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Latest On League, MLBPA Discussions Over Player Access To Spring Camps

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Major League Baseball issued a memorandum to all 30 teams earlier today that addressed multiple topics, most notably the halt of any organized player workouts at Spring Training facilities.  The plans outlined in the memo will be in place at least through Monday’s planned conference call between the teams and Commissioner Rob Manfred, and alterations could continue to be made Monday or in the days to come based on further developments concerning the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post detailed some of the main points of the memo, which focused primarily on immediate issues concerning Spring Training matters.  Such bigger-picture topics as a revised schedule were discussed between the league and the union, Sherman noted, though no decisions were made since it is too early to know when the season could potentially get underway.

The memo highlights many concerns that the MLBPA raised with the league over the last few days, as outlined by Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic (subscription required).  The Orioles, Brewers, Braves, Marlins and Mets were all cited in player complaints to the union about a lack of access to facilities.  As Rosenthal and Drellich put it, “even as MLB and the PA technically agree that facilities are to be open to major league players for now, they differ about what ’open’ means.”

As outlined in today’s memo, players on a 40-man roster “must be permitted to remain at the Club’s Spring Training site, and are eligible to receive their usual Spring Training allowances.”  Non-roster players were instructed to return to their normal homes, though such players with injury problems were allowed to stay in camp to receive treatment from team medical staffers, and “Clubs should work…to provide suitable accommodations” for any player who wished to remain in the United States rather than another country, or for American players “who reside in high-risk areas in the United States.”

The stability of a team facility offers obvious appeal to players who wish to keep training in preparation for whenever the season begins, though MLB and the individual teams have similarly understandable concerns about keeping players gathered in any sort of clustered situation.  “In the view of several executives and MLB officials, any objection to limited access in the middle of a public health crisis misses the larger point of trying to keep players safe,” Rosenthal and Drellich wrote, adding that teams are also worried about older staff members at the facilities who could be at greater risk of catching the coronavirus.

Reports: MLB Season Could Be Delayed Until Memorial Day Weekend

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6:55PM: The Center Of Disease Control And Prevention has issued a recommendation against any events of 50 or more people over the next eight weeks in the United States.  That eight-week timeline would last until May 9, so assuming that the health situation stabilizes within those eight weeks, a Memorial Day start to baseball season wouldn’t seem feasible, given the necessary time required for preseason preparations.

4:56PM: With MLB operations on hold due to the spread of the coronavirus, it’s becoming increasingly likely that the season remains on hold until at least Memorial Day weekend, according to a report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Such a scenario would push back the beginning of the regular season to late May. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman expressed a similar sentiment, saying that the commencement of the season “anytime before June would be viewed as welcome.”

Officially, the beginning of the regular season has been delayed for a minimum of two weeks, which points to April 9 as the earliest date for the sport’s return. But in light of recent developments, that date is looking more and more like a mere pipe dream. Indeed, Robert Murray reports that the MLBPA has advised players to consider returning to the place they would be most comfortable for the next 4-6 weeks. The Athletic writers Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich reported yesterday that it was unlikely for the season to begin before May.

In light of a memo distributed by MLB this morning, minor leaguers have been sent home and organized group workouts at team facilities have been halted. Yesterday, it looked like a host of teams were planning to stick together despite the stoppage, but it’s expected that more and more clubs will vacate their Spring Training facilities in the coming days. And with affiliated baseball discovering its first confirmed case of the virus this morning, teams may be more hesitant to keep players grouped together.

By all accounts, MLB is still aiming to play a 162-game season, but the feasibility of that goal will no doubt be challenged by any significant setback. If indeed the season is delayed until Memorial Day or June, a truncated season may be in order. Otherwise, we might be looking (speculatively) at December World Series games in neutral sites. Of course, specifics on this front are scarce and will remain nebulous until the situation gains clarity.

The consequences of a delayed regular season are wide-ranging, and the subsequent questions that must be resolved will be manifold. Issues such as compensation (especially for minor league players and stadium staff), service time, schedule structure, workouts, and plenty more will need to be sorted out before the 2020 campaign may carry on.

MiLB Player Tests Positive For Coronavirus

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A player in the Yankees’ farm system has tested positive for coronavirus, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (via Twitter). He becomes the first known case in pro baseball. The player was quarantined Friday morning.

