The Diamondbacks enter play Thursday with a 37-45 record, six games back of the Cardinals and Phillies for the National League’s final playoff spot. Barring an unexpected strong run over the next three and a half weeks, they seem likely to move shorter-term players for future value for a third consecutive season.
That’ll lead to a fair bit of speculation about veteran trade candidates like Zach Davies and Ian Kennedy, but Arizona could find themselves in position to move a player with a bit more club control in recognition of a mounting outfield surplus. The D-Backs have gotten encouraging early-career showings from Daulton Varsho and Alek Thomas, who look to be blossoming into members of the club’s next long-term core. They’ll be joined by Corbin Carroll, one of the sport’s top overall prospects, in the not too distant future. With that trio reaching or nearing the majors and warranting regular playing time, some of Arizona’s other outfielders could get squeezed out of the mix.
General manager Mike Hazen acknowledged as much, telling Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic the club is “open to discussing” trades involving some of the outfielders on the roster. Arizona has a few generally unproven but affordable depth options. Jake McCarthy and Pavin Smith are former solidly-regarded prospects who have reached the majors over the past couple years. Both had seen their stocks drop in the eyes of most evaluators by the time they reached the big leagues, and neither has hit especially well in limited MLB time to date. Cooper Hummel, whom Arizona acquired from the Brewers in last summer’s Eduardo Escobar trade, doesn’t have much of a prospect pedigree but owns a .316/.439/.539 line in a bit more than 400 career Triple-A plate appearances.
With each still in their mid-20’s and more than a season away from arbitration-eligibility, it’s easy to envision teams having some amount of interest in any or all of that group. (The chances of a Smith trade were dealt a blow when he fractured his right wrist in a minor league game over the weekend). Certainly, none of that trio would bring back a massive return. As Piecoro notes, all three are generally viewed by evaluators as fourth or fifth outfield types at this stage of their careers. Each could hold a bit more value and find an easier path to long-term playing time with another team that doesn’t have as much of a glut of upper minors options as the D-Backs do, however. Piecoro suggests Arizona could look to balance the organization by dealing one or more for an infield or pitching prospect of interest.
There’d of course be plenty more calls if the D-Backs were willing to make any of Varsho, Thomas or Carroll available. That’s less likely, as Hazen expressed a desire to build a core for the fanbase to “latch onto.” He’s spoken in past deadlines about “anchoring” around certain players, culminating in a Spring Training extension for Ketel Marte and a reluctance to part with staff ace Zac Gallen. While he didn’t explicitly rule out dealing anyone on the roster, Hazen downplayed the possibility of parting with a potential core piece. “Constantly rolling out young players for the next young player, I don’t really foresee that being the strategy we’re going to take,” Hazen told Piecoro. “You never want to be close-minded to the things that could happen, but that wouldn’t be a scenario I would chase.”
In addition to the unproven but controllable collection of outfielders, the D-Backs have a pair of veteran role players who could draw some interest from 2022 contenders. Jordan Luplow, acquired from the Rays over the offseason, isn’t having a great season overall but he’s popped seven home runs in 68 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. He’s a career .237/.352/.545 hitter against southpaws and could hold some appeal as a right-handed platoon corner outfield option. Luplow is playing this season on a $1.4MM salary and remains controllable via arbitration through 2024.
David Peralta, meanwhile, has spent all nine of his MLB seasons with the D-Backs. After a few down years offensively, he’s rebounded to post a solid .250/.318/.470 line with 11 longballs in 258 plate appearances. Peralta has seen a dramatic uptick in both his fly-ball rate and hard contact percentage. The new approach has come with a career-high 12.7% swinging strike rate, but the veteran is hitting for more power than he has since a 30-homer 2018 campaign.
Peralta turns 35 years old in August, and he’s playing this season on a $7.5MM salary (a bit less than half of which is still to be paid out). Between his well-regarded clubhouse presence and solid offensive showing, contenders looking for left-handed outfield help but unwilling to meet the Royals’ asking price on Andrew Benintendi could view Peralta as a decent fallback option. At his age and with the aforementioned stockpile of younger options in Arizona, a trade seems likelier than another contract extension.
