In a Monday mailbag, Dennis Lin of The Athletic poured cold water on pre-lockout reports that the Padres had targeted Nick Castellanos to fill an outfield/DH vacancy, but he did suggest the club might enter the sweepstakes for Japanese slugger Seiya Suzuki when free agency resumes. While fitting Suzuki into their payroll might require finding a taker for at least a portion of the salary due to Eric Hosmer or Wil Myers on the trade market, principal owner Peter Seidler has indicated the club’s budget has at least a bit of room for growth, though this could depend on luxury tax provisions in the new CBA (the Padres slightly exceeded the threshold last season, and the previous deal included escalating penalties for repeat offenders). The longtime Hiroshima Toyo Carp outfielder, who might offer the highest bang-for-the-buck potential among remaining free agent outfielders, won’t command nearly the salary sought by Castellanos or Kris Bryant (MLBTR projects Suzuki will sign for five years and $55MM). Including projections for arbitration-eligible players, the Padres are presently on the hook for just shy of $199MM in 2022 salary (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource).
Though the Giants and Mariners appear to be the industry favorites to sign Suzuki, Padres fans have learned never to put anything past GM and president of baseball operations A. J. Preller, particularly given Seidler’s repeated willingness to green-light moves that commit the club to significant years and dollars. As Lin notes, the Padres had only three above-average lineup regulars (Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jake Cronenworth) in 2021. Suzuki’s bat is hardly a sure thing — Friars fans will note the significant adjustment difficulties of KBO import Ha-Seong Kim in 2021, though the versatile infielder did provide significant value with his glove — but his career .315/.414/.541 line at Japan’s highest level (.317/.433/.539 in 2021) offers plenty to dream on.
A few other Padres notes as we wait out the (rather bleak) CBA negotiations:
- In the same mailbag, Lin discussed the Padres’ closer situation, which remains unsettled following the departure of 2021 NL saves leader Mark Melancon to the Diamondbacks. Drew Pomeranz is the obvious choice for a ninth-inning role, but he’s coming off surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon that ended his 2021 season in August. Lin notes that both Emilio Pagan and the recently signed Robert Suarez have experience in the role, but Pagan had a less-than-stellar 2021 (4.83 ERA, 5.22 FIP) and all of Suarez’s 68 career saves came in Japan, where he’s played since 2016. Should the Padres no longer view him as a starter, Dinelson Lamet could also be an option, though new manager Bob Melvin may prefer to use him in a multi-inning role. In any event, Lin expects the Padres to address lineup questions before turning to the bullpen. They could turn to one or several of low-cost options with histories of big-league success, a list that includes Brad Hand, Chris Martin, Archie Bradley, Adam Ottavino, Sergio Romo, Yusmeiro Petit, Mychal Givens, Sean Doolittle, Pedro Strop, Richard Rodriguez, and Tyler Clippard.
- Consensus top-10 prospect CJ Abrams, who missed the second half of the 2021 season after suffering a broken tibia and torn MCL in late-June infield collision and had recently dealt with shoulder issues, has been cleared to resume baseball activities, reports Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Prior to the injury, the 21-year-old shortstop compiled a .296/.363/.420 batting line in a 42-game sample at Double-A San Antonio. As he’s not yet on the Padres’ 40-man roster, Abrams is not affected by the lockout and could play in mini-camp games in short order. Though he’s certain to begin 2022 in the minors, Abrams is a potential candidate for a late-season call-up should his bat continue to show life in the upper minors, particularly if Fernando Tatis Jr.’s shoulder issues persist or manager Bob Melvin revisits plans to deploy Tatis in the outfield.
The only way I see Suzuki is being a good fit for the mariners, is if he can play a decent center field.
I agree.
Also, happy Black History Month to everyone.
A dude named CravenMoorhead saying “Happy BHM” can’t make this stuff up ahahahhaah
Nobody sees him as a MLB CF.
Trading Hosmer should be seen as a high priority for the Padres, before the conclusion of this coming season. After that his 10 and 5 rights kick in, and they will surely be stuck with his nearly $40 million in salary after that point.
Also, and I previously mentioned this in a chat, I think the Padres should trade for Kimbrel. They can send Myers to CHW which fills their RF hole, and a decent pitching prospect. Some money may have to change hands too, but this would solve a need for both the Padres and the White Sox.
Trading Hosmer might seem a bit problematic but I think with the right prospects thrown in the Padres can unload him on another team (granted they also pick up some of his salary).
Also, Happy Black History month everyone.
As we can see from the article the Padres have many options for closer. They have 1 option for RF 0 for LF. How does trading their only starting corner OF for another reliever help the Padres? They would even be losing a couple hundred grand on that deal.
