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Red Sox Promote Jarren Duran

By Anthony Franco | July 14, 2021 at 10:59pm CDT

The Red Sox are promoting top outfield prospect Jarren Duran to make his major league debut tomorrow night against the Yankees, reports Joe McDonald of the Worcester Telegram & Gazette (Twitter link). Boston’s 40-man roster is full, so another move is required to accommodate the formal selection of his contract.

Duran is one of the game’s more promising young talents. While he fell to the seventh round of the 2018 draft coming out Long Beach State, he immediately improved his stock upon entering pro ball. The speedster posted incredible numbers across two levels of A-ball over his first year-plus in the minors before hitting a bit of a bump in the road upon a 2019 promotion to Double-A. He spent all of 2020 at the alternate training site, where reports suggested he’d revamped his swing path to incorporate more loft in an attempt to hit for power.

Evaluators took note of Duran’s changed profile, but last year’s cancelation of the minor league season still left some question whether he’d be able to translate his new mechanics into results. He’s done all he can to answer those doubts this season, hitting a whopping .270/.365/.561 across 219 plate appearances with Triple-A Worcester. Duran has popped fifteen home runs over the year’s first half after hitting a grand total of seven round-trippers over his 880 trips to the plate between 2018-19. A livelier Triple-A baseball could account for some of that production, but there’s little question Duran’s adjustments have had a sizable impact upon his newfound power.

The improved performance has also raised Duran’s stock in the public prospect rankings sphere. Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs now slot the left-handed hitting outfielder as the game’s #55 overall prospect. (Entering the season, he wasn’t among FanGraphs’ top 133 farmhands, although he did slot seventh in the site’s rankings of Red Sox minor leaguers).

Importantly, Duran’s uptick in power hasn’t come with much accompanying swing-and-miss. His 23.7% strikeout rate this season is right in line with his 2019 mark in Double-A. That’s a bit higher than his low minors strikeout percentages but not glaringly so, and there’s little question the improved batted ball authority has been worth any small dip in contact rate.

Now that he’s in the big leagues, Duran looks likely to take over center field on a regular basis. Boston has gotten very little out of the position this year, with a cumulative .236/.300/.392 mark from their group of Kiké Hernández, Alex Verdugo, Danny Santana and Hunter Renfroe. With Duran up, the Sox can rely on Verdugo and Renfroe in the corners on most days while keeping J.D. Martinez at designated hitter. That’ll push Hernández back into the utility role for which he’s best suited. Santana’s currently on the injured list, with Marwin González expected to land on the shelf as well. One of that underperforming duo could find themselves squeezed off the roster upon their return from the IL.

The Red Sox hold a 1.5 game lead over the Rays in the American League East, so Duran’s being thrust right into the thick of a pennant race. Between his combination of Triple-A production and the Sox mediocre center field situation, it had become increasingly apparent Boston should at least give Duran an opportunity to stake a claim to the job. He’ll get that chance beginning tomorrow against their archivals, over whom they have an eight-game advantage in the standings.

Duran won’t earn a full year of major league service in 2021, nor is he expected to accrue enough service time to qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player. If he remains in the majors from here on out, he’ll be controllable through 2027 and won’t reach arbitration-eligibility until after the 2024 campaign.

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Boston Red Sox Newsstand Top Prospect Promotions Transactions Jarren Duran

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View Comments (112)
Post a Comment

112 Comments

  1. birdsfan415

    4 years ago

    Brice or Andriese gone please

    14
    Reply
    • pasha2k

      4 years ago

      Both please

      7
      Reply
      • deweybelongsinthehall

        4 years ago

        Gonzalez to the UK is my expectation.

        1
        Reply
      • deweybelongsinthehall

        4 years ago

        Gonzalez to the IL although the UK might be appropriate. For once spell check was right.

        1
        Reply
        • SoxRule

          4 years ago

          Gonzales stays, you dope. He’s been much better than Santana.

          Reply
      • Mlb1971

        4 years ago

        IMO Brice gets DFA to make room on both the 40-man and MLB 26 man for Duran, and Chavis gets sent to AAA for Houck’s promotion.

        Position players stay at 12 and pitchers at 14. Bloom and Cora have only very briefly deviated from this.

        Reply
    • san888

      4 years ago

      Both please

      Reply
  2. Redsoxx_62

    4 years ago

    Let’s go!!

