Mets right-hander Seth Lugo will undergo elbow surgery to fix a broken bone spur on Tuesday, the team announced. The issue was discovered after Lugo had been suffering from elbow inflammation during his offseason workouts. Lugo won’t begin throwing for at least six weeks following his procedure, so he will surely begin the season on the injured list as he continues to build up arm strength.
Lugo posted a 5.15 ERA over 36 2/3 innings for New York in 2020, beginning the season in the bullpen but then starting his final seven outings. Advanced metrics indicate that he pitched better than that 5.15 ERA would indicate, as Lugo’s numbers were skewed by two very poor starts against the Phillies and Nationals (Lugo was touched for 12 runs over three total innings) and a big home run rate. The righty had a 3.29 SIERA and very strong strikeout (29.4%) and walk (6.3%) percentages, while also posting a 48.5 grounder rate and some elite curveball spin.
A 34th-round pick for the Mets back in 2011, Lugo rose through the organizational ranks and broke into the Show as a starter in 2016-17, and also made five starts during the 2018 season. For much of 2018-19, however, Lugo was a very effective reliever out of the Amazins’ bullpen, and he was slated to return to that role (perhaps with the odd spot start) in 2021. While it doesn’t seem like Lugo’s surgery is overtly major, it obviously isn’t a good sign for him to miss such a big chunk of Spring Training, and he’ll need at least a month to properly prepare and ramp back up.
With Lugo gone for at least some time at the start of the season, Robert Gsellman and the newly-acquired Jordan Yamamoto look like the Mets’ top options for rotation depth should one of their projected starting five also suffer an injury prior to Opening Day. The Mets are still reportedly looking into starting pitching options, and if a new arm is added, Joey Lucchesi will likely be the odd man out who is moved into the bullpen.
and so it begins
And so WHAT begins?
Mets pitching injuries, a yearly occurance since 2014
LOL Phillies fans hoping for injuries to happen doesn’t mean they will. Ik you think it’s you’re only chance but chill.
Yeah, no other team ever has injuries. Lol.
But to your point, we do seem to have too many at the wrong time. Syndergaard brought his on himself (weight lifting) and just maybe, that’s part of the work out problem. Too many weights (bulk) and not enough stretching (limber). In Lugo’s case, not knowing where the spur is located, maybe it was too many breaking pitches adding up as a starter?
Thor is recovering and now Lugo is down. You’re pitchers, save DeGrom and rather injury prone.
It’s not as bad as the Angels’ constant injuries but deGrom seems to be the only prominent pitcher immune to the Mets’ cursed arms
@MetsFan22 He never said ge was rooting for injuries. He was simply pointing out the fact the injuries have plagued Mets pitching for the last 6-7 years. No one wants to see players hurt.
MetsFan22 seems to have a fat head.
Could be said it’s much longer than just 6-7 years.
In late 90s, their pitching injury luck was destroying the super group of mega prospects Paul Wilson, Bill Pulsipher, Jason Isringhausen and Bobby Wilson (the only that didnt fall victim to the constant injuries)
im beyond the point if engaging people on this. Thor and Lugo are already injured and the rest of their staff has injury concerns. its that simple. next question.
Oh, he (deGrom) had TJS before his outbreak of greatness.
that’s why I never mention even DeGrom as a sure bet. his injury histories continue to be left further behind, but it wasnt really all that long ago that they were a fairly consistent concern for him. Not Strasburg frequent, but quite present all the same.
Every team has to expect that 25% of its pitchers will spend time on the I-L during the course of a season.
@Phantom X Alderson, as usual, doesn’t know how to build the back end of the rotation nor the better half of the bullpen.
Edwin Diaz is now your closer, Mets fans.
And it’s so Mets that Lugo would discover this just prior to Spring Training.
not sure if it was intentional but… excellent reference to the LOTR.
as the rain begins to fall in THE BATTLE FOR HELMS DEEP.
I am sure met fans feel that way about their pitching annually
Mets…. lol. Any odds on Degrom leaving a start mid April due to forearm tightness
Considering that Lugo was a 34th-round draft pick, the Mets have certainly gotten a fair return on investment. Were they lucky, or smart when they drafted him almost ten years ago?
any collegiate pick that low requires a bit of both to work out.
