The Padres beat the Dodgers in extras last night in yet another affirmation of baseball’s hottest rivalry, but there’s another team that sits between the Padres and the division-leading Dodgers out west: the San Francisco Giants.
At 14-8, the San Francisco Giants somewhat surprisingly sit tied with their partners across the bay in Oakland for the second-best winning percentage in baseball. It seems like every year we expect the Giants to bottom out, but under President of Baseball Operations Farhan Zaidi, the Giants put out competitive squads. And yet, they haven’t finished above .500 since 2016. They were 29-31 in 2020, just barely missing out on the final playoff spot in an expanded field.
They’re off to a fantastic start in 2021. Despite a lack of star power, the Giants pitching staff boasts a 2.94 ERA, second only to the Padres league-wide. By fielding independent pitching, the Giants allow 3.59 runs per nine innings, and while that suggests the ball may be bouncing in their favor early on, that’s still the seventh-best mark in the Majors. They’re a top-10 team in limiting free passes with a 7.9 percent walk rate and striking out an above-average 24.9 percent of hitters. Better yet, they’re keeping the ball on the ground at a league-best 49.9 percent groundball rate.
Coming into the season, a rotation pool of Kevin Gausman, Johnny Cueto, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Aaron Sanchez, and Logan Webb wasn’t likely first on Pitching Ninja’s teams to watch, especially not in a division with the star-powered rotations in San Diego and Los Angeles. The Giants’ group, by comparison, had former stars, late-developers, and injury perennials. Four turns through the five-man cycle, however, the Giants starters are second overall with a 2.46 ERA, fifth with a 3.16 FIP, and second by volume with 127 2/3 innings. They’re also limiting hard contact with a 28.6 percent hard hit percentage, tied for second overall.
Is regression coming to Oracle Park? They’ve benefited from the seventh-best batting average on balls in play (.256 BABIP), they’ve been best in the game at stranding runners with a 85.2 percent left on base rate, and they’re tied for third with a 9.7 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate. It’s pretty early to know how “earned” those rankings are.
While the pitching has been about as good as they might have hoped, the offense actually has some room to grow. As a group, their 89 wRC+ is a bottom-10 mark overall, despite a top-10 .176 team ISO. Like the pitching staff, the offense shares a .256 BABIP mark, fourth-lowest among offenses. Mike Yastrzemski’s potential oblique injury could be a blow, and while it’s been great seeing Buster Posey and Evan Longoria turn back the clock to the tune of 150 wRC+ and 160 wRC+, respectively, they are going to slow down.
This is our third season of Zaidi’s Giants. He can claim a number of savvy, low-key development wins like the star turns from Yaz and Gausman, but while they’ve sniffed around the edges of some significant free agents, they’ve largely let the big-ticket names head elsewhere. With the Giants off to the races in what’s sure to be a competitive division, will Zaidi be more aggressive on the trade market if they stay in the playoff picture?
Will they stay in the playoff picture? Are you bullish or bearish on the Giants’ hot start? April is a time for belief in baseball, so let’s see what y’all believe about the Giants.
(Poll link for app users)
As that one guy comments often, “lol the Giants”
They were nominated for a Golden Globe for ‘Best Team Act’ last night! I mean, common…
Being nominated by those dolts last evening is all the more reason/excuse for a major fold job soon.
season just started so i dont believe in this team yet
decent team, wrong division.
What division do they win other than AL east. I’m not arguing with you I’m just asking a question.
Dodgers
Brewers
Mets
Whitesoxs
A’s
The stand a decent chance in the NL Central
The Mets are 9-8. That doesn’t scream powerhouse, man.
Mets don’t belong on this list. Mets would be in 3rd in other divisions. Good on paper, but so far ugly play across the NL East.
You think the giants will finish with a water record than Mets??? Lol no.
