJ proved in 18 that he can get a big hit. If the Sox don’t get pitching, they might as well not spend on position players.
The Sox have a suitable replacement in Jaren Duran coming up from the minors. He has a good glove but is a much more consistent offensive player plus the fact that he’ll cost a fraction of what JBJ will get
Jarren Duran is a 24-year-old who in 2019 posted a wRC+ of only 87 over 352 Double A plate appearances in his only experience above High A:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/sa3006786/stats?position=OF
Even Sox-friendly SoxProspects notes that Duran is only a “potential average defender.”
https://soxprospects.com/players/duran-jarren.htm
ZiPS projects 2021 WAR of 0.4 in 122 games for Duran and 1.4 in 128 games for Jackie Bradley Jr.
Fans should temper their expectations for Duran.
After watching every simulated game at the alternate site this summer, their is no doubt in my mind that Jarren Duran is a top 3 prospect in the org. He has made major strides offensively that should make him a .300 hitter with 15 hrs. Still a work in progress defensively, but his ridiculous speed can make up for a lot of it. Surprised if he is not manning cf by May. Resign pillar to play until Duran is ready.
It is all about cutting payroll now for Henry. I think they will sign Pillar for 1yr at 3-4 million and go with Duran.
Lol. You re-signing Pillar for 4 years>
Cutting payroll? The RS will spend up to the cap.
That is a virtual guarantee.
I am pretty positive the Redsox would NEVER be in communication with JBJ UNLESS they were positive they had no reasonable replacement for him.
pash: “NEVER” “positive”. These words are non-conversation starts. Your bias is showing.
According to reports, Duran adjusted his swing, gained muscle and showed well offensively. His defense is the problem. He has speed, but not great instincts or arm. He needs to prove himself in AAA this year in both hitting and fielding before throwing him in center.
That’s probably what they said about Jackie when he was a prospect. How a player does in the minors can be quite encouraging, but also also quite different from what they do in the majors. Nearly all players who make the bigs produce numbers to earn the call up. Few end up staying for a prolonged career. That’s why Dombrowski has been successful. He trades the maybes for established players. That greatly narrows the odds. The reason Duran is cheaper is the level of production is riskier at this point of his career.
SoxProspects wrote of prospect Jackie Bradley Jr,: “Field: Polished defensively. Projects to stick in center field. Plus-plus defender .”
https://www.soxprospects.com/players/bradley-jackie.htm
Bradley, a former first-round draft pick, made his MLB debut just shy of his 23rd birthday. Duran is a 24-year-old who has never played above Double A.
Clearly JBJ being a first round picks shows he was more polished. thats why he was such a high pick Therefore he should climb through the farm system quicker. It doesn’t make Duran a non-prospect.
Duran had seven home runs at the alternative training site and against mlb and AAA pitching. He has changed his swing to a higher launch angle and added a lot of power. That said he still needs a full year at AAA.
I watched over 30 games online from the alternative training site and his batting looked great! He has a ways to go defensively.
Why do Red Sox fans always over hype every single prospect?
The same can be said for every other fan base in MLB.
Haven’t seen any overhyping. “Suitable replacement” is a reasonable statement. Question is why does every Red Sox hater overread into every positive Red Sox comment?
Dennyd – exactly! I did not say Duran was the next Mike Trout. He could be an average to a little above if he continues to progress. He has added power and should be able to hit for a better average than Bradley, but he does not read fly balls off the bat that well. He needs a good year of seasoning. IMO he should not start the season in Fenway….maybe August or September. I think Bloom needs to look at FA for CF or move Benintendi to CF and sign a corner outfielder.
Most RS fans seem to hate our prospects.
In all seriousness, they probably value him more than any other team
Have you ever heard the NYY fan base, or the Mets? I rarely ever heard my fan base yapping about prospects, except on occasion. I remember when JBJ was spoken of, it was when there was a hole in CF, and it was not about the bat.
Pashka, there was never a hole in CF. JBJ was the replacement on waiting for Ellsbury.
I am telling you, the Orioles should be all over this
How many opportunities does one get to sign a JBJ
He would be perfect in CF for the O’s
PS I would make the room to do it!!
Hays and Mullins are just fine, thank you. If the O’s spend money it should be on a 3rd baseman or another starter.
There are plenty of third baseman And the O’s could get Lamb, I would be down with that
Lamb could be a decent pickup. His power would play well at Camden Yards. His defensive stats are similar to Ruiz.
