The Cubs have a decision to make regarding Willson Contreras, who’s heading into his final season of club control. Contreras is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an arbitration salary in the $8.7MM range this year. Amidst an organizational reboot, the Chicago front office finds themselves in something of an awkward spot with their longtime catcher.
Chicago signed Yan Gomes, perhaps the best catcher in this year’s free agent class, to a two-year contract in November. That seemed to position Contreras as one of the likeliest trade candidates around the league on-paper, but there’s been no real indication the Cubs have shopped him. That could indicate they’re not looking to move on from Contreras, although they’ve also not yet broached the topic of extending the relationship.
Speaking with reporters (including Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic) yesterday, the 29-year-old backstop said the organization and his reps at Octagon haven’t discussed a potential long-term deal. “No, there haven’t been any talks. I’m good with it” he said. “They know what they’re doing, they know what’s best for the team. I’m here because I love my team. Whatever is going to happen is going to happen.” Contreras went on to indicate he’d be willing to have those discussions. “I’m always open. You know me, I’m not focused on that. I’m focused on having a good year, having fun with my team and trying to win.”
The Cubs stripped down a good portion of the 2016 World Series winning club at last summer’s trade deadline, moving Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Báez. Those departures kicked off what one might consider a new era of Cubs baseball, but president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer maintained there were no plans for a full rebuild. Hoyer, GM Carter Hawkins and the rest of the front office have largely backed up those assertions this winter. In addition to Gomes, they also signed Marcus Stroman to a three-year deal, added Andrelton Simmons on a one-year pact and claimed Wade Miley off waivers. They don’t seem done, as Hoyer told reporters (including Jesse Rogers of ESPN) this morning they’re still on the hunt for pitching help.
Even in the event the Cubs are trying to hang around the periphery of contention this season, there’s a case to be made for moving Contreras. Gomes is a capable #1 catcher in his own right; getting both players regular reps probably involves Contreras seeing a lot of time at designated hitter. He’s a good hitter, particularly in comparison to his peers at catcher, but he’s not the kind of elite bat for whom teams have been inclined to set aside the DH role.
Contreras has been an above-average hitter by measure of wRC+ in each of his six career seasons. Going back to the start of 2020, he owns a .239/.345/.429 line, numbers that check in nine percentage points above the league average. That’s markedly better than the .230/.307/.392 figure put up by catchers around the league, but it’s not elite middle-of-the-order output overall. Defensively, Contreras has typically been adept at throwing out attempted base-stealers, although he struggled in that regard last season. His pitch framing metrics, per Statcast, have checked in right around the league average over the past two years after he struggled mightily in that regard early in his career.
All told, the Cubs have to decide whether they view Contreras as a potential long-term building block. Recent free agent pickups notwithstanding, they’ve pared back payroll over the past twelve months. With only around $72MM in guaranteed commitments on the books in 2023 (per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource), the flexibility should be there for Chicago if they want to make a run at an extension.
Yet if the Gomes signing signaled a changing of the guard behind the plate on the North Side, Contreras could find himself switching uniforms over the coming weeks. If he doesn’t sign an extension, he’d be on track to hit free agency as one of next winter’s top available catchers — part of a group that could also include Gary Sánchez, Mike Zunino, Christian Vázquez and Max Stassi.
What?? EXTEND HIM, he wants to play for the Cubs, he’s stated that recently, we have the money. We have the means, he’s a all-star catcher with a high ceiling, he needs to be extended.
Don’t they ALL say they want to play for the team they’re on? I mean, what else are they going to say when asked that question. I’m sure in most instances, it is genuine. But what is always implicit in the response but is never said is (“…if they pay me top dollar”).
there are few players that say that and truly mean that. I remember Darelle Revis saying that every other year as a jet then try to hold out. Do i fault him for wanting to get paid top dollar No, but you cant really have it both ways. You “really” want to stay with the club you give back a little so they can keep you
Then there are players that truly want to stay with the team and the team kicks em to the curb. Daniel Murphy is a prime example of this. The man waited til there was no way the mets would even offer him a contract to sign with the Nationals as he was waiting on an offer from the mets. (YES I AM STILL PEEVED THE METS DIDNT SIGN HIM GOOD RIDDANCE WILPONS). He went on to win the mvp next season. Would he have been as good with the mets .. maybe maybe not but he definitely hit his stride from that mets crazy world series run
Hes never won an mvp
I was thinking that I didn’t remember Daniel Murphy winning an MVP. He finished second in the voting in his first year in Washington and that was his best finish.