No. I don’t, but I emphasized it with so far. The Mets look bad. The whole division does. I think the Braves and Mets have the best shot to turn it around, but the Mets are 9-8 and have had a fairly easy schedule so far. So right now,the Giants are a better team than the Mets. Will that last? Doubtful.
The Mets very well may be able to chug more water, I don’t know? I’ll trust your judgement on that one.
There has been nothing to suggest so far that the Giants can’t win more baseball games than the Mets.
The giants also didn’t deal with the what the Mets did and don’t have the significant injuries that the Mets do.
A lot of the giants key position players are starting to get hurt now.
Well, note the stats?! They are behind the Dodgers ahead of the Padres. Only the A’s are tied with them.
NL East
NL Central
AL East
AL Central
They are tied for First in the AL West.
100%
They’re not a bad baseball team, but that division has two juggernauts in it. If they stumble for a stretch- and they most likely will, as the offense doesn’t seem this good- they’re toast.
the offense has been terrible but tbh watch out if it does what it should and has (last year was top 5 in offense). the biggest stumble has been injury to the position players as longoria has been really good all spring, and yastremski being hit by a pitch on the last day of spring has really messed with him and he is finally starting to come around. They honestly should have 2-3 more wins at this point but the bullpen has had a few fluke nights that cost them.
Top 5 offense by what metric? They were:
8th in runs scored
7th in wRC+
6th by wOBA
10th in fWAR
6th in OPS
But more importantly, the season was 60 games last year. Do we really think Brandon Belt is now a 1.000+ OPS hitter? Or that Austin Slater is a .900+ OPS hitter? Or that Alex Dickerson is a .950 OPS hitter? Or that Donovan Solano is going to hit for .820+ OPS again? Will Yastrzemski have a .970 OPS this year?
OR were these guys hot over most of those 60 games last year and can’t be reasonably expected to post these numbers over 162 games?
Also of note, the guys that are hot so far this year (Longo, Posey) have NEVER posted a single season OPS better than .900. They’re both over 1.000 right now.
This is wrong…it is super easy to look up stats man
Gabe Kapler has changed everything in SF. Hopefully they keep winning to make Phillies fans regret they ever fired him.
Kapler can win 10 titles and I will still not regret it. hindsight is 20/20.
So many managers are terrible before they are good, Torre and Francona immediately come to mind, but there are many, many examples.
Experience and cultural and philosophical fits with both players and front office.
This isn’t a case of hindsight, it’s a case of misjudgement. You Philly fans bombarded Kapler for bullpen issues that weren’t his fault. Your bullpen was historically the worst in baseball history the year after he left. Phillies are a joke organization.
To all the Giants fans praising Kapler, Kapler had a good first half with the Phillies too. It’s the late season collapse you got to look out for. Phillies were in 1st place for the first few months of the 2019 season. I don’t think Kapler was necessarily the problem in Philadelphia, but he wasn’t great and lost the respect of the players.
the bullpen wasnt really an issue in 2018-19. the fact is his in game decisions were poor.
Plus the reason that bullpen was so bad was because of the short season and Klentak’s incompetence to put together a decent bullpen at the beginning of the season. David Phelps, Workman, Hembree, Guerra, Irvin and Pivetta are doing well so far this year so I have no doubt they are good pitchers, the short season just hurt them last year.
kapler is a actually a good guy for what the giants need right now. which is a manager focused on development and redevelopment – it is the key to how they have “overperformed” both last year and this year.
The Phillies had 2 pathetic September collapses under Gabe. They were in position to make the playoffs both years but Gabe lost the team. Like someone said above he could win 10 titles in SF. They regret nothing. Girardi is a much better skipper.
amk1920:
It’s interesting to me that so many Phillie fans are so anti-Kapler. The reason being that I understood the issue was Middleton wanting Kapler fired, while Klentak wanted to retain him. Oddly, it seems most fans have aligned themselves with the non-baseball guy. It seems to me that had Kapler truly “lost the team”, and made bad “in game decisions” as DarkSide asserts, Klentak would also have wanted him replaced.
