The Orioles lost 110 games in 2021, the third time in the past four seasons with a sub-.400 winning percentage. It’s been five seasons since the Orioles last made the postseason, and the odds are stacked against them in the AL East.
Guaranteed Contracts
- None
- 2022 commitments: $0MM
- Total long-term commitments: $0MM
Projected Salaries For Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Trey Mancini, 1B/OF: $7.9MM
- Anthony Santander, OF: $3.7MM
- John Means, LHP: $3.1MM
- Jorge Lopez, RHP: $1.5MM
- Paul Fry, LHP: $1.1MM
- Tanner Scott, LHP: $1.1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Lopez
Option Decisions
- None
Free Agents
Take a look at the guaranteed contracts section above and that’s about all you need to know about the state of the Baltimore Orioles. The good news is that they no longer have any onerous contracts on the books, but no amount of frugality will turn you into a rich man. At some point, the Orioles are going to need to start putting some long-term building blocks in place if they want to compete in the AL East.
The fact is, before the 2021 season even started, we pretty much knew what the two biggest stories of the year would be for these Orioles. Trey Mancini’s return was going to galvanize the fanbase and give the Baltimore faithful a real feel-good story to follow, and Adley Rutschman would continue his march towards the Major Leagues. Both narratives played about almost exactly as expected — and that’s not to diminish Mancini’s comeback, which was genuinely heartwarming, or Rutschman’s impressive march towards Camden Yards.
Mancini put on a show in the Home Run Derby and played in 147 games during the regular season. He hit .255/.326/.432 with 21 home runs in 616 plate appearances, good for just 0.8 rWAR overall. It was a good, albeit not great return to action for Mancini, who nevertheless gave fans in Baltimore something to cheer about.
Rutschman took another giant steps towards becoming the face of the franchise. He hit .271/.392/.508 in 80 games with Double-A Bowie before earning his promotion to Triple-A, where he slashed .312/.405/.490 across 185 plate appearances. If Rutschman isn’t in the Major Leagues in 2022, it’s because something went seriously wrong with the CBA negotiations and nobody is playing baseball. He’s ready.
Beyond those narratives, there was a third story that somewhat unexpectedly took over headlines in Baltimore this season: the emergence of Cedric Mullins. The 26-year-old broke out in a major way, posting MVP-caliber numbers, making his first All-Star game and earning his first Silver Slugger Award. He posted a 5.7 rWAR season while slashing .291/.360/.518, hitting 30 bombs and stealing 30 bases to be the Majors only 30-30 player. Those of us who remember Mullins from a dismal 22-game stint back in 2019 need to seriously re-calibrate expectations for Baltimore’s newest star.
The rest of the roster remains in serious flux, especially on the pitching side, where John Means continues to be their undisputed top starter. Means had a good year, logging 146 2/3 innings in 26 starts with a 3.62 ERA. At 28 years old, he may not seem like the ideal building block for the rotation, but he is still under team control for three more seasons, which is why the team hasn’t seriously explored trading Means up to this point.
Again, however, we must look to the minor leagues to see the most impactful developments for Baltimore. Grayson Rodriguez looks like an ace in the making, and like Rutschman, he’s nearing Major League readiness. Rodriguez made 18 starts in Double-A, logging 79 2/3 innings with a stellar 2.60 ERA/2.73 FIP. The towering 6’5″ right-hander is a significant talent, and he could be pitching in Baltimore by next summer.
Southpaw D.L. Hall could join him there soon. Hall was just added to the 40-man roster. He made just seven starts in Double-A but nevertheless posted a promising 3.33 ERA in those 31 2/3 innings. He also put up a 3.46 ERA/3.22 FIP over 80 2/3 innings in High-A. Nothing is a sure thing in the prospect world, but in Rodriguez and Hall, the O’s have a pretty strong pair of rotation arms that are pretty close to kicking Baltimore’s rebuild into high gear.
Given how close Baltimore’s highest profile prospects are to the Majors, it’s fair to wonder if this might be the winter when GM Mike Elias finally make a significant play for a free agent. They aren’t ready to compete, but they also might not be quite as far from the types of pre-contender free agency deals that we’ve seen for veterans like Jayson Werth and Manny Machado.
There’s certainly some room on the roster (and obviously on the payroll) to add a veteran or two. They’re fairly well stocked in the outfield where Mullins was flanked by Anthony Santander and Austin Hays. Whichever of Mancini and Ryan Mountcastle aren’t playing first base can also spend time in the grass, though they’re both better suited in a designated hitter role. Hays had a bit of a breakout 3.1 rWAR season, though Santander took a step back after a solid 2020. Santander and Hays are under team control for three and four more years respectively, so they are likely to continue to log a starter’s workload in the grass. That said, Mancini, Mountcastle, Santander, and Hays may be a perfect barbershop quartet, but the O’s could easily split up the timeshare for left, right, first, and DH more than four ways, should Elias find a free agent at the right price.
There’s room for another character in the outfield carousel, but if Elias is to inject some talent into this lineup, he’s most likely to do so in the infield. As of today, Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urias, and Kelvin Gutierrez rank as the incumbents next to Mountcastle in the infield. Mountcastle, at 24 and a longtime top prospect, probably has the longest leash of the four after slashing a palatable .255/.309/.487 with 33 home runs and 89 RBIs in 586 plate appearances. He has now been 16 percent better than average with the stick by measure of wRC+ in 726 career plate appearances in the Majors. That’s a promising chunk of action for Mountcastle, though the bar will be set high since he does not add much value with his glove.
Mateo, Urias, and Gutierrez are more place holders than long-term pieces. Mateo is the youngest, and he will turn 27 in June of next season. Urias as been the most productive of the bunch, as the 27-year-old has hit an impressive .286/.365/.425 in 323 plate appearances over two seasons since being claimed off waivers from the Cardinals.
