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The Mariners Need To Shake Up Their Offense

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Mariners fans entered the season with something of a sour outlook on the 2025 season. That's understandable, given an offseason in which the front office was clearly handcuffed by payroll limitations and a paper-thin trade market for big league hitters. Armed with a only a reported $15-16MM to patch over multiple needs in the infield, there wasn't a lot out there for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander to realistically pursue.

Seattle wound up rolling the dice on a handful of cost-effective infield options. Jorge Polanco returned on a one-year deal with a conditional player option. Donovan Solano snagged a $3.5MM guarantee. Rowdy Tellez signed a minor league deal and made the team after a big spring showing (.298/.320/.574 in 50 plate appearances).

Frustration was understandable. The Mariners had made a big splash at the prior deadline, reeling in Randy Arozarena from the Rays, but fans hoping for a similarly bold strike in the offseason after another narrow playoff miss were left wanting.

That frustration likely faded for many as the Mariners raced out to a blistering start. On May 7, they sat with a 22-14 record, leading the American League West by a three-game margin and sporting a +31 run differential. One might imagine that the Mariners were again being carried by their brilliant rotation, but that wasn't the case -- at least not entirely. George Kirby has still yet to throw a pitch in 2025 as he recovers from some shoulder inflammation. Logan Gilbert hit the injured list on April 25 and remains there. Bryan Woo has been brilliant. Luis Castillo has been good. Gilbert was his typically excellent self prior to his flexor injury. But the Mariners' starting pitching, as a whole, has been a middle-of-the-pack unit.

Instead, Seattle's hot start was largely attributable to a surprisingly potent offense. Through that previously mentioned May 7 date, M's hitters were slashing .247/.340/.415, resulting in a 122 wRC+ that ranked third in the majors. They were fourth in home runs, seventh in runs scored, 12th in batting average, second in on-base percentage and ninth in slugging percentage.

In the week-plus since that time, the Mariners have lost five of six games and posted a collective .206/.259/.326 batting line (70 wRC+). Typically, there's little sense panicking over a week of poor results, but there was already reason to be a bit skeptical of Seattle's sudden offensive prowess. Good as Cal Raleigh is, he's not going to continue at a 50-homer pace. Polanco isn't going to keep his OPS north of 1.000. J.P. Crawford isn't sustaining a .410 OBP, nor will Leo Rivas keep hitting .341. Those timely early-season hot streaks buoyed the Seattle offense but can't all be sustained.

The Mariners seemingly recognize that some new blood is needed; they claimed Leody Taveras off waivers from the division-rival Rangers and took on about $3.7MM in salary to do so. That was an understandable move with both Victor Robles and Luke Raley on the injured list for the foreseeable future, but it shouldn't be the only one the Mariners consider.

Let's run through a few easy ways to bolster a lineup that is facing even more pressure than usual now that Bryce Miller has joined rotation-mates Kirby and Gilbert on the injured list...

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Looking Ahead To Club Options: AL West

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Over the coming days, MLBTR will look at next offseason’s option class. Steve Adams highlighted the players who can opt out of their current deals, while we’ll take a division-by-division look at those whose contracts contain either team or mutual options. Virtually all of the mutual options will be bought out by one side. Generally, if the team is willing to retain the player at the option price, the player will decline his end in search of a better free agent deal.

We started with a look at the NL West yesterday. While every team in that division had at least one player whose deal contained a club or mutual option, its American League counterpart only has two teams that are slated to have any option decisions.

Athletics

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Houston Astros

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Los Angeles Angels

The Angels brought in Newman on a $2.75MM contract early last offseason. The contact-hitting infielder was coming off a solid .278/.311/.375 slash over 111 games in a utility role in Arizona. He added necessary shortstop depth with Zach Neto opening the season on the injured list after last fall’s shoulder surgery. Newman had a rough Spring Training, though, and the Angels went with minor league signee Tim Anderson as their primary shortstop until Neto’s return tonight.

Newman’s cold spring has carried into his early regular season work. He has managed three hits, all singles, without taking a walk in 23 trips to the plate. Newman has never walked much or hit for any kind of power, but he generally puts the ball in play and can move around the infield. Neto’s return means he won’t get much playing time at shortstop, while Kyren Paris and Luis Rengifo are respectively getting the majority of work at second and third base.

