We’re only six weeks removed from Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo publicly declaring that he had no intention of trading star outfielder Juan Soto. Rizzo’s comments seemed earnest — both at the time and even in light of recent reports — as the organization clearly had every intention of trying to extend the 23-year-old and build around him long-term. The Nationals reportedly offered Soto a guaranteed $440MM recently, which he rebuffed, presumably due to a combination of factors.
Firstly, the 15-year term of the deal left Soto’s $29.33MM annual value well shy of the rate at which the game’s brightest stars are paid. Whatever the size of the guarantee, Soto is going to be set for generations, but as we saw with Aaron Judge and the Yankees late in Spring Training, there’s a symbolic element to being paid at rates commensurate with (or in excess of) the Mike Trouts and Gerrit Coles of the game.
It also can’t help that the Nats are mired in a rebuild that leaves their near-term outlook bleak, even with Soto. The slugger recently told reporters that after getting a taste of winning in 2019 when the Nats took home a World Series title, he wants more. That looks unlikely in D.C. at any point in the near future. And with the team reportedly up for sale, Soto can’t know who’ll be signing the checks, what their long-term vision will be, and even who’ll be building the future rosters. Rizzo is under contract through the 2023 season, but new ownership groups often (albeit not always) come in and restructure the front office with their own hires.
With the Nationals now open to trade proposals for Soto, an already interesting deadline becomes one of the most fascinating in history. Soto has been so good for so long that it’s easy to forget he’s not yet celebrated his 24th birthday. Paradoxically, even while expressing how long he’s dominated opposing pitchers, it’s surprising to look up and see that he still has two full seasons of club control remaining beyond the current season. Soto was so good, so immediately, that it feels like he should be well into his 20s and/or on the very cusp of free agency. Neither is true.
A talent of this magnitude hasn’t hit the trade market this early in his career and with this much of a track record since the then-Florida Marlins sent Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers at the 2007 Winter Meetings for a six-player package headlined by Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller. Both Maybin and Miller had been top-10 selections in the two prior drafts, and both were ranked inside Baseball America’s top 10 overall prospects in all of MLB at the time.
And yet, even that comparison may fall a bit shy. Heading into his age-25 season at the time of the trade, Cabrera was legitimately amazing — a perennial .300+ hitter with easy 30-homer power who had been, by measure of wRC+, 39 percent better than league average with the bat at that point in his career. Soto, however, will be 24 for the entirety of the 2023 season. By measure of wRC+, he’s been 55 percent better than the average hitter to this point in his career.
Obviously, the two situations differ beyond that fairly rudimentary comparison. The Marlins also sent Dontrelle Willis to the Tigers, which impacted the calculus of that deal. Speculatively speaking, the Nationals could try to dump Patrick Corbin on an acquiring team, but we don’t know whether that’ll be the case. (Stephen Strasburg has a full no-trade clause, for those thinking even bigger, which makes that scenario unlikely.) More broadly, the manner in which front offices value prospects has changed over the years. We shouldn’t look to the Cabrera deal as a concrete template, but it’s a the closest general barometer of how painful it might be to acquire a talent of Soto’s caliber at this juncture of his career.
Because Soto is such an elite talent, it stands to reason that virtually every team in baseball will at least be checking in. And, because he’s controlled so far beyond the current season, fans shouldn’t expect that only clear-cut buyers will be in the market for him. Teams like the Rangers and Cubs might not be in the playoff chase this year, but you can bet they’ll still be getting a feel for what it might cost them to acquire Soto.
The best fits for Soto are going to be teams with strong farm systems — be they balanced and deep or top-heavy with a few star names up front and more scarcity in the middle tiers. There are 29 other clubs who’ll have varying degrees of interest, although not everyone is going to be a legitimate fit.
Take the Athletics, for instance. Oakland tore down the bulk of its roster over the winter, which means they technically have the payroll space and a newly bolstered minor league system, but Soto could earn $55-60MM in arbitration over the next two seasons. The A’s would have little chance of extending him, and next year isn’t likely to be competitive for them anyhow. It’s a similar story over in Cincinnati, where the Reds have been aggressively cutting payroll.
The Pirates are still in a rebuild, and it’s unlikely ownership would ever sign off on the type of money it’d take to pay Soto, even when looking only at his arbitration seasons. The Marlins spent some money this offseason and have a wealth of pitching talent to dangle, but emptying your farm to a division rival to acquire a player whom they’d have almost no shot at extending seems like a reach. The Royals feel similar to the Marlins — a small-payroll team that’s trying to win but wouldn’t make this type of fiscal splash. They’ve never given out a contract larger than Salvador Perez’s four-year, $82MM deal.
Composition of farm system is going to matter greatly in Soto talks, as well. The White Sox are an obvious on-paper fit for Soto, but they’re widely regarded as having the worst system in the game. That doesn’t mean their minor league ranks are devoid of talent, but it’d be hard for them to match the value offered by other teams. They could swing things by including Major League talent — I’m sure the Nats would love to get their hands on Michael Kopech — but that’s always less likely.
Other teams in similar scenarios include the Phillies, Brewers, Angels, Astros and Braves. The Halos and ’Stros landed 28th and 29th in the sport in the offseason rankings from both Baseball America and MLB.com. The Braves entered the season widely regarded in the bottom-third or bottom-quarter of the teams in this area, and they’ve since seen their top two prospects (Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider) graduate to the big leagues.
Teams Nearing the End of a Rebuild Cycle
Orioles: Were it not for the overwhelming bad blood between the Nats and Orioles stemming from the years-long dispute over rights fees from MASN, this fit would be cleaner than most might think. Baltimore’s longstanding rebuild has left their farm system flush with high-end prospects and left the long-term payroll in pristine standing. There’d be room to shell out a huge prospect haul while still building around Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays and others, and the blank-slate payroll would give the O’s a legitimate chance to test the threshold of Soto’s willingness to bet on himself in year-to-year fashion. This one isn’t happening, but it’s fun for O’s fans that the rebuild has even reached a point where it’s worth kicking around.
Tigers: It’s doubtful the team that made this work with Miguel Cabrera would recreate history, but it’s fun to think about. Outfielder Riley Greene recently ascended to the No. 1 spot on Baseball America’s list of the game’s best prospects, and the Tigers have a slew of both prospects and young Major Leaguers who could be pieced together. This would be more plausible if the current roster were playing at a level the front office hoped for heading into the season, however.
Cubs: The Cubs made some notable additions this past offseason, signing Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki to multi-year deals. Those only cost the team money, however, and parting with the overwhelming slate of young talent that would be necessary to pry Soto loose would run contrary to the team’s current efforts to restock the farm system. The Cubs are a major-market team with the capacity for $200MM+ payrolls, so we probably shouldn’t expressly rule out the idea that they could sell off this summer’s chips (Willson Contreras, David Robertson, Mychal Givens, perhaps Ian Happ) and simultaneously pivot to acquire a new cornerstone around which to build … but it certainly feels like more of a reach than the following teams.
Payroll-Conscious Long Shots
Rays: Before you laugh off the notion of the Rays gutting the farm and paying Soto upward of $60MM from 2023-24, recall that they just doled out an 11-year extension to burgeoning star Wander Franco and then made a legitimate run at Freddie Freeman in free agency, offering a reported $150MM in guaranteed money. Tampa Bay almost certainly wouldn’t spend to the necessary levels to hammer out a Soto extension, but they were willing to take on a hefty Freeman salary and only have $21MM in guaranteed contracts on next year’s payroll.
Guardians: They shocked us once by extending Jose Ramirez. It’s almost impossible to fathom Cleveland signing Soto long term, but the team that acquires him doesn’t need to sign him long term. Installing Soto into the heart of the batting order alongside Ramirez for the next 26 months would give AL Central opponents bona fide nightmares, and the Guards have just $19MM on next year’s books and $25MM on the books in 2024. They also have one of the game’s very best farm systems, meaning they could both put together a tough-to-rival package to tempt the Nats while simultaneously supplementing Soto’s ever-growing salary with league-minimum (or close to it) talent.
D-backs: Arizona has one of the game’s best farm systems, headlined by outfield prospect Corbin Carroll and last year’s No. 6 overall pick Jordan Lawlar. The D-backs also have just $59MM on the books in 2023, $38MM in 2024 and $17.6MM in 2025 (which would be the first season of a highly improbable Soto extension). The organization’s hopes of competing in the NL West in the near future are low, however, which makes emptying the tank for Soto a tough sell at present.
Twins: The Twins bumped payroll to franchise-record levels to sign Carlos Correa at $35.1MM per year over an opt-out laden three-year pact, so maybe it’s unfair to put them in the “payroll conscious” bucket. However, barring a scenario where Correa surprises and forgoes his opt-out, the $55-60MM Soto stands to make in 2023-24 would be the most Minnesota has ever paid a player over a two-year term, and an extension would have to be at or in excess of Correa’s annual price range but more than four times the length. Minnesota has a decent farm system, but this just doesn’t feel feasible.
Rockies: Perhaps “payroll-conscious” is a misnomer here, too, given that Colorado has run its payroll as high as $145MM in the past. But the Rox already have $110MM on next year’s books, and that’s before Charlie Blackmon picks up a likely $18MM player option. Between that and the team’s arbitration class, the Rockies are going to be within arm’s reach of franchise-record spending before making a single addition. They’ve seen several prospects take big steps forward this year, placing five names on BA’s latest Top 100 list, and ownership seems convinced there’s a winning core here. I wouldn’t spend too much time dwelling on this possibility, but Soto at Coors Field would be fun.
The Best Fits (in no particular order)
Padres: Nary a marquee trade candidate hits the market without president of baseball ops AJ Preller pushing to acquire said superstar. Preller’s Padres are “in” on everything, and with names like C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III and more to dangle at the Nats — plus a glaring corner outfield need — the fit is too hard to ignore. I had the Friars in the “long shots” bucket while constructing much of this draft, but it’s just too on-brand for the Padres to find a creative way to dump Eric Hosmer and/or Wil Myers in order to bring in Soto while ducking just under the luxury-tax threshold. Frankly, bailing Preller out on either Hosmer or Myers would be a nice way for Rizzo to try to squeeze even more out of the Padres’ system.
It’s also fair to wonder whether Soto might be deemed such an exception that ownership just green-lights the move and pays the luxury tax for a second straight year. San Diego has plenty of luxury room in 2023 (at least for now), so ownership could reasonably feel confident that they’d be able to duck back under the line and avoid a three-year penalty.
Dodgers: For all their spending, the Dodgers only have $85MM on the books next year and $99MM in luxury commitments. No, the outfield isn’t a true “need” — at least not relative to the bullpen — but the Dodgers have the payroll and the perennially excellent farm system to be in on every opportunity like this. It’s how they landed Mookie Betts from the Red Sox and how they came away from last year’s deadline with another pair of Nationals stars: Trea Turner and Max Scherzer.
Los Angeles placed a whopping seven prospects on Baseball America’s recently published midseason Top 100 list, so there’s no doubting they have the requisite talent to get it done. They also took on half of David Price’s deal to grease the wheels on the aforementioned Betts trade, and that commitment to Price is up at season’s end. If the Nats really want to attach Corbin to Soto, the Dodgers are positioned as well as anyone to make that work.
Yankees: The Yankees don’t know how much longer Judge will be patrolling their outfield after he, like Soto, rejected the team’s final extension offer. Acquiring Soto would almost certainly cost the Yankees top shortstop prospect Anthony Volpe and then some, but the notion of pairing Judge and Soto in the middle of the lineup — even if only for a few months — would soften that sting. Acquiring Soto would also give the Yankees something of a safety net should Judge find offers well beyond owner Hal Steinbrenner’s comfort level.
Of course, adding Soto would double as quite the sales pitch to keep Judge in the Bronx. It’s tough to imagine a team paying Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, Judge and Soto the type of annual salaries that quartet will command through 2027 — the final season of Stanton’s deal — but the Yankees are one of the few that could plausibly do so. Including Volpe in just about any scenario has understandably been a nonstarter for the Yanks, but they don’t have another prospect on his level, and it seems likely that at least one other club would offer a prospect of that caliber to pry Soto away.
Rangers: Texas didn’t sign Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray to then sit back and hope the rest of a competitive team would bubble up from the farm system. The Rangers are going to be aggressive again this winter — but why wait until then? The outfield at Globe Life Field is bleak beyond Adolis Garcia, whose own woeful OBP issues give the Rangers all the more need to add some steady walks and hits to the lineup. Seager and Semien are going to cost $55-60MM annually on their own, and adding Soto’s final two arb years (plus any potential extension seasons) would give them $80-90MM annually in commitments to just three players. That’s not ideal, but Texas just got a new park and has run $160-165MM payrolls in the past.
Blue Jays: Soto’s prodigious bat would be the perfect cure for a Blue Jays lineup that has surprisingly underwhelmed. Toronto’s lineup skews heavily to the right side of the plate, too, which makes Soto all the more appealing for general manager Ross Atkins and his staff. If there’s a “problem” for the Jays, it’s that their clear top prospect, Gabriel Moreno, shares a position with young Keibert Ruiz, whom the Nationals hope will be their own catcher of the future. Of course, Ruiz hasn’t fully established himself yet, and having a pair of uber-talented catchers would fall squarely into the “nice problem to have” bucket for Washington.
Toronto’s system has been thinned out by trades for Jose Berrios and Matt Chapman (among others), which leaves them with probably the thinnest system of the teams mentioned in this “best fits” section.
Mets: Nats fans would recoil at the idea of Soto ever donning a Mets uniform, and the front office probably doesn’t feel all that differently. However, the Steve Cohen-owned Mets have shown a willingness to outspend any and all parties when the opportunity to acquire elite talent presents itself, and while their system isn’t as deep as some other top fits, they do have a handful of high-end prospects who could conceivably lead a package for Soto.
SNY’s Andy Martino recently wrote that the Nationals are intrigued by names like Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, though they’d likely seek even more talent beyond that trio. Acquiring Soto would put the Mets into the newly created fourth tier of luxury-tax penalization.
Mariners: President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto never met a blockbuster trade scenario he didn’t like. The Mariners have thinned out their once-vaunted farm through graduations and trades in recent years, but the likes of Noelvi Marte, George Kirby and Matt Brash could form the compelling top end of an offer. Seattle has $67MM guaranteed to the 2023 roster, $66MM in 2024 and $49MM in 2025.
A Soto acquisition would be an incredible bow on top of a 14-game winning streak, and pairing him in the Seattle outfield alongside the burgeoning star he toppled in the Home Run Derby — Julio Rodriguez — would give the M’s one of baseball’s brightest one-two punches.
Red Sox: Would the same ownership group that balked at extending Betts turn around and give Soto over $100MM more than what Betts ultimately signed for in Los Angeles? Soto is younger, so perhaps the comfort with a mega-deal would be greater. The Sox also have plenty of high-end prospects to headline a deal (Marcelo Mayer, Brayan Bello, Triston Casas among them). They have $92MM on the 2023 books but will see that drop to $72MM once Xander Bogaerts opts out of his deal at season’s end. The contract status of Bogaerts and third baseman Rafael Devers are already major talking points in Boston, and Soto would add a third source of hand-wringing to that list. This, however, has been a risk-averse ownership group and front office for several years now.
Cardinals: Jordan Walker is the type of headline prospect you’d expect to see in a return for Soto, and the Cards could add value by including a current outfielder (e.g. Dylan Carlson) and several other pitching prospects. The notion of Walker, Carlson, Matthew Liberatore and then some might not sit well with St. Louis fans, but the Cards have a solid crop of quality prospects to pique Washington’s interest. Plus, if they were to seriously entertain a Soto extension, the first season of that theoretical contract would dovetail with the expiration of Paul Goldschmidt’s contract, which will trim an annual $26MM salary off the books.
