The Cardinals rotation has featured a series of guest stars and few regulars this season, with 12 different pitchers taking a turn and only 40-year-old Adam Wainwright logging enough innings to qualify. As a group, they’re 13th in the Majors in terms of starters’ innings, and 12th league-wide by measure of ERA (4.02 ERA). By measure of FIP, however, their 4.46 FIP ranks 20th in the game, and if we look ahead to 2022, there’s more than enough uncertainty to make nervous thinkers in Redbird Nation fret.
The five guys currently taking hill turns for manager Mike Shildt have an average age of 36.5, so it’s not a sprightly group. Except for Miles Mikolas, they’re all heading towards free agency at year’s end, too. In fact, of those 12 players who have started a game in 2021, six will be free agents, and John Gant has already been dealt to Minnesota. All of which is to say, the Cardinals have their work cut out for them before Opening Day 2022.
The cupboard isn’t barren, however. For starters, there will be the annual Wainwright retirement question. But with Yadier Molina coming back for one final season, isn’t it almost too perfect for Waino to do anything but follow suit?
Jack Flaherty raises the ceiling of the group, and they’ve made clear that priority one is getting their ace ready for next season, even if that means shutting it down the rest of this year. Dakota Hudson will be an interesting wildcard as he returns from Tommy John. Mikolas is also trying to get healthy, having made just three starts this season. The Cards are on the hook to pay him $17MM in each of the next two seasons, so if the 33-year-old can get healthy, he should have a rotation spot.
Not to mention, any of Jake Woodford, Johan Oviedo, T.J. Zeuch, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, or Angel Rondon could be given a look. There are definitely arms floating around in the organization that could ramp up to earn rotation minutes.
But there’s another familiar name that’s going to be given a chance to win a rotation spot: Alex Reyes.
Reyes turns 27-years-old tomorrow, and the former top prospect is in the midst of an establishing campaign. In what’s really been his first full season in the bigs, Reyes has a 2.50 ERA/3.90 FIP over 57 2/3 innings. His usage has certainly been consistent: of his 55 appearances, 50 of them have finished the game, a mark that leads the Majors. Simply put, he’s gone from a high-ceiling rotation question mark to an All-Star closer.
But next season, Reyes will follow Carlos Martinez in the Cardinal tradition of yo-yo-ing organizational expectations from starter to closer and back again. Let’s be clear, for this season, Reyes is the Cardinals closer and that’s the end of it. But next year is a different story, said Shildt on MLB Network Radio. Reyes will be given the opportunity to compete for a rotation spot in 2022.
Reyes has maintained a starter’s arsenal in the bullpen, throwing his fastball, slider, and sinker with almost equal usage rates. He’s been even more diverse against lefties, mixing in an occasional curveball or change-up as needed. His heater has averaged 96.5 mph, which is right around what he was averaging when he first came up as a starter. It might be, then, that he’d lose a tick or two if spread out to a starter’s workload.
The concern relates to his injury history and whether or not the Cards should risk losing another valuable bullpen arm by risking a move to the rotation. There’s more upside in the rotation, of course, but there’s something to be said for letting Reyes stay where he’s been successful. After all, if there’s a desire to get him more time on the mound, the Cards could ramp up his usage with multi-inning outings instead of making a full-scale switch to the rotation.
However many innings Reyes finishes with this season will be his most in a single year since the 2016 campaign. He threw between 100 and 110 innings from 2014 to 2016, which is pretty typical for a young arm on the rise. Whether one healthy season is enough to make Reyes ready for that kind of workload again is unclear.
As a starter, of course, the hope would be that he’d surpass even those totals. That said, it’s looking like only Wainwright and Kwang Hyun Kim will accumulate more than 100 innings from the Cards’ rotation this season, so there’s space to make an impact even without posting an 150-inning season.
Even tempering expectations, the Cards could expect 40-50 more innings from Reyes if he can stay healthy in the rotation. Considering his injury history, however, it’s tempting to take the money on the table now and settle in with Reyes as the closer of the next few years.
Of course, Cardinal closers haven’t been any more immune to arm injuries than their starters have, so there’s an argument to be made that whichever course they take with Reyes, there’s risk. If that’s the case, why not pursue the upside of a rotation slot?
From the beginning of the year, the Cardinals have maintained that this season would be an opportunity to inch Reyes’ workload closer to that of a starter and look ahead next season. He’s been much closer to a traditional reliever than the multi-inning firearm we might have expected, but he’s still likely to finish with something close to 70 innings.