Note: José Quijada and Evan White each have club options on their respective contracts. They’ve both been outrighted off the 40-man roster and are very likely to be bought out. If they’re added back to the 40-man, the Angels would control both players via arbitration even if they decline the options.

Seattle Mariners

Garver’s two-year, $24MM contract remains the only multi-year deal that the Mariners have awarded to a free agent hitter under Jerry Dipoto’s leadership. It hasn’t gone well. While Garver’s injury history made that a somewhat risky investment, he looked like a good bet to hit whenever he was on the field. Garver was coming off a .270/.370/.500 showing for the Rangers during their World Series season, and he brought a career .252/.342/.483 batting line to T-Mobile Park.

The 34-year-old’s production tanked almost immediately. He managed a career-high 430 plate appearances last season, but it came with easily his worst rate stats in a full season. Garver hit .172/.286/.341 while striking out at a 31% rate. It wasn’t simply a product of Seattle’s pitcher-friendly park. His .186/.290/.324 line on the road wasn’t any better than his .153/.281/.363 showing at home. He doesn’t look to be on the verge of a rebound. Garver has begun this season with four singles, six walks, and zero extra-base hits across 34 trips to the plate.

The Mariners worked out an extension with the hard-throwing Muñoz during the 2021-22 offseason. He’d made all of one appearance in a Seattle uniform at the time. Muñoz had undergone Tommy John surgery while a member of the Padres in 2020. Seattle acquired him early in the rehab process. They believed he’d blossom into a late-game weapon. They were right.

Muñoz has rattled off three straight sub-3.00 ERA seasons since signing his extension. He has begun this year with 10 scoreless innings, recording 13 strikeouts with an AL-leading seven saves. He carries a 2.35 earned run average with a huge 34.7% strikeout rate over 184 frames in a Seattle uniform. This has quickly become one of the most team-friendly contracts in the game.

The option is essentially a lock unless he suffers a significant injury that’d cost him all of next season. The team has respective $8MM and $10MM options for 2027 and ’28, so they could keep him at below-market rates for three years. Next season’s option has a $6MM base value. It’d climb by $250K apiece if Muñoz finishes 20, 30, 40 and 45 games this year. He’s already at eight games finished and should get to 45 by season’s end. The option price will probably end up at $7MM, but it’s an easy call for the front office.

Polanco’s option begins as an $8MM mutual provision, but he can convert it to a player option if he hits a vesting threshold. If he reaches 450 plate appearances this season and avoids a lower half injury that’d require him to begin next season on the injured list — which is protection for the team given his recent knee concerns — it’d become a $6MM player option. Getting to 550 plate appearances this year would push the player option price to $8MM.

If Polanco does not hit the vesting threshold, it’d remain an $8MM mutual option with a $750K buyout. He has been dinged up by knee and side discomfort that has limited him but not prevented him from playing. The switch-hitting Polanco is currently unable to play the infield or hit right-handed in games. He’s a lefty-swinging designated hitter for now. Yet he’s been on such a tear that the Mariners will happily live with the limitations.

Polanco has connected on three homers and a pair of doubles through 13 games. He’s hitting .378. That not only leads the team but ranks sixth in the majors among hitters with at least 40 plate appearances. He’s obviously not going to keep up this pace, but Polanco was fairly consistently an above-average hitter during his run as Minnesota’s second baseman. The Mariners felt that last year’s career-worst production was attributable to the knee injury through which he played a good chunk of the season. Polanco has done his best to prove that right so far.

Texas Rangers

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Mariners Exploring Infield Market

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Injuries have quickly changed the complexion of the Mariners’ infield. Second baseman Ryan Bliss will miss four to five months after suffering a tear in his left biceps and undergoing surgery. First baseman Luke Raley has shifted to the outfield in the wake of a fracture in Victor Robles’ shoulder, which will sideline him for around 12 weeks. Jorge Polanco is currently relegated to DH work and won’t play the infield for another week or two, per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times. He underwent knee surgery back in October and is dealing with some discomfort in his side as well.

