It’s a new era for the Washington Nationals. In a major deadline selloff in July, the club traded Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Yan Gomes, Jon Lester, Daniel Hudson, Brad Hand and Josh Harrison. Anyone who was healthy and productive was shipped out of town. Well, almost anyone. Juan Soto stayed.
Even though the team is clearly stripping things down for the short-term, it always made sense to hang onto an incredible talent like Soto since he still has three years of team control remaining after 2021. The club targeted MLB-ready prospects in their deadline deals such as Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz, specifically to get back into contention while Soto is still on the club. But why not keep him around past 2024 and get rid of that ticking clock scenario?
Back in August, Soto said he wanted to go year by year, which would seem to indicate he’s not terribly motivated to put pen to paper. After all, he’s already banked some money, having reached Super Two status last offseason. He and the club avoided arbitration and agreed to a salary of $8.5MM for this season. But players have often made similar statements and still gone on to sign extensions when the numbers were big enough. For example, Mookie Betts and Francisco Lindor had extension rumors swirling around them for years, rumors that they consistently shrugged off until they finally got what they wanted. In both cases, they were just one season away from free agency.
So, what would it take to lock up someone like Soto and keep him away from the open market? Let’s look at some numbers. Soto is going to finish this season with three years and 134 days’ service time. The largest extension ever given out for a player between three and four years’ service time is Freddie Freeman’s eight-year, $135MM contract, signed at the start of the 2014 season. But Soto now has more earning power than Freeman did then. First of all, Freeman didn’t reach Super Two status as Soto did. Soto has also accomplished much more in his career so far, compared to Freeman at that time. In 471 games up to that point, Freddie had a career slash of .285/.358/.466 for a wRC+ of 127 and 7.1 fWAR. In 464 games, Soto’s career slash is .301/.432/.550, for a wRC+ of 156 and 17.7 fWAR.
Fernando Tatis Jr. makes for a closer comparison, though with a slightly smaller track record. When he signed his extension in February of this year, he had two years’ service time, with one of those years being the shortened 2020 season. Through 143 games, he had a line of .301/.374/.582, for a wRC+ of 150 and 6.6 fWAR. It took 14 years and $340MM to get his signature. That’s an average annual value of over $24MM.
Mookie Betts also makes for an interesting comparison, but unlike Tatis, he was much closer to free agency than Soto at the time of his extension. He had between five and six years’ service time and was just one year away from hitting the open market. In the three years leading up to that contract, Betts played in 439 games, slashed .299/.389/.535, for a wRC+ of 140 and 22.4 fWAR. His extension was 12 years, $365MM, average annual value of just over $30MM, the largest extension ever given out in MLB history.
Soto’s skill level is very similar to both Tatis and Betts, but he falls between the two when it comes to service time and proximity to free agency. Therefore, it seems fair to think that he could reasonably ask for an average annual value in between the two, where his salary escalates over his remaining arbitration years and into the free agent years. (Tatis’s contract for instance, escalates from $1MM in 2021 to $5MM in 2022, $7MM in 2023, $11MM in 2024, $20MM apiece in 2025 and 2026, $25MM in 2027 and 2028 and then settles at $36MM for each of the last six years of the deal.)
If Soto could get a contract of 14 years, just as Tatis did, that would take him into his age-36 season. That’s not unreasonable, given that other recent extensions for superstars have gone to a similar range. Betts’ extension goes to his age-39 season, Mike Trout’s to his age-38 season, Lindor to age-37 and Tatis to age-35. If that contract had an average annual value of $28.6MM, that would eclipse $400MM, nudging over a symbolic barrier and surpassing Mookie Betts for the largest extension in history.
That’s a lot of money, and probably too much money for the Nationals, without some creative manoeuvring to go along with it. They have Stephen Strasburg’s contract on the books through 2026, paying him $35MM in each of the next five years. There’s also Patrick Corbin’s deal, which pays him $23MM next year, $24MM in 2023 and $35MM in 2024. Add on that theoretical Soto money and they’re in the range of $100MM to just three players in 2024.