A high ceiling? Isn’t he already at his potential? He’ll be 30 and has logged 550 games at catcher (with another 300 in the minors). Not disparaging him, but I don’t really see him getting much better than he already is. Catchers don’t age well and he’s played sparingly elsewhere.
35 will be when he really hits his stride as a catcher and his knees start showing signs of life.
Buster Posey is a example aging well, why can’t Conteras do that?
As always, we await developments.
Formerly Cubs: In your opinion, what’s the position of most valuable return for the Cubbies for Willson? Last year I read a few articles on both sides surmising they would want young controllable pitching & one suggested Torres. But, what’s your take as a Cub’s guy?
Ducky suggested Peraza, who’s nearly a MLB-ready SS and a top-100 global prospect. I think that’s certainly a fair trade value & seems like a position of potential need for the Cubs because of his excellent SS defense.
My proposal is still Jasson Dominguez to the Cubs for Wilson Contreras and Kyle Hendricks. Cubs want quality not quantity.
But my alternative proposal is what gets ignored. Cubs extend Contreras and trade Yan Gomes. If the Cubs keep and extended contreras for themselves, Yankees’ fans, would the Yankees give up a starting pitcher for Yan Gomes, and what do you think would be a fair exchange?
Whoa! Manny, brother, I think that is a very high ask from the Cubs. Granted, catching is at a premium, so the Cubs are driving the bus, but Cashman wouldn’t give Jasson up for 2 years of Olson, so he won’t for 1 of Contreras
imo, even though you included Hendricks (whom I happen to like a lot).
So I speak not to the fairness of your proposal, but rather to Cashman’s refusal to deal at all, and he’s said as much on more than one occasion.
If they traded Gomes, I wouldn’t mind him. In fact, out of the FA catchers in ‘21-‘22, Ducky & I discussed Gomes as the one Yankees should shoot for back in Sept/Oct. In terms of prospects, I think the Cubs would accept two or three SP from the Yankees, depending on their level. So, using the Yankees MLB prospect rankings, something like:
1) Yankees top 10 prospect & top 15 prospect, or;
2) 2-Yankees top 15 prospects & top 25 prospect
I think something in that range *could* get it done. But it really depends on how the Cubs perceive their pitching needs & how they value the Yankees prospects’ arms. I like Gomes though – he’s solid.
If you are right that they would not part with Jasson for Olson, then yes I am sure you’re right on Contreras.
How about Luis Medina and Randy Vasquez in return for Yan Gomes?
I still expect Rizzo to sign for three years with the Yankees.
Wow, you drive a tough trade, man. So, all cards, this one’s tough for me because: Medina is my personal favorite SP in the org. I think he has the highest upside and the most potential right now & his fastball is absolutely lights-outs (@ 102MPH).
That said, objectively, it’s just that, potential, so I don’t think what your suggesting is unreasonable. Vazquez is another pitcher that flourished in ‘21. Medina does still struggle with control, so there isn’t a guarantee he will start in the future either.
Anyway, yeah man, I think the Yanks are in a peculiar position and we have a pitching excess in the minors. For decent big league catching in a razor-thin market, and Gomes is decent imo, it would be worth it.
I like Rizzo for 3. I expected 4, but if he takes 3 or less that’s a win for the Yankees, imo. I’d rather have Freeman though, even at 6 because….well, it’s Freddie Freeman!
@MannyBeingMVP- Deivi Garcia and Randy Vasquez would be plenty for Willson Contreras. I don’t see the Yankees taking back Hendricks at this time. I’m sure the Cubs would have an interest in Domingo German or Michael King. Hendricks is a really good pitcher who is worth his contract, he could definitely be at least a #3 in the Yankee rotation.
@MVP- the Yankees have zero interest in Gomes. 1 year of Contreras will net the Cubs two pitching prospects in the Yankee farm system. Jasson Dominguez will not be traded anytime soon. He was never even offered for 2 years of Olson, so he’s not getting traded for only 1 year of Contreras. The Cubs would be wise to hold on to Hendricks.