With those early changes to the infield composition, the Mariners are poking around the market for potential external additions, Jude further reports. A major trade this time of year is rare but not unheard of. The Brewers just picked up young right-hander Quinn Priester in a trade with the Red Sox earlier this week, helping to shore up an injury-ravaged rotation in Milwaukee. Last year’s trade of Luis Arraez from Miami to San Diego occurred in early May. Of course, the Mariners spent the bulk of the offseason pursuing trades to bolster their infield and ultimately wound up making a series of small free agent signings instead — clearly not finding a match to their liking.

It’s unlikely that there are any teams that have strongly rethought their status as postseason hopefuls just a few weeks into the season. As such, it’s unlikely that there are any players available on the trade market at present whose teams weren’t willing to discuss them over the winter. If the Mariners couldn’t find an offseason trade of note to bolster their infield, it’s hard to envision them suddenly doing so now.

That said, Jude notes that Seattle’s front office is “combing” other rosters and looking at veteran players who are on minor league deals elsewhere. Many veterans will have opt-out dates and upward mobility clauses in April. Article XX(b) free agents (i.e. six-plus years of MLB service, finished the preceding season on a major league roster/injured list) who signed minor league contracts have a uniform opt-out opportunity on May 1. MLBTR took a look at 36 such players late in camp, though the majority this year happened to be pitchers.

This type of acquisition wouldn’t necessarily be a sexy one, but the Mariners have gotten no production to date out of Rowdy Tellez or Donovan Solano, and they’re hitting .200/.303/.333 as a team as of this writing. The bar for improvement is fairly low. Tellez and Solano will surely get some runway to turn things around, but it’s sensible to looking at other, similar veteran options who could potentially be had on the cheap. Among the veteran infielders on minor league deals and hitting well in Triple-A with other clubs are Christian Arroyo (Phillies), Scott Kingery (Angels), Harold Castro (Royals), Nick Gordon (Royals) and Jake Lamb (Giants).

Help could always come from the farm system as well. Jude writes that the organization is prioritizing top prospect Cole Young’s development at the moment and doesn’t want to rush him to the big leagues but could consider an accelerated path for third baseman Ben Williamson. Young is hitting .178/.302/.267 in Triple-A at the moment anyhow, making it tough to consider him an upgrade. Williamson is a plus defender at third base who’s gotten some reps in the middle infield, too. He’s light on power but has plus contact skills and is out to a .286/.314/.347 start in Tacoma. He batted .283/.375/.394 in 541 plate appearances between High-A and Double-A last year. First baseman Tyler Locklear didn’t hit in his big league debut last year but is slashing .286/.359/.457 through his first nine games in Triple-A this season.

If Seattle’s offensive doldrums continue much longer and there’s no help to be found outside the organization, it stands to reason that Williamson and/or Locklear could get early looks to help right the ship.

MLBTR Podcast: Jack Flaherty Back To Detroit, Max Scherzer, And What’s Next For The Padres

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Jerry Dipoto Discusses Castillo, Lineup, Polanco

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Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto met with reporters this afternoon after the team finalized the one-year deal to retain Jorge Polanco. Seattle’s longtime front office leader addressed the team’s atypically quiet offseason while providing a couple injury updates.

Dipoto said the front office entered the winter believing they could be in for a slow offseason. “One of our points going into this offseason, and I know I made it sitting in the dugout in the final series, was that we didn’t anticipate a great deal of movement around the team,” he told the beat (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). “As we are now about a week away from heading to Spring Training, I’d say that probably played out to be spot on, much to, I think, the dismay of a few. But we have a good team.”

Seattle has made two major league free agent signings. They brought Polanco back on a $7.75MM guarantee and added Donovan Solano as a part-time righty bat for $3.5MM. Reporting from both The Seattle Times and MLB.com throughout the offseason has suggested that ownership was only allowing the front office to allocate between $15MM-20MM to the MLB payroll. While the lack of free agent activity has certainly been a source of frustration for much of the fanbase, it’s not especially surprising.