That’s probably too rich for a club that’s never had a payroll higher than about $205MM, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. But then again, Soto’s contract figures to be quite high by 2024 anyway. Mookie Betts used the arbitration process to get his salary as high as $27MM in his final year of control, and he wasn’t even a Super Two player. So, extension or not, the club is still facing a scenario where Strasburg, Corbin and Soto take up about half the budget in 2024.
The question then is if they want to commit to a Soto-Strasburg duo earning around $70MM for 2025 and 2026, with Soto being the primary line item for about a decade after that. If the answer to that is yes, then baseball could have its first 400-million-dollar man.
Future Met
If Soto said he wants to go year to year for now, let’s take him at his word and not speculate on a potential contract signed today
I agree. Probably not going to save much money, if any, by locking him up early unless he wants to do something like Trout and do a 6 year deal.
Half of sports writing is speculation.
The other half is top ten lists and clickbait.
Half? 90% plus.
You are literally commenting on a website called “MLB Trade Rumors”, and then asking them not to speculate? What do you think we do here my man?
Perhaps we could speculate on a player who hasn’t shot the notion down of signing an extension? You could literally throw out any name. Bo Bichette. There’s one.
Hahahaha exactly!
Perhaps you could refer to the provided list of players who also claimed they wanted to test free agency but instead, contrary to their word, signed extensions.
bucsfan0004,
How’s about Lars Nootbaar?
I like what appears to be the beginning of a trend to get back to one team player careers. I like the loyalty by both sides.
I absolutely love it! Great for fans and community too!
Nats let Turner get away. You don’t trade away that type of talent, but I guess when you sign guys like Strasburg and Corbin to terrible contracts, you reap what you sow. Soto won’t be a Nat for much longer either.
Well, he has 3 more years of team control and there is no trade on the planet that will match his value at his age so he will at least be a Nat until July 2024.
Actually it was highly intelligent. They sold everything, tanked completely, and ended up with the 5th pick
The Nationals have almost the same roster heading into the offseason that they’d have had anyway. Plus the trade returns and a better draft position. Everyone but Turner was a free agent anyway. As to dealing Turner, they’re looking ahead at a deep FA market at SS if they want to go that route.
Almost the same roster? Cmon man, that’s laughable. They subtracted their best SP and their best position player, who was under contract for next year
Stras+Corbin is going to cost the National fans Mad Max, Turner and possibly Soto. Wow
“that they’d have had anyway”
Other than Turner, they have a better roster next year than they would have had if they had not made those trade. Finish reading sentences before you criticize people.
I can read thanks. Before the deadline, I had zero qualms that max was re-signing in Washington. Maybe they pull the rare trade then re-sign, but really, he’s gone. I consider that part of the equation
Gray is a nice young pitcher but he’s a #3 at best. Ruiz may be a beast but he’s also a 21 year old catcher. Expecting him to magically be the player he could one day be is folly
And nice job pushing Turner to the side. He just won the batting title and can play elite defense at multiple middle infield positions. That’s exactly the guy you want in front of Soto. Who’s replacing that production? Unless they spend another 200M+ on one of the big shortstops?
No Corbin, no 2019 World Series. I will eat the bad contract, it was worth it, to win it all, which is the reason we play the games.
If the Nats can’t afford a $28.6MM AAV for Soto, then they probably should trade him now.
The Nats definitely aren’t getting the “Acuna special” with Soto and i expect him to want to test free agency when the time comes. The Nationals haven’t really been into locking up players longterm with the exceptions. of Ryan Zimmerman and Strasburg. Even going all the way back to their Expos days very few players stayed beyond the end of their service time
Soto wants to see how the next 3 yrs pan out with some of the players they got back. Smart of him. Why commit to a long term deal now? He even knows he’s going to get paid.
If he does become a free agent look for the Yankees to get their first $400mm man
yankee fans think you’re going to sign everyone. maybe try making the postseason with your mammoth payroll first, rather than getting owned by a division rival with a third of said payroll
I don’t mean to shock you, @…noDH.
