December 21: The Cubs have officially announced the signing. Robert Murray of FanSided provides a detailed breakdown of Swanson’s salaries. He will get a $7MM signing bonus and a $13MM salary in 2023, followed by $25MM in 2024. He will then get a bump to $27MM for three straight years, followed by $26MM in 2028 and $25MM in 2029.
December 17: The Cubs have landed one of the offseason’s biggest free agents, as the team has agreed to a deal with shortstop Dansby Swanson. NBC Sports Chicago’s David Kaplan (via Twitter) was first to report that the two sides were “very close” to finalizing a deal, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel tweeted later that the agreement had been reached. The contract is a seven-year, $177MM deal that includes a full no-trade clause, according to Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports (Twitter link). Swanson is represented by Excel Sports Management.
It is the second-biggest free agent deal in Cubs history, second only to Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184MM pact from the 2015-16 offseason. After the Cubs had spent the last couple of seasons cutting payroll and largely moving into rebuild mode, it is safe to say that the franchise is firmly planning to compete again, given the signings of Swanson, Jameson Taillon, and Cody Bellinger this offseason, as well as the Seiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman deals last winter.
Rumors have swirled since the summer that the Cubs were planning to sign one of the “big four” shortstops of the 2022-23 offseason — Swanson, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, or Xander Bogaerts. Some reports even suggested that Chicago could sign two of the shortstops, with an eye towards moving one player to another position (a la the Rangers inking both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien last winter). Initial reports indicated that Correa and Bogaerts were the Cubs’ top options of the group, but during the Winter Meetings, Swanson began to emerge as “perhaps their most realistic target at shortstop,” in the words of The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.
As it turned out, all of the big four shortstops ended up switching teams, with Swanson the last one to land his next contract. Turner signed with the Phillies, Bogaerts with the Padres, Correa with the Giants, and now Swanson will head to Wrigleyville to join the third different organization of his pro career. Drafted first overall by the Diamondbacks in 2015, Swanson’s Arizona was limited to 22 A-ball games, as he was dealt to the Braves that offseason as part of a blockbuster five-player swap.
The trade became infamous for Arizona fans, as Shelby Miller (the primary piece headed to the D’Backs) immediately struggled with his new team, while Georgia-born Swanson blossomed with his hometown Braves. Success wasn’t immediate for Swanson, who hit only .243/.314/.369 over his first 1229 Major League plate appearances from 2016-18. However, he gradually became more productive at the plate, culminating in a 2022 season that saw him hit .277/.329/.447 with 25 homers over 696 PA, translating to a 116 wRC+.
Swanson also hit 27 homers in 2021, bringing some solid power from the shortstop position. It could be that Swanson might still be entering his prime years as a hitter as he enters his age-29 season, making him an even more intriguing addition as an all-around player. Swanson is also an excellent baserunner and has a very strong defensive resume that includes a Gold Glove last season. The Outs Above Average metric grades Swanson with a +38 total over the last five seasons, and while his Defensive Runs Saved (+18) and UZR/150 (+0.4) numbers are a little more inconsistent, Swanson is certainly an above-average fielder at a key defensive position.
The Cubs already had a good defensive shortstop in Nico Hoerner, of course, and yet Hoerner’s versatility allowed Chicago to explore multiple options around the diamond. With Swanson now taking over at shortstop and Bellinger also signed as primarily the everyday center fielder, it looks like Hoerner will be spending most of his time at second base. Between Hoerner and Swanson, the Cubs now have one of the very best defensive middle infields in baseball, which will be particularly important in 2023 given the new rules limiting defensive shifts.
Between Swanson, Bellinger, Taillon, and Brad Boxberger, Chicago has spent a little over $265MM on guaranteed free agent deals this offseason. Even with a projected $181.1MM in payroll for 2023 and a luxury tax number (which is based on average annual values) of a little over $203.1MM, it seems possible that the Cubs and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer might not be done yet.