    1
    Reply
    • sufferforsnakes

      4 years ago

      Let’s go where?

      7
      Reply
      • FletcherFan66

        4 years ago

        To the playoffs, which is somewhere the Indians aren’t going

        14
        Reply
        • sufferforsnakes

          4 years ago

          Ooh, that’ll teach me.

          6
          Reply
      • Ham Fighter

        4 years ago

        Back to Worcester when he hits 136 by August 1

        3
        Reply
        • Dorothy_Mantooth

          4 years ago

          I highly doubt that. This kid has rookie of the year talent but he won’t play enough to earn it this year. Hopefully he’s still eligible as a rookie next season and he runs away with it!

          6
          Reply
        • Pangolin

          4 years ago

          Well, at least that would be a better outcome than hitting .186 all year like Frazier and still being on the Yankees roster…

          7
          Reply
        • jworth307

          4 years ago

          I doubt he’ll be eligible as a rookie next year. He’ll likely surpass 130 at bats or 45 games which would take away his eligibility.

          Reply
        • hawkny11

          4 years ago

          FWIW, Wander Franco, the #1 minor league player in 2021 was brought up by Tampa Bay. His first game was against the Red Sox in Tampa. That night he hit a home run and a double against the Sox in his first two at bats. Since then he has added 6 more hits, including one additional dinger. He is currently batting .187. This is the guy who arrived at the ballpark in a creme colored Rolls Royce. Remember.? On this basis I would say the chances of Duran being an immediate “star” for the Red Sox are quite remote. Keep his seat warm out in Worcester, coach.

          1
          Reply
        • Speak da Truth

          4 years ago

          Well if it isn’t Nostradamus..

          1
          Reply
        • YankeesBleacherCreature

          4 years ago

          Yes. Glad you came to that conclusion based on Franco’s 61 total at-bats and the car he drives.

          2
          Reply
        • deweybelongsinthehall

          4 years ago

          Just let him play. Negative vibes sounds like jealousy to me.

          1
          Reply
        • san888

          4 years ago

          Probably already better than Hicks who Yankees signed for $70M

          Reply
        • JoeBrady

          4 years ago

          He is currently batting .187. This is the guy who arrived at the ballpark in a creme colored Rolls Royce.
          ========================================================
          You see this every single year, without exception. It’s not that these kids don’t have talent. It is just that this game is really hard. There is a pretty good chance that the worst pitcher Duran sees this year, will be better than any pitcher that he’s faced in the minors.

          If the worst that he does is to create reasonably good platoon in CF with Kike, I’ll be real happy.

          2
          Reply
        • deweybelongsinthehall

          4 years ago

          Agreed Joe. Hoping for a strong start to help in 21 but regardless he has to prove himself in 22 and beyond.

          1
          Reply
        • Jack Marshall

          4 years ago

          Wow, what logic! Based on one other rookie’s performance out of the gate, you conclude that a different player, in a different park, in a different team, will be a bust. Brilliant.

          Reply
      • jdeucem2

        4 years ago

        Shout it out, where are we going!

        Reply
        • desertdan

          4 years ago

          No sleep til Brooklyn!

          Reply
  3. B-Strong

    4 years ago

    I fully support this.

    Reply
    • Curly Was The Smart Stooge

      4 years ago

      Duran ate his Wheaties in 2021, 15 hrs in 219 PA! Wow, put him in coach, he got the home run bug all of a sudden.

      2
      Reply
  4. mookiessnarl

    4 years ago

    Hah. I love how they usually let rookies debut on the west coast, and with Duran they’re like, New York. That should be a nice easy transition to the big leagues for you. Anyway, if he can play there he can play anywhere. Would love to have him in center hitting leadoff eventually.

    5
    Reply
    • RobM

      4 years ago

      It’s interesting, because over the years I’ve noticed the Yankees have debuted a number of their prospects against the Red Sox. Couldn’t tell if it was a coincidence, or by design, or just confirmation bias on my part since the two teams play each other 19 times a year.

      2
      Reply
      • mookiessnarl

        4 years ago

        Huh, apparently Betts debuted against the Yankees which I didn’t recall. Devers against the Mariners, Benintendi against the Mariners, Bogaerts against the Giants, Dalbec against the Nationals, recently they have taken to debuting guys when they’re on the west coast, which is why I expected it last week.

