This week, we touch on a couple impending prospect graduates and look ahead for potential future promotions.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Adley Rutschman, 24, C, BAL (MLB)
129 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .220/.287/.407
Rutschman’s prospect eligibility will officially expire with his next plate appearance. In a recent fantasy chat, I received a question about his disappointing performance to date. Contrary to that framing, I’ve found his play to be highly encouraging even if he hasn’t immediately incinerated all competition. His current triple-slash is good for a 96 wRC+. That’s only four percent worse than the average Major Leaguer. This season, there are only 18 catchers with a better wRC+ and at least 100 plate appearances. Rutschman is sandwiched between Sean Murphy and Daulton Varsho. He’s ahead of a slumping J.T. Realmuto. This is not a bad way to debut.
Moreover, he’s performed well in every facet of the game. Even his baserunning has contributed positively. His strikeout rate is better than league average. He swings at considerably fewer pitches out of the zone than the average hitter. He swings more often in-zone. His exit velocities are above average. His launch angle is a tad steep at present, a symptom of a couple extra infield flies. He hasn’t had issues with those in the past and will probably adjust. His current .253 BABIP has room to expand northwards, and his strikeouts could decline below his already-good rate.
Rutschman never projected as a Trout-ian hitter so it’s unfair to have expected more from his first 129 plate appearances. His value to the Orioles comes from a well-rounded skill set that lacks for notable weaknesses at a famously light-hitting position.
Corbin Carroll, 21, SS, SDP (AA)
277 PA, 16 HR, 20 SB, .313/.430/.643
Few players are more overdue for a promotion than Carroll. Diamondbacks personnel are on the record as stating he won’t skip Triple-A like Braves prospect Michael Harris. That makes sense. The Braves called upon Harris to support their title defense. The Diamondbacks are fading fast in their Wild Card chase. Barring a couple miracle weeks, they’re on their way to selling at the trade deadline. There’s no urgency to bring Carroll to Chase Field this season.
Carroll is currently on the injured list with an undisclosed injury. He finished June with a .366/.452/.704 slash in 84 plate appearances. For those hoping to see Carroll in the Majors this season, multiple regulars might need to be cleared out of the way. Arizona has excellent outfield depth in the upper minors. They’ve been frantically assessing the likes of Jake McCarthy, Cooper Hummel, and Pavin Smith to determine which will support the future outfield of Carroll, Varsho, and Alek Thomas and which should be expended.
Nick Yorke, 20, 2B, (A+)
198 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .235/.308/.346
Some observers mocked the Red Sox when they selected Yorke in the first round of the 2020 draft. He proceeded to have a truly excellent 2021 campaign split between Low- and High-A. He returned to High-A this spring for what many hoped would be a brief stint. Instead, he appears to have stalled.
Part of the issue is health-based. A case of turf-toe held him out for most of a month. He returned on June 21 and has looked rusty since – .179/.258/.286 with a 38.7 percent strikeout rate in 31 plate appearances. Scouting reports tend to be complementary of Yorke’s gamesmanship, believing he’ll play well beyond what can only be described as ordinary scouting tools.
Based solely on his performance data, my theory is he attempted to sell out for more power this season. His pulled contact rate increased sharply as did his swinging strike rates. It could also be a simple matter of better pitching in the low minors this season. Pitching inventories were completely exhausted last year due to many clubs carefully managing their best arms on the heels of the lost COVID season. Regardless of explanation, Yorke’s reputation as a grinder with a good baseball IQ suggests he should overcome this temporary setback. He’s still on pace to be one of the youngest players in Double-A later this season.
Oswald Peraza, 22, SS, NYY (AAA)
249 PA, 9 HR, 16 SB, .240/.309/.404
There’s a certain tyranny to developmental expectations these days. Peraza razed High-A in 2021 then performed well-enough in Double-A to earn a brief call-up to Triple-A. The Yankees returned him to Triple-A at the start of this season, but it might have been more appropriate to continue his development in Double-A. His plate approach could use refinement. He appears to have the raw tools and judgment to be disciplined but instead errs on the side of aggression. His swing is balanced and covers the zone well, especially low-to-high. I perceive some potential for big league pitchers to successfully nibble the outer edge against him, but that’s just me editorializing. I haven’t seen that mentioned in any scouting reports.
Peraza has a high-floor approach as a defensively capable shortstop with sufficient contact skills to keep his head above water. He’s also on the 40-man roster and might be the only plausible option to fill in if Gleyber Torres or Isiah Kiner-Falefa ever need an extended absence.
Ezequiel Tovar, 20, SS, COL (AA)
295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545
Entering this season, scouting reports focused on Tovar’s defensive prowess while downplaying his potential to hit for power. FanGraphs went so far as to comp him to a “right-handed Nicky Lopez.” The minor league stats aren’t really matching those paltry expectations.
