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Burnes: No Extension Talks Yet With Brewers

By Darragh McDonald | September 13, 2022 at 2:01pm CDT

Brewers right-hander Corbin Burnes is getting near the end of a third straight excellent campaign, establishing himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball. Once this season is done, he will have just two years of team control remaining, making him a fairly logical extension candidate. However, Burnes tells Adam McCalvy of MLB.com that no such talks have taken place yet.

“You would think,” Burnes said when asked if this offseason would be a good time to get negotiations started. “You would think maybe there would have been some initial talks last offseason, but nothing.”

Burnes struggled a bit to get acclimated to the majors, especially in 2019. That year, he allowed an incredible 17 home runs in just 49 innings, producing a shocking 38.6% HR/FB rate and 8.82 ERA. However, he righted the ship immaculately in 2020, throwing 59 2/3 innings in the shortened season with a 2.11 ERA, 36.7% strikeout rate and 46.4% ground ball rate. His 10% walk rate was a bit high, but it was still an excellent breakout.

Though some might have written this off as a small sample flash-in-the-pan, Burnes quickly erased those concerns in 2021. He threw 167 innings that year with a 2.43 ERA, 35.6% strikeout rate, 48.8% ground ball rate and cut his walk rate effectively in half to 5.2%. He was awarded the National League Cy Young for that elite season and has been pitching at almost the same level again in 2022.

Though the Brewers are surely delighted to have seen Burnes blossom to this degree, it does mean that he will become expensive. He reached arbitration for the first time last offseason and is earning $6.5MM here in 2022. Since he’s having another excellent season, he’ll be due another hefty raise for 2023 and likely for 2024 as well. For a pitcher of Burnes’ caliber, it will still be incredible value for money, though it does raise the possibility of the team considering a trade. After all, the Brewers did just send out another excellent pitcher who was getting expensive: Josh Hader.

Hader isn’t an exact apples-to-apples comparison to Burnes, as he’s a reliever and also qualified for Super Two status, meaning he would get four trips through arbitration instead of three. There are similarities as well, though. By the time of his trade this year, Hader was making $11MM and had a year and a half of team control remaining. Burnes will likely be making a similar salary next year and will have the same amount of control when the deadline is rolling around. The parallels aren’t lost on Burnes.

“For anyone who isn’t on a long-term deal, once you get into your later years of arbitration, anything can happen,” Burnes said. “We saw it with Hader. We might see it this offseason. I don’t know what route the front office is going to take.” Burnes then added, “Who knows what’s going to happen this offseason. Who knows what’s going to happen at the next Trade Deadline. At this point, there’s a couple of guys remaining from our 2018 and ‘19 postseason teams, and it’s like, this could be maybe the last year. Maybe next year is the last year. Maybe we get two more years. We don’t really know. It’s hard to look at it like that but you don’t know what’s going to happen.”

With most other teams, it would be a no-brainer to keep an ace like Burnes through arbitration and perhaps even extend him. The Brewers have never really been huge spenders, however, and financial concerns will creep into anything they do. They ran an Opening Day payroll of $132MM this year, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That placed them 19th among the 30 teams in the league in that department, spending less than half of teams like the Dodgers and Mets, though it still represented a franchise high.

Lorenzo Cain’s contract will be off the books following this year, which will open up room for another significant deal beside Christian Yelich on the ledger. However, Burnes isn’t the only player that Milwaukee will have to think about. Brandon Woodruff, Willy Adames, Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer are in the same position as Burnes, going through arbitration with free agency approaching after the 2024 season. If the Brewers have some payroll space to work with, they might want to use it on some of that group instead of Burnes, as they would all likely be slightly behind him on the earnings scale.

An extension for a pitcher of Burnes’ caliber wouldn’t be cheap, after all. Since February of 2014, there have only been six extensions given to starting pitchers between four and five years of service time, which is where Burnes will be this winter. Of those six, one of them was for veteran journeyman Wade LeBlanc, who is not a good comparison for Burnes. Neither is Mike Clevinger, who signed a two-year deal covering his final arbitration seasons while he was about to undergo Tommy John surgery. The Rockies recently gave extensions to Kyle Freeland and German Marquez, who each got five years and over $50MM, despite being nowhere near Burnes’ level. Kyle Hendricks got $55.5MM over four years back in 2019 after years of solid performance, though not quite at the elite tier Burnes has reached so far.