        Reply
        • mookiessnarl

          4 years ago

          Also Severino is the only Yankee I think in the last 10 years or so to debut against the Red Sox.

          Reply
        • mookiessnarl

          4 years ago

          Unless you count Refsnyder.

          Reply
        • Fever Pitch Guy

          4 years ago

          JBJ in Yankee Stadium too, and he was a top prospect at the time.

          1
          Reply
        • mafiabass

          4 years ago

          I thought Refsnyder went straight to Cooperstown /s

          Reply
        • JoeBrady

          4 years ago

          No, you have that backwards. Refsnyder was going to be traded for HOFer Mike Trout first.

          Reply
    • jim stem

      4 years ago

      @mookie. If you think about it, it’s not terrible strategy. I day this because there most likely is no ‘book’ on him yet.

      Reply
      • SoxRule

        4 years ago

        Anybody notice how average a player Mookie is this year? Remember how he had off-and-on years with the Red Sox?

        I much prefer Verdugo, Downs and Wong and less salary to one player.

        1
        Reply
  5. 802Ghost

    4 years ago

    That stat line is “whopping”??

    1
    Reply
    • FaithlessValor 2

      4 years ago

      It’s an OPS of .926, would be best for 10th in the majors (exactly what JD Martinez is hitting). I’d say it’s pretty dang good at the least.

      14
      Reply
    • karldanger

      4 years ago

      Yes that is objectively an outstanding slash line. What more do you need to see?

      8
      Reply
      • johnrealtime

        4 years ago

        I smell a batting average bro

        2
        Reply
    • Pangolin

      4 years ago

      I mean, yes. His ISO is nearly .300. That would be 6th in MLB right now. To claim he’s not absolutely crushing the ball in AAA is delusional.

      We will see if he does anything in the Majors, but his minor league stats are definitely “whopping”.

      6
      Reply
    • HBan22

      4 years ago

      A .926 OPS and a 45 home run, 35 stolen base pace over a full season thus far… I would most certainly call that a “whopping” stat line.

      9
      Reply
  6. pustule bosey

    4 years ago

    it will be really disappointing if jurran duran doesn’t use a duran duran song as his walkup

    9
    Reply
    • Reggie Smith

      4 years ago

      Hopefully ‘Hungry like the Wolf’, not ‘Invisible’.

      Reply
    • Ham Fighter

      4 years ago

      His parents are lame why didn’t they name him Jarren Duran Duran

      1
      Reply
    • CaptainCanada

      4 years ago

      I came here for the Duran Duran jokes

      Reply
  7. HBan22

    4 years ago

    All I could think when Franchy Cordero was still starting for the Sox was “Just be patient, it’ll all be over soon. Duran is crushing it more than ever, just hang in there”… So I have definitely been looking forward to this day, as I’m sure every Sox fan has. I’m a believer at this point in Duran. He was all tools for a little while there, but he has made tremendous strides both offensively and defensively the past couple seasons. He always had great speed and athleticism, but his development of power is what has turned him into a truly exciting, potential five-tool prospect. I’m interested to see where they bat him in the lineup, at least to start out. Let’s go Jarren!

    3
    Reply
  8. case

    4 years ago

    Lol, prospects are now having to adjust their approach for a juiced baseball. I wonder which players will suddenly become significantly worse if the MLB ever goes back.

    Reply
  9. hawkny11

    4 years ago

    I hope all of the allocades for Duran are spot on but have my doubts.. 3 or 4 weeks from now we will have some idea. of whether he is ready or not.

    1
    Reply
    • lasershow45

      4 years ago

      He’s 24. Look at Middlebrooks who came out hot, Pedroia who came out slow. Trout, who debuted really slow. You won’t get an idea in 3 or 4 weeks. It’s more like a year or two. Give the kid time to get settled, dang.

      1
      Reply
  10. Dadbodfromseattle

    4 years ago

    Duran Duran how is 270 whopping in triple a

    Reply
    • HBan22

      4 years ago

      Look at his .OPS and power numbers.

      6
      Reply
    • juanc-2

      4 years ago

      Lol. You’re harping on batting average? Get with the times.

      5
      Reply
      • Reggie Smith

        4 years ago

        BA x Jersey Number divided by Hair Style is much more accurate.