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, all Yankees minor leaguers have been instructed to self-quarantine in their hotel rooms for the next two weeks. GM Brian Cashman told reporters including The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler that the organization has only administered one coronavirus test (this positive one) thus far. Meanwhile, the team’s minor league complex will remain closed until March 25 at the earliest.

The player involved was only on the minor-league side of Yankees’ camp this spring, Passan adds. The minor-league complex has been closed since, although that was part of the team’s plan regardless, reports Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News (Twitter link). That the player who tested positive wasn’t in major league camp hardly means MLB is insulated from the disease, of course.

It seemed like only a matter of time before the virus spread to the affiliated ranks. The NBA quickly suspended its season once the first player tested positive this week. MLB, of course, since followed suit, and teams were already set to cease group-organized workouts at their facilities. MLB has already sent minor-leaguers home; it seems the only reason the league hasn’t done the same with players on 40-man rosters is a lack of authority to do so under the collective bargaining agreement.

MLB Teams Expected To Halt Organized Group Workouts

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MLB is set to advise teams against conducting organized group workouts at team facilities, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (via Twitter). Limiting mass workouts is designed to comply with health experts’ recommendations that people avoid congregating when possible to help contain the spread of the coronavirus. However, facilities are likely to remain open for individual use on a case-by-case basis, Rosenthal adds. MLB has formally sent the advisement to the clubs, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). One player has informed ESPN’s Marly Rivera that teams are indeed now set to cease all organized group workouts.

MLB is mandating that non-roster players return home if safely possible (via Sherman). Players on a team’s 40-man roster remain eligible to stay onsite at spring camps, MLB announced, citing a lack of authority to send rostered players home under the CBA. Nevertheless, even players on the 40-man roster are expected to be barred from group workouts at club facilities.

Many teams were planning to continue working together while the sport is on pause. That no longer seems it’ll be the case, at least not at team facilities. Players are still free to work out individually and organize training groups among themselves. Some will almost certainly do so. But with experts calling for everyone to practice social distancing wherever possible, MLB (wisely) determined that mass gatherings of players are simply too dangerous at this point.

Today’s development only lends further credence to yesterday’s report that the season won’t be getting underway until May at the earliest, as Sherman points out (via Twitter).

Coronavirus Plan Updates: Cardinals, Astros, Mets, Royals, Rays

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Teams have taken various approaches in the wake of the coronavirus hiatus. Some more details have emerged about how a few teams plan to handle the unpredictable situation.

  • The Cardinals had initially planned to largely disperse, with only ten to fifteen players remaining at the team’s Florida complex. It seems they’ve reversed course somewhat. Fifteen to twenty-five players will stick around for the time being, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. They’ll continue to work out informally, but they unsurprisingly plan to pare back the training intensity, especially on the pitching side. Cardinals officials anticipate an eventual abbreviated “2.0 spring training,” in the words of manager Mike Shildt, that’ll last around two weeks in advance of MLB’s official regular season start date. Technically, MLB could return as soon as April 9, but it’s unlikely games will get underway until at least May.
  • The Astros will split into two groups to train, pitcher Lance McCullers announced (h/t to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Some members of the club will remain in the team’s spring complex in Florida, while others are headed back to Houston. The players plan to work out collectively.
  • Most of the Mets’ coaching staff will stay at the team’s Florida spring complex, as will many players on the team, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Newsday’s Tim Healey recently reported that most of the team would stay put.
  • As of yesterday, the Royals were holding tight at their Arizona spring facility, reports Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star. As pitcher Danny Duffy acknowledged to Worthy, the fluid situation could call for a change in plans at any time.
  • A good portion of the Rays’ roster is holding tight at the team’s spring complex for now. 30-35 players took part in an informal workout yesterday, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Unlike some other clubs, Tampa has no plans to conduct any sort of team-wide vote on the matter, Topkin adds, preferring to let players decide on a case-by-case basis their preferred course of action.

MLBTR Poll: Bauer vs. Ray vs. Stroman

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Baseball’s hiatus gives us an opportunity to examine both the past and future of the sport. Yesterday, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked back at a potential franchise-altering trade that never materialized. Today, we’ll turn our attention to the future: specifically, the upcoming free agent class.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ran his initial 2020-21 free agent power rankings a few weeks ago. No question, Mookie Betts looks like the jewel of a position player heavy class. Yet the pitching side looks a bit muddled. Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray and Marcus Stroman checked in alongside one another (in that order) as the three arms in Tim’s top ten. Obviously, there’s time for one to emerge as the unquestioned top starter on the market in 2020. As of now, though, which hurler do the MLBTR readers anticipate getting the top guarantee next winter, and which one would you prefer your favorite team roll the dice on?

  • Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati: For most of his career, the 29-year-old Bauer’s been a durable, mid-rotation type. He’s soaked up tons of innings, but in five of six seasons, he’s put up an ERA between 4.18 and 4.55 (with marginally better FIP’s). At his best, though, Bauer flashed a ceiling most pitchers can only dream of. In 2018, the former #3 overall pick worked to a 2.21 ERA with an elite 30.8% strikeout rate. An unsustainably low HR/FB rate meant that ERA always figured to regress somewhat, but it was still surprising to see Bauer post a league-average 4.48 mark in 2019. Bauer, of course, has expressed a desire to sign a series of one-year deals as a free agent. If he sticks to that plan, he’ll almost certainly not garner the top overall guarantee for a pitcher this offseason (or any other). But that high-risk approach is easier to espouse in theory than in practice, and Bauer recently walked back that plan a little bit. His free agency will be fascinating to follow.
  • Robbie Ray, Arizona: A bit like Bauer, the 28-year-old Ray is a tantalizing but somewhat frustrating talent. Since the start of 2017, he ranks fifth among starters (minimum 300 innings) in strikeout rate and 12th in swinging strike rate. He’s surrounded by the game’s aces on both leaderboards. Only Tyler Chatwood and Francisco Liriano have higher walk rates than Ray in that same period, though. The southpaw has never had a season with a better than average walk rate; that general inefficiency has run up some high pitch counts and helped prevent Ray from ever eclipsing 175 innings in a season. His ERA’s the past four years have varied quite a bit (4.90, 2.89, 3.93, 4.34). Teams could have different evaluations for Ray’s future, but the most likely outcome seems to be solid mid-rotation production via something of an extreme approach.
  • Marcus Stroman, Mets: Unlike his top two competitors, Stroman doesn’t generate many whiffs. The 28-year-old’s sinker is more conducive to a ground-ball heavy game. He throws strikes and has managed to avoid home runs even in the juiced ball era thanks to strong contact management. Stroman’s sinker/slider/cutter mix isn’t the four-seam/curveball combination coveted by most teams nowadays. Nevertheless, he’ll have plenty of suitors since he’s proven capable of ample success. 2018 was an injury-marred struggle, but Stroman’s put up at least 184.1 innings in three of the past four seasons and boasts a career ERA of 3.76. That’s a better track record of run prevention than either Bauer (4.04) or Ray (4.11) can boast.
  • Others: Other free agents to be (complete list of 2020-21 free agents) include Kevin Gausman, James Paxton, Alex Wood and Taijuan Walker. Between age, injuries and/or recent underperformance, it’s tough to project any of them to beat Bauer, Ray or Stroman this winter. Perhaps you’re more optimistic about someone a bit under-the-radar?
Which Free Agent Starter Will Earn The Largest Guarantee In 2020-21 Offseason?
Trevor Bauer 43.15% (3,272 votes)
Marcus Stroman 28.48% (2,160 votes)
Robbie Ray 24.23% (1,837 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 4.14% (314 votes)
Total Votes: 7,583

poll link for app users

Which 2020-21 Free Agent Starter Will Prove To Be The Best Investment For A Team?
Trevor Bauer 40.89% (2,217 votes)
Marcus Stroman 33.83% (1,834 votes)
Robbie Ray 25.29% (1,371 votes)
Total Votes: 5,422

poll link for app users

AL Notes: Pitchers, Mariners, Sale, Click

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Pitchers are creatures of habit, yet the indeterminate delay to the 2020 season is the biggest possible disruption to any preseason routine.  Like every team, the Mariners are trying to figure out the best way of keeping their pitchers on some type of regular throwing schedule to keep them prepared, while not really knowing when actual games will get underway.  “You don’t want to lose a whole lot of momentum. We also don’t want to build them too quickly,” manager Scott Servais told MLB.com’s Greg Johns and other media.  “Most guys are at three or four innings, at 50-60 pitches, so we’ll try to keep them right there with our starters.  And then we’ll ramp them up once we get closer to knowing what the for-certain Opening Day would be.  For now, we just want guys to stay active, play some catch.  You won’t see anybody throwing sides or catchers with gear on, we’re just going to try to slow it down here for the next few days.”