I like Lamb as a bounce back guy, for sure. not sure how much better he is than the current options if he fails to bounce back
I don’t see how he could be a total failure
He has some mad skills but we will see
Jake Lamb could return to his hometown of Seattle as a lefthand-hitting complement to first baseman Evan White and designated hitter Ty France.
Or not.
No thank you. Talk about paying for 1 tool. jb is one of the most overrated players in baseball. He is a name only because of the team he played for.
I don’t buy that DP Smith
That man can glove and liked hitting in Camden
the guy is a .239 lifetime hitter with little power. not to mention as his speed dwindles, as will his defense. pass
You don’t know what is good
your entitled to your own opinion. thank you for your hate.
a team 3 years away should have ZERO interest in JBJ.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the White Sox are the AL Central team that has been in touch. They need someone to play RF. Springer would be great, but they historically haven’t signed such big contracts, and there will be a lot of competition for him. JBJ would be a decent defense-first backup plan, which might make sense since they expect a lot of offensive production from the rest of their lineup and could use defensive help in the outfield to balance Eloy’s poor defense.
That’s what I think too. Him and Adam Engel sharing right and the other taking over in left after Eloy’s last at bat.
I could see a link to KC with JBJ for that he’s a Royal type player for better or worse and apparently he & Whit are tight so as long as the terms aren’t crazy (3-4 years at about 10m per) bad, that could work and be within the timeframe of consistent playoff contention again which if they successfully funnel in a couple more of arms from 2018 draft like Kowar & Lynch as they did this year with Bubic & Singer, I think that window really starts to open in 2022…
Cleveland makes the most sense as a landing spot
ONLY in that they need outfielders in general. Cleveland needs offense which JB proves below replacement level.
The Indians say they have no money and have cheaper options in Mercado, Zimmer, Naquin, and DeShields. The Royals make sense if they are either planning on trading Merrifield or moving him back to 2B. The White Sox only make sense if they are going to shift him or Luis Robert to LF and DH Jimenez. I wouldn’t rule out a return to Boston as defensively they won’t find a better option in free agency unless they plan on opening the check book for an expensive bat, which doesn’t sound likely
Whit would be moved to RF for that they’ve pretty much committed to Nicky Lopez at 2B for at least one more season and upper management has even said that as long as Mondesi is hitting decently, they can absorb Lopez’s negative bat for that his defense is so good which I disagree with that view but that’s straight from GM D.Moore.
The Tigers need an OF until Greene is ready in ’22. Their lineup could use a LH bat. With Comerica having a huge LF, Eaton or Bradley could be a fit.
You nailed it. I also think Lindor will end up in Detroit this year or next. Adding some bats will perk up the pitching and take pressure off of Miggy so he can relax and focus on being himself.
“Unidentified ALC team”. Process of elimination says White Sox
Sign him, but sign a RH bat like Pillar. Bradley can still hit RHP. Have him avoid LHP and he’s fine.
If teams are basing their interest on a 60 game season then I’d be surprised. Look, the dude is a great centerfielder but he can’t hit. Why would anyone want him for anything other than a 4th OF’er at this point? There are several guys who fit that same profile and I don’t see any of them being talked about as starters.
This year Jackie Bradley Jr. ranked 10th among center fielders in fWAR:
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=10&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=
Over the past five seasons Bradley ranks 11th among center fielders in fWAR:
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=10&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=
Those numbers do not suggest a fourth outfielder.
He ranks 26th out of 54 CFers (minimum 1000 PA) OFFENSIVELY in those 5 years, with a 99 wRC+. Over the last four years, he’s 29th of 45, with 93.
As a hitter he’s streaky and somewhere between average and a bit below average. Combined with elite defense, he’s a clear first-division starter.
Depends what you use to measure his defensive value. bb-ref cites Total Zone and BIS under Advanced Fielding/Sabermetric stats and they don’t agree every season–take 2018 CF, which Total Zone loved and BIS found meh. One thing in common, though, is a lot of his positive “scores” came in just a few seasons, e.g., OF Arm Runs Above Average (CF) total 15 for eight seasons by both TZ and BIS but he got 8 of the 15 from TZ in 2018 and 7 of the 15 from BIS in 2016.
Of course, one could just use their eyes and remember those times when he threw out runners or maybe one could remember all his off-line throws that didn’t.
Again, THIS YEAR. It was a small sample. It’s likely not sustainable. Over the course of 162, his numbers likely would match his career numbers. I doubt he suddenly figured it out.