Urias should feel secure in his roster spot, but his ability to move around the infield makes the right-handed hitter a pretty ideal fit as a fringe starter/utility type. That might be the ceiling for Mateo and Richie Martin, Urias’ theoretical backup at short, who hasn’t shown enough bat to stick it in the Majors (.214/.343/.348 in 134 plate appearance in the minors last year).
They can’t all be tenth men, however, which is where a free agent or two could make sense for Baltimore. Their prospect lists aren’t real deep in terms of infielders nearing the Majors, outside of Jahmai Jones, a former Angels’ prospect acquired last February for Alex Cobb. Jones hit alright in the minors this season (.251/.343/.445), but the numbers aren’t so flashy as to block the acquisition of a potential free agent. They recently added Lucius Fox from the Royals to join this pool of potential infielders.
Of course, this is all speculation, as Elias has yet to show a willingness to spend in free agency since taking over in November 2018. To his credit, there has been little reason to spend on a team destined for the AL East basement. Given that they are a near certainty to finish in the basement again in 2022, it may be a year or two early for Elias to open up the pocketbook.
Elias’ challenge, after all, is unique for a rebuilding given the incline of the uphill climb they face in their division. The Red Sox nearly made the World Series, the Blue Jays are just beginning an era of presumed prosperity, the Rays have a farm system that should keep them in contention for the next half decade, and the Yankees’ haven’t had a losing season since Derek Jeter’s draft year. In that climate, the Orioles aren’t likely to luck into a playoff spot.
Still, if Mullins’ breakout is real and Rutschman has the type of 2022 that dreams are made of, the Birds will have long-term answers at the two toughest positions to fill. The third position on that list – shortstop – happens to have a robust collection of talent available in free agency this season. I know, it’s not super likely that the Orioles will reel in Carlos Correa or Corey Seager, but they could be players at the tail end of that market, especially if the jobs dry up elsewhere and someone like Javier Baez begins to consider a short-term make-good kind of offer. Speculatively speaking, there’s also a potentially robust secondary market on the trade block, should they want to make a move for someone like Paul DeJong, a spiritual successor for J.J. Hardy whose contract should make him an easy get in terms of the talent return.
Elias could also look to the hot corner, though there aren’t as many appealing options after Kris Bryant and Chris Taylor. The same can be said for second base. At the very least, Baltimore could look to make the type of addition they’ve made in recent seasons, bringing in a veteran on a short-term deal in the mold of Freddy Galvis, keeping one eye on flipping them at the deadline. Jose Iglesias, Cesar Hernandez, Josh Harrison, Leury Garcia, Jonathan Villar, Matt Duffy, or Marwin Gonzalez might merit consideration for that kind of deal. Former Mariner Shed Long is a textbook target as a former top prospect who is still relatively young at 26 years old.
Galvis’ one-year, $1.5MM deal was the only Major League contract Elias handed out last offseason, and until we see otherwise, that’s probably the level of dealing that we can expect from Elias.
There’s even less likely to be a splashy free agent pitcher making his new home in Baltimore, though the O’s ought to at least explore the middle of the market. One of Elias’ trademarks in recent seasons has been acquiring enough low-cost, quad-A-type arms to keep their farmhands fresh. He hasn’t wanted to rush any of their pitching prospects through the system, and that means having enough talent on hand to survive a full 162-game season.
Players like Bruce Zimmermann, Zac Lowther, Dean Kremer, and Keegan Akin give the Orioles options for the rotation, but only Means has a rotation spot on lockdown. The others not only could be bumped from the rotation, but they have options remaining as well. Paul Fry, Dillon Tate, Rule 5 pick Tyler Wells, southpaw Tanner Scott and breakout righty Cole Sulser did enough to earn bullpen seats next year, but there’s definitely room for an addition or two beyond that group.
Frankly, Elias has already been relatively busy this winter. He allowed Hunter Harvey to be claimed off waivers while re-signing Marcos Diplan and Spenser Watkins on minor league deals. Elias and manager Brandon Hyde also brought in a pair of hitting coaches to bring some new voices into the clubhouse.
The Orioles aren’t breaking any doors down yet to get out of the AL East basement, but there is intrigue at the top of Baltimore’s roster for the first time in years. Rutschman is the type of two-way talent that can change the course of a franchise, but when he arrives, the ticking clock starts, too.
Check out the rest of MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series here.
No
Give it a few decades….
I think Mounty is better than just “palatable”. He’s only 24 and already putting up the 4th-highest SLG in the league for first basemen. That’s while playing in the toughest division in MLB with virtually no protection in the lineup. If he can learn to take more walks, he could become an elite power hitter.
His defense is terrible and he was only worth .9 WAR. Not the risen Savior
RMC is Ok defensively at 1B, in real life.
One rule they could put in place is a after so two years you lose draft position if you aren’t improving. You tank two years and the 3rd you lose more games than the last year welp you just cost yourself 5 draft spots.
This could also work for competitive teams. If you slash payroll when you had a 87 win team like the A’s say and you lose 10 more games well that’s 5 draft spots. This penalty only occurs if the team slashes payroll fans will enjoy this because they’re not smart enough to realize spending doesn’t equal winning. Teams can however slash payroll and if they stay competitive there’s no penalty.
Oy
So you have a bunch of small to mid market teams running the treadmill of mediocrity because they can’t build farm systems with money and you have just cut off their ability to do so through the draft.
S#itty idea.
Of the 8 ballparks I’ve visited, Camden is the best place to watch a game.
Every time I go to Camden to see the Red Sox play, there are more Sox fans than Orioles fans in the stadium.
Love San Diego, personally. Been going to Camden Yards a long time.
So, I lived in San Diego when they played at the “Murph”. I’ve never been to Petco.
After the new YS was built it was a cheaper/more enjoyable experience shooting down to Baltimore and stay the night to catch an O’s-Yanks game. Sadly it takes just as long to get home from a trip to Camden the next day as it does fighting traffic at YS after a game.