The more interesting development has been the M’s willingness to sit out the trade market. They’ve made four trades this offseason, all of which have been depth acquisitions for players who were in DFA limbo: Austin Shenton, Miles Mastrobuoni, Blake Hunt and Will Klein. Those are akin to waiver claims. The Mariners essentially haven’t made a single notable move on the trade market, a stark contrast to Dipoto’s reputation as one of the game’s most prolific traders. The “Trader Jerry” nickname has been well earned in prior offseasons.

Most trade speculation concerned the possibility of the Mariners moving a starting pitcher to add a hitter. As Dipoto noted today, he did indeed downplay that notion before last season even ended. He famously called dealing from the rotation the M’s “Plan Z” for the offseason in the referenced media scrum. That didn’t stop other teams from inquiring on Seattle’s young rotation nucleus of George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, but there’s nothing to suggest the Mariners gave strong consideration to moving any of them.

The one starter who was available was Luis Castillo. The veteran righty is under contract for another three seasons and $68.25MM (plus a 2028 vesting option). Trading Castillo could have created spending room while netting the M’s immediate lineup help. It wasn’t going to be a straight salary dump, though, and Seattle hasn’t found an offer it finds compelling. The Seattle Times’ Adam Jude reported last week that Castillo was unlikely to move at this point.

Dipoto implied as much in today’s comments. He told Jude and other reporters that the front office received some proposals that warranted real consideration, but those obviously did not result in a deal. “Not shockingly, we had inquiries on all five of our starting pitchers and dozens of prospects along the way,” he added. “But obviously we opted not to go that route.” While he left open the possibility of making another move, he noted that the front office would be happy with the roster “if this is our team going into Spring Training or Opening Day” (via Divish and Jude).

The Mariners will go into Spring Training with arguably MLB’s best 1-5 in the rotation. Their depth behind that is lacking, though perhaps quick-moving prospect Logan Evans can soon be a factor. Seattle benefited from excellent rotation health last year. Woo was the only member of their front five who made fewer than 30 starts. That’ll be difficult to replicate, but when the rotation is at full strength, they’re giving the ball to an above-average starter every night.

As has long been the case, the question is whether they’ll score enough runs. Dipoto expressed confidence in the lineup, pointing to their success later in the season after the managerial and hitting coach changes. Seattle hitters had a .216/.301/.365 batting line through August 21. After dismissing Scott Servais and Jarret DeHart in favor of Dan Wilson and Edgar Martinez, respectively, they hit .255/.347/.417 in their final 34 games.

Attributing that entirely to the coaching changes is overly simplistic. They improved the lineup at the deadline with the Justin Turner and Randy Arozarena pickups and league-wide offense tends to peak later in the summer with warmer weather. Still, the change in voice probably played some part in the much improved finish. The Mariners play in the sport’s toughest home park for hitters. Only the White Sox had a lower team OPS in home games. Seattle ranked 13th in OPS on the road. Mike Petriello of MLB.com examined some reasons behind T-Mobile Park’s extreme pitcher-friendly environment last week in a column that’s well worth a full read.

Dipoto also addressed a few injury situations. He expressed confidence in Polanco’s health after the veteran infielder played through a left knee injury that eventually required a meniscus repair. The Mariners believe the move from his longtime second base position to third base will take less of a toll on him physically. Meanwhile, reliever Troy Taylor suffered a lat strain during his offseason workouts and will not be ready for the start of camp. It’s not clear if he’ll need to begin the regular season on the injured list. The righty turned in a 3.72 ERA while striking out nearly 31% of opposing hitters across 21 appearances as a rookie.

Mariners Designate Cade Marlowe For Assignment

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The Mariners announced that outfielder Cade Marlowe has been designated for assignment. That is the corresponding move to open a roster spot for infielder Jorge Polanco, whose one-year deal to return to the club is now official.

Marlowe, 28 in June, was a 20th-round pick of the Mariners back in 2019. He continually posted good numbers as he was climbing the minor league ladder, so the Mariners gave him a roster spot in November of 2022 to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He has spent the past two years as a depth outfielder, getting only limited looks in the majors. To this point, he has received 109 big league plate appearances with a .240/.330/.406 line. His 11.9% walk rate in that time is strong but he’s also been punched out at a 31.2% rate.

