A potential trade of star third baseman Nolan Arenado remains a legitimate possibility for the Rockies this winter, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports, though Saunders downplays the possibility of Arenado landing with the Dodgers or any other division rival in the NL West. Owner Dick Monfort is “extremely hesitant” to trade Arenado within the National League West, according to Saunders.
The remaining money on his contract limits the number of potential suitors, however, making it easy to project Arenado into the Justin-Turner-sized hole currently at third base for the Dodgers. Trading a face-of-the-franchise superstar like Arenado, however, rarely fits as glove-in-hand as it may seem on the surface. Still, the Rockies only have so many ways to cut payroll, if that’s their goal.
They are warming to the idea of moving Trevor Story, per the latest report from the Athletic’s Nick Groke and Eno Sarris. The Colorado front office has long put off the possibility of dealing their star shortstop. Beyond Arenado and Story, however, their two largest contracts on the 2020 payroll belong to Ian Desmond and Charlie Blackmon, both of whom would be difficult to move. Beyond that quartet, there simply aren’t many simple solutions to create more payroll flexibility while bringing back assets.
Story is facing his final season before free agency. For all his talent, however, it’s a complicated time to move a first-division All-Star shortstop like Story. The Indians were quick to put Francisco Lindor at the front of the line, while Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien, and Ha-Seong Kim from the KBO are attractive alternatives on the free agent market.
On the other hand, taking the risk on one year of Story might be an easier pill to swallow for inquiring teams given the surfeit of peers on the same free agency timeline. Corey Seager, Javier Báez, and Carlos Correa will join Story and Lindor as free agents after 2021 if none are extended.
Unfortunately, the Rockies have fewer and fewer researchers to help the front office make qualified, franchise-altering decisions, writes Groke and Sarris. They lost four of six researchers from their Research and Development team since the end of last season, though it’s important to note that these weren’t employees let go by the organization. And yet, Groke and Sarris provide a relatively grim picture of the Rockies’ current resources, but they are far from the only team in the league dealing with tightened belts and smaller staffs. The full article from the Athletic on the state of affairs in Colorado is well worth a read.
Story isn’t getting dealt until the deadline. Arenado isn’t getting traded until after his second opt out. In other words, nothing is happening.
Not dealing Story until deadline is very risky, and likely reduces his trade value as a 2 month rental. As in every trade, it will depend on what other teams offer in return for Story.
@socalbum, not to mention that a player traded in his final year can’t receive a QO. He has to be dealt before the season starts for the acquiring team to have that option. This lessens his value and would so lessen the return even further.
I saw that Arensdo is opting out after the 2021 season.
I believe that would be foolish due to the economic state the game is in today.
Not a chance he walks away from $35M a year…just won’t happen.
I don’t think Arenado is opting out of that deal regardless of his 2021 season. He would be worth more in trade in my opinion if you thought he was going to opt out and not be stuck with the rest of that contract.
Fans have it backwards, they think opt outs are bad for the teams. Opt outs are great for teams when the player opts out. Every single time a team gets out of a 100 million dollar commitment to a player in their 30s it’s a great deal for a team.
I agree. He is an aging player with a ridiculous contract. He is a great 3rd baseman but he has to realize his value may drop away from Denver. Plus, Denver is a nice city with a great stadium. He won’t win there, but he can enjoy life there. In my experience, location goes a long way.
@iverbure opt-outs are HORRIBLE for teams. The player opts out if and only if the team doesn’t want him to. If he opts out it means you WANT to have a $100m commitment to the player because he is producing surplus value on the $100m. Or at the very least it means you could trade him for a haul of prospects if it weren’t for the opt-out.
On the contrary, an aging player like him may want to try to win a ring sense he already got paid so maybe he does opt out for a 20-25 mil contract at the dodgers or the Braves
He’s a heck of a 3rd baseman, with a bat AND a glove
jimthegoat gets it right. Opt-outs give the player an opportunity to capture additional market value if it increases, so at least in theory the team got some sort of discount on the contract for including the opt-out. Putting an exact cash value on one is difficult, but it isn’t nothing, or the teams would not offer them. In Arenado’s case his contract is significantly under water so it’s highly unlikely that he would opt-out. The most likely scenario for him to opt-out is he’s still playing in Colorado and is willing to risk leaving money on the table to get out of there.
@BlueSkies_LA and that additional market value comes at the expense of his original team.
