Outfielders Michael Conforto and Cody Bellinger are both risky bets with huge payoff potential and it seems the Cubs are interested in putting some money down there. Jon Heyman of The New York Post connects the Cubs to both of them and also adds the Astros to the lengthy list of Bellinger suitors.
Conforto, 30 in March, is a real wild card since he had an excellent run of play from 2017 to 2020 but has had a frustrating time since then. He hit 97 home runs during that strong period, producing an overall batting line of .265/.369/.496. That production was 33% better than the league average hitter, as evidenced by his 133 wRC+.
He slumped in 2021 by hitting just 14 homers and slashing .232/.344/.384. His 106 wRC+ shows that he was still a bit above average, but it was a noticeable drop from his previous output. He received and rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, still believing he could find a bigger payday despite the down season. Unfortunately, he injured his shoulder during the lockout, requiring surgery that wiped out his 2022 entirely.
After one down year and a lost campaign, it’s difficult to know what to expect from Conforto going forward. That uncertainty will put a damper on his market but he’ll surely find teams interested in taking a shot, hoping he can return to the kind of hitter he was a few years ago. He’s already been connected to the Yankees and Mets this offseason and has connected to the Blue Jays prior to that.
Bellinger, 27, is a somewhat similar case, as he also had a strong four-year run from 2017 to 2020, including an MVP season in 2019. Over that stretch, Bellinger hit 123 home runs and slashed .273/.364/.547 for a wRC+ of 137. However, he injured his shoulder during the 2020 postseason on an ill-advised celebration and hasn’t been himself since. He hit a dismal .165/.240/.302 in 2021 and rebounded slightly to .210/.265/.389 in 2022, but that latter line was still well below average.
Bellinger comes with a higher floor than Conforto as his speed and defense can make him valuable even if his bat doesn’t rebound. FanGraphs calculated him to be worth 1.7 wins above replacement this year, even with the tepid offensive production. Conforto, however, doesn’t rate out as well in those departments and really needs to produce at the plate in order to be useful.
For the Cubs, it’s not shocking to see that they are considering adding an outfielder with their lack of clarity on the grass. Seiya Suzuki is the only long-term piece in place right now, as he has four years remaining on his contract and should have right field locked down. In left field, Ian Happ should be the everyday option but he is just one year away from reaching free agency. In center field, the Cubs used a handful of different options in 2022 with no one securing the job. They also don’t have an obvious designated hitter at the moment, making it easy to slot another potent bat into their lineup.
After rebuilding in recent years, the Cubs have been rumored to be considering more aggressive spending in order to help push back to contention. They delivered on that last year to a degree, giving multi-year deals to Suzuki and Marcus Stroman, in addition to a batch of one-year contracts. Neither Bellinger nor Conforto will require top-of-the-market deals, given their recent struggles. Bellinger is reportedly looking for a one-year deal in order to hopefully return to free agency with a stronger platform season. Conforto is apparently looking for a deal somewhat similar to what Carlos Rodón got from the Giants, a two-year guarantee that allows him to opt out if he has a strong showing in year one.
The Cubs should have lots of payroll room to work with, as they are currently pegged at about $127MM, per Roster Resource. That’s well shy of 2022’s $143MM Opening Day figure and their franchise high of $203MM from 2019, with figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ve been rumored to be in the market for the top free agent shortstops, but it’s possible that they end up losing out to clubs that are more firmly in win-now mode. Whether they succeed in that area or not, turning a 74-win team into a contender in one offseason is a challenge. Taking short-term fliers on bounceback candidates like Conforto and Bellinger makes plenty of sense, as they have the potential to both bolster the club’s chances in 2023 while also potentially becoming trade candidates at next year’s deadline if they fall back in the standings again.
As for the Astros, it was recently reported that they are targeting left-handed hitting outfielders. This is in part due to the fact that Michael Brantley is now a free agent, leaving them with Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker as the only left-handers locked into the lineup. Bellinger would help balance the lineup but, as mentioned, there’s uncertainty in what kind of production he’s likely to provide. The Astros have avoided lengthy commitments in recent years, as the last free agent they signed to a deal longer than two years was Josh Reddick back in 2016.