How that kid from Arkansas doing? I think they recently drafted him? Lefty hitter
I don’t think he’s played yet. Had some sort of heart issue
Heston Kjerstad. He missed the whole year, but should be ready to go in 2022.
No.
Of they could somehow relocate to the NL East or AL Central, then I could get excited about them, but I just don’t see how they can compete in the top heavy AL East. For the Orioles to rise other teams need to fall. Which other team do people think will fall past the Otioles?
Well put
Baltimore would still finish 6th in the NL East.
Baltimore would finish 2nd in the AL Central.
If you work at a job with no chance of promotion, then it is called a dead-end job. If you are a fan of a team that has no realistic chance of winning a ring, does that make it dead-end fandom?
What if being an Os fan my entire life is an IQ test I’m willfully failing?
Your team was good just 5 years ago, other fans have it worse.
Good =/= Great
The Orioles just have to start beating their rivals again, which they managed to do for a little while during the Buck Showalter years. People forget the O’s were in the ALCS in 2014. And this was while they had the worst owner in baseball. So of course it’s possible for the O’s to rise to the top again. The Yankees are not dominant anymore and the Red Sox frequently have bad seasons, but even when the Yankees were dominant in the 1970s and 1990s the O’s were right there competing with them. I don’t see why people say the AL East is still the best division when it barely is — if it even still is. Frankly, any team can compete in the AL East if the Rays can.
Short answer is no. Nowhere close.
But, they absolutely should be monitoring the free agent market closely and should be looking to sign literally anyone who, for whatever reason, ends up being a relative bargain.
Whether those players end up as long or medium term answers or are merely flipped mid-season, they should at least be building enough of a foundation so that 70 wins is reasonable.
Unless I’m missing something, John Means logged neither 181 innings nor made 31 starts.
This entire article was written in some bizarro universe where lines like, “a spiritual successor for J.J. Hardy” make any freaking sense. This smells like something written solely to hit a word count to fill a page. Ugh.
The Yankees last losing season was 1993. Jeter made his debut in 1995. Get basic facts correct.
Sorry fat fingers 1992.
It said Jeter’s draft year.
Yankers last losing season was 1992, the same year Jetes was drafted. You need better reading comprehension AND to get the facts straight. Zencka wrote the facts, not you.
After a certain point, you run out of things to write about a perennially awful club. This must’ve been a tough article to write but what do you do if you must write about this team full time? How do you write the same article over and over in different ways week after week? Nothing pleasant to highlight, no wins or successes to discuss and the fans just want answers to the same questions:
When will they compete?
What about -prospect-?
When will they win?
Writing about the Os must be a tough, tough job after a while.
Not to mention unnecessary name drops and click bait. There is virtually no reason to mention Seager, Correa, or Bryant.
It’s a Zencka article, what did you expect?
I’ve literally stopped reading them because I assume I’ll have to click on all the links to double check his/her work myself.
Looks like the author somehow got his ERA and FIP right, but pulled in 2022 Steamer projections for starts and IP.
So the good news about a Zencka article is that it brings us all together and sharpens our sleuthing skills.
While there is a long way to go, there is at least hope. They’re no longer crooked number of years away. The OF should be fine. Call up Adley when they finally can and bring up the rest of the kids as the summer progresses. The O’s have SS in the low minors coming but I don’t mind the idea of dipping into the deep end for a premium SS with the idea of an eventual position change. They have money available if they go that route. Hopeful to see at least a productive offseason this time around.
The Os aren’t a SS away from taking the Division by storm. We can’t even land a decent pitcher because every one of them gets shellacked in the park’s tiny confines. The perennial losing seems to be both cultural and institutional.
We watching economics in miniature here. Small economies have difficulty competing with larger economies.
I have four keepers in a keeper league and I’d say Mullins is a lock but I’m pretty terrified he will regress. Banking on another big year but cmon. It’s Baltimore.
Rotographs (at fangraphs) has a recent article about Mullins and how other recent 30/30 guys have done fantasy wise the year after. It’s a good read if you’re invested.
They have a good core of young position players in Mountcastle, Mullins and Mancini.
Mancini is 30, just shy of decline time. By baseball standards he’s nowhere near being young.
Unfortunately, they remain in the toughest division and it’s probably a big leap for them to even take 4th place. Toronto is good again and improving. The Rays seem to find a way to 100 wins every year. The Yankees and Red Sox are still there. It’s a long ways up for the O’s, but I’m pulling for them
I’m not disagreeing at all with your point, but the Rays have had exactly one 100-win season in the history of their franchise (this year).
Is it me or has their rebuild taken a really long time? Doesn’t seem they are close yet.
They started the rebuild after losing like 110 games. In that situation, it’s gonna take a few years, especially when they’re not trying at all to win during the process.
It’s only been three years; the Royals’ rebuild took like… six.
Yea this is one area where Orioles fans keep on trying to explain the rebuild. Going into 2018 the payroll was high, can’t fault them for that terrible season, they spent the $, it was just a disaster. After that you had a lame duck GM who traded away expiring or close to expiring contracts of some good pieces, and unfortunately the best player they got for Machado, Britton, Gausman, Oday, and Brach was probably ERA+ 100 candidate Bruce Zimmerman .
So they gutted a 115 loss team, literally have no prospect capital to show for it, allowed a new GM to start from the ground up in November 2018, built up an analytical staff and international scouting department… and then got hit with Covid delaying prospect development, and not to mention adding only 6 draft picks that draft.
I think to be fair you have to consider the start of the rebuild as November 2018 with 2020 counted at maybe a 3rd?… So to me this is like starting year 3 of the rebuild
They’ve been rebuilding since 1997 with marginal success here and there.
That’s only if you stretch the definition of rebuild to ridiculousness
They were almost devoid of tradable talent when they started it. I feel they’ve done well considering what they went into it with.