More from around the American League….

  • One pitcher whose routine may not be impacted by the elongated offseason is Chris Sale, as Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo) that “from a medical perspective, nothing really changes with” Sale’s loosely-established timeline.  “There’s uncertainty regarding his pitching status generally that we want to resolve.  We’re still going to want to resolve that,” Bloom said.  “We’re still going to want to progress him.  We haven’t gotten to that point yet, but we’re still going to work, even during this time period, without games, to get some progress and get some more definition on his status.”  A flexor strain led to Sale being shut down earlier this month, and if all is proceeding well, he should be on the verge of resuming throwing.  The delayed Opening Day could mean that Sale won’t miss any regular-season action, though naturally the Sox are taking things as carefully as possible with the ace southpaw.
  • James Click “rose from constructing an ultimate frisbee website on a whim to shepherding the Houston Astros forward,” the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome writes in a profile of the Astros’ new general manager.  Click’s pre-Houston resume included a stint as a writer and database-builder for Baseball Prospectus, which led to 14 years working in the Rays’ front office thanks to a recommendation from another new Rays intern and former BP writer in Chaim Bloom, now Boston’s chief baseball officer.  Rome’s piece is a strong look at an executive whose arrival at a GM position comes with the added challenge of trying to reconfigure the Astros after an offseason of scandal and public scorn.

Phillies Sign Venezuelan Prospect Yhoswar Garcia

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The Phillies have agreed to sign Venezuelan center fielder Yhoswar Garcia, Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports (Twitter link).  The Phils have been linked to Garcia for over a year, and are reportedly set to sign the 18-year-old to a bonus worth roughly $2.5MM.

Many of the top names in the 2019-20 international class were unofficially off the board since well before the signing window opened last July 2, though Garcia’s deal has only now been finalized because he only recently become eligible.  As Badler explained in December, there was an age-related holdup since Garcia initially presented a birthdate that indicated he was a year younger than his actual age.  The issue ended up being a delay rather than an obstacle, however, and Garcia will now join Philadelphia’s organization as planned.

Known as “The Drone,” Garcia backs up that MLB-ready nickname with “plus-plus speed in center field,” Badler writes.  Garcia is 6’1″ and a relatively thin 155 pounds, though MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez figures Garcia to gain more weight as he gets older and subsequently adds power to some already-intriguing hitting ability.  Garcia “shows good instincts and is a gap hitter,” according to Sanchez, who also feels Garcia has a lot of defensive promise as a center fielder with a good throwing arm.

Rumor Retrospection: The (Would-Be) Albert Pujols/Ryan Howard Trade Of 2010

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It was exactly a decade ago today that ESPN.com’s Buster Olney dropped a bombshell on the baseball world, reporting that the Phillies had held some internal discussions within their front office about the possibility of a blockbuster deal of first basemen — Phils slugger Ryan Howard to the Cardinals for Albert Pujols.  It would have been a one-for-one trade, with both players switching uniforms with two years remaining on their current contracts.

As Olney observed in his report, the concept might well have been just an idea floated within Philadelphia’s front office, rather than an actual proposal made to the Cards.  Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. went a step further when asked to comment on the rumor, calling it “Lies.  That’s a lie. I don’t know who you’re talking to, but that’s a lie.”  (Olney defended his reporting two days later, calling it “confirmed information” and he knew “exactly who said what to whom, and how sturdy the intent was.”)

It was an eyebrow-raising trade rumor at the time, and though this particular swap apparently didn’t come close to being a reality, the concept of a straight-up superstar-for-superstar deal is still fascinating ten years later since such deals are so rare.  And, in this particular instance, we can judge with a decade of hindsight how a Pujols-for-Howard trade might have worked out for both the Phillies and the Cardinals.

For St. Louis, the impact is simple — they might not have won the 2011 World Series without Pujols.  2011 marked what was, incredibly, the least-impressive of Pujols’ 11 MLB seasons, as he “only” hit .299/.366/.541 with 37 home runs over 651 PA.  This performance was just the warmup for an epic postseason, as Pujols posted a 1.155 OPS over 82 PA during the Cardinals’ 18 playoff games.  Pujols’ efforts included a three-homer night in Game 3 of the World Series, putting him alongside Babe Ruth and Reggie Jackson as the only men (Pablo Sandoval joined the club in 2012) to ever hit three home runs in a Series game.