Bellinger’s desire for a one-year deal certainly fits their M.O., and his defensive prowess would afford the club opportunities. Alvarez got into 56 games in left field this year, a personal high for him. It’s possible he continues pushing that number but he’s still likely to spend at least some time as the designated hitter. Chas McCormick is a strong defender in center field but he hits from the right side, meaning he and Bellinger could potentially be deployed in a platoon. McCormick hit .340/.409/.563 against lefties last year has a career 125 wRC+ versus righties but just a 99 against southpaws. On days when Alvarez is the DH, McCormick and Bellinger taking the field next to Tucker could give the club a very strong defensive trio.
Houston’s payroll is actually not far off from last year’s, as Roster Resource currently has them around $164MM. That’s just $11MM shy of last year’s $175MM Opening Day figure, per Cot’s. Even a modest deal that Bellinger will likely require would get them closer to or over last year’s number, but it wouldn’t be surprising if they push their spending up on the heels of a World Series victory.
Heyman says that there are 11 teams in the Bellinger sweepstakes, which also includes known suitors in the Yankees, Giants, Rockies and Blue Jays.
I’d take Michael C as a risk over Cody
Not on a 2 year deal with an opt out after year one. If he sucks your screwed for 2 years with him. If he’s good, your gamble only got you one year.
But if he’s producing in the first half, you could trade him and at least get something back.
the cubs should definitely sign Bellinger. in that band of they play in, he’d hit 40+ hrs.
bandbox
That’s a common miscomception. The park plays much larger when the wind blows in.
Wrigley’s foul poles are 355 feet from the plate. Today, that’s the longest distance down the line of any field in baseball.
I hope you’re factoring in those baskets which should be illegal and torn down.
There’s that intelligent spending Jed promised us. Everyone that’s hoping for a top 4 shortstop is going to be disappointed.
Cubs are a longshot for a SS, mainly because several other teams that need a SS are already contenders. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but you got to have a plan B, if it doesn’t happen.
Pretty sure your A plan and Cubs A plan aren’t the same.
sgtschultz;
Do you think if the Cubs sign the best free agent position player and the best free agent pitcher that they’ll be contenders to go to the WS in 2023?
Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal have been playing together since they were kids, what more could you want from your MI? Have to give that tandem at least a couple years to develop.
lol
Cubs fans man… I tell ya.
Trolling on a Cubs article cause the White Sox are that boring… Sox fans,I tell ya…
Im from Joliet, born in ’79, been an A’s fan since ’86 because of McGwire and Canseco, and a Sox fan since the mid nineties when that A’s team broke up, my dad lives in the San Jouquin valley but also from Joliet.
What more? How about a couple of guys that can hit. Madrigal has a low ceiling and Hoerner isn’t much better.
both Hoerner and Madrigal are ideal players to develop in terms of value proposition, both have legitimately high upside with high floors, and can be extended long term on good terms.
Madrigal was very good for the wsox until they made the dumbest trade of the century for kimbrell, who has obviously lost it the Sox had their 2b man and gave him up for nothing. they didn’t have a 2b manlast season won’t next season and into the foreseeable future.
I’m actually going to be surprised if the Cubs do not land a top shortstop this off-season.
It’s a pretty weak free agent class (not as weak as next years positionally) but there are several players that can be had on short term deals (1-2 years) that would fit the Cubs perfectly and given the Cubs minor league depth and the addition of the DH, we have flexibility for choice A or B in several cases.
The Cubs have targeted Bellinger, like several have. However Conforto could be a pivot as well as Joey Gallo. The Cubs could move Happ back to CF if Gallo is incapable of center giving them plus defenders at the corner.
First base/DH Abreu, JD Martinez, possibly Belt all make sense. Not a huge Bell fan. Martinez at DH and roll with Wisdom until Mervis can take over.
Shortstop I believe one of the big four end up on the north side.
They can make a mid-grade rotation and bullpen addition and still be below the luxury tax threshold by about 10 million with around 60 potentially coming off the books again the following season.
Hey, dreaming is free drasco…
Really constructive criticism there, coop.
What’s it like being so weak in real life that you resort to message boards to throw lame anonymous insults at complete strangers? Did it give you a chuckle? Did your balls drop just slightly? Maybe a sudden rush of endorphins that you typically do not feel on the day to day because the opposite sex rejects you and you lack even just one alpha characteristic… live your dream as for it only exists in your mind.