Because none of those options for closer are particularly inspiring…and Wil Myers isn’t exactly hitting the cover off the ball. I think if they really want to catch up with the Giants and Dodgers, they need to solidify the back end to make up for losing Melancon.
There are plenty of corner outfield free agents still available out there: Conforto, McCutchen, Pillar, Soler. If they would rather hold Myers, they could go for a free agent closer if they really wanted to…there are plenty of names listed above. But going with an internal option, sounds like a terrible move.
The Padres already need an OF. They need a LF. If they do your trade they save zero money and need 2 starting corner OF. Which is cheaper?
The Padres NEED 2 starting OF for 2023. They don’t need another closer option.
Wil Myers’ bat isn’t a huge concern. His defense has really tailed off.
Last year, in only 500 plate appearances, Myers hit 17 homers and hit .256/.334/.434. OPS+ of 113. Not fantastic, but not a problem either. Only 118 starts. I wonder why he didn’t play more?
@jarvis, again you make it sound like the closing situation is settled. That’s a huge problem. I don’t disagree that they need help in the corner outfield spots. Maybe they can find a way to pick up someone like Kimbrel without trading Myers. However this trade will save them money, about $6.5 million would be saved this year, plus another $1 million next year when his team option is bought out. Not a lot, but that may be money better off spent to help spend on an upgrade. Additionally, looking ahead, the Padres have Robert Hassell who should be arriving in 2023 to hopefully take one of the corner spots.
So maybe they just hold Myers..wait for Hassell, and pick up only one corner outfielder this year, and one next year.
But I don’t think it will matter who is in the corner spots at the end of the day, if they don’t have someone who can lock down the 9th inning for them.
YOU may be worried about the closer situation but the Padres aren’t. They have already made a several signings and trades for relievers. They already had several high-quality relievers. Their LF is is their only only open starting position. Yet you propose to trade from an area of serious weakness(COF) to add to a position that is already a plus(RP)? No.
Fine, maybe the Padres aren’t. Maybe they feel fine with Pomeranz or Suarez as the closer. But with a closer by committee/patchwork job in the back end, you’re setting yourself up for an earlier postseason exit. As the Braves showed last year, you can have a patchwork outfield and make it work if the rest of your offense is good. But without shoring up your 9th inning, you’re going to lose games and not win a title. But maybe the Padres aren’t worried about that in 2022….and if that’s the case, throw this all out the window. Because these are moves if they want to win today.
Closer for the World Series Champion Atlanta Braves Will Smith:
mlb.com/player/will-smith-519293
Padres 2021 relievers:
mlb.com/padres/roster/depth-chart
rotochamp.com/baseball/TeamPageBullpen.aspx?TeamID…
Javia135
YOU may be worried about the closer situation but the Padres aren’t.
===================================
Who is their closer going to be?
Welcome to 2022 where closer by committee is a thing. You dont need a set closer these days. The closer should be whoever matches up against the hitters best.
Foreign Substance
Welcome to 2022 where closer by committee is a thing.
===============================================
But most teams still have a primary closer. For example, Melancon had 39 saves for SD last year, so it doesn’t look like the had a committee.
Who will be your primary closer?
I disagree with that. You need someone who can come in the 9th and slam the door. Look at the last 5 World Series matchups. All of those teams had a set closer (except the Rays, but the Rays generally go against the norm).
Maybe by the time teams go to the World Series, roles may change (like the on the Dodgers of 2020). But successful teams have someone that can close it down on a regular basis.
@JoeBrady
Do you think Melancon was just given the closer job last year? He wasn’t. He was brought in to compete with Keone Kela, Drew Pomeranz and Emilio Pagan. He won. Someone else will this year. Did you think Kirby Yates and Brad Hand were closers when the Padres picked them up? No. They were failures.
Personally I think Pomeranz will be the Padres next closer. The guy with an ERA below 2.00 since he became a reliever.
Their name is closer by committee.
Only thing that seemed to be stopping a healthy Pomeranz from closing the last couple years was Tingler.
Kenley Jansen in San Diego? I wonder if…..
@duffys … The ninth inning won’t matter if we don’t get some starting pitching depth. Having to use 5+ pitchers per game is not a recipe for success, and neither is using castoffs and AA guys to avoid having two bullpen games every five days.
Javia:
I agree completely. Myers and Hosmer turned out to be bad deals. But the Padres are even worse off trading them for a closer who might be elite or might be horrible.
There are plenty of teams that would trade something for Myers if the Padres eat some money. But with a DH, Myers and Hosmer are among the Padres best nine bats and if healthy, both should play in 75%+ of the Padres’ games.
