Yesterday, the Astros and first baseman Jose Abreu agreed to a three-year, $58.5MM contract, but it seems a surprising club was close to Houston in the bidding for Abreu’s services. Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the Guardians made a three-year offer, but that the $60MM range was “beyond their reach.”
The Guardians are usually one of the lowest-spending clubs in the league, so the fact that they didn’t sign a costly free agent isn’t exactly shocking. However, it could perhaps be an indication that they have a greater willingness to spend this offseason than usual. The largest free agent contract in the history of the franchise is the $60MM over three years given to Edwin Encarnacion prior to the 2017 season, coincidentally very similar to the deal Abreu just signed. The Guardians did give José Ramírez $129MM over seven years, though that was an extension and not a free agent deal.
Though many fans will remain skeptical of “at least we tried” reports of teams just missing on free agents, there are reasons to think the Guards might actually have some money to work with this winter. The club ran out a roster full of rookies and other young players in 2022, and it worked tremendously. They went 92-70 and finished atop the American League Central despite a very modest payroll. Roster Resource currently pegs their 2023 spending around $72MM, with no individual player set to earn more than the $14MM Ramírez will get. $9MM of that number is the projected arbitration salary of shortstop Amed Rosario, a name frequently mentioned in trade rumors. That $72MM figure is already a slight upgrade over last year’s Opening Day figure of $68MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but they got as high as $135MM in 2018.
Now that the club is a few years removed from the lost revenues of the pandemic and just got a boost from a surprise postseason run, it’s possible that they are willing to push spending back up near their pre-pandemic levels. It would also make sense from an on-field perspective to build around their bevy of young and talented players while they are still paid at arbitration or pre-arb levels.
If there is some money to be spent, the first base/designated hitter part of the roster is a sensible place to put it. The club has Josh Naylor penciled in as their first baseman but Franmil Reyes flamed out as the designated hitter in 2022 and eventually got put on waivers, going to the Cubs. There would have been an opening for Abreu to step in and split the first base and designated hitter duties with Naylor. It also would make sense to add some extra thump to a lineup that succeeded in 2022 largely by making contact and avoiding strikeouts. The club hit 127 home runs this year, which was 29th in the majors, ahead of only the Tigers. Abreu’s power actually took a step back in 2022, but he still hit 15 home runs and has frequently been a 30-homer bat in the past.
If the Guardians are still willing to pursue this market, there are other options available to them. There are some part-time or role players available such as Trey Mancini or Yuli Gurriel, but the top option is Josh Bell. On MLBTR’s Top 50, he was projected for a $64MM contract over four years. That guarantee is beyond what Abreu got, but at a lower average annual value of $16MM. Since Bell is only 30 years old compared to Abreu’s 36, he will likely require a lengthier commitment, but that lower salary might better suit the Cleveland checkbook. Like Abreu, he would add some thump to the lineup, having hit 17 home runs last year and getting as high as 37 in previous seasons. He also isn’t likely to throw off the club’s low-strikeout style either, as he’s never posted a rate above 19.2% outside of the shortened 2020 season. For context, this year’s league average rate was 22.4% and the Guardians struck out at a collective 18.2% clip.
The Guardians will surely have competition in a pursuit of Bell or any other first basemen they decide to go after. The Padres, Cubs and Marlins were all reported to have been interested in Abreu and they will likely start thinking about the next options on their lists. One other team on that list is the Red Sox, as Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that Abreu was their top free agent target and they met with him as soon as free agency began.
The Red Sox already have something of a cluttered mix of players for their first base and designated hitter spots. Youngsters Triston Casas and Bobby Dalbec are on the 40-man roster along with veteran Eric Hosmer, picked up in a deadline deal with the Padres last year. However, there’s no real reason for them to be especially committed to Hosmer, as the Padres agreed to pay down all of his remaining contract except for the league minimum. Since joining the Padres prior to 2018, he’s been essentially a replacement level player, producing a wRC+ of 100 and 0.3 fWAR. As for Dalbec, he showed some potential in 2020 and 2021 but struggled greatly in 2022, hitting just .215/.283/.369 for a wRC+ of 80 while striking out in 33.4% of his plate appearances.