If that isn’t the Pot calling the Kettle black………. And I’d tell Happ to hang his phony Gold Glove on the wall, But he’d probably drop it.
Happ in left Suzuki in right where would Conforto go backup outfield and some DH? Sure if it is cheap enough
That’ll still get them about 78 boring wins.
you have to understand that the big four SS want to play on a contender, not on a rebuilding team. as much as I would hate to see him on the north side, I think j.d. Martinez would be a good fit.
He also keeps insisting Happ can play CF, Which he can’t. If the Cubs signed Conforto and Bellinger, Happ would be on the first trade out of town and Conforto in LF and Belli in CF.
You keep insisting Happ is a terrible defender, good thing he has that gold glove to give him comfort.
Wait, you obviously know more than baseball writers since you know more than gms, scouts ans pbos. Tell me again who the Cubs should sign… who’s good… who’s bad… your opinion matters to people
As much as you try to deflect it, Happ can’t play CF.and that Gold Glove is a joke plain and simple. Think you should face reality that if Canario and Davis were healthy Happ would be gone. And he’s probably gone anyway as there are tons of guys who can play LF. And BTW, what are your credentials? You mouth off all the time like you’re the resident genius. I think most of your ideas stink. Ross will never play Happ in CF, So go play with your Big Wheel.
And the simple fact is that Happ will probably sign for more than the 11 million dollars he’s projected in arbitration because he made the All Star team for reasons I can’t fathom, And he’s not even worth 10 million. So it’s launch time. The Cubs won’t let it go to arbitration because he’d probably get more, So they’ll give him a deal and peddle him and you’ll have to switch teams or find a new fan club to be self imposed president of. Thank God.
Of course you think my ideas stink…. You have a complete lack of baseball iq and critical thinking skills.
Interested in Bellinger? They gotta compete with 29 other teams to get him..Even the Dodgers want him back now he’s so popular.
@Trumbo only 29? It’s not just interest here in the US, he’s got offers from Japan, Korea, all out international bidding war. Bellinger is going to be the first player to be waived and get a $100M contract……….Or the past 3 years really are what he is and he gets a one year deal for less than $10M because a defensive CFer that can’t get on base isnt worth more than that.
Rodon was guaranteed 21.5M in year 1 and 22.5M in year 2 – with an opt out after year 1.
Conforto has not played in over a year, since 2021 where he was a league average bat (per 100 OPS+), where he recovered from shoulder surgery.
Rodon received that contract coming off a 185 ERA+ (5.1 bWAR) season in 2021.
How in the world can Conforto in his right mind think he’s going to get that much guaranteed money AND an opt-out is beyond me.
RunDMC
I have to assume that they are talking about the structure of the deal – two years with an opt out after one – rather than the dollar amounts. If they are talking about the dollar amounts, I am sure that 99% of us agree with you.
Considering that his agent has built a career by convincing sows’ ears that they’re silk purses, and ultimately doing the same when negotiating with GMs/owners, it’s no surprise. See Matt Wieters’ contract with WAS as one example.
Yeah I don’t think they meant the dollar amounts. Conforto prob in the 10-15M range even though he’ll want more, but nobody will pay it.
With Boras as agent for both players, it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
And Jon Heyman is Boras’ mouth piece so take this news with a grain of salt.
Questin is whether Heyman is literally on Boras’ payroll or not. It’s really stupid obvious.
@Seamaholic, do you mean Boras actual payroll or whether Heyman is the recipient of a few fancy gifts here and there…
if the Cubs are smart they’ll sign both Yoshida and Sengai, and they’ll make a strong bid for Ohtani in ’23
I’m not sure that playing with other Japanese players would be a major motivation for Ohtani
I disagree, Ohtani would be less of a standout in a way, and that would allow him to focus on his game, always nice to be around your countrymen
Who said Ohtani does not want to be a stand out? Ohtani stands out even with Trout on his squad. Ohtani will consider the money, the chance for a ring, and the chance for fame and fun. Like every other star. Unless one of those players is a past close personal friend, I doubt that it matters. I also think that Ohtani will get a $400 million deal, and the Cubs are better splitting that money up due to injury risk and multiple needs.
if im a ball player first and a star second id be looking for every opportunity to dampen the stardom, and its fun to talk in the native tongue once in a while without feeling like an oddball.