In a chat with Piecoro earlier this week, Peralta acknowledged that his run with the franchise could be nearing its end. “Like I always say — and I’m not going to get tired of saying it — I want to stay in this organization,” he said. “But I know that on the other side it’s a business, right? You have to think of it that way. If something happens, it’ll hurt, because this is the only organization I know. But if it happens, I’ll just have to take it and move forward.”
Peralta noted that a trade would afford him the opportunity to compete for a playoff spot this season, but he indicated his preference would be to stick with Arizona for the long haul. After joking he could start to play worse to reduce his own trade value and ensure he finishes out the season with the D-Backs, Peralta more seriously indicated he’s willing to stay with the club beyond this year. “It depends on what the Diamondbacks are going to do, what their goals are,” Peralta said about the possibility of re-signing. “I’m always going to be open to playing here. I would love to stay here for the rest of my career. It would mean a lot to me. But we’ll see what’s going to happen.“
Trade Peralta. I think now is a small window where you could get a fair amount of value from dealing him. Teams like the Guardians and Phillies could be interested.
Agree 100%, I said this a week ago or so. Maybe add the Brewers and Pads (intradivisional) to the list but I could see it happening.
Gwynning- yes both of those teams as well could be viable
The Yankees could be interested too if Gallo continues to struggle
I don’t think there is much of a question on IF with Gallo. This is who he is. Sub. 200 hitter. Walks. Homers. The end.
Why are the Yankees not giving Estevan Florial some playing time in the outfield? His OPS at AAA is .905. Is he bad on defense or something? He may strike out a bit more than you would want, but I doubt he would strike out as much as Gallo.
Florial is most likely on the trade table so raking at AAA will preserve his value.
all in the suit,
Florial is an outstanding outfielder, he can play all 3 outfield spots!
Yanks need to trade/release Gallo and do one of the following:
(1) Recall Florial;
(2) Trade for Benintendi;
(3) Trade for Peralta.
Easiest and cheapest is to simply to recall Florial. I lean in this direction. Benintendi would cost a couple of good prospects but is more of a sure thing than Florial and more of a contact hitter. Peralta is cheaper than Benintendi and could cover the Yankees difficult left field. There are of course other possibilities but in my opinion they are unrealistic. Florial, Benintendi, or Peralta are superior to Gallo. I wonder if the Yankees paid the approximate 5 million owed to Gallo if someone like the Padres would take him. The advantage of trading him is you get to pick where he goes. If they release him, I’m afraid he would end up with Tampa or Toronto. I’m concerned that he run into one or two against the Yanks in a potential playoff game(s).
You make a lot of sense, Mickey.
Winfield: Good point. That seems to be the case.
Florial is a creak
regarding Interdivisional trades. Starting next year (or is it 2024?) interdivisional teams play each other few times during the season so teams are less likely to get burned by guys they traded, at leaset in head-to-head games.
Jays want a lefty OF bat aswell
I don’t like the word usage here: “isn’t having a great season overall but he’s popped seven home runs in 68 plate appearances against left-handed pitching“ i think it would have sounded better if you said he’s hit seven home runs.
He’s hit 10 home runs though, with 7 coming against lefties. The statement was made to illustrate that he’s a platoon option for teams that need help against lefties
I don’t like your use of the comment section.
Cavan Biggio.
Sweet swing, mediocre defense, frustrating walk 1st, hit 2nd approach. High OBP, BAbip but low average.
If by some miracle you can get this guy to actually swing the bat, especially on 2 strike counts. He could be something.
Is this free service not meeting up to your high standards?
It just sounds stupid imo
The Wording could have been better, sure. But the way you proposed rewriting it would have been a false statement. Like I stated above, he’s hit 10 total home runs not 7
You sound stupid, because you’ve failed to read it correctly. I know reading comprehension is difficult, but the way you’ve proposed it is just wrong. Perhaps get your own house in order before judging anyone else’s?
Hey buddy – Mike Cleavinger
Uk mlb fan get a grip
Says the guy with a poor grip on English and whining on a free site lmao
Did you suffer a stroke?