The Cubs’ Opening Day payroll in 2019 cracked the $203MM mark, so Hoyer might have at least another $22MM to spend if that past record total does represent ownership’s upper limit. Since the Cubs crossed the luxury tax threshold in 2016, 2019, and 2020, it could be that ownership might even green-light more spending at least up to the current $233MM tax line. “Intelligent spending” has been one of Hoyer’s chief descriptions of the Cubs’ spending strategies over the last two winters, and club chairman Tom Ricketts said at the start of the offseason that the front office would have “the necessary resources available to substantially supplement our current roster.”
Swanson’s signing marks the first time in two offseasons that the Cubs signed a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer. This means Chicago will have to give up $500K in international spending money, and lose its second-highest pick in the 2023 draft. While losing a draft pick (currently 49th overall) is no small matter, the Cubs will also get a bonus pick back since Willson Contreras rejected his QO and signed with the Cardinals. This will net Chicago a compensatory pick that will fall between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round, so roughly 70th overall.
Atlanta’s compensatory pick will also fall right alongside Chicago’s pick in the 70th-overall range. That draft selection will represent the last piece of Swanson’s tenure with the Braves, an overall very successful run highlighted by the team’s 2021 World Series championship. Since the Braves captured that title, the club has said goodbye to both Swanson and Freddie Freeman in free agency — a scenario that would’ve been unlikely 13 months ago, given how both seemed like cornerstone pieces.
President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has spent much of that time building a new foundation, however. The Braves have been very aggressive in locking up several young players to contract extensions, and also swung separate trades with the Athletics to bring in two more star players in Matt Olson (essentially Freeman’s replacement at first base) and new catcher Sean Murphy. This left less focus on Swanson, as Atlanta reportedly made him an offer in the neighborhood of six years and $100MM before the offseason began, and ever since, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman wrote that the two sides “haven’t had any legit negotiations.”
The Braves reportedly had reservations about committing the kind of high average-annual value it would’ve taken to land Swanson, as the $25.286 AAV on his Cubs deal would’ve been easily the highest on Atlanta’s payroll (Austin Riley’s $21.2MM is the current leader). While time will tell if the Braves made the right decision in moving on from Swanson, it’s hard to accuse the club of being tight-fisted, given how they’re already on pace for a team-record $196.5MM payroll and are close to the luxury tax threshold for the first time.
Atlanta might also feel like it has another young star ready to take the reins at shortstop, as Vaughn Grissom (who played his first 41 MLB games in 2022) now looks like the top choice at the position. Orlando Arcia is on hand as a veteran backup and you can never rule Anthopoulos out from another headline-grabbing move for another shortstop, but it appears as though the Braves are hoping Grissom can become the latest homegrown prospect to make an immediate impact at the big league level. Grissom already hit .291/.353/.440 in his first 156 career plate appearances.
Looking at both the shortstop market and the greater free agent market, Swanson is the latest player to cash in during what has been something of a spending free-for-all this winter. MLBTR projected Swanson for a seven-year, $154MM deal, so that prediction at least came closer to expectations than Bogaerts’ 11-year/$280MM deal with San Diego, Correa’s 13-year/$350MM pact with San Francisco, or even the 11 years and $300MM Turner got from the Phillies. While it was generally expected that Swanson would receive the smallest contract (relatively speaking) of the “big four” shortstops, the average annual values of the four players ended up all falling within a $2MM range, as the longer-term deals signed by Bogaerts, Correa, and Turner helped lessen the AAV and subsequent luxury tax hit.
Elvis Andrus and Jose Iglesias won’t command anywhere near those types of numbers, but the two veteran infielders are now the best shortstop options remaining on the open market. For other teams (like the Red Sox, Twins, Dodgers, and perhaps the Diamondbacks and Angels) that were looking for shortstop help and were at least on the periphery of the markets of the “big four,” Andrus or Iglesias might get some looks, or any needy teams might explore the trade market.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Wow
Great news, surely a massive overpay but they are a huge media market so the overpay should not tie their hands in the future.
Contract is better than I thought, basically Nimmo money. Half the cost of Correa. I like it.
Gold glove defense at shortstop, 25HR / 25SB, first overall pick of the 2015 draft, would have liked to see him stay with the Braves – maybe the Cubs will trade Madrigal back to the Sox.