Giants: The Giants have spent at $200MM levels in the past, but they have just $92MM on the books for the 2023 season. That’ll drop by another $22.5MM if Carlos Rodon opts out of his contact as expected, and Anthony DeSclafani is the only player with a guaranteed contract on the books for 2024. It’s a near blank slate financially, which would afford the Giants among as much opportunity as any club to offer a potential long-term deal. San Francisco has a pair of prospects — Marco Luciano and Kyle Harrison — who ranked among the top 25 in BA’s recent update, while young catcher Joey Bart could hold appeal as a secondary piece. San Francisco is likely to jockey with the Dodgers and Padres atop the NL West for the next few seasons, putting them in a firm win-now window.
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It bears emphasizing that a Soto trade will be immeasurably complicated, even if the Nats are only parting with Soto in the deal. Add in an appealing reliever (e.g. Kyle Finnegan) or even more difficult, a contract like that of Corbin, and the deal is the type that requires overwhelming levels of effort to reach. The Aug. 2 trade deadline is all of two weeks away right now, and while it’s fair to imagine that Rizzo & Co. have had some preliminary talks already, the vast majority of the heavy lifting in any deal is unlikely to have been completed as of yet.
All of that is to say that while the Nats will be open to trades involving Soto, fans shouldn’t view a deal as inevitable. Waiting until the offseason wouldn’t radically reduce Soto’s value, and it’d open up the possibility of teams being able to include talent selected in this summer’s draft as part of the return, thus creating myriad new possibilities for the Nationals to ponder. By that point, there could also be further clarity regarding the potential sale of the team, and with a new owner would come the potential for a new valuation for Soto’s long-term value.
Soto will be one of the most hotly debated names in the game in the next 14 days, but a trade isn’t a given.
Note: The initial version of this post omitted the Giants in error. They’d intended to be included among the best fits; the post was updated after publishing.
As a Cardinals and Blue Jays fan, I am very wary of overpaying for Soto. He’s super-talented, but all that glitters is not gold.
It’s a good thing he already got his ring, because Soto will be the next Trout. Good player that costs too much to build a decent team around.
Angels couldn’t build around trout if he were free
Angels couldn’t build around a free Ohtani and they had Trout! What a frustrating organization (says a White Sox fan).
And Rendon!
It’s very difficult to build around two players making a combined $71M AAV per year, unless you are willing and able to spend like the Dodgers.
The thing that amazes me is this talk of the Nat’s offer having a “low” AAV.
The”lower” AAV is a tradeoff for the 15 year risk the Nats would be taking.
If Soto (Boras) is so obsessed with having the highest AAV for a position player in MLB history, then offer him $370M over 10 years.
I really don’t think any team is dumb enough to offer $37M/per for 15 years.
Angels downfall began when they gave that ridiculous contract to Pujols…. then they made the same mistake with Rendon.
8 years is the maximum any team should go with position players (they have to be 29 or younger) and 6 years is the maximum any team should go for a pitcher. These 10 + years contracts are so ridiculous.
Fever, what you are missing is the fact that the AAV of the Nationals offer was less money than he will make in arbitration in 2024 and was heavily backloaded so Soto would have been making less than the $17.12 million he is making this season in the first year of that 15 year extension in 2023. No player of his caliber takes a cut in pay just to extend with a team and that is what the Nationals were asking him to do.
They knew that he would say no and then they could say, “but look, it was $440 million”. They thought they could get the PR upper hand. Doesn’t look like that approach is working.
How is Trout too expensive to build around when Rendon makes 36M?
It’s not about being too expensive to build around. It’s more about developing homegrown talent to supplement FA spending and vice versa. There’s a lot of luck and skill involved.The Angels can’t catch a break unless it’s someone’s bone.
That Dipoto ruined the Angels farm system forever. It is not that they can’t build a team it is Jerry’s fault.
Would be amazing if Jerry could swing a deal to get him in Seattle. The price of the OF would be crazy but sold out TMobile would defray those costs. Then Julio can get a rematch for the HR contest. Everyday in BP and for the season. I doubt he goes anywhere for 2 years though. The Nats have to sit down with him and get him signed. How many SS are they going to let walk?
If texas gets involved Seattle’s minor league system ranks below texas already plus with rocker and the kid rangers drafted in 4th round who should have been top 15 pick we have probably 8 top 100 prospects plus a glut of inf prospects to choose from plus a possibility of white smith or Taveras to go with them plus no team wants sorry ass kelenic anymore
You also have your new ARod. Seager is making a bunch of money you are in a better spot financially I would imagine. The new stadium and all money could be a bit of a problem.
If Texas gets involved everyone knows how it ends: two years of mediocrity due to no roster depth and then a panic trade to NY where the Rangers still pay half of Soto’s salary in perpetuity. History has a funny way of repeating itself.
@stymedone, but they couldn’t build around Trout when he was cheap, meanwhile the Dodgers are perennial contenders and recent world champions with an expensive Betts, who helped them win.
Nice try.
Since when did the Dodgers enter the World Baseball Classic?
@lordD
Correct, and now that he is expensive,(and declining) they can’t afford to add the additional pieces necessary, like an infield, or catcher, or pitching. No one is getting Soto during his cheap years. They will be getting him @ $20MM plus and then $30MM. If they sign him, who knows how much? Payroll for the rest of the team will be X-Soto. The more Soto makes, the less his team mates will be paid, The weaker his surrounding players, and the young cheap prospects went into the Nationals system, so no help from the minors likely.
Dude, there is not one single team that will bring in less than $290 million in 2022 with all the new TV and streaming deals. Every team can afford a couple $30 million players and still field a competitive team.
The Angels have one of the larger local TV deals in baseball. Going into this season they could afford Trout, Rendon, Upton AND to make $35+ million AAV offers to Scherzer and Bauer.
There are 12-14 teams, depending on who you read, that have more than $400 million in revenue so they can all easily go over $200 million per season in payroll. $71 million on two players leaves $130 million to spend on 24 others. Easy peasy.
No player including Trout is too expensive to build around. The Angels added Rendon and have tried to add other big dollar contracts since signing Trout to his extension.
The reason the Angels suck has nothing to do with Trout, it has to do with a complete inability or unwillingness to sign top pitchers and the inability to develop them from within.
Alright Yankee fans I have a trade offer for you. We will give you Torrens Winker and 2 prospects not in our top 5. We get Trevino. I am joking of course but I fell in love with that guy tonight. You guys got a good one. Can you find another to send to Seattle? The last one went on the MIA train after throwing an ice cream at the manager.
You don’t really know a player until you see him regularly. I knew he was strong at calling games and framing, but I immediately noticed how articulate and engaging he was during postgame interviews, breaking down game planning and pitch selection. He’s my favorite interview on the team. He has a bright future, post his playing career, as a manager or broadcaster.
Cardinals is the perfect fit imo. Walker is the real deal and as good as headliner nats could get as he’s still a year or so away. Then get 2 out of Winn mcgreevy hence and that’s a solid return.
Soto prob sign long term in stl.
Cardinals don’t have the budget to pay Arenado, Goldy, and Soto. Particularly with a pitching staff headed by a 40 year old and most of their best young players and prospects being position players.
Dang I didn’t realize Dewitt had an account on here. Thanks for letting us know sir! Please keep the beer prices down then.
Cardinals have the money. They just tell the fans they don’t and fans believe them.
They are top 5 in attendance every year. They got the money.
It’s pretty well understood these days that attendance is not the primary driver of revenue. Compare the local TV revenue streams of the different markets and you’ll see what i mean.
1. Walker is not going anywhere, neither would Wynn and I believe the cardinals will land Soto. Recent trade history shows top prospects don’t get traded.
2. Gate revenue certainly matters, 3m in attendance is a lot of beer revenue.
3. The cardinals Started a more than $1 billion tv contact with fox sports(now Bally sports) in 2018. They have plenty of money.
Even if the Cardinals could afford to pay him, the Nats would definitely want Walker as part of the package. Someone like Soto being available is unprecedented in recent history. The only one who comes close is Mookie Betts, and he did require a huge package plus needing to take on David Price’s contract.
Yes, the gate revenue matters, which is why the Cardinals can afford upper middle class payrolls, but that TV contract matters even more and is significantly below average.
The Red Sox got Alex Verdugo who was ranked as the 30th best prospect and Jeter Downs who was number 44 and fell of the list the next year. And Connor Wong. I would not call that a huge return and it’s certainly a far stretch from including a current top 10 prospect.
Cards are strongly in the Soto mix. Betts was a 6 months rental.
Soto is team controlled for 2 1/2 years and younger too!
The Cardinals are a TERRIBLE fit! They can’t afford Soto’s arbitration salaries in addition to Goldschmidt and Arenado, and even if they could, they have no need for an outfield upgrade in the first place!
You don’t sell the farm and give up 4+ years of a bright young star like Carlson for something you don’t even need and then be unable to afford to build a decent team around your three superstars! The Angels have already proven this.
A few things; Carlson and Soto are actually the same age of 23. Soto would be in arbitration for the next 3 years which I believe would take them through the end of Goldy’s current contract. So if your main hang-up is potential Carlson production that question really comes down to whether or not you think Carlson or Soto over the next 2.5 years will be better than the other.
Carlson currently makes about $700,000 in salary while Soto’s first arbitration was $17,000,000 for this year. If I remember correctly arbitration salary is mostly based on statistical performance. Soto has been very good this year but the stats are slightly down at the moment. So say he still gets a sizable raise next year and the next call it $20,000,000 and $23,000,000 (TOTAL GUESSES ON MY PART). Simply on expiring contracts Yadi’s $10,000,000 comes off after this year and with other expected expiring contracts it they’re projected payroll would be around $105,000,000 next year; and that includes Goldy and Nolan. Now, you’d potentially still need to find some pitching to replace a Waino and some bullpen leavers and some raises for players like Edman, but the point is the money would be there to keep Soto’s arbitration happy until he reaches free agency in 2025. And in the meantime you get Soto-Goldy-Nolan as your 2-4 hitters for the future.
All-in-all, the money and the prospects make sense but like most big name deals in the Cardinals recent history it mostly comes down to whether or not they think they can keep them long term. Still, 2.5 years of Soto, Goldy, Nolan might be worth rolling the dice there to potentially get another banner.
I look forward to hearing how I’m wrong.
But also of course, Cards need pitching more than anything so it’s probably moot.
I mean, the wildcard here IS the O’s. Maybe the MASN situation impacts such a deal, but if the team is sold relatively soon, could the new owners not care that much? Honestly it sounda stupid to me that the teams wouldn’t be on speaking terms to the point where they wouldn’t at least consider a mutually beneficial transaction.
Doubt it.
Orioles are building a TEAM. They’re not going to put 30-40% of their payroll budget into one player. Plus they’re chock full of young, 2-way OF’s.
If they trade for Soto they’d lose him in 2 years to FA. Meanwhile the young players they traded would be productive and under control for years.
I dunno, Soto technically woln’t need to be paid any more than arb money until 2025, and a lot of the club’s best players will still be arb or pre arb even than.
…but Soto could earn $55-60MM in arbitration over the next two seasons.”
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The Orioles current team payroll is $45m. Their players are young and won’t be getting major raises.
What you’re proposing is for the Orioles to send 3 cost controlled players for one guy that will eat up at least 30-40% of the payroll for 2 years, then walk. They did a lot of work to find and develop 3 quality prospects. Their objective is to be in sustainable contention for years.
Soto is attractive for a team with money that wants to get to the WS in the next 2 years as their core players are aging and/or about to leave in FA, and then go into some sort of a rebuild.
The O’s would gut their system to get Soto and aren’t really loaded at the ML level yet. It makes more sense for teams with a championship ready ML roster and deep system to acquire Soto. Baltimore’s owner isn’t known for his big spending ways either. Seems like there’s too many roadblocks to me but stranger traders have happened, I guess.
I don’t see that at all. BAL has a ton of young talent wherein they would still have plenty even if they deal for Soto. He’s going to get a haul, but their system is loaded, and they already have guys like Adley, Means, Mullins, and Mountcastle as MLB level bulding blocks.
I don’t think the Nationals would trade Soto to the Orioles. It would be a PR nightmare. The Nationals have been put in a position to trade their last remaining marketable player, the last thing they are going to do is trade it to a team that shares its tv market. The same reason why the Mets and Yankees or A’s and Giants dont make blockbuster trades.
DarkSide, I think this logic works for the O’s or any other team that has a deep farm system and a commitment to go all-in now. You could get Soto, keep him for the 2+ years, and if he doesn’t fit in the long-term budget, flip him again just before he hits FA to reload. It’s risky, but wouldn’t it be a fun ride?
I assure you no one is trading for Soto to “flip” him. They are trading for him to use him for 3 potential playoff pushes. They aren’t going to get more for him when he’s closer to FA and the false hope of an extension has been all but squashed.
Well the MASN dispute is costing the Nats millions of dollars a year…and they gave been in DC for 15+ years, so it adds up fast. The only Soto deal between the Nats and Os that would be mutually beneficial for the Nats is a haul of prospects and the MASN dispute resolved. Angelos will never do that, so the Os aren’t getting Soto.
Maybe the Lerners would sign off without MASN being resolved if the Os traded every single one of their top 30 prospects. I legit think that is how much the Lerners hate Angelo’s.
I would love to see it…but I don’t think Mariners would do it. Ownership is more concerned about the bottom line than winning and it’s going to take about a billion dollars to lock up Soto and Rodriguez long-term. Not going to deplete your farm system for a rental, either. He will go to the Yankees or Dodgers because the rich get richer in baseball.
You don’t have to make this deal feeling the pressure to have to extend Soto… You get him for 3 potential WS runs..
See, this is why I’m wary about the Yankees trading for him. Boras is notorious for pushing his clients to hit the free agent market to generate a bidding war for them, so I think it’ll be difficult for whoever trades for him to extend him; for what it’s going to cost to get him to begin with no team should make the trade unless he agrees to an immediate extension. If he won’t sign off on an extension they should just wait until he does become a free agent and then bid on him while keeping the prospects.
Every team should be wary of jettisoning their future for 2 years of Soto. The haul will be epic and unprecedented.
I completely agree. Soto is a rare talent, but no player in the history of the game is so good that an organization would be justified in crippling the franchise in surrendering top prospects AND a burgeoning contract. No player is worth that.
I don’t know where people get the idea the Ms owners are about the bottom line. You do realize they were sold a few years back and the new ownership bought into Jerry’s rebuild don’t you?
That rebuild is taking root right now. Injuries and not performing have slowed it a bit but they are making up for it. I guess since we didn’t go out and pick up every FA out there they don’t want to win.
The comments that money doesn’t matter they want to bring a WS to Seattle. They have built the team from the farm system. I expect a couple trades a pitcher and hopefully a 2nd bm that can hit a little.
This deal would be fun to talk about but with the prospects you would have to give up would hurt the team long run. Too many holes you can’t fill from your system would be FAs and they are expensive.
We have how many outfielders right now? Winker, Jrod, Trammel, Kelenic, Lewis, Haniger. 1-2 of those would need to go in the trade for Soto. Likely a combination of Haniger, Lewis, Kelenic with it likely being Kelenic and Lewis along with a pitcher. The question comes down to if it’s worth it for Soto and would ownership sign off on Signing Soto long term in the next year knowing the other young talent that would need to be paid in the next 5 years. I don’t think it’s impossible but I also am not sold on our need to do it.