His career slash is .239/.321/.412. That screams 4th OFer to me. I know I wouldn’t want to pay for that kind of production.
Since the start of the 2019 season Jackie Bradley Jr. ranks 39th among all qualified outfielders with an OPS of .760. Since the start of the 2018 season Bradley ranks 61st among all outfielders with an OPS of .742.
Bradley’s value comes largely from his defense but even on hitting statistics alone Bradley is not a fourth outfielder.
musk – if Bradley only faces RHP and is benched when a LH starts, his career numbers plus his D definitely has him starting somewhere and hitting 8th or 9th on a contender. In total agreement he can still start somewhere as long as there is a right handed bat to replace him in CF.
That’s a popular misconception about Bradley. The issue with Bradley is that he is not a consistent hitter but he can go on an 8-10 week streak where he is one of the best hitters in the league. The problem is, when he goes cold he goes ice cold. JBJ has carried the Sox offense more than once during his tenure. I’d take him back at the right price in a heartbeat.
You are right about the streaks but way off with the length. The most he is ever hot for is two weeks and he’s hardly one of the best hitters in the league for those periods.. When he’s cold, he’s ice cold and an automatic out. His glove just doesn’t make up for this lack of offense.
During the playoffs in 2018 was his hot streak, and yeah he was one of the hottest in the league, and sadly Mookie was cold as ice.
Consistency wins championships.
Detroit needs to pick him up. Finally, a replacement for Bobby Higginson!
If the Red Sox are not going after Springer (which I think they should) then I think they should be looking at bringing JBJ back on a one or two year deal as one option – Duran is not ready yet (if ever). The other option would be to sign a corner OF like Osuna (or Brantley) and move Beni to CF.
Duran will be ready by July at the latest. He added 15 Lbs. of muscle this past season and that equated to a lot more power down at the ATS in 2020. Duran has plus-plus speed, a great eye at the plate and is quickly becoming a plus defender too. Don’t underrate this kid, he’s going to be an asset for Boston once he’s ready.
I like the idea of putting Benny in Center. You have to do something with him.
Yes, you have to do something with Benintendi. I recommend sending him to AAA where he might find his swing again.
Put him on the grounds crew!
He needs to be on a very good offensive team and then he can (for a while) fill a defensive need at a low cost and transition to a defensive replacement and fourth outfielder. NYM tried a defense only CF and it didn’t work out for them.
hes been on kenny Williams radar for years. switches his sox to white, moves to RF, 2/16
Red Sox should let Jackie Bradley go. He’s been great for 5 years but time to move on. Besides we need to do something with Andrew benintendi. He can’t play left anymore we need a Masher in left. Verdugo locked into right just stick Benny in Centerfield and leave him there. He was a center fielder coming up. Let him figure out his Bat and if he doesn’t he’s Jackie Bradley jr. Not quite the amazing defense but good enough. If he doesn’t figure it out then Andrew benintendi is a has-been and see ya later. But I say he’s Jackie right now.. you have to do something with him. Stick him in Center let him figure it out.
Bradley had his worst season at the plate ever by Statcast’s xwOBA and, by far, his best season by results relative to that (wOBA – xwOBA). The odds against the two metrics going in opposite directions like that at random are 3651 to 1, so something real was probably going on. It looks like he was trading hard contact for a better distribution of balls in play, direction-wise.
Teams who look just at the bad xwOBA and think the good OPS was a total fluke will get outbid by teams that think there was something real going on. The team most confident that something real happened is, of course, the Sox, and they know what JBJ was trying to do at the plate. They alone know just how good that season really was and they alone have a solid sense of the offense he’ll provide going forward..
There’s really no good alternative as a bridge to Duran, so a 2-year deal seems likely. I think 2/$16 sounds right.
When there is a vague report about teams being “in contact” with a player, I imagine they are texting.
BOS: hey
JBJ: wassup
BOS: u playin next year?
JBJ: yesh
BOS: for us?
JBJ: depends…
I like the guy but I don’t think he will return.
Let Jackie walk. Get a draft pick for him. Duran is going to be really good. JBJ has a great glove and is a great outfielder but his bat need a work.
No qualifying offer, no draft pick.
Thanks. I forgot about that.
I wouldn’t spend much on him. Saying he’s had a better year than last doesn’t work for me. He played a third of a season in the east. I look at the track record, which others have also pointed out, says he’s a defensive player and nothing more.
“Speculatively speaking”
What a rumor mongerer.
