If you scan MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents looking for a third baseman, you’ll quickly see Kris Bryant in the #4 slot, predicted to get a contract of $160MM over six years, an average annual value of $26.67MM. Then there’s a big drop-off to Kyle Seager at #31 and Eduardo Escobar at #35. Each is projected to get a two-year deal, with Seager getting a total of $24MM and Escobar $20MM.
Age is certainly a justified reason for Bryant to get a longer contract, as he’s about to turn 30 in January, whereas Seager just turned 34 and Escobar will turn 33 in January, his birthday being the day after Bryant’s, making him almost exactly three years older. However, looking at their recent track records, they may not be as far apart as one might think.
Bryant was a high profile prospect who burst onto the scene in 2015. In his first three seasons, he lived up to all of the hype, hitting .288/.388/.527 for a wRC+ of 144. Combined with solid defense, he was worth 20.7 fWAR over those three seasons, which included winning NL MVP in 2016 and a World Series ring to boot. He has slowed down since that time, however, primarily on the defensive side of things. His slash line from 2018 to 2021 is still great, coming in at .268/.363/.479, wRC+ of 124. But due to diminished defensive numbers, that adds up to 11.1 fWAR over those four seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average gave Bryant 5 and 4 at third base in 2016 and 2017, respectively. But since then, he’s been at 0 or below, including -4 at third base in 2021 and -10 overall.
Escobar’s trajectory has been almost the opposite, as he had a breakout year in 2018 and has had his strongest campaigns in recent years. Like Bryant, he had three solid seasons in the past four years, with the shortened 2020 season being his weakest. His overall line from 2018 to 2021 is .259/.318/.475, wRC+ of 105. His defense has been graded around league average in that time, allowing him to accumulate 9.5 fWAR in that span, just 1.6 shy of Bryant. In 2021, Bryant’s wRC+ of 123 was ahead of Escobar’s 107, but the defensive differences meant that his 3.6 fWAR on the campaign was just barely ahead of Escobar’s 3.0. Escobar’s nightmare season in 2020 resulted in -0.5 fWAR, but he was worth three wins or more in each of 2018, 2019 and 2021.
As for Seager, his best run of play was from 2012 to 2017. He has certainly slipped a bit since then but still managed to be a solid contributor thanks to his power and defense. Over the 2018-2021 timeframe, he hit .224/.298/.423, for a wRC+ of 99 and 8.5 fWAR, just a shade behind Escobar. Despite some ups and downs on offense, his glovework has been fairly steady. In the estimation of FanGraphs, he’s been worth at least 1.5 fWAR for ten straight seasons now, including the shortened 2020 campaign. In the six seasons of data for OAA, Seager has been worth at least three OAA in five of those seasons, with 2018 being the only outlier.
There’s no denying that Bryant deserves to be the top option out of these three. He’s the best hitter and offers upside that the others can’t match. The potential implementation of the NL DH would also make it easier for him to play the field less and perhaps maximize the value of his bat. His ability to play the outfield opens his market, although his defense hasn’t been graded well out on the grass. For teams looking for someone to play third base regularly, his declining defensive numbers would surely give them pause, especially when the asking price will probably be near $30MM per season. Escobar and Seager should cost less than half what Bryant will, both in terms of years and average annual value. There would be some logic to a team taking one of the cheaper options and using the cost savings to upgrade another area of their squad.
If you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, would you rather blow your budget and commit long-term to Bryant, and then get some cheap fliers to fill out the rest of your team? Or would you rather spread your money around more evenly, getting a cheap option like Escobar or Seager and then having more money for other additions? Have your say in the poll below.
(Poll link for app users)
How is this even a question? KB all day
Are you saying that you’d want KB’s contract at that price for the A’s over the other guys? You wouldn’t be able to have much else if they are truly aiming for a payroll of $50m.
Cardinals should consider Escobar and stroman. Add a couple of cheap relievers and that team would look pretty decent on paper. Still gotta play the games, but they would compete for first in that division for sure. Brewers still look good too though.
They are asking who would you sign taking into account what it will cost to sign. So would you prefer KB, or say Escobar plus Stroman or Taylor? Etc.