At Rodcannon, maybe more of it has to do with Lugo the person, his work ethics, ability to adapt as different challenges arise and a willingness to be coached.
The game is full of ‘over achievers’ and maybe it’s just because they work harder than the ‘gifted’ athletes. I think Lugo is definitely one of those work ethic guys.
think it thru
@rodcannon Does it matter?
MetsFan22 does this injury make you a better team!
It doesn’t make the Nats pass us…
Never said that lol. I think were even tbh because our pitching is much better if e are healthy
Somehow this guy has a diamond card still in MLB The Show 20.
pensacola sox fan
What a great name
Mets should sign Odorizzi or Paxton now for more depth because the team that plays in Dunedin doesn’t want to sign them.
you mean the 2021 AL East Champions?
Ducky Buckin Fent
New York Yankees.
better hope that rotation stays healthy or they’ll be chasing Tampa for 2nd.
Lol Tampa’s rotation ain’t good either don’t know what your on, they’re banking on a ton of what ifs as well. Glasnow hasn’t logged over 125 innings in a year, Chirinos is hurt, Wacha archer and rich hill aren’t scaring opposing offenses, patino and Honeywell (if he comes up) don’t know what to get out of them, but to be fair they’ll probably be decent considering Tampa knows how to bring up young pitchers. But ya their rotation isn’t scaring anyone, neither is that offense.
They are still a scrappy team but your not taking a healthy Rays lineup over a healthy Yankees lineup. Nor would you take a healthy Rays rotation over a healthy Yanks rotation. Honestly I wouldn’t be surprised if Toronto takes second.
Jay Bruce’s signing is proof that Cash knows he erred in keeping his lineup too RH heavy. Let’s just hope he gets a quality starter in exchange for Clint Frazier, who now appears to be the odd man out.
Ducky Buckin Fent
So there’s that.
But – really – one could say the same thing about pretty much any team in MLB, uh?
&, the Yanks have proven to be exceptionally good at patching holes caused by injury.
So there’s that, too.
Also, last time I checked, both Vegas & Fangraphs favor the Yanks in the AL. Which is my final – but extra large sized – so there’s that.
At the end of the day, LV provides all the guidance you need. If Vegas says they are better, then they are better.
If he pitched to a 5.15 ERA than that’s how he pitched. The advanced metrics were wrong. You can say there were things that were still positives to take away from how he pitched, but the results were a 5.15 ERA. Results matter. When the advanced metrics show the pitcher got the results he actually got, then I might buy into them more.
Exactly why he shouldn’t be starting and be in the pen instead. Average 4.50 era as a starter vs elite 2.50 era pen arm
Kirk Nieuwenhuis For MVP
Looking at advanced metrics isn’t discarding the notion that results matter – the metrics help to contextualize the results that a player gets. The point isn’t to say that a 5.15 ERA is good, but that the underlying circumstances that result in a 5.15 ERA can be different depending on the pitcher and the team surrounding him.
You don’t even really need advanced metrics to dig further into Lugo’s 2020 anyway. ERA spikes pretty easily over a tiny sample of innings, which is what happened for Lugo – not to mention the fact that it was in a role that he’s generally been less successful in, which he probably won’t be pitching in once he’s healthy.
But the advanced metrics *do* show the results he actually got. You just don’t understand them. That’s fine; you can just ignore them and enjoy baseball the way you want to. No one is telling you that you have accept and love advanced stats. If you like ERA, RBI, W-L, etc, great. No need to denigrate advanced stats, though.
The advanced stats in this case can help you predict his future performance a little more accurately. In baseball, luck and skill go hand in hand. As an example, I can hit 50 screaming line drives in 50 ABs, but if all of them are directly at someone, my batting average is .000.
Conversely, if I hit 50 tappers up the third base line and reach base on all of them, my average is 1.000. Which player would you rather have going forward? Traditional stats would say the latter, advanced would say the former.
In this specific case, advanced stats are trying to tell you how much of Lugo’s performance was luck-based or a result of poor defense or a small sample size. You’re not asking solely how good he was in 2020, you’re asking how good he might be in 2021. Traditional stats will tell you that Lugo will be bad again in 2020. Advanced stats are telling you that might not be the case and he could bounce back.