We can’t know for sure what subsequent moves the Red Sox would have made if they had signed Abreu, but it seems possible they could have looked to trade Hosmer or simply released him if he used his no-trade clause to block a deal. Dalbec could have also found himself on the trading block but he also has options and could have been retained as minor league depth in case Casas, who has just 27 MLB games under his belt, struggled in 2023. He hit five homers in that short sample and walked a bunch but didn’t hit for much average, leading to a lopsided batting line of .197/.358/.408.
The first base market has been quite robust in the early days of the offseason, as Anthony Rizzo already re-signed with the Yankees, the Pirates traded for Ji-Man Choi and Carlos Santana, followed by Abreu signing with the Astros. With several teams seemingly still interested in upgrading their rosters at first, the remaining free agents might see their phones lighting up very soon.
At the news conference today Abreu also mentioned the White Sox made an offer. And reports are the Red Sox had also targeted him high in their list.
Bloom probably thought he had the best offer @ 3/15
Unless the plan was for Abreu to DH and to release Hosmer adding Abreu makes no sense for Boston. The Sox offensively have clear needs in the OF, SS, and C, a 4th First Baseman even one as good as Abreu seems redundant
They should be able to trade Hosmer as he’s now making league minimum with the Padres paying his salary. Abreu could take the bulk of DHing and backing Casas at 1B.
He has a no trade.
Abreu was also rumored to have turned down the Guardians because Cleveland changed the name from Indians to Guardians.
Give it up already
Guess it wasn’t enough…way to go Houston
Im sure he chose houston because he saw a better chance of getting a ring.
They also probably offered at least 10M more
Yeah, it’s almost always about the money. Not saying they don’t care about winning; however, it’s money first, winning second. With some rare exceptions, of course.
Wait, Cleveland really was the runner up for a big name FA for once? OIC is going to flip his lid!
When one works in the front office of the Guardians, it’s not fake news.
😉
Boston need Mancini! Then traded Dalbec,Verdugo and one low prospect for Murphy…. And Lugo/ Bellinger
I don’t think Oakland would have much interest in Verdugo unless they believe they could flip him for a haul.
That would not come close to what the A’s would want for Murphy. And they certainly don’t want Verdugo’s salary.
1. We dont need Manciini!
2. Catching is fine so no need to weaken the OF worse than it is.
3. Lugo: I agree
4. Bellinger: We dont need him. Plenty of other options out there.
How is catching fine? Who do they have that is as good as Vasquez? Just asking.
@redsox for life
I pictured a cave man trying to talk while reading your comment.
Why
Low prospect
Grammar.
To be clear, $60 million is not beyond the reach of any Major League Baseball team.
I feel like JD Martinez is a better fit, they need a right handed bat with some type of slugging, even if it is doubles not HRs.
They also need Josh Naylor not to be starting against LHP.
Which means you really need a guy who can cover 1B.
That’s what their system is lacking too. Owen Miller shouldn’t be playing 1B for a contender.
@CyBieber
But that doesn’t require spending $60m on anyone. A guy who can hit LHP, who has a little versatility, and can spell Naylor 28% of the time shouldn’t cost an arm and a leg (or two).
Cleveland just missed out on a FA. Where have I heard that before? Not even funny anymore, just lame.
Not lame, SMART. Wish CLE fan could tell the difference, but I’ve given up on that.
Avory-
I wish so-called fans of the Guardians with your attitude would wake up.
As we’ve seen from the acquisition costs for Urshela, Farmer, Newman, etc., one year rentals don’t net that much, especially for teams seeking payroll relief. With that in mind, I’d expect the Cardinals to pursue Amed Rosario, perhaps for a Freddy Pacheco or Jake Walsh?
Rosario is way more valuable than those players though, rental or not.
Cleveland does not have to trade Rosario. They can go for a WS this year and let him walk after. Their system is loaded now and they really have no need to deal guys for more prospects right now. Their window just opened last season.
They do have a couple SS options in the pipeline also. Short of an overpay or a package with Rosario + prospects—-I don’t really see that.
Devlsh;
Rosario is the Guardians best hitter against LH pitchers. They only have 3 RH hitters in their lineup.
They’re not trading Rosario for any teams garbage.
Keeping guys like Rosario and letting them walk in fa, doesn’t seem like Cleveland’s style. But, I get where you’re coming from
Hello, Newman;
I read 6 weeks ago that they’re quietly trying to sign Rosario to an extension.