        1
        Reply
  11. RobM

    4 years ago

    Duran does have the earmarks of a player who could step into the majors and be overrated from the start. Big market team; excited fanbase with very lofty expectations craving for his arrival all season; produced his AAA numbers with the 2019-20 MLB rocket ball that is no longer being used; an approach prone to a bit of swing and miss; and while he has a decent prospect ranking, it’s not an exceptionally high one too as many players in this range turn into busts. The negatives out of the way, he’s talented, so looking forward to see what he’s got.

    1
    Reply
    • DarkSide830

      4 years ago

      i honestly do expect more growing pains than most,but I like him to be a pretty good player going forward in the end.

      2
      Reply
    • Bruin1012

      4 years ago

      Rob do you even know anything about Duran? Duran didn’t produce numbers in AAA, in fact, this year is the first year he has been in AAA. Duran was a contract oriented no power hitter in 2019 and before. He hit for a high average at the lower levels but was never a highly thought of prospect because he simply used his speed make contact and put a lot of pressure on the defense and that worked in the lower levels. After a torrid start in high A ball in 2019 he was promoted to AA where he struggled mightily. He was playing better at the end of the season but still not really a big time prospect he wasn’t even close to a top 100 prospect at that time.

      After the 2019 season he was convinced that someone his size should not be a Punch and Judy hitter and he should use his natural strength to drive the ball. He took to the change very well and was set to go back to AA and show off his new swing and test it in competition but then Covid happened. His showing at the alternate site was very exciting because he took so well to his new swing change. He then played in the Puerto Rico league and tore it up in the playoffs.

      This year he went directly to AAA and hit right away and hit for power. Worcester is a new park but all signs point to it being an exceptionally friendly hitting park how much of a difference this makes we won’t know for a while.

      This is the first year that Duran has been recognized as a legit prospect and it’s because he is now showing power that he never showed before. He is rocketing up the prospect lists because of his swing change and going away from a contact approach and is now driving the ball. He appears to be a classic late bloomer.

      2
      Reply
      • KD17

        4 years ago

        Bruin2012 – Outstanding summary of Duran and I loved the punch and judy reference!! Old school.

        For me, he was groomed as a prototypical lead-off man. Big runs scored stats and modest RBIs. Unless the coaching staff or his agent tells him it’s a good idea to switch it up and be more of a power hitter, young lead off hitters don’t think about changing something that is working. Obviously someone got through to him this past off season and he’s not just changed his stance, swing and hitting philosophy he’s added strength and might even have added some quickness to his hands that is producing dividends in AAA.

        He now resembles the kid from the White Sox (Madrigal) in that he’s using his excellent hand-eye coordination to put the ball in play all over the park. He might struggle like most rookies when pitchers adjust to him but like Madrigal it should be a short struggle followed by some excellent batting average improvement. He needs to increase his walk percentage but that’s something coaches can help him with whereas his innate hand/eye coordination is natural ability. He will be a great addition for years. Let’s hope he can stay healthy and not follow in Fred Lynn’s footsteps as an injury prone player with great talent.

        2
        Reply
        • Mlb1971

          4 years ago

          Fred Lynn was not too injured to accomplish:

          9 All Star selections
          1 MVP
          1 ROY
          1 ALCS MVP
          4 Gold Gloves
          1 AL batting title
          Lifetime – BA .283 – HR 306 – RBI 1,111

          I can only hope Duran compares favorably to my all time favorite player.

          Reply
    • Bruin1012

      4 years ago

      Just a quick perusing of Durans home/away splits there is quite a large difference though admittedly a rather small sample size.

      Reply
    • BeforeMcCourt

      4 years ago

      23% K rate is a problem?

      Since when?

      Reply
  12. 30 Parks

    4 years ago

    Boston is overachieving (for now).

    1
    Reply
    • mlbnyyfan

      4 years ago

      I have to give Boston credit for finding great talent in later rounds including best player in MLB Betts. Yankees definitely lack in player development.

      6
      Reply
    • hawkny11

      4 years ago

      There is no such thing as “over-achieving”. Cora simply has the team. playing at its “collective” best almost every day they play. Some managers just do not have that ability in their makeup but Cora does.

      3
      Reply
      • 30 Parks

        4 years ago

        Can a team underachieve? Sure. Then a team, automatically, can overachieve. There’s no up without a down. I don’t believe the Saint Cora singular reasoning.