@Manny I wouldn’t give up even close to that for either. Since when has Yan Gomes become this all star caliber catcher? He’s a backup with backup numbers and he’ll back up Contreras. The Yankees wouldn’t be looking to give up anyone from their top twenty prospects for either of those guys never mind Peraza or Dominguez. Yeah let’s trade a serious SS prospect for a soon to be 30 year old catcher with just okay numbers. He’s not even a great defender so I’m not sure what all the fuss is about. Gomes by the way is old in catching years in case that’s slipped everyone’s mind.
I agree Judge99. Everyone read the Gomes signing wrong. Catching is not at a premium like everyone suggests. It’s the same as it always has been. There are a few catchers with decent bats and maybe one or two with above average bats and the rest are defensive minded guys. It’s always been that way since I’ve been watching the game. Teams for the most part don’t get good production from that position. Good production from a catcher is calling a good game and playing good defense.
okay… now that… I would accept that deal.
“My proposal is still Jasson Dominguez to the Cubs for Wilson Contreras and Kyle Hendricks. Cubs want quality not quantity.”
@Yankee Clipper- Oswald Peraza will not be traded in a Willson Contreras deal. Alexander Vargas is a possibility though if the Cubs want a young shortstop. Luke Voit would interest the Cubs with his power. The Cubs need young pitching. German, King, Deivi and Vasquez would all interest them.
SS is one position where they have strong prospects in their system. They don’t need another. Outfield or pitching is what they need.
Any possible trade would need to send some sort of young catcher mlb ready or prospect back. We don’t need Torres, we have two young SS and 2B ready guys with Hourner and Madigral.
Wilson will be the Yankees starting catcher in the next few days. Just watch.
They’re not going to contend this season, and Willson is in his last year. He can bring a decent return.
Trade him.
They could contend this season, (not likely but look at the Giants for a great example of teams shocking everybody)
High ceiling? He’s 30…he’s not gonna get better.
But but Bilblical losses. Ricketts cant afford it
Didn’t the WS just miss out on a pick because they were too cheap to risk the QO on Rodon? Your schtick stopped being clever months ago.
Nah… he can easily afford it.
Why would they have extension talks when he’s going to be traded to the Yankees?
My thoughts exactly. Great minds…..
Bring back Rizzo: 3 yr/42 mil
Trade: Luke Voit to the Brewers for Jake Cousins
Trade: Peraza to Cubs for Contreras
What if rizzo wants 5 years and other teams are willing to give it to him?
Resort to violence.
@YourDreamGM
Well then I guess we won’t see Rizzo in pinstripes. If Voit goes down, it should be easy enough to play Torres at 2B and DJ at 1B. You see how that works?
Ducky: That’s pretty straightforward & would certainly work. Increase Higgy’s workload to keep Contreras healthy and his bat fresh.
I’m still hanging on to that single thread of hope there’s a Freeman / Contreras splash buried in Cashman somewhere.
“ Resort to violence”. Haha!
I used 3/42 as I believe that was the estimate here.
It was an attempt to use a projection we all have seen & had access to. It was an estimate of convenience. Not an absolute (of course.) If you see how that works.
@FSF I wouldn’t be anyone’s dream gm if I didn’t know how it works. I can see Rizzo getting more than 3 years. Kind of expect him to. And it won’t surprise me at all if the Yankees gave it to him.
I think that was the prediction here for Rizzo.
There’s been smoke around Voit to the Brewers for awhile now. From both sides & in varying iterations. Trade for Cousins works on BBTV & using common sense. Gives Cash another reliever & let’s him put the rotation on the back burner. He loves doing that. He can tell us about building his pitching staff “backwards” again. We all win.
Peraza is a pretty big overpay on BBTV but not in common sense. Contreras’ll cost. It’ll hurt. But with what Cashman has been doing that would be a helluva lineup, bullpen, & better starting pitching than we normally have.
I can live with that.
@YourDreamGM
You “wouldn’t be anyone’s dream gm” is absolutely correct.
@FSF check back in a few years. I am usually right.
@Ducky It very well could be 3 years. I don’t feel strong either way. Just not going to be surprised if it’s more than 3.