Surrounding Ohtani with other Japanese players will not hide him. He not only didn’t show interest in playing with other Japanese players when he signed with the Angels, he specifically avoided teams that had established connections with Japanese players. He wanted to be the first. Has that changed? I doubt now it will matter either way. Most money and a tradition of winning will be important to him.
bwmiller;
Do you think Mr. Ohtani has felt like an oddball playing for the Angels the past 5 years and living in Orange County?
Did you know that while he often uses an interpreter he speaks English?
yeah, a little bit, when the only other japanese in the dugout is the interpreter, and they force him to wear that cowboy hat after all his HRs, I dont know where his loyalties lie, but loyalty to the Japanese is important, would you be loyal to playing alongside your fellows or the team that first paid you some bucks?
bwmiller;
Do you watch any Angels games?
If you did you would see Mr. Ohtani joking around with and talking to his teammates, trainers, coaches, and manager in the dugout. He’s made public comments for years stating that he likes his teammates and loves living in the Orange country area.
The man has a great life. He’s not a poor helpless immigrant wondering about in the American wilderness hoping that maybe an employer 2,000 miles away will hire 2 of this countrymen for him to work and talk with 6 months a year, and all he has to do is walk away from the relationships he’s built in the Orange county area, move to the Chicago area and spend his winters looking out his window and waiting for the snow to melt so he can go outside.
I guess that means that players like Bo Bichette wod like to be on a team of predominately English speaking players. And Alex Bregman would be more comfortable if the Astros added more Jewish players. It’s all ridiculous.
if Senga and Yoshida play up to par, and the Cubs are in a position to win in ’23, a midseason trade for Ohtani would not be out of the question, depending on how the Angels stand in the AL
bwmiller;
If Ohtani was available for a mid-season trade, there would be steep competition for him from at least 10 teams.
Exactly what do you think the Cubs would offer that would beat all other teams offers?
That is a far reach, considering neither of the two pieces in your theory are signed.
Again, Sengai is looking to play for a contender, not a rebuilding team. and Ohtani is going nowhere but dream on, cubs fans.
You’re making us Cubs fans look worse with every post.
There’s nothing with the fans other than they picked the cubs as their team. It’s just the crazy scenarios you guys think of. And, by the way, if you read my posts they are mostly wsox bashing.
Cubs should sign both. If none of them miss time due to injury, they could combine for 400Ks.
He is a risk for a contender, because of his terrible offense the last 2 years. He would be less of a risk for a team like the Cubs, might be willing to pay more, plus he can play every day. A contender might only guarantee him a 4th outfield spot.
The Cubs already have Happ and Suzuki as corner outfielders. Conforto seems like a part-time DH and backup corner outfielder. That is Ok for maybe ten million per year but not much more. He has been out for a while, so even if healthy, not sure how his bat will play at first.
Happ will probably be dealt at the Winter Meetings. For what the Cubs get out of him he can be replaced by somebody a lot cheaper. Trading Happ for something they need like a 3B would be the way to go. He’ll probably get around 12 million in arbitration and for that money the Cubs could get 2 or 3 decent relief pitchers and trade for a guy like Laureano who still has upside and the A’s don’t want. I wouldn’t get real attached to him, Unless Your like the self appointed president of his fan club that is.
I was just thinking the other day that Bellinger on a one year contract made sense for the Cubs in 2023.
Of course it does. Unfortunately, it makes sense for several teams. I mean, how high are you gonna go for a guy who can’t hit when he doesn’t know what’s coming
…er, I mean when his shoulder isn’t right.
Astros need to sign Verlander first. Then worry about the outfield. I would take a flyer on Heyward and Engel.
I disagree. Save the money for other needs such as OF, 1B, and C. Our rotation without JV is still one of the best. Valdez, Javier, McCullers, Garcia, Urquidy, trade Garcia/Urquidy and throw Hunter Brown in the rotation. Still top notch.
You’re absolutely right Jeff.