Mlb fan in uk get a grip
You already said that. Has your Alzheimer’s kicked in too? Hey, this site is looking for writers – perhaps you could apply as their accessibility correspondent for people with traumatic brain injury? Lmao idiot
Hey buddy – C.J. Abrams.
Luplow to the Brewers makes sense. Their offense is struggling again this year again and it’s even worse against lefties.
Lmao what depth? I count zero good players in this outfield
Varsho and Thomas are both top prospects and Carroll is coming soon (top 5 prospect in MLB). Dominic Fletcher is also tearing up AAA. They don’t have any all stars but they do have guys like Peralta and Luplow who could have value and clear a path for the other young guys to get more at bats.
Also, don’t forget about Stone Garrett. Plays a serviceable OF, and provides a power RH bat.
That isn’t “depth.” Prospect bust rates are insane. Rental platoon bats yield virtually nothing in trades
I agree with you, GMoney, but some teams like to trade their chickens before they hatch.
Thank you, was thinking the same thing. A couple guys are playing well–with little track record otherwise–for a team that is under absolutely no pressure, and this is “depth”? McCarthy and Smith scare no one–if we are only going off “former top prospect status”, maybe someone can trade for Tim Beckham? Peralta may be serviceable, Luplow can hit lefties (when he isn’t injured), but that is hardly “depth”…if they had true depth, maybe they would be a contender?
-Peralta is having a career year as far as StatCast is concerned (xStats think he’s slightly unlucky to “only” have a 113 wRC+) and he’s providing positive defensive value by most all metrics; also, the prorated portion $7M is not a massive drop in the bucket
-Varsho is already established as an above average contributor with above average to plus defense across every OF position and adequate defense at C; he also (famously) runs pretty well for a C
-Thomas is 22 years old and already hitting at a league average line with above average to plus defense in CF; he’s also currently the 27th fastest player in MLB and already looks like at least a league average player to slightly above.
-Carroll is Pipeline’s #3 overall prospect, and the only tools of his that don’t look like they have a shot to be plus-plus are his power and arm (one is average, the other above). He’s absolutely demolishing the high Minors despite limited developmental reps. He has the ceiling of a perennial All Star
-McCarthy has shown himself to be a capable defender at all three OF spots, is the 11th fastest player in MLB, and has made hard contact in the Majors (when he had made contact); his plate discipline has been much improved in his second go at AAA, so it’s almost time to see how much sticks in MLB
-Fletcher is projected to be at least an average glove in all OF spots and FWIW Steamer (which updates projections daily) thinks there’s a good shot he could be a league average hitter right now
-Luplow only has value as a shortside platoon bat, not too upset if he goes for nothing at this point
-Garrett has actually hit better against RHP this season, so some team might see an outside shot of him not being “just a platoon bat” (I don’t seriously think he or Canzone are targets)
I personally think McCarthy could be a league average MLB CF right now, so I see 4 average (or above) CF right there. Just because there is no current All Star doesn’t mean there is a lack of good players.
Great recap. And we overlook Kristian Robinson who has been out the last few seasons due to legal issues, but is still only 21 years old and was well respected in prospect rankings pre 2021.
Thank you! It’s probably best to keep our expectations tempered in regard to Robinson sadly. There have been no recent updates, so it’s looking more likely that he won’t have his parole reduced (the end of the 18 months will be in February).
If the visa application process goes smoothly, he should be able to get professional PAs in early-mid ’23 best case scenario; if he can spend a good amount of time at AA, then he’s back on an age appropriate timeline.
If he’s taking advantage of his time off like Carroll did (and he has had MUCH more time), then there are still things that he could have been working on.
Tailoring his swing to generate more fly balls is the biggest one that comes to mind. Even just working on situational understanding or simplifying his mechanics would be beneficial. Fingers crossed he comes back and hits the ground running.
Even with a fire sale, they’d still catch the cardinals
Hahaha.
No.
Peralta to the Yanks.
They already have one of those.
Always double down on Peraltas if you can.
Would they be willing to trade Christian Walker? Red Sox could use some power at 1B, or at DH if Martinez leaves after this year.
I imagine they’d only trade him if someone overpayed at this point. He’s an excellent defender at 1B and is the only real home run threat in their lineup at the moment, not to mention he balances out all of the lefty bats.