Hey Seattle fans get it through your thick skulls nobody wants sorry as he’ll kelenic.
I think it’s gonna come down to LAD, SF, TEX, with NYM, SEA, and Tampa as long shots.
@Dodger Dog- if Soto has his say it’s between the Dodgers and the Yankees. Those are Juan’s two preferences supposedly.
@CJ-Where’d you hear that?
Source: “dude trust me”
@tippin- check out the recent videos on CBS sports. It’s definitely legit. Neon Cop doesn’t know what he’s talking about, as usual.
Does he want to play in New York or for the Yankees?
Big difference.
@Jonthunder- he wants to play for the Yankees or the Dodgers. Those 2 teams are his preference. He WILL not be traded to the Mets, sir.
You emphasized the wrong word there, champ.
Soto doesn’t get a say.
Of course he does.
If the acquiring team believes he wants to stay and will be willing to sign an extension they will pay much more. He will absolutely be involved in the process
Never just assume the player wants to stay else you end up like the Cardinals with Jason Heyward or the Padres with Justin Upton.
The Cardinals never assumed Jason Heyward was staying, and they’re ultimately glad he didn’t. That was a fair trade for one year of Heyward from the beginning and has only fallen in St. Louis favor since then as Shelby Miller’s career derailed.
Lmao every Yankee fan thinks it comes down to “their” team.
Seattle and Tampa as his preferences, ok thats a made up list.
You lost me at Tampa…. no freaking way unless they are getting a new stadium or moving.
Just my opinion….. this has AJ Preller written all over it…. I say Padres, Dodgers or Giants.
The Yankees should trade for him and walk away from Judge…. but that is a stretch.
The Mets need to do whatever is necessary to get Soto to Queens. Pay him $40mm/yr or more if necessary for an extension. Do it.
The Mets don’t have a top 10 farm system and are a division rival, while 8 of the other teams have top 10 systems.
It’s hard to see that happening without annihilating the Mets farm, for years.
The Mets have the the second highest ranked prospect in baseball as well as 3 other highly regarded infield prospects, all of which are set to hit the big leagues in the next year. If they decide to include Francisco Alvarez it’ll be hard for the nats to say no.
Can’t include Alvarez, Baty, Mauricio.
This really doesn’t feel like a situation where heavily involved teams are going to be able to say “anyone but …”
The Mets are just outside of the top ten. They have pretty weak pitching, but I think they’d have the prospects to get it done. But I do agree, it would decimate their farm system. At least three of Alvarez, Mauricio, Baty, Vientos, or Alex Ramirez would be in that deal.
I mean, except that during the draft, MLB listed the Mets as the #8 farm system. Updated due to lots of graduation this year. As many have said they have the #2 and a mid twenties plus three more in or around the top 100 depending on the site. They have more than enough to pull it off plus two young MLB pitchers in Peterson and Megill. It’s not if. it’s if Cohen wants to go for broke now. They can outbid anyone if they choose to
The Mets are eyeing Judge, not Soto.
@Senioreditor- the Mets have already said they don’t have interest in Judge, besides Alonso and Aaron don’t get along very well. The 2nd best team in NY wants Soto, they’re best chance to get him is if he hits free agency, they don’t have the prospects to get a trade done, and the Nationals will never trade him in the NL East anyway.
“besides Alonso and Aaron don’t get along very well”
This is 100% made-up. How do you even say this stuff?
Hahahaha…why? Because Aaron doesn’t go meditate by staring at a wall and do dead lifts on national TV before a novelty home run competition or because Aaron would be humble and laugh about someone else winning and not throw a fit essentially acting like a 3-year old “but I wanted to win, mommy said I was the best”. Pete should change his name to Richard.
Someone saw them bickering at Applebee’s.
@VonPurpleHayes- are you from NY? Do you live here? Exactly, so how in the hell would know what goes on here? You don’t, so stick with your loser Phillies. And research what Alonso said about Judge a few years ago. I don’t really care, about your opinions boss. I need facts.
I am from NYC and still live here. Oh and guess what? That doesn’t make me any more knowledgeable about Judge and Alonso’s personal lives. They hardly play each other. You’re spreading nonsensical gossip.
Do you just sit around eating cheese balls out of the barrel thinking of garbage and then staying them as facts on this board? You have a name of Captain Judge and sit here making up stories about a guy that would replace your hero. You are one weird dude with no sense of business understanding let alone baseball. Just stop. You make Metsfan22 and the idiot Marlin fan base look good with this drivel
Rizzo would be foolish to deal Soto in the same division unless the return was overwhelmingly the best package available.
Would be more stupid to pass up on the best prospect return if it does come from a division rival for a player the Nats are probably just going to bring back in FA in 2 years.
The Nats are already getting crushed for letting Harper walk and trading Turner AND Scherzer.
You think the new ownership wants Soto traded to the Mets?
They’ll already lose a ton of fans for trading him…
It depends on the gap in value. If the Mets offer is the best, but only 5% better than the next then they will take slightly lesser value. If the offer is 50% better then I could see the Nats not caring about it being in division. I have a hard time seeing the Mets making far and away the best offer unless they agree to take on Corbin and Stras.
If the Lerners are selling the team, do they really care a lot whether the fans don’t like them?
The pending ownership will.
That depends on their business model. The new owners might prefer to inherit a rebuild without the pressure to make a half-billion-dollar investment to keep Soto.
Mets do not have the best player in their farm system. After the top 3 or 4, then it is a sharp drop off. of talent.
@Jonthunder What if they get all the Mets’ best prospects then bring Soto back as a FA after 2024?
The pending owners — if they over after Soto is dealt away — will only be concerned with buying out the Nats Park lease so they can move to Nashville or Las Vegas ASAP.
@ctyank7
*take over
Going to be hard to trade Strasburg because of his no trade clause.
Then Mets fans will burn the city to the ground lol.
Braves will make sure nobody moves to Nashville, also the A’s have eyes for Las Vegas.
Losing Soto is going to be a huge PR hit regardless of where he goes. If the Mets offer him the best package, that’s where he’ll be IMO. But I still have the Giants as getting Soto.
Chucky… Naw. There will be a team in Nashville. It’s gonna happen.
How come? Giants have been loath to commit any money to big stars in the Zaidi era, and they’d have to gut the future of their top ten farm system. The team needs a lot more than just Soto to be truly competitive. I don’t see them as real candidates.
@forwhomartbelltolled- it’s so you to be talking about the best package that’s available. Is that all you think about? Smh
@daledantony- your right about the price. Probably $45 million annually, but wrong about the team. The Nationals will not trade Soto to a team in the NL East. Besides the Mets don’t have the prospects to get it done either.
And the Yankees do? You’re a joke, sir.
Like the Mets, the Yankees have four prospects in the top 100. Both teams have the prospects to do this. Of the two, it seems to me more likely that the Mets would go for it.
Yankees have the 9th ranked system.
The Mets aren’t in the top 10.
So, yes, they do.
Yankees need to be focused on getting Castillo, the pitcher who can help get them past Houston and into The World Series.
That deal is going to cost them either Volpe or Peraza, Andujar or Florial and Waldichuk.
There won’t be much left for Cashman to deal beyond Dominguez in a prospective Soto trade.
@ctyank7- I feel like trading for Soto is a lot more important then trading for Castillo. Soto will help us get past Houston no worries. It also gives us leverage with Judge’s free agency. If Aaron wants over $40 million annually for 8 years he’s likely gone.
The Mets have the #2 prospect and three more in the top 100. The question is whether they’ll part with enough of them to make a deal. If the Lerners are advised by their investment bankers that trading Soto won’t hurt their chances of selling the team (or might even help), they might not care whether he’s moved within the division.
Its never who has the best prospects. Its always the team that is willing to trade the better prospects. Everything changes when you remove “untouchables” from the prospect lists. I.e. Detroit did not have the best farm when they acquired Cabrera. They were just willing to trade from the farm they had. Others, not so much.
Stevie Cohen’s beautiful money.
Completely left the Giants out? Or did I miss it? They have a good farm system ( though their high end prospects are still in A ball) and a lot of payroll flexibility to absorb a bad contract
Came to post. Giants are a perfect fit in terms of prospects+money+open position.
I’m terrified of this possibility
Dodger Dog – I wouldn’t be too scared. Soto is a great player, no doubt. I say, let them gut their farm system for one player. They’ll still have a bunch of holes to fill with no young talent to fill them.
Truthfully I see him and Strasburg landing in San Diego. They have the prospects, will somehow unload Hosmer or Myers, and get both Soto and Strasburg and when Tatis is healthy, that’s going to be a big problem with Tatis Soto Machado.
Strasburg has a no trade clause, but think he would waive it to go back to SD.
“… will somehow unload Hosmer or Myers.”
LOL!
I have a feeling Patrick Corbin could revive his career with San Francisco.
It’s a supreme pitcher’s park and their coaches seem very good, so, no better place for that.
San Francisco is playing as a hitters park this season.
espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
Last season it was slightly a pitchers park.
espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2021
How that affects a pitcher depends on his style of pitching though. If you look at the Home Run column, you’ll see that Oracle Park is still near the bottom in yielding home runs.
Since 2019, Corbin has the fourth-highest HR/FB rate of all qualified starters, and, not surprisingly, only one pitcher, Robbie Ray, has given up more long balls in that time span. A park that suppresses home runs should benefit Corbin.
Generally, you’ll find Oracle near the bottom in the Home Run park factor from year to year.
Juan Soto, the next Barry Bonds? Interesting story line.
It’s interesting that all 29 teams including the Nats are mentioned but not the Giants.
And really, the Giants can offer the Nats controllable MLB talent, high end prospects, mid tier prospects, the acquisition of bad contacts, and they have the financial flexibility and the need for a franchise star with the retirement Posey.
That was an error on our part. They were on there in Best Fits and accidentally cut as we tweaked the layout just before posting. They’re back on there now.
Much anticipated article. Thanks Steve!
Cardinals, Rangers, or Padres would be great. All 3 need a major boost. Yankees won’t spend the prospects. Also hard to see LA doing that, based on recent Friedman comments, but then again they’re an extremely insecure team.
They have 1st place pretty secure.
Everyday they stay in 1st just makes your silly overrated comments look worse.
they’re a good team for sure, but they’ve also had the easiest strength of schedule so far. don’t be silly…look at gonsolin getting rocked by good hitting right now
You’re talking about a team loaded with all-stars and a perennial contender.
Maybe if this was the first time they had success and not much talent you would have a leg to stand on but to any serious baseball fan you sound uninformed.
Go Solon was their 4th best starter coming into the season.
Dodgers will be alright bro
*Gonsolin not go solon
I’m basing my view on the last 10 or so years. The same narrative plays out each time: LA gets a ton of hype from people like you, they win 100+ regular season games, then choke in the postseason. Rinse, repeat.
That’s why everyone ignores or disrespects you in the comments.
Your bias is showing
Ignores or disrespects? Everyone? Not sure what you’ve been looking at, but you’re engaging with my comment right now. Hate to break it to you, but everyone on this board is biased. Bless your little heart.
I’m choosing disrespect not ignoring you. I know everyone has a bias but they don’t show it by spamming troll comments. How many articles today have people called you out on?
What’s your favorite team?
Called out on? Uh, none? Why are you so sensitive? I’m not name-calling anyone or spamming, just pointing out some basic facts. Unlike many of you, I’m not sold on pointless hype. Worry about yourself.
Never answered who you’re favorite team is. Pretty cowardly
Never answered who you are favorite team is?
Cowardly? You’re on a roll today with the BS. Didn’t name one because I don’t have one; I just enjoy the game. It ain’t that deep.
Feel free to stay off my comments in the future unless you wanna add something of substance.
“who you are favorite team is”? this doesn’t even make grammatical sense, wow…
I’m not jumping into people’s comments to complain like you & these other 2. “cryptonerd” really says it all.
Weird that you won’t say who your favorite team is. My guess is the Giants based on your Dodger hatred.
Scroll up 3 centimeters. I don’t have a favorite team, I just enjoy the game. Not complicated.
I scrolled up three centimeters. I don’t believe you. There isn’t a fan of any sport that doesn’t have a favorite team. You are lying.
Guess I’m a unicorn then. Consider yourself blessed.
Everybody play nice. There’s cookies and ice cream in the break room.
Cookies!!!!
The Cardinals already have a great offense (and defense). Last I checked, Soto can’t pitch.
Did I overlook them, or where the Giants the only team that didn’t get mentioned?
You overlooked it.
Tbf they weren’t included in the first post; added later by the OP.
I would count out Yankees . If George still around , Soto a Yankee already
If George was still kickin’, so would Correa and Judge would have his extension.
If George were still around he’d die of embarrassment.
I think Yankees fans need to grow comfortable with that reality that a Soto trade is costing Volpe or Dominguez and then some.
The Nats will demand both and realistically get one, in any trade.
As deep and good as the system is, Soto commands a premiere prospect, no matter what.
They’d be justified in asking for and receiving both.
Volpe, Dominguez and waldichuk, and that maybe still doesn’t get it done.
if you take on Corbin, maybe
With Corbin, Nats get Volpe and not Waldichuk.
Dominguez remains out of the deal.
@Jonthunder- ignore his posts. I love your thoughts, please keep them coming!
I can’t fathom how so many Yankees fans seem to consider about a half dozen of their prospects entirely untouchable. I mean, Volpe’s probably the closest to a lock to be good of the bunch, but is anyone else in that system even there?
Yankee fans are the same people who booked Greg Bird a plaque in Cooperstown
No yankee fans hate Greg bird Brian Cashman has a secret man crush on the guy thats all that was .
Yankees fans have been conditioned by Hal S. over the past decade that they want to remain under the LTT thus the prospect-hugging. I’m not high on blue-chips until they can perform at the big show. I’d trade Volpe and/or Dominguez in a heartbeat if that also allows a window for a Soto extension. That would also mean that the door has closed on Judge resigning.
For Soto, no prospect should be untouchable. How rare does a generational talent hit the trade market? There’s also no guarantee that a prospect will hit their full potential.
And no guarantee that the team will win a championship with Soto or that Soto won’t test the market.
Volpe can go.
@Jonthunder- Volpe is going nowhere. It would likely be Dominguez, Peraza, Schmidt, Waldichuk, Pereira, Vasquez and others going back to the Nats for Soto and Corbin.
No Volpe, no deal. The gNats need a shortstop
Then no Dominguez, but take the rest.
@SoCalBrave- and the Nats can get one, that’s more major league ready now in Peraza. Hello?
And then lose Judge at the end of the year.
Ha! Remember when Florial was “untouchable”
(Now he is rated the Yanks 29th prospect).
Cashman and Steinbrenner and Yankees fans vastly over rate their prospects
and under rate the prospects and players that their opponents are trading.
That is why the Yankees could not close the trade deals for Verlander, Cole and others. NYY are offering wholesale prices for high retail players.
That works sometimes when teams are desperate to salary dump players
like the Marlins with Stanton.
But, as a general rule, teams can get actual value for their traded players and sometimes higher value in bidding wars.
The Yankee fans on here are WILD. This is Frazier and Andujar all over again. For some reason in a being a part of the NYY organization magically makes their prospects more valuable than comparable prospects in other orgs.
It’s not only the fans Nichols. Their media leads them down this path of future HoF
One? Any Yankee deal will include both and then some…
@Wadz- that’s false, the Yankees will have to trade either Dominguez or Volpe+ in a Soto trade, but not both. They definitely have enough top prospects to get a Soto trade done if they want him.
Definitely both. Abrams was considered a better prospect than Volpe and the Padres are expected to trade both him and Hassell, who is a better prospect than Dominguez, plus another top prospect for Soto.