They had a collapse last year as well under Girardi losing 8 out of 10 games when they were in playoff hunt all year. No better of a team with Joe even with a higher payroll. Much tougher to win here than with Yankees.
@njmatt82 Last year their collapses were due to a horrific pen, and key injuries to Harper, Arrieta, Realmuto and Hoskins. Now, this doesn’t give Girardi a pass. He’s been bad. The team has been bad. Organization has been bad. But Kapler lost the players respect.
Luckily the giants don’t have any players
Phillies bullpen was 10th in ERA in the NL in 2018-2019. 11th in FIP. Not Marlins bad, but not good
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&…
The way you worded your comment made it sound like the fans fired Kapler lol. I know what you mean though, honestly as a Phillies fan I think the managers position was never the problem, firing Rick Kranitz was the biggest mistake, because the pitching has been terrible ever since. I never understood the hatred that the rest of the fans have for Kapler, he wasn’t really better or worse than Girardi. If the Phillies don’t make the playoffs with Girardi the fans will probably treat him the same way.
Did he rope you into a coconut oil ponzi scheme?
No, I just don’t mindlessly hate people based on their performance in a sport like a manchild.
no. just no.
I believe in the pitching. Not much else.
I believe in Aaron Sanchez, So happy for Sanchez as he is doing amazing so far.
I believe in Gausman, Wood, and DeScalfani, If Sanchez keeps it up, that is a good rotation. All buy low candidates too. Makes Farhan look like the genius he is.
Only Gausmsn will remain healthy all year. Maybe.
As a Padres fan acknowledging how tough it will be to overcome the Dodgers (recent series notwithstanding), I welcome the giants being good. Padres need other teams in the division stepping up to put some L’s on LA so let’s go Giants! I’d rather have a division race with 3 95+ win teams than just Padres going against LA winning 110 because the other teams weren’t good enough to beat them some too!
Agreed. When the AL East used to be a juggernaut, it was really fun to watch games within the division. I didn’t care about sweeps but wanted series’ wins. Interleague play has watered that down now for me.
I think Gausman is legit this good now. Peripherals were incredible last year. Some guys just figure it out.
I also think Farhan is doing a great job. I also buy some of the veteran bouncebacks we’re seen, and the depth is going to come in handy in the dog days.
I do think they’ll be in the running for the second wild card even if they finish a dozen games behind the second place team in their division. Beating up on the woeful D-backs and Rockies should help. But it’s a tall order to try and stay ahead of literally every other NL team when the Dodgers and Pads are so tough.
It’s an odd year so nah not beliEVEN
This is such a weird poll. Too many choices, where more than one may be true, but you can only vote for one, so it tells you next to nothing about how people feel about any of them.
The last three options shouldn’t be there, or they should be apart of a different poll. And really, the “I believe in their pitching/hitting” choices are outliers as well. It is a jumbled poll.
Yeah. 9 choices with most of them non mutually exclusive. Not much of a poll.
Agreed. There should be a yes v no poll. Then separate questions. I can both not believe that the Giants will sustain their early season success and believe that Zaidi knows what he is doing etc.
No.
I beleive in Bigfoot, Paul Bunyan and Finn McCool.
If there’s a steady paycheck in it, I’ll believe in anything you say
No, because they still have two 4 game series @ LAD and that will be AT LEAST 6 loses for them there. 6 loses can definitely take away the 2nd wildcard from them. And then factor in the other games against the dodgers they’re done for. But then look at the last month of their schedule… 3 against the dodgers, 6 against the Rockies, 10 against the Padres, and 3 against the Braves. And of course 3 against the Cubs (but we won’t talk about that series). I guess I won’t leave the DBack series out of this because they’ll probably win 2 games.
In conclusion, if the giants are still not out of it before August 1, they will for sure be out of it in September.