Perhaps the best comparison is Jacob deGrom, who signed a four-year, $120.5MM extension in March of 2019. He had already agreed to a $17MM salary for 2019, with this new extension covering four years beyond that. deGrom had just finished a phenomenal 2018 season wherein he threw 217 innings with a 1.70 ERA, 32.2% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 46.4% ground ball rate. That season is a notch above what Burnes has done so far, though that was a huge jump over deGrom’s previous two seasons, with the Mets’ righty registering a 3.53 ERA in 2017 and a 3.04 in 2016. deGrom was also going into his age-31 season, reflecting his late-bloomer trajectory. Burnes is turning 28 next month, meaning he could quite reasonably expect a longer commitment than what deGrom got.

Only once have the Brewers gone into nine-figure territory on a contract, which was the nine-year, $188.5MM extension given to Yelich in March of 2020. That deal is still on the books for a good while, paying Yelich $26MM annually from now until the end of the 2028 season. Extending Burnes would require adding another contract with an average annual value in that vicinity, likely even higher. If the club continues running out payrolls similar to this year’s $132MM Opening Day figure, extending Burnes would mean close to half their budget being used up on just two players.

Thanks largely to an excellent pitching staff, the Brewers have been consistently competitive in recent years, despite the modest spending. They’ve qualified for the postseason in each of the previous four seasons, including a pair of division titles. Despite a rough stretch here in late 2022, they’re still in the mix to make the playoffs again, sitting two games behind the Padres for the final Wild Card spot. However, with many of their core players continuing to earn higher salaries, they might have to make some tough decisions about who they want to try to keep and who’s a candidate to follow Hader out of town.

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Milwaukee Brewers Corbin Burnes

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71 Comments

  1. Louholtz22

    3 years ago

    Hey Burnes, keep your trap shut and pitch. Don’t bring up the Hader trade. You knew they weren’t gonna pay 18 million for a closer next year. The whole team has been soft after that trade.

    2
    Reply
    • iverbure

      3 years ago

      What everyone should do here is look up articles from 2019 when burnes had a 9 era. I bet a lot of experts on here said burnes needed to be released.

      1
      Reply
    • fisher40

      3 years ago

      Incompetent so called fan boy you are.

      Reply
  2. chemfinancing

    3 years ago

    Burns could go to any team he wants

    2
    Reply
    • Louholtz22

      3 years ago

      And EVERY smart team will offer a pile of prospects for him. That’s the Brewers plan. I see them trying to extend Woodruff but Burnes is gone.

      3
      Reply
      • Curly Was The Smart Stooge

        3 years ago

        Yanks will over pay & Burnes him out!

        2
        Reply
      • BmoreBallistics

        3 years ago

        So a smart market team will offer pile of prospects… just to let him walk because they as well cannot afford his price tag if he keeps pitching well.
        Oh little lou where is your brain at?

        2
        Reply
      • chemfinancing

        3 years ago

        I don’t see him going anywhere.. unless he wants to

        Reply
  3. rally squirrel

    3 years ago

    167 innings in a CY campaign. That has to be the fewest ever by a non reliever to win a CYA.

    7
    Reply
    • angelsfan4life

      3 years ago

      Blake Snell, would beg to differ.

      Reply
      • Get Off My Mound

        3 years ago

        Blake Snell pitched over 180 innings in his Cy Young year. So, no, he wouldn’t beg to differ.

        8
        Reply
    • Curly Was The Smart Stooge

      3 years ago

      CYA actually means cover your a$$ for the owners
      Very few pitchers qualify for this anymore.
      Everyone is SO afraid to let pitchers go past 100 pitches, sad
      They all have to “throw” 100 mph, few “pitch” anymore

      6
      Reply
  4. rally squirrel

    3 years ago

    167 innings in 2021 has to be the fewest ever by a non reliever to win a CYA outside of shortened seasons.

    1
    Reply
    • Louholtz22

      3 years ago

      If the Phillies had made the playoffs, the lean prolly would’ve gone to Wheeler for CY. What’s a joke is that Judge is the favorite to win MVP this year. Guerrero pretty much did the same thing last year. But it’s not NY and Toronto missed the postseason. Ohtahni is the best player in the game and it’s not even close…

      4
      Reply
      • drasco036

        3 years ago

        Are you seriously comparing vlad jr. 2021 to Judge this year?
        How about this 6.6 WAR to 8.7 WAR (already).

        Not saying vlad didn’t have a great year, he did, but his 2021 is not on par to what Judge has done this season, providing value on both sides of the game while going in a “historic” pace since in baseball we will credit Pujols for 700 home runs but won’t credit Sosa, McGwire or Bonds for breaking the home run record.