@Pads Fans- the Nationals are not getting both. I can’t see the Nats wanting Abrams and Hassell “two single hitter top prospects” for Soto. Dominguez and Volpe are both much better then Abrams and Hassell. Good luck getting Soto with those guys. Better add another prospect with power to get Soto.
Then the Yankees are not getting Soto. Its really that simple. It will take both of those guys being on the table to even get a conversation started for Soto.
Abrams was 6th and Volpe was 9th before Abrams graduated.
Abrams had a better SLG and OPS in the minors than Volpe.
Dominguez is currently 39th and Hassell is 23rd.
Hassell has a better SLG and OPS than Dominguez.
Scouts think Abrams is a better prospect than Volpe and Hassell is better than Dominguez. Only Yankees fans would argue those facts.
Capt — that depends on what the other offers are. If the Yankees refuse to part with both teams like the Padres, Mariners, Dodgers, Cardinals etc can top a Yankees offer that isnt Volpe + Dominguez + 2 more good prospects. I mean those teams can top that offer anyways, just easier to do if Yankees make any 2 player combo off limits.
You need both. One for each year of control you get with Soto
Volpe has as many HRs this season as Abrams had in his entire MiLB career (in half as many games), so that ranking sounds more like a byproduct of the age difference and closeness to the majors.
Capt is right. The Nats are just gonna give Soto to the yanks for anyone because they’re the yanks. Maybe the yanks can get Frazier back and do a straight up trade.
What terrible logic lol.
If the Nats create trades as well as you do, they’re gonna end up with just Gallo.
Abrams had a .782 OPS in AA.
Volpe had an .812 OPS in AA.
Hassell is a year older than Dominguez and had a .897 OPS in high A, after ge was demoted from high A.
Dominguez just got promoted to high A, after having a .814 OPS in A, because he’s been improving rapidly.
The rankings are affected by closeness to MLB, and both Yankees are younger and have much higher ceilings.
The Padres would be better off keeping both Hassell and Abrams.
Both could play any of the 3 OF positions, hit and hit for power with speed.
Hassell is a Kyle Tucker type player only he plays CF also.
Hassell hits for higher average than Tucker,
Abrams is very young and will produce more power as he grows and works out with weights,
Dominguez and Volpe are overly hyped Yankees prospects
and are not better than Hassell and Abrams (is that some kind of a joke?!). Remember Florial?! He was supposed to be the next Mantle also?!
Hassell and Adams are two of the top prospects in baseball.
@Pads Fans- I really don’t care about what scouts think. I know that Soto is not being traded to the Friars. Good luck taking on Corbin’s big contract in the trade. Can the Pads absorb that?
Pads have well funded ownership. They have salaries coming off the books for next year. Pads could trade someone else to make room like one of their higher priced starters etc.. Ownership has deep pockets” and a “pitchers park”. Not sure that the Padres would have to take Corbin. If the Nats insist and if it means going to the World Series a few times in the next 2..5 years, then ownership might bite the bullet, take the losses and make that deal.
Of course, they would prefer a straight up deal for Soto.
Excuse me….Hassell and Abrams.
Captain Judge99…Volpe and Dominguez are “much better” than Abrams and Hassell?
Oh boy…..need to screen shot this one!
Mayo and Callis have said the MLB rankings are not effected by the players closeness to the majors, just their projected value.
Abrams spent his age 21 season in AAA/MLB and had a .507 slg, .871 OPS, and .143 OPS+ in AAA. Volpe spent his age 21 season in AA and had a .461 slg, .812 OPS and 127 OPS+. Abrams was higher ranked than Volpe for a reason. Hassell is in A+ ball and has a .876 OPS and 146 OPS+. Dominguez is in A ball with an .814 OPS and 112 OPS+ and has not played in A+ ball yet. Hassell is ranked higher than Dominguez for a reason.
That said, I would take ANY of those guys as the Cubs top prospect. Davis just doesn’t seem to be progressing.
People keep commenting on the Nationals getting both, but that just doesn’t seem all that likely. Either guy is a headliner, and most trade partners know that they can get the value they want without blowing up the deal by asking for both. Soto likely comes with a $400M+ price tag OR a lesser package.
It’s funny how the same people who say that the Yankees overvalue their prospects A) despise the team and B) undervalue their prospects and demand they all go, in every proposal.
They have the 9th best farm system and Dominguez isn’t even 1 of their top 2 prospectus, for all those saying it will take the top 2 lol.
Soto comes with 2+ years of team control. No trade is going to be contingent on signing him long term. Its going to be based on the production the team can get from him in those 2+ seasons.
Maybe. If teams know he’s a rental, they’ll want to pay less.
2+ season rental? no wonder Blockbuster went out of business
Soto is going on the free agent auction block in a few years.
Boras wants to set a new record MLB contract.
Soto and Boras are gambling he does not get hurt or slump.
Teams trading for Soto are only guaranteed 2 to 2 1/2 years of production
for a handful of their best young players and prospects.
That is a steep price to pay for all but, maybe, 4 or 5 teams max.
@Jonthunder No, teams don’t bake in some sort of expectation that the player will sign an extension when they trade for him. And with 2 years of control after this one they don’t even really NEED to extend Soto. If you can’t make a deep playoff run in 3 tries with him then you probably shouldn’t be trading for him anyway.
Sure, teams do that, all the time: think of how many times have we seen teams requesting windows to negotiate extensions.
@Jonthunder HUGE difference between making the trade contingent on an extension than making the trade with no extension and just assuming an extension will happen later.
All of the surplus value in a Soto trade comes in 2022-24 anyway.
2.33 years of control is not a rental. Its 16-18 WAR of value.
I don’t think the Nats are worried about “blowing up a Yankees deal” since the have Soto, a highly valuable commodity, and they have 5-6 other teams bidding at least.
“Volpe AND Dominguez and then some.”
There, I fixed it for you
No
That is what the Nats will be asking for.
Yankees will not do that.
Yankees will not trade for Soto.
@SportsFan0000- just because the Nationals are asking for teams 4 top prospects, doesn’t mean they’re getting them either. Remember that.
Maybe, maybe not. But, they will get a very strong package with a very minimal of 2 top 50 prospects and more than that most likely. I can see the Nats getting at least 4 promising prospects, young players with big upside back.
I think we can all agree on this.
@Pads Fans- Nah you fixed nothing as usual. Pass.
@Jonthunder- I agree with you 100%. Yes it’s always normal to ask for both of a teams top prospects. To me, Volpe is the Yankees top prospect, then it’s Dominguez, then Peraza. That said in order to sign Soto to an extension the Nationals got to take some salary back for taking Corbin also. The best way for the Yankees to do that is by including Aaron Hicks and Joey Gallo in this trade along with top prospects Dominguez, Peraza, Schmidt, Waldichuk or Wesneski, and Pereira. Hicks starts until Pereira or Dominguez is ready. He makes $10.5 yearly, no biggie. The Nats pay Gallo’s contract for the rest of this year, and then he walks away as a free agent. This trade definitely trumps the Padres offer for all they’re “single hitting All-stars” that nobody really wants.
I wouldn’t dismiss Hassell’s power, but Abrams has looked more like Tyler Wade than Aaron Judge. Taking Corbin on makes sense, so they can preserve depth and pursue an arm. The obvious stumbling block is not other teams wanting the Nationals to be too greedy to trade with MYY; it’s Hal Steinbrenner being cheap. They SHOULD trade for Soto, eat Gallo’s or Hick’s salary, sending Volpe, Florial, and top prospects back, sign Juan to an extension, and extend Judge.
Corbin has ~2 years left, and Chapman, Britton, and Gallo are gone, after 22. That’s before any other trades or expiring contracts. Also, Donaldson’s $25M should be gone after 23. If Hicks goes, they clear $65+ by 24, and a $35M desk for Judge would only represent a $15M raise.
@Jonthunder- why do you care about the Padres prospects so much, anyway? No way their getting Soto and taking back Corbin. If the Yankees really want Soto they’ll get him, since they have the makings of a deal. No worries man.
“Only” a $15MM raise. So the price for a solid Closer or OF. Nice use of the word “Only”!
Can you name the last 23 or 24 year old player with a career 160 OPS+ and 2 or more seasons of team control that was traded? I can’t. I don’t think its ever happened.
The Dodgers traded for 1 season of the 27 year old Betts, who was a career 134 OPS+ hitter at the time, and took on a Corbin-like deal in Price and still gave up 2 top 50 prospects plus Jeter Downs.
Soto has 2 plus seasons of team control, is a much better hitter, and he is only 23. He hasn’t even peaked yet.
The Nationals will probably ask for Volpe as well, as they should.
His attitude and holier than thou attitude is not becoming of him. Yes, he’s one of the absolute best players in the game, but I hope he doesn’t come to St. Louis. Ownership here is generally pretty frugal. I can’t see any trade for Soto coming to fruition.
STL has a good mix of prospects & MLB ready players, though. I could see it happening! At least the 2.5 year rental part.
With what money? Are you going to pay Soto’s salary for the next two years?
Even if that weren’t an issue, the Cardinals would ultimately be better off with their 4+ years of Carlson and what they get from the top level prospects like Walker that they get to keep.
Carlsons ceiling is Stephan Piscotty. I’m sure the Nationals wouldn’t be keying in him as part of any trade. I’d have to believe they would prefer 2.5 years of Tyler O’Niel instead.
Arenado. Goldshmidt.
Arenado and Goldschmidt aren’t signed for a half billion each for 15 years.
No, but they are signed for enough that the Cards can’t afford $20M+ each for Soto’s next two years on top of that.
No one is signed for a half billion for 15 years.
Soto for Bryan Reynolds jk
WAS gets: Cortes, Volpe, Peraza, Andujar, and Gallo
NYY gets: Corbin, Soto
Decent start but why do you guys always ruin it with including Gallo?
Nats aren’t taking Gallo back
@forwhomartbelltolled – Gallo’s defense can’t be overlooked. He’s won gold gloves and is only being paid 10M and will be a free agent after the season.
Exactly yanks. Why would the Nats take on an expiring contract on a 1 dimensional player when they’re trying to let prospects audition?
NY would be better off paying all of Gallo’s contract and trying to find a prospect to add to the Soto deal.
Gallos inclusion makes no sense to me.
Gallo is included because Corbin is included; bad contract for bad contract. The Yankees would be taking on much more salary-wise by getting Corbin whereas WAS could just let Gallo go to free agency and not be on the hook for any future of Gallo’s salary
I think the Nats would rather just swallow the Corbin contract than include it in a Soto trade.
It still doesn’t make sense for a rebuilding team like the nats. Why wouldn’t NY just cut him and decrease the prospect cost on Soto?
Yank fans are desperate to get rid of Gallo but Cashman hasn’t been so far.
NY is one of the richest teams and saving $5 million at the cost of more prospects shouldn’t appeal to them in a trade of this size
@Yanks2- I agree if the Yankees got to take Corbin back with Soto then expect not just Gallo but Hicks to included with top prospects Dominguez, Peraza, Schmidt, Waldichuk, Pereira, and Randy Vasquez. Keep in mind the Nationals will have to take some salary back with the Yankees taking on Soto and Corbin’s big contracts. I would offer Soto a $540 million contract over the next 12 seasons to complete the trade.
The Nats would be getting Volpe plus Peraza. As well as Andujar who plays outfield and had a lot of upside still but it’s been hindered by the fact that he hasn’t gotten enough playing time in NY. The Nats could build around those 3 players
It’s a pipedream that the Yankees will get Soto but I just don’t see it realistically happening as much as I’d love Soto. I see him staying in the NL for some reason. Maybe some lower market team will just outbid everyone else, who knows.
It’s sad because the Yankees could afford Judge, Cole, Stanton, Trout, and Soto but Steinbrenner won’t do it because he’s cheap. If the Yankees do somehow swing a trade for Soto before the trade deadline, it almost makes them guaranteed WS contenders.
Hahaha find a trade discussion and you will find a Yankees fan trying to sell Andujar
That guy is a throw in on a Soto deal, not someone who moves the needle meaningfully
They mismanaged Andujar by not playing or trading him.
This isn’t the NBA; the Nats certainly don’t have to take any salary back, and they aren’t going to be interested in doing the Yankees favors. If the Yankees FO is foolish enough to try to use a trade for the most valuable commodity made available during our lifetimes to shed some salary, they won’t be getting Soto.
@mlb1225- the Nationals have already said that Corbin would have to be included in any Soto trade. Which definitely makes Soto less appealing in a trade for any team.
Gallo sucks and he always has. Loved all the Yankees fans referring to him as “elite” this past offseason. Marquee example of flawed modern baseball logic.
Nah he doesn’t suck. He won 2 gold gloves and had always hit tons of HRs
I’m saying. Gallo was an abysmal offensive player except the few hits he got every week for us. You want guys like that putting the ball in play not striking out or walking with a homer sprinkled in. I was pleasantly surprised when I saw the return for him.
That’s essentially what the NYY lineup does – strike out or hit tons of home runs. Seems this year is different and they’re on a historic pace this season in all other categories
@yanks2
“Will be a free agent at the end of the year.”
You give the exact reason for why adding Gallo does nothing for the Nationals. He provides no benefit for the Yankees, so why would it help the Nats, a team that is not playing for this year, and could give those ABs to a young prospect? Same thing with Andujar. Poor defensive player, who has used up his options bouncing from the minors to NY’s IL over the last 3-4 years. If the player doesn’t have at least 5 years of control, the Nats won’t be interested.
A .168 batting ave disagrees with you. In the past, Gallo has been ok. This year, sorry, he sucks!
Trade out Gallo for Wedilchuk (Don’t know how to say his name) or whatever and Andujar for another pitcher. Nats don’t want players like that and you are still keeping Dominguez.
Take out Gallo and add in a pitching prospect. I think Andujar in that deal is fine because it gives him a chance to figure it out in a new setting and get regular playing time, but the Nats are not going to want a guy on an expiring contract.
You’re right. I didn’t realize Andujar still had 3 years of club control left
I’m not so sure that a World Series contender is going to take on Corbin over Cortes, when they just lost Severino.
It’s a great place to start for a Soto trade, but is Castillo in the bag? Schmidt getting called up?
If you had included Waldichuk instead of Gallo you would have hit the nail on the head.
Guardians
Wrote it earlier……
Soto is a 2 – 2.4 year rental. That is what he’ll bring back in trade.
The team getting him might have exclusive negotiating rights for that time, but Scott Boras likes his star clients go go free agent so he can pit FO/ownerships against one another to run the price up. I’d guess that negotiations for an extension would start at $500m over 11-12 years. Not too many franchises are open to that.
That’s a ludicrous assumption. Soto is 23. If you want to sign him for the rest of his career, you must pay him at the top of the current market. 36M a year, 12-14 years. Not 45M a year. 500M comes in at year 14…
If you don’t, he’s already making 17M with two raises coming. He’s not making 700K like Tatis was
There has to be a trade off for the security of a long term contract. Get the high dollars on a shorter term deal, or take less AAV on a long term. Or give the club an opt out.(never going to happen)
Simply put, no there does not. Not for a 23 year old who will be free to choose his next home at 25, and have nearly 80M in career earnings already in the bank
He owes the Nationals no discount of any type
Jays trading Teo to bring in prospects to then add to their package for Soto makes sense. Clears a spot for him to play along with more certainty into next years roster (hopefully keep Lourdes too since he’s controlled longer than Teo)
The Padres and Mariners both look like the best fits that can provide the Nats MLB ready pitching and a combo of unproven MLB ready and high end A ball talent..