They have power that plays better on the road but can still play at home. That is a key for them. They can pitch, they can catch the ball, they have lineup depth, but will they have enough starting pitching depth? The individual history of their staff suggests they will need it over 162.
IF they are a buyer in mid July, the Giants have the $ and lower level prospect depth to play in what is an ever declining trade deadline market. Wildcard to this deadline, if the tea leaves point to a work stoppage, don’t be surprised if players under long term contracts become available who normally would not. be available. In that regards the Giants are uniquely positioned to uniquely to add.
I do have to laugh a little at posters looking at September calendar as if the roster right now will be their roster in September. No one knows, just play the games.
sfjackcoke:
You’re spot on. The pitching, which has fueled the hot start, is not a surprise. All of the SPs had the potential to do what they’re doing this season. It’s no surprise that Wood, Sanchez, and DeSclafani, are throwing so well, since they’ve done this well in the past.
Gausman has been dominant ever since he started throwing his split-finger FB. Webb has always had nasty stuff, though he needs to be better in 0-2, and 1-2 counts. But he’s only 24 and should get better.
The big question is, can they stay healthy? Including Cueto, 2/3 of the SPs have a risk of not making it through a full season. If they do, the Giants should be competitive for a WC spot.
Nobody has caught on that The Dodgers are built for about 80 – 100 games. They won last year because Kershaw didn’t have a chance to hit a wall. Other than Baur the rest of their pitching is average. They were spotted 7 games at the start of the season and already are barely clinging to the division lead.
The Padres are the team in the NL West right now. I expect that they will take over 1st place by Mid May and wont look back. Perhaps sooner.
As far as the Giants are concerned, they never get the respect they deserve when the are playing well. They are a deep team that is under performing offensively. But they are still one of the top power teams, and they are getting power from several positions. They also wear pitching out, and that is why they’ve only lost two series this year. By the third game the opposing pen is depleted. They are not going to fade. They are a serious threat to put the Dodgers out of the post season.
The Red Sox and Brewers are nice early season stories but baseball is always a marathon. Neither have the horses or the farm system to trade for big pieces.
RS makes no false pretense that they intend to compete this year. Even if they exceed expectations, they’re better off holding on to their pieces to build a long-term winner in forthcoming years.
Hard to believe in or not believe in any team in April. Their pitching has been good though.
I like that Yaz guy.
What does it take to “believe in a team”? Do I believe they are a 100 win team, as their current win percentage projects? No. Do I believe they are a favorite to make the playoffs? No. Let’s have them play a playoff hopeful first. (ok, one series against the Pads, they scored 8 runs in the series, and the Pads scored less, the Pads seem to be struggling on offense to start the year). So does “believe” mean that I believe they are an MLB team? Yes, yes I do. They have some good players, some good pitchers, play in a park that accentuates their pitching strengths. They aren’t trash, and they ain’t the Dodgers. Can they compete? Of course they can compete. Would any sane person list them as favorites to win their division? I would think not. So they are a .500 team that could overachieve a few games depending on who they play, when they play them, etc. Or they could be a sub .500 team by a few games for the same reasons, who they play when they play them.
Helluva conversation with yourself
Gabe Kapler will ruin them
Gabe Kapler is the reason they’re 14-8
have you seen the rotation’s ERA?
I can’t wait until this reads “Joe Girardi will ruin them”
Sac, the giants-phillies series clearly showed Girardi to not be close to Kapler in decision making. Kapler outmatched him…easily. Your prediction will come true soon
They have what it takes to be exceptionally mediocre. I’m thinking 81 wins, give/take three. That’s by no means a knock, given the two intradivisional juggernauts they’re up against.
“Exceptionally mediocre” = extra medium
It was a dry attempt at humor, friend.
As a long-time Giants fan I like the way the organization is getting the most out of the limited talent on this present roster, and doing so despite significant injuries. But realistically I see a 80-85 win team that won’t make the playoffs.