A package centered around Ceddanne Rafaela would certainly intrigue me.
Who’s to say what other parts go either way, but that’s a good starting point in my eyes.
Looking at Christian Walkers numbers it sure appears he is having a breakout season and he’s fly ball hitter that pulls the ball from the right side those are very good things in Fenway. The more I look into it I like the fit this year. I guess it would be a what would it take to get him thing. The reason I can’t see Boston overpaying is because they already have there first baseman of the future Casas. They may need Walker to DH next year since JD probably walks I guess it just depends on what Bloom thinks of Walker and if he can sustain his breakout numbers especially the under 20% strikeout rate. I would be intrigued by Walker though if I was Bloom.
Forgot to tell you why Rafaela would be a good fit for the DBacks (since you questioned why they’d need more OF depth with MLB proximity in the last thread), and it’s entirely to do with him batting right-handed and being competent defensively in both the IF and OF.
Ahmed being out with injury, Kennedy and Alexander are the only RHB that play IF and have some promise (don’t @ me Jake Hager).
The nearest term RHB in the OF is Garrett, but Rafaela has more contact to project on.
Higheat after perusing your players I understand why you would want to add a RH in the outfield. He can play numerous positions his defense is top notch anywhere on the field but he is exceptional in center. It would be a risk to trade him if his offense continues to mature the way it has then sky’s the limit for Rafaela.
There’s also the added benefit of him being able to jump between positions on double switches, the exact thing that Torey is doing with Varsho. So with Varsho and Rafaela both on the roster Torey could effectively PH anybody for anybody, shift a defender or two, and not have a significant degradation of defense (best case scenario being an improvement of defense at multiple positions, with the added benefit of a preferred batting match-up).
Highheat. Why would the Dbacks trade their right handed hitting first baseman? With Pavin Smith’s injury (and he’s left handed anyway) and Seth Beer (also left handed) as the only viable replacements, trading Christian is the LAST thing the Dbacks will do! Hard NO. Immediate hang up to whoever calls.
I don’t think that they would or should, just that that is the realm of overpay I’d be willing to consider for the deal. Here’s my reasoning:
-a quality 1B across the board (with some additional offensive upside) is a luxury that a 4th/5th place team doesn’t really NEED; and who’s more tantalizing as a RHH trade candidate, Walker or Luplow?
-Luplow acquitted himself well when playing 1B for the Rays last season, so he’s TECHNICALLY a RHH 1B (although, not one you’d play without a platoon complement)
-McCarthy started learning 1B last season and has made some appearances this season as well (but I’m also biased, I think he needs to be getting PAs in MLB by any means necessary)
-Leandro Cedeno is mashing as a 23 yo at AA; he’s likely to get a promotion to AAA before the end of this season to see if he’s worth adding to the 40-man as a RHH 1B
There are more reasons it could MAYBE be a possible fit, but those are my main considerations. Still don’t think any of this should/could/would happen, but it’s fun to entertain outlandish ideas with some basis in reality every once in a while.
Highheat I do think that Walker is the kind of guy the Red Sox trade for he checks the boxes interestingly MLBTV says it’s a good trade Rafaela for Walker.
I will say this unless Bostons starters can get healthy in a hurry then Boston will be a seller at the deadline and they would have some very quality assets to trade it might happen and obviously if that does the Red Sox aren’t moving Rafaela. I like your thought process though.
David Peralta is a solid bet to end up in Toronto
Peralta is very interesting. Here are his launch angles by year
2015: 6.7
2016: 8.3
2017: 4.2
2018: 6.7
2019: 6.4
2020: 6.4
2021: 5.3
2022: 17.5!!
Now xslugging
2015: 457
2016: 353
2017: 399
2018: 472
2019: 379
2020: 375
2021: 345
2022: 521
Even with his age teams should go after him aggressively, hope padres do.
Just what baseball needs to get fans looking for action, more geometry.
So front offices and scouts should ignore geometry? What exactly is the thinking here?
What outfield depth?
Too bad about Mr. Smith, I hate injuries. Return Varsho to WI, where his family is from? Not likely, but what about Peralta for Severson? My brewers need some help quick!