Pads – Abrams, Gore, Hassel, Wood
Mariners – Kirby, Kelenic, Marte, Hancock
Both great foundations for a Soto deal.. and two teams with the motivation.. Padres have a GM that doesn’t shy away from the splash… and should be feeling the desperation to make due on this window.. Mariners window is opening.. They have the longest playoff drought in pro sports.. imagine Soto and J Rod..
If the press starts mentioning a Padres deal, the Dodgers will panic & try to swoop in. Preller needs to keep it quiet.
Let them swoop in lol. The Dodgers swooping in on Scherzer and Turner ended up benefitting the Padres in the end.
Good point…
????
Padres missed the playoffs so not seeing how it helped them.
Because the Dodgers gave up a bunch of their best prospects then failed to make the World Series and then Scherzer (who everyone was SO SURE would sign an extension) just left and there is a good chance Turner does the same this coming offseason.
The Dodgers have a seemingly endless stream/supply of top, young prospects with big upsides. They have won their Division the last 8-9 years, draft near the end of the 1st round and still, consistently, produce rookie of the year candidates more often than not.
The Mookie Betts deal worked out fine for the Dodgers.
The Dodgers got what they were looking for in Scherzer and Turner.
Scherzer signed elsewhere.
Turner could still resign with the Dodgers.
If not, then the Dodgers will just plug another top young player or prospect in and not miss a beat next year.
I prefer their aggressive approach to the timid approach taken by
the Yankees and Cashman who over values his prospects and when their value tanks, he gets stuck with Andjuhar, Frasier, Florial etc…
Go ask Andrew Friedman if he would take the Scherzer deal back if he could and I guarantee you he would say yes in less than a second. That the Dodgers are doing just fine without Ruiz, Gray and whoever else was in that trade is beside the point. Those players could have been traded for something else.
Turner has expressed his dislike for southern California, so you I could see him moving on even if the Dodgers come up with a great offer.
Man, I really don’t think we’ll come off George…
Mike Rizzo is going to demand an MLB ready rookie pitcher in this.. A Padres or Mariners Soto deal isnt getting done without Gore or Kirby..
I agree, on the MLB ready thing or close to it at least. I absolutely 100% agree on Emerson Hancock and Kelenic being in this deal. If WAS won’t make the deal without Kirby involved, idk if Jerry would pull the trigger.
Who can say… Gore and Kirby are both unproven enough but MLB ready where its plausible… I cant think of a package for the Mariners that gets it done without Kirby.. Rizzo needs a MLB young starter he can immediately plug in for this deal to happen..I don’t think Brash has the pull…
And I mean its Trader Jerry.. a 20 year playoff drought and at least 3 years of Soto + J Rod in the OF… enticing.. Mariners have the money too for a possible extension.
All speculation. Those reports of a “Herschel Walker” type package is pretty standard price driving fodder. Whoever deals for him is also dealing for a Scott Bore Ass possessing a TON of leverage having just turned down what he turned down, and what it will take out of the farm to get him.
I’m really fixated on this one man, it just fits really well, I KNOW there is a package there somehow to get him to the northwest. I’m trying to temper my expectations, but we are buzzing over here man. We know Jerry is trying to get it done.
Good stuff man
Mariners definitely have the goods if they wish.. Very exciting times for y’all
Nationals need every position and more than anything they just need to best prospects. The one player that the deal would not get done without is Abrams.
Abrams, Hassell, Wood and 2 other prospects gets the deal done without Gore.
@Pads Fans- Please Stop being delusional with your “single hitting all-stars” the Nats are not trading Soto, to your precious Pads. Besides are the Pads ready to take on Corbin’s big contract, when they got all that garbage there now with Myers and Hosmer’s bad contracts??? Time to wake up, and sniff reality dude.
Yeah, but Kirby and Gilbert are 24 amd 25, so starting with them makes no sense since they’ll be near 30 by the time the rebuild is done.
The site baseballtradevalues is overvaluing Soto. Trout was projected for 8.3 WAR the Spring before his age 27 season when he signed his record deal. Soto has one 7 win season to date and his defense and running have taken a big step back for a 23-year-old.
I’m fairly sure he didn’t rejected the contract based on dollar value as much as their team, the minors, Lerner selling the team, and the division talent making a rebuild harder, not to mention the backloading of the deal and the other bad contacts.
I think, if he signs this offseason after being traded to the right team, he’ll sign for $450 over 14 years. It’ll be the top contract in baseball and if he saw what happened with Machado, Harper, and Correa and didn’t take a hard swallow after his slow start, then he’s not very smart.
As for his value, Soto was projected for 7.8 wins, due to his slow start, his projection should stsgnste around 8 wins for 2023 & 2024. Saying that is 8 wins per year with 2.5 years left that’s 20 wins. Fangraphs valued 1 win at 8.5M this past offseason, so we’ll round up to $9M a win. That’s a total of $180M and you subtract off about $7M + $22M + $28M, which we’ll round down to $55M, leaving the value at $125M for Soto.
Marte shouldn’t be knocked $25M (started at $68M in 2022) in value for a slow start, so $50M sounds about right, after Hancock showed out at the Futures Game, his pedigree means he should be worth $20M, OF Gabriel Gonzalez ahould be worth $15M, and the final piece would be Matt Brash $15M, and the Nationals would send back Juan Soto SP Patrick Corbin (-$50M value), RP Victor Arano and $10M in cash.
$50M + $20M + $15M + $15 = $100M to WSH
$125M + $10M – $50M + $5M = $90M to SEA
This makes it a slight overpay by Seattle without trading their future.
Myers contract is up after this year.
The Pads have talked of moving one of their rotation pieces to free up money.
The Padres have a 2023 payroll of only 167M.
If they want to make the deal ,they certainly have the players/prospects to do so.
Personally, I think the Padres would be smarter to just keep their prospects.
Tatis Junior is working out and ready to return after the All Star break that will give their team a big boost.
@Captain Judge99
.306/.391/.475/.866 in 707-AB, 20-HR, 53-SB
.260/.365/.414/.779 in 481-AB, 14-HR, 28-SB
Which one of these guys is a singles hitter? Also, can you post a link to the article which states that the Nationals will only trade Soto if Corbin goes with him? I Googled it but can’t seem to find it. Thanks!
@Javia135 They never said that but it’s tough to see a Soto trade happening without Corbin or Strasburg being included. Very few teams have the capital to trade for Soto on his own.
Take out Gore. Add Ruiz and Weathers.
I hope not Ruiz, I like him, but if he’s needed for Soto, get er done
@Pads Fans- take out Ruiz and Weathers, and add Myers and Hosmer, right? Stop, please enough with your delusion!
Myers and Homer for Andujar and Gallo!
Mariners fans are already looking to shed Kelenic!
Meanwhile, Edwin Diaz is one of if not THE BEST closer in the league.
I would trade volpe plus for soto. Pending an extension. Also trade peraza plus for Castillo. Go over the salary cap for a few years with the potential to win how many world series
Why pending an extension?
It does open a hole at SS, and why not?
He’s awesome, pay him 10/450.
Because if you can’t win a WS with Soto in 2022-24 you shouldn’t be trading for him at all.
“pending an extension”?! Not in this market.
Like saying I will buy your property if you wait for me to sell my house.
Seller will say “Next bidder up”…
Actually, my parents allowed exactly that when we moved 28 years ago. The guy who bought our old house hadn’t finished selling his old house, while our new house hadn’t yet finished being built, so after he bought it he basically rented it to us so we could continue living there for the intervening few months.
Kelenic, Trammel, Emerson, Bryce Miller and Harry Ford for Soto.
Now give us the trophy
Nobody wants Kelenic, including the Mariners.
LFGM
Lol
We appreciate you guys throwing in Justin Dunn. Jerry used him to help bring Wink and Geno over
M’s have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Y’all can keep Diaz
LFGM
What trophy is Seattle winning? They are more than one player away from being on New York or Houston’s level.
Ahhh JJ, I could smell your baseless comment made out of spite and nothing else a mile away. You seem to enjoy going after out fan base that has never tasted a championship.
Did you pick on handicapped kids in school too? Lol. What a tuff kewl guy
Go suck NY and or Houston off; those franchises love frontrunners
He’s right, though. The Mariners aren’t near the Astros or Yankees level. 14 game win streak and they’re still 9 and 13.5 games, respectively, behind those teams. +36 run differential compared to +98 for the Astros and an eye-popping +199 for the Yankees.
You sound insecure. I actually like the Mariners, but he has a point. They’re probably more than a 2022 Juan Soto away from Houston and NY.
Lol, of course I am a combative fan. Put yourself in my shoes, we haven’t made the playoffs in 21 years, I was 13 years old. I am a diehard, loyal fan of this franchise and this JJ dude has popped up 3 times now to chime in with some random comment. No stats, no coherent point, just “hurr dur the Mariners suck.”
My response, while you consider it to be “insecure” somehow (holy lol Dr) is not based on this one comment alone.
Go M’s
Even if he’s right. It’s a stupid, easy picking fruit point to make. You guys have to understand the lack of spine or coherence it takes to make such a comment; correct?
I think the Mariners are a wah better team than most give them credit for. They won 90 games last year while losing Seager and adding Winker, Ray, Suarez, and called up Julio.
Not at the same level as the Yankees or Astros? Really… I think they are more balanced than both. The Yankees struggle against good right-handed pitching, as demonstrated when they put up 2 runs total against the 3 Astros starters in Verlander, Javier, and Uriquidy. Then, got two hit by Castillo as well. You act like they are dominant, yet they lost 2 of 3 to the Reds, split with the Pirates, and have gone 5-4 against the Red Sox in July. They are beatable when challenged correctly.
Also, the Mariners just took 2 of 3 from the Astros. The Mariners play like 10 of 13 against the Astros and Yankees out of the break, so that will tell us a lot. Gilbert and Ray are about as good of a 1-2 punch as you can get though.
What did I say that was wrong? Your post makes the claim that they are one player away from winning a ring (3 teams could say that and Seattle isn’t one of them). That is an incorrect statement. I’d be shocked if they finish within 10 games of Houston. Nothing against them because they have a bright future, but it took a 14 game winning streak for them to get within 9 games of Houston. Nobody in Houston or New York is worried about Seattle this season. You guys were nowhere to be found 6 weeks ago, after winning the division on paper in the preseason (in your own minds). The worst thing that could have happened to Seattle was that run last year. They weren’t a good team last year. This year they are an average team, at best.
Yeah, but Kirby and Gilbert are 24 amd 25, so starting with them makes no sense since they’ll be near 30 by the time the rebuild is done.
The site baseballtradevalues is overvaluing Soto. Trout was projected for 8.3 WAR the Spring before his age 27 season when he signed his record deal. Soto has one 7 win season to date and his defense and running have taken a big step back for a 23-year-old.
I’m fairly sure he didn’t rejected the contract based on dollar value as much as their team, the minors, Lerner selling the team, and the division talent making a rebuild harder, not to mention the backloading of the deal and the other bad contacts.
I think, if he signs this offseason after being traded to the right team, he’ll sign for $450 over 14 years. It’ll be the top contract in baseball and if he saw what happened with Machado, Harper, and Correa and didn’t take a hard swallow after his slow start, then he’s not very smart.
As for his value, Soto was projected for 7.8 wins, due to his slow start, his projection should stsgnste around 8 wins for 2023 & 2024. Saying that is 8 wins per year with 2.5 years left that’s 20 wins. Fangraphs valued 1 win at 8.5M this past offseason, so we’ll round up to $9M a win. That’s a total of $180M and you subtract off about $7M + $22M + $28M, which we’ll round down to $55M, leaving the value at $125M for Soto.
Marte shouldn’t be knocked $25M (started at $68M in 2022) in value for a slow start, so $50M sounds about right, after Hancock showed out at the Futures Game, his pedigree means he should be worth $20M, OF Gabriel Gonzalez ahould be worth $15M, and the final piece would be Matt Brash $15M, and the Nationals would send back Juan Soto SP Patrick Corbin (-$50M value), RP Victor Arano and $10M in cash.
$50M + $20M + $15M + $15 = $100M to WSH
$125M + $10M – $50M + $5M = $90M to SEA
This makes it a slight overpay by Seattle without trading their future.
You are wrong, because you have an irrationally skewed view of the Mariners, simply because they have always been bad.
You are calling them an average team at best, despite the fact that the M’s have been in in the thick of the playoff hunt since last year. You call them average at best despite possessing the best winning streak in baseball this year, and boating the best defense in baseball. You call them average with a top 5 team ERA in baseball. You call them average when comparing them to 2 of the powerhouses of baseball (hot take there bud). Have you actually watched any of their games? How about any of the games against Houston this year (we are 6-6 against Houston, I think dusty and the boys would disagree with your super hot take).
You are wrong because it’s a wack move to pick on a fan of a team that’s been terrible for decades getting rightfully excited about his team FOR NO REASON, especially when you have, again, absolutely ZERO STATS, facts, coherent arguments other than “hurr dur the team that’s never won still sucks hurr DURR”
Excellent, hot takes here bud. Keep ‘em comin. Next thing you know you’ll be talking crap about the A’s leaving town. JFC you’re annoying
Yeah…. and the Red Sox rotation is a mess until Eovaldi and Sale came back (wait, Sale is out again) …. Other than inconsistent Pivetta, the Red Sox entire staff is on the DL.
Seattle fans are the annoying ones. You get on one hot streak last year and think they will compete. They had a negative run differential last year, by a lot. They were a below average team last year who made some good additions. Those additions made them an average team. I’d be shocked if they won more than 86 games. This has nothing to do with teams from 5 years ago. I’m looking at current teams. The team last year wasn’t good, but had a good stretch of games. Not much different than this team. Seattle is just as likely to lose 10 straight as they are winning 20 in a row. You can’t say the same for New York or Houston. It took a 14 game winning streak to get within 9 of Houston. Nobody is worried in Houston.
Are you done? Are you done sucking Houston off? Are you done belittling teams you view “beneath” you (lol)? Do you actually have anything to say or bring to this discussion about the Juan Soto trade? Do you actually have anything to say at all? Anything? Anything at all of value? Here’s your chance troll
I’m not the fool that said the mariners were one player away. I look forward to not seeing y’all around in a few weeks. I’m belittling the mariners in any way. I’m giving a fact based, honest opinion of them. Just because you don’t like the facts doesn’t mean I’m trolling.
Kelenic?! Trammel;?!
Garage sale deal?!
it will take more than that!
Trammel, 23, has .5 WAR in less than 100 ABs this year.
Kelenic, the best prospect in baseball as recently as 2 years ago, is 23 and hitting .295 with 11 bombs in AAA.
Garage sale items? Sheesh. Watch a game
Hey NWMariner – Kelenic was NEVER the #1 prospect in baseball. Anywhere. Please, post a link from a reputable source that ever had him #1 overall. I’ll wait…
Oh you’re back? You couldn’t find it? Shocker. Just pointing out that your perspective is, to use your words, “irrationally skewed”.
Now go get your shine box.
OH MY GOD he was the number 4 prospect in baseball, not the # 1. I’m sorry about the hyperbole, I don’t want to cause you any confusion. Here’s my shine box:
You haven’t brought anything to this discussion. Absolutely nothing. Zilch. Nothing but troll fodder.
We’re here to discuss the Soto trade. Why are you here?
I will give you a Joe Pesci beat down with my words every single time you decide you want to step out of turn and quack like a duck from across the country. Nothing better to do than pull your pants down and show us your white butt while you try to squeeze out a poop on a team you deem to be “not worthy.”
What a worthless pile of mush. And you call yourself a baseball fan. SMH
google.com/amp/s/www.rotoballer.com/top-250-mlb-dy…
Kelenic is struggling and is currently in the minors.