The last consideration is timeline. Even though this will be Reyes’ first full season in the Majors, he has just two years of arbitration remaining, so it might be now or never to see if Reyes can be a starter before he hits the open market. Two years as a starter might make Reyes too pricey for the Cards, but it might also give them enough certainty to lock him up at the right rate, knowing he could be a starter moving forward.
Wainwright believes Reyes can make the jump, per Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, who provides this quote from Reyes about Wainwright: “He always looks at me and tells me, ‘Hey man, you’re a starter. You know I was there, and I was able to do it. I believe you can. Just those words of encouragement, they make me feel good. And also, they give me the thought. Someone like Adam Wainwright, who has had such a long career here and has been pitching for so long, if he thinks like that of me?”
Let’s give the St. Louis brass some help and point them in the right direction.
(poll link for app users)
Louholtz22
The Cards have limited starter options unless they sign a couple of FA’s. I’m sure they will. Not gonna let Arenado and Goldy go to waste
seamaholic 2
Not sure they have the budget to go big. Maybe second or third tier guys. Goldy and (especially) Arenado are very expensive, assuming Nolan doesn’t opt out.
Disjointed Team
Doesn’t help the budget and the chance to sign a legit FA when they pay a 40 year old catcher $10M.
junkmale
He’s still a quality catcher. All of you were talking about the great value the Braves are getting from d’Arnaud with his 0.1 WAR lol Molina is much better
TmanTheGoat
Imagine actually saying molina is better lol. Nice reminder for you, d’Arnaud was hurt and only played 31 games, and he has been much better than molina since coming back
qbert1996
Part of being better is actually being available Tman.
barkinghumans77
They have $70mm coming off the books
makaio6
Actually they have a good amount of potential starters, most young, for next year. Could be Flaherty, Hudson (both locks), Reyes (potentially), Liberatore, Thompson (both currently at Triple-A. Doesn’t factor in Mikolas who is signed or Waino, who is like to see comeback one more year to allow the young guys some more time in the minors if needed and as a veteran mentor. They also only have probably $90-95m in committed salaries for next year, so they have options.
seamaholic 2
Aside from Flaherty that’s … just a bunch of dudes and a good prospect (Liberatore). If you’re leaning on that you’re not going anywhere. And you have one year with Waino and Yadi, maybe two or three years before Goldy and Nado start seriously declining (actually they already are). Time’s a wastin’ and the Brewers aren’t going anywhere. They have to go big.
Binnington50
Hudson is not just a bunch of dudes. Do some research.
tstats
Coming off the TJ he might be
Binnington50
Only if you’re a Cardinals hater.
SlippinJimmy89
Hudson has a 4.74 FIP over 240 career innings. He’s also coming off Tommy John surgery. That definitely qualifies as “just a dude.” Ah, research.
brodie-bruce
@slippinjimmy89 as much as I would love to argue your point and call you an idiot, but your right until proven otherwise any pitcher coming off tjs should just be considered a “jag or jad”.
amk1920
Arenado is leaving lol. He wants to win and the Cardinals are not.
Deleted Userrr
@amk1920 No he’s not lol. People said the same thing you just said about James Shields and Ian Kennedy when their opt-outs were coming up.
robster
50 year Cardinals fan here.
Reyes has Sandy Koufax Disease (early career). He constantly overthrows so his walk rate is nuts.
Going back to a starter should help him take a few ticks off and thereby harness his stuff better. He will never reach his potential until he learns to do that. He’s got to learn to trust his stuff. He has tremendous movement on his pitches but has yet to realize that you don’t have to hit triple digits to be effective. Perhaps as a starter, he will see the light on that.
Chris 43
I watched him at Palm Beach when he was just starting out, and that was his problem then, too. He’s SO good, though. If he can learn to trust his stuff, he could still be absolutely devastating.
Disjointed Team
Make him a starter. He comes cheap. They can always find an internal option as the closer.
Binnington50
Yes, you’re right, they can find an internal option for a closer. In fact, perhaps they can utilize their closer, Jordan Hicks.
timyanks
as long as wainwright is pitching, he’s the ace, not flaherty. st. louis doesn’t realize that.
DarkSide830
thats a matter of how you describe “ace,” really
Kapler's Coconut Oil
Leader and ace aren’t the same. Neither is the workhorse. Waino is the leader and the workhorse but that’s it. Kind of like Kershaw, where he gets the opening day nod even though Beuhler is objectively better at this point.
CATS44
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush…and Reyes as a closer is a very big bird in the hand.