Here is their lineup if I was manager:
1. Trent Grisham in center leading off.
2. Tatis, Jr. at shortstop hitting second.
3. Machado at 3B hitting third.
4. Cronenworth at 2B hitting fourth.
5. Myers at RF or LF hitting fifth.
6. Hosmer at 1B hitting sixth.
7. Nola at catcher hitting seventh.
8. Profar/Abrams/Hassell in LF or RF hitting eighth.
9. Jorge Alfaro DH
Rotation: Darvish, Musgrove, Snell, Clevinger, Martinez. With injury risks, it is a myth that Padres have a “surplus” of starting pitching. the health of Tatis Jr. and the starting pitching will determine if this is a 80-win or 90-win team.
Closer: Pagan, Pomeranz or Lamet.
Padres needs to sign a bat, not trade one away. If that bat could play two or more outfield spots, it would help. A Tommy Pham reunion on a short-term contract? (Mazara and Ona seem unlikely to help.)
Padres should keep Abrams and Hassell. I would be ok with trading Campusano, Morejon or Baez. I have not seen MacKenzie Gore enough to have an opinion and he will turn 23 years old in three weeks..
Paddack too
Paddack had a forgettable 2021. If Darvish, Musgrove, Snell, Clevinger and Martinez are available on Opening Day, I have Paddack in middle/long relief. But I feel confident that someone among the first five will be injured (or still injured) by Opening Day and that Paddack will swoop in and join the rotation. I actually see him as a slight bounce-back candidate. Some have suggested trading Paddack but I definitely think he will be needed as the Padres try to play 125 games, 150 games whatever will be the 2022 regular season. Even more so if the playoffs are expanded and the Padres manage to be a wild card.
Cro is good, but he’s got no business hitting cleanup; bat him third with Manny in the 4-hole.
His negative trade value is of much greater concern than his 10-and-5 rights.
@harambe, I totally agree. I’m just saying once the 10 and 5 hit, it’ll be damn near impossible at that point.
Trading Hosmer is much easier said than done. Between his 10 team no-trade list and his drop off in production a top prospect will almost certainly have to be included. However, once Freddie Freeman signs the 1B market becomes drastically different so you never know…
He’s going to be tough to move. Think Scwarber could eventually become a FT 1b, Castellanos as well.
Speaking of Castellanos.. Typical Boras misread of the market looking at more years than any chance possible for him (8). Maybe not best of years with a strike/lockout looking eminent before he had a chance to sign trying this ploy.
Does he end up with just a 1y deal now, then go back as a to be 31yo for ’23 season?
JD Matinez got 5y, but had entire offseason and 1 team with interest. Think Boras made another boo-boo here.
Boras generally sets the market, not misreads it. There’s been more than a few studies over the years on how much more his players get compared to similar players with other agents. It’s significant. He also pushes the market higher for other players.
I don’t see Castellanos getting eight years, but if he ends up with five then he wins…biggly!
Keep in mind once there’s a new CBA, historically teams spend big because they know the financial guidelines for the next five years. We’ll also see teams who will want to get some positive news out there after a lousy offseason from the lockout.
I am looking forward to the explosion of activity with free agent signings and trades that will occur in a compressed time period after a couple months of nothing.
No one wants Hosmer unless Preller throws in a top prospect. He does that often so maybe it’s possible
So WHO would take Hosmer, if they threw in a top prospect? Also expecting the Pad’s eat abunch of the salary.
If the DH becomes universal quite a lot of teams.
Red Sox would make some sense if the Padres attach Campusano to Hosmers contract and take back Bradley Jr.
Red Sox would make some sense
============================
I doubt. In order to entice a team into trading for Hosmer, you really need an opening at 1B. Hosmer has a 102 OPS+ with SD, and everyone has a DH that can do that.
The 4 years is the real problem. With Myers, there will always be a team that needs a RF for one year. Then it is just a question of a couple million $$$. With Hosmer, every team in BB either has a 1B as good as him, or has a prospect as good as him.
Weathers and Hostetler to Texas for a bag of peanuts
I wish we could edit these; Wethers and Hosmer; dang autocorrect
You can. You have 5 minutes after posting to do so in fact.
Ya can! That’s what the lil clock under your comment once it’s posted is.
We already have an underperforming player from the AAAA Asian leagues (Kim) we don’t need another long term contract. Pads need to do the one and two year market like the Brewers and Giants have been so good at. There will be plenty of options and the Pads can also play Kim, Cronenworth, Nola, and if he can stay healthy Abrams in Outfield. I think they have closers in house too. Team health is the biggest need/question
Kim posted a 2.1 WAR. That is almost exactly league average. His bat was below average, but his defense was outstanding.
