The Nationals announced Tuesday afternoon they’ve signed infielder Jeimer Candelario to a one-year deal. He’ll reportedly receive a $5MM base salary, and the deal also contains an additional $1MM in possible incentives.
Candelario, 29, is a buy-low move for the Nationals that they surely hope will have some upside for them. The switch-hitter seemed to break out over 2020 and 2021 as he hit 23 home runs in that stretch and produced a batting line of .278/.356/.458. That production was 25% better than league average, as evidenced by his 125 wRC+. Advanced defensive metrics disagreed slightly on how to value his glovework, but it was generally viewed as in the vicinity of league average. FanGraphs valued him as being worth 1.9 wins above replacement in the shortened 2020 season and 3.9 in 2021. The combined 5.8 fWAR over those two seasons was good enough for him to rank third in all of baseball among third basemen, trailing only José Ramírez and Manny Machado.
Unfortunately, just about every member of the Tigers endured a nightmare season in 2022, and Candelario was not spared. He produced a batting line of just .217/.272/.361 for a wRC+ of 80. His batting average on balls in play, which was .342 over the previous two seasons, dropped to .257. That means luck could have played a factor but probably doesn’t explain everything, as his hard contract rate and average exit velocity both went in the wrong direction while he hit fewer line drives.
The Tigers could have retained Candelario for one more season via arbitration, with a $7MM salary projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. However, they ultimately decided they’d prefer not to put that kind of money down on the table to bet on a bounceback and opted to non-tender him instead.
Candelario has been a free agent for just over a week but has already found his next employer. The Nationals have been leaning hard into rebuild mode over the past few seasons, trading away players like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Juan Soto, just to name a few. That’s left them with a roster primarily consisting of unproven youngsters who are still looking to establish themselves at the big league level. There are many areas of the squad where it makes sense to supplement those players with fliers on veterans and third base is certainly one of them.
Not so long ago, it was thought that the Nats had their future third baseman in Carter Kieboom, who they selected 28th overall in 2016. He produced impressive batting lines as he moved up the minor league ladder and was ranked among the top 100 prospects in the sport by Baseball America in 2019 and 2020, getting as high as #15 in that latter season. Unfortunately, he didn’t immediately acclimate to the big leagues, hitting .197/.304/.285 for a wRC+ of 63 in 414 plate appearances over the 2019-2021 stretch. In March of 2022, he was diagnosed with a forearm strain and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery in May, leading to him missing the season entirely.
With Kieboom out this year, the Nats used various different players at the hot corner, one of which was veteran Ildemaro Vargas. The 31-year-old was selected to the roster in August and played well down the stretch, getting positive grades from all advanced defensive metrics and hitting .263/.299/.392 for a wRC+ of 92. The Nats were pleased enough to avoid arbitration with him, giving him a salary of $975K.
Vargas and now Candelario give the club some extra veteran insurance on the infield. If Kieboom surges ahead and grabs hold of the job, it shouldn’t be a problem. Vargas can play all over the diamond and Candelario has also spent time at first base in his career, meaning there would still be plenty of space for all of them in the lineup. With Luke Voit having been non-tendered, the first base/designated hitter mix is fairly wide open. Joey Meneses had an incredible breakout as a 30-year-old rookie in 2022 and will likely get a shot to see how much of that he can sustain going forward. But even if all of Kieboom, Candelario, Vargas and Meneses happen to be healthy and playing well at the same time, it should be possible to have two of them at the corners and one at designated hitter, with Vargas playing a super utility role, occasionally stepping in for that trio, as well as shortstop CJ Abrams and second baseman Luis Garcia.
The Nats have finished last in the National East in each of the past two seasons, winning 65 games in 2021 and just 55 in 2022. Their work in rebuilding their farm system is still in its early stages, meaning expectations will be low for 2023. Candelario has proven himself capable of being a valuable major leaguer, but is available due to his slump in 2022. If he is able to turns things around next year, he’ll give a boost to the team and turn himself into a valuable trade chip at the deadline, without really standing in the way of any of the club’s young players.
Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press was first to report Candelario and the Nationals had agreed to a one-year contract. Mike Rodriguez was first to report the financial terms.
Image Courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Very not surprising
Remember when he was a can’t-miss superstar in the offing for the Cubs?
Hardly a superstar.. but hes approaching 10 WAR pre 30… which is a good outcome for a top prospect… when theyre littered with complete busts..
Not counting his cup of coffee in 2016, he has produced a 7.4 bWAR in 6 seasons. 2.2 bWAR was average per season for MLB position players from 2017-2022. Not average starter. Average overall.
Candelario is a below average MLB player so far in his career.
An underwhelming signing for the Nationals. Sad to say, but I really thought he would end up with the Angels.
Glad to see someone else sees this dude as underwhelming. Lightning in a bucket?
No one thought he was a can’t miss superstar, he actually has out performed his expectations and turned into a solid regular for the majority of his career.
Solid move by the Nationals. Not a guy that’s going to move the needle but a good bounce back candidate with trade value.
You mean one of those superstars that wasn’t ranked by either BP or BA?
Or do you mean one of those superstars that had a .490 OPS for the Cubs?
He didn’t really outperform.
He was graded as a 50 FV prospect. Which is the grade of a major league starter. Candelario has been and will be again, a major league starter.
I’d say he’s been the perfect example of prospect evaluators getting it right. He was never considered to be a 60 FV + guy. Those guys are your projected all stars.
Speaking of which, has anyone else noticed ‘prospect creep’ at mlb dot com?
Compared with other sites their evals are routinely 5 FV higher, turning fringy backups into promising 40-man roster candidates, and solid prospects into likely future all-stars.
I don’t read mlb.com’s rankings.
Pretty garbage. Fangraphs is infinitely better
Dudes knee pamper is showing..and I know less than stats about him. Congrats on the pick-up!
Maikel Franco 2.0
The Candy Man
The real Candyman was John Candeleria who can’t be compared to this guy
Candy won 161 games, pitched a no hitter and once won 20 games with the lowest ERA in the NL
This player resembles Michael Cavis
The true Candy Man can take a rainbow, wrap it in a sigh, soak it in the sun and make a groovy lemon pie.
This player resembles Michael Cavis
========================
I remember when Chavis hit a HR for PT after the RS traded him. The Bloom haters stayed up nights carrying on about how good he was.
This guys name always makes me think of a John Candelaria. You’re teaching the younger fans about the real Candyman with your assessment. Nice
Only the candyman can
Candy Maldonado was the true Candyman!!
He’s better than that stuff
say my name 3x in the mirror…i dare you 😛
Jockstrap. Joxstrap. Jogstap
sniff! sniff!
Not a bad signing for a team like the Nats. He has his flaws, to be sure, but could be a decent hitter if he turns things around by laying off the offspeed pitches out of the zone.
Batters don’t change their swings after that many years
Tell that to Daniel Murphy
Or JD Martinez.
Or Justin Turner
Or Jose Bautista
The hot stove is hot as far as free agent signings go. I think the winter meetings next week will have a lot of action.
Legit good in 20-21 surprised me… Worth checking out.. only 29.
Tigers and Harris wanted to argue over $2MM. Now they have a hole to fill in the line up. They looked only at last year, and let go what had been the 3rd best 3B, the previous year. Still waiting on Harris to do something, anything, to improve the team.
Third base has got to be the toughest position to find quality players, with the exception of pitching. I can only think of two third basemen in the Hof: Honus Wagner and then, many years later Mike Schmidt. Both very deserving. Even if Candelario has some work to do with his hitting, his ranking as the third best third baseman in the game right now makes him a valuable acquisition for any team, let alone one that’s rebuilding.
Brooks Robinson, Wade Boggs, George Kell, Eddie Mathews & George Brett just off the top of my head.
What? Honus was a SS.
There’s Brett, Boggs, Jones, Eddie Matthews, Brooks, Santo, Molitor, and Rolen, Beltre, and Nettles will all get in one way or another.