JBJ can’t hit. It’s not that he slumps at the plate, rather he only occasionally figures it out. Frustrating player, let him go.
If Chaim Bloom wants to spend 2/16 on a CF, he should call his old friends in Tampa for Kiermyer….put JBJ and KK in the same vat, toss ’em around, and you get the same guy. And TB is in utter heat to get rid of KK’s contract.
The difference can be made up in money, or prospects..
O, the return for TB? 3 guys named Larry, Curly and Moe.
(Of course, given TB’s success in trading, Larry will win the 2024 Cy Young Award.)
JBJ has the edge in hitting (wRC+) over the last 5 years, 99 to 93, over the last 4 years, 93 to 90, over the last 3 years 95 to 80, and over the last 2 years 98 to 81..
Kiermeier’s making 11..5M and 12M the next two years because he signed his contract in ordinary times. You can get JBJ for 2/8M because every team lost money last year.
JBJ will get a lot more than 2/8m. MLBTR predicts 2/16m.
Meant 2 x$ 8M. That’s paying $4M per win, which is as about a 40% COVID discount.
If the resign him I will never watch them again. Dude is bad
Geez, you Sox fans need to chill with thinking Duran is the greatest thing since sliced bread.
I remember when sliced bread got called up, went 6 for 6, got traded for a pitcher.
NO ONE SAID “Duran is greatest thing since sliced bread”, other than you. Why do people read “suitable replacement” , “good glove” and “top 3 prospect in system”, and hear in their heads “they’re saying this guys going to the hall of fame”?
Because he’s talked about in terms of pluses and plus-pluses. Even his defense, which is…not.
2 years $16 mil is a fair deal if the Sox could swing it. I love JBJ. He saves them with his glove and was post season clutch.
JBJ had a career high babip to go along career low hard hit percentage he was probably extremely lucky in 2020. The advanced numbers just don’t look like a guy who is anything but what he has always been. The only caveat to that is if he actually started hitting against the shift this year. The shift has killed Jackie haven’t looked to see if he finally started hitting his ground balls against the shift id that is the case then maybe something did happen for him last year.
The reason JBJ will get another contract isn’t because he had a good year last year. One good, shortened season shouldn’t change expectations from what we have seen from JBJ for the last four years. He had a .343 BABIP and a less than career average 88.3 ex/velo in 2020.
What’s going to get him a contract is that good hitting CF’ers are difficult to find, so among center fielders his production isn’t so terrible.
I’d pick the Mets as a team that would have serious interest
Worth 7m all day. If that’s the rate, bring him back.
JBJ is the least of their problems. If they can keep him at a reasonable price, do it. Having a good defender in CF who doesn’t hit all that well has never stopped a team from winning.
The degree to which some folks remember JBJ’s slumps and completely forget his streaks is mind-boggling.. The worst number you can come up for him is his being 7% below MLB average over the last 3 years, and that excludes the 2018 postseason! And yet what some people remember is an overall “replacement level” hitter.
Case in point: in 2018 JBJ was hitting .178 / .275 / .288 over 68 games (251 PA) through June 23. Which admittedly is terrible beyond belief.
The rest of the way he hit .282 / .349 / .502 over 76 games (284 PA). He was one of the 10 best HITTING CFers in MLB over more than half the season. He had another 50 PA in the post-season against some of the best pitchers in MLB and had an .835 OPS.
I generally like JBJ. Dont get me wrong.
But the degree to which people overstate and forget exactly what the 2018 postseason was baffles me.
2018 ALDS – NYY – 2 of 15, 3k, 3bb.
2018 ALCS – HOU – 3 of 20, 3k, 4bb.
2018 WS. – LAD – 3 of 15, 3k, 2bb.
This is not the stuff of legend.
ALCS MVP has to cou8nt for something.
Seriously? Batting Average? The 8 hits included 2 2B and 3HR. He had a .360 OBP and .475 SA against some of the best pitchers in baseball. Against which he walked as often as he fanned.
He did nothing against the Yankees, but had a .371 OBP and .571 SA in the last two series, with 10 RBI in 10 G. For a guy known largely for his glove, that IS the stuff of legend,
Welcome Back JBJ!
I’m thinking most RS fans are way over-estimating Duran. I’d love to see him succeed, but there is no chance, whatsoever, that I am turning CF over to someone that 320 AA ABs, no AAA experience, had a .634 OPS in AA, with an 84/23 K/W, and 1 HR. Oh, and can’t field.