Maybe devoid is an overstatement but they were in bad shape except Machado.
The answer is no. End of story. Look, I don’t understand their rebuild. They don’t appear to be developing at the same rate as the Astros, Cubs and White Sox did with their rebuilds. Or even the Tigers, who are almost ready to start being a contender.
It took those teams a long time too, but you’re right, nothing to get excited about so far.
I know what you’re saying but I wasn’t even focusing on the length of time, but rather the accumulation of assets. I could see the near future for the Cubs and Sox while they were rebuking but other than the catcher and Grayson I’m not sure what the O’ s will look like when they should be starting to go for it beginning in 2023.
Rebuilding…not rebuking.
Besides Mullins & Hays there are Stowers, Kjerstad & Cowser coming in the next 2 years for the OF.
Within 2 years Gunnar Henderson, Westburg should be manning the left side of the infield with Mountcastle at 1st and Rutschman at C. Vavra, Servideo & Norby are interesting 2B prospects who should rise quickly through the minors.
Coby Mayo might be the most intriguing prospect not named Rutschman or Rodriguez right now as well.
Rotation should have a solid 1,2,3 in Means, G Rod and Hall. There are a plethora of 4/5 arms already at double AA or higher. From a pool of 10 or so the O’s need 2 to click while most of the remainder can become bullpen pieces. I’m talking about Kremer, Akin, Baumann, Lowther, Wells, Bradish, Smith, Zimmerman, Rom & Brnovich.
And the O’s have the #1 pick in 22′ along with #31 & #38 or so.
Thank you Buck Fiden. The first comment of Stowers. Not even the author mentioned him. He’s in the outfield with Mullins and Hays once his arb clock is kited another year.
I disagree about Mayo because of Stowers but excluding him he is the most intriguing prospect next on the list.
I love the enthusiasm about the minor league talent but in all honesty not all of them are making it. Scariest one being Hall. Dude can’t stay healthy, can’t rack up innings. He might end up in our pen similar to Harvey after so many injuries.
I personally only like Rom in the 4/5 slot, not a fan of the others. Maybe Baumann too. And let’s not forget about Baumler.
Gunner and Westburg look special. And for these two I’m talking about what I saw with my own two eyes down at Salisbury and again at Bowie later in the season.
And yes, with the first pick we better take Griffey2.0. And well done at accounting for luxury tax loses of draft picks for other teams to come up with picks 31 and 38.
Those are all large market teams that could extra revenue and invest it in international talent. Baez, Gurriel, etc.
They also started their rebuilds from stronger places, more assets to trade away to get pieces.
The market doesn’t even matter. What matters is in s few years, what do the O’s look like? Really can’t judge that from the here and now. The rebuild could be going fine, only time will tell.
If they were in the AL central maybe but unless something changes they have to play the rays,sox, jays and Yanks in about 50% of their games next year.
I really hope balanced schedule becomes a thing
Well, Rutschman is a top core piece in the league they can build around and they have a top pick in the next draft
The only other potential core piece is Kjerstad but I don’t think he’s a guy able to be part of a strong core 3
A lot of the times you establish a core but you’re stuck with a guy and a weaker core
And with Rutschman it’s questionable he can be part of a group that leads a team through the playoffs. He definitely has a hall of fame potential, but prodigious hall of fame production and winning championships are different things
You’re shooting for Correa-Altuve-Bregman, Rizzo-Bryant-Baez, Rollins-Utley-Howard. Those are the championship cores
Rutschman-Kjerstad and something else probably doesn’t get it done
That’s why I say Acuna getting injured helped the Braves because you eliminated a core piece that wasn’t going to win for you. It’s a brutal take, but I don’t think they can win with Acuna
This a set of bad takes
Well, my takes are almost always unpopular. They’re routinely hated violently
But that’s only because most people form a consensus of average thinking. It’s only the 1% of executives that know what wins and what will work
So, the 99% is always going to condemn what the 1% is doing
It’s like the one guy has an IQ of 134 that’s in the top 1.6%, and all the other people with lower IQ are shouting that his thoughts are wrong because they go against the consensus of the average IQ people
How are your takes “violently” opposed?
Also, congrats on the 134 IQ. Hope that’s working out for you better than here.
Send your resume to all the MLB teams then. Your talents are being wasted on this measly website.
Part of being a genius on the internet is convincing yourself that you’re misunderstood by the general illiterate public.
That way “lonely at the top” replaces “lonely.”
2% of the population has an IQ under 70, so alternatively maybe so many people disagree with you for other reasons.
I very much doubt any one with half a brain, including those with high IQ would ever suggest that you can’t win with Acuna, who is one of the very best baseball players in the league. Usually high IQ people base their decisions with fact and reason, in which you rarely use any
Who has “violently” hated you? Were these violent people charge for your persecution?
Have you considered the idea that your takes are refuted is because you’re just wrong? I mean you did say that Atlanta was better off without a top 10 player (probably top 5) in MLB based on what? ….a spine tingling feeling?
@Camden453: Right, your takes are unpopular because everyone else is stupid. It’s not because your takes are bad, it’s because everyone else independently doesn’t understand them.
By your logic, I can say the Orioles as currently constructed are a 100 win team, and then when everyone rips on me for being an idiot, I can just tell them that they’re part of the unwashed 99% masses and that 134+ IQ people would agree. What a self-aggrandizing joke.
@rct No, because predicting the Orioles winning 100 games defies all logical intelligence. It’s a statement even a low IQ person wouldn’t make
Way different than a minor opinion saying Kjerstad isn’t really a special core piece
My logic is simple and valid. Since most people are average IQ, they form a consensus together around mediocre valuations..
When a high IQ person in the top 1% of IQ comes in with different opinions, they trash those valuations. Because naturally people think whatever goes against what they think is something unintelligent
As Jonathon Swift said, “When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him”
Ok so, Jonathon Swift died in 1745, back when genius and intelligence was viewed completely differently, the quote isn’t relevant.