Correa and Turner were the top two talents. Bogaerts and Swanson were tier two. After seeing Bogaerts get guaranteed $280 million, I’m surprisingly OK with giving Swanson $177 million, even for four fewer years.
Cubs needed to do something. They needed to overpay. They got a little crazy, but not off the rails.
25 sb? The man has only gotten more than 10 SB in 1 season and that total was 18…
He has never stolen more than 18 bases.
Crazy would have been signing any of the other 3 for 11 – 13 year contracts. I can live with a 7 year contract.
Larger bases will help with that somewhat.
It’s about trying to compete and staying under the luxury tax. Correa under 27 million.
@Giants: The new 2 throw to first pickoff rule and larger bases is going to increase stolen base totals league wide, imo. Makes sense that a smart baserunner w/good speed (like Swanson) will see an uptick over previous totals. The shift rule might make it tougher to cover 2B on stolen base attempts too—-depends on who’s at the plate.
Correa has stolen a total of six bases since 2017 and none in the past three seasons.
GiantsFaithful,
Check Kellyanne Conway’s ‘Alternative Baseball Reference’. It’ll probably show 25 SBs every year for every player.
Going off the rails on a crazy train
I don’t understand why they are trying to save $ on the front end of the deal. They should have a ton of flexibility right now, yet they are somewhat backloading the deal. I don’t understand.
I’ll give the optimistic Cubbie Blue Kool-Aid drinking answer:
The Ricketts are still on the hook for the last season of Jason Heyward’s $22M salary in 2023 minus whatever minimal amount he might make as a Dodger this year.
More importantly, Tommy boy will give Jed Hoyer the green light to trade for any of the potential 2024 elite free agents this offseason or at the trade deadline, more likely Rafael Devers or Shohei Ohtani than opt-out candidate Manny Machado whose Padres are more likely to be playing in the playoffs next fall. If a trade occurs, Ricketts will then try to jump the market with a contract extension offer neither superstar could possibly refuse that includes a helicopter field drop-off for all home games, rooftop perks for friends & family along with a stake in their ‘highly profitable’ Marquee Sports Network. lol
Didn’t we think the same on Heyward???
Heyward was an outfielder. Shortstops statistically have the longest careers because their athleticism allows them to move to lower positions on the defensive spectrum as they age.
A $25MM AAV covering ages 29-35. Doesn’t seem unreasonable in today’s market.
Exactly right. Good deal IMO.
very good shortstop that gives you a little of everything in 4 years this won’t be the worst of the 4 shortstop contracts
He will essentially replace Heyward’s contract after this year.
I am very happy Braves didn’t pay this much, love Dansby but not this much
Say that in May.
Out of all the SS that were signed, this was easily the most reasonable and closest to the players true value.
I thought Swanson would get 6 years around 140-150 when the offseason started. This isn’t that bad
The other 3 all got like 4 extra years on each of their contracts they didn’t deserve. Cubs came out the winners on the SS sweepstakes for sure.
For my fellow Braves fans who are making delusional posts about being glad we didn’t pay this not really sure who you expect to see playing SS. If it’s Grissom that won’t age well.
It can be the right decision for both teams. More important for Atlanta to extend Fried to go with Strider and Wright, and Mets and Phillies have improved pitching. Atlanta has Riley, Acuna, Harris, Olson and Albies to build around. But for the Cubs, Swanson fits in as a solid sign, Wrigley Field will help Dansby’s stats from falling too much from last year. Remember Dansby came up quick so 2022 maybe growth more than outlier.
And Murphy
Exactly. This is a good contract and I think his best years are coming up. He had to fight through nagging wrist and ankle injuries in his first few years and he is finally playing close to normal health. Because he knew he was their best option even when hurt, he laced up and toughed it out, hurting his own numbers in the process.
I do think it’s a bit of an overpay based on previous years, but if you really watch what he has been since getting healthy it’s every bit as good as the others that signed through age 40. Cubs got a good deal here, but no idea why they were going after him as they still have multiple years of non-contending and not a lot of really close prospects that are even middling.