        4
        Reply
        • mlb1225

          3 years ago

          Even aside from WAR, Judge is currently batting .307/.410/.679 with a .450 wOBA and 202 wRC+. Vlad batted .311/.407/.601 with a .419 wOBA and 166 wRC+. Sure, Vlad had a similar OBP and BA, but Judge already has as many XBH as Vlad, but in nearly 100 fewer plate appearances. Since Bond’s retirement in 2007, Judge’s season currently ranks top 5 in OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and 7th in fWAR.

          4
          Reply
      • itsmeheyhi

        3 years ago

        It’s not the best player award. The Yankees would be a borderline playoff team without Judge.

        Reply
    • mlb1225

      3 years ago

      The next lowest innings total by a non-reliever in a non-strike/pandemic/war shortened season to win the award was Snell with 180.1. Only six starters in non-shortened campaigns have won it without reaching 200 IP. Both Burnes and Robbie Ray are two of those names.

      2
      Reply
    • chemfinancing

      3 years ago

      Lets remember he missed about a month in April-may due to the covid sickness

      Reply
  5. CubsWin108

    3 years ago

    cubs will take him, we need a ace. Would be perfect for both sides, we have lots of prospects in the system. Would jump-start Cubs contention and brewers rebuild.

    1
    Reply
    • Louholtz22

      3 years ago

      The Brewers aren’t going into a rebuild. They plan on trying to be competitive every year. They’re following the TB, low dollar market team way. Do it smart and take your shot.

      2
      Reply
      • CubsWin108

        3 years ago

        That’s exactly why they would be willing to trade Burnes, if all what it would take to get burnes is 3/4 of our top 10 prospects I would take it. The ML club is ready with talent on its way, all what we need is a total ACE to soldifiy our future. And in return, the Brewers can ship off Burnes, Woodruff, and a few other veterns, (maybe even they’ll package yellch into a deal with cubs) and jumpstart a rebuild, they had their shot at a WS, but 3 straight years of playoff losses, and what looks like playoff miss all together this season, leaves no reason at all to keep trying to contend, especially with NL risers in coming years such as: Marlins, Diamondbacks, Pirates, and powers like: Dodgers, Braves, Mets. The Brewers will stand no chance at all.

        Reply
        • iverbure

          3 years ago

          Cubs fans saw how the team won in 2016 and still don’t know how to build a winner.

          Reply
        • CubsWin108

          3 years ago

          umm we won in 2016, and endured a total of 6 years of good baseball, looking towards the future we have a 23/24 outlook, and it’s a different FO, we can delevop pitching now, were one of the best teams in the entire league when it comes to pitchers, the FO has really taken a turn, so many guys this season, Robertson, Effross, Hughes, Smyly, Sampson, Steele, Thompson, with rookies like Assad, and Weseneski, All what we need is a ace and a few RP signings and were a top 10 staff, thats building a winner.

          2
          Reply
    • fisher40

      3 years ago

      Why would the brewers trade within the division?? That makes no sense. That’s the equivalent of the Packers trading their best defensive player to the Bears. Idiotic and stupid

      2
      Reply
      • CubsWin108

        3 years ago

        Because the Brewers can no longer contend, MLB Pipeline ranked their farm system as 25th heading into the season, they’re two games out of the WC race, I don’t see the Padres giving up that spot anytime soon so they’re falling out of contention, we already saw them trade one of their best pitchers in franchise history at the deadline while they were contending, and it makes all the sense in the world to capitalize when Burnes value is at its highest, might as well ship him off to the Cubs, (if they make the best offer) while your team is gonna suck for 3 years.

        Reply
        • fisher40

          3 years ago

          They’re contending this year!! They’re still in it for a wild card, 2 games out The brewers would NEVER trade anyone within the division. Especially to the worthless cubs lol

          Reply
        • Cap & Crunch

          3 years ago

          Seems like you got everything but reality properly squared up in your brain there Cubs108

          1
          Reply
        • AllinTX

          3 years ago

          @Cubs
          You sound delusional

          Reply
        • CubsWin108

          3 years ago

          If the Cubs put the best offer out there I’m sure they would take it, its not like David Sterns is the brightest guy, hes a average gm

          1
          Reply
        • BmoreBallistics

          3 years ago

          @Cubs your logic oin your team is pretty solid. Where your wrong is.. the brewers will not trade him to the cubs.. even if it’s the best offer oin paper. In reality, in application of the real world mlb FO. That is not happening.