Edgar, if you’re feeling generous. John McGraw, Home Run Baker (who didn’t hit a lot of HR)…
He led the league in doubles that year. What happened was Scott Coolbaugh got a hold of him and screwed him up. I’d say he’s a great bounce back candidate and this was a great buy for the Nats.
Also, a good move for the Tigers to move on.
We wish him nothing but the best.
Low risk medium reward candidate for them, can be shipped off at the deadline if he produces
Hope he does well. Always showed potential and was very solid 20-21 but completely fell off offensively and defensively in 22. Wish the candy man the best of luck.
Dude led the league in doubles just a year ago. Low risk move on their part as he could turn some heads in a new environment.
I’m going to miss Candy, and hope the best for him. Detroit cannot keep spinning their wheels on a lot of these so-so players. I understand Scott Harris’ tough decisions this off-season
Agreed. Interested to see what Harris will do about their glaring hole at 3B. Kreidler is not the answer.
Yeah, imo kriedler is just too early to tell. Kody Clemens is one I can’t figure out. He has never really done much of anything, even in the minors. I like the kid and all, but come on.
Colton Welker?
caught back on with SF on a minors deal
I’ve gotten to see a lot of Kriedler in Toledo. I think he will have a career. Just not sure he is starter material. Maybe a platoon guy. If he is the guy next year, his glove would have some value.
I have a feeling Candelario is going to be another James McCann—a player the Tigers cut too soon.
Assuming he’s not too expensive he’s a fine buy low piece. No reason he can’t get back to 2020/2021 form.
Jd, your are right he’s never really came back to himself.
Well, he’ll be 29. For non-stars who only had a couple of good seasons, that’s reason enough.
Peak isn’t 26-27 at random. Everything is going for most players except the brain.
Underwhelming.
Guess it’s officially the end on Kieboom?
Candys gonna get the reps at 3B, and I think Carters out of options
I believe Kieboom still has an option year remaining. But even on the rebuilding Nats 2023 is probably his last chance.
Jeimer is a fantastic bounce back candidate. I’m a fan of a person that stacks up the doubles.
Thought he’d be a low cost pickup for the Phillies, let Long work with him and he could talk with Nick C about how bad Comerica is for hitters
As a Tiger fan, I was soooo glad to see classless Nicky’s team go down in the World Series. Nothing against the rest of them, I just dislike his arrogance. Perhaps he would’ve like Comerica Park better if he could run; he was the slowest age 21-22 athlete I could image.
And that’s part of what’s wrong with the Tigers that Scott Harris will fix – Comerica Park is an advantage to the right kind of player who prioritizes speed, defense, and line-drive power. Why the Tigers haven’t focused on that kind of player surprises me.
I think now that Avila is gone they will start to prioritize those type of rangy outfielders that barrel the ball.
Castellanos isn’t an Outfielder by trade, he was a terrible defensive 3B that was forced to the Outfield because the Tigers had Miguel Cabrera at 1B and Victor Martinez at DH. Harris has his work cut out for him trying to get the Tigers back on track
You mean like a guy that can hit .280 and lead the league in doubles? Oh, too late. Nationals just signed him for $1MM less than the Tigers could have kept him for. Greene, Baddoo, Reyes (already cut), Meadows, Baez all added speed to the lineup. Greene, Baez, Reyes, Barnhart, Schoop all play above average D. They had been prioritizing it, under Avila. Now they are 30th in HRs.
#BRINGbackfreebies #saveworldhunger
I wish him luck with the Nationals, but I’m also glad that Detroit non-tendered him.
Let’s take a guess at the guarantee. He’s signing early. So, I’ll say $6 million.
I understand your reasoning, but I can’t believe anyone would offer him that much. I’ll guess 4.5 million.
This strikes me as a “Brewers give up a prospect for him in July when they really should’ve just signed him in the offseason” type of deal.
Yup just what I was thinking. Brewers gotta either commit to Urias at third and quit thinking he can play second too. Otherwise move on from him. I personally want Brian Anderson at third and move on from Urias.