Trammell has been a hyped prospect for a number of teams and has been traded multiple times and not lived up to the hype,
Lol
One of these statements has relevant recent statistics. One does not. Can you tell me which is which?
Cubs ain’t touching him and neither are the White Sox’s…
Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays and Rangers seem the more likely candidates and I put the Mets and Jays in the best position…
Personally I wouldn’t make the trade because the cost will be so high but the team that does will most likely never get their money worth and Soto will most likely head West afterwards…
its interesting timeline for such a trade with two years of arbitration left, the only way a deal gets done will be because the Nats take a fair shake and that means likely a couple top prospects, a couple current players while offloading Corbin and Strasburg.
The Blue Jays would be a good fit for a trade, they could use Corbin in the rotation now, and Strasburg would look good in the rotation next season.
Tha Jays throw in Kikuchi, Teoscar Hernandez and Biggio with CJ Van Eck and Gabriel Moreno, might be enough to get a trade off. Soto and Vlad would be sweet.
The only thing with the Jays is that their best trade chip is a catcher, and the Nats already have their guy. I think it’s gonna take at least one premier top 20 or so prospect to get Juan. Toronto has one, but maybe at the wrong position
What about Bo Bichette as the center piece.
Dusty, that’s the scenario that I think could make sense for the Nationals. It seems like a decision of this magnitude should be made by new owners. When you have a potential franchise player, you’d think that is something you’d like to sell to the new ownership. They might be willing to meet Soto’s demands and if not, they can be the ones to cash in on the trade value. But if a sale isn’t imminent, they might want to buy time. Trading Soto for an established young, highly marketable player with more control could give them more time on a decision like that. Bichette, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Cedric Mullins (if not for the rivalry), Bryan Reynolds (in a 3 team trade maybe), Dylan Cease on the pitching end.. Guys in that category. I think it’s better for them to get that floor plus prospects when trading a franchise icon at this stage. Like when Boston got the floor of Verdugo in the Betts trade. Only this would have to be a much higher floor. Plus I think it would be easy for most teams to emotionally convince themselves about the short term impact of Soto but a second sober thought on clearing out that much prospect talent alone would be difficult.
Bichette is having a poor season and yet still was a fan vote finalist for the all star game, has an all star appearance and 5 WAR season under his belt, plays a premium position. Even with his underwhelming performance this season, he seems to have some level of immunity towards criticism. I think he’s marketable as a star. He’s certainly talked about as a generational type talent and a big extension candidate in his own right. He’s a hot and cold guy because of his approach but he’s still younger than a lot of the prospects being bandied about in these trade ideas and he’s likely to be more consistent as he matures.
Counter point about wanting to decide on Soto. If I was buying the Mationals, I wouldn’t want my first big move to either lock in a huge contract to one player for 1/2 billion dollars or to trade the face of the franchise before his prime. Better to buy the team with all of the resolved ahead of the sale.
That’s a good point too. That might even support the type of move I proposed above. Those guys would be less face of the franchise at the time of a decision on them but new ownership could move on them as such if things went well.
I think you are over rating Soto’s value or under rating the negative value of Corbin + Stras.
It looks like Strasburg will need a second Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery which will cost him most if not all of the 2023 season.
Since the Giants generate enough revenue to pay Soto, have some player contracts expiring after 2022, have some existing MLB players that can be dumped, have a decent farm system, and they are completely inept at drafting and developing their own outfielders, they would be logical suitors EXCEPT that Zaidi is anti – big, long contracts…..
This would drive me absolutely nuts if I were a Giants fan. Stop protecting billionaires’ wallets FFS
Protecting their wallet? You can choose to be ignorant if you wish, but most people understand that teams operate with a budget. Locking up long term money makes it more difficult to fill holes and build a complete team. I think the Giants played above their talent level last year and we’re seeing that this year. Locking up a lot of money before you have a stable core in place makes you the Phillies.
I don’t think the Giants have the capital. Luciano, in his 3rd season, has been all hype and no production. Harrison is legit but not a big enough headliner and after him it gets thin quick w sf farm
Juan Soto is way overrated. There isn’t ANY player in baseball who deserves $40+ million per. I truly hope the Yankees pass on Soto. Or, if they do trade for him, just ride out his contract into his free agency. No way do I want the Yankees tying up $450+ million in this guy.
I’m sure you said the same thing when Jeter signed his first $189M contract extension in ’01 or CC’s first Yankees deal. It’s all relative.
I agree with you. He is foolish to refuse to sign. Has anyone ever in the history of professional sports signed a single contract that was for 440M? He could get plunked this weekend and never be the same. If he was my family member I would have held a shotgun to make him sign.
$29.3 million AAV is less than Soto will get in 2024 in arbitration and only a couple million more than he will get in 2023. Players typically get more AAV in free agency than they do in their final year of arbitration. So he is willing to wait it out.
Think about it, he will make $55-60 million in 2023-2024 in arbitration even if he doesn’t sign a long term extension. Add the $17 million he is making this year and that is generational wealth. He can afford to wait if he doesn’t get the deal he wants.
His agent is Boras, one of the smartest in any sport, so you can be sure that he is insured for at least that $55-60 million he will make the next two seasons.
He may be insured for those 2 years, but if he has a major injury in that time frame, and/ if his production drops, then his future earnings will take a huge hit. Talk to Cody Bellinger who was the hottest player in the game just a few years ago.
Soto has a 160 OPS+ over 4.5 seasons. Bellinger had 2.5 good seasons before his performance fell off a cliff halfway through the 2019 season. To me that is not an apt comparison.
Soto could get hurt and only make the $17 million he is guaranteed and the $60 million he is expected to make in arbitration, but even if he does that is life changing money. Its worth taking the chance to get what he feels he is worth.
“The Pirates are still in a rebuild, and it’s unlikely ownership would ever sign off on the type of money it’d take to pay Soto, even when looking only at his arbitration seasons.”
$500 million pays for the Pirates’ payroll for the next 8-10 years.
This seems like a safe assumption.
Do you people not read the articles? The Giants are near the end
The Giants were added in later, bud. Scroll up & you’ll see it was addressed.
Clearly they don’t, since the article mentions (at the end) that the first published version omitted SF.
Cardinals: Soto
Nationals: Walker, Carlson, Liberatore, DeJong and McGreevey
I’ll throw Knitzer in there too!!
I’m not familiar with the Card’s system, but maybe another high-A lottery type? Just to sweeten the pot without adding Corbin.
Cardinals currently have a top hitter in AAA in Alec Burleson, a corner outfielder/1B/DH. He’s big league ready, just doesn’t have a spot on the 40 man roster…
Not worth it for the Cardinals, and they wouldn’t be able to afford even Soto’s arbitration salaries for the next two years, anyway.
They’re commitments for next year totals around $105,000,000 with Goldy and Nolan included in that. Soto is at $17,000,000 right now in first year of arbitration but that’s based on a second place finish in MVP voting which I doubt happens again based on his current stats (doubt they weight WAR much in those hearings). All that to say his contract isn’t going to jump the 50% everyone keeps saying. Probably around 22-23 million if it all holds based on 2nd half better stats projections. Point being, he’s not going to be priced out of a Cardinals two year outlook if they want to swing the deal.
I think the Mariners make the most sense. Take Corbin give up Kirby, Marte, Kelenic and who ever else makes up the difference in value. You then have a 3 year window of championships. Soto makes the Mariners real contenders. I’m an Orioles fan. Makes no sense for them. Next year we’ll be good but 2024 is probably there year to make a serious run. Mariners are ready next year and this year with Soto.
I don’t think he’d sign an extension in Seattle so buyer beware !
Yeah being with a group of guys who are almost all under 30 when he reaches free agency and he can play for a decade alongside Julio after their extensions sounds awful.
Let’s be clear a guy from another country would rather play where? CA and NY taxes are nuts. Most of the teams cant afford him and name a team who can afford him and actually develops talent like the Mariners?
It should be noted that every other top team has got there by money internationally or drafting top 5 picks. The Mariners neither got the highest rated international prospects and only Hancock (6th) was drafted before the 11th pick under Dipoto. They have developed these players. Brash was nothing until he came to Seattle,
Preller didnt know how to develop him along with a whole group of failed top pitching prospectsGore and Abrams were both top picks. The Marinerseanwhile have proven they can draft late in the 1st and still find diamonds.
It’s still Seattle though so be honest – it’s not a desirable place for a Latino baseball player in his early 20s to want to spend the rest of his career.
I don’t think that any team that is interested in him would back off just because he would not sign an extension.
To me is more likely that the team that trades for Soto will be looking at making 3 runs in the playoffs with his huge bat anchoring their lineup. Signing him long term would be a bonus. I could be wrong, but that is what I believe to be the case.
“nice problem to have bucket for Washington” – that should say Toronto Steve. Listed under the Blue Jays category.
Who’s more overrated: Judge or Soto?
Judge, easily. I love looking at Soto OBP, unseen today. Lots of pure sluggers, but Soto’s the guy who can carry a mediocre team to a great team.
He’s 5th in obp this year and he’s definitely not making a mediocre team a great team. People over rate how much 1 player can change things so much…
160 OPS+. That is one player that can make any team better and turn a good team into a great team.
Depends on the package that goes back.
This is going to be a high risk situation for the acquiring team. Depth will be all but gone, one injury at a weak spot and it could be real bad.
The Nationals are not mediocre. They are terrible.
Hear me out… this is exactly the type of move the Pirates should make. They have the farm system to pull it off. This would also generate enough buzz in the ‘Burgh to generate game day revenue.
The Buccos aren’t too far off from competing, but lack a true superstar. Trade for him, grab an ace and they are back in business
Sorry bro. Somehow the pirate system still sucks.
Are the Pirates competing for WS in next two years with Soto? If not then how can justify massive haul of prospects?
The moral of the story appears to be that a team should agree to whatever the ask may be rather than hoard prospects. Who wouldn’t be willing to trade Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin for Miguel Cabrera?
The Marlins come to mind…
Anyone who couldn’t afford to add Cabrera’s salary to their payroll, not to mention Dontrelle Willis’s salary on top of that.
Also, the Cardinals had an even better first baseman at the time.
LOL
I don’t think one statistic is omnipotent. fWAR is a good place to start to gain perspective.
I looked up Soto on Fangraphs for fWAR as his BA, OPS and other major offensive stats are down this year. Then again, maybe there are both hidden advanced stats as well as defensive stats (which I remain skeptical about) that fWAR will show.
Son of a gun – Juan Soto came in at #45, just behind Jeremy Pena and Jazz Chisholm Jr.
This hysteria over Soto is something that looks too good to be true.
I’d hate to see a bunch of the Mariner’s prospects get traded for Soto. I’d rather keep who we have then give up those studs.
I would too. The cost is going to approach ludicrous territory. If there’s one thing that I’ve learned from Jerry Dipoto is that he’s not big on long term mega contracts. He wasn’t in favor of the Robinson Cano deal. He never signed off on the Josh Hamilton deal. Moreno forced his hand which ultimately lead to Jerry throwing his hands up and signaling, “I’m out!” because that’s not how he runs an organization. He never was in favor of the Albert Pujols signing either, look how that aged for the Angel’s. I can’t see Jerry sacrificing the farm and the young talents he’s taken the time to acquire, for 2.5 years of one mega superstar, when he already has one to build a franchise around in Julio!
Now, after everything I just said about Jerry not liking mega contracts, you can bet you’re ass they’ll probably figure something out with JRod. As for what that looks like, I have no idea. But the money it’ll cost to pay him, Logan Gilbert, and Ty France would be better allocated in their pockets and continuing to grow prospects, successfully I might add, to build around Julio.
The Mariners are JUST beginning to find the tip of the spear. They are hotter than the sun right now! The have a great payroll situation, as well as up and coming stars, with more on the way in separate tiers and waves. Build around that. Don’t blow you’re load all on one player.
Just my two cents.
Yeah but JeDi’s long term contract phoobia is for 30 year olds not a 21 and 23 year pair of studs in Julio and Juan. I wouldn’t trade Kelenic with his value preceived by many as so low unless they give top prospect value in trade. Kelenic is only in his age 22 season.
The Mariners could add Jazz Chisholm. Even if it does nearly guyt the minors of near help, I bet they could get him for Trammell, Lewis, Ford, and an under 20 international prospect like Martin Gonzalez or Starlin Aguilar, every key player besides Winker and Soto is under control for 3+ years after this season. Plenty of time to build back the farm, not including suprise breakouts and trading off pieces who aren’t a long term fit for the Mariners after they gain some value.
I love your point there of Walker, Carlson, Liberatore and then some not sitting well with Cards fans.
So the author looks up every teams top rated prospects and says it would take that plus to land Soto. Brilliant, however false. Any team with an overal top 10 prospect isn’t including him in the trade. Your only trading for 2.5 years of a player. Signing is not a consideration in this trade at this time.
The Cardinals wouldn’t include Walker and they wouldn’t have to. Burleson, McGrevy, Liberatore, Thompson plus a current MLB outfielder get it done. But it would be O’Neal not Carlson.
I have to disagree. I cant imagine him getting traded for anything less than a top 10 and a second in the top 50. Time will tell.
Every year we as fans of teams. Or getting a player always have the same reaction “that’s it!?”. Happened last year with Trea Turner, happened with Mookie Betts, most recently with Sean Manea. This will be no different. I get, no one as young as Soto, but teams all value there prospect capital more than anything else. The talent level is really high these days and the prospects help keep payroll down while being competitive which means more money kept by the owners.
Betts and Turner only had a year or less remaining until free agency, while Manea isn’t a superstar.
2.5 years of a superstar is absolutely worth a top prospect headlining the package.
Also, the Nats have no interest in someone like O’Neill who will be a free agent after just 1.5 years from now.
2.5 years. O’Neil is a free agent going into 2025. he finished 8th in MVP voting last year and he’s a better player than Carlson. A top prospect is viewed as a superstar by clubs, none of them would trade one for Soto.
I would love for the Giants to land Juan Soto, but I’m curious as to why wouldn’t the Giants be in on Carlos Correa, if he opts out, and save the farm system?
3b Longoria is gone after this year, SS Crawford after next year, top prospect Luciano is a couple year away, maybe not even a SS when he is even ready, etc.
Either way, Giants fans are ready for the next face of the franchise. Come on Farhan, let’s make it happen. I wonder what ownership is saying and thinking?
Thank you for including the giants. The athletic left them out in their analysis. They’ve been looking for a big star. Have they found him ?
Probably makes more sense to just sign Judge and pay $$$$ instead of top prospect capital.
I dunno about my Rangers going for this. For one thing, they’d have to make the Vandy guys untouchable, but are they willing to give up Jung and Winn and maybe more for one big bat?
Idk why this conversation continues to happen there’s zero shot the Nats trade him the next two weeks. If they can’t get a deal done the Lerners will let the next ownership make the call on whether to sign or trade him. Too much risk to do it now with the sale.
Exactly how does Soto being on the team or being traded change the likelihood of a sale?
With or without Soto, the Nationals are going to be 90+ loss bad and they won’t get much better next season if at all.
With all the FA they have to replace (I think one of the writers on the Athletic said 12 including 3 everyday regulars), with the huge AAV contracts of unproductive players like Strasburg and Corbin clogging up payroll, with attendance at 19th in MLB, and with a bottom 5 farm system, the team’s chance of getting better at all is slim.
If Strasburg has to have another TOS surgery and loses all of 2023, their situation gets even bleaker.
Trading Soto might actually help facilitate the sale because it saves the new owner a minimum of $55 million over the next two seasons for what will be a very bad team.