I love how insistent so many are that he’s never walk away from 35M a year. Arenado minimum gets 30M aav in 2021 as the top 3B on the market. Superstars get paid
You act like he’s retiring. He’s leaving a toxic environment and likely getting similar and potentially more money. You’re not asking him to tear up the rest of the deal and go to couch
So it’s the most expensive game of chicken you’ll ever see. But pretending it’ll never happen is foolhardy
Furthermore, as with Story, you want to trade for Arenado now if you think he may opt out, to protect yourself with the QO. Traded at deadline then opts out? No QO
Why does everyone say he’s am aging player? The dudes 29 and should still have a chunk of his prime left
@Laughing@You people keep saying that a player will opt-out if they don’t like their current team even if it means having to take a paycut. But only time that has actually happened in this decade was with AJ Burnett and the Phillies. People said the same thing about James Shields and Ian Kennedy. So much for that.
@jim none of those guys were in this situation with the FO and I never said it’s a guarantee he loses money. Honestly, I think he may get a lower AAV but more years, and therefore more money, if anything
He’s a superstar. He can go where he wants, if he has an Arenadao- esque 2021 of course
How many *superstars*, top at their position guys, have an opt out decision at 29 to be the top FA on the market, while having a visible multi year spat with the FO and calling them liars on the record?
That is the only time it would be a valid comparison, with all of those factors. And there isn’t one. So I don’t really care what other opt outs have done. I really don’t
If he can get more $ of course he’s opting out. But if he can’t I doubt it, spat with the FO notwithstanding. Like I said, the only player who has actually done that in the last 10 years is AJ Burnett.
@jimgoat presumably, the Rockies got some kind of financial offset in exchange for giving Nolan the opt-out. Like maybe they gave him the opt-out in lieu of an extra year or a higher AAV. Since the opt-out only matters if the player uses it, if Nolan doesn’t opt out then it means the Rockies got him for less $ without giving him anything in return. So in that way, the opt-out does benefit the Rockies.
You are correct, however, that if Nolan opts out and signs for more $ then that means the opt-out hurt the Rockies and it’s pretty ridiculous that anyone would suggest otherwise. Even if they wanted to be free of his contract, he would have at least figured to draw some trade interest without the opt-out.
He’s not opting out in order to give up 10-15 million a year. No way.
@ jimthegoat I agreed with you up to that point. I don’t see where it does except sort of metaphorically. If a player opts out, whatever his original team paid him for the time he played for them should reflect the discount they got for including the opt-out in his contract. They can’t lose or gain anything after that.
@BlueSkies_LA a lot of people say opt outs benefit teams because if he opts out it means he provided value on the front end and then they can let someone else pay for his eventual decline years. The problem with that thinking is if he opts out it means he played well enough that he would have had trade value and the opt-out robs them of the ability to trade the player for value. And then when you bring that up to the people pushing this argument their heads explode and they start throwing a bunch of arguments at the wall about how the prospects the team gets in the trade aren’t guaranteed to pan out and about how there are frictional costs to trading an All Star coming off a productive season as if letting said All Star walk for nothing is somehow better.
Opt outs are team friendly and it’s not debatable. Payroll flexibility is more valuable to any GM than a player locked in for 8 more years. Again it isn’t debatable.
And I got news for you, if Arenado puts up great numbers and opts out and the Rockies get nothing, they win the trade. At this point its almost the best case scenario. It’s certainly better than paying some of his salary every year for him to play on the dodgers.
no way he opts out! 0.0 chance
Nolan only has one opt-out. And why wait to move Story? He’s already a proven commodity. At the deadline he will be a proven commodity with 1/3 as much club control that the acquiring team can no longer QO.
I know it’s highly unlikely, I still hope he opts out and sticks it to the Rockies FO. The way Monfort runs the show is a disgrace. The way Birdich handled the situation is a joke. They haven’t even talked. That’s not me saying that, that’s straight from Jeff’s mouth. The relationship is flat out dysfunctional at this point and something has to give.
I know it’s easy for me to say but I wish he’d opt out. We all know he won’t come close to 34 or whatever it is per, but he can still get 20-25 from almost any big market team he wants to play for that has mutual interest. You already are making more than you ever thought you would, as long as you ain’t mike Tyson or Holyfield you will never burn through that. Do athletes have that bad of money management skills? Unfortunately yes.