          Reply
        • Chris Koch

          3 years ago

          Brewers minors rank right now must be 8-13. All because Jackson Chourio is climbing his way to top 5-10 on lists. Sal Frelick should be top 40s in these newer ranks. Cubs would never see a trade with Milwaukee unless swapping middling RP or utility infielder.

          Reply
        • AllinTX

          3 years ago

          If you had said 8 of their top 10 prospects then yes, I believe you. But 3 or 4 top 10 that’s what a lot of teams would give and others have better propects than the cubs. So yes, you’re being delusional.

          Reply
    • Get Off My Mound

      3 years ago

      Lol, the Brewers are not trading Burnes in the division, let alone to the Cubs. You can keep grasping for straws, though.

      Reply
  6. Highest IQ

    3 years ago

    Josh hader hasn’t been excellent this year.

    1
    Reply
    • Louholtz22

      3 years ago

      Hader was lights out up until about a week before the all star break. The Brewers saw something and moved him. Glad they did, they might’ve got nothing for him

      2
      Reply
      • DarkSide830

        3 years ago

        Hader waa lights out until Matt Vierling broke him 🙂

        Reply
  7. DiehardFriarsFan

    3 years ago

    Anything that keeps the cheeseheads out of the playoffs is fine by me

    2
    Reply
    • Louholtz22

      3 years ago

      What’s with the Wisconsin animosity? I hope your purchased team falls on its face now. Machado is a loser in every Brewer fans mind. Kicking Agular on his way to first base with the dodgers in the postseason. Karma is gonna stay with him

      4
      Reply
      • DiehardFriarsFan

        3 years ago

        “Cheesehead” is a bad term? Since when ? I happen to love cheese thank you very much.

        3
        Reply
        • drasco036

          3 years ago

          It’s not a bad term, the guy who replied to you is just an idiot….

          4
          Reply
        • BmoreBallistics

          3 years ago

          @drasco036. Stop spreading the truth around!

          3
          Reply
        • DiehardFriarsFan

          3 years ago

          Indeed, Drasco, indeed. Well said lad.

          2
          Reply
        • riffraff

          3 years ago

          Diehard..cheesehead really refers more the Packers fans or Wisconsiners ( Wisconsinites?) not so much the brewers. Its odd because I believe it started with the brewers but only caught on when the Packers adopted it. Perhaps Hopheads for Brewers? No Idea what to call the nba team. And yes..cheese is friggin amazing lol

          Reply
        • DiehardFriarsFan

          3 years ago

          RiffRaff- haha yeah that’s true about the Packers originally coining the cheesehead term, just thought I’d throw in the Brewers for the sake of the overall environs.

          2
          Reply
        • Louholtz22

          3 years ago

          You’re a loser. Nice interjection, moron.

          Reply
  8. C Yards Jeff

    3 years ago

    Orioles owner Angelos has given GM Elias the go ahead to spend this off season. Birds are loaded with high end prospects. That said, part of the return package for someone like Burnes undoubtedly for sure would be starter pitcher Rodriguez. Tough call for Elias!

    Reply
    • rememberthecoop

      3 years ago

      So you would trade Grayson and all his years of pre-arb potential for Burnes and his greater certainty but less control & lots more $$? Interesting. But it’s a moot point – Elias isn’t gonna move G-Rod.

      1
      Reply
      • C Yards Jeff

        3 years ago

        Nope. I wouldn’t do it. Just saying to get Burnes, they would want Rodriguez as part of the package. Unfortunately, the talented DL Hall is a hot mess and seriously doubt the Brewers would ask for him as the featured player in the deal.

        To your point, shocked if Elias would move GrayRod. Regards.

        Reply
  9. LordD99

    3 years ago

    An 8/320 should get it done, hence he will be traded.

    1
    Reply
  10. SliderWithCheese

    3 years ago

    He’s a very unattractive man which most likely limits the big market teams that would otherwise show interest.

    1
    Reply
    • MannyPineappleExpress9

      3 years ago

      It sure limited randy Johnson didn’t it?

      4
      Reply
      • Cohn Joppolella

        3 years ago

        He’s a solid 7 by MLB standards..

        Reply
  11. ShoelessJoeHallofFame

    3 years ago

    My Red Sox will take Burnes off Milwaukee’s hands since Stearns fleeced Chaim Bloom on the Jackie Bradley trade this past off-season. Here’s the trade proposal: Burnes and Christian Yelich for Chris Sale and prospects. The average annual value of Sale and Yelich is a wash. The extra years on Yelich’s deal and the tbd prospects cover the Burnes portion of the trade.