@MJ: I’ve disagreed w/you on here about a few things MJ—–but not this. Any Braves fan who thinks Grissom’s going to be the “answer” at SS should go to the Braves fan site Battery Power. There’s an excellent breakdown on Vaughn Grissom there today. Written by Matt Powers, one of the best prospect writers that covers the Braves. It’s an informative, well written article w/Powers typically honest, no homerism assessment of Grissom’s 2022 season and possible future.
@Manny: “more growth than outlier.” Been telling anyone who’d listen the same thing Manny. The Braves just got a lot worse.
@UGA Steve: I’m guessing you don’t follow the minor league baseball too closely. If you did, you’d see beginning this year with Mervis and Wesneski, the Cubs are likely to see a steady stream of young players making their way to Chicago. Their system is in very good shape – and pitching wise also. They should have the wherewithal to support their needs into the future through their own farm system. It is highly rated.
Interesting considering mervis and wesneski both suffered major injuries this season while trying to dig their way out of Iowa.
@avenger65 What alternate universe do you live in? Mervis and Wesneski were not injured at Iowa.
Shocktop- This is why drugs are bad for you. Avenger must believe in the Multiverse and watches way too many movies. Wesneski and Mervis are just fine and thriving at Iowa and MLB last year. I think a trip to rehab and a couple of electroshock treatments just to get him back on track. WOW.
Why didn’t they just extend Baez? He was home grown just as good as Swanson on defense and a better bat. Baffles me why they didn’t keep him. This contract will look bad in a couple of years when he slows down and his defense isn’t the same.
I really like Javy, but, he is not a better bat than Swanson.
agreed – they could have had Baez for less money and years.
Concur
Swanson will earn more per average annual rate than Correa.
Correa will be an old man, in baseball terms, in the final three years of his contract..
Haha… No, he doesn’t.
I thought for sure this dude was gonna be a brave for life
After Freddie left, forget it!
I thought that he would be a diamondback for life.
So Manny, are you saying it’s a massive overpay or not? I think Swanson will be the most productive of the 4 when contract is taken into consideration. I think Turner overall is a better ball player but considering 7 years to 11…. I’d take Swanson. I think his bat is just starting to show form and he is an elite SS.
Despite the sentiment they’ll all respond with here, Braves fans just died a little on the inside.
I died a little on the inside after the Freddie debacle. After that, I really don’t care much about the emotional side of baseball any more. It’s a business.
bhambrave: Fair point. I guess that’s the way we all feel these days about players we watch grow up with our franchise only to depart in free agency.
And WSox fans just collectively vomited. The local media doesn’t need much incentive to overcover the loveable losers.
The White Sox are not lovable. They are losers. Sinking back into familiar obscurity for the next decade.
I’ll match you starting pitcher for starting pitcher. Lots of luck winning anything with that bucket of rejects.
How little you know of us. Dansby was a great player but you’d be drunk to think he’s going to live up to that contract. His k rate is still ludicrous and hes going to swing for the moon even more now. He got better as the Braves lineup did. Bellinger is not going to save him.
Using fWAR as a guide:
Atlanta Braves fWAR
2022 101
2023 Proj. 93*
*Murphy/All-Star d’Arnaud net to +1.4 wins
New York Mets fWAR
2022 101
2023 Proj. 105*
*conservatively assumed +1 win for Senga
Philadelphia Phillies fWAR
2022 87
2023 Proj. 88
.
@H E Pennypacker using War to predict win totals is terrible. War is misleading especially when it comes to pitching. Groundball pitchers get killed in WAR even if they pitch well because the stats give credit to the good defense over them. A reliever could have a positive War but say he gives up runs in close games but is great in low leverage spots, the games will have more losses. Just look at the 2021 Mariners that greatly exceeded their predicted War totals, they werent that good but still managed to win because of their ability to win close games
LFGMets: I realize the limitations of fWAR; however, the net +/- is not even close. What do you suggest I use? I’m happy to do the analysis. Cheers.
H E Pennypacker;
1. You may want to check out the record of all these projection outfits before you cite them as expert sources. By late May – early June they’re so far off it’s comical.