However, he doesn’t strike me as a rolls Royce driving, multiple mansion buying, jet flying, son of a gun. So in the words of Lloyd Christmas…… “you’re telling me there’s a chance”. Lol
Watch the 30 for 30 episode from early in season 2 called broke. There’s plenty of athletes who have went broke besides Tyson and Holyfield. Most NFL players are broke according to that episode.
Should have tried hard to trade Blackmon and $$$ to White Sox before they signed Eaton.
I nearly soiled myself when I saw Charlie Blackmon is under contract for $52.5 (includes 2 player options). The Rockies brought this mess on themselves.
He’s a heck of a player still
Not that bad a deal actually, at least in the pre-COVID era. Dude still rakes, although his defense is awful.
Especially since it’s for only one year!
Oh wait, it’s for three years.
I think it’d be dumb to keep Story. One year left, one of the top shortstops in baseball. His value and market are likely to go down if they wait to deal him and, if they keep him, they’ll just get a QO pick. Plus, they could save some money by moving him. Just about anyone interested in Lindor should also be in on Story; their values are pretty similar.
I’m not sure any team will take on Story contract until all fans are back. I don’t see any of the big-time shortstops getting trade till after the 2021 season. Clevland can’t get a bidding war for Lindor, they may not get him traded before the season starts.
Story makes $18 million next year. I don’t think many teams would shy away from that.
Exactly. Someone needs to acquire him. Problem is, Rox might ask a bit much especially for him being a young shortstop, as well as a potential future face of the franchise
The Rockies also have the option of kicking in money to boost their return, essentially buying prospects. $18M for Story is not unreasonable, even in this economic climate, especially when that exposure is for only one year and an acquiring team could mitigate the cost somewhat by extending a QO and getting that pick back.
You are making the assumption that the new agreement will still contain picks for QO players. Story become a FA at the same time the CBA expires.
“ I don’t see any of the big-time shortstops getting trade till after the 2021 season. ”
So they’re going to be traded as free agents? After the 2021 season they are going for 200M+ not a trade
Since the Mets have reportedly been in on almost every big name on the free agent and trade market here’s a proposal. Arenado for McNeil, Brett Baty , Matthew Allan
How much $ are the rockies eating?
people dont get it do they? McNeil is a hitting machine who can play all over the place and is making very little. he’s one of the most valuable players in baseball and certainly moreso then anyone on a 9 digit contract
Arenado’s OPS+ over the last 3 years is 125 vs McNeil’s 139. Sure, Arenado is a much better defensive 3B, but he’s not $34.5m/yr better (especially not away from Coors). McNeil rips the ball no matter where he plays.
$35m/yr could get you Springer and McCann (two positions you actually need to fill) and you’d still have McNeil.
Arenado rakes anytime anywhere
@deeroq, Last I checked McNeil isn’t a third basemen. Hard to compare someone’s ops+ that plays center and multiple positions and only has played two or three years, to a guy who gets docked for playing in Coors.
These proposals for Mets trades are absurd. They always start with a player who himself is just as good as the player coming back, and THEN add on everything but the kitchen sink. The Mets have some seriously undervalued players.
The Mets already said acquisitions are coming through free agency, they are not looking to trade prospects to build next season’s roster.
Thank you for saying this. There are so many huge trade proposals for the Mets in these comments even though they’ve already said they’re not going to do trades.
What about if they started the package with JD Davis plus something low level in exchange for taking on the full contract?
Defense with Arenado and Giminez on the left side would be a lot of fun to watch!
Honestly, I don’t think the Rockies would find a taker for his full contract if they just offered him for no return. I’d find it very hard to believe he’d get an offer even close to that if he were on the FA market now.
Then, Alderson would pass. And Cohen has already spoken about spending, but spending wisely. Thanks for the reply.
They didn’t say they won’t do trades. The said they were inclined not to trade prospects. Which is fine because they don’t have many, anyway. What the Rockies (and the Indians) would want isn’t prospects anyway, but the good surplus major leaguers they have, like JD Davis (if they get Arenado) or Nimmo (if they get Springer) or Dom Smith. McNeil isn’t surplus anymore since Cano get suspended.
I hope Dom Smith is untouchable. I think he’s going to be the second best hitter on the team – as constituted – second to Conforto.
@why not…… they can’t trade, they don’t have enough of a farm to trade with. Now if the Mets did want him and he waived his ntc, then Colorado would take a bag of chips to unload him. Least then they would have a real third basemen instead of that jd davis guy who can’t break a 1 war. But that won’t happen.