Could the Cardinals have won a title with Howard in Pujols’ place?  It’s possible, as while Howard wasn’t quite as productive as Pujols during the 2011 regular season, Howard still hit .276/.353/.505 and 31 homers.  Who’s to say how those numbers might have differed in a new ballpark and a new environment as a Cardinal rather than as a Phillie; Howard, a St. Louis native, might have thrived with his hometown team, or perhaps struggled under the added pressure.

What likely doesn’t happen in this what-if scenario, however, is the nasty injury Howard suffered in his (and the Phillies’) last at-bat of the 2011 season.  Making the final out of the 2011 NLDS, Howard tore his Achilles tendon leaving the batters’ box to run out a grounder, and he didn’t return to action until July 6, 2012.  It ended up being a career-altering injury for Howard, as while he was already showing a tiny bit of decline from his prime years and any sort of dropoff for a power hitter isn’t uncommon as he enters his 30’s, the before-and-after of Howard’s Achilles injury is jarring.  From 2012-16, Howard hit only .226/.292/.427 over 2122 PA.

The Phillies lost that 2011 NLDS to, ironically, the Cardinals.  It was the second straight year the Phillies had fallen short in the playoffs after a dominant regular season, and it ultimately proved to be the end of that great era of Philadelphia baseball.  In the eight years since, the Phillies have yet to enjoy another winning season, only managing an even .500 record on two occasions (2012, 2019).  While Howard was a big part of the Phillies’ success in 2010 and 2011, replacing him with Pujols’ next-level production might well have been the difference in a World Series victory in either 2010, 2011, or both seasons.

The other major side effect of this trade is what happens after the 2012 season.  A little over a month after Olney’s report, the Phillies signed Howard to a five-year, $125MM extension covering the 2012-16 seasons.  Since Howard was already 30 years old at the time of the extension and under contract for two more years, there was a pretty immediate and negative reaction to the Phillies’ decision, and while the Achilles injury wasn’t foreseen, the deal indeed ended up being a bust for the Phils.

That said, does Howard still ink an extension if he ends up with St. Louis in this alternate reality?  As Olney noted, the Cardinals weren’t making progress with Pujols on an extension, so they could have had interest in Howard as a potential long-term replacement.  The difference, however, could’ve been that the Cards might have waited at least a season before locking Howard up.  Looking back at past extensions for such Cardinals notables as Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, or Paul Goldschmidt, the team has tended to wait until just before the pending free agent’s final season under contract to finalize a new deal.  A Cardinals/Howard extension could been potentially lesser in both years and dollars, if Howard has performed for the Cards in 2010 as he did in the real world (.276/.353/.505 with 31 home runs) for Philadelphia.  While still strong numbers, they nonetheless represented a step back from the 50 homers Howard averaged every season from 2006-09, while also batting .278/.379/.589.

As for Pujols, he did depart St. Louis after that 2011 World Series title, signing a ten-year, $240MM deal with the Angels that still has two seasons remaining.  While the Phillies were willing to splurge on Howard, extending Pujols would’ve cost twice the years and almost twice the money as Howard’s extension.  Maybe the Phils (perhaps flush off Pujols leading them to a championship or two) would have decided that Pujols was worth the extra investment and signed him to a similar extension.  Assuming the Pujols in this multiverse declined at the same pace as our universe’s Pujols did with the Angels, such a deal could have left the Phillies with an even bigger contractual albatross on their hands….especially if the Pujols-led 2010 Phils or 2011 Phils hadn’t won a World Series, leaving the team without even a “flags fly forever” silver lining.

Another route is that the Phils work out a more creative extension with Pujols, perhaps overwriting the terms of his 2010-11 salaries to give him more money sooner and less money on the back end in his decline years.  Or, in what might have been ultimately the best-case scenario for Philadelphia, the team could have just let Pujols depart for free agency after the 2011 season.  That would have left room in the Phils’ budget and a hole at first base, which could have put the team in the market for another of that offseason’s top free agent first basemen — Prince Fielder.

Needless to say, such a major trade would’ve greatly altered the last decade of Major League Baseball, and likely swung at least one World Series result.  Given how the last ten years played out for the Phillies, maybe there’s someone from that club’s front office who, if this trade proposal indeed never got past the internal discussion phase, wishes they’d picked up the phone to at least give the Cards a call.

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