His minor league numbers have tailed off in that time. He had a combined slash line of .281/.373/.523 over 2021 and 2022, which translated to a 129 wRC+. His 27% strikeout rate was on the high side but he offset it with an 11.5% walk rate and 49 home runs. But over 2023 and 2024, that line has been down to .246/.340/.419, translating to an 85 wRC+. His 11.9% walk rate was still good but the punchouts jumped even higher to 29.4%.

That diminished offense on the farm has seemingly nudged him off the edge of Seattle’s roster. They will now have at most a week of DFA limbo to figure out what’s next for him, whether that’s a trade or some fate on waivers. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so any trade talks would need to come together in the next five days.

He does still have one option remaining, so he could perhaps appeal to a club in search of some extra outfield depth. Though the offense has dipped, he has continued to be a threat on the basepaths. He has stolen between 24 and 43 bases in each of the past four minor league seasons. The strikeouts have been an issue even when at his best but he has some wheels, some pop, can take a walk and can be sent to the minors regularly for one more season, all of which adds up to an intriguing package overall.

Mariners Re-Sign Jorge Polanco

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The Mariners are bringing back Jorge Polanco. They announced Monday that they’ve re-signed the veteran infielder to a one-year deal with a vesting/player option for the 2026 season. Polanco, an Octagon client, will reportedly be guaranteed $7.75MM. That comes in the form of a $7MM base salary in 2025 plus a $750K buyout on a mutual option. That mutual option can become a $6MM player option if Polanco reaches 450 plate appearances, and the option price would climb further, to $8MM, if he gets to 550 plate appearances. Polanco, who’ll move across the diamond and play third base for Seattle in 2025, can earn an additional $3.5MM worth of incentives. If he hits all of those incentives and picks up the player option, the contract would top out at $18.5MM over two seasons.

Polanco’s first season with the Mariners was a disappointment. Seattle acquired the switch-hitter from the Twins late last offseason. They expected him to provide a significant offensive boost in the infield. That didn’t pan out, as Polanco struggled through arguably the worst year of his career. He hit .213/.296/.355 with 16 home runs through 469 plate appearances. The batting average and on-base percentage were personal lows. The slugging percentage was only marginally above his career-worst .354 mark from the shortened 2020 season.

Before last season, Polanco had been one of the league’s more productive middle infielders. He combined for a .255/.333/.462 slash with a strong 10.1% walk rate in more than 1400 plate appearances over his final three seasons in Minnesota. Polanco had hit 33 homers back in 2021 and was an annual threat for 20 longballs and 30+ doubles. Polanco managed just 11 doubles during his first year in Seattle. He continued to draw walks at a solid 9.8% clip, but he struck out in more than 29% of his plate appearances.

Some of the offensive downturn is attributable to T-Mobile Park. Seattle plays in MLB’s most pitcher-friendly home stadium. Polanco had an especially difficult time at home. He hit .193/.284/.322 while striking out at a 31.9% clip in Seattle. His road production (.233/.308/.386 with a 26.7% strikeout rate) was better but still well below his previous standards.

Health may have been a bigger issue than the ballpark. Polanco underwent surgery to repair the patellar tendon in his left knee within weeks of the season’s conclusion. He had reportedly played through discomfort for a good portion of the season. Polanco is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training. The Mariners are as familiar as any team with his health history. They evidently believe that last year’s struggles were something of an aberration.

While he’s entering his 10th full season, Polanco is only 31. His relative youth provides some optimism that last year was mostly a health-related anomaly. That said, the whiffs have been a multiyear concern. Polanco’s strikeout rate has climbed by multiple percentage points in five straight seasons. In 2020, he fanned in just 15.5% of his plate appearances. That jumped successively to a 25.7% clip in his final season with the Twins, which climbed nearly four points more with the Mariners.

Polanco’s previous contract included a $12MM team option that came with a $750K buyout. Seattle declined that relatively easily. Four months later, they bring him back at a slightly lesser salary. It’s probably not a coincidence that the performance bonuses theoretically allow him to max out next year’s guarantee at $11.25MM — the differential below the option price and the buyout.