Why wait a few years? He’s going to sign within days/weeks! You don’t seem very aware for a “gm”.
As always, we await developments.
Yeah, I think I pegged Rizzo for 4/$60 or something in a similar AAV range, but 4 years. Or maybe 3 with a buy-out & player option on a 4th?
Perhaps the funniest post I’ve ever seen, Duck. I don’t like it. I love it.
Retire21: I’m his talent manager, don’t I get any credit?
DreamGM, it wouldn’t surprise me for the Yankees to go 4 years in order to drop the AAV on Rizzo.
@Ducky Buckin Fent- only 2 years, $32 million with a club option for a 3rd year for Rizzo. Voit to the Brewers or the Cubs are definitely an option, agreed. Peraza will not be traded for only 1 year of Contreras. Alexander Vargas is an option though. My Cubs need pitching. Deivi Garcia or Randy Vasquez comes to mind. A Voit for Hendricks trade would definitely help both teams. The Cubs could easily become a trading partner with the Yankees this season.
Ducky are you a Yankee fan or a Red Sox fan? Why in the world would you want to trade an up the middle prospect with a nice looking bat and serious speed on the basepaths for a 30 year old catcher with all around average skills? How about saving those type of prospects for someone that would make a bigger impact on your team or how about giving him a shot at being the everyday SS. These message boards are full of fans willing to give up so much for so little for no reason. Thank the baseball gods you’re not a GM.
Well a Yankee fan, sir.
Nice prospects are swell. They really are. But I am looking up Peraza…huh…doesn’t look like he has done anything in MLB. As in nothing.
Last season – however – Wilson Contreras put up 4.1 WAR. Not sure where the categorization of “average skills” comes from. We have a hole at catcher. Do you not see that? Are you a damn red sox fan or something?
Anyway.
Point is, I would spend my prospect capital on catching. It will be expensive. But I am the type of Yankee fan that wants to – ya know – win. A few of our fans are more interested in our farm system ranking. Which is neat or whatever. Everyone gets to fan their own way. I just have differing priorities.
@FSF If they give him a bloated contract that pays him into his late 30s it will make Cashman want him even more.
You really need more clever material.
I’m thinking they will trade Wilson considering they have Almya waiting that should be ready soon
Yankees are in win now mode, they have to stop hoarding those shortstops they have and get themselves this catcher, and then they’re set.
Mario I agree. This is my response to all who say we shouldn’t get a SS now because we have the “future SS” in our minor leagues. We want to win….now, right? So trade prospects now, and get people we need now to win now!
Of course I don’t want to drain the entire farm, but we can still keep Volpe and trade several others… it doesn’t have to be an ‘either / or’ proposition.
Cut it out with the ‘Yankees are in win now mode”.
They’re restructuring, waiting for the bad long-term contacts to get off the books, and waiting for some of their minor leaguers to come up.
It they were in “win now mode” they’d be trading their top prospects and taking on salaries of name veterans. They could have gotten Olsen, they wouldn’t trade the prospects necessary.
Yankees are always in win now mode. And they will be waiting awhile for the Stanton Cole contracts to come off the books.
Yes, I’ve heard they’re always in a “win now mode”…..
Hey, they haven’t been to a WS in 12 years. Do they have a Quality Control or Audit department? If not, I can explain it to them for $100k via a short email update.
The Yanks are ALWAYS in a “win now mode”. That’s why they make the playoffs virtually every year.
Sam.
You have no idea what you are talking about. You are just another Yankee troll. & not a good one. We all know it by now. FYI.
That’s what I was thinking. All their horrible contracts come off in 2030
Yeah Ducky, the trolls on this site are third rate at best.
…and then what happens? They turn into the A’s in the post season.
They just took on Donaldsons salary. 25 mill for the next two years. Which contract are they waiting on exactly to expire? Their core players are all on long term deals. Cole, Stanton, DJ, Hicks, Judge will be resigned most likely. I’d be shocked if they let him walk, yet pay Stanton ? That makes no sense to me. I think when you look at the roster construction, and where they are contractual, I think they don’t have much of a choice then to compete and be the best they can be.
It’s up to them on what they’re willing to give up to add to the big league club, me personally I think if they added a catcher like Contreras it would make that team that much better, at a position they need.