@Samuel @Hello, Newman
That’s not going to happen. Cleveland very well knows Rosario’s limited value, particularly in relationship to what they have. You’re correct, though, that CLE lacks punch against LHP, which mitigates Rosario leaving this year. CLE has had no problem letting players walk. They did with Brantley, Thome, and Ramirez. It’s all dependent on circumstances, and right now CLE can use Amed in a contending season. Overwhelmed, sure, they’ll deal him because they have alternatives (slide Gimenez to his rightful position, slot Freeman and/or Arias at 2B until Rocchio is ready) but there is no urgency.
It’s not an offer when you know it’s not competitive and the target has no intention of accepting it. It’s cynical public relations as suggested in the article.
If the choices were Houston or Cleveland, I would have just retired. Both cities are completely uninhabitable
Dude Cleveland is a great city
7 million people in greater Houston area and fastest growing major city. We sure don’t want you here. Stay in your lovely high taxed crime ridden locale.
Numbers mean nothing. 1.39 billion people live in India and it’s a slum. Houston West.
Humidity makes Houston uninhabitable a large number of days per year, unless you like walking around in a shirt wet with sweat. Climate matters. Kinda key to a comfortable life.
@utah cornelius
If the Gulf Coast had a great climate, a helluva lot more people would live there. It doesn’t.
I really don’t understand why Boston is worrying about 1st when it is one of few positions that they don’t need to address. At best you have the 2 kids supported by a good vet player, at worst it’s an issue that won’t need addressing until the deadline.
I am finding Boston’s offseason plans confusing and frustrating so far.
They really do need to add somebody like Abreu to that lineup. I’d hate to see them waste that pitching by not addressing the lack of offense that’s kind of been there Achilles heel for a few seasons now.
In before all the “haha who would want to live in Cleveland xDxD” comments
Your already to late, sliderwithcheeze beat you to it!
I’d be very surprised if CLE didn’t add to payroll. Before 2021, they averaged a payroll of about 100M in the Tito era. They usually land somewhere around 75-80% of league average as well, which is likely to be about 150M this year. The last two years have been significant outliers. Yes, they are cheap, but they aren’t usually 40% of league average cheap.
They could get to 90-110M pretty easily imo. If they were willing to give Abreu like 15M a year, they can certainly turn around and do the same for Bell
@ Pezzicle
I don’t know why the author of this article cited Josh Bell as a fallback for Cleveland. In no way is he a fallback…he lacks Abreu’s consistency, but more importantly, he hits left handed. That is NOT what CLE is looking for.
Pretty sure Bell is a switch hitter. At least he is listed as one on bref.
Avory-
Follow baseball much? Bell is a switch hitter.
Yep, messed up on that one, perhaps because I had checked previously and he’s measurably worse career-wise vs. LHP. But yes, he would still help in that regard. Appreciate the correction.
Astros and Guardians targeting the same guys, huh?! I think it was a lot of money personally but this does give me more confidence.
Cleveland has to get another bat somewhere. It could just be that guy is a prospect on his way up though.
1B is an option. Another option would be to play Kwan in CF and move Myles Straw. They really like Straw and he has a great glove but Kwan could & has played there. Straw also provided no offense. The Guards have prospects at that slot too.
C is a defense first position always (as it should be) in Cleveland. Not sold Bo is ready just yet but if he proves he can handle the staff—he’d provide a nice upgrade from Hedges. Valera could end up being that OF upgrade that they need also.
A power hitter and a solid #4 SP and they could conceivably call it an offseason.
BStrowman;
The problem with what you’re proposing is that it would leave the Guardians with 3 RH bats in the line-up most days – Rameriz, Rosario and Gonzalez (he will not play full-time) are it….and there are no RH hitters to fill in if one or more of them are injured.
Cleveland overloaded with LH hitters years ago when Shapiro was there. Before each series teams were calling up LH pitchers from AAA to face them, that more often then not shut them down.
They do need a RH bat with some power that can pay 1B when they pull Naylor against LH pitchers. It’s why they looked at Abreu. Past their prime guys such as JD Martinez and Mancini will not do. Most likely they’ll made an in-season trade for a strong RH bat from a team that’s having a bad year – unless someone becomes available in trade this off-season. Sure they’re asking around.