The other theory for why trading Soto actually would help the sale is you get that done under the old ownership group and everyone hates them on their way out rather than the new owner coming in and looking like he’s gutting the team and slashing payroll.
Basically the selling owner does the dirty work in terms of cutting payroll for the new owner and the new owner is in a better PR spot.
Marlins have enough, but not enough money to keep him around.
Big market Giants and their ownership, better start spending $ for premier talent. Especially when their farm is years away from being ready for prime time.
The way it’s done in he real world is to build a core of young players, then augment them with “premier talent”.
Name us a contending team that was built by spending big bucks on players via free agency or trading their quality prospects to get said players.
How about this year’s Mets?
Yes, they signed free agents. But the core was youngsters developed by them…..
McNeil, Alonso, deGrom, Lugo, Preterson, Nito, Nimmo and others came through their system. Lindor and Carrasco were traded for using Gimenez and Rosario. There are others as well.
Mets have 8 home grown players on the 26 man roster. Not sure how that compares to other teams other than the Yankees who have 4 and the Cubs who have 6..
The Tigers could make more sense than most think. Cabrera will be off books for when Soto hits free agency. Maybe a package of Jobe, Torkelson, Manning or Briske and some other “throw ins” for Soto and Corbin. Detroit has quite the few young arms to dangle. Wilmer Flores was just in futures game and they also have Ty Madden.
Torkelson and Jobe will not be traded.
Tigers do have some other very interesting farm talent that
could help make a deal.
When you are talking about a player like Soto, there is no player “off the table”.
I’m still hoping Tampa Bay just goes all in by sending about 10 prospects over to D.C. for Soto, and then let him walk after 2024. Go for that elusive World Series championship, increase the attendance, and go for that new stadium. If it doesn’t work out – really, what’s the difference?
Would Logan Webb be untouchable?
Probably. Giants not going to give up their young, controllable ace for Soto. But if the team got obliterated over the next couple of weeks and fell completely out of contending for a WC spot, then, they might entertain a prospect haul for him. But more likely, they’d just try to cash in on Rodon in that scenario.
If King George were still at the helm, I suppose the Yankees would be at the top of the list. But I don’t see Hal doing this. Why should he? The seats are filled without investing in Soto, and if Juan raked there’d be pressure to give him a massive long-term contract.
As a Mets fan, I don’t want to see them completely deplete the farm for Soto, but I think their pick of a Buster Posey award winner for the best college catcher at #11 could be a sign that they’re open to dealing Alvarez.
They also selected a few 3B, so Baty could be on the way out as well.
Parada has been scouted as weak on defense, especially his arm. He was drafted for his batting skills. The Mets will likely give him an opportunity to keep catching initially, but he probably ends up being a first baseman…
I realize the Cubs are a big market and $$ team. But, the Cubs have been cutting payroll since the end of 2018. Ricketts family would not pay for Bryce Harper at 325MM for 13 years. People can’t possibly think the Ricketts family will spend 500MM for 15 years. It gets so redundant to see the Cubs mentioned everytime a big name and $$ player is available either in FA or trade. Spending on Stroman & Suzuki was to sell tickets and bring up a very low payroll.
Mariners should pass on this for sure… As fun as it would be to see him and Julio in the outfield together. Still think they’d be better off sending a package to the DBacks for Ketel Marte and Zac Gallen.
Soto probably goes to the Giants, Yankees, or perhaps Texas. Dodgers top prospect is a catcher, which is a spot the Nats already have solidified.
Agreed. I think Texas is the most likely landing spot.
Dodgers already sent the Nats a top catching prospect in their last deal.
I have a feeling Soto is going to f every team up heading towards the deadline.. I mean realistically speaking IF they add Corbin to the deal as a must take to clear $$ for the potential new buyer of the team..obviously the spec haul goes down quite a bit ..But a team like the Padres would have to make 2 or 3 moves other than Soto trade to afford Both Corbin and Soto.. it can’t be last minute last day type deal… if teams swing for the fences on Soto and miss they could be stuck without upgrading their teams..other deals like Contreras/Beni/Mancini etc.. might not work out if everyone waits til the last minute on Rizzo to say Soto is yours or Soto is not…If i am Padres I set a package that blows Nats away but I need an answer by like 7/30 cause I need to picot to Contreras or Mancini or Bell if I don’t get Soto..AND I may need to trade Myers + 45 type spec to clear the $$ I am inheriting for 2022… Buckle uo folks!
Myers is gone after the 2022 season and is owed just a $1 million buyout. Martinez is playing well enough that he will opt out if his performance continues. With the 2-3 guys they will non-tender like Lamet and Hosmer’s deal dropping to $13 million, the Padres will have a payroll around $154 million ($162 million for CBT purposes) even if Martinez stays so plenty of room for Soto.
I am thinking 2022 we are $600k below the;$230mil treshold.threshold.. Soto (17 1 roughly $7.1 blows us past the Lux Tax tier one. Add Corbin and we get near tier 2 for 2022)
I am wondering if the Padres would be willing to blow past the luxury tax for a legitimate run at the WS?
I’m a Cubs fan and I would still love to see a lineup that included Tatis, Machado, and Soto.
No you’re Pads Fans on a burner. The dead giveaway was saying that Freddy Galvis and his agent wanted to get an extension done before the 2018 season started.
I think the White Sox farm system gets a bad rap, but even so, Im glad they will not get this guy. For one if the Nats could not sign this guy for that amount, I know the White Sox will not. For 2 whoever pays this guy will likely regret it, unless he takes a pay cut. I think its safe to say when you have one guy get paid a kings ransom on a team its really hard for a team to win it all and be consistently good. Heck the Angels have two superstars and they just fired their (likely to be a HOF) manager as they are underachieving .
As for the Sox farm system, in my opinion they have some good young players, lets see them develop.
Sox have promoted and traded most of their best farm players,.
Not much left,
Dodgers trade Andy Pages, Miguel Vargas, Ryan Pepiot, Chris Taylor for Juan Soto & Tanner Rainey
Take out Taylor and put in Corbin instead of Rainey and the Nationals say yes.
I’ll be surprised if one of the following five teams don’t end up with Soto (in no particular order):
Dodgers – deep pockets to absorb Corbin and resign Soto, sufficient near MLB ready prospects
Rangers – ditto above
Yankees – ditto above
Red Sox – ditto above
Mariners – ditto above AND they have the GM perhaps most willing and capable of making a deal. If I had to pick a favorite, this would be my pick..
I view the following as dark horses:
Cardinals – less likely to pony up the dollars necessary
Giants – lack the appropriate near ready prospects
Blue Jays – same as Giants
I dismiss these two entirely:
Padres – Corbin WILL be a part of whatever deal eventually happens (it makes the sale of the Nats more attractive to a prospective buyer) and San Diego is already desperately trying to unload Myers and Hosmer AND try to stay under the salary tax barrier .
Mets – The Nats are NOT going to deal Soto within the division and have to face him regularly unless they have no choice… and it’s quite clear they have other choices.
BTW, great article, but if Moreno being a catcher lessens the Blue Jays’ chances, why not say the same for the Mets (Alvarez) and Giants (Bart)? The Nats don’t need a catcher of the future, and if they’re going to restock the shelves with a Soto trade, they’re going after talent and positions of need.
While I agree, we are the best fit and are most logical trade wise, I highly doubt that Jerry pulls the trigger on this deal. Doesn’t feel like something my M’s would do.
If I were a betting man, I’d put all my chips on the Rangers.
God I hope its not the Rangers.
Not going to happen for Red Sox
In order for the Yanks to make the deal they would have to shed salary and take back a bad contract to avoid trading Volpe and Dominguez.
The trade would be Soto and Corbin who is owed 60m for Oswald Peraza (#2), Everson Periera (#10), Luis Medina (#11), Esteban Florial plus the Yanks would need to send Hicks 10m (40m remaining) and Gallo 10m to stay under next salary threshold.
As a Yankee fan that’s the most I would do! No Volpe and no Dominguez and if there’s a better prospect deal that another team is offering than so be it. I’m 1000% fine with allowing another team trade away there farm for a player whose having a down year and looking to make 500m. The Yankees priority is Judge!
The Nationals don’t need to “take back” any bad contracts because they’ll have plenty of suitors willing to take on Corbin as the price of doing business.
@Devish- really, which suitors are those? Stop playing fantasy baseball, and grow up.
I listed the teams….Dodgers, Rangers, Mariners, Red Sox….with deep pockets, and ownership willing to spend.
As for growing up, my maturity prevents me from casting aspersions on others so I’ll leave it for others to judge who needs to grow up.
Looking at what the Dodgers gave up and the Price contract they took on to get one year of Betts, its obvious that teams will give up a couple of top 50 prospects and take on Corbin’s salary to get 2 plus seasons of Soto.
If a team wants to send their farm to D.C to win in the next two years that’s great, but there’s no guarantee that they’ll win. Detroit, 68 an 84 but sadly nothing since. Miggy, Ver, J.D, Nick, and Max an Rick, but nada..
Soto, like Judge are the winner’s. Sell their services for two years at 50 Million A.A.V, and live the good life. Go to series ready teams and rake. Maybe the years playing for that huge money is short, but what a ride.
But Detroit made it to the WS in ‘06 and ‘12. They would have won in ‘06 had they not forgotten how to pitch. They have no regrets over the Cabrera deal.
They forgot how to field too.
Detroit won multiple Division Titles and 2 American league pennants during their last playoffs run..
The playoffs and World Series can be a “crapshoot”.
Which ever team gets hot at the end and “runs the table” wins.
Oftentimes, the best team on paper does not prevail in the playoffs and World Series.
The Tigers won the AL too quickly and had long layoffs where their team
“cooled off” and ran into red hot teams in their last 2 World Series appearances. in’06 and ’12.
Soto will come with Stephen or vise versa.
Likely not because strasburg has a NTC and him and soto are both with boras.
That essentially means boras and stras/soto would have control over where soto can be traded to which could severely limit his market.
Of course stras needs to play along with that but I could see soto, boras and stras sitting together and trying to leverage that.
White Sox. A package built around former Nats prospect Lucas Giolito. Add Garrett Crochett, Colson Montgomery and Oscar Colas
If I’m the Nats I want Vaughn, Montgomery, Vera and Colas. That being said I don’t do the deal because Vaughn looks to be a .280/20/75 and the ceilings on Montgomery and Colas are pretty high.
I think the dodgers will get him.
The dodgers are a very numbers driven team and they value team control but they aren’t prospect hugging as much as other smart front offices because they are very confident that their player development system will produce more stars and replace the guys they have traded.
The dodgers actually traded a lot of good prospects in the last 5-6 years and some of them went on the be really good (alvarez of course the most famous example) but their farm system still continues to produce top talent.
They are probably confident that even if they trade 3 out of their top7 prospects that they can replace that loss internally with their good player dev and scouting.
The Cabrera trade is a model for this because only the top WS contenders should empty out the farm system for 2 and a half years of a left fielder.
The Cabrera deal worked for the Tigers. The last contract extension was not necessary. The Tigers “overpaid”…
Totally agree about Cabrera, Illitch tried so hard to bring a title to Detroit that yes he did over spend on guys. Fielder being another name as well as Vmart… with that said, I don’t think any Soto deal gets done without an extension in place. Hard to fathom a team giving up major farm pieces for essentially 2 yrs of service.
> Blue Jays
Can Soto pitch?
Mets should push all the chips to the center. Alvarez, Baty, Mauricio, Ramirez, Vientos, Allan, Lee, Hamel, and take on all of Corbin’s contract. They’re the closest they’ve ever been, 1986 was too long ago, and it would be too perfect to finally win in the year their crosstown rival was THEE favorite to win it all.
Getting “fleeced” should pale in comparison to what Juan Soto means to that team. Do it!
The Mets are solid without Soto.
Giving up their future at multiple positions is probably not a good move for the Mets.
The Nationals would be better served waiting until the offseason to trade Soto. The just-drafted players would be eligible at that point. Not only would they have more bidders, there would also be more available prospects.
They won’t have more bidders in the offseason.
*ugh* Boston did not ‘balk’ at extending Betts. Betts refused to talk extension “I’m waiting until the end of my contract and looking for the best deal”. Then he’s traded and, weeks later, signs an extension with the Dodgers. Betts then used faux racism as a crutch for his leaving when, in reality, he wanted the ‘stardom’ of Los Angeles.
Can future draft picks be traded for now in the new CBA like NBA and NFL? I didn’t know if that happened or not yet.
Future draft picks can not be traded, and there are restrictions on trading players just drafted this week until post the World Series. They can’t even be “players to be named later.”
MLB should change those restrictions. It would create more interest.
Is it just me or is Soto not really even worth that kind of money? Sure, he has an OBP over 400 but he hasn’t eclipsed 30 homeruns in a season and he’s barely a .300 hitter. Yes, he’s talented but really only one season to say he was the best. Whoever signs him to a big deal may soon regret it.
“Looking For A Match In A Juan Soto Trade”
Bag of chips and a candy bar.
The reasons given for why the Rays would be POTENTIAL fits excludes the fact that neither Franco or Freeman would not have costed the Rays their whole prospects farm. Stu has stated in the past the Rays would be willing to spend on certain players. No way would the Rays be in on a 2 year rental of Soto.
But the Rays also have to shed personnel on the 40-man roster at the end of the season to accommodate many of those prospects, or trade them.. They could certainly afford to bundle half a dozen prospects for Soto, especially if they get one or two of Washington’s lower level pre-Rule 5 prospects in return.
Orioles could just offer to settle the MASN deal. That’s a few 100 mil in the Nats pockets.
I’m a Dodger’s fan. The proposals to acquire Soto are insane. How much can four at bats a game be worth? Nobody and I mean NOBODY is worth two top of the rotation type starters, a starting middle infielder and multiple other pieces. Additionally, having to pay a HUGE chunk of the player payroll budget makes it even more insane. I HOPE Andrew Friedman is smarter than pain.
…….smarter than this.
Dodgers system is all hype. They would certainly unload a ton of those dudes, who will most likely never pan out, for soto.
Hopefully MLB will keep soto from going to dodgers or yanks
Most of the Dodgers players/prospects do “pan out”…
Trade Judge to Washington and give them whatever else they want to make up difference.
Same old list of teams that have a chance at the star; Dodgers, Yanks, Giants, Red Sox, Mets and Rangers. Definitely nothing wrong with the economics of the game.
First thing Nats need to do is sign him to a 2 year $55MM deal so the acquiring team at least has cost certainty which will make negotiations a bit more clear cut.
Giants would be better off trading for Castillo and Drury now and going all in on Judge in the off season.
Addition by subtraction. Just get rid of the S.O.B.
I think if the Padres offer abrams, gore, Hassell plus plus plus. Which I think is possible it would be a tough package to beat.
They have the need as much as anyone plus Prellers seat is getting hot. People say the tax is an issue but seidler has said for the right move they would go over it.
Soto definitely qualifies as a player you would go over the tax for. So from the most likely team to do it I’d have the padres as the leader.
In the end it may come down to what’s important to the Nats, moving bad contracts or getting the largest return. I dont think you move a bad contract with a player like Soto. He is the one guy they have that can fuel their rebuild which will still take time so keeping Corbin doesn’t hurt them.
This deal will come down to which win now team is the most desperate. Hard to find a team more desperate and has the prospects to do so then the padres.
Remember the padres had a deal done for jram before he signed his extension so if they were willing to do that they will be willing to do a Soto deal. It’s not like jram was making nothing this year. Soto is also a better position fit for the Padres then jram was.
My money is on him being a padre.