        Reply
        • Deleted User

          4 years ago

          Any team that wins the World Series is an overachieving team because to “expect” to win the World Series is a delusion. There are a handful of teams that can. One will overachieve and do it.

          4
          Reply
        • CaptainCanada

          4 years ago

          this comment is a fact

          Reply
      • Fever Pitch Guy

        4 years ago

        Funny, both Grady Little and Jimy Williams were given “credit” for successful Red Sox teams. How did their managerial careers go after leaving Boston?

        Cora is the beneficiary of talented high payroll teams. He has arguably the best trio of hitters in MLB, and a bullpen whose Top Six relievers match up better than any other. He’s also been incredibly lucky to avoid injuries to any key players.

        If you insist on giving him credit for 2018, then certainly he deserves the blame for turning a 108-win World Champion team into a 84-win team that couldn’t even get in the playoffs.

        3
        Reply
        • JoeBrady

          4 years ago

          Fever Pitch Guy
          Cora is the beneficiary of talented high payroll teams.
          ========================================================
          True, but this season, $56M of that payroll hasn’t played an inning for the RS. He’s doing really well.

          Reply
      • KD17

        4 years ago

        Hawkny11 – Did Cora take 2019 off? Or is it far more factual that he has absolutely nothing to do with this year’s success or the 2018 success. It’s all about how the players perform. The entire team (except Devers) had a career year in 2018 including DD’s additions and this year JD, Bogey, Devers are having career years again while Verdugo and Renfroe are playing above their actual abilities. It also doesn’t hurt that the Yankees have spent over 3 months playing like a AAA team and TB lost Glasnow so it’s taken many breaks to be in the hunt for a playoff spot this late in the season Injuries or lack of injuries to be more accurate have a lot to do with their current standings position..

        Things may go back to normal or this could be just one of those lucky years where everything goes right but it has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with the cheater (or does it? That might just be the answer again!)

        On second thought, you may be right about how this is happening!! After all, he was with Houston cheating to win in 2017, with the Red Sox to win in 2018 and if the Red Sox win again with him EVERYONE has to wonder how he cheated this time. Until Cora puts on a uniform and plays he’s just a guy handing a line-up card to the home umpire to start the game. His team deserves ALL the credit whether they win or lose. Cora didn’t take credit for 2019 so why should he get credit for this year or 2018?.

        Shortchanging the players is completely unfair.

        Reply
    • Occams_hairbrush

      4 years ago

      Yeah, they overachieved the last time they won the World Series as well. It’s funny how overachieving teams tend to do well.

      Thanks for the analysis.

      7
      Reply
      • Reggie Smith

        4 years ago

        Agree with Curtis. They overachieved in 3 of their 4 WS wins. Think ’07 was the only year they were considered true contenders out of the gate.

        1
        Reply
        • whyhayzee

          4 years ago

          The 2018 team won twice as many games as they lost and then played even better in the postseason.

          Overachieved my arse. They crushed everyone.

          Just because people can’t predict accurately doesn’t make teams overachieve or underachieve. It’s the predictors who are wrong. Performance speaks for itself and it is all that matters.

          Reply
        • Reggie Smith

          4 years ago

          By your logic whyhayzee, noone’s ever an overachiever. Your looking at the end result and then determining if it was accurate. Of course it is.

          Now for a legit test:
          I checked 2 preseason predictions, for 2018, and both had the Yankees taking AL East (mlb.co and trueblue). Neither had the Red Sox in the WS. Vegas had them at 10 to 1.

          They didn’t overachieve as much as 2014, but they defiinitely did overachieve.

          Reply
        • whyhayzee

          4 years ago

          I’m talking about prediction accuracy. People incorrectly predict outcomes all the time. It means the prediction is wrong. Examine the prediction after the fact to see that it was wrong. Then examine the methods and attempt to get closer next time.

          1
          Reply
        • KD17

          4 years ago

          whyhayzee – We don’t often agree but you are spot on this time! Experts are the farthest things from experts when predicting everything about baseball. Some math major in college ought to flip a coin and see if they can out predict all the supposed experts.

          The 2018 team was loaded with lesser recognized talent but it was still talent and when they all played well it turned into a championship. In 2019 they had the same talent but a huge mistake by the manager put them behind the eight ball and then the injuries buried them. Did the talent level actually go down? NO. They simply had an off year with injuries, poor performance and the weakness of the manager being exposed.