WAR? The guy could not hit a big league fastball. Period. Yes, his defense is exceptional, but you should spend more time watching him play than scouring fake stats.
I think the Padres will need to pony-up a massive prospect package to get rid of Hosmer, like CJ Abrams and Mackenzie Gore, or pay the remaining of his salary. Hosmer has hit .264/.323/.415 with a .316 wOBA, and 99 wRC+ since joining the Padres. Colin Moran, who the Pirates non-tendered, hit .269/.331/.419 with a .321 wOBA, and 100 wRC+ since joining the Pirates. Moran actually has the higher fWAR at 1.0 to Hosmer’s .6. Heck, Asdrubal Cabrera even has a higher OPS since 2019.
Doubt Padres move Abrams.
Hes either gonna play OF or SS.
Grisham LF Abrams CF Myers RF
Or Tatis Jr LF Grisham CF Myers RF
Their most expendable prospect is Luis Campusano. If theyre trying to move Hosmer hed be the one most likely to go.
If they wait a year itd cost less to move him when Hosmers contract converts to 3 years 39 mill. In the interim they should sign a platoon partner for him.
No such thing as an expendable 22 year old catcher. No one is blocking Campusano in San Diego. All of the catchers there are expendable. Either they are terrible or they are always injured.
There is when youre trying to move a contract like Hosmers
@outinleftfield There is if you have, say, a prime Buster Posey or Joe Mauer on your roster.
Problem is Hosmer gets 10-5 rights after this year which would make it even more difficult to move him then it is now.
It seems that BTV has CJ Abrams alone with $68.3 million in positive value while Hosmer has $50.7 million negative value. Now I hate BTV as much as the next guy, but in this case they are correct and you are way off.
baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-71822/
If you hate it so much why are you citing it?
Eric Hosmer: Not the 1B Pobres fans want, but the one they deserve.
Tatis isn’t going to the outfield. They won’t get Suzuki. He’s going to the Giants. Not paying for Castellanos either. Schwarber and Hand maybe. Can see Schwarber taking a three year with less in the first year combined with an increase in the luxury tax threshold.
Trading Hosmer is next to impossible? And I’m sure that’s what many people said about Jackie Bradley Jr
Bradley Jr. is only owed $11 million through 2022. Hosmer is owed $60 million for the next 4 years. It is much easier to move a one year deal only worth $11 mil compared to a 4 year deal that averages $15 mil a year.
Imagine thinking the two are comparable
Technically true. You can get rid of anyone. But if SD made the same trade, and got Renfroe, they would have to give the equivalent of Binelas & Hamilton, plus additional prospects that equal the additional ~ $40M that Hosmer will make.
“Suzuki’s bat is hardly a sure thing — Friars fans will note the significant adjustment difficulties of KBO import Ha-Seong Kim in 2021, though the versatile infielder did provide significant value with his glove — but his career .315/.414/.541 line at Japan’s highest level (.317/.433/.539 in 2021) offers plenty to dream on.”
Maybe it’s just me, but the wording/structure of this is weird. Why reference Kim’s poor triple slash and say he made up for it with defense when saying Suzuki isn’t a sure thing, then reference Suzuki’s NPB stats?
The two aren’t related, except for the fact they played in abroad and are Asian. NPB and KBO are not the same thing, so why just compare those two players because they are asian players signed by the padres? Maybe I’m seeing something that isn’t there, but I’ve never seen MLBTR compare triple slashes of South America players because they were from South America and on the same team.
Edit: I get transitions are difficult for anyone coming from a foreign league. Why not make it a separate sentence or paragraph, rather than combining them? Again, maybe it’s me reading too much into it. But that statement seems strange in structure/wording.
The point was about the transition from a foreign league and Kim is the recent comp for the Padres. I get how it seems like I made the comparison because both are Asian — not my intention and not my best writing!
And the defense thing was just to try to give Kim his due, because he did have value even though he didn’t hit a lick.
@Jame Hicks. Thanks for the response. I figured that is what you were going for with that, I hope I didn’t come off as accusatory. I just thought that part could be taken in the wrong way with how it was written.
I would have went with the wording below, not like it matters haha. Keep up the great work everyone at MLBTR!
“Suzuki’s career .315/.414/.541 line at Japan’s highest level (.317/.433/.539 in 2021) offers plenty to dream on, although his bat is hardly a sure thing at the MLB level. Friars fans will note KBO import, Ha Seong Kim, struggled mightily with the bat in 2021 (although he made significant contributions on defense).”
