The Nationals had a high-profile teardown this past July. The biggest splash sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers, while other notables like Kyle Schwarber, Yan Gomes and Daniel Hudson were flipped to contenders. Almost buried amidst that flurry was a lower-profile swap announced less than an hour before the deadline: acquiring outfielder Lane Thomas from the Cardinals for veteran starter Jon Lester. While that trade didn’t grab nearly as many headlines as some of the Nats’ other moves, the early returns look very promising.
Thomas has been around for a few seasons, but he never got an extended look with St. Louis. Between 2019-21, he struggled to a .172/.289/.336 line across 142 scattered plate appearances. Generally regarded by prospect evaluators as a fourth outfield type and turning 26 years old in August, it’s easy to understand why the Cardinals’ front office was willing to make him available. Yet Thomas picked up everyday run on a depleted Washington roster down the stretch, putting up quietly excellent numbers.
Over 206 plate appearances in the nation’s capital, the former fifth-round pick posted a .270/.364/.489 slash line, hitting seven home runs and stealing four bases. He spent the bulk of that time in center field, playing well enough to supplant former top prospect Víctor Robles on the depth chart. That offensive output was 27 percentage points above the league average, by measure of wRC+. More encouragingly, it was largely backed up by strong plate discipline and batted ball metrics.
During his end-of-season run, Thomas demonstrated an enviable combination of patience, bat-to-ball skills and power on contact. The right-handed hitter had an extreme willingness to work deep counts, a continuation of a trend he’d shown in St. Louis. Thomas swings far less often than most at pitches both inside and outside the strike zone, a plan of attack that allows him to draw plenty of walks but also puts him at risk for his share of strikeouts. Yet he kept the punch outs manageable during his time in Washington by making contact on a robust 82.4% of his swings (about six percentage points higher than the league mark).
That patience and contact frequency gave Thomas a strong floor from an on-base perspective, but his contact authority was particularly impressive. The Tennessee native had an average exit velocity of 91.7 MPH, more than three ticks harder than the 88.1 MPH league average. According to FanGraphs, he made hard contact on 45.1% of his batted balls with the Nats. The average MLB hitter (excluding pitchers) had a 32.5% hard contact rate in 2021.
That’s a rare set of skills, even in a limited sample of work. Among the 463 players with at least 100 plate appearances, only sixteen managed a hard contact rate north of 40% while striking out in fewer than a quarter of their trips to the dish. Other than Thomas, every player in that group posted a wRC+ of 122 or higher (indicating they were at least 22 percentage points more productive than average offensively). Removing Thomas’ poor 58 plate appearances with the Cardinals early in the season puts him right among that very impressive list of names, both from a results and process perspective.
That’s not to say Thomas is absolutely an elite hitter now, or even that the Cardinals made a mistake in giving him up. Lester was a reliable source of decent innings down the stretch, helping St. Louis to a fantastic second-half run to the postseason. And Thomas needs more than two months of strong performance to cement himself as a core member of the Nats’ future.
His first couple months in a Washington uniform couldn’t have gone much better, though. At the very least, he’s earned an extended opportunity to try to cement himself alongside Juan Soto in the long-term outfield. The Nationals are likely to take a step back in 2022 as they audition younger players like Thomas, but they prioritized near-MLB returns during their deadline sell-off and aren’t about to embark on a rebuild while Soto is under club control. Washington may need some things to fall into place to be realistic contenders in what should be a competitive NL East by 2023. Thomas settling in as a productive regular would be one those pluses, and he’s started off on the right foot with his new club.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Nats got the best of the deal. Lester gave St.L some meaningful innings but can’t be counted on to do it again. Let’s see what Lane’s ceiling is.
“The Nationals are likely to take a step back in 2022”. What they are going to take 6th place?
Yes, the NL East will be receiving a new team in 2022, the Delaware Clams!
“His first couple months in a Washington uniform couldn’t have gone much better, though.” Uh what? He hit 7 home runs in 200 abs. Wtf are you talking about?
That’s a 20 homer pace from a guy who hit 14 doubles in the time frame as well. Considering his track record, it quite literally “couldn’t have gone much better.”
Literally, it could have gone incredibly better. But maybe you don’t understand how language works.
He had a 127 wrc+ while being a 25 year old CF and a plus runner. They got him basically for free. What do you want from him?
2003 Barry Bonds apparently.
According to the writer.
I think this guy is a 4th outfielder, personally
Sure, because home runs are all that matters anymore, right?
Came here to say exactly this, suffer. Certainly a bad take.
No just the most important thing. Unless this game is not about scoring anymore?
I hope you are going to share all of those cherries you are picking, smytds
Plus 14 doubles, two triples, and 27 walks. No, he’s not another Juan Soto, but compared to expectations, it was a mighty impressive run.
It was a good run. Could have gone a lot better.
Sure, he could have batted 1.000 with 206 homers.
Bro, you literally know NOTHING about what constitutes a good ball player! The kid hit at a .270+ clip, showed decent power (that is extra base power, not just HRs) and played great defense with OK speed on the base paths. To get all of that for a pitcher that is bout to hit the rocking chair? That’s a win for WASH chief. Maybe you should look up a few metrics other than the mighty HR before dogging a player that is becoming a decent regular in MLB.
Exactly! For the love of Baseball, can we please forget the launch angle! Sure we need home runs but but a base hit, walk then a double is statically more likely! And scores more runs!
