The Padres and right-hander Joe Musgrove have intermittently engaged in contract talks during the season, both back in April (when San Diego reportedly floated an eight-year deal worth roughly $88MM), and in recent weeks. It was just back on July 2 that The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote that negotiations had seemingly “fizzled,” thus making it seem like Musgrove would test the free agent market this winter.
However, the two sides have restarted negotiations, according to Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. More promisingly, “there is optimism the deal could be completed this week.” Whether the All-Star break represents any sort of deadline is unknown, though Musgrove has already stated that he doesn’t want talks to linger into the season’s final two months.
This much in-season negotiating is already fairly unusual, considering most players generally set Opening Day as the unofficial deadline for the end of extension talks, in order to avoid any distractions once play begins. It is also pretty unusual to see a player primed for a big free agent payday instead sign an extension with his current team this close his trip to the open market, but Musgrove stated in April that he was open to negotiating during the year. Also, considering how the lockout wiped out three months of offseason business, it could be that Musgrove was a little more flexible in continuing contract talks that likely would’ve taken place long ago in a more normal winter.
If it wasn’t for the lockout, it seems possible that the Padres might have locked up Musgrove months ago, yet he has only enhanced his value with an excellent start to the 2022 season. Named to his first All-Star team, Musgrove has a 2.42 ERA, above-average strikeout (24.8%) and walk (5.6%) rates, strong hard-contact numbers and some of the best fastball spin rates of any pitcher in the sport. These numbers have put Musgrove in the NL Cy Young Award discussion, and made him the ace of an overall solid San Diego rotation.
Acquired from the Pirates as part of a three-team trade in January 2021, Musgrove has taken his performance to a new level as a Padre, also delivering a great 2021 season that included the first no-hitter in Padres franchise history. It has made for quite the homecoming for the SoCal native, and both Musgrove and the Padres have naturally had mutual interest in keeping the relationship going for years to come.
It now seems certain that Musgrove will score a nine-figure contract if he reaches the open market, so San Diego will certainly have to significantly bump its offer up from the $88MM range (and the $11MM average annual value range). Locking up Musgrove to a major extension would add another long-term commitment to the Padres’ books, though the organization has shown a willingness to spend at the luxury tax level, paying the tax in 2021 and currently sitting just under the $230MM threshold.
Extending Musgrove would allow the Padres to cement him as the second cornerstone of its future rotation, alongside MacKenzie Gore. Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger are also both scheduled to hit free agency after the season, and Nick Martinez could also be a free agent if he exercises the first of three player options in his contract. Yu Darvish and Blake Snell are under contract only through the 2023 season, and there has even been some speculation that the Padres could look to trade Snell to create a bit more flexibility under the tax line and thus avoid a second straight year of overage.
Pad for life
that would be great for a hometown player who’s also very productive.
Not possible
ROLF = Rest Of LiFe
Son of a shepherd?
Looking at 2023, signing Musgrove would make trading Snell much more realistic.
Manaea, Clevinger and Musgrove are all impending FA, plus Martinez has pitched well enough to opt out. That is 4 legit SP potentially leaving for 2023, leaving basically Darvish, Snell, Gore, and then a lot of question marks. If you add Musgrove to that group, that gives you a decent top 3 even if you unload Snell.
Since the two sides haven’t reached an agreement on the international draft the QO system would be in effect at end of season correct?
If so,
Padres should sign Musgrove, or at least QO
QO Clevinger and Manaea
Plan on replacing them in free agency with money coming off the books from Myers (buyout exercised), Rodgers (probably gets a QO too if he can regain his closer form), Martinez (who probably opts out), Stammen, Profar (who may opt out if he stays productive)
Reiss Knehr probably gets a shot to show he can be a #4 or #5. Same with Matt Waldron, Jesse Schlotens.
They still have another week to reach that agreement I think so the QO still being around isn’t set in stone yet. Sounds like its likely to remain though because the two sides were so far off in negotiations.
I think there was also talk about possibly extending that deadline to reach an agreement, however they really should have that sorted out before the trade deadline so when teams are making trades they know whether the QO is in play or not.
If the QO is still a thing, Musgrove and Manaea will both get one. I’d lean towards Clevinger getting one as well.
I wonder what it would take to sign Manaea? He’s more than serviceable and a lefty to boot. But he’s not an ace; prob more of a 3. AAV of 15M over 5 should get it done, I would think. Anyone else?
Jon Gray just got 4/56. I’d put Manaea in the same range. 4/60ish makes sense to me. Maybe 5 if someone values the lefty aspect more.