That’s ultimately silly thinking
He only pitched 36.2 innings. In 3 of them (2 games) he gave up 12 runs, for a 36.00 ERA
But in the other 33.2 innings, he gave up just 9 runs, for a 2.41 ERA
He was never a 5.15 pitcher on the season, and that number comes solely from the extremly small sample size combining the 2 horrible games with his 14 well pitched ones
What the advanced stats do is tell you what most likely would have happened (based off 100+ years worth of the games track record) had he had enough time to pitch to a more normal amount of IP
So yes, the 5.15 is what did happen over that very small time, but the 3.30 range is what his actual talent level was, and that range is what he should have been expected to average out to if given a more normal amount of innings, based off talent level being shown
It’s basically like being a 90% free throw shooter who, by dumb luck, misses the very first shot. It will then take at least another 9 shots to get you to your 90% everyone knows you are. But if you were stopped after shot #2, you would look like a 67% free throw guy despite not being that. In baseball, advanced stats are in essence filling in the missed time based off your talent level being shown
The sooner casual fans understand small sample stats literally do not matter, the better.
@stymeedone Love it. You don’t understand advanced metrics, therefore what counts over 60 games is luck, not skill.
Lugo should not have been really counted on in our initial rotation because he is just too valuable in the 6th and 7th. He can easily give you more than an inning out of the pen which really saves daily arm usage on other pitchers. If he goes 2 or even 3 and saves the pen, they can easily work around him for 4 days. It’s just a shame that they didn’t do this months ago. He’s a very valuable part of this pitching unit.
We should’ve fine. He won’t miss a lot of time.
Better than fine if this spurs them to sign Rosenthal
Lol really people? Talking about people passing the Mets???? That’s already happened! Until the Mets do anything they need to pass everyone else based on last year. Tell me, what had your current team done “on the field” that has made the Mets a team to beat??………… waiting for it……….. oh wait nothing yet! SMH
they just have to score more runs now.
Can they undesignate Brad Brach?
That moment when management asks themselves why they didn’t sign Hand.
Just not impressed with Mets off-season moves.
Great Expectations isn’t just a library book!
Why is anyone really surprised that a pitcher is injured? Happens all the time.
Mets still have a long way to go – on the field, FO, analytics, farm system, upcoming FA’s and CBT issues.
Muts have been a dumpster fire for 40+ years including 1986. Look at the stories from that era. Mex was a coked up lounge lizard, Straw and Doc should have been knocking on the door to Cooperstown, but are barely navigating their personal lives after flaming out with a elite talent.
Sounds like the late 70s Yankees WS winners, who were all hopped up on amphetamines (greenies) fist fighting each other in the clubhouse. Funny how the “not classy” version of the Yankees won way more rings than the nonsensical facial hair rule-having Yankees have. It’s almost like dumb rules that are designed to make players boring are bad for not only the team, but the sport in general…
I really appreciate MLBTR writers breaking down exactly why pitchers slash lines were the way they were in the shortened season. I keep telling everyone we really should be adding 2019+2020 stats together and averaging them out, because just one or two rough 2020 outings (that also include bad umpiring) are blowing out a lot of pitchers numbers and making fans understand that 2020 stats are largely useless to compare with prior seasons due to the small sample is important, not to mention the no fans/covid protocols that have never been seen in MLB before probably messed with a lot of players minds, just like they did with everyone who had normal jobs. Kudos to MLBTR for making the differences known.
@Marty McRaie A better way to do it is weight 2017-2020 by multiples of 2, 3, 5, and 8, respectively, then using that projection to fill out the 102 games not played, and THEN redo the calculation using your projection for those 102 unplayed games.
You get the best of both worlds by assuming a player will revert, for the last 102 games of a full 2020 season, to his 2017-2020 norms. That gives you a full (if projected) season for 2020 from which to project a player’s 2021 season.
The way you’re doing it, just averaging 2019-20 together, gives too much weight to 2019, something that needlessly favors older players and punishes pre-prime age players.
Maybe he can come back in the middle of April.
Why did he wait until ST to address this issue?
@Robrock30 It’s the Mets way.
Mets might finish in 4th place.
No more moves.