But: the Yanks played in the postseason this year, the last 5 in a row, & 21 of the last 24. Sincerely hope this information does not ruin your Sunday there, bud.
enjoy the postseason from your couch. how many years since your last title? cant even buy one properly, like the dodgers. also noticed how you have nothing to say about being owned by the rays, who laugh at your payroll and results
Watching “the postseason from my couch” is not really my style, bro.
For one I’m a pretty shallow fan. When the Yanks are done – well – so am I. I’ve watched 2 or 3 innings since the play-in game. Same with the Giants in football.
& October is the best month for grouse & mixed bag waterfowl hunting. & the Coho & Pinks run up by my hunting shack. So. I do other stuff instead.
Since you may struggle with some basic math stuff: it has been a “whopping” 12 years. Crazy that us Yankee fans consider that to be some kind of eternity, uh?
I’ve had a great Sunday thus far.
Hope yours is the same there, bud.
A lot of us are “shallow fans”. Baseball is primarily a regional sport.
Tell that to Cole, about whom everyone said the same; but guess what? Yankees signed him! You were probably one of those saying there’s no way he will cut his hair, he’s going west, etc. Wrong! Time will tell – If the Yankees want him, they’ll get him. Don’t be jealous, it’s unbecoming.
@Ducky It’s tough watching the playoffs when your team gets eliminated from them. I hate the 1-game playoff. It’s brutal to end an entire season on 1 bad game. I’m with you there. If I was a Yankees fan, I would be taking a break right now. Unfortunately, I’ve been watching a lot of playoff baseball for the last decade because my team hasn’t even made the playoffs. So there’s no real heartbreak.
I think a big part of it is that the season is 162 games, @Hayes. That’s a commitment! & when it ends, it always seems so…jarring to me. *Especially* losing the play-in game.
I’m primarily watching football or the fights as opposed to baseball these days. But, man, it’s not even Halloween & the Jints season is on life support. Iggles off to a rough start too, uh?
Good thing we have the hot stove, man.
Off topic: I’ve thoroughly enjoyed our interactions this season. Hat tip for being a classy dude.
“Off topic: I’ve thoroughly enjoyed our interactions this season. Hat tip for being a classy dude.”
Likewise, Ducky. You’ve given me a lot of laughs on these boards. Quite frankly, anyone who’s endured my posts and rants deserves an award.
Nah. Yankee fans don’t think they’ll sign everyone, but they do know their team has the resources to sign pretty much any player they target. Most of the time they pass, even on the top players. Believe it or not (but you can look it up!), their payroll hasn’t budged much in 16 years, so they do operate within a budget.
Also, Yankee “down” years are still successful. Just higher expectations.
Beyond that, totally agree with your name. If MLB was invented today, they’d simply have an eight-man lineup. No DH and no pitcher hitting.
Not sure if you heard but George steinbrenner has passed away. The days of loading up and overpaying as many high priced free agents has ended. Getting tired of everyday reading “the Yankees will overpay him a billion dollars” when that ended years ago.
He’s very different. Top-tier player and he will be very young. He’s one of maybe 5 players like that.
Soto won’t sign an extension, the Nat’s suck, just do your year to year that you want to do, than come to the Mets.
so the nats suck, but he’ll go to the mutts? lol
Why is a lifetime extension the only type that’s explored in this piece? It seems a shorter extension similar to the one Trout first signed that allows Soto to become a FA at age 29 would benefit both the team (greater control) and Soto (guaranteed life changing money).
I feel Soto’s skillset will age very well. He’s such an advanced hitter with a fantastic approach at the plate. He had a 16% walk rate in his age-19 season, and that’s only increased as he’s grown and matured. This year, he had a 22.2% BB%. His strikeouts have moved in the right direction as well. Even once he slows down physically, he’d be a fantatsic DH/LF.
coolstorybra
*opens Scrooge McDuck’s vault*
Gotta admit it was cool to see Soto at Dodger Stadium showing love for Scherzer and Turner. With Bauer’s contract possibly…fades off into LaLa land.