Salary/production ratio. Bryant is expensive and comes with a moderate risk of production decline
And a significant injury risk with the history of his shoulder.
@camden, agreed. I’ve been on the fence about Bryant since roughly September 1st. When he came to the Giants, his bat was solid but not “great.” His defense was “kinda solid” at best. I was so hoping he’d be GREAT for the Giants and that we’d re-sign him accordingly.
But, I think any team who gives him 22-25MM/5-6 is going to regret it. Good teammate tho!!!
You can’t judge Bryant on his time with the Giants. It’s not only a small sample, but it’s also not unusual for players numbers to suffer after being traded, as they try to adjust to a new team/park/living situation.
His numbers in SF were the worse of his career except for the also small sample of the 35 games in 2020. His 2021 OPS+ in the 93 games in Chicago before the trade was 130. That, and not the 113 OPS+ in SF, is closer to what I think you can expect from him.
Right? Why is Seager even in the discussion? I don’t think the market will be that crazy for him. He’s like Todd Frazier 2.0
Only 16 players in MLB hit more HR than Kyle Seager this year. He hit as many home runs as Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton. He’s solid on defense and stays healthy. Bargain value veteran at 2 years $12M or whatever in my opinion. He had way more RBI than Nelson Cruz who many Mariners fans want instead. I wanted them to pick up Seager’s option but it was obvious they wouldn’t.
I agree with almost everything you said but Seager is, in my opinion, below average defensively. And has had majorly injury issues. Think he’ll get a lot more than $12 million a year though.
If they eliminate the shift seager reverts back to being an above average stick at 3rd base. This year he just said eff it and tried to kill the 1st/2nd basemen which resulted in a bunch of bombs. If that extra guy isn’t sitting in short right he would be a safe bet to increase his obp by 20-30 pts.
They aren’t going to eliminate the shift, nor should they. These are professional athletes that are supposed to be the best at what they do. If a batter is continually facing shift they should be spending more time in cages working on their swing.
Should the NBA have moved the free throw line up only for when players like Shaq went to the line?
The NBA has illegal defense.
Tigers3232- what you’re saying is reasonable, its a logical answer except you’re forgetting this main point: In this years CBA discussions MLB is actually having dialogue re: the shift.
I’m not saying there definitely will be a change in defensive shifts. Instead- MLB is so desperate to change the game to appease a section of the fanbase it is considering changing or eliminating them altogether.
I assume MLB thinks there will be more Runs scored if they eliminate or modify defensive shifts.
Chester Copperpot:
The NBA has an illegal defense, but it’s watered down tremendously. All it is these days is the 3-second rule.
The NBA started allowing zone defenses about 20+ years ago When was the last time you saw illegal defense called in an .NBA game that wasn’t a 3-second call? I can’t remember seeing one in decades.
True – and in a sense? 3 seconds is more of an “illegal offense.”
I don’t love the shifting – something about it seems to offend the old-timey baseball sensibilities deep inside of me; but I don’t think it should be made illegal. If a team wants 7 guys mulling around second base, so be it. It’s silly, but shouldn’t be against any rules.
It seemed to me that most of the season hitters don’t care and try to hit over the shift (or through it) but when the postseason came, a lot of guys (Freeman, et al) began beating it by going the other way. To use him as an example, he was what? 0-8 to start the postseason and then began spreading the ball around…effectively.
I think the shift is out of control.
It hurts the action. It takes away the edge a defensive team has as 5 players are often in an area that 3 should be in. It makes more plays routine as defenders have a smaller amount of ground to cover. It makes for less double plays on ground balls, as well as awkward tries as the smooth timing between the 2B and SS is replaced by one – or a 3B – moving to the 2B bag and throwing to 1B without pivoting. Along the same lines, it’s caused injuries to infielders and OF’s that are not familiar with what the other is going to do in that situation – they collide thinking they’re supposed to get the batted ball.
It makes the game uglier.
Working on their swing isn’t going to help them against the shift. A player often crushes the ball into the shift, it’s not a matter of swinging better at all. Maybe learn to bunt once in a while but the cages ain’t helping with that.