I don’t know if I’d call 35-year old David Peralta, Journeyman Jordan Luplow, Failed prospects Pavin Smith, Jake McCarthy or Cooper Hummel all that great of depth! Unless I’m wrong and you catch lightning in a bottle, you’d be replacing one scrub with another at this point trading for one of these guys!
Peralta is good and luplow hits lefties well.
Pavin Smith fractured his wrist at Reno yesterday , he isn’t being traded now.
To old York:Compared to what My Brewers started yesterday; they all look great!
Outfield depth at the trade line is a dime a dozen, so don’t expect much in return for guys that are struggling on losing teams.
With the arrival of Varsho and Thomas, and soon to be arrival of Carroll and Fletcher, the remaining D-backs OF options are surplus as noted in the article.
I don’t believe the author characterized any of the surplus OFs as great. Rather, he pointed out that each have their flaws. I believe his point was that while they may no longer be needed in Arizona, a team hungry for OF help, and not wanting or able to pay the price for Benintendi, may want to take a look at the D-backs.
My best guess is that Peralta and Luplow are traded by August 2 for nominal returns.
What team had and got rid of Max Sherzer, Paul Goldschmidt, JD Martinez, Dansby Swanson, Jazz Chisholm among countless others. DBACKS are probably a really good team to trade with, they always suck
That is quite a list of great talent! Ouch!
To be fair, they traded Jazz for Gallen. I certainly would not characterize that as a trade loss.
Teams with low budge are not aiming to win the WS. Why? It’s impossible that’s why. Don’t get me wrong they could still win it but in April they don’t start the season saying “Okay, it’s a must we win the WS this year” instead they’d say “okay this year’s pretty much the same as last year, let’s see how it goes”.
“it’s impossible that’s why”
Next sentence: “Don’t get me wrong they could still win it”
This article needs some refocusing. The Dbacks have a surplus of young, controllable left handed hitting CF. Actually they have 6 of them. The problem is the Dbacks had 4 of them on the roster. As you all know, only 1 player at a time plays CF in any game. So one played CF, one played right field, one played catcher and one played first base. Unfortunately, since they are all left handed hitters, this made the Dbacks extremely vulnerable to left handed pitching., and they’ve faced left handed starters and relievers increasingly this season.
Part of the solution to these problems is to trade at least one of these 6 left handed CF, for a young controllable prospect who plays a different position, preferably a pitcher. The Marlins for example want a young controllable CF for one of their pitchers — Pablo Lopez — and since the Marlins and Dbacks connected on a similar type trade 3 years ago—Jazz Chisholm for Zac Gallen, something might happen there.
But be clear, the Dbacks aren’t trading one of these 6 unless they get a young, controllable prospect in return. That’s a very different thing from what this article is suggesting. Many commenters here have written about how silly it would be for the Dbacks to do what this article suggests.
Equally silly would be for the Dbacks to trade either of their Right handed hitters—Luplow or Hummel, since they desperately need any right handed hitting OF.
The only thing that makes sense is for the Dbacks to trade left handed LF David Peralta, who is having a very good year and is in the last year of his contract. This is the only valid point of this article.
” The Dbacks have a surplus of young, controllable left handed hitting CF. Actually they have 6 of them. The problem is the Dbacks had 4 of them on the roster.”
scottaz;
Here’s the problem as I see it……
There’s currently a shortage of CF’s in MLB. A number of playoff contending teams have been looking for a decent one. They’re trying to stretch guys they have on their roster to perform as even an average MLB CF.
MLBTR encourages trades and player movement while advocating for players and forever demanding they get more playing time and more money by bringing up selected statistics. That’s fine.
Approaching the trade deadline this article puts a spin on some DBacks OF’s. Nothing wrong with that. However, the reality is that what the DBacks have to offer in trade is not much better than what teams needing OF’s – particularly CF’s – already have. When I read the headline I thought maybe Ketel Marte was available. He’s the only OF the DBacks have that would get the attention and make a difference for teams looking for an OF, particularly a CF.