I would imagine DET gladly taking Urias
Brian Anderson is a great candidate to put up a good season. That would be a solid pickup for Milwaukee. A much better organization than Miami.
If so they should use Urias & maybe a pitcher like Lauer to acquire a 1B.
Nationals just increased their franchise value by AT LEAST $100 million with this move.
Decent buy low/possible trade chip later for the Nats
Maybe the Nats are trying to assemble an All Low-wRC+ team. When you always buy low, you stay low.
Yes.. buying low.. early in a rebuild.. They currently had to rebuild after the WS because they werent buying low.. back then (Now have the Strasburg and Corbin albatrosses) and the farm system crumbled…
Nats are aiming for 24-25….
Meh
Contract predictions contest would be cool. You’d get points for years, value, AAV.
Candelario offers quite some upside and should rebound (at least if you look at his recent BABIP). This should be something between a solid signing and a steal for the Nationals. But with $ 5m plus incentives Candelario gets a decent payday after a horrible campaign.
The Tigers did not want to tender him for $ 7m and I am not sure if this was a good decision. Detroit has some interesting 3B prospects on the rise (especially C. Keith) and would have been served well with a solid placeholder at 3B for next year – similar to Schoop at 2B. We will see if Harris’ idea for 3B works out and outperforms Candelario.
Gruß,
BSHH
If Harris has an idea for 3B, I wish he would share it.
He might have showed it already – by claiming Ibanez, promoting Lipcius and keeping Kreidler. Not really enticing options for next year, but the bar for improvement at 3B is rather low…
Gruß,
BSHH
Harris didn’t want to pay for a 1 yr placeholder. Keith is coming but not close enough yet. Kriedler gets a shot and there’s probably a vet signing that has some OBP skills that can play both corners as a stopgap if Kriedler isn’t ready
Given Harris’ background with the Cubs, I could see him taking David Bote’s contract off of their hands at 50 cents on the dollar. Bote isn’t good but he has some position flexibility and is currently outrighted off of the 40 man roster as the Cubs had too many prospects to protect. So Detroit wouldn’t have to add him until Opening Day.
David Bote’s contract was interesting. I actually like the idea of signing and extending younger players past/into fa. But, I can’t imagine a similar situation not happening with some of the players the Brave’s recently extended
I hope Tigers look for more obp help this off-season.
At $5M this is an overpay by the Nationals. While Candelario had 2 good years in 2020 and 2021 his 2022 season is representative of how he performed in 2018 and 2019 (where he spent a majority of the season at Toledo) and really what he is as a player. He likely hit his ceiling in 2021 and I doubt we’ll see him reach that level again.
Thank you….at least somebody, leaving out the author of this piece, realizes that the Nats are paying for what he did in seasons past…….2022 results were .217 with almost a strikeout a game……..$5 million for that paltry production is what’s wrong with the game today……..Nice spin Darragh……..making a pumpkin into Cinderella’s carriage
Its a slow baseball news day when Candelario is the top story.
Its actually more impactful than most offseason days…. Where there is nothing…
Nice! Candelario looks like he’s ready to breakout and be the MVP in 2023.
It’s amazing he got paid $5M after how badly he played last season. He stunk the joint up almost every day.
Baez was just as bad but will still get paid. That Candelario signed so quickly shows how in demand he was.
Baez had a much better season than Candelario (still disappointing though).
I felt badly for the guy……then I realized…..dang….that’s 5 million dollars
That’s a lot of.money
Dang…that is a lot.of.money…
He ought.to be.feeling sorry.for.me…..
That’s a lot of.money…..
Things are just way out of.hand
……
You’d rather have the owners keep all the money themselves? I don’t think Candelario is worth five million, but there is a chance that he’ll have a rebound year.
I’d rather I didn’t have to pay that.much to go to a game or subscribe to cable…..
Hotdogs should.not.cost $7……
It really should cost that much but there are so many rich folks with so much disposable income………
Should not cost so much.
Our grandparents would be ashamed…..