Why cater the entire sport of baseball to one-dimensional left-hand hitters?
Its not fair to pitchers, right hand hitters (notice no players standing in short left field (obviously)), and left handed hitters who know how to hit?
Cater the game to Joey Gallo and Brian McCann types?… what a joke.
A Cubs fan is in the house!!! Last place is beautiful
Mmmmm I’m not convinced they are worse than the Pirates
Two of these player, Kris Bryant and Eduardo Escobar, provide additional value with their versatility. A team like the White Sox could potentially sign either as a starter at a position that is not 3B. Bryant could fill the ChiSox hole in RF while Escobar would primarily man 2B.
I still question if Bryant’s versatility makes him that much more valuable. His true value is clearly as a third baseman. Does the fact that he can fill in at the corners really add that much to what is already a valuable player due to primary position and hitting? I really don’t think so.
Escobar makes a ton of sense for Seattle. Switch-hitter with some pop, could bridge the gap till Noelvi Marte’s arrival.
Seattle’s infield took a hit losing Seager, but it could be stellar with Escobar and Semien joining JP and France.
I would rather sign Escobar to a 2/$20 than Bryant to a 6/$160
Now if Bryant would sign a 4 year $100 million contract with a vesting option for a 5th year or a $5 million buyout I’d rather have him.
But don’t want any part of a 6/$160 for him.
His swings success is based off his athleticism. He might decline fast around age 32-33
Kris Bryant to the Mets
yes he will and Starling Etc…
Lol. Mets fans rock. Never change.
Why?
Bryant and Marte as if they’re a foregone conclusion and not being sought after by other teams.
A lot of Met fans seem to have the habit of saying that Player X is GOING TO sign with the Mets instead of saying that the player SHOULD be signed by the Mets. Stating an opinion as a prediction instead of as an opinion. I find it very odd.
Starting with the “foregone conclusion” that Thor wouldn’t leave the Mets and would accept the QO. Most Mets fans parroted this foregone conclusion.
If 3B is a need on my team, I want to sign Bryant or trade for Chapman.
Toronto signs Seager on a 1 year deal for average+ defense and hit 30 hr’s batting 7th. Biggio and whomever else plays 2nd. Then spend spend spend on pitching.
I think you meant power + Defense.
But not a bad approach honestly, Espinal and Biggio would be a nice platoon at 2b. It will be interesting to see how the view Moreno’s Defense at 3b as well which would make a 1 year stop gap make even more sense for them
Put Seager in a band box and his value should increase rather exponentially. The defense is still there.
Safeco/t mobile is build for lefties. He’s a great dude, great defense but he cannot hit for average. He’s a great league average 3b, on a deep team he’s fine, but he’s not a center piece.
He would be a nice fit in Yankee stadium but probably not a good fit for Yankees who already have Urshela and LeMahieu penciled in for third. However, if they used either or both in a trade then he would fit nicely. At least one poster has predicted a Seager left side of the infield for the Yankees. A lot would have to happen for that to come off, but certainly not impossible.
Kyle Seager had a .285 OBP. Very overrated.
Tied with Stanton & Harper for 17th in all of baseball for HRs. Underrated.
Everyone hits HRs. His OPS is average.
That’s the second time you’ve cited that statistic. It’s not that impressive. Sixteen players with more HRs, that’s not a small number. It doesn’t override the abysmal OBP like you think it does. Can’t judge a player on one stat like HRs. OBP, OPS are more encompassing and tell ya much more.
Can’t judge based on one stat, yet look at this one stat! OPS is based off OBP.
Perhaps take a look at what his teammates said about him. Watch them cry on the field knowing they’ll never play together again. They didn’t seem to mind the OBP. Some players are more than their stats. Kyle Seager is one of them.
Well, first of all, OPS is literally several stats in one, you’re basing your judgement solely on HRs. Second, you’re moving the goal posts now. His personality and likability amongst teammates is an entirely new issue.