Last season, Tovar delivered 11 home runs in 326 Low-A plate appearances. It’s uncommon for 19-year-olds to deliver a home run every 30 plate appearances – even the ones we think will one day hit for power. As you can see, he’s performing similarly in Double-A this season as one of the youngest players in the league. He currently leads the Eastern League in batting average and ranks fourth in wOBA (Gunnar Henderson still qualifies for the lead).
The main critique of Tovar is his willingness to expand the strike zone. This leads to a low walk rate, too many swinging strikes, and, as he advances, risk of weak contact on balls outside the zone. The other side of the coin is this – he expands the zone because he’s talented enough to do so. The right adjustments could unlock an incredible outcome – and another elite shortstop for the Rockies franchise.
Five More
Triston Casas, BOS (22): An ankle injury has kept Casas out of action since mid-May. He might have missed a chance to squeeze onto the big league roster. Presently, Bobby Dalbec and Franchy Cordero are performing decently as a first base platoon, but there was a window when Dalbec looked to have fallen out of favor. Casas has resumed fielding work and hitting off a tee. He should progress to game scenarios soon.
DL Hall, BAL (23): The good news for Hall is he’s pitching deeper into his outings. He’s averaged 21 batters faced over his last four starts which is right on par with the workload handled by short-burst starters in the Majors. The bad news is, in those four starts, he’s allowed 16 runs (11 earned) over just 16.2 innings. The two most recent outings – both against the Phillies affiliate – are to blame. He issued 10 walks against only five strikeouts in those appearances. Walks (6.57 BB/9) have been a season-long issue.
Michael Harris, ATL (21): Like Rutschman, this could be Harris’ last episode of BHP as a prospect-eligible player. He’s already at 118 plate appearances and should surpass the 130-plate appearance rookie-threshold by the end of the weekend. His early success (139 wRC+) comes with a few red flags. He’s needed a .402 BABIP and a hyperaggressive approach to overcome an elevated 14.9 percent swinging strike rate. Projection systems believe he’ll regress to slightly below league average as a hitter.
Ivan Herrera, STL (22): The heir apparent to Yadier Molina, Herrera has seen semi-regular action in the Majors while Molina is on the mend from a knee injury. His first taste of the Majors hasn’t gone well yet. He has just two hits, two walks, and seven strikeouts in 18 plate appearances. However, he hit well in Triple-A (.291/.388/.436) and figures to settle in as a plus-defender with a knack for barreled, low-angle contact.
Josh Smith, TEX (24): A key component of the Joey Gallo trade, Smith recently returned from the injured list and has held his own in the Majors. He’s batting an OBP-centric .258/.439/.290. He has a similar hit tool and plate discipline to Rays utility man Taylor Walls with a little more built-in power. He gives every indication of becoming at least a league average hitter who can man most positions.
You listed Carroll as SDP? Wouldn’t that be padres?
Article uses a 3 letter format for each prospect. Whats wrong with that?
The issue is he’s not a Padres prospect.
Poor Nick Yorke didn’t even get any initials — just standing alone under a streetlamp with his suitcase on the sidewalk, waiting to be claimed . . . in the rain.
Because he’s a Diamondback prospect
Yesterday, I swear I checked for which team he played for, and Baseball Ref said ‘San Diego’, either they changed it overnight, or I’m losing my mind.
Amarillo Sodpoodles Dbacks AA team
3 letter designation SDP
Go Soddies!
But all of the other players are listed with the abbreviation of their MLB team and MiLB level; so in this case, it would appear to be accidentally putting Carroll as a Padres prospect.
Ask not a SS he’s an OF
I think there used to be a pitcher for the Orioles named Oswald Peraza. If I am remembering my baseball cards as a kid correctly, that is.
Oswaldo Peraza, so you’re pretty much right on the money. I had to look it up myself because I wasn’t even born then lol
I remember his 1989 topps card. He had a thickkkkkk mustache.
They are both Venezuelans. I’m almost sure that the 80’s pitcher was also Oswald, but for some strange reason was known as Oswaldo in MLB. Wouldn’t be surprised if they’re related.
It’s time to give Phillies RHP prospects McGarry some love. Dude is on fire at A+ Jersey Shore
Adley Rutschman had a solid June
I really don’t see any downside. He will only get better as time goes by.
Yeah, he has a shot to be a really special player; a potential GG caliber C that switch hits for contact and power… I truly do envy some of the prospects the O’s have compiled (sorry y’all had to suffer so much for it).
Wish that the DBacks would have gotten the 1st pick this year, but I can forgive it if it means the Red Sox and Yankees have a rougher go 19 times a year.