You are not a genius and you have not offered a single argument that your point of view is correct. As far as I can tell all, you’ve provided as proof of your argument is to say that you’re a genius, you’re misunderstood and we should just take your opinion as gospel.
There are a lot of very smart people in baseball, men and woman at the top of the intellectual scale are attracted to baseball and I have not heard a single person attempt to make an argument that the Braves were better off without Acuna, and there is no chance you’ll find anyone daft enough to attempt to make that argument.
BTW you don’t sound smart, all you’ve done is google a quote and call yourself a victim, you sound like a clown.
I used to teach university level philosophy of logic when I was 23
It’s always funny when someone tries to “make arguments” and “support claims” or think I should “provide evidence to substantiate” claims
I don’t see anyone arguing with you about Kjerstad not being a “special core piece.” It’s the Acuna thing that has everyone rankled. Watching Acuna play and looking at his numbers (one of those numbers is his age), anyone can see he’s one of the very best players in the world right now. But you seem to be arguing that he’s just “not a winner.” Which is fine, I guess, but I don’t think that can be proven with hard logic or statistical evidence. Even if he plays the rest of his [likely] HoF career with the Braves and they never win another playoff series in that time, that still wouldn’t be evidence to prove your point. There would be too many other variables and pure chance that would be involved to say that Acuna’s “lack of winningness”—which is so abstract as to be ridiculous— was the cause of it. You can die on that hill if you want, man, but it will never prove what you want it to.
@baumann you did a far better job of articulating my point then I did so thank you.
@Camden453 you find it funny that you are asked to provide some kind of valid reasoning for your completely off the wall argument? How arrogant are you? We are supposed to believe you are a genius without verification and we should accept your counter logic argument without any discussion. You call us sheep to conventional and then ask us to be sheep for you.
@baumann Yeah, and I know it’s the Acuna thing, and I know it would be unpopular. Nevertheless, I don’t care. When Acuna got injured I said it might be good for the Braves. It was
I also said two years ago the Braves should trade Acuna. You could see it coming in his approach
Not everything is greater quantity of stats. Some guys just want to win. They’re not going for stats
Some players have themselves stated this. They can put up huge numbers but it’s about winning, not stats
Plugging 8 guys with the most quantity of stats into the lineup is not necessarily a winning strategy
A winning formula is based on more than who puts up stats. We see all the time teams that are ranked lower in the league statistically make the playoffs
Statistics come from winning, not winning from statistics
It is not necessarily preferable to have a guy like Acuna who puts up more stats
The idea salary should be based on WAR is incredibly dangerous for the league. Now every player is just trying to put up stats
Plugging 25 stat machines into the process doesn’t guarantee success
@agb what point are you or others even arguing?
All people say is “your takes are bad” and I’m just supposed to accept that at face value, when they’re not even attacking a position
Then they endlessly commit argumentum ad populums by saying “well more people agree with me that your takes are bad”…or they just say, “well you’re a fool.”
Only one person even pointed out or argued one of my points, about Acuna
Saying a core of Rutschman/Kjerstad is not a winning core is not a provocative statement
The thing about Acuna is to point out that a greater quantity of prodigious stats that you likely get from Rutschman is not necessarily a winning formula
@baumann But there is some evidence about Acuna which suggests he’s not a “winning player”: physical mechanics
Physical mechanics and how the player moves on the field is also objective evidence
You can see some of the problems with mechanics he has developed and project that this isn’t likely a winning player
Taking that out of the lineup can be addition by subtraction…The additions the Braves made (Soler/Duvall, etc) were an improvement over Acuna based on the better physical mechanics those players were displaying. They added talent
I said two years ago the Braves should trade Acuna because he’s developing mechanical issues which will reduce his talent and eventually lead to reduced production.
It turns out he got a severe injury because of the mechanics problems he had been developing years ago
@Camden453 You have not provided a point and that’s what’s being argued, you’ve made some weird assertion about Acuna without providing any valid data points, no useful scouting, nothing, not a single shred of evidence and now you’re saying “prove me wrong”.
At this point its clear that you are one of two things, either a complete idiot and I should stop talking to you or a troll and I should stop talking to you, I don’t think you’re an idiot. However, if one thing is for sure its that you’re no genius.
Intelligence is knowing when the other person is wrong, wisdom is knowing when to refrain from telling them.
And again, maybe Acuna and other guys are top talents at first when originally they have good mechanics , but they can lose that quickly
Maybe they go out drink and party or don’t have good self-discipline. whatever it is, they’re not the talented player they were originally and they’re slowly losing it
When you realize Acuna is a lost cause, which I said he was two years ago, you trade that player
@agb ok, well, just look at Acunas bottom half. Among many other major physical problems. His bottom half is filling out way too much. overall he’s slowly developed loose, sloppy mechanics. He *did not* develop well and it’s only going to get worse
The fact he had a severe knee injury did not surprise me at all
I said a similar thing about David Wright. That he was unable to develop properly and was stuck with imbalanced mechanics. Acuna is even worse and there’s no real way to correct it
One glance at Acuna and you can tell the mechanics are incoherent and unsound
@Manny
And the difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has limits
You do not have a 134 IQ. If you think Rodriquez is not a huge part of any team`s core, your IQ is lower than 80.
He said himself that he’s no genius. He said he has an IQ of 134, and genius level starts at 140.
I used to teach stats, and if there’s one thing I’ve come to believe it’s don’t bother arguing with trolls or fools
@Camden- That’s an awful take- not a brutal one- on Acuna Jr. When you have a top 10 type talent in the game, no team is better off without that talent.
The Braves lost early because 2/3rds of the OF was a disaster. Ozuna was supposed to play LF and produce, but they lost him because of his own actions. Pache was supposed to be the CF, but they shouldn’t have gone into the season counting on him.