Y’all can talk about a virtual training camp all you want, but he absolutely stunk in AA, and you want to give the starting gig in Fenway? Instead of paying JBJ maybe as little as $8M? I don’t think either Casas or Downs are nearly ready, and they are twice as good as Duran.
I’d look forward to a full year of Duran in AAA to prove me wrong, but I’d never even think about starting him in the pros without more experience.
One thing folks are forgetting…
2020 Red Sox pitching STUNK. If there were live, MLB caliber, arms at the alternate site they would’ve been called up to try and contribute.
So, you’ve got pitching even WORSE than what the MLB Red Sox used that were sitting at the alternate site, and that’s what Duran was going up against.
The kid was basically taking BP.
One thing folks are forgetting…
2020 Red Sox pitching STUNK. If there were live, MLB caliber, arms at the altetnate site they would’ve been called up to try and contribute.
So, you’ve got pitching even WORSE than what the MLB Red Sox used that were sitting at the alternate site, and that’s what Duran was going up against.
The kid was basically taking BP.
Yup that Houck kid was terrible when he got called up and he wasn’t there best pitching prospect at the alternate site. Saying that Duran was hitting BP is a joke of a comment. The Red Sox probably kept some arms at the alternate site because they were young and didn’t want to get the clock rolling in a lost season.
BP is overstating it, but I cannot imagine relying on the results of games that are not even really games.
What we know for sure is that he has:
1-Never played AAA.
2-Has only limited experience in AA.
3-And did not do well in AA.
Just for reference purposes, JBJ had a .809 in AA, with 6 HRs, a 49/35 K/W, and a GG.
Duran had a .634 in AA, with 1 HR, and a 128/46 K/W, and no glove to speak of. I hope I am wrong, but his results at an alternate site have to be looked at like some of these AAAA players that light up spring training.
Baseball America has an excellent article on Jarren Duran but since it’s behind a pay wall I will summarize.
As a 22 year old Duran stood out at High A Salem his first full year in professional baseball this earning a promotion to AA Portland. Up until that point the minors presented little challenge for Duran and he had for little need to change his swing mechanics. After his promotion to Portland he was exposed with inside fastballs by pitchers with better control. They basically were knocking the bat out his hands inside. The cool thing is that Duran recognized this and was very proactive in the 2019 offseason and made changes to his swing that could get to the higher quality inside fastballs without selling out his ability to lay off or hit the breaking balls away. These are very good signs that his offense could be better and is why the Red Sox were so high on him at the alternate site. He showed off these changes in spring training before being shut down. It is very encouraging to see a young player recognize a weakness and work hard to eliminate it. Only time will tell but I am very encouraged for the path that Duran seems to be on offensively. Defensively he will be at least average while he doesn’t run great routes his 80 speed can simply make up for route running mistakes. I think he will improve defensively and has an excellent chance of being seen in Boston some time in the 2021 season. I expect that Duran will open in AAA this year.
I expect that Duran will open in AAA this year.
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This is the part I agree with. I’m not saying he can’t be a good player, but I am saying I wouldn’t think of starting him with the RS any more than I would start Casas or Downs.
FWIW, the way I view prospects development, is that they stay at their last level of failure. If you conquer A+, you move up to AA. If you fail in AA, you repeat AA, until you beat it. Then you move to AAA. If you beat that, you get a ticket to the Fens.
FWIW, I view Chavis, Lin, and maybe a couple of others the same way.
In a normal year that is a very sensible way to look at it but in this case since, by all accounts, he played very well at the alternate site, he will start at AAA imo.
Running routes is a skill you need to learn.
I was working as a consultant for the Sox when Jed Hoyer told me he wanted to get Coco Crisp to replace Johnny Damon (back in July or August of ’05). He had amazing numbers in LF but unimpressive stats in CF. But you could project the latter from the former.
It took Crisp 100 games in the minors and about 280 in MLB (including his first year with the Sox) before he blossomed from an average CF defender to a tremendous one. Duran had 240 games in CF coming into this year. It should take him another full season to start running good routes — so given his work ethic he projects to be a plus defender out there by the time his bat is ready.
Quite a few teams could use a gold glove quality center fielder with a below average bat,but none of them are going to pay more than 2 0r 3 million a year for JBJ in a Covid19 baseball economy.
People need to get ready for some shocking drops in wages, excepting Kevin Gausman, which is already beyond being an outlier.
I don’t think that JBJ has been worth anywhere near what he’s been making. a bad batting average and a few caught balls shouldn’t warrant millions.