    1
    Reply
    • colonel flagg

      3 years ago

      …but Yelich plays. Sale, not so much.

      Reply
  12. Let MLB use PEDs

    3 years ago

    I think the dodgers might match up best with milwaukee on a Burnes trade. Since 2016, Friedman has drafted 4 players out of St Mary’s college, Corbin’s alma mater. LA has the prospects to get him and payroll space to keep him.

    Milwaukee probably pulls the trigger on a Ryan Pepiot, Michael Busch, & Carson Taylor type package. Pepiot replaces Burnes, Busch replaces Wong, and Taylor is a lotto ticket at catcher in the upper minors.

    3
    Reply
    • BmoreBallistics

      3 years ago

      Dodgers are so loaded they can keep doing this dance for awhile. Not a bad trade.. within reason

      2
      Reply
    • AllinTX

      3 years ago

      If that’s all it takes then the Rangers have a better chance if they offer White, Foscue, Winn and Huff.
      If they want Garver instead of Huff that’s a yes.

      1
      Reply
      • Let MLB use PEDs

        3 years ago

        That’s a good offer, gives milwaukee 2 SP prospects to replace Burnes with. Huff does strike out a ton but if Stearns thinks White is legit and Winn can turn it around outside the PCL, they should send Burnes to Texas.
        4 prospects and all of them top 100 seems top of the market for 2 years of an ace but Huff and Winn have big question marks too. I think it’s a fair deal for both sides

        Reply
        • AllinTX

          3 years ago

          Yeah, I hate to give up both White and Winn (specially White) but I rather keep Jung, Leiter, Porter and Kumar.
          No Taveras, no Heim, no Zavala either lol.
          I think that’s a legit offer. White and Foscue seem legit.

          Reply
  13. stubby66

    3 years ago

    I’m going with the belief that the Brewers decided to clear some salaries off the books and seeing where the young guys are at they are being smart with locking up a couple of these young players to team friendly contracts. Then they know what they can offer Woodruff and Burnes their extensions. Hader wssnt going to be extended not just because he is expensive but we can move Williams to closer with Uribe taking the set up role.Plus Mark needs to take a look at his FO and coaches. Let’s face it besides the Adames and Tellez trades Stearns has failed miserably. He failed getting any gems in minor league deals. Face it free agent minor leaguers don’t wanna sign in Milwaukee because they don’t get a chance. Brewers could save a lot of money trading him to the Mets ( trade him for Viento).

    Reply
    • Louholtz22

      3 years ago

      Failed miserably? Hader and Yelich alone got them to four straight postseason births. Houser and Lauer are horrible, you’re right. Oh, wait, they’re not. Prospects are all suspects. Some suspects the Brewers have gotten are pretty damn good.

      Reply
      • stubby66

        3 years ago

        Yellich and Hader are the work of Melvin

        Reply
        • colonel flagg

          3 years ago

          Hader was Melvin’s. Yelich came over in 2018. That was Stearns.

          Reply
  14. fisher40

    3 years ago

    Burnes has a cy-young in his back pocket pricing himself out of a contract with the brewers. Which they won’t be able to afford. Enjoy him now brewers fans because in a few years he’ll be pitching for someone else

    1
    Reply
    • baumann

      3 years ago

      He’ll be pitching for someone else opening day next year.

      2
      Reply
  15. TheStevilEmpire1

    3 years ago

    I can certainly get behind all the people saying he could possibly be traded. His value is as high as it will ever be. He’s won a Cy Young and has 3 more years of arbitration control. The Brewers could get a war chest of prospects for him. It might be time to cash in that chip.

    1
    Reply
  16. AllinTX

    3 years ago

    If the Rangers can get him for Winn, Foscue, White and Huff yes. If they want a 5th one like catcher/1B Garver, Harris or Gutierrez yes.
    If not, then offer the same package for Lopez.

    1
    Reply
  17. smotpoker

    3 years ago

    “Only once have the Brewers gone into nine-figure territory on a contract, which was the nine-year, $188.5MM extension given to Yelich in March of 2020.” Not true. Braun’s extension was over $100M.

    1
    Reply
  18. Chris Koch

    3 years ago

    Maybe Burnes calling Hader-Hader instead of Josh is telling on clubhouse vibes. A reason to trade Hader away.

    Reply
  19. fisher40

    3 years ago

    Brewers need to be smart and extend him to a long term contract. He’s already said he’d welcome an extension

    Reply

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