Emerging as an everyday player in 2019, Victor Robles hit .255/.326/.419 with 17 homers over 617 plate appearances for the Nationals — below-average (92 wRC+, 91 OPS+) by a league-wide standard but quite respectable for a player in his age-22 season. Robles also stole 28 bases in 37 chances, and was exceptional over 1199 innings in center field, posting +23 Defensive Runs Saved, +22 Outs Above Average, and +6.1 UZR/150.
Since Robles was a key figure in the Nats’ World Series triumph, his place in Washington baseball history is in some ways already secured. However, with two lackluster seasons since that seeming breakout year, the jury is still out on whether or not Robles is still a cornerstone piece for the Nationals in the future.
In a sense, the Nationals’ larger struggles give Robles some extra leeway. After consecutive last-place finishes and a trade deadline fire sale of many of their veterans, it isn’t yet clear if the Nationals are planning to return to contention in 2022, or if the club will take another year to reload. Washington didn’t do much in the way of big transactions pre-lockout, and much of the team’s winter focus has been on making new staffing hires on the coaching and player development fronts throughout the organization.
Even if 2022 is more of an evaluation year in the District, there’s still natural pressure on Robles to perform. His lack of production in 2020-21 meant that he is projected for a modest $1.7MM in 2022, his first season of arbitration eligibility. If Robles again doesn’t hit next year but continues to play good defense, the Nationals probably wouldn’t be moved to non-tender him since he’d still have a pretty inexpensive price tag, even for a fourth outfielder type. (Caveat: it is possible the arbitration process could be altered in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement.)
Becoming “only” a fourth outfielder would have to count as a bit of a disappointment for a player with Robles’ prospect pedigree. It wasn’t long ago that Robles was a consensus pick as one of baseball’s best minor leaguers, as scouts and evaluators thought even more highly of Robles than they did Juan Soto when the two were coming up in Washington’s farm system.
However, the hitting potential that Robles displayed in the minors and in the 2018-19 seasons seemed to vanish over the last two big league seasons. Since the start of the 2020 campaign, Robles has hit .209/.304/.302 with five homers over 558 PA, translating to a measly 67 wRC+ and 68 OPS+. The biggest issue has been a lack of hard contact, as Robles has some of the worst hard-hit ball numbers of any player in baseball over the last three seasons. Robles also has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, though his walk rate did improve to a slightly above-average 8.9% in 2021.
Even beyond the struggles at the plate, Robles has 12 steals in 21 chances in 2020-21, and he was a below-average runner in general according to Fangraphs’ baserunning metric. Even the glovework has been in decline, as over his last 1215 innings in center field, Robles has a -4 DRS, and -3.3 UZR/150, though his OAA total is still +3.
Robles’ decision to add 15 pounds in the 2019-20 offseason may have contributed to all of these problems, as his attempt to help boost his power had a deleterious effect on basically every aspect of his game. Robles cut that weight prior to last year’s Spring Training, yet the difficulties continued over the 2021 season. The Nationals even took the step of demoting Robles to Triple-A for the final month of the season, though since Robles did post a .936 OPS over his 93 PA with Rochester, there is hope that his return trip to the minors might have helped him regain some confidence.
Heading into 2022, Robles still ostensibly Washington’s top option in center field, though Lane Thomas now looms as a possible replacement. Acquired from the Cardinals in the Jon Lester trade, Thomas broke out to hit .270/.364/.489 over 206 PA with the Nats, and positioned himself for an everyday role in the D.C. outfield. Thomas is likely a better defensive fit as a left fielder than as a center fielder, but he is at least good enough up the middle to take over the position if Robles is unable to get on track.
Andrew Stevenson, Yadiel Hernandez and minor league signing Rusney Castillo are also in the mix to vie for outfield playing time, plus Robles’ immediate future may also be impacted by whatever the Nationals have planned for their post-lockout moves. Even if the Nats aren’t planning to contend, that doesn’t mean they might not add a veteran or two on one-year contracts, with an eye towards potentially flipping those veterans at the trade deadline.
It also worth stressing that Robles doesn’t even turn 25 years old until May, so it’s possible his prime years may still be well ahead of him. If the Nationals’ step back meant they didn’t have to a tough decision on Robles this winter, however, that decision may get a little tougher if Robles still hasn’t shown any improvement during the 2022 season. If Robles can at least approach his 2019 form, that will provide at least one answer for the Nationals within this period of uncertainty for the franchise.
Great Orginals as of late MLBTR Writers! Don’t burn yourself out though.
Truly you guys are killing it!
Humpty Dumpty is having a make or break year. Victor Robles is already broken.
In 2018, Victor Robles was MLB’s # 6 overall prospect, Soto was # 29. I thought both would be perennial All-Stars. I thought Soto would be the better of the two, but that both could be top ten in MVP voting for many years in a row. I guess being 50% correct is OK, but wow is Victor Robles a surprise and a disappointment.