Jon Gray is a really good comp. Also of note there, COL didn’t extend a QO on Gray, so if that is still a part of the equation next year, it could be dicey to make that offer to Manaea because he might accept and take the higher pay on the 1 year deal.
5/75M? Yeah, I think that gets it done. The AAV seems about right, but I’m wondering if 4/60M would even be enough. He’s an interesting case.
$11M per over 8 years. That’s hard to believe.
I agree. Try 5/88. Maybe even 4.
Try 3
Yeah..I was thinking something like 6/110
That’s what happens when a player has a lesser agent.
I believe they’re right up against the cap. Would an extension affect their payroll this year or next year? With all the trouble they’ve gone through staying under this year I don’t see them going over it now for an extension
No the extension would count vs the tax next year not this. So no affect on where they are vs the tax this season.
Joe was an absolute pro as a Pirate and I really enjoyed watching him pitch and develop. I’d love to see him sign an extension and remain with his hometown team, he seems like a good guy and I wish him success.
Yes sign joe . Trade snell he never wanted to be a padre we were doing great until he came off the IL . Might be able to work something out with Manea as well
I love how you act like Musgrove has no say in the matter.
When Joe Musgrove was in Pittsburgh. He was not only a good pitcher but a good guy. Would definitely be a plus if he was signed for 8 years.
Sign Joe now; trade Snell for room to add a bat (if a trade can be had); work on Clev coming back – he has shown that he is recovered and from all comments, he would likely want to stay in SD as well. He might even take a “prove it” 1 year deal. If we can’t get a bat now – holding breath for Soto (we do have the prospects but it will take 3 of top 5 for sure), then we have money in offseason to add one then.
If Clevinger stays healthy and pitches the rest of the season like he’s been pitching up to this point, (i.e. 3.50 ERA) then he’s not going to need a 1 year “prove it”. This year will have proved he’s back.
He’s good enough and has top of the rotation upside so someone is going to pay up for a multi-year deal. The only way he ends up needing a “prove it” type contract is if he gets hurt again, but hopefully he’s past that now and can keep performing like he has been.
He may not need it for sure. He still has been on the IL a lot this year though even if not for arm related issues, still translates to missed time which in his case translates to not as many opportunities to prove it. If he gets 12 more starts and has close to recent performances I agree he has proven it though. I wonder if the stigma of a 2nd TJ still follows him in FA though.
I’d say sign him over Manea or realistically anyone else that may be available in FA though.
I like Musgrove, Darvish, Clev, Gore, Martinez (if no opt out)/Snell (if not traded)/Knehr/Weathers/Morejon or whoever else might show up in ST as a 5 or 6.
There is always an “innings eater” looking for a comeback deal that is worth a shot to add into the mix on that prove it type deal as well.
Not many teams would have that top to bottom depth / quality.
Soto is an awesome player but I won’t deplete the farm system for 1 player. It takes a team to win games not just 1 player. Yeah Tatis, Machado, Soto would look awesome in the lineup. I rather get 3-5 semi average guys that are balanced with hitting/defense than 1player and no farm system. Tatis should come up shortly and when he’s in the lineup, the lineup seems to rally behind him and Machado. I rather use the money on Musgrove, Manaea, and Clevinger. I hate to lose Manaea and Clevinger both for nothing. I won’t mind resigning Taylor too if it’s in a descent range.
Musgrove has probably doubled the AAV of the Padres initial offer of $11M per year. I think he’s proved that he is worthy of $20M per year or more given his production. Perhaps they move to a 4/$80M offer, with an option year for Year 5. Maybe he’d be willing to give a little on AAV for extra term, like 7/$126M ($18M/yr) but I don’t see him giving up too much on the AAV side based on his performance to date.
I’ve been in the 6/120 or as you say, 7/130 ish if he wants that extra year, for some time now.
He wants to play a long time for them. HE probably suggested the 8 years to keep payroll down.
8/ $152?
I agree it was probably his idea because teams almost never go over 5-6 for a pitcher.
How about we say 8/140 that way he gets the extra 2 years at 10/year for the “older” years and he gets his first 6 at 20/year.
Are you printing the contract or me?
“Dorothy Mantooth is a Saint, do you hear me!!”
Everyone is optimistic until and unless the Cubs get involved. Not only is it the most enticing team players could ask for, but they know that by signing with the Cubs, they’ll have a few rings before they retire. The commitment to winning has never been stronger and while both Correa and Soto will be joining Chicago, plenty of room for Musgrove as well
I’ll believe that when I see it. Ricketts is cheap.