Donaldson’s salary will be off the books when the prospects start coming up. And the chances of him playing 90% of Yankee games are a bit lower than the US Congress balancing the budget by then.
As for those contract you noted above…..
Allow me to repeat – waiting for the bad long-term contacts to get off the books, and waiting for some of their minor leaguers to come up.
Let me put it another way……
Other then maybe Cole, do you know of any MLB team that will take those contracts on in trade today unless the Yankees sweeten the pot?
Your comments are so naive I don’t even know where to begin. Virtually all large contracts are difficult to move once they are signed. First off, the team that signed him was the one willing to pay the most. So right out of the gate, no other team is going to take them unless the team “sweetens the pot”.
On top of which, every year that goes by, that player gets older making the contract even more difficult to move because the best part of the contract is behind them with the passage of time. It isn’t just the Yankees. Try moving Seager next year. Or try moving Trout right now. Or Miggy or Cano and on and on. Strasburg’s extension hasn’t even started and trying moving him at 50 cents on the dollar. Do you get it now?
I think he’s referring to not going “all in” and still trying to retool while they go along. But the Yankees will be doing that regardless. So I understand Samuel, but doesn’t make much sense to me.
They’ll obviously will try to replace the vets who will come off the books in a couple of years with youngsters, but if the team is good enough, they can move the prospects for win now pieces. It’s difference of perspectives.
He doesn’t think they’re in contention of a World Series, me personally I think the Yankees are extremely talented, especially with that last trade they’ve made. Maybe a starting catcher like a Contreras, possibly another starter at the trade deadline, or if Severino bounces back in a big way, then some relief help additions? Then who’s to say the Yankees cant truly compete for a World Series. And to me, at end of the day, that’s all it’s about, trying to win it all.
They can try to win yet hold on to prospects while doing so, which is fine, or give the big league club the absolute best chance to be the best they can be .. Really depends on how much one believes in this team I guess.
Brilliant points FSF. I really enjoy what pretty much everyone wrote in this thread, EXCEPT Sam I am. I enjoyed reading your well-thought out posts, EXCEPT Samuel‘s. And, you all have very sound perspectives with valid points on the Yankees challenges & approach to them EXCEPT………. wanna guess?
If only a digital troll jail existed, that would be cool. We could be like, Sammy! You’re under digital arrest for trollism! And you’re sentenced to extra for really bad trollism…
Soon to be another ex-cub
Contreras is a very good catcher, but he has a fairly extensive injury history (not uncommon among catchers), and turns 30 in less than two months. Catchers above 30 don’t get better, and don’t get healthier. Giving him a big extension would be foolish, and the Cubs’ front office knows it.
it would be the opposite of foolish, they should be extending him and rebuilding around him. ever hear of Yadier Molina? STL should have gotten rid of him years ago I suppose?
So you’re saying Willson Contreras is the same as Yadier Molina.
Yes because all catchers age as well as Yadi
Yadi has not posted a season above 1.8 WAR (or 2.5 on Fangraphs) in five years and he’s had only one such season since he turned 31.
Yadi ages 24-30 (seven seasons): 26.7 WAR, $36.275 million in contracts
Yadi ages 31-38 (eight seasons): 14.4 WAR, $127 million in contracts
So yes. St. Louis actually might have been better off if they got rid of him before 2014 and spent that money on other players.
Yeah, Yadi’s no good.
They should have traded him for Gary Sanchez years ago. Maybe kept Luke Voit instead.
We’ll, he isn’t very good now. That is the point, not how great he was in 2006.
@Mario93, @Yankee Clipper- Absolutely no reason the Yankees can’t put a package together to land Willson Contreras and Kyle Hendricks.The Cubs need young arms like Domingo German and Deivi Garcia. Luke Voit and Miguel Andujar can give the Cubbies power bats in their line-up. Michael King is a nice arm for their bullpen.
Yes, it’s a pity they released Frazier. The Cubs happily would have traded their best players if he were in the package…..(ahem)….oh, wait…..
P.S. The Yankees need pitching. Why would they trade “young arms like Domingo German and Deivi Garcia”? And they need a 1B – why would they trade Voit? And Andujar can DH for them! Michael King can take over when Chapman leaves.