They’re not quite running things back, as Polanco’s return comes with a position change. He has been a middle infielder throughout his career. Polanco played shortstop until moving to second base in 2021. He didn’t play anywhere other than second base last season. His major league third base experience consists of 20 starts and 180 innings. Polanco has never been a great defensive second baseman. His range could be less of an issue at third, though that’ll put some pressure on his arm. Polanco didn’t show great arm strength at second base, though that’s not a direct comparison to throwing across the diamond — which he did during his time as a shortstop.

Seattle feels more comfortable with their internal options at second base than they do at the hot corner. That bodes well for 25-year-old Ryan Bliss, who is likely to get first crack at the second base job. Bliss debuted late last season and hit .222/.290/.397 in 33 games. A former second-round pick by the Diamondbacks, he had a quality .269/.377/.456 showing over 433 plate appearances with Triple-A Tacoma last year.

The M’s will likely give Bliss the bulk of the playing time while working utilityman Dylan Moore through the position. Seattle’s lone additional MLB free agent signing, Donovan Solano, can also play some second base (though he’ll get more work as a platoon partner for Luke Raley at first). Seattle didn’t have anyone established at third base after non-tendering Josh Rojas.

Seattle wasn’t the only team interested in expanding Polanco’s versatility. He reportedly drew interest from the Astros as a possibility at either third base or in left field. Polanco has seemingly been Houston’s primary fallback if they don’t re-sign Alex Bregman. They no longer need a third baseman after landing Isaac Paredes in the Kyle Tucker deal, but they’re still hunting for a left fielder and would like to re-sign Bregman. That’d push Paredes to second and Jose Altuve to left field.

Seattle has reportedly had around $15-20MM in payroll space this winter. Solano and Polanco have accounted for just over $11MM, leaving a few million for a potential bench bat or middle relief pickup. RosterResource calculates their 2025 player payroll around $152MM.

Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic first reported that Polanco and the Mariners had an agreement. Rosenthal was first to report the $7.75MM guarantee and the move to third base. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported that it was a one-year deal with a vesting/player option. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 reported the $3.5MM in incentives. Jon Heyman of the New York Post provided the more detailed financial breakdown. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Astros Have Continued Interest In Jorge Polanco

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The Astros have ongoing interest in Jorge Polanco, reports Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. According to Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Houston could experiment with Polanco in left field if they land him.

That’d be a first for the switch-hitting Polanco, who hasn’t played a single major league inning in the outfield. He has logged over 7500 defensive innings in his career. Nearly all of them have come in the middle infield, while he also has a handful of starts at third base. His professional outfield experience consists of 73 innings in rookie ball in 2011-12.

Playing Polanco in left field would be no less of a roll of the dice than it would be to send Jose Altuve out there. The latter option is seemingly on the table only if the Astros re-sign Alex Bregman, who’d retake his spot at third base while pushing Isaac Paredes to second base. Altuve has never started an MLB game at a position other than second base (or designated hitter), but he indicated over the weekend he’d be happy to try his hand in left field if it meant getting Bregman back on the roster. In any case, the Astros haven’t seemed enamored with the unsigned lefty-hitting outfield options (e.g. Alex Verdugo, Jason Heyward).

Houston’s interest in Polanco seems to be as a fallback if Bregman signs elsewhere. General manager Dana Brown said on Saturday that while Houston has had recent talks with their longtime third baseman, it remains a “long shot” that he’ll return. The Athletic reported last week that the team’s previously reported six-year, $156MM offer remains on the table. However, it’s not clear if the Astros are open to pushing that any further. Unsurprisingly, Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 wrote this afternoon that Bregman was unlikely to return unless the team upped its offer.

While Polanco would obviously be far less expensive, it’s questionable whether he’d fit in Houston’s spending plans. The Astros are set to offload $8.5MM of Ryan Pressly’s salary once his trade to the Cubs is finalized. That dropped the team’s estimated luxury tax number to roughly $236MM (per RosterResource). They’re now about $5MM below the $241MM base tax threshold; they were a little more than $3MM above the line before the Pressly trade.

Houston exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season. That their offer is still out to Bregman confirms they’re open to doing so again in certain circumstances. That’s not surprising with regards to a homegrown star who has been one of the faces of the most successful run in franchise history. Paying the competitive balance tax to accommodate Polanco — who hit .213/.296/.355 in a career-worst season with the Mariners last year — could be a tougher sell for ownership.