Samuel, Ketel Marte’s days as an OF are over. He can’t stay healthy with the demands on his body of a CF. In fact, he’s having trouble staying healthy as a 2b, so the Dbacks haven’t even used him as the back up SS when Ahmed went down with injuries.
And again, as I wrote above, the Dbacks aren’t trying to trade a CF to a contender’s needs, they are only contemplating trading a young CF for a young pitcher. The Jazz Chisholm for Zac Gallen trade was a pretty unique trade, very different from what you are thinking. That’s the type of unique trade the Dbacks are considering now for these CF.
The Dbacks will trade David Peralta, Zack Davies, Caleb Smith and Noe Ramirez to contenders in the type of trade you are writing about. And you are right that except for Peralta, the Dbacks will get virtually nothing in return.
scottaz;
I don’t watch the DBacks a lot, or keep up with them. No offense, but it seems that under Mike Hazen they get into some sort of a selloff / rebuild. Maybe get a bit over .500. Sort of look like contending is about to happen. Then sputter as the payroll gets maxed out and restart the cycle. Same thing as with Cubs / Jed Hoyer; Mariners / Jerry Dipoto; A’s / Billy Beane and some others I can’t immediately come up with.
This is why I like the Astros organization and have hopes for both Mike Elias in Baltimore and Ben Cherington in Pittsburgh. Both seem to understand the need to have a sustainable contender as opposed to a 3-4 year widow of contention. They’ve went about setting up organizational infrastructures that will continuously acquire and develop / maximize players productivity at both the ML and minor league levels, while keeping the ML payroll within a workable level.
Thought I’d read something about Marte burning himself out playing the OF. He seems to be on a similar path that Eduardo Escobar was on. I liked him as a young player on the Twins. In time realized that he couldn’t play SS, but was fine as a 2B or 3B. Had a nice stay with the DBacks. Seems Marte is on the same trajectory.
It’s nothing to do with Hazen and everything to do with Ken Kendrick (the owner). The Astros actually spent money on their core, but that eats into KKs pocketbook. Can’t have that. Astros are projected to finish with a payroll $80M higher than the DBacks, and anyone thinking that Hazen couldn’t do better with a comparable payroll is deluded.
Ketel isn’t even a fielder anymore, let alone an IF. Good news is that he still hits well from both sides of the plate, so he’s an ideal perma-DH candidate. Thank God, because our DH production has been atrocious.
This season will amount to nothing, but the good news is that it looks like there is a good shot next season at average to above production from: DH, C, 1B, 3B, LF, CF, and RF (or replace DH with 2B in the case of Marte continuing to play the field). We’re still waiting to see what we have in Perdomo and Kennedy, but so far Kennedy has shown more speed plus better defense than initially projected and Perdomo is really struggling. If either one settles in, that’s 8 spots in the lineup set for next season. All of those players were either drafted or traded for (or waiver claimed in the case of Walker) by Hazen.
We’re just now seeing a large number of his draft picks break in to MLB. Maybe wait a bit to see how it pans out for Hazen; this is an entirely new situation.
Samuel,
Good insight, thank you.
I don’t see the Dbacks in the same category as the A’s and others. Dbacks have never had a “sell off” like the A’s and others do. Yes, they dumped Greinke’s big contract, and traded Goldschmidt instead of signing him to a big long term contract. But they turned around and signed MadBum to a big contract, then extended Marte for multi years.
The MadBum contract shows they will spend money, which the A’s, etc. won’t. That’s one difference. The Marte contract is a better indicator of the difference. To be sustainable, teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, etc. can spend and spend on multiple big contracts. To be sustainable, the Dbacks can’t do that. Instead, the Dbacks are taking the course of signing key core pieces to medium sized long term contracts, and developing other pieces internally through the farm. That’s what this year’s team is starting to look like, and there are about 6 more key pieces in the pipeline nearing the bigs—Corbin Carroll, Jordan Lawlar, Kristian Robinson, Blake Walston, Tommy Henry, and Brandon Pfaadt, who all look like perennial All-Star caliber performers. For the Dbacks, sustainability is defined as competing for the post-season every year, as opposed to a three year window and then blow it all up and wait 4-5 years for another window. The combination of wise early middle sized contracts and an annually productive farm system are the goals. Settling for .500 seasons and then sliding backwards is not the intention.