I’m in the Escobar camp from the Blue Jays’ perspective. I think it’s smarter for them to spread a little money around and could probably do a fair bit of work that way. It’s a little frustrating that 3B is a roster need and this is what they have to choose from in free agency. I’d like a little more on base ability than Seager or Escobar bring to the table but if they were going to carry a similar contract parallel to Springer’s, I’d rather they bring Semien back than sign Bryant even if it means Biggio at 3B.
Why’s espinal getting no love!
I love Espinal. But I think I’d rather have him as a bench piece than setting up the roster with him in a starting role. If he was starting, I feel like his glove and range are wasted at 3B. I like him up the middle much better.
I believe that the main reason for KB’s defensive fall-off at 3rd base is all the moving around he’s been doing. Sure, that increases his versatility; however, he’s become a ‘jack of all trades, master of none’ type of player.
Obviously, KB is the best player of the three, but for the contract each is expected to sign, I’d feel most comfortable with Escobar.
Agreed. If you are talking about which player will give you the best bang for your buck it’s Escobar. He offers switch hitting and positional flexibility for a fraction of the cost of what Bryant will warrant on the open market. As others have mentioned signing one of Escobar/Seager also allows the GM room to sign another starting caliber player.
If I were in a GM’s chair I would want nothing to do with Kris Bryant’s agent Scott boras. You’d end up with an albatross contract paying for past performance. Escobar all day
Kris bryant is overrated. Good player. Nice positional flexibility. But he never became the big home run hitter people expected. 160 million for him can only bring regret
I’m a Cubs fan, and I’ve been saying that for years. Either he was overhyped from the jump, or he can’t get out of his own way on some level. It just seemed like he always had some type of health issue that was always an excuse for him not truly reaching his potential. He’s like the James Worthy of MLB – solid contributor on a team of stars, but don’t make him the cornerstone of your team or he’ll disappoint every time.
James Worthy is in the HoF, has 3 rings, is a 7-time AS, and was a finals MVP. Yeah I can see why he’s like Bryant and “can’t get out of his own way”.
The only reason Worthy wasn’t the guy the team was built around was because he played with Magic and Kareem, 2 of the all time greats.
Escobar. KB’s going to get WAY overpaid and is highly volatile.
I’d go the 24m for Seager since it’s the best salary/production ratio
Bryant is high risk for entering the declining phase. at that price it’s probably an overpay and eventually bad contract territory
To me Bryant does not project to defy typical post 30 aging patterns
Hes a peak-early player, which means his prime years are long past
It’d take some maneuvering but wish the Padres would figure out a way to take one of the three. Could see Seagar slide in at first…
Ok so we put all three of these guys in steel cage match who walks out?
I chose Escobar for Position versatility (2B,SS,3B) and hes a switch hitter
Josh Harrison, left off your top 50, is one year older than Escobar but a Career WAR surpassing Escobar .. Escobar 11.9.. Harrison 16.2 coming off a Career high in BB, PA & RBI.. (HR’s are not everything )… career OBP for Escobar.. .309, Harrison .318… Escobar 1128 games, Harrison 1049.. the more complete player is Harrison. Hands down..
Seager to the Yankees with his brother.
seager to the rangers with his brother
I would sign Seager and spread the money around.
I’m curious to know which teams are most likely shopping or trading for a third baseman?
Bryant would fit well with the Phillies in the following regards:
o He can play a half-decent 3B and LF, both of which the Phillies are trying to fill. So he can toggle between the 2 positions as players attempt to fill the other.
o He’s an additional solid run-producing bat which the Phillies need.
o He and Harper are close friends, their wives and children as well. It will be a comfortable situation for all. Scott Boras represents both, so he may well try to work out something between Bryant and the Phillies.
The drawbacks:
o The Phillies have too many RH bats (Realmuto, Hoskins, Segura, plus Vierling and Bohm if they make it). It’s the reason they brought in Stubbs as a back-up Catcher. What they need is a strong LH bat to go along with Harper.
o The Phillies also need to find a CF and at least 3 decent bullpen pitchers. Bryant would probably eat up too much of their payroll space.