Padres, Mariners, Dodgers, Giants all have a good shot at landing Soto.
Giants can take Corbin also.
Padres could take Corbin and move another starter or just eat the money to go deep in the playoffs or to the World Series.
Padres payroll for ’23 is in the 167M range so they can fit Soto in for 2.5 years.
The problem for the Padres is they really can’t take Corbin/Soto’s money on this year unless they can unload like Snell and then one of Hosmer/Myers in other moves. They’ve been trying to trade Hos/Myers for years and haven’t been able to pull it off so I’m pessimistic that they’ll ever bite the bullet on that.
Unless they stop caring about going over the tax again, it’s going to require a bunch of deals to make it work this year. I do agree though, they could afford it for ‘23/‘24 with the money they have coming off the books.
As much as I’d love to see him go many other places, let’s all be honest–he’s going to the Dodgers.
The realistic list of teams in market for Soto can be culled to about 5. Only teams in contention now and with necessary prospects can vie, and in any way justify, the extraordinary cost for 2 years of Soto. He is one of the best hitters we’ve seen in some time and I try to enjoy that pure fact. But the souring dynamics of the imbalanced economics reminds me what I deplore about the great game of baseball in 2022.
This smells. They’re selling the team? And getting rid of their generationally talented player? That’s just reducing value substantially unless they get an absolute haul in return. Come on.
No it’s not, if anything its probably making the team more attractive to purchase. Soto is probably going to earn like $50-$60M over the next two years, plus if you can attach Corbin with him that’s another $60M. The current ownership group can save the new ownership group like ~$120M by clearing these contracts out, plus restock the farm system. New ownership comes in with a lower payroll and a clean slate.
That’s why I said they need a haul in return. I don’t disagree with your perspective, I just think they can’t trade him for “decent” players.
Soto isn’t getting traded to anyone in the NL East. That’s all the analysis that is really needed for the Braves, Mets, Phillies and Marlins
Why not anyone in the NL East? Wouldn’t taking all of a division rival’s best prospects for a guy you are just going to bring back as a FA in 2 years be like, the greatest thing that ever happened?
I don’t really get all the love for Soto. He is basically Joey Votto with more power. Joey Votto is possibly the most boring player I have ever watched in my life. If the game were played on a computer, guys like Votto and Soto that just stand there and take pitch after pitch after pitch would be the best to have. But if you are team looking to put butts in seats, they are not the guys to build around.
With Soto, all you have to do is throw strikes and he will just as likely hit into a double play as hit a double. He led the league in GIDP last year with 23 and already has 11 GIDPs this year.
As Sandy Koufax used to say pitching is 75% of the game as we saw last night. Only teams that are contenders and have good pitching should even think about Soto. The Angels have proven with Trout and Ohtani that to be true. Teams like the Braves, Yanks, Red Sox, Dodgers, Giants, Astros, Phils, and Padres fit. Of those teams the teams with the best prospects are Dodgers 5, Giants 11, Yanks 13 will be the top targets., with the Dodgers front runners. They all have the cap money to do it for the next 3 years.
Would the Giants be making a huge mistake by including Logan Webb in any package they offer for Juan Soto?
Yes. It would open up as big of a hole as it would fill.
Don’t think the Nats want him. Only one more year of control than Soto.
Soto turned down a $440 million extension with $0 deferrals. Automatic Pass in my book.
I do not think it makes sense to unload the farm for 2+ years of Soto unless a team’s ownership 1.) plans to spend or is currently spending $250m on payroll for the next few seasons or is 2.) currently a realistic contender without Soto or 3.) extends him on the day of the trade.
Take, for example, the Rangers. In acquiring Soto they would part with at least their top 5 prospects thus leaving their farm without any depth to fill current glaring holes. The team would be Seager, Semien, Soto and 1 starting pitcher above league average (Gray). That’s still a roster that struggles to get over .500. The Rangers payroll has never been and never will be in the stratospheres of the biggest markets. The 4 guys mentioned above would be nearing $100m on their own (even without a Soto extension). Given the cost of FA’ SPs there’s little that could be done to vastly improve the dreck that is the pitching staff under the constraints of Texas’ budget.
I’m not saying Texas won’t try trading for Soto because they have a history of doing really dumb things – but, for most teams, unloading all organizational depth for 2= years isn’t a sound plan unless you’re a current contender or a really big spender.
From TX perspective- yes, very stupid and it’ll never happen. From Yankees, StL, SD, Seattle- that argument doesn’t hold and your asking price is higher than what he will eventually get traded for
Yankees, STL, SD and Seattle are all current contenders and should definitely be in on this. For teams like Rangers, Rockies, Dbacks, Tigers – it just makes no sense to piece this together.
The return isn’t going to be nearly as big as some of these starry-eyed Nats fans think. Temper your expectations.
I agree. But that said, someone might snap. SD has a 2-game lead over StL for the final WC slot, and are playing badly, having gone 12-18 over their past 30. And that includes 7 games v CO and 8 games v AZ. IMHO, I don’t think they survive without a trade, and if they miss the playoffs again, Preller gets fired.
If I an Rizzo, I not only trade them Soto, I pick up most of his salary, and take back Myers as part of the return. I’m thinking Preller offers up half his farm for that offer.
I’d ask for Abrams, Hassell, Wood and Zavala, plus pick up Myers salary for Soto. I also wouldn’t flinch at picking up Hosmer. $39M/3 won’t break the Nats, and it is what rich teams should be doing to improve their farm.
For a team up for sale, adding financial obligations (to those already owed to Corbin and Strasberg) make no sense. That’s why Corbin is almost assured to be included in any deal; it makes the team MORE attractive to a buyer.
If the Nats take a contract back, it’ll be because they want the player….and I guarantee you they don’t want Hosmer and Myers.
The team will have plenty of suitors who WON’T ask them to take back an onerous contract, and in fact will be willing to take on Corbin as the price of doing business.
1-All the writers make a point of his age. I don’t know that his age is necessarily an advantage. In some ways, a 28 year old asking for 7 years is less risky than a 23 year old asking for 12 years. Even if they end at the same time, it’s probably a lot easier to predict to predict injuries and decline over 7 years than over 12 years.
2-I’d be leery based on his ISO, which is “only” .249 over the past three years.. His OPS is great, but a decent chunk of that is related to the number of walks he’s received. If he gets to a better lineup, what happens to those walks? Does is OPS drop to a merely a, say .900?
It would be interesting to look at other players that have gone from being a beast in a weak lineup, to having a real lineup around them.
Exactly. The only thing that I remember right now is that Jason Heyward got his huge deal because he was only 26 when he entered FA. There is no way to accurately predict how a player’s future will go. Some people thought Giancarlo Stanton’s deal was an underpay when he signed it. I wonder how many of those people would sign Stanton for just the remainder of his deal right now?
If the rangers end up bidding I hope they are smart about it and realize when too much is too much. We have depth in the infield with great players. I would be comfortable with trading Duran, Foscoe, Thompson and reluctantly, even j. Smith. But not Jung or Harris. And on the pitching side I think cole Winn and Owen white. anything more and we’ll doom ourselves.
The Rangers make sense.
They spent big on free agency.
They are drafting well.
I don’t see them giving up Leiter though.
They do not make sense. They’ve committed $76m on just three players (Seager, Semien and Gray) for the foreseeable future. They will not spend with the biggest fish. Never have and never will. They do not draft well. The last homegrown talent to produce on the major league level is Joey Gallo. The current top prospects are flashing warning signs (Leiter has pitched once in 3 weeks at AA where he has a 6+ ERA. Winn looks like Chi Chi Gonzalez Part II). The other prospects have not succeeded at the upper minors and there’s no guarantee that they ever will with Texas (please see Profar, Odor, Tate, Thompson). They can trade for Soto, but it works out just like Arod. Top heavy roster, no homegrown talent, mediocrity, panic trade to NY and Texas paying half of Soto’s salary in perpetuity.
Winn yes.but this is leiters first taste with pro ball, they wouldn’t dare include him anyways. I would rather keep our top ranked prospects instead of going after Soto but they are an actual suitor with depth up the middle and now with pitching, not to mention, said prospects are in the top 100 if not close. You’ll get Soto if eventually if yours and my prediction come true don’t you worry.
Honestly, I think the Rays have a shot. For them it’s a 1-2 year commitment in keeping with the team’s MO. The team can afford the arbitration salaries, if the reporting on their pursuit of Freeman is legit, especially with Kiermaier and Zunino coming off the books. If Soto gets too expensive, he can be traded, and don’t think the Rays wouldn’t do that.
The Rays have the necessary farm system, as well as inexpensive MLB talent with lots of team control, and will be motivated by a logjam on their 40-man at the end of this season. I would think that only Franco, McClanahan, Baz, and maybe Taj Bradley would be off the table. With his incredibly affordable contract and team control through 2026, you would think Brandon Lowe would also be unavailable, but the team has considerable farm talent in the middle of the infield, as well as Isaac Paredes and Jonathan Aranda who are also controlled long term and can provide thump from the 2B position.
I could see a package of Paredes or another MLB bat, along with a consensus top-100 like Curtis Mead, and maybe 4 of the team’s top 30 prospects, including 2-3 pitchers.
Importantly, the Rays are a competitive team, so the addition of Soto could easily put them over the top in the way that they had hoped for from Nelson Cruz a season ago.
Tampa has had a lot of injuries this year and their pitching has dropped to 11th in the MLB according to Fangraphs. I’m not sure Soto alone puts them over the top, and he might be too rich for their blood.
Yeah, you’re not wrong, but at least some will be returning from injury, and the Rays are still the frontrunner in the AL wildcard.. Soto would certainly help fill the injury gap caused by Kiermaier and Margot both going down.
Franco is the only one the Rays could realistically deem as untouchable in a Soto trade.
Who says no?
Cardinals trade Tyler Oneil, Matt Liberatore, and Jordan Walker.
Nats trade Soto
Mozalak. Walker isn’t going anywhere. The Cardinals will get him and keep Walker and Wynn.
What do you think would be a fair offer that doesnt include Walker? Id guess Carlson has next most value then maybe gorman.
I would love it to be Flarety and O’Neil but Jack only has one more year until free agency so that won’t get it done. I think a deal of Burleson, Liberatore, McGreevey and O’Neil get it done. It’s not going to take the top of the top prospects/just made MLB players from clubs for Soto. Swap Thompson for McGreevey if they want. Add Herrera If they want him.
Oneil, Burleson, Liberatore, and a top 10 org pitcher like thompson, mcgreevy, or tink hence would be a good trade for both teams i think. I just think in big trades most teams want quality over quantity so i can see Nats saying walker or no deal.
Of course they will ask. But If they are going to trade him, they won’t get that level of prospect from anyone. Mozalak thinks Walker could be as good as Soto. Prospect capital is the most desired thing in baseball. Teams will rather hold on to budding top level talent for the years of cheap control rather than deal it for playersS even if it’s for a player like Soto.
BTV says Nats say no and pretty quick. Although if you include Corbin it’s about even.
Please no Mets. They can wait and afford to sign him in 3 years. Or Ohtani in 2
Soto’s star power and character would lead you to believe he will want to play for a organization that spends money and has a big market. That leads me to Yankees, Mets, Red Sox and Dodgers. Outside of that I have one team/organization that may be a dark horse in this race depending if the Nats don’t want to go through a whole tear down process/rebuild process. The Chicago White Sox.-.just hear me out.
1) Reinsdorf is 85 states that he’s the owner but only controls 19% of the club and some mystery billionaire bought 30% of the club a year ago or so.
2) They jacked up the payroll which is unlike Reinsdorf the last two years and he brought in LaRussa whose window to win is as small as Reinsdorfs.
3) People say the CWS minor league system is bad and they don’t have the assets to pull off a deal like this. I say if they include some group of the following the Nats would have ready to play MLB players this year and by 2023. Vaughn, Crochet, Colas, Cespedes, Montgomery and Vera.
Why would they do such a deal? The win now theory of Reinsdorf, LaRussa and increase the value of the franchise. In addition, when Soto’s deal expires the CWS payroll drops to $126MM in 2024. You’d have a lineup of Jimenez, Robert, Soto in the OF while still maintaining Anderson, Abreu and Moncada.
Why they shouldn’t do it? You could argue that Vaughn looks like a .280/20/75 player. Crochet has a high ceiling dependent on recovery of TJ surgery and good chance that either Colas or Cepedes could produce numbers like Vaughn by 2023/2024.
ANYONE BUT THE DODGERS
Re: yankees, volpe+peraza+jasson then see what else they want to add to convince us.
They have some interesting players to offer to be sure.
Not sure Hal will sign off on taking on more $$$$.
George, without a doublt.
Hal, I have my doubts.
Yanks will be 122 under the cap going into 23, plenty of money for both Judge and Soto. If Cashman is serious it will cost him Gleyber, Montgomery, Wesneski, Volpe, and Dominguez.
@LH. At that price keep him. The yankees will just sign him when he becomes a free agent. I seriously doubt anybody aill give up the top part of their farm then pay 40-50 million annually for ten plus years
As a Mets fan, I don’t want to lose my future players in a trade, besides Soto isn’t Trout plus the Mets have a few 30-40 mill players already and that’s w/o Alonso yet, I say trade for a bat (Bell or Mancini) they shouldn’t cost much plus a bullpen arm or 2
You just did that last year for Lindor, but there is no way the Nats trade him in the division.
The Cardinals are the best match even if Walker is not part of the package. With Gorman. and Carlson and 2 -3 top prospects like Liberatore and Mcreevy., even Burleson, Nootbar as well .You have the foundation of a solid Nationals team for 2023 and beyond. The Cardinals may be over paying at that point….The fact is no team has better combination of MLB ready players and prospects as the Cardinals do…so many.
Rangers fan…..NO
Let me summarize: It will take too much to get a potential mega contract, with results that will take years to evaluate! Good article took a long time to read and digest.
He should accept some end-of-the-world guaranteed $$ right now. And I would heavily front-load it, to ensure a good payday in the present. There is no future.
“…the Nationals are intrigued by names like Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, though they’d likely seek even more talent beyond that trio.”
—This isn’t the best-written paragraph, but assuming the author means the Mets, for Soto, would send the Nats all three named minor leaguers PLUS more talent, the Mets would be utter fools to do this.
Alvarez alone projects to be worth, on average, the difference through 2024 between Soto’s production and his salary. Why would the Mets also throw in a likely regular at 3B plus a promising DH?
Not to mention the likelihood they’d be dealing 18 years of control over players at position of need for the ‘honor’ of paying a DH half a billion dollars over 15 years.
It’s not my money, but I’d still advise “Don’t do it.” Soto already has old player skills. He’s slow–extremely slow for his age. He walks a ton. And he’s already showing that in a down year he may not slug .500. I can see trading the above for a 23 year old Mike Trout then signing him to 15/500, given he’s a CFer capable of 10-win seasons in his prime. But Soto? Soto’s not even prime age Mookie Betts, and he’s already a below average corner guy, seriously limiting his peak value to around 5-6 WAR, maybe 7 in a lucky year.
Don’t do it.
Mariners get: OF Juan Soto
Nationals get: OF Kyle Lewis, IF Abraham Toro, OF Jarred Kelenic, RHP Emerson Hancock (SEA No. 5 prospect), OF Alberto Rodriguez (SEA No. 7 prospect), LHP Juan Pinto (SEA No. 26 prospect)
Hey Seattle fans get it through your thick skulls nobody wants sorry as hell kelenic.
That’s actually not true not a Seattle fan but would love to have him on the Red Sox. I honestly can’t see Seattle getting Soto with Kirby and Marte involved and thats with taking back Corbin.