I wasn’t dogging him, bro. It was a good trade for WAS. I’m glad Nationals fans have something to be excited about.
I remember a few years back being convinced that Victor Robles would be a star. Guess that I was wrong.
You weren’t alone. He’s got all the tools. I think the problem is between his ears. I wish he could work his way out of it.
Based on what he looked like in his limited time in St. Louis, Thomas has the exact same problem. Made one mistake and it ruined him for weeks at a time, he had zero confidence and it showed.
Yeah I was wrong on that one myself. Thought we were getting something similar to Ketel with less power. Sometimes they just don’t pan out. Still think he could string together a solid career.
You’re not alone, Manny. He’s got incredible foundational tools and I believe he will put it together. This is precisely why I am an advocate for the Yankees allowing Florial / Dunham to play when Hicks went down (inevitably goes down again). Same goes for their IF, although I stand by the fact they need to fill C & SS with a competent person (Story, DeJong).
He was considered a better prospect than Juan Soto and I never could understand why. HBP’s inflated his obp.
Recent history says if the Cardinals offer an outfielder you should say yes.
Does this extend to Grichuk and Piscotty?
For what went the other way, yes.
Exactly. Grichuk is what he is, which is roughly a league average player. Every team needs those guys. The problem with him is that he is overpaid for the production he brings.
Grichuck hasn’t been terrible for Toronto. Piscotty has had injuries and was only traded to Oakland to be near his dying mother. Not really sure what his mental state is knowing that that is the only reason he was on the team to start with
That’s horrible, man. I couldn’t imagine trying to play through that. It has to impact him whether he admits it or not.
His mental state was grateful at the time. I remember at the time that the “So he could be close to home in order to take care of his mom” situation was mentioned often and was even at least a part of the reason he went there.
I had no idea Victor Robles was as bad as he was last year. Did not think a premium defensive OF could receive a negative WAR
The thing is his defense hasn’t been premium. In 2019 it was, but he hasn’t replicated that since. Everything has catered for him since then. It isn’t just a learning curve at this point. He has either something going on physically or mentally. Hope he gets right, because he could be dynamic if he does.
He is a total pop-up machine and pretty much only makes soft contact. At least if he hit liners or grounders he could use his wheels but he just hits it straight up
Hmmm, maybe Dave Martinez should make him do push-ups every time he hits the ball in the air
He hit a foul ball out of the stadium to the left of the left field foul pole. If he could straighten that out a little he’d have some power.
Pop-ups = launch angle. Back to basics hitting, Drive the ball, and with his speed, who cares if it’s grounders -better than a lazy fly, unless runners are on and less than two outs. It’s all these guys and their high- launch-angle swing paths. It’s ingrained in hitting coaches, who in turn drill it into players, who needlessly pop the ball up far more than they need to instead of driving th they should with contact.
@IBackTheNats- Robles had a 42% GB rate, 23% fly ball rate, 23% line drive rate, and 11% pop up rate.
The real issue doesn’t seem to be the type of batted ball, but how weak of contact he makes, with only a 2.6% barrel rate and average exit velo of 84 MPH. Those fall into the 6th and 1st percentile, respectively.
Everyone not playing in Houston who can outrun them teams catcher should have to do push-ups for every. Pop-up and fly ball to the warning track
Preaching my sermon!
where that oft used term that goes like this. thoughhe won’t be able to continue this output….
Isn’t Lane Thomas a retail clothing store for plus-sized women or is it a high end furniture store?
That’s his side business from Baseball.
No that’s lane Bryant.
Soto Lane Bryant could quietly make a nice plus-sized OF.
could Thomas be a late round sleeper pick in Fantasy? thoughts?
You could probably wait and just pick him up off waivers a few weeks into the season. Buy you a few weeks to see if he’s worth the roster spot. I could see drafting Thomas as injury insurance if you see a higher profile OF you like sliding in the draft because he will be starting the season on the IL or something though.
Yea, I’m feeling very cocky with outfielders, after stealing Mullins and Reynolds in the free agent pool last season.
For real, or Tauchman v 2?
Bit of a puffed up article me thinks with a lot of hyperbole. Hope the kid works out. He has some potential.
Can he change his last name to Staley and make Thomas his middle name? That would be rad.
Things must be pretty bleak in Washington to be writing 3 paragraphs about the possibility of Lane Thomas being a starting CF’er. Yikes.
Not particularly bleak, there’s just nothing going on to talk about, I’m looking forward to seeing what moves Rizzo is able to make. It could be really an interesting team in the new season.
The trade was probably a break even thing for 2021. Lester provided what STL needed at the time and Thomas filled in quite well for Washington. In the long run, STL loses out for 2022 because Lester is gone and Thomas is coming back. Thomas is what STL needs next year to support the outfield. Go figure. I hope Thomas does well in 2022.
They have Nootbaar and 3 very good young outfielders. He had no path to playing time
JFactor – Agreed.
Very happy with what we saw from Lane Thomas in 2021. Hope he can continue next season, because Robles is a bust.
Thomas was given opportunities in STL, but on a perennial contender, a player has to seize those opportunities quickly. The pressure isn;’t there in Washington, and may be the right fit for him.
This is the kind of trade St. Louis will make any day of the week. They are a club that preaches fundamentals and love pitching reclamation projects…..to my way of thinking lester has considerably more upside than thomas; thomas is another grichuk and St. Louis knows this and lester can regain his form to be an all-star and cy young candidate. ala carpenter. slow news day at mlbtr.
Lester is now a free agent