          In 2021 their talent level dropped dramatically when Mookie and Price were given to LAD. Then COVID hit a team that lost it’s chemistry due to a devastating trade. Did the talent of the core 2018 team disappear or was it simply a second bad situation based on COVID, a terrible trade and a earth shaking blow to the chemistry of the team caused by ownership?
          It was a temporary setback for JD, Bogey and Devers, Add to that a significant drop-off it talent from losing Mookie and Price and 2020 turned in a bad shortened season that had one upside, the fourth pick in the draft..

          2021 is a fresh start. Chemistry was created by absorbing Verdugo and others into the mix of players. Dever’s got his baby sitter back. The schedule didn’t start in Japan or even on the west coast, it started with Baltimore (ironically they lost the first series against the worst team in the division). Since the first series, players have reverted back to their big years of 2018 with Devers being far more valuable helping to make up for Mookie not being in the line-up. Renfroe and Verdugo have done much better than expected and the pitching hasn’t sucked as much as it should have. Eovaldi looks like the $17M pitcher DD signed and Sale has a chance to add at least 6 weeks of dominance to the team down the stretch. Add to that, DD’s farm system guys Dalbec and Houck have done better than expected and the myriad of utility players have done just enough to not cost them games this season. All this just shows that some things have exceeded expectations but not for the core players. The core 2018 stars are doing exactly what people should have expected. Eovaldi is living up to his actual talent level

          For all these reasons I completely agree with you that most experts don’t have a clue how to predict a coming season, a farm system or the future of individual players.

          Great comments Whyhayzee!!!

          2
          Reply
        • YankeesBleacherCreature

          4 years ago

          This is a good summation!

          Reply
        • whyhayzee

          4 years ago

          “Some math major in college ought to flip a coin and see if they can out predict all the supposed experts.”

          I was that math major, but I think my coin fell down the sewer grate. Oops.

          I do understand the overachieving / underachieving concept. One could say that with players as well as with teams. It’s tempting to equate the work put in with the results gotten out and that’s a valid point. Proper preparation tends to lead to improved performance. It’s what goes on off the field that I think leads to the achievement level. It might be a mistake to equate performance strictly to preparation, though. Remember, in baseball there is an opponent. It’s not just running a race. It’s that the opponent is working to figure out how to defeat you. Then you have to adjust. Again, preparation. Add in the variability in performance (well, except for Mr. .247 Davis) and you’ve got all the components of judging how a team and it’s players are performing.

          There are principles that can be followed in prediction but they often apply more accurately on a collective basis than in individual situations. In other words, I can probably predict performance more accurately for a group of players than for one specific player. That would seem to imply a team overall approach. But even collective performance doesn’t always equate directly to wins and losses.

          Sigh, when in doubt, go back to pitching and defense. If that’s there, you have a shot. It’s too damn hard to know what will happen. That’s the fun.

          Reply
        • JoeBrady

          4 years ago

          In other words, I can probably predict performance more accurately for a group of players than for one specific player.
          =============================================================
          That’s pretty much true for anything. The larger the sample size, the more accurate the prediction.

          Reply
        • whyhayzee

          4 years ago

          I’m not changing the sample size, just using the same data differently.

          Reply
        • Jack Marshall

          4 years ago

          Ugh. What the “experts” conclude does not constitute reality. Basing any analysis of Boston based on last season was idiotic; the whole pitching staff was wiped out by injuries, and 60 games proves nothing. The 2004 team was regarded as a contender out of the gate—only Grady Little’s idiocy kept the 2003 team, which was basically the same, from going to the Series.. The 2013 team was ridiculously under-rated because every one on the 2012 team either was injured or had the worst season of their career. In short, you don’t know what you’re talking about..

          Reply
        • JoeBrady

          4 years ago

          Jack Marshall9 hours ago
          Basing any analysis of Boston based on last season was idiotic;
          ==============================================================
          I tried to explain that to one of the posters in here that insisted that even 70 wins was a fantasy. It isn’t that complicated. Take the expected OPSa of each pitcher, weighted for their innings pitched. Take the expected OPS from the offense. Apply the PY theory. That’s your baseline.

          I predicted 85.5 wins, but I also expected nowhere this amount of health for the rotation.