They aren’t going to eliminate the shift, nor should they. These are professional athletes that are supposed to be the best at what they do. If a batter is continually facing shift they should be spending more time in cages working on their swing.
Should the NBA have moved the free throw line up only for when players like Shaq went to the line?
The Reds need to get at least 2 of these 3 guys.
Where’s Mr. Lol?
Someone will overpay for Bryant.
Seager to a team and stadium that will fit his hitting(heavy pull hitter)
Would prefer Chapman to Seattle, and add Siemen. GG at 3rd,2nd and short. And if White can get his hitting squared away-GG at 1st.
Seager would be last of the 3 for me. I don’t like the sharp increase in SOs, and the sharp decrease in OBP. Those could be signs of a player in decline as he enters his age 34 season.
If I needed a 3B, and I couldn’t afford Bryant, and Escobar went elsewhere, I’d consider Seager, but not for any longer than 2 years. That would probably mean I couldn’t sign him, but some sort of fill-in would be more attractive than a longer contract for Seager.
Kris Bryant is just not as good as people want him to be or think he is. He’s a good player, he’s not great but he’ll be paid like a franchise cornerstone player and he just isn’t that guy anymore.
Escobar. Slightly cheaper and slightly better than Seager. KB is just too long and too expensive. My guess is that he will be a Seager equivalent in another 2-3 years.
Wow, you described bryant “hitting .288/ .388/ .527” while frazier gets the “mashing” description even though his numbers were lower and for about 160 abs.
Gotta keep those yankee fans happy. Keep stroking them mlbtrs.
LOL
There was another Seattle third baseman a few years back with declining offensive numbers but with a great glove. Once he was able to leave that pitcher’s park, his offense picked up considerably. Now I’m not saying Kyle Seager is Adrian Beltre, but I sure would like to see what he could do playing somewhere else. Seems like a great fit for any of the AL East clubs.
This is sort of an odd comparison in skills though.
Bryant is a RH hitter, Seager is a LH hitter, Escobar is a swith hitter. Bryant and Escobar offer versatility whereas Seager does not.
Bryant can line up at 3B/1B and all 3 OF spots. Escobar can play all 4 Infield positions (even if its been a minute since he has seen any real time at SS) and has even played some LF. Seager has lined up exclusively at 3B other than a few games at 2B/SS in his first two seasons.
All three have power but by virtue of other skills i would go:
Kris Bryant
Eduardo Escobar
Kyle Seager
Yes Bryant can line up at 5 defensive spots, but he’s average at best in all of them. Plus hitter but I wasn’t all that impressed with his defense.
I really think Bryant can only “play” CF because he’s been occasionally put out there. He’s no center fielder. He doesn’t really belong there. And being able to backup 1B doesn’t add much value.
I wish Blue Jays to sign Escobar for two or three years.
The interesting thing is that the Mariners can afford to sign both Bryant and Escobar if they wanted. The multitude of defensive alignments along with Abraham Toro and Ty France would be quite interesting
After watching Bryant for 6 years in Chicago, while he may be the best among these 3, I think he comes with a lot of red flags long term, Yes he can play multiple positions adequately, he does need routine days off (as the Cubs did prior to trading him) to stay fresh. I’ve also noticed that he does tend to get “banged up” and missed 3-4 games (literally Ross said it was nothing and he missed a key series). This usually happens when he plays the outfield, so for his long-term health, it might be good to make sure he gets 75% or more of his time at 3B (or even 1B).
Personally, I think his defense at 3B has regressed a bit and given his injury proneness, I think he’d make a helluva DH: he stays healthier and can focus on hitting. I’m not saying he’s done-done as a position player; I think he can handle the field some, but if you want to get 150+ games out of him (something he hasn’t done since 2017) keep him away from the field as much as you can.
Kyle Seager and Eduardo Escobar will both sign with Toronto
I love Kyle Seager, the guy, and I wish him all the best. I think it would be outstanding if some team gave him the opportunity to play with his brother for a season or two.
If Kyle could play some corner outfield I would love to see him in texas. Great clubhouse guy and professional. He would be a great safety net for Jung at third and if Jung takes off then put him in a corner outfield spot.