GD I forgot about Conforto. I wouldn’t be angry signing Nintendo to a 1 or 2 year deal and taking a flyer on Conforto also. Need 4 legit outfielders these days with injuries so they have to find one more guy on the cheap assuming Judge, Bader and Nintendo are slotted to start.
I feel sorry for any fan who reads that their team is interested in Michael Conforto. Good lord that’s a bottom of the barrel signing for $20+ million a year. WOW you’d have to be desperate to anchor him for years in your outfield.
Conforto is one of the best hitters available, if he returns to form.
$20+ million a year on “if he returns to form” and also having two productive years isn’t good enough for a $20+ million a year contract.
Who says he’s getting $20+M a year?
Nobody will give Conforto $20 mil/year. Probably more along the lines of $25 mil for 2 years with an opt out. Even that is rolling the dice, hoping he returns to 2019 form/health.
Or 2020 form / health, he was great then too. Frankly, 2017-20 he was very good. 2021 was a bad year, and injuries hampered him, and then missing all of last year, I’m not sure how they think they can sniff $20M per when he missed the entire season, and had a down year prior to that. I agree, 2/25 seems more realistic.
Rarely seen a solid player go through a slump quite as bad as Conforto around May 2021 or so. For a stretch he looked like he’d never swung a bat before – like if you asked someone who had only played cricket before to get into the batters box and take some hacks. Was an absolute automatic out.
Chris Davis on line 1 – would like to discuss how this can easily happen
Are you only capable of bringing up Davis when you hear about players who lost their swing? The Davis jokes got old quick.
First time I have ever done it – and in response to the above. Sorry if I offended.
Funny what happens when you go off the juice.
Jon Heyman flacking two Boras clients? Gee, look at that, another team slobbering over both of them. He must be trying to get these two put to bed so he can focus on Nimmo and Correa and Rodon.
Scott Boras success as an agent suggests he is great at multitasking. I’m certain he can discuss Cody Bellinger and Michael Conforto as they haggle over Carlos Correa’s new free agent deal with the Cubbies.
AaronSapoznik;
Boras Corporation currently has 60-plus employees and more than $3.8 billion in active MLB contracts under management.
He’s built a sports agency in Newport Beach that rivals most professional celerity reps agencies 50 miles to the north in Century City.
I think most people here think he’s a one-man show with a briefcase that double-talks billionaires that don’t know any better.
A couple of short term acquisitions make sense for the Cubs considering their top three prospects are outfielders Pete Crow-Armstrong, Brennen Davis and Kevin Alcantara. Each could be ready for prime time as soon as 2024.
Crow-Armstrong will be the Cubs next core center fielder with Davis and Alcantara positioning themselves as potential corner OF’s along with incumbent RF Seiya Suzuki. Ian Happ could join this list if he and the Cubs agree to a contract extension before he hits free agency following the upcoming season.
While it’s quite optimistic to think all 3 guys will make it, I really like PCA. Leadoff hitter with speed, a good eye and outstanding defensively. I wish he was ready now.
If the prices are right sign both. Put Bellinger in CF and rotate Conforto/Suzuki between RF and DH. If both are willing to take one year pillow deals why not?
Yes. Bellinger and Conforto might also see ample OF reps if the Cubs can’t extend LF Ian Happ this offseason. Happ will be a a prime trade asset if no deal is reached, either this winter or by next summer’s trade deadline.
Depending on who the Cubs might sign to play 1B this offseason, Matt Mervis could be getting the lions share of DH opportunities sooner rather than later in 2023. Conforto’s health following his April shoulder surgery could also factor into the equation.
Rsox & AaronSapoznik;
I understand that the Cubs are going to put a club on the field for 2023. But I also have to believe that no one in their FO actually thinks they have any realistic chance of going to the WS in 2023.
So it seems to me that they have what they think is a core of young players that will be with them in 2 years, and they want to try to add to that in 2023. They’ll have some openings other than the core people and might take on some other players on a short-term contract….and would just as soon trade them for prospects at the deadline if they’re having a good year.
The object in 2023 is to continue to develop the core players – especially pitchers.
here the cubs go again. from dumpster divin theo to dumpster diving hoyer.
They may or may not actually be interested in either of them. They could be just doing Boras a favor so they can get a few points with another of his clients, I’d guess Nimmo or Correa. Of course, the old “get Jon Heyman to tweet something about another team” trick has got to be old hat to most GM’s by now.