I’m sure he wouldn’t want to play for the Mets anyways, he’s tired of coming in last place as it is.
Mets have stated they will not do trades. they want to fill their need with free agents.
No thank you to that, besides Arenado $35 mil a year no way, he can hit more hrs and rbis than McNeil but is that worth $30ish mil more than McNeil and Baty and Allan, it’s a big NO.
Not going to happen, but, Jays trading for Arenado and absorbing Blackmon would be interesting. Blackmon can still play CF and the ballparks in the AL East are much smaller to patrol compared to Coors field.
I agree Frank. Colorado would need to absorb Roark and Grichuk. Add a prospect and if Colorado wants a 2nd prospect the Jays should ask for Freeland. I’d bench Blackmon against lefties to keep his body healthy. Jays should be looking at this. If Arenado opts out they QO him and gain a draft pick while saving $$$ for a big free agent.
Trust me as a Rockies fan, you don’t want Blackmon playing CF at this point in his career.
Besides, we’d rather have somebody take Desmond off our hands.
Trust us, Blackmon would be the best option in CF! But hey, Jays should scoop Desmond too if it means dropping Roark and Grichuk.
I love when new fans suggest getting rid of Roark and Grichuk for worst contracts that last longer. The team is stuck with Roark just like they were with Morales unless they waive him. If they trade him your making the problem worst by getting a longer worst contract. Good to see new fans even if their suggestions are absurd.
Bad contract for bad contract happens constantly. Morales is a bad example because he was one-dimensional and a DH, and not a good one by that time. Roark and Grichuk’s contracts with prospects absolutely gets it done with the Rockies. That is the only way they receive prospects while the Jays take the big contract on of Arenado along with a potential opt out.
I see nothing has changed with you IverB; insult without discussion or thought. Good to see you are still useless in thought.
Yeah the Jays have always struck me as the most likely destination for Arenado if he gets traded. Something like Arenado and Jon Gray for Grichuk, Tellez, and a couple good prospects (of which the Jays have many).
And already reports that what I said might ring true. IverB is hiding as he should. Jays could go for Arenado and give up Grichuk and Roars in the deal to offset some salary. Package could happen.
Why on earth would I be hiding?
I don’t think there is a worse owner/GM combo than Monfort and Bridich. The level of incompetence is truly stunning.
It’s probably not wise to sign your star to a mega contract based on that promise that you build a championship team around him and then spend 2 years adding nothing to the team.
The Arenado contract never made sense for the Rockies unless they planned to drastically alter their spending habits.
They were decent for a year or two and convinced themselves they were competitors. A team better be certain they can compete before they make big moves like this, though. It’s getting this decision wrong that led the White Sox to trading Tatis, Jr., for a washed-up James Shields and the Phillies and Reds to go crazy in FA only to start trading away their pieces to shed payroll.
Perhaps they were unrealistic about their team. They are a team with too many holes and not enough cheap ways to fill them with productive players. Teams like that really have no business dropping 30m/yr on a single player, especially when they are a more middle of the road payroll team.
I’d say mid to lower market teams have no business ever having a 30 mil dollar player unless it’s for one or two years not 8-10 years.
It was the contracts around Arenado that did not make sense and put them in this bind
If the relievers and Desmond and Blackmon had performed to their deals, they aren’t trading or talking about trading Arenado right now imo. They got cold feet after every deal seemingly blew up in their face, right after promising Arenado to not get cold feet
I don’t think any team would take Blackmon contract even for a player to be named later.
They might if the Rockies kick in some $$$.
i normally think trades within divisions are fine, but if its someone who will be there until you expect to be competitive again its certainly ill advised.
Depends on who you’re getting in return. If you’re getting top prospects, it’s still very possible to win that trade.
but unless you’re getting significantly better prospects some of that benefit is mittigated by having to play the guy you traded more. if ita someone as good as Arenado then that’s significant.
Maybe, but it also depends on what that team’s other options are. The Dodgers won’t be kept down by not getting Arenado. They’d transition to a guy like Bryant. So they’d still be very good, but the Rockies won’t be better and will continue to pay Arenado. In an ideal world, yes, you deny your rivals and boost your own roster. They have the misfortune, though, of being in the same division as a very-deep-pocketed team with a strong farm system. They won’t knock them down by refusing to trade with them. Plus, the Dodgers have a long history of drafting and developing prospects well. Colorado could clearly use an influx of good prospects. I say go with the best deal, intra-division or not.