They didn’t win the WS because they lost Acuna Jr, they won it in spite of it because they were able to get 4 productive OFs to fill the 3 spots where they previously only had 1.
As for your Rutchsman take, that’s *almost* just as bad. The Catcher spot across baseball is largely so bad it’s almost hard to name 5 real standouts. If you have a potentially HoF caliber player at a position some teams consider themselves lucky to get any offense, that’s a Championship core piece. Obviously they have to adequately surround him with talent, but he’s a piece.
Isn’t Chris Davis’ 2022 contract still guaranteed? I know he retired and they agreed to defer some of the 22’ salary, but he’s still getting the 23 mil and it still shows as 23 mil on payroll in 22′ for tax purposes regardless of how its paid out.
He’s getting paid
Well yeah that’s my point, I’m refuting the first sentence in the body of the post.
It’s a terribly inaccurate article.
Short answer, no. MLB has the longest rebuilding cycles of teams in major NA sports. They’ve been bad long enough that they could be in the upswing, but they have not done enough to get there yet. They kept guys like Davis on the roster too long as an example. Still 2-3 years away.
Baltimore needs to start spending some money on better players. If Camden Yards is so great why does no one want to come. Hopefully Baltimore picks up Frazier or Wade.
Baltimore is buying into the modern rebuild which doesn’t include trying to improve the team year to year during the rebuild, it’s just- in five years we’ll be ready, we’re not even trying until then. Plenty of players would sign with the Orioles (or any team) if the offer was right.
I didn’t know you were an O’s fan Cosmo(?).
Not particularly an O’s fan just a fan of baseball in general. Mets are my team.
Ah, I see. Now I remember your frequent posting on Mets articles.
Agreed, Cosmo. Right now it’d take a premium offer to land a premium FA, but if the Orioles offered Corey Seager 400m over 10-12 years it isn’t as if he isn’t going to take it. The only way they’re at a disadvantage is if the offers are equal probably, unless it’s a bid on a guy possibly looking at a 1-2 yr last chance shot to win a WS.
Yes,that appears to be true. Perhaps TCZ can explain where his numbers differ.
TC Zencka either drew the short end of the stick for writer storylines or TC’s brother runs a dispensary.
I liked Ellis whatever his name is, wouldn’t have let him go. I think the Jays should get him.
I am concerned that this tanking experience has cost the Orioles fan support. They still will have the diehards but don’t think young fans are getting on the bandwagon. Elias has got to try to make the Orioles competitive. One possible step is to get bullpen help. They blew a lot of games with the other team exploding in the late innings.
Tanking is smart. The Nationals did it. Being .500 is the worst place to be
The Orioles made the playoffs in 2016. They’re rebuilding the right way I think. It usually takes 5 to 7 years to get there
Good point. Staying 500 gives you middle of the order picks
Assuming the O’s stay in Baltimore the fans will come back once the O’s get relevant again. Just like how they took 1998-2011 off but then came back in numbers to Camden Yards in 2012. I must disagree Jints1
It’s interesting in that they truly are about two years away. You can’t bank on these prospects coming up and being sure fire talent. I think you have to expect some growing pains for a season or two with them figuring it out. With that said should they really hold on to Means and Mullins? Those guys will be free agents or almost free agents by the time the teams new wave is ready. They might should consider a trade with Atlanta, get some guys who aren’t as close to free agency but you can maybe build around.
Means and Mullins would fill two holes for Atlanta, as far as the package going back to Baltimore it would have to be massive and to this date AA hasn’t done that size deal. But he might.
Would this work?
Mullins and Means for Ynoa, Pache, Muller, Vodnik, Grissom, and another filler ?
Not close.
Fun take, but I don’t think so. O’s seem to always have at least one to two established players (excluding Chris Davis) every season since the start of the rebuild.
(Excluding 2018 since Duquette signed players with the expectation of contending i.e Andrew Cashmere, Alex Cobb contracts)
It’s not a bad strategy, especially if the team by some miracle performs itself into contention for a playoff spot. Even if they don’t, having veterans who have worked with the team staff and have a understanding of the ropes gives the team some foundation to stand on and mentors for the rookies.
Though that’s just my assumptions, not any sort of concrete insider info.
That’s actually the exact reason why the O’s gave Hardy that 3 for 39 deal. Having Hardy sandwiched between rookies Schoop and Machado to mentor them. In my opinion.
Last year that trade proposal would have been the biggest overpay in MLB history.
Boy what a difference a year makes in the MLB.
Means has essentially held his value , perhaps slightly raised it by replicating his 2019 numbers. Given that he pitches in the friendly confines of the ALE, he’s probably a #3 starter at most stops. With 3 years of control left, I expect the O’s to want something similar to what the Twins got for Jose Berrios, Berrios is absolutely the better and more proven arm, but he was traded with half the control Means has. Getting Means this year also comes with about a $3M price tag this season which is peanuts compared to the going rate for a #3 arm. Adds to the high ask.
Pache could very well become a star, but he also could be one of the many hyped prospects that just cant hit at the highest level. His AAA stats were good not great and his MLB callup went poorly at best. His star has definitely dimmed.
Muller and Ynoa are good arm pickups. Neither screams #1 starter, but if you are looking for depth and rotation blocks, you can do much worse than guys with their potential.
I could see a world where Pache, Muller and Ynoa for Means or something similar is done.
But what I can’t see is adding a silver slugging 30/30 player with 4 years of team control into that deal for essentially only a longshot backend starter/ bullpen piece and a raw but intriguing SS. Mullins would cost a couple top 100 types alon e right now,
Definitely too much for just one, but the price for both is waaaaay higher. I dont see any team making a strong enough offer to pull both Means and Mullins from the O’s this year. But who knows, maybe next year the thought of this package will look like the biggest overpay in history again.