The Yankees should of signed another former National player. Harper wanted to be a Yankee but decided to trade for Stanton the year before. Ohtani refusing Yankees money forced the Yankees to overreact and trade for Stanton. The Yankees are still regretting that choice even if they refuse to admit it today
You’re correct. That said, if the Angels give Ohtani a long extention, they will have similar regrets.
hall not only did Soto show up but he “participated” in the after game celebration. Soto to the Dodgers. Mookie to Center.
Soto signs for something like the GDP of Tonga
Poor comps in this article. Betts, Freeman, and Tatis are inferior to Soto – an OPB beast. Most importantly, none of these “comps” are represented by Scott Boras. The only logical comp is Bryce Harper. IMO, Soto is the best player in MLB. Any extension from the Nats will likely be a year longer and higher AAV than Harper’s contract from the Phillies. If the Nats disagree, then get what you can for him now. Anything else would be stupid.
I agree. Soto is going to market as best player in baseball. See where teams are at in 3 years. Hard to speculate now.
Best hitter, at least.
Rays or Dodgers only two real trade spots for Soto
I understand the Rays but do the Dodgers have any top prospects left
Valid. Ruiz, Gray, Verdugo and Liz have been replaced by Bruns, Busch, Pepiot and Cartaya and Pages. Instead of banging down the door to LA, most of these guys are at AA or lower and still hold that can’t miss status.
Lux, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin get the phone started at least, yes. It would basically have to take mlb talent though.
Los Angeles Dodgers named Miguel Vargas the 2021 Branch Rickey Minor League Player of the Year, and Hyun-il Choi as the organization’s 2021 Pitcher of the Year. Add those two to the list of minor league talent.
Mets trade Ginn, Mauricio, Baty, David Peterson, JD Davis, and Dom Smith for Juan Soto and then offer Juan soto a 10 year 380 extentsion
@Metsin7: And then you woke up.
NY fans (mutts and yanks alike) are the worst. think they’re getting everyone. dodgers close behind
8Man the Dodgers do get just about “everyone” they want. Scherzer, Betts, Turner and Bauer as recent examples (that didn’t work, but not for on field performance).
My thinking is that Seager is given a QO and if he leaves he leaves, Trea Turner back to SS and Lux or Muncy at second. Taylor is hopefully retained.
8Man: Where will he go; what’s your prediction?
bham Mersin7 sounds like Mets22.
You can’t overwhelm a team with an overdose of quantity. They’ll want quality.
I can’t imagine any package the Mets could put together to even get the Nats to answer the phone and he will not accept that contract. If he was being shopped teams would empty their farms and roster with superior package that isn’t headlined by jd davis.
Soto is a player in another league… in an age where players strike out twice as much as they walk, he had 145 walks to 93 strike outs! .400 OBP every year in the majors. And… he’s 22 years old. UNREAL!!!
LOL
Funny, I thought this article was about Soto, not the Mets.
I dunno what’s worse. The delusional Met fans or those obsessed with hating the team.
It’s the first and it’s not hard
Few are as delusional as you, McCourt.
Tatis is a bad comp. Soto is already making decent money in arbitration. Tatis’s first 3 years are less than Soto’s current salary.
It’s taking a helluva lot more than a 28M aav to sign Soto to a mega deal. Stars are getting 36M a year for their FA years. He’s going to aim to top that
What is the benefit to signing him now? He wants insane money, period. If you thought he’d give you a discount, that’s one thing. Also, the second you sign him to a huge deal he no longer has as much trade value.
The intro to this article is amazing
Soto going to make an 300-400 million contract, but if he’s smart he’ll take the betts move and make more money in arbitration then collect in free agency to the highest bidder.
This whole other making division is stupid , it’s east vs west top 5 records from each league makes the postseason this whole divisional play is stupid when you have teams with a higher record in the wild card spot play against a division winner who’s record shows they belong lower.