The Rockies are going to have to pay some of Arenado’s contract to move him so paying him to play on the Dodgers is a PR nightmare
Without a trade of Arenado, they won’t get prospects and then only if they send a lot of cash with him
The Rockies aren’t getting much unless they send like half of Arenado contract 100,000 million. Even then there are only maybe 3 or 4 teams that can take on his contract. I don’t think the Dodgers would take Arenado’s contract even then.
People seem to think this Covid epidemic is going to last forever. It’s not. People will come back eventually and the stadiums will eventually fill again. Money will come back then. Arenado’s deal is a bit of an overpay, especially if he doesn’t return to form (which I’d expect him to). I can see the Rockies being asked to kick in a small amount of money per year (providing he doesn’t opt out), but paying down half the deal is ridiculous. His high cost may limit his market, but I don’t think he’s unmovable.
The extension that he signed was ~FA value for him @ the time it was signed. He’s now lost time on the front end of that (which you’d assume would be the most valuable seasons on the contract) as well as struggled in 2020 (granted SSS, so i’m not sure how much stock teams would even put in that), I think it’s fair to assume his contract is under water a fair bit. You’re probably correct that it’s not half, i assumed that was hyperbole, but i think it’d be more than a small amount/yr.
You know he’ll be 29 on Opening Day (if the season opens on time), right? The contract only goes through is age 35 season and gets cheaper toward the end. It’s not like he’s past his prime and in some sort of steep decline now.
What age do you think players generally start to decline at?
If they don’t trade Story, it’s going to be a long road back for that team. New Zips projections don’t look good for them winning many games with or without him anyway and they don’t exactly have a great system or money to spend. What would it take to get Marquez and Desmond? Give them some high end prospects and free up some money.
Marquez would bring back a nice return. I’d expect his numbers to improve once he gets out of Coors. But yeah, they should start a full-on rebuild. Blow it up and stockpile all the prospects they can. They have some nice pieces; unfortunately, Story’s on his last year and Arenado’s expensive (and could still opt out later). They’d still get enough of a return for Story and Marquez to jump start a rebuild.
Complete teardown. Move Story and Arenado for the best deal(s). German 3 years left plus one club option would net a bounty, too. Freeland 1st year Arb and Gray would both net returns as well. Blackmon and Desmond too waterlogged to move. The West is awfully stacked right now; I’d want to get ahead on a rebuild ASAP.
I’m looking forward to (hopefully) some rumors tying the Yankees to German Marquez. New York definitely has the pieces to make a deal for talent like that
What do think such a deal would look like, keeping in mind his years of control (3 yrs for $33.5M and an option for $16M) and that he’d only be 26 this coming year?
Yes, and they’ve been linked to him before. A deal for he and Story would be nice, but they’d have to literally give up the farm to do it, unless the ROX need money that bad. I think Story would perform nicely in Yankee Stadium and is underrated outside Colorado, similarly to DJ, which will keep his value lower than Lindor. Yankees will get a true long-term SS, and a desperately needed SP since I just read they’ve had no contact with Tanaka thus far. At that point, they would need a catcher (I seriously doubt JTR and I think he wants too much for too long).
For both Story and Marquez, yeah, that would require a haul. Thank you for not proposing Sanchez and Andujar. I’m tired of seeing their names come up in fan proposals like they have real trade value..
I like that! A true long term shortstop… On a one year contract! Hilarious!!!
@PinstripedPride- Agreed, German Marquez is definitely worth trading for if your the Yankees. Taking on his contract will not cost you Deivi Garcia or Clarke Schmidt either. Luis Gil a power righty and a minor league pitcher like Contreras would likely be two of the pieces going back to Colorado.
Yanks4Likfe, You don’t think Marquez would cost at least one of Garcia or Schmidt or equivalent talent? Fangraphs has him ranked #22 in trade value. He’s a 3.5-4 WAR player with 4 years of control and only 25. I think there is a ton of value on that contract.