Good points.
Straw’s bat is a wet noodle so I didn’t believe that Valera’s addition would really make much of a difference for imbalance on that front.
I have to ask then is Valera a trade chip? Kwan isn’t going anywhere. Unless you decide that you want to move on from Naylor—he does become a tough fit
BStrowman;
Kwan is not remotely the CF that Straw is. Nor are Benson and Brennan that can also play CF (and along with Valera hit LH).
Straw is sort of like SS Jorge Mateo of the Orioles – his defense is so good that it’s hard to move him because he means so much to the pitching staff (and both players run the bases well and steal bases). In both men’s cases the hope for their FO’s is that they lay off pitches out of the zone (primarily breaking balls down and away), get some more walks, and get their BA’s up to .250-.265 along with the corresponding OBP as the shift partially goes away.
Keep in mind that Francona is forever moving guys around for and in each game. And as for Straw – along with J-Ram, Rosario, Naylor, and Bieber is one of their team leaders….something Francona depends on as there is only so much a manager and his coaches can do.
I agree that they badly need a strong RH bat….but may not be able to find one. An option is to get Tyler Freeman more PA’s. He bats RH and looks like he can hit as he gets more exposure to ML pitching. Either play him at 1B or play him at 3B and have J-Ram play some 1B.
I also agree with you about Owen Miller. He got a lot of SF’s, but whereas Freeman is 23 and Arias is 22, Miller is 26….he’s coming
off like a possible Casey Blake at best.
@samuel
Let’s not get silly. Jose Ramirez is not going to play first base. Short of stature and short arms (the source of his ability to cover the inside fastball). Freeman is potentially in waiting at 2B if Rosario is moved, but other than that, he’s a trade candidate himself.
I agree that a right hand bat is needed to pair with Naylor, but it needn’t be anyone of note, merely someone like Luplow or Raburn, or Guyer who can hit LHP and be a little versatile. Jordan Luplow in his “prime” would have been perfect.
I very much agree with you that moving Kwan to CF would be a huge mistake. You don’t take an elite LF and make him an average CF. Brennan will get a shot out there if Straw can’t scale .200 the way he scales walls.
Good points from both of you.
But I didn’t see either one of you mention using Valera. So it seems as though he should probably be a trade chip. Cleveland is in a great spot to package a few prospects.
Valera has some tantalizing tools, but observers are mixed on his rigid swing path and his ability to get to heat up in the zone. If CLE moves him, it’s a sure indication they’re not convinced themselves. It’s not like CLE couldn’t use some effortless power.
The Guardians offered a 3 year $1 million dollar contract and then remembered this isn’t the NHL
Jealous a bit that the small market Guardians are in much better shape than the mighty Red Sox.
Not in the least. I will always respect Terry Francona for what he did in Boston and will always believe he got a raw deal there at the end
He had his son and son in law in Iraq and Afghanistan and supposed Beckett, Lester, and Lackey could not act like men. I will never forgive the three of them for acting like immature men
They don’t have Bloom as their GM or whatever his title is.
WEEI is saying the Red Sox had interest in Abreu but once again Bloom was a day late and a dollar short. Were they going to DH him or put him at first base and trade Hosmer? I cannot figure that one out.
@AL34 As a good GM once said, In baseball, if you don’t knowingly overpay for a FA to the point where it causes you physical discomfort, you’re probably never winning anything important.
As a good GM’s wife once said: “will you get home before you screw up the team any further”…
Clever justification for wasting resources.
They have no financial commitment to Hosmer so they could really just let him go at any point.
@BStrowman Just the minimum, but they do have rights to him for 3 more seasons and he’s not completely useless on a 26-man roster. There are worse players on rosters, and as long as they don’t trying playing him every day or ever let him face LHP, he mght be better than their options for 26th man.
Either that or deal him for organizational filler or an extreme lottery ticket. No point in cutting him this winter afaict.
And i think that’s what makes it tough to gauge what to do with Hosmer. At 3 years and $1.5 million he might be the biggest bargain in Baseball. He has always hit in Fenway and i don’t think we saw enough of him last season to properly judge him yet.
AL34;
Do you and your friends wake up in he middle of the night and have Bloom attacks?