That said, this is a transition year, with next season being the beginning of getting out from under several big contracts and moving towards spending in FA (a commitment made by ownership), while the productive farm is likely to add some solid ML pieces as well. If all goes well, this team is primed to join the Padres and Dodgers soon in what will become MLB’s best division. .We’ll see.
Can’t be best division when Rockies are in it. Elite maybe. But best indicates top to bottom and Rockies are worst franchise in professional sports
Run differential says differently
Sure they can. When the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays were battling year in and year out for the division and wild card. The AL East was considered the best division in baseball. And this was with the lowly Jays and Orioles.
85-77. Either the Mets or Braves significantly underperform, and the central stays as is, and it’s a playoff spot.
How can you not believe in the Giants ? They are one of the best ran franchises in baseball w the hardware to back it up. I like them better than any team in central. Maybe the East beats themselves up so much only one team makes it ? SF and SD are 2 wild cards.
SF can carry a max payroll yet have some 50 mil in cap space. When the time comes and they are ready to make a move – they can acquire top available talent by taking on their salaries to offset prospect returns.
Also Ramos and Bart could be ready this season. SF is in perfect position to bolster lineup
bot:
I gave you up a thumbs up, but have to say that Bart will not be ready this season. Catchers always need more time due to the huge amount of responsibilities they have, and Bart has played something like 22 games at AA, and zero games at AAA.
His progress has been retarded by there being no minor league season last year, and it being delayed this year. He needs to be playing every day in the minors, and unfortunately that isn’t happening. The Giants keeping Tromp, signing Casali to back up Posey, and his success at handling the pitching staff, tells you all you need to know about the Giants timeline for Bart.
I’m pleasantly surprised with where they are currently at, do I think they will sustain it? No, but it’s fun, Dodgers and Padres are just so good it’ll be hard to keep up, in saying that I trust what they are trying to achieve and come 22/23 Giants will be more competitive. Sell some pieces at the deadline and let’s keep being a thorn in the side for playoff contenders
There’s no such thing as Giants. Some people grow very large but that’s abnormal.
Lol. History = his story. Keep searching for the truth friend. Somebody’s been passing fact off as fantasy and u been buying it
That’s actually a quote from “Miracle on 34th Street”.
LOL
As a Padres fan, I absolutely believe in the giants. They have quietly gotten healthy and pieced together a decent roster without any huge payroll commitments.
Dubon needs to go back to the minors. Time to try someone else out in the super utility role. Slater is totally capable of playing center every day.
Dubon has been getting really unlucky this season. Like the play last week against Phillies where he got a hit to right field but Flores got thrown out at second because he was stuck in no-mans land. Dubon’s been playing better than his average reads.
Dubon hit a double yesterday and got thrown out at third when the next batter hit a grounder to short. You don’t do that in the big leagues.
tedtheodorelogan:
But you’re advocating for Slater over Dubon based on a running mistake, when Slater has made his share of bonehead plays. I remember him twice making the last out of the inning at 3B. That’s something you also don’t do in the big leagues.
@tedtheo
Dubon definitely has been a bit over aggressive lately (that play you just mentioned, got thrown out trying to stretch a single and then a day or two later probably should have been thrown out trying to stretch another single) but I think a lot of that is frustration and trying to make up for his bad luck.
The experiment in center has been okay; not good, not bad; he doesn’t always get a good read off the bat which leads to a poor first step but his defense at short has been good enough backing up Crawford; he’s scooped up everything hit to him and doesn’t seem to have any trouble with double plays.
But this is a team that’s a bit banged up right now in the infield and they need him right now. Besides, I don’t think you can point a finger at him and say he’s the reason they’ve lost any of their games; their losses are a combination of poor offense all around and the occasional leaky bullpen that couldn’t protect a small lead.
Besides two series, one each against Padres and Phillies, their schedule has been bit soft. They have faced Marlins 7 times, Rockies, Reds, and Mariners. It is too early to believe in this team. Let the season play out bit more so we know more.
