The Twins announced this evening they’ve optioned corner outfielder Trevor Larnach to Triple-A St. Paul. Utilityman Nick Gordon has been recalled to take his place on the active roster.
Minnesota selected Larnach to the big leagues in early May. A 2018 first-round pick, Larnach rose rather quickly through the minors with huge performances up through Double-A. Along the way, he cemented himself as one of the Twins’ most promising prospects — and indeed, as one of the top farmhands in the sport. Entering the year, Baseball America placed Larnach inside the game’s top 40 minor league talents.
The hope was that Larnach and/or fellow top prospect Alex Kirilloff would hit the ground running to cement themselves as potential everyday options alongside Byron Buxton and Max Kepler in the Minnesota outfield. Neither player has yet tapped into their considerable offensive upside, though. Kirilloff hit .251/.299/.423 over 231 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending wrist injury. Larnach has stayed healthy, but he’s hit at a below-average level (.223/.322/.350) for the first time in his professional career. He started the season well, but Larnach’s been mired in a dreadful slump of late, with just two multi-hit games since July 5.
To his credit, Larnach has continued to show plenty of patience at the plate this season, as he did throughout his minor league tenure. The 24-year-old has walked in a quality 10.3% of his plate appearances, swinging at a lower-than-average 28% of pitches outside the strike zone while attacking pitches in the zone at a near average rate. While Larnach hasn’t chased much, he’s simply made too little contact when he has swung. His 62.9% contact rate is the third-lowest mark (above only Mike Zunino’s and Javier Báez’s) among the 228 hitters with 250+ plate appearances this season. That’s led to a massive 34.6% strikeout rate that’s fourth-highest (lower only than Zunino’s, Bobby Dalbec’s and Báez’s) in that group.
While Zunino and Báez have offset their huge strikeout totals with huge power and plus defense, Larnach hasn’t offered that sort of complementary production. He’s always been seen as a bat-first prospect, so the lack of defensive value isn’t a surprise. But Larnach has hit just seven home runs in 301 plate appearances and has a below-average .127 isolated power (slugging minus batting average).
He’s hit the ball solidly, but it hasn’t been the elite contact quality necessary to succeed with a strikeout rate at its current level. According to Statcast, Larnach has made hard contact (defined as an exit velocity of 95 MPH or higher) on 41.1% of his batted balls. That’s above the 35.5% league average, but it’s not at the level of Zunino (48.9%) or Báez (45.6%). Similarly, Larnach’s average exit velocity and barrel rate are right around the 60th percentiles. Zunino has an 89th percentile average exit velocity and a 100th percentile barrel rate, while Báez sits in the 72nd and 86th percentiles in those respective metrics.
More simply put, hitters with that kind of swing-and-miss need to be among the best in the league at driving the ball when they do make contact. Larnach has been above-average but not elite in that regard.
Obviously, Larnach’s first crack at the majors hasn’t gone as he or the organization would’ve hoped. That said, it’s much too early to write off the possibility of him figuring things out. He’s a career .306/.384/.473 hitter in the minors, where his strikeout rate is a far more manageable 21.8%. And he was making the jump to the majors this year with essentially no Triple-A experience. Last year’s canceled minor league season — coupled with the delayed start to the 2021 minors campaign — has kept Larnach to all of three career games at that level.
He’ll head to St. Paul for what’ll presumably be a more extended Triple-A run. If he performs at anything close to his level up through Double-A, he figures to get another look in the big leagues at some point soon. The Twins are playing out the stretch on a disappointing season, and they’re certainly holding out hope Larnach can contribute to a 2022 team they’re expecting to compete in the AL Central.
Twins just need to rebuild. I don’t see them catching the White Sox, rising Tigers and maybe even Royals or Indians next year
Maybe even a retool would work but they need to think more about the future
I still think they have one more year before they rebuild. Maeda, Kepler, Polanco, Donaldson all reach FA after 2023. Sano and Buxton after next season. If its a repeat of 2021 in 2022, I can see them selling those guys in a full rebuild.
They have a two-year window, possibly longer. Of course, if they tank against next year, then all bets are off and they may indeed go for a full rebuild.
Went to a twins game this year for the 1st time what a great stadium and just overall atmosphere I was impressed – hope the twins can compete again soon it’s an underestimated baseball market IMO
They should have traded Sano for a bag of used balls.
Or just the bag…
Rough year for Larnach, but hopefully he can figure things out at AAA. Without any defensive value, he’s going to need to rake to stay in MLB.
The hole in Larnach’s swing should of been fixed before any call up.For a lefty to have that problem to this degree is unusual,another clear example the grade on prospects is completely flawed.
1) The Twins needed an OF and Larnach was chosen because he had raked in the minors through 2019 due to his top prospect status.
2) He started out well and then was struggling over the past month or so.
3) The Twins hoped he could adjust and figure it out. He didn’t.
4) By your suggestion, tons of minor leaguers would never make it out of the minors if they were required to fix the holes in their swings first.
5) Larnach still has time to live up to his top prospect status .He’s had 300 PA in the majors, give him time.
Nothing worse than seeing a player, who did major damage to your favorite team (Det), be sent down because he only did those things when playing them! I watched him in a couple games against other teams and immediately thought he as not a major league OF, and then watched him play gold glove like against Detroit. Hope he starts beating up some other team(s) when he returns.
With all due respect, is Nick Gordon relevant to this transaction at all? There are 8 paragraphs on Larnach and literally nothing on Gordon beyond his name and role. I get that Larnach is a top prospect and has spent the majority of the season in the majors and thus is more noteworthy, but it’s not good writing to completely ignore the other half of the swap, even if Gordon is an up-and-down utility guy. I mean, not even a single one of Gordon’s stats was mentioned!
It’s very Gordon-Strange they didn’t mention him…
Nick Gordon could be part of the Twins plans if the can just commit to giving him an extended chance – don’t think anyone seen enough of Gordon to completely decide if he has a part on future twins teams or not think Dee is the only one doing the Strange- Gordon thing ?
I don’t know what happened to the Twins this season. They were so much better than their record indicates.
I don’t think they need to rebuild because this IS what they rebuilt into. Perhaps the issues is that both the Twins and the Royals rebuilt their teams around position players without addressing pitching. The Twins have a CL and some bullpen pieces. The Royals have even less.