Hopefully he has a solid year at the plate in 22 and simply needed time to develop but a big red flag remains with every player whose best offensive production was in 19 when the ball was juiced.
Those who are so sure about prospect ratings and the crown of “can’t miss” should be humbled by the history of Robles and Soto. It runs even deeper than what you cited.
I can remember a point earlier in their history where there was a lot of (fan) talk about trading our second best prospect (Soto)….because we had Robles and he was a sure thing and Soto was good, but probably not great!!!!! Everyone was wrong…as they are a good deal of the time when it comes to baseball talent (not just prospects).
Good point. And among GMs and fans Robles would have been untouchable in trade talks. Look now. His career looking like a big disappointment.
The Pirates wanted him even up I believe for McCutcheon after the 2017 season.The thinking was that Cutch could assist in winning a WS.
The Nats turned it down cold turkey.
The Pirates got Reynolds instead.Nuff said.
I think that the Pirates should loop back if the Nats are amenable now.He is still young.
I wonder whether he has tried to overcompensate once Soto had proven to be a better player.
Off topic… with the lockout, are players still subject to PED testing? If not, what’s stopping them from getting ready for the season by trying some PED’s?
Wait this is a good question… ask it in the next chat!
What benefit would this really have ?
It could help a player heal quicker or bulk up, but eventually when they get back off, the physically positive impacts will deteriorate pretty quickly and wouldn’t necessarily benefit their performance
The benefit is if they are injured or want to recover from an intense workout faster.
But I see this as not different than the off-season. I am unaware of any off-season testing.
testing starts when they get to camp.. not that that means anything.. with the claimed part per trillion ” accuracy” on identifying derivatives… they could have gotten the positive test from being at a gym with users who sweated on the equipment they were using… and absorbed it thru their skin without knowledge.. https://www.wsj.com/articles/baseball-players-are-testing-positive-for-a-50-year-old-east-german-steroid-they-cant-explain-why-11597845610
So question for you or any one.
If a player used it to heal faster from an injury, would you mark them with the cheater tag if they stopped using before playing?
I’ve always thought the full ban of certain PEDs was a bit shortsighted. The nba has been exploring the use of HGH to help players heal from major injuries faster.
Andrew Benintendi syndrome: Speedy, modest power-hitting outfielder tries to add strength after winning a ring and regresses in every single metric
I’d love to see what the Giants coaching staff could do with Victor Robles.
As a Dodger fan I would not
Possibly speed his development as a good fielding, weak hitting 4th outfielder? Gabe Kapler’s magic coconut juice has its limits.
This dude is a pop out machine. At least if he made decent or put it on the ground he could use his wheels but na, try to go yard and pop up every AB
Decent contact*
Sounds like another Ender Inciarte?
Your thinking of the recent Inciarte but from 2016-18 , ( beginning 3 years with Braves) Ender was quite a good CF. All star in 2017 with over 200 hits and gold glove each of those seasons.
its comparing apples to tomatoes.. like comparing a DH to a catcher….. if I were comparing players.. I’d do it position by position.. it would be a more accurate picture of the player..
Unless he explodes in camp, he’s already their fourth outfielder.
What happened to the load more button on mobile?
what load more button?
Robles did post a .936 OPS over his 93 PA with Rochester,
=================================
But he retained a 26/7 K/W, which is what is holding him back.
Victor can’t hit major league pitching. I can’t either. That is all.
Change of scenery,obviously.Constantly being compared to his teammates and he couldn’t replicate success at the plate.He has great instincts with the glove but he runs tentatively or scared to make a mistake.He needs to have fun again and start enjoying the game more.Stinking thinking can ruin your happiness.Mechanism on,couldn’t be that simple rt?
I would let him rot in AAA for the full year unless he starts putting up video game numbers down there. Either that or trade him.
It’s tough for a team, any team, to give up on a 65FV rated player. The Nats aren’t supposed to be good this year so it wouldn’t hurt giving him playing time to see if he can figure it out.
That said, he sure would look good as the Jays 4th.
Exit velocity and hard hit rate can be a bit deceiving. Make a lot of contact, choke up a bit, put the ball in play and let your speed take over. That will definitely hurt the average exit velo number but not everyone needs to mash the ball to be effective.
I’m shocked at his stolen base percentage and glove work in recent years. I generally think speed doesn’t slump, but I know that’s wrong.
“His lack of production in 2020-21 meant that he is projected for a modest $1.7MM in 2022”: I am entering my age 61 season, give me $750K and I GAURENTEE you I will out-perform this toad. I can play as many games a season as he averaged, I will get solid singles, I will play MUCH BETTER CF, I will not steal bases. He is like Taylor Trammell now in Seattle; all hype, saw him in Daytona, my sister plays better than him, he must be related to someone or have “pictures”, like we all know Danny Espinosa MUST HAVE HAD.
Give this man a contract!! ;o)