Sanchez, Wood, & DeSacalfani have all been impressive and healthy. But all 3 are with the a giants because the have sketchy health history to a degree. Webb looked got yesterday but had been getting hit hard before that. Getting 90 -110 starts itself is unlikely and maintaining this quality is improbable. It could happen though which would make the Giants a wild card team.
Of the trip I would be most concerned with Woods. Sanchez looks healthy and recovered from major surgery and Descalfani is healthy. With Woods you just don’t know what you will get from a guy who is off injured.
We don’t know how healthy Sanchez is. He was pulled after 60+ pitches the other night with his velocity way down from previous starts and Kapler stated after the game that he is “not at his physical best right now,” I think the hope is that the cold weather in San Francisco was making it difficult for him to get loose but I think there’s a bit of wait-and-see with him.
Nope. Next question.
The author forgets to mention something – schedule difficulty. They’ve faced pretty easy teams so far, I think we’ll learn a lot more once they face the Dodgers, Mets and Braves.
they turned it on against the padres and tbh the giants even when they are bad consistently challenge or beat the dodgers so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go .500 or better against them
The only thing bad about April baseball is the media forcing us all to have takes about small sample noise. Why can’t we just enjoy the games without looking at the stats too hard until at least June??
you’re not obligated to read these posts nor vote in the polls.
Feel free to look at box scores, stats, and standings only until June. It’s almost like you expect to read AP news stories when you visit TMZ’s site.
The Zaidi model is becoming more and more clear with the Giants. He seems to be prioritizing spots 25-40 on the team’s roster much more than other teams. This results in a team of a bunch of “who’s that?” on any given night but a largely competent roster.
I don’t know how many times I’ve bragged about how good I thought a team was, and then watched them become mediocre because of one or two injuries. The Giants have been fun because their bench pieces are just about as competent as their starters.
The Giants are probably not the second best team in baseball. But I think they win 90 games and a wildcard spot. While their pitching has been getting a bit lucky, their offense has been getting quite unlucky.
He’s also been letting big contracts expire. There is likely a much more restrictive budget because Covid is limiting ticket sales. There will be a lot more budget next year, so this coming off season will be a much more accurate version of what we can expect going forward.
I do like his backwards deals though and the roster churn.
I don’t see why they couldn’t be a wild card team but that’s not saying much since everyone in the NL but maybe like 3 teams could.
Truly want to believe in the Giants and their success so far (14-8). And I hope they have continued success. Time will tell. It’s a long season with 140 games still to be played. Anything can happen.
Big no.
Only Space Giants.
Letting go of Madbum turned out to be a smart decision by management and a sign they’re moving in the right direction.
Though his no-no the other day was nice to see for a change – lately when surrounded by a mob scene it’s because he’s started a brawl, not because he’s done something to celebrate..
The Giants have a road map to the 2nd wildcard and it’s pretty simple. Beat up on AZ/COL, hold your own against LAD/SD so that you very near to .500 or better in the NL West. then look to play 10+ games over against the AL West, NL East and Central and hope the NL East all beat each other up.
I’m not a believer per se in Kapler to win games, what I do hope is the game has slowed down in the dugout for him that he doesn’t lose games. I do believe if the Giants hang around they will be active at the deadline and my wish list would be create a deep/versatile bullpen to make it as easy as possible for him to run. I always thought that was a huge error with the LAD in not helping Roberts especially in the post season.
I believe in Harvey Dent.
I believe that Farhan Zaidi frickin owns
I also think the Giants will win the World Series, but I’m less confident about that.
The Giants and Dodgers are going to be pacing each other for 2nd place all Summer, and late August will hit Kershaw once again. Padres will win the NL West with a few games cushion.
Giants 2nd place, Dodgers book October Family Vacations.
Regardless of the poll results and comments, you all would have said the exact same thing in 2010, 2012, and 2014..
This poll is too short. I would have voted for “Gabe Kapler is very handsome.”