He’ll be fine. So many people expected him to be at .579 with 8 HR by now.
He’s having fun out there! Happy for him. Go Os!
Yorke only played 21 games in High A last year. So he was most likely spending most of this year in High A. He hasn’t had any consistent playing time so far this year due to a stomach bug then turf toe then a back issue. I’m waiting for some extended time on the field before judging his performance in High A.
Add in he’s only 20 years old, and the youngest player on this list. He has plenty of time and should be fine.
Ceddanne Rafaela shouldve been featured for the Red Sox, over Yorke. Great Defense at multiple positions and tearing the hide off the baseball so far this season.
Rafaela sure is exciting and hopefully he keeps it going. He has kind of come out of nowhere and I am curious if he changed his approach or just grew and became stronger.
Rafaela reminds me a lot of Mookie Betts. An undersized prospect who plays elite defense and carries a big stick at the plate. He hits for average, power, does not strikeout a lot and is tearing up AA after his earlier than expected promotion there. I can see him making the major league club by age 23 at the latest and becoming a major contributor to the next great Red Sox team.
Yes, his battling stance and swing have reminded me of Mookie Betts.
I’d love to see Peraza continue his hot streak and get called up soon. IKF has been solid defensively for the most part but brutal offensively
Brutal offensively? You base it off power numbers but he’s not a power hitter nor does he need to be. He puts the ball in play and has come up with sone clutch hits! Fantasy baseball stats is not real baseball. He has helped this Yankee lineup he less one dimensional. We need another high contact batter like him rather than remove him!
If IKF had a high average I could live with the lack of power but .260 isn’t good enough to make up for it. He routinely makes soft contact that results in easy groundouts and his defense is average at best. Peraza profiles as a much better hitter and he’s also the superior SS. IKF will soon find himself in a utility role
Hall really needs to cut down the walks before he sees the majors despite how bad the Os need pitching. He has electric stuff but his walk rate is horrendous. Major league hitters would wait him out
Dbacks actually have 6 left handed batting CF
1. Corbin Carroll in AA
2. Alek Thomas starting CF Dbacks
3. Daulton Varsho starting RF Dbacks (moved to accommodate Thomas)
4. Jake McCarthy AAA (demoted from Dbacks only because there were too many left handed hitting OF, but now hitting .346 in AAA)
5. Dominic Fletcher AAA (also hitting about .364)
6. Pavin Smith (has started in CF several times over the past 2 years, former First Round pick)
Also, the near-future Dbacks OF will include RF Kristian Robinson, a power hitting right handed hitter who was a Top 100 Prospect (in actuality he still is, hasn’t lost his talent) until legal and VISA problems sidetracked his career. He is still only 22 years old, so has plenty of time to get back on track. Was projected to be on the major league roster this year. Is currently on the 40 man roster, protected from the Rule 5 draft.
Plays well into the other story about the Yankees looking for a RH-hitting OF.
Question is, which one?
The great thing is that almost every single one of those guys listed doesn’t look like a “faker” in CF (the only exception being Pavin; I really feel bad for the guy being forced into such a redundant role).
Thomas already looks like he can be a 2.5+ WAR CF even with a weak arm and it doesn’t seem very likely that that will change too much once Carroll pushes him to LF.
Can’t wait to see how Carroll performs when he does get the call (perhaps on Opening Day? The new RoY incentives do make him a good candidate to gamble on). Him and Thomas toward the top of the order are going to be obnoxious.
Varsho in that C/CF/RF role gives the manager more opportunities to get a PH in (doesn’t have to worry about burning all of the C). So there will still be plenty of PAs for the 4th and 5th OF.
I have little confidence in that being Robinson as soon as he’s capable of getting game reps (although I do have faith in him making it long term; hopefully he’s made his time out count), but McCarthy has been intriguing in his looks. If he can get his MLB BB/K numbers even slightly closer to his AAA ones, then he’s much more valuable than Pavin in that BU 1B/OF capacity (oddly, he’s displayed reverse platoon tendencies in OPS almost the entirety of his MiLB career).
Sadly, Smith needs to go back to the Minors for a bit and work on who he’s going to be as a hitter. There are better candidates at every position he plays. The irony that he was drafted one year earlier and one round sooner from the exact same school as McCarthy is not lost on me.
Fletcher isn’t somebody that is going to top prospect lists, but he was one of the best college OF defenders in his draft class (while we don’t have MiLB defensive metrics, he does have more OF A than E at every stop; that’s gotta be worth something). His BABIPs look unsustainable, but .320 is his career low; an opposite field GB/LD hitter certainly looks like they could sustain some BABIP inflation.