The KBO is way below NPB. And NPB is closer to AAA than MLB. Any comparisons or projections are virtually worthless.
Here is a fun game, name one contract currently on the Padres roster that any team would trade for without cash involved.
I’ll wait.
Fernando Tatis Jr
You sure? 14 years?
Yes, we’re sure Tatis would have a huge market. He’s young, talented and marketable. His AAV isn’t all that high for his talent level and his most expensive seasons are years out when inflation and overall salary increases will minimize impact. Basically, teams would be phoning saying which of our top prospects do we need to send to get Tatis.
You sure? 14 years?
====================
Yeah. I’m sure.
I’m not disputing his greatness, But if you guys think a contract that size is a slam dunk to move in the current MLB landscape you’re smoking crack. GM’s would probably have nightmares about how many times they heard “Giancarlo Stanton” in those negotiations.
Seager just got $325M/10 ($32.5M per. Tatis has ~ $340M/14 ($26M per). You’re basically paying the same for Tatis for 13 years, as you’d pay for Seager for 10 years, and Tatis is already the better player, and younger by almost 5 years.
IMO, Tatis is extremely valuable.
More than 25 out of 30 teams would agree to trade all three of their number 3, 4 and 5 prospects to acquire Tatis Jr. and his 14 year contract. The medical reviews might take a week the decision itself would take an hour.
Mike Clevinger
Adrian Morejon
Joe Musgrove
Lamet
Stammen
Johnson
Grisham
Cronenworth
Hill
Nola
That was fun. Hope you werent waiting too long.
Haha. It’s probably easier to name contracts teams wouldn’t want. Hosmer and Myers.
Darvish and Snell would be easy to trade with two years remaining. No need to take on salary, just a lesser return. But, still able to be traded without cash involved.
Teams wouldn’t want Profar, Pomeranz or Kim.
Even Pomeranz they would consider.
They would be easy to trade with prospects and cash
I meant contracts after team control.
Myers?
Hosmer?
You think anyone wants Machado at $210 million?
Kim?
Profar?
I suppose Stammen, Johnson & Pomeranz are pretty reasonable, but perhaps only because they are halfway through their deals
Move that goal post. Also majority of teams have “contracts after team control” theyd be unable to just salary dump somewhere and absolve themselves of any money owed.
My point was that the Padres have signed some pretty bad deals lately.
They had the second highest payroll in baseball last year and won 79 games. That’s pretty much my case I guess
And also yes on Machado. He just finished his age 28 season and is building a HOF career, already halfway to 500 career HRs. He just put up another 5 WAR season. Unless he has a collapse in production, he will opt out after his age 30 season. It will have been a very good contract for the Padres.
I’d pump the brakes on saying teams would take Machado. He was already building a HOF career when the Padres signed him and teams still adamantly refused to match the Padres’ offer. He’s now 3 years older with 3 of his prime years already burned. If I were a GM I certainly wouldn’t offer him more now than I did 3 years ago.
If Machado opts out in two more years I’ll agree it was a good deal. I certainly wouldn’t assume he is opting out though.
The Padres had more than their share of pitching injuries otherwise maybe they would have won an extra half a dozen games. But my take is that the padres have acquired pitchers that some of the additional injuries were to be expected.
It depends on if the Padres are winning when his opt out comes. He will opt out if we are not a playoff caliber team
@VegasSDfan That’s a lie. He will opt out based on money and money only.
Manny Machado.
The last thing the Padres need to be doing is exploring options that involve long term contracts and $$$. What kind of track history do they have that would make them think a 5 year contract to a foreign player is a good idea?
Kim was a train wreck last year. They don’t need more where that came from.
What they need is to actually get production from their own players. Wil Myers is a good enough player to endure one more year. Just get something out of him for god sake. The amount of dudes going there and underperforming is alarming.
Hopefully Melvin can fix it, or maybe he can clue ownership in on what a clown Preller is.
Kim was a league average player. Kim was a bad hitter and exceptional defensive player at multiple positions.
He was indeed exceptional on defense but he hit .202
You simply can’t put him in the lineup at that clip, Especially when it means sitting Machado, Tatis or Cronenworth todo it.
Maybe he can turn it around in year two, but as it sits its $28,000,000 basically taken out in the street and set on fire.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa and even Nick Ahmed are above Kim. Kim is a backup who plays great defense, filled in ok for Tatis when Fernando was injured.
Typical Padre fan dude hits .202 he’s league average
I agree Padres should keep Myers and Hosmer. only if the Padres by mid-season are out of contention for playoffs should they trade Myers. If playoffs are expanded, I think Padres will be in the hunt for a wild card, they may miss it, but by less than in 2021.