The other consideration is his injury history. If he moves to the rotation and gets hurt, the Cards have to find a lot more replacement innings than if he gets hurt as a reliever.
eephus11
Maybe a bridge year next season. Pair him with the current broken spoke that is inevitable these days. starting 4 inning or until his mechanics break down. If he stays healthy try a full starter role in ‘23?
kripes-brewers
You bet, make him a starter and he’ll be ready for TJ surgery before the all star break.
Weasel 2
My gosh. If there was a Hall of really tough grinders Wainwright would be first ballot. Too bad he faced so many injuries or he would have at least gained real HoF consideration. (I forgot to check but I think he’s probably around 40 WAR by now which isn’t enough for an SP)
DarkSide830
just a better 2015-2019 and he could be in for sure. i think he still has a shot on the Veterans Ballot.
tstats
If he gets in his plaque better be directly across from molinas
Chris79stl
Where is the option to trade him? Based on his track record I would have traded him at the deadline.
JoeBrady
Chris79stl19 mins ago
Based on his track record I would have traded him at the deadline.
=================================
Assuming that you are talking about Reyes, trading him would’ve been my #1 option as well. He has some decent numbers, but nothing special. The 6.6 BB9 is about as bad as it can get.
I Like Big Bunts
So you’re just gonna ignore the 42 walks in 57 innings?
Deadguy
Yeah, I’m gonna ignore that and give him a chance as a starter, as a starter if he hasn’t found consistency by June then we address it and see what the best options are moving forward? He was drafted as a starter pitched his entire minor league career as a starter then got hurt? He’s still a starter unless he cannot stay healthy or perform in that roll like we saw with Wacha and Martinez? Wacha would have been a good closer
Chris79stl
As a starter he would throw 90 pitches by the 4th inning.
DockEllisDee
Crap, yeah you’re right. I voted starter but forgot he can blow through 25 pitches in an inning easily
creacher
I’m not a Cards fan but I’d hope they just pick a spot for him and leave him. It’s reminding me of the Martinez situation, flipping back and forth between rotation and ‘pen. I know some of the reasons were because of injury and workload, but as a Yankee fan and seeing what we did to Joba, just pick one and let Reyes light it up
StudWinfield
Ahh. The Joba myth. He made all 12 of his starts in ’08 in a row till he got hurt mid season. Came back and pitched out of the pen.Did well in both roles. Spent the all of ’09 as a starter and tired significantly down the stretch struggling to reach the 5th inning. Never started again rest of his career. One could argue that if he was moved to the pen late in ’09 he may have had a more productive career. Joba’s biggest problems were Mo was the closer and then Robertson out pitched him for the setup role every year.
Deadguy
I think this happens with Ponce De Leon as well, true bullpen arm, can’t be a starter.
DonOsbourne
Ponce can’t consistently throw strikes. Period. No matter where you use him, he can’t be counted on because he will walk too many hitters or constantly pitch from behind in the count. His stuff has been intriguing, but I’ve seen all I need to see. I don’t know if it’s a matter of lack of focus, or inconsistent mechanics, but the results are always the same.
holecamels35
I don’t think it would be very smart to start him. You’d have to watch his innings again next season and probably the season after, and that just gets old, especially for a player who already had arm issues. Just let him rip out of the pen and you’ll have that position mostly secure. They seem to find starters with relative ease and I don’t think it’s as dire as it looks. There’s usually a Wade Miley type out there to eat innings and we all know Waino comes back if he pleases.
Ducky Buckin Fent
Personally, I leave him im the ‘pen.
Looks like he’s settled in & is pretty effective there.
One thing I have noticed about the Ray’s pitcher development is that they make the “starter or reliever” decision quickly with their kids. Actually, being TB it’s more like “more innings less innings”.
Now the Yanks – for example – seem to hold out to the bitter end before moving a kid to the bullpen. If Loaisiga pitched for the Ray’s he’d’ve been in their pen for years & would probably have been traded by now.
tstats
A general rule of thumb, hard sinkerballers without MUCH else belong in the pen because sinkers hurt the arm more. Yes I’m aware Dustin May is a starter but he is more than a hard sinker guy
brodie-bruce
Yo ducky long time no talk but IMO Reyes needs to try and give starting a shot. Only reason he was sent in the pen this season is because of his this and labrum surgeries and last years shortened season, and this year they wanted to control his innings. It’s funny tho I made the reverse argument about wanio when he closed out the 06 playoffs and won a ring.
Tdat1979
Reyes is in the same mold as Wade Davis. So-So starter numbers but excellent relief numbers. More than likely he’ll start next year. After a month or two of 4.50 ERA play he’ll wind up in the bullpen where he’ll finish his career.