Why is Blackmon so hard to move? I know he’s not cheap, but if the Rox kicked in a few million, would Charlie really be any more expensive than other comparable OFs with his value? I would love to see Blackmon (a Georgia boy!) in LF for Atlanta if Ozuna can’t be re-signed. Seems like moving Blackmon would also create some payroll flexibility while they figure out the Story/Arenado stuff
With his deplorable defense, they’d have to eat about half of his salary to make it worth it. Plus, he’s not exactly young anymore.
he can’t even play zero war in the outfield after adjustment for the park. Can he play first Desmond can’t be any worse than blackmon?
Makes no sense to not want to trade him in the division unless Colorado actually considers themselves contenders still.
No, it makes a bunch of sense. They can stockpile prospects who will come up when Arenado’s either moved on or is older. The Dodgers are always going to have deep pockets and so will always be a problem. What matters is getting the best package back. It’s not like they can keep the Dodgers down by denying them Arenado.
If he was a rental then yes, but the problem with this theory is that Arenado’s contract runs through 2026. So if they give him to the Dodgers, the Rockies could do a rebuild aiming to compete again in 3 years for 2024 and then Arenado would still be causing them problems for 3 more years before he hits FA again.
Same thing if they give Arenado to the Giants, They’re just helping creating another obstacle in their way to the playoffs because it makes SF that much harder to overcome in the standings for the next 6 years.
But they’d have those prospects for 3 (or 4, if they are still allowed to play service time games) years after that Arenado’s deal is up. I’d actually say dealing him to the Giants is worse because that makes them a significantly better team, meaning it’d be harder to land a WC. The Dodgers being strong is almost certain to happen regardless of whether they get Arenado.
@CNichols Arenado has an opt-out after 2021. So if he is still in LA/SF in 2024 it means he isn’t helping them.
@jimthegoat thats a valid point and the opt-out is a concern, (for what its worth, I don’t they can trade him until he declines the opt-out anyways) but it’s not that black and white. He’ll only be 33 in 2024, he could have chosen to not opt-out and then still be a productive player thereafter, it would just be on a contract thats not efficient.
He put up between 5-6 fWAR per year between 2016-2019. Say he drops some and then is just putting up around 4 fWAR per year from 2021 through 2025. Thats still more production than LAD got out of Justin Turner in 2019, it just might not be good enough to beat $35M per year on the open market, so he might decide not to opt out. On the field though, if he’s still on the Dodgers thats a problem because it makes them that much harder to chase in the standings.
The issue is, Arenado will be doing so at a cost of $15M more per year than what Turner cost, so yes there is less value to the Dodgers, but the Dodgers and the Giants have deep pockets, so even if its less efficient from a $ per win standpoint, they can afford it and the Rockies still have to deal with a very good 3B on a team within their division.
If Arenado doesn’t opt out it means the Dodgers could have gotten his production for less in free agency. Dumping an underwater contract on a division rival is the greatest thing that could ever happen. The Dodgers were doing cartwheels when they dumped Matt Kemp’s decaying carcass on the Padres, for instance.
Guess who has negative trade value and is an underwater contract per Baseball Trade Values? Mookie Betts.
It’s perfectly fine for LAD to be underwater on Mookie Betts, because he’s probably going to be a 6+WAR player next year and they can afford to pay him. SD on the other hand could not afford a crappy contract like Kemp’s, so yes that was a bad move. The rules are different when you can afford to absorb salary.
By the same logic that you’re using, the Dodgers taking on the “underwater” contract that they just made with Betts is a great thing for the Rockies. In reality, it’s not, he’s going to be on the field, stopping the Rockies from making the playoffs. Same thing with Arenado if he goes to LA.
In theory, the player (or more likely, players) the Dodgers could have signed for the money they are paying Mookie Betts would have produced more WAR over the course of that contract than Betts will. Their names might not be as sexy as Mookie Betts, but more productive. And it’s the same way with the Dodgers trading for Nolan Arenado. Again, in theory.
Rockies have tied an anvil around their own neck with the arrenado contract.
Rockies hands are tied trying to move that contract.only deep pocket teams would only consider taking on that contract so that will limit the return.
Best return on story will be before the season starts.
Even in the best of economic times it would be incredibly difficult to trade a contract like Arenado’s. It’s hard to imagine any team today taking that on even if COL pays down a significant portion. Rockies are just gonna have to ride it out and trade off everyone else even if the returns are underwhelming.
The Rockies are a poverty franchise. The Giants and Dodgers are 2 of the few teams that can take on Arenado’s contract without hesitation and the Rockies don’t want to deal with them because they have a faux rivalry with them in their deluded heads
The Rockies have no Rivalry except there selves.