I’ve can’t understand why Pache has been rated so high for so long. He has exceeded an .800 OPS one time in his minor league career and that was .804.
Muller is interesting but clearly needs to harness control & cut down BBs. The SS Grissom would be a welcome addition, but to make that kind of deal the Braves would have to also include at least 2 of their plethora of talented starter prospects (Cusick, Davidson, Shuster, Strider, Elder & Tarnok).
That really is an embarrassment of riches for the starting pitching pipeline in Atlanta, all great K%, WHIP & BAA numbers.
This article needs a thorough fact-checking.
The Orioles are doing what they should be doing. Above all else dont be mediocre. Be terrible. Collect top 5 picks. And nail those picks.
American league east cannon fodder
NL West is as good as AL East.
I’m beginning the think waiting for prospects is not the correct way. The Yankees refused the give up Frazier and others before now the Yankees got nothing for Frazier. I’d give up Dominguez for the right guarantee player. If Washington doesn’t want to pay Soto Dominguez, Volpe and others for Soto.
At the top yes but not depth. SF and LAD probably finish 1-2 in the AL East last year but there are 4 teams in the east that are better than the rest of the West.
So if you’re an average team you’d probably prefer being in the west, the Dodgers couldn’t possible beat up on the Orioles worse than Tampa did, but maybe the orioles would scrap out a few more wins against the Rockies, Arizona and Padres (compared to the jays, yanks and sox)
3 number one starters and an All-Star shortstop for $25 million per season would fix Baltimore’s problems. It would cost at least 100 million a year. They either want to win titles or they don’t. Some years are really slow, and the free agents are there for the taking. Baltimore should take advantage.
Three aces and an all-star SS would fix any teams problems, the problem is there aren’t three aces on the market most years. This year there is one ace available- Max Scherzer.
The Orioles are still a little bit of a way from competing but they are not as bad as it seems to many fans of baseball. They will still loose a lot of games this year but you will hear it many times this year ” No one wants to play the Orioles “.
3 years into the rebuild, and frankly, they really stink. 2b,SS,3B are complete wastes, both 1b/DH guys have their warts, nobody thinks Cedrick can entertain in the same way again (though there might not be THAT much of a drop). The pitching is horrendous, both starting and relieving; Means is a borderline 3rd starter, and guys like Sulser and Wells look like those type of relievers who sandwich 2 bad years around a good one. Action Hayes, I admit, is fun to watch, and seems primed to be an above average player.
I know they have financial issues; bizarre deferrals, the endless MASN mess. But they have no debt, a gorgeous ballpark, and an informed and rabid fan base. But attendance has fallen off the cliff, and so has, I would imagine, interest. And no, resigning Galvis isn’t going to change that. And please, enough about the Camden’s neighborhood. In my day, I was always told to bring a bazooka when I went to the Bronx.
The farm? Ya, it ranks #1 because Adley and G-Rod are superior talents, about as certain to be successful as could be. But there isn’t much depth; Hall has injury issues, neither Westburg nor Henderson is a “plus” fielder (I’ve seen Henderson; even at 3B, he looks like Devers), the OFers are a mishmash with collective talents that look more “meh” than impactful.
Even their “right” choices can be questioned; Adley’s top notch; no one doubts it. But more and more it looks like Witt may have been the better choice. Years ago he Rays took Longoria, no doubt a great pick. But they passed on Kershaw to get him; who would you rather have had?
More than anything, they look completely listless, just about all the time. I always compare them to the Pirates, who are similarly short on talent, but play a relatively entertaining kind of game. Shelton has the Bucs having fun; why not, you’re not going to win anyway. Hyde seems to be unable to stifle the players’ yawns.
So far, Elias and his gang get a resounding “D” for the rebuild. And oh, it’s the AL East, where even an “A” for a mid-market team might not be enough.
I enjoyed your post but disagree about the depth of prospects behind Adley & G-Rod. The Orioles have been stockpiling athletic bats who get on base at a high rate and who can run. I think Westburg & Henderson will man the left side of the infield for a long time and both be .280/.360/.475 guys with 20-30HRs. Both are solid defenders. The real wealth is in the outfield, I honestly believe Kjerstad is going to hit 40HRs a year and be solid in one of the corners. Stowers is under rated, a lot of Ks but high OBP and 30+ HRs is likely a given in Camden Yards, Cowser profiles as an above .300 hitter with close to .400 OBP.
All that is to say nothing of Coby Mayo who may have been the steal of the 2020 draft. Huge power.
Now pitching is a different story, I’m really hoping some college pitcher establishes himself as the clear cut 1/#1 guy this year and the O’s attack college starters at #1, #31 & $38 like the Royals did back in the 2018 draft.
Wouldn’t it be advantageous for MLB to have sort of system in place—like the NFL—which provides small market teams with at least a fighting chance, year in and year out? Wouldn’t it mean more fans, more interest and more revenue if there was something along the lines of parity? I know it’s a pipe dream but the current system of throwing the wild card bone out there is a butterfly bandage for a real problem. As is, teams like the O’s, Pirates, Royals get to build their systems, develop players, watch them compete for a year or two and then allow them to leave because they can’t afford to pay them market value. So burn it all down and start the process again and perhaps you’ll compete in ten years. Doesn’t make sense
Not a direct reply to the content of your comment, but it’s worth pointing out that each team, aside from the Phillies and Mariners, has reached the postseason in the last 10 years.
Guess what I’m saying is, it could be worse haha
Wow that is a rather shocking stat.
That’s a trivia question most people would get wrong
Come on and sign a few decent players and make this storied franchise respectable again, it’s the least they can do for there fans.
Asking if the O’s are competitive in 2-4 years isn’t really relevant to their fanbase. What is relevant is do the sons sell the team when Peter passes away. They’ll wait until then for tax purposes. And will the new owner flirt with moving the team or invest in the club early to reinvigorate the fans? The prospects are nice to chat about, but until money gets spent at a much higher pace than current ownership has done in the last 10+ years, the on-field results won’t improve.