It seems likely that Polanco will beat $5MM wherever he winds up. He was one of the game’s better offensive second basemen between 2021-23. He’d played through a patellar tendon injury in his left knee last season. He underwent postseason surgery and is expected to be ready for Opening Day. The knee injury coupled with the challenge of hitting at Seattle’s T-Mobile Park make him an intriguing rebound target as he enters his age-31 season. Even if Polanco ends up settling for less than $5MM, the signing would at least put the Astors right on the border of the threshold. If they prefer to stay below the CBT line, they’d probably need to offload more money in a trade or have limited payroll room for midseason acquisitions.

Yankees Have Shown Interest In Jorge Polanco

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The Yankees have filled most of their biggest holes this winter, adding a closer (Devin Williams), a frontline starting pitcher (Max Fried), an outfielder (Cody Bellinger), and a first baseman (Paul Goldschmidt). Nonetheless, general manager Brian Cashman still has work to do. For one thing, New York could use a replacement for long-time middle infield stalwart Gleyber Torres, who signed with the Tigers in December. Notably, the Yankees did not make an effort to re-sign Torres after he became a free agent. However, they have been linked to various other infielders this offseason, including free agent Brendan Rodgers and trade candidate Luis Arraez. Most recently, Mark W. Sanchez of the New York Post identified Jorge Polanco as another potential target. The Yankees have reportedly “checked in” on Polanco, who is a free agent for the first time in his career.

After spending the first 10 seasons of his big league tenure with the Twins, Polanco suited up for the Mariners in 2024. He played all of his defensive innings at second base. The 31-year-old was once a shortstop and has some experience at third base, but the keystone has been his primary home for the past four seasons. Presumably, that’s where the Yankees would be interested in having him play. Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s flexibility allows New York to pursue an upgrade at either second or third base, with Chisholm covering whichever position is left. Considering Polanco’s limited experience at the hot corner (24 games, 180.0 innings), it would seem to make the most sense to keep Chisholm at third.

Whichever team ultimately signs Polanco will be betting on him as a bounce-back candidate for 2025. From 2021-23, the switch-hitter was one of the better offensive second basemen in the game. Over 336 games, he hit 63 home runs with a .796 OPS and a 120 wRC+. His wRC+ was at least 19% better than the average second baseman’s in all three seasons. However, Polanco’s strong bat disappeared in 2024. His .651 OPS and 92 wRC+ were below average, even considering the lower offensive standards at second base. To make matters worse, his defense – which has never been his strong suit – was worse than ever. With -1 DRS, -10 OAA, -8 FRV, and -3.7 DRP, he either tied or sunk beneath his career lows in all four metrics.

For what it’s worth, Polanco spent time on the IL with a right hamstring injury in May and June and reportedly played through a left knee injury for much of the season. He had surgery on his knee this offseason and is expected to be ready for spring training. Perhaps a healthier Polanco will be able to hit more like his old self. To that point, ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggested the injury had a particular effect on the switch-hitter’s performance as a lefty batter. Polanco’s 94 wRC+ as a righty batter in 2024 was right in line with his career average of 95. On the flip side, his 91 wRC+ as a lefty batter in 2024 was significantly worse than his career 115 wRC+ from the left side.

Even at full strength, Polanco doesn’t offer quite as much upside as Torres. However, it’s not far-fetched to think Polanco could replace the offensive production the Yankees got out of Torres in 2024. This past season was also a down year for the younger infielder. Over 154 games, he hit for a .709 OPS and 104 wRC+. Funnily enough, those numbers are almost right in the middle of what Polanco produced in 2023 and ’24. He might not be the most exciting infielder the Bronx Bombers have been connected to this winter, but if the veteran can split the difference between his past two seasons, he’ll help the Yankees make up for what they lost.

Free Agent Profile: Jorge Polanco

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Just under a year ago, the Mariners acquired second baseman Jorge Polanco from the Twins as part of a five-player deal that also involved right-hander Anthony DeScalfani, the latter of whom was traded to Seattle as part of the Robbie Ray trade earlier that same month. At the time of the deal, adding Polanco seemed to be something of a coup for the Mariners, who were in desperate need of an upgrade over Kolten Wong at second base and managed to take advantage of the fact that the Twins were facing a mandate to cut payroll and had plenty of infield depth at their disposal.