The Rockies have always signed a large and long contract which never works out. The big contract for prime years, but when you sign big contracts for long past their prime they become untradeable.
Paying Arenado that Trout-level money was always a bizarre decision for the Rockies.
Sure, but in fairness, Trout gave a sizeable discount to the Angels. He could have gotten (and is worth) more.
It was market rate. Rendon got 36M aav a year later
Story to the Angels..I can feel it deep in my plums
maybe next year in FA
I agree..for it to happen this year they will need to be creative..maybe unload the Upton contract
If only Pittsburgh cared to spend money. Such a ridiculously low payroll right now, adding Blackmon for OF or Story for SS would be decent gets (both positions of need).. Eat all the payroll to keep the outgoing pieces minimal.
But what does this do for Pittsburgh? They’re not like a couple pieces away from contention, they have a lot of needs to address before they can compete again.
If you put both Blackmon and Story on the Pirates, you increase payroll in 2021 by like $40M and then they’re still a below .500 team. Then after 2021 Story leaves via FA, and you owe a 35 year old Blackmon $21M in 2022.
I agree that the Pirates should spend more, but moves like this aren’t going to get them there.
So commenters on this site seem to have very different opinions on Nolan’s value (or lack thereof). Baseball Trade Values has him at a -$43.7m surplus value for what it’s worth. If that is indeed the case I think it’s pretty certain that Nolan doesn’t opt-out. But a showing anywhere close to his career norms in 2021 will easily change that. I honestly don’t see him getting traded until next offseason as teams are going to want clarity on the opt-out before trading for him.
He’s owed almost 200 million and on the wrong side of 30. He’s not opting out. He’ll never get an offer bigger than that at this point. He’s not opting out.
Opt-out after the season and a bad shoulder last season may make it impossible for the Rockies to trade Arenado for any actual value
I don’t know how the Rockies will be able to move Arrenado without offsetting contracts in return in this market.
It would have to be something like trading Arrenado to the Cubs for Bryant and Kimbrel. Rockies don’t save any money at first but get two players that can be moved and only have 1 year remaining on their deals so Rockies would get a full $35 million savings per a year after the 2021 season and also have the chance to move both players still as well. Lot easier to move Bryant’s 1 year $20 million deal than Arrenado massive contract.
Arenado is reportedly upset with Bridich and Montfort because they are aren’t building a competitive team around him. Seems to me if they traded Story it would further upset him, and he might publicly ask to be traded, knocking management’s position down another notch.
Rockies should trade within the division ifthat is the best option. They are not close to contending. Last game I attended they played the Cubs and there were more Cub fans than Rockies. Build something and fans will attend, but need more pitching drafted and better development in minors. New GM and Player Development would greatly help.
The Dodgers have no need for Arenado. They just won a World Series without him and will have Hoese ready to take over 3B in 2022. No way Friedman takes on that contract when re-signing Seager, a better hitter, is a greater priority. Something tells me we’ve already seen the best of Nolan Arenado. Let someone else pay for the success he had in Colorado.
Seeing all the terrible decisions made by the rockies front office and seeing how terrible their ownership is almost makes me feel sorry for rockies fans. Then every year they get off to a hot start and talk so much trash to everyone and I go back to laughing at the whole situation. They’re not gonna get out of that cycle until they get new owners.
They got off to a 3-12 start in 2019 and never recovered. Meanwhile, the stabilizing force that was D.J. LeMahieu was killing it for the Yankees. Yet another terrible decision as the Yankees got two years of prime LeMahieu for just $24 million while the Rockies didn’t even try to re-sign him, By the time they recover from the Arenado and Story debacle they will be so far in the basement it will take the rest of the decade to climb back out. And we know the debacle is coming. But at least they’ll be able to say they got six years of Ian Desmond, for more money than they ever considered paying LeMahieu and David Dahl combined.
Cey hey…. comment of the year. Them basement dwellers should just trade him to whoever gives up a bag of chips. They won’t compete with or without him.
Troutgolf, it made no sense letting Dahl go for what they were paying him and the years of control. Bring him back and if he produces, trade him at the deadline. Instead, they get nothing and are still overpaying the likes of Desmoind. If this is a rebuild, they are off to a terrible start.
Rockies got off to an 11-2 or 11-3 start in 2020. Didn’t recover their either.