          Reply
  13. Kike Can of Corn

    4 years ago

    I agree we’re over-achieving but it’s great. The pitching will come back to earth but there are enough bats in that lineup that we can win some crooked score games. It may not be this year but Bloom has them on the right path

    1
    Reply
    • Reggie Smith

      4 years ago

      Pitching could regress. But, 90 games is a large sample size. No reason they can’t keep it up over the last 70, especially with Sale likely returning.

      3
      Reply
      • whyhayzee

        4 years ago

        Don’t forget Houke. If any of these five who have started all but a couple of games are out, he’s the first replacement.

        3
        Reply
      • Fever Pitch Guy

        4 years ago

        Considering the starting rotation has underperformed, I’ll assume y’all are saying the bullpen will regress. But I don’t think it will, not much anyway. Barnes was a beast in 2019 and Ottavino had some better years.

        1
        Reply
      • Mrivers

        4 years ago

        Richards began regressing a while ago. Sox pitching likely won’t hold up in the playoffs, but getting there is a great feat.

        Reply
  14. Dorothy_Mantooth

    4 years ago

    Bye, bye Danny Santana. I’m so excited to see what Duran can do at the MLB level. It’s about time!!!

    8
    Reply
    • dbdmack

      4 years ago

      that is who i think gets cut as well.

      Reply
    • Rsox

      4 years ago

      Santana is on the IL so for now it’s likely bye bye Chavis

      Reply
      • Dorothy_Mantooth

        4 years ago

        They need to make room on the 40 man roster for him. No way they will DFA Chavis. Santana is the most likely candidate to be DFA’d. They may send Chavis back to the minors but they will not DFA him.

        Reply
        • Rsox

          4 years ago

          They could designate Brice. More than likely he clears waivers anyway

          Reply
      • butch779988

        4 years ago

        Marwin going to IR

        Reply
    • JoeBrady

      4 years ago

      I agree he is most likely to go.

      Reply
      • Fever Pitch Guy

        4 years ago

        Yeah God forbid Cora goes with “just” 13 pitchers.

        2
        Reply
    • Mrivers

      4 years ago

      Yeah, he can step right into CF with nothing in his way. Unfortunately, Yankees watch while Franco, Walls, Brujan, Manoah, now Duran come up. Not all great, but some will stick. And there will be Josh Lowe and Shane Baz later. And Rutschman next year.

      Reply
  15. Mynameisnoname

    4 years ago

    It’s not just the swing. His dad is a tank and the year off provided Jarren a chance to go home and put on serious mass while training in his dads home power gym.

    He always had the twitchy speed, now he has noticeable strength gains in BP and game situations. Like a power forward who was a point guard until a late growth spurt, adding physical dimensions to an established speed set is an awesome advantage.

    3
    Reply
  16. someoldguy

    4 years ago

    too bad this Kids parents didn’t have a sense of Humor.. he could be Duran Duran.. a musical group named after the the villain in Barbarella.. Durand Durand

    Reply
  17. Speak da Truth

    4 years ago

    Calm it down. Duran is gonna be a beast at the major league level in the next 2 years from now.
    Not every player has that it factor and he does. He comes through huge in key situations when needed and that’s something you can’t teach. Duran is gonna be special. You can cash that!

    1
    Reply
    • Speak da Truth

      4 years ago

      Calm it down. Duran is gonna be a beast at the major league level in the next 2 years.
      Not every player has that it factor and he does. He comes through huge in key situations when needed and that’s something you can’t teach. Duran is gonna be special. You can cash that!

      Reply
  18. bobtillman

    4 years ago

    Shades of 1967, when manager Dick Williams took a young 2B, Reggie Smith, and put him in CF. Why? They didn’t have any better.

    Same deal here. The Sox stink in CF, and obviously need an upgrade; so too at 1B (tho Bobby D. has turned into Keith Hernandez, saving that horrible infield from commiting 5 errors a game). If Duran performs to at least a “meh” level, it will be an improvement.

    Why have the Sox succeeded this year? How ’bout the division stinks. TB, NY are no where near any type of dominance, Blue Jays aren’t there yet (tho they could sneak). Has Cora had an influence? Ya, probably; Ronieke (sp) was always a little too old school for this bunch, most of whom, besides Xander, are closer to nursery school than to being professional. But the talent is obvious. With just a modicum of pitching, they should take the division. And we’ll see whom Bloom can acquire, and if Sale can sail.