“The Astros actually spent money on their core, but that eats into KKs pocketbook.”
highheat;
Oh.
So the Astros owner is paying players out of his pocket and not through revenues?
“Ketel isn’t even a fielder anymore, let alone an IF. Good news is that he still hits well from both sides of the plate, so he’s an ideal perma-DH candidate.”
And therein lies the rub…….
The man just signed a 5 year contract based on his being able to play both 2B and CF – 2 important defensive positions. Now you’re telling me they need to DH him.
All things look rosy when we project the future….for all teams fans. But at some point the future becomes the present…good, bad, or indifferent.
Not what I’m saying; I’m saying that the owner of the Astros invests into his team to the point that the onfield product sustains itself financially (or saved funds related to an onfield purpose, at least).
Remember, this is the same owner that penny pinched all those years ago when the Astros lost 105, 106, and 107 times. He didn’t put self-imposed financial restrictions on the team when they actually had the talent worth paying. Nor did he specifically mandate going out and excessively splurging in FA or trading a top prospect for “immediate” value in ill-fated attempts at appearing competitive (how we wound up with the Greinke signing and Miller trade, respectively).
The is also the franchise that pioneered the idea of trading a quality prospect to offload a bad contract. Something that’s proved to be useful for teams approaching the luxury tax threshold. The problem? The DBacks have never once remotely approached the LT threshold; do you think that was an owner or FO decision?
Phoenix is NOT a small TV market, the DBacks got a pretty favorable TV deal from Fox (before the Bally buyout), and they are recipients of revenue sharing, yet here we are with a projected $94M payroll. Oh yeah, the petty squabbles about relocation to negotiate more control of a taxpayer-funded stadium are also a great way to show that you care about the onfield product.
Jim Crane is 10x the owner Ken Kendrick will ever be.
There’s a little more nuance there; he signed a 5 year, $76M contract. So he just needs to average $15.2M worth of value each season. That’s only around 2 WAR on the FA market. He’s producing enough to break even offensively in value (with minimal power), so excess power is surplus production (granted, you want him hitting for more power).
He technically CAN play 2B and CF, but he’s negative value defensively; why bother when there are better defensive options and he’s one of the few on the DBacks roster that has been capable of performing without playing in the field. Playing him in the DH spot actually ADDS value to the team (insomuch that it doesn’t subtract value).
highheat and scottaz, it is a pleasure to read your D-backs posts. You guys really know your stuff. Thank you… and keep posting.
Thank you! If you enjoy DBacks insight from a knowledgeable community, you should check out AZSnakePit. One of the better SBNation sites imo (but I’m biased). Even the readers contribute fairly regularly, maybe I’ll catch you there some time!
@highbeat, Samuel, scottaz, others; 1st time following a Dbacks thread. Enjoyable. Thank you for all the insight. I’m a fan of successful teams that spend a lot of money but still come in well under the tax threshold. The two that jump out are Houston and Atlanta. To me it looks like ownership, Crane and Liberty Media, do not meddle in the baseball decision making. They put full trust in their baseball people to put a winning product on the field and doing so by spending the money wisely. Two examples this off season: 1. The Astros management telling Crane it’s best for the team to let Correa go FA. 2. Atlanta’s brass telling their owner, Freeman is option 2 at 1st base. To stay competitive, moving forward, Olson is the target. Gulp. If I was the owner in those two scenarios, I’d freak out! “Whaddya mean we’re moving on from Correa (or Freeman), that guy puts fanny’s in seats. Ain’t happening.”
O’s fan here. I’ve got a great vibe about controlling owner John Angelos. His first key rebuild move in 2018 after taking over for his dad, Peter, was hiring Mike Elias. To date, there’s every sign he is a “hands off” owner. IE trusts Elias and company to produce a competitive product and yearly. So far so good. A foundation is molding in to shape. Next step. Spending the money when Elias says it’s time to do so. Will John do it? I hope so! Pull that trigger, John, pull it. Let’s go Os!