A short schedule was their only chance to catch lightning in a bottle and be competitive. They still couldn’t do it. Had it been a full season, they would have lost 95.
No kidding…
Arenado has a full no trade clause; no??
Mets have money now. And they need defense in the worst way. Take both Nolan and Trevor for Alonso, Thor and Diaz. Mets move Smith to 1B and sign Springer to play CF. Sign Hand to close, Bauer and McAnn.
Now that’s funny.
Arenado already turning into bad contract and bad attitude towards team. Wont opt out as he can’t get more than he has contracted for with a bad shoulder and fairly mundane offensive numbers since June 2019. He’s not getting better and when team goes south, he’s driving it. Not a leader but incredible stats for past 8 years overall. Unfortunately for all, stats have been driven by thin air. This will be an albatross contract over the Rockies for the next 6 years which will likely haunt them far longer.
As a Dodger fan, I don’t get the blind infatuation with Arenado. Let me start off by saying that I don’t think either of Arenado or Story gets traded this winter (because Colorado is run by a bunch of idiots), much less to the Dodgers (because Colorado is run by a bunch of idiots). But between the two, there are more factors to suggest that Story should be the player to trade for, not Arenado.
1.) Arenado has that huge, preposterous contract. That (coupled with Betts’ big contract) will detract from having a chance to sign our own (better) players, like Seager, Bellinger, Buehler, Urias. And for those that say he can opt-out after 2021, there is no logic to that statement. Arenado is unlikely opting out if he is traded to his childhood team AND because of how the current market is shaping out to be. It’d be foolish to leave all that guaranteed money on the table when the future of baseball is shaky, to say the least.
2.) The prospect capital for Arenado will be tremendous because Colorado will base his trade value off of 6 years (when his contract expires in 2026), not 1 year (when he can opt-out after 2021).
3.) Trevor Story would cost significanly less in terms of prospects because he is a guaranteed free agent after this season. That’s not to say that a trade for Story wouldn’t cost a bit, but it wouldn’t gut our top farm resources like a trade for Arenado would.
4.) While it’s an unknown how either would perform not calling Coors Field home for half a season, there’s encouraging data that suggests they could succeed and even thrive without being burdened by Coors Field’s lingering effects. However, Story seems like the safer bet due to his elite batted ball profile. He strikes out a lot, but he also hits the ball extremely hard. He’s also improved year-to-year in terms of plate discipline.
5.) Story is the complete player, in that he’s an elite defender at an elite position, as well as literally being one of the fastest players in all of baseball. Arenado has no speed at all and you can’t argue with his still-elite defense at 3rd base. However, that’s at 3rd. There’s no arguing that shortstop is way more valuable than third (obviously), but as batted ball data suggests, 3rd base is actually the 2nd least important defensive position, ahead of 1st base. You give me the option of an elite shortstop over an elite 3rd baseman, and it’s no contest. I’m taking the shortstop.
6.) The Dodgers don’t need either of them. They are perfectly positioned to contend year in and out as is. Sure they can stand to splurge on a few key upgrades. But it doesn’t automatically give them a World Series. No move does. It’s best to stay the course and trust the process, as proven this past season.
Arenado’s contract guaranteed money by year:
2021: $35m
2022: $35m
2023: $35m
2024: $35m
2025: $32m
2026: $27m
So here’s owed $199m over 6 years. At $33m AAV for 6 years, taking player into mid 30’s, the contract is likely underwater. Each team would need to decide by how much but at best it’s neutral. Truly elite defender with typically excellent offense until the past year and one third where numbers dropped off somewhat. Bottom line a top 10% type position player without a doubt. I think in this case he should be traded but I sincerely doubt the haul will be outrageous. I would guess he returns less than what RedSox received for Mookie Betts. That said, it’s still a win for both sides as Rockies aren’t likely to compete for playoff spot in 2021 (and probably next year or two afterwards). Arenado desires opportunity to win and likely prefers financially to decline his opt-out. Rockies need to generate multiple bidders via trade to force a stronger trade return.
Impossible to know how different Arenado’s offense will be without 50% of games at mile high. That said, despite tangible splits date I’m not convinced he’ll be less impactful on offense. Playing in Colorado altitude is brutal on your body so it’s reasonable to believe his numbers will be very good and if he’s that miserable there, maybe he can return to exceptional production from several seasons ago (in which case he might even outperform his contract for at least the first few years in a new home.