    Reply
    • JoeBrady

      4 years ago

      bobtillman
      Shades of 1967, when manager Dick Williams took a young 2B, Reggie Smith, and put him in CF.
      ==============================================================
      Dude, you are reaching way back. Out of all the older guys that should get a shot at the HOF, Reggie is #2 on my list (after Dick Allen).

      Reggie’s bWAR is 64.6, compared to Vlad (59.5), Puckett (51.2), Dawson (64.8), Gwynn (69.2), and Raines (69.4). However, most of those guys played until they old. Reggie’s bWAR/650 PAs is 5.3, while the best of those 5 HOFers is 4.4. Reggie was a good bit better.

      Even Dewey, who I think belongs, only had a 4.2/650. And except for the misfortune of playing in the same league as Paul Blair, Reggie would’ve had a few more GGs.

      Reply
      • bobtillman

        4 years ago

        Paul Blair…wow…I was the only kid in New England that had a Paul Blair poster on his wall…he was sooooooooo elegant…Andreu Jones will always be the gold standard for me as a CF, but Blair was something else….The great ones make it look easy.

        I think it was Shaughnessy who called the Smith trade the “all hate trade”. The Sox hated Reggie because he wasn’t the submissive, loveable African American that George Scott was; the Cards hated Carbo (lifestyle) and Wise (always cried about being underpaid). (I think the Sox included Tatum just for balance).

        Reggie was always behind the 8-ball in Boston. There was Yaz, the working class hero and Conig, who every young lady wanted to sleep with. Then they added Hawk, who proceeded to look like Babe Ruth for a couple of months. Not a lot of ink left for Smith. And as I said, they weren’t crazy about him anyway.

        But, like Rico and Jose Santiago and Andrews, he was one of the real heroes of that ’67 team.

        Reply
        • whyhayzee

          4 years ago

          If Tony C doesn’t get hit in 67, if Rice isn’t hurt at the end of 75. Smith and Lynn did a pretty good job on those teams. Homegrown teams with a lot of talent.

          Reply
        • JoeBrady

          4 years ago

          Paul Blair and Garry Maddox were crazy good defensively. I modeled my defense, such at it was, after those two, I got okay at sprinting head down as fast as I could, without losing the track of the ball. It was half the speed of Blair & Maddux, but I impressed myself.

          Did you know that Brett was with the team at age 18?

          Reply
  19. madmc44

    4 years ago

    Comparison to Mookie not beyond possible;: both drafted as a 2 B., both have excellent speed and base stealing ability, both good arms, both good OBP, both capable of hitting for power.
    Bloom knew what he was doing trading Mookie. It’s up to Duran to see if Bloom was right.
    Verdugo was a good start. Jeter and Wong may help down the road.
    It will be interesting to see what happens with Cordero, Chavis, Hernandez and Dalbec as they look for more minor league depth and pitching help. If Sale can return in August and
    Houck is ready for the stretch drive things might look promising

    1
    Reply
    • JoeBrady

      4 years ago

      Great time to be a RS fan. We have a virtual tie for best AL record. We just extended Barnes. It looks to me like we had a really good/lucky draft. Bloom/Cora are starting to remind me of Theo/Tito, though obviously we need to see a few more years of success to compare them.

      1
      Reply
  20. bobtillman

    4 years ago

    Calm down, Sox fans. You don’t need Duran to be Mookie; you just need him to be better than Kike. And I think they’re recalling Houk, also. But this isn’t a team looking for a savior..

    But this is a team that fans should expect to win; they really have no excuse not to (yes, that standards are different when you have 600M in revenues).And folks who were burring them in pre-season prognostications were just silly; with THAT lineup???? They could trip to a .500 record. And given the weakness of the AL East, and a little luck, it was always EASY to see them winning it. (I could never see the Yankee expectations; they’re actually playing exactly as I thought they would).

    Reply
  21. badco44

    4 years ago

    40 man spot opened up a week or so ago when Barzado was put on the 60 day IL

    Reply
  22. nailz#4life

    4 years ago

    here is your next Dustin Pedoria version 2.0.

    Reply
  23. ratedrdude

    4 years ago

    I also think Frenchy is primed & ready to go now that he’s been getting consistent at bats in Triple A…

    Reply

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