I doubt Boras would give his own mother a discount since remember it was bryant Boras filed a grievance under when the cubs held bryant back under the rules for a super 2 player leading to the collective barganing change on service time..
Wonder if Conforto would have to do a showcase before a team signs him. If he has a noodle for an arm post surgery I’d be hesitant to sign him to only DH.
exactly I can’t imagine any sane GM signing him for that $20+ million he is projected. I smell another bad Heyward-like contract coming. ok maybe not that bad but barely better.
Conforto and Bellinger interested in Cubs if they pay a lot more than everyone else.
Moving from Hayward to Bellinger?
Cubs know they don’t have the farm to mix with a group of high end free agents and put a contender on the field. Therefore, they’ll be out on the big names and looking for players like these two in attempt to create more farm value down the road
The Cubs actually have a pretty strong farm system, very deep with some serious breakout potential.
Of course they are. Big market team continuing to act like a small market. I know lots of teams are in on these guys but they don’t have the money or the holes that the Cubs do.
No idea what Conforto eventually signs for. According to reports, he’s turned down:
-A four or five year deal worth $100-120 million from the Mets prior to 2021
-A QO of $18.4 million after his 2021 down year
-A two year, $30 million deal from the Astros this past summer
He’s now had a full year off and been through a big injury, and his last full season was his worst since 2016. Is there any team out there dumb enough to give him the mega deal he wants?
Both players (Boras clients) have essentially the same problem. They want to be paid for production that they haven’t been anywhere near recently, but don’t want to offer the acquiring team a discount on years for taking the risk of betting on them. Some teams may be OK with that–if there’s an opt-out it’s because the player performed in year 1, but few teams are going to want to commit to paying for multiple years when what they may be buying is 2021/22 production.
They’re really setting the bar high with conforto and Bellinger
Please don’t get either.. Shoot Would have been cheaper to have kept Kyle Schwarber who’s similar to these guys
Cubs talk a lot about what they want to do but in reality it’s a smoke screen as they will spend less on a lower tier player
Don’t bet your house on that… They were top 5 spending last offseason.
Given the choice of the 2, I’d take the chance on Conforto. Even his down year offensively was leaps and bounds better than Bellinger.
No. Bellinger’s good years put Conforto to shame.
And Bellingers’s bad years put himself to shame. I’ll take the more consistent player every time
But Bellinger can help you with the glove even when he’s not hitting, while we have no idea if Comforto can even throw. And Belli is good on the basrpaths.
If Conforto can’t throw, there’s always the DH spot. Bellinger flat out sucks on offense. At this point, he’s a late inning defensive replacement.
Why would they pay all that money to Jason Hayward to sit around and watch tv and then pay mad money to Conforto and Bellinger?
Cubs like throwing money out the window
Lefty_Orioles_Fan;
In the off-season Jon Heyman or some other NE baseball reporter that gets paid based on clicks writes that a team is “interested” in a player.
From that MLBTR will blow it out to a story. Sort of like finding a buried human nose and putting a face and body around it. They’re going to pick up stories and that’s fine. But most of them have no basis in fact – and after one has been here a few years they’ll see that the majority of the trades and signings consumed in the offseason are surprises as the parties involved worked to keep the negotiations private.
By late-May / early-June we see that the major trades and signings have had little – if any – impact on team success that season. Existing team players that improve or falter is what impacts a teams season, along with any prospects that come up.
Conforto and Bellinger offer the possibility of better offensive production than Heyward.
I personally do not think the Cubs will have any interest in Bellinger. If his hitting improves, he will be too costly to retain. If his hitting does not improve, he will not help the Cubs enough. Conforto might be cheap enough that if he hits well they could flip him for a useful prospect at the trade deadline, but I think there are better ways to spend their money. Cubs want to build for the future but position themselves to have a chance in a weak division. Those goals are not mutually exclusive.
Cubs interested in caves
Bellinger and JT sign with the Cubs. Then they sign Jose Abreu and Cueto. Back to 1984.
Conforto doesn’t fit defensively for the Cubs. Houston looks like a good fit for Bellinger.
He’s terrible with the bat and a product of the sign stealing era.