None of the players mentioned in this article should be on the Yankees’ radar. They could do just as well or better by bringing back Andujar or bringing up Florial. Estevan is 7th in wRC+ and 11th in BA of all qualified players in Triple-A.
Not feeling Marte? That is the only one I’d kick the tires on but the cost probably would be too much to bear.
Agreed FP…..none of these guys, especially Peralta, is worthwhile pursuing by the Yankees…..give me a break…..how far has baseball sunk to think that batting .250 is “solid”….and please no analytics fanatics replies……
Varsho. .235/305obp career numbers
Thomas. .244/305
McCarthy .225/305
Smith. .250/318 (currently hitting .203)
Carroll looks promising, but he is a suspect until he establishes himself at the highest level
Teams will be after Carroll, the 4 others have no value.
VegasSDfan, Varsho and Thomas are already stars on defense. Both make highlight reel plays with their speed and athleticism in the OF on an almost nightly basis. And both continue to improve offensively. Batting average is a poor indicator of contribution, but after a brutal start, even Varsho is currently performing at above major league average offensively. The total package for both is already above average and headed for star territory.
Isn’t it a bit disingenuous to list BA/OBP, but completely disregard SLG (or ISO, since you so kindly but BA)?. Let me help you out
Varsho: .183 ISO this season (career .186)
Thomas: .167 ISO in his first MLB looks
McCarthy: .167 ISO over all of his scattered MLB PAs
Smith: won’t argue about him, he’s been jerked around too much to get comfortable.
Since you’re a Padres fan, I’ll give you some perspective; .191/.288/.333 is the line of Padres CFs this season (.142 ISO). That’s good for 19% worse than league average offensively (and an identical wRC+ to what Smith put up)
The career MLB offensive production of everyone that you’re trying to dismiss here is HIGHER than anything you’ve seen this season from a Padres CF. Oh, and the first 3 are all strong fielders and baserunners.
Tell me again how they have no value?
Right now, Jake McCarthy and Dominic Fletcher are destroying AAA pitching and proving they have nothing more to prove in the minors. These are the two of the 6 left handed hitting CF the Dbacks are most likely to trade for a young controllable pitching prospect.
It is always possible, but not likely, that a contender sees the talent and goes after their potential, but I’m certainly not holding my breath hoping that will happen.
The Dbacks won’t trade Corbin Carroll (who is currently the #3 prospect in all of baseball and is currently absolutely dominating AA pitching), nor Alek Thomas and Daulton Varsho (who are already defensive star caliber and rapidly moving toward above average to star caliber offensively as the starting CF and RF). If you don’t believe this assessment of their star power defensively, I challenge you to watch ANY recent Dbacks game, because they are both making highlight reel plays in virtually every game using their speed and superb athleticism.
Unfortunately, Pavin Smith’s recent wrist injury has him on the shelf for most of this season. But last year, Pavin was already hitting above average, with a little power. This year, he changed his swing, like so many players are now doing, to hit more fly balls. His power numbers are up significantly, but his batting average suffered just as significantly. Pavin needs time in the minors to get both average and power up. If he can do that, then he will have some value.
Marte and Bumgarner to the Mets makes a lot of sense to me
On what planet?
You forgot to add Uranus to your reply. 🙂
Kristian Robinson was discussed a bit earlier on this thread. Ultimately, I think the Dbacks 4 OF will be Corbin Carroll, Kristian Robinson, Alek Thomas and Daulton Varsho.
Kristian is trying to get his sentence reduced from felony to “misdemeanor” category so he can get his VISA. It looks like his representatives are trying to get a court date late this fall, Novemberish, to get that sentence reduced. Then comes the agonizingly long VISA application process. There is still an expectation that Robinson will succeed in getting his troubles behind him and be a Dback late next season. Let’s hope for the best. By all reports, Robinson is working hard at his court directed community service, and is working out in the minor league complex, he just isn’t allowed to play in games where there is paid attendance.
alex thomas for Hunter Greene. Thomas has Cargo like skills.
Perdomo, Castellanos Josh rojas for Avaisail Garcia and Brian Anderson
Zac Gallen for Reynolds.
Pavin Smith is new first baseman when he comes back from injury
k Marte gets on a hot streak trade him for Snell
No.