The title of this article is without a doubt the most absurd one I’ve ever seen for an MLBTR article, and I’ve been coming here since like 2013. Can we get excited about the worst team in baseball? A team that just put up a staff ERA+ of 78 and a lineup with a 90 OPS+?
You generally write articles about excitement for young teams that have taken a first step or have a handful of exciting players that are just about to pop at the same time. The Orioles are neither. Unless they sign like four or five big free agents, they will be lucky to not lose 100 games again.
Trade Mullins
When the Orioles are ready to compete they will compete despite being in the AL East. Who won more games from 2012 to 2016 in the American League? The Baltimore Orioles of the AL East. The farm system has greatly improved during the rebuild and the plan is once more of the players on the farm are ready, the Orioles will start adding legitimate free agents to the roster and have a talent pipeline from the minors to add to the roster and make trades with. You can try to get your little upvotes with your little jokes at the Orioles’ expense but there is plenty of reason for optimism going forward for the Orioles.
> Guaranteed Contracts
> None
> 2022 commitments: $0MM
> Total long-term commitments: $0MM
100% wrong. Per CBS Sports and Spotrac:
Chris Davis is set to receive $42 million in deferred payments in a 15-year period from 2023 to 2037 as a residual after-effect of the seven year, $161 million contract he signed with the Orioles in 2016.
After receiving his full $23 million salary in 2022, Davis will earn:
$9.16 million annually from 2023 to 2025
$3.5 million from 2026 to 2032
$1.4 million from 2033 until 2037
@Terry
There was a buyout of Davis’s contract
It was adjusted so there is no current effect on the Orioles
At least that is my understanding
They are writing this in terms of the salary cap, the buyout costs the team $ but does not count against the cap.
Rooting for some anti-tank in the next CBA, maybe MLB can actually force the Orioles to compete since they are not doing so on their own.
I feel bad for the Orioles but I feel worse for the guys who have to write about them. How many different ways can you say, year after year, that the team sucks?
baseball-reference WAR is referred to as bWAR, not rWAR, no?
It depends who you ask tbh. I use rWAR personally.
No, it is rWAR. fWAR is fangraphs.
There is no bWAR
“Can we be excited about the Orioles yet?”
Depends on if you find sitting around and watching milk curdle “exciting”…
I believe a bold front office move would be required. Trade for Rhys Hoskins
Love me some Orioles. 2046 MLB World Series Champions.
Baltimore will have a winning record
In 2050
I could squint and see them be decent in a couple years, but damn if the AL East is still the AL East then decent is still probably a 5th place team even
Going to be hard to out develop the rays. And the other teams can easily spend 200 million. They need to develop a superstar or 2 and a couple elite pitchers.
If you took the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Rays out of the AL, then sure the Os will win the AL East.
The reality is this Orioles team is going to be better then most people think.
One of the most important positions is catcher and one of the most difficult to address and the Orioles have the best catcher since Posey coming up. He is an excellent defensive catcher and makes the pitchers better with his savy his is going to be special.
They also have a true #1 coming soon in Grayson Rodriguez and Hall not too far behind that. They have a great center fielder there outfield isn’t bad there infield needs work they do have Gunner coming and a couple of free agents and this team could be a lot better by 2023.
The biggest reason that I think Baltimore will be better is because of Adley Rutschman I think he will be special. He is a winner he has won at every level and he is going to win at the big league level to. Aa a Red Sox fan I am truly jealous Baltimore fans are going to see a truly special player and talent.
This is what I thought last year and boy was I wrong. It’s really going to come down to the starting pitching. If two of the fringe guys take a step forward (akin, Kremer, Zim, Lowther), then I think they can get close to .500, but this is assuming everyone else plays up to expectations.
Bruin – I disagree with your point about the team. They won’t invest in it and will always pick up 2nd tier guys, especially in the rotation.
But I agree about Rutschman. I have a friend who knows baseball, is usually right evaluating which minor league guys will make it, and who’s gone to Bowie to watch him play a few times. He didn’t buy Wieters as anything higher than a good player (not the next Johnny Bench the Orioles brass made him out to be), and he turned out to be right. He says Rutschman is a star.
Rutschman will be one of the top 10 players in baseball within a year the kid is that good.
If the O’s want to accelerate the rebuild, they’d trade Means and Rutschman to the Dodgers for RHP Bobby Miller, C Diego Cartaya, and OF Luis Rodriguez.
An astute GM would propose a deal like this. I don’t think Elias is competent or adventurous enough to consummate a deal such as this.
GM has to be able to form a bullpen. After all star break fry , scott, and tate were figured out by the league also need a pitching coach with emphasis on throwing strikes. Too many walks. Picking up other teams cast offs in search of a miracle arm doesn’t sound very analytic.
I don’t buy the minor league prospects until they perform at the MLB level, especially pitching, for the Orioles. Let us not forget.
Prospect 1: A first round pick who lit up college ball and the year after being drafted, went 11-2 with a 1.91 ERA over 2 MiLB levels, over 1K per inning. Penciled in as a top of the rotation like guy for the next decade
Prospect 2: A first round pick who pitched better the next two years, going 19-16 with a 3.12 ERA at AA and AAA. Expected to be a part of the rotation for the next decade
Prospect 3: A high school hot shot picked #5 overall. Expected to be in the majors within 3 years as a top of the rotation type guy.
Answers: 1 = Brian Matusz. 2. Garrett Olson. 3. Matt Hobgood
None of them resembled Rodriguez
When Rodriguez comes up and inevitably doesn’t live up to the billing, then they will resemble each other..
Then maybe trade him to a competent team who can turn him into a Cy Young contender.
Hey! The Orioles residence in the AL East cellar is exactly one year and running. Check out 2020.