That allowed them to add a former All-Star with who had slashed .255/.333/.462 (120 wRC+) over the previous three seasons. Polanco even came with multiple years of control in the form of a $12MM team option ($750K buyout) that seemed quite likely to be a no-brainer for the club to pick up when the trade was executed. Flash forward to the end of the 2024 campaign, however, and Polanco had posted arguably the worst full season of his career before undergoing knee surgery in October. Given that, it was a surprise to no one when the Mariners opted to decline their option on the switch-hitter and pocket the $11.25MM in savings for use on other areas of the roster.

Since then, Polanco has been awaiting an opportunity on the free agent market. The infielder is slated to return to baseball activities at some point this month and be fully ready to go in time for Spring Training, but his market has nonetheless been rather quiet. The Astros reportedly had some level of interest in Polanco as a fallback plan in the event they failed to land Alex Bregman, but they instead pivoted to a combination of Isaac Paredes at third base and Christian Walker at first. That seems likely to close the door on the possibility of Polanco heading to Houston, and no other teams have been publicly connected to the infielder.

Some trepidation from clubs regarding Polanco is understandable. In addition to the fact that he’s coming off offseason surgery, there are some worrisome signs in his performance last year even going beyond his raw production. Polanco’s 29.2% strikeout rate was by far the worst mark of his 11-year MLB tenure. He’s struck out just a 19.5% clip throughout his career, but his strikeouts have been steadily increasing over the last several years. He struck out at just an 18.3% clip back in 2021, which was by far the best season of his career. Since then, however, his strikeouts have climbed each season with a 21.3% figure in 2022 and 25.7% in ’23 before topping out with last year’s aforementioned 29.2% clip.

It’s a worrying trend that was present even when Polanco was productive in previous years and shows little sign of turning around. After making contact on 81.6% of pitches he swung at in 2021, good for the 32nd-highest contact rate among 132 qualified hitters. That figure dropped to 73.6% last year, though, which was just 124th among 169 hitters with at least 450 plate appearances. That’s a steep drop, though it’s not the culprit of Polanco’s downturn in production on its own. After all, his 77.1% and 77.2% contact rates in 2022 and ’23 were diminished relative to 2021 as well and Polanco still managed to remain productive.

Where Polanco found success in those years but not 2024 was in the power department: his barrel rate in 2022 was a well above-average 10.2%, and it jumped to an excellent 13.8% two seasons ago. Last year, however, it dipped to just 8.9%. That’s still an above-average figure overall, but a nearly five-point drop in barrel rate is sure to sap any hitter’s power output. Polanco was no exception to that, as after crushing 14 homers and 18 doubles in just 343 plate appearances in 2023 last year saw Polanco slug just 16 homers and 11 doubles despite stepping up to the plate 136 more times than he had the year prior.

While Polanco’s deteriorating contact numbers and vanishing power are both clear causes for concern, there is some reason for optimism as well. His 9.8% walk rate remained well above average in 2024, and his .311 xwOBA was 24 points higher than his .287 wOBA. That suggests at least some of his lackluster campaign last year was due to poor batted ball luck, and after a season where he posted a 92 wRC+ for the Mariners it’s easy to imagine him being more of an average to slightly above-average hitter by that metric had his results matched more closely with the underlying metrics.

A second baseman who can put up a wRC+ in the 100-105 range can be a valuable regular even when factoring in Polanco’s lackluster defense at the keystone, and it’s not hard to imagine Polanco being a steady, two-win regular if healthy enough to play a full season in 2025 even without his contract or power bouncing back. Between that solid floor of production at the possibility Polanco can rediscover either the power stroke or the more contact-oriented approach he found success with in previous seasons, he figures to be one of the better players available to teams in need of help at second or third base at this point in the winter—particularly for clubs that aren’t willing to commit what it would take to land Bregman, Nolan Arenado, or Ha-Seong Kim on an annual basis. The Yankees, Angels, Cubs, and Pirates are among a number of teams that could use help around the infield that Polanco could be a speculative fit for.

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