LOL
Cubs will want prospects. Not arbitration players. Maybe Deivi though. They could use another pitcher. Cubs are going to surprise people with their young hitters they have.
Captain Judge: I think he’s the most likely catcher to go to the Yankees at this point.
Captain, ignore Samuel, he’s a Yankees troll. Constant with Yankees fans. And he’s always the smartest guy in the room. Once you call him out a couple times he will mute you because he can’t handle it.
for that package you are looking more the walker/mccann pitching catching duo than contreras / hendricks
Gotta go more premium like Austin Wells and one of the short stop prospects.
Cubs have no use for German who’s probably doesn’t haven’t controllable years.
The Cubs need guys with 4-5 years of controllability. Cubs are a ways off from competing. And preferably they want guys who can be in double A another year and a half.
@joemoes- your wrong, German has a few years of control. I’m sure the Cubs might have some interest in Alexander Vargas a shortstop prospect. The Cubs are my favorite NL team. I watch them all the time and they need pitching. Deivi Garcia and Randy Vasquez are really needed more than Vargas.
Domingo German will be 30 in August. In addition, he currently has a shoulder injury and Boone says he probably will not be ready to start the season.
No one wants Andujar, I thought this was understood at this point
Must be a typo. They listed Sanchez as a C.
He will sign with the Cubs for a 4y/$78M extension, staying with the Cubs thru 2026.
More like 4 years for $58/M.
Trade him and stroman at the deadline for a haul and a half
They just signed Stroman why would they trade him so quickly? They need to extend him. They have 2 priorities which is another SP , CL, and equally as important sign someone to be the DH and then extend Contreras.
Because every team wants to trade players that are doing well for them to the Yankees. That’s why those teams exist.
If Stroman is doing lousy, the Cubs can keep him.
@Samuel- Stroman hates the Yankees just like you. So there is no need for him in NY, just like you, so give it a rest. The players I offered the Cubs would definitely get a trade done for Willson Contreras.
It’s a 3 year deal and they are no where near competitive.
Signing stroman was smart because they bought themselves a trade chip to accelerate their rise
Seriously, you Yankee guys need to tour sports bars around America and do a standup routine with your trade proposals.
You take on a teams best players for your overpaid, underperforming players…..but you trade more of yours then you get back….so the other team makes out there….and you’re doing the other team a favor……giving them players that they have no use for.
You’ll be a big hit if you keep a straight face when performing!
Samuel: The subscriber you have reached is no longer accepting calls from this number. Please try again later… *Click*.
Austin Wells, one of the Yankees short stop prospects, and some lower gambles to the For Contreras
I think Wells & Sweeney should be enough to get Contreras, but I think the Cubs may want pitching instead. I could see them wanting Wells for his bat and his potential for staying behind the plate, although I think he will be a corner OF/1B in the Majors.
@Yankee Clipper- I hear you, but Wells and Sweeney are way too much to give up for only 1 year of Contreras. It’s not happening. The catcher the Yankees just acquired from Minnesota would be a likely piece going back to the Cubs a long with a Randy Vasquez or Deivi Garcia. Volpe, Dominguez, and Peraza will not be traded. Michael King is a pitcher Chicago would have interest also. Luis Medina is probably the Yankees future closer so he stays. The Cubs need starting pitching badly.
@joemoes- Austin Wells or Mike Sweeney will not be traded for only 1 year of Contreras. It’s not happening.
As with Bryant Rizzo and Baez the Cubs FO has no clue as to when to trade players for peak maximum returns. Wilson Contreras should have been traded before last season.
When should they have traded them? Don’t you think they were needed to get into the postseason?
Resign him and let him be the next Yadi. This guy is a class act.
I want him as a brave. Be cool to see a brothers catching duo in the league.
@bravesfan- the Braves definitely have the prospects to make that happen. The Cubs would definitely want a pitching prospect back. Probably in your top 10-15. Maybe 2.
Unfortunately, since Hoyer mentioned for the first time that the Cubs are not in Rebuild Mode, people think the team will be getting to be a playoff caliber team. They are not rebuilding, they’re keeping things as they are. Read between the lines.
Why sing Stroman for 3 years if you aren’t going to extend Willy?
What do those two have to do with each other? Willson is a 30 year old catcher, not the type of player that’s usually great to invest in going forward.