DarkSide830
rotation would be an injury waiting to happen
KCJ
Yeah they can start the season with him there but be prepared for the 60-day DL stint, if not season ending surgery, within a month
UWPSUPERFAN77
You have to give a guy with that much talent a chance to start. The cardinal should offer it up to him to decide. Your career!
Flyby
I cna only name one pitcher in recent history that went from being a starter to a pretty good closer / elite closer back to solid starter successfully and that was john smoltz. Alex Reyes doesnt strike me as that kind of guy. I could have missed a pitcher but i dont recall. Maybe Seth Lugo, but i think im reaching there.
I have seen many elite relievers / closers pushed back into the starting role and falter and not even become the same reliever they once were.
kenly0
Dempster too
thestevilempire
Reyes has found his niche, don’t mess with it. I would hate to see another Joba Chamberlain situation with Reyes. The rotation isn’t that complicated:
1.) Flaherty
2.) Wainwright
3.) Hudson
4.) Mikolas
5.) Re-sign Happ (he’s been fantastic since they acquired him)
Kim, Libertore, and LeBlanc could be depth.
Disjointed Team
Re-sign Happ? Wow! If you sign him to pitch exclusively against Pittsburgh, then go for it. Otherwise, it would be on the long list of dumb things Mozeliak has done the past five years. It’s already a long list
CujoMarlin
What are Mo’s bad moves this season? These seemingly benign pickups have saved them from a lot of underperformance and injuries. Happ, Lester, Garcia and McFarland have all been positive thus far. I am not blind to other bad moves by Mo over time, but pretty nice work this year. Interested how others see these moves.
wu tang killa beez
He should stay right where he is, everytime they started him he ended up on the IL real quick
WillieMaysHayes24
It’s a tough choice tbh. He’s gotten pretty good results out of the bullpen, but he does have the stuff to be an effective starter. His health is the biggest question mark, followed by his control. Would he be able to go deep enough into games to justify him starting?:
mkeyankee
Cards are not good enough to pass the Brewers 3 aces in 2022. Tough spot to be in for this club. They should look to rebuild.
GriffeyJrFan
He walks too many hitters to be effective as a starter. If his control improves, then a starter. If not he should stay in the pen
Adolpho67
Reyes should be left in the pen! His history shows that he is fragile when exposed to a workload of a starter. Cards spent better part of the last 5 years trying everything to get him on the mound and now thinking about him as a starter again?
Give Waino a lifetime contract & leave Reyes in the pen!
Texas Outlaw
Is Wainwright a HOF? I would maybe yes if he gets to 200 wins… but I see him finishing with 180 to 185 tops. Thoughts?
rdf922
Wins don’t matter anymore for starters.
Waino is a Cardinal HoFer but won’t make Cooperstown.
Disjointed Team
I was wondering when this nonsense would start making the rounds through STL. Wainwright a HOF? There’s not enough space on this page to tell you all the reasons why he’s NOT.
CujoMarlin
There is plenty of room. Not enough counting stats due to a lot of starts lost to injury in his career and struggles for a few years. Hell of a pitcher and competitor either way.
Cosmo2
Injuries killed his shot. He was on track though.
Rsox
If I’m the Cardinals i keep Reyes in the Closer role. He’s done a fine job of it this season after years of waiting for him to be healthy.
Even if the Cards decline Martinez’ option and Kim leaves, they still have Flaherty, Hudson and Mikolas. Wainwright will probably be back, they could afford to spend on an expensive pitcher if they want to (a Max Scherzer homecoming perhaps?, maybe Grienke?). And have a bunch of young arms they could try
brodie-bruce
@rsox there is no question on cmarts option it’s being declined, and IMO good let some other team deal with that headache. As much as I love flaherty and Hudson, one is coming off tjs (Hudson) and the other just went on the il for shoulder issues so IMO you can’t count on either of them. I will agree mad max and grienke would be good fits but for the years there going to want would it really. With the cards d I think some good pitch to contact guys would be the best fit and we can upgrade at ss.
Cosmo2
Bullpen. Don’t Joba Chamberlain him.
mrmackey
But maybe they’d be Johan Santanta’ing him. Or David Wells’ing him.
Cosmo2
Heh. Names as verbs are fun.
gbs42
Wainwright isn’t 40 until Tuesday!
Disjointed Team
Trade Reyes while he still has value. Let the next team decide what to do with him.
TomahawkChop
He’s a good closer and cheap. You don’t screw with what works in this case when you add that in with his extensive injury history.
DonOsbourne
Reyes is having a terrible August. I think he has hit a wall. For me that says starting is not a good option. They should shut him down now before he hurts himself again and renders this entire conversation moot.