Heavens, if you go to Fenway and you get a hot dog that’s not fully cooked it’s Bloom’s fault. You have that mans job description so out of whack that anything that’s not perfect in your little world somehow is Chaim Bloom’s fault.
Get a life, man.
Listen Samuel while you were squeezing pimples on your face I was fighting in Iraq and was wounded there. I fought for this country and have a right to say what I want to about anything in this case Bloom sho I do not think is doing a good job. If he is doing it on his own or he is being directed by Henry to do this.
Listen Samuel while you were squeezing pimples on your face..”
AL34;
Didn’t read past that. I’m at least 30 years older then you, and have the mental and physical scars to prove it.
Your posts come off like a spoiled kid….with about as much understanding of the situation you’re addressing.
Gads, most of you Red Sox “fans” are as bad as Yankee fans. As one poster put it: “They know nothing about baseball”.
Mute.
The Red Sox lost me when it became clear they’re just Yankee wannabes. That makes them as bad as the genuine article, if not worse.
Listen you little snot, I guarantee I am a lot older than you and went to war at 50?called back with the Army Reserve. I have been a Red Sox fan since the 1970s and have seen bad GMs and bad ownership. My opinion is that Chaim Bloom is a shakey Baseball Operations Guy. A lot of bad moves and trades. Letting Schwarber walk, not getting a solid relief pitcher, picking up JBJ and trading Renfro, trading Velasquez to a team we were playing that night. This is not Tampa Bay where they do not draw fans. Respect people’s opinions instead of being an arrogant punk! You do not control this board.
Grow up both of you. Act your age and stop the ridiculous name calling. It makes you both look bad.
I think they this more of a replace/demote Dalbek move.
The Guardians didn’t ‘miss out on Abreu’ except in accomplishing two things: 1) appearing to be active in FA, which every team wants, and 2) making an offer low enough that it would have been a great deal for them—but in reality Abreu was never signing w them.
The Guardians are nowhere close to paying 20m a year for a 3-win 1Bman, fcol, when they have a 2+-win 1Bman in Naylor, and never mind it’s the second easiest position on the diamond to fill.
Using fangraphs’ projections, Abreu is valued at only 0.2 WAR more than Naylor for 2023. Even make it a full win, and why would you add close to 20m to your miniscule payroll for a gain of 1 WAR? The Guardians would have probably been more interested in Abreu as a DH so they wouldn’t have to watch Franmil Reyes try to hit, but he was never going for that.
Franmil Reyes was released and tried to hit for the Cubs the last 2 months of the 2022 season. The Cubs released him this offseason.
And even that’s not far enough away from Cleveland!
You’re correct, and I failed in trying to be funny, as if being let go wasn’t protection enough against his bat.
Word is Guards offered the man from Cienfuegos (100 fires) 54m. Also anyone comparing Abreu to Naylor should check the back of Abreu’s baseball card. I don’t know if there is anyone in the league that has played more games over the last nine seasons with that level of production.
Anyone not understanding the meaning of comparisons, and what player projections are shouldn’t post on baseball websites. Or any websites, for that matter.
Josh Naylor had a 140 OPS+ against RHP…that’s the long side of a great platoon if you can find a decent bat against LHP the other 28% of the time.
Cleveland dodged a bullet if they really made a run at Abreu. It would have been a waste of money. Use those funds to extend Gimenez.
Red Sox fans should be glad not to see shrunken monkey head beard at first base
Red Sox are in trouble. Can Henry be dictating these moves to Bloom. If not he is doing terrible job
Bloom wanting to sign a 4th 1B seems like a very Bloom move
Can you imagine a 7, 8, 9 of Hosmer, Gallo, and Bellinger?
The Indians will be glad they didnt commit 3 years to Abreu. Losing power isn’t a good feature for an aging 1b.
The Guardians. Get over it…the Indians don’t exist anymore. The Guardians on the other hand just won a division title and went to the playoffs.
Here’s to you, Eric Hosmer! It’s the life when one business will pay you millions to work for ANOTHER business, and not theirs.
I questioned the guys heart because how quickly he went in the DL and stayed on it until October. He reminds me of David Justice even he played for Oakland and the Yankees were paying his salary. Although David Justice was a better player than Hosmer is.