That’s a good amount of legitimate CF depth, especially when considering that Pavin was having to play CF just last season. Here’s to hoping Robinson hits the ground running so we can move on from Luplow sooner than later; Jordan’s a necessary evil as currently constructed.
I can’t help but wonder what they’ve been having Kristian work on in his off time. I recall Perdomo getting sent to the backfields to rework his swing; if they did something similar for him, all of this downtime could have really helped drill in a lift-tailored swing if utilized correctly. After all, one of the biggest knocks against him was too many groundballs. I can’t help but wish the best for a young man willing to take accountability for his actions, even under mental duress.
highheat. With all these CF options, I think the Dbacks can afford to trade one for the right return. Marlins reportedly will trade SP Pablo Lopez for a young, controllable, two way CF, so they look like logical trade partners. Plus, the Marlins and Dbacks already hooked up for a similar type trade a couple years ago that has worked out well for both teams—Jazz Chisholm for Zac Gallen.
Dbacks might go for this trade because their lineup is so overwhelmingly left handed bats that they are very vulnerable to left handed pitching. The fact that all of these CF are left handed is the only reason why McCarthy was sent down to AAA. And the Dbacks need another good starting pitcher to compete in the NLW.
Agree that they’re in a good position to trade one for pitching, but I can’t say that I’m comfortable with trading 5-6 years of control over any of them for a guy that: is a FA in 2025, projects more as a #2, and there is zero chance to sign a reasonable extension with. It’s just not the same dynamic as the Chisholm/Gallen deal in my eyes.
You can’t really force truly talented prospects into platoon roles until they’ve shown themselves to be incapable. This is the time for them to learn how to compete without the advantage; if they can stay close to league average in those situations the glove should keep them on the field, especially in the NL West (where 2 of the 5 largest OFs by sq ft reside, and all 5 are in the top half).
Everybody knows about Carroll, Thomas, and Varsho at this point, but even McCarthy has enough encouraging signs to suggest he may be better than just a bench player:
-his defense has been at least average by almost every metric, which is obviously a nice thing to have in CF/RF (and as a LHH that started playing 1B, he can give Walker an off day if they want to take a defensive hit)
-he’s in the 98th percentile for Sprint Speed and shows great proficiency when taking the extra base (here’s to hoping for better base stealing jumps)
-in 50 BBE his avg EV was 90.6 mph and LA was 15.5, so he was barreling and elevating the ball when he was making contact (operative word, “when”)
-he was running BB%/K%s of 5.8%/34.9% in his MLB time, which is…. not good; however, he still had a wRC+ of 89 and didn’t look lucky doing it. So even the slightest plate discipline improvement one way or the other creeps him closer to league average (and his plate discipline has improved DRASTICALLY in his second run at AAA, so let’s see how much carries over before we deem him spare parts).
I wasn’t suggesting that any of them would be reverse platoon hitters going forward, just that there’s enough evidence to suggest that they shouldn’t be pigeonholed immediately.
I personally wouldn’t trade any before seeing what we actually have, especially for a pitcher that will likely have one foot out the door the next time the DBacks project to be competitive. Thanks for the reply Scott!
Not an undisclosed injury for Carroll, covid
Probably would have been better for Oswald Peraza to start at double A this Spring, but the Yankees wanted to start top prospect Andrew Volpe there. Essential for the Yankees to have both top prospects develop as shortstops, since they have the greatest need there. Down the line one could play second or become a utility infielder, but especially this Spring there appeared to be a big need at shortstop, the play of IKF has made the need less glaring. Yanks would love to have the luxury of a starting SS that is better than IKF! That would leave the utility role to IKF, which is probably his best role. Peraza and Volpe also figure at third base, where Donaldson has been a disappointment offensively and is 36.
“Peraza has a high-floor approach as a defensively capable shortstop with sufficient contact skills to keep his head above water. He’s also on the 40-man roster and might be the only plausible option to fill in if Gleyber Torres or Isiah Kiner-Falefa ever need an extended absence.”
Marwin Gonzalez has already spelled at shortstop and owns 1 OAA at the position.
Yes. Gonzalez has been solid in the super-sub role. A definite upgrade over Tyler Wade.
As for Peraza, I believe the Yankees were correct in putting him at AAA. He performed well at AA. Failure is part of learning and hopefully progression. Peraza has adapted and is likely a better player now than if he remained in AA.
Having seen Harris play firsthand vs Philly, I can tell you any expectation that he regresses to under league average is crazy. Dude is a dynamo out there.
They are both Venezuelans. I’m almost sure that the 80’s pitcher was also Oswald, but for some strange reason was known as Oswaldo in MLB. Wouldn’t be surprised if they’re related.