If he gets to free agency I’d love to see him in Philly. Musgrove-Wheeler-Nola is the stuff of dreams.
That’s low key embarrassing considering the money they’ve shelled out on much lesser talent.
8/88 seems a bit low for a guy that has pitched as well as Musgrove has the last couple seasons. I would say that a Gausman like contract would be closer to what it would take to get a deal done. 7 years and $140 million? 6 and $120 million?
A *bit* low? They could have slapped him in the face with a glove like to signal a duel, and it would have been less insulting.
We now have a LOT of hindsight…
Did any of the rumored players to be involved in trade talks when the Pirates were trading Gerrit Cole end up being better than Joe Musgrove?
None of the Yankees did.
Sign Musgrove in the winter if you miss him so much.
I love how you act like Musgrove has no say in the matter. ,wink
How much money do the Pirates have on their books? They can afford to pay him whatever he wants.
The actual gorilla likely has better reading comprehension skills. Safe to say.
Will be another bad contract to have to join others
It should always be understood that an initial offer is an under value in an attempt to save money on surplus production from a player. Market value is market value. It’s neither good nor bad, it just is.
They’re making this offer as he’s in the midst of a career year and on the cusp of free agency.
I am guessing their argument is that he’s more likely to regress or stagnate than to continue to improve, so they’re offering him short term money over long term years.
I think a short term deal right now could be for as much as 2 years/$70M or more likely 3 years/$97M.
Given that, even assuming a regression to the mean of his performance, $11M a season is an underpay over 8 years.
I’d look at it as two 4 year deal combined:
4 years/$110M and 4 years/$45M.
So, 8 years/$155M is more appropriate.
Even with a discount due to the guarantee, it would still look more like 8 years/$142M.
We are close – I just replied above at 8/140.
If they were at 8/88 before, no chance they’re going that high..I’m betting 6-7yrs-110-120m gets it done. Could also see him getting some kind of personal services provision put in there to keep him in the organization after he retires. He loves SD, and wants to be there. Think this is gonna be a rare (these days) case of him giving a substantial home town discount.
“Substantial hometown discount” is not even rare these days – not happening these days.
A slight discount to stay – ok, probably not out of the realm of possibilities if they get it done.
I’ll stick with 6/120 or 8/140 (he wants the years added).
Teams will line up to pay 6/120.
If he was going to take a “substantial hometown discount” it would have happened by now.
I got 8/130 something like that. They probably go more years to keep his aav down a little.
Always makes me laugh how Padres fans think he’s automatically going to stay just because he’s an SD native and pitched their first no hitter.
Money talks and BS walks.
Eyeglasses were on sale at Costco. I read every comment and I didn’t see one guarantee. I think fans are just optimistic that his desire to stay in town is real.
I saw at least one “sign Joe.” Implying that “Joe” has no say in the matter.
Just hope and pray that neither of Ken Rosenthal or Bob Nightengale reports they are close to a deal.
The phrase “sign Joe” appears twice in this thread. That’s two strikes for both acting like the player has no say in the matter and acting like they are on some kind of first name basis with him.
three times if you include the post above where Thelegendaryharambe said “sign Joe in the Winter” implying that Joe has no say in the matter…irony says hi
I think “sign Joe” translates to “commit and concentrate on re-signing Joe”… I’m relatively sure that noone in this thread thinks or implied Joe has no say in the matter. Go Pads
The fact that the Pirates have the chance to do that, regardless of whether or not they actually do it, definitely swings the trade in their favor.
And do all of the “Trade Snellers” just not realize that we traded Luis Patiño and Cole Wilcox for him and that our 2023 rotation is currently “Snell, Darvish, Gore, ?, ?” (Not necessarily in that order)?
Hard to believe the Padres traded for an entire rotation pretty much and really didn’t lose much in terms of prospects. Good for them. for trying to win.
Cal Quantrill, Josh Naylor, Owen Miller, Gabriel Arias, Luis Patiño, Cole Wilcox, Owen Caissie and David Bednar all say hi.
Ty France, Andres Munoz, Taylor Trammell, and the formidable Luis Torrens say HI to Austin Nola as well.
@ Ignorant. It’s a bit of a reach to imply that the trade to Seattle directly resulted in the present Padres SP rotation, so I’ll just assume you’re just nursing a general grievance out of the blue?
That trade sucked too but we didn’t get a starting pitcher out of it.
Six years 180 million or he is a Dodger!
He better get Boras on the phone…