2. Teams don’t stop making moves on opening day – let alone December 17.
3. MLB is a playoff league.
Hi Samuel:
1. I didn’t “cite them as expert sources”. I even noted 10 minutes before you interjected that I am very well aware of the limitations of using fWAR. I also asked what a better forecasting tool would be. No tool is perfect, but I’m guessing your Magic 8 Ball is the only valid opinion in your mind.
2. I didn’t say the offseason is over.
Listen, champ, I realize you’re the resident curmudgeon here but would appreciate if you’d please take it elsewhere.
Cheers, champ.
Some prefer Steamer or Zips projections. It’s all opinion, no matter what projections are used.
NashvilleJeff: Thanks, sir. I will take a look at those.
That doesn’t match fangraph’s WAR projections at all. They have the Braves at the 4th highest WAR in 2023, only behind the Yankees, Padres, and Mets. They are one win behind the Mets, so where are your made up numbers coming from? Straight up lying?
You have the Mets at 105 wins? Lol, that is nonsense. Fangraphs have the Mets behind the Yankees and Padres, nowhere near 100 wins, let alone 105.
Pachoo: I used 2022 fWAR for every transaction for each team so far this offseason. I did not know they had a section with 2023 projections. I will check it out.
Sorry to trigger you.
The Phillies proved that all you have to do is make the playoffs, and not necessarily win the division.
bravesfan1970: I guess my point was that (when taking into consideration the players each team lost in trades and free agency) the Braves and Phillies didn’t improve as much as I had originally thought. It’s also only December (I’ve already been reprimanded). I don’t believe you can discount the prior year number completely and then assume all of your incumbent players are going to improve rather than regress. Nice chatting. Cheers.
2022 fWAR
BRAVES
Swanson -6.4
Jansen -1.1
Contreras -2.4
Duvall -0.9
Grossman -0.2
[-Wins -11.0]
Murphy 5.1
d’Arnaud -3.9
Jimenez 1.4
[+Wins 2.6]
BRAVES Net Wins -8.4
NY METS:
Bassitt -2.7
Walker -2.5
Degrom -2.2
T. Williams -0.6
Ottavino -1.1
Lugo -0.2
J. Rodriguez -0.4
[-Wins -9.7]
Verlander 6.1
Senga 1.0
Quintana 4.0
Robertson 0.7
Raley 0.9
Narvaez 1.1
[+Wins 13.8]
NY METS Net Wins +4.1
PHILLIES:
Segura -1.7
Syndergaard -1.1
Gibson -1.8
Eflin -1.4
Robertson -0.7
Herrera -0.5
Camargo -0.4
Hand -0.3
-Wins -7.9
Turner 6.3
Walker 2.5
Strahm 0.3
+Wins 9.1
Phillies Net Wins +1.2
.
That is absurd and doesn’t take into a account playing time, age, etc. Fangraphs has live 2023 projected Wars for every team that is updated daily. Why not use their real projections? Their 2023 WAR projections as of today have the Mets 1.0 wins ahead of the Braves with the Phillies 7 wins behind the Braves (and 8 behind the Mets). They have the Yankees and Padres as the top 2 teams. The Yankees, given an expected win total of 46.7 for a team with 0 WAR, are at exactly 100 wins. This is their totals as of today:
Yankees : 100.0 wins
Padres: 98.8
Mets: 98.1
Braves: 97.2
Phillies: 90.6
Your totals of 105 Met wins to Braves 93 is absurd.
The Mets are a very old team while the Braves continue with youth. I still give the edge to the Braves, despite the $200M+ difference in their payrolls + luxury tax.
You’re absurd, Pachoo. And emotional. Please take it elsewhere while you pout.
I don’t like fWar as a projection, but I do think in this case, it’s not particularly far off.
I think all projections are pretty hazardous in my opinion. For me, WAR is just used as an over all evaluator for a players season since every season there is a broad range between one seasons war and another. As for suggestions of good projection tools, I have nothing for you. I just don’t think analytics have nailed it down so we’ll. But baseball reference has one of you’re interested in looking at it.
@H E Penn. Something you get used to here is a lack of polite conversation. If someone feels you are wrong about something they must show you how they think you are wrong and while doing it, be insulting and classless. Lots of that around here.
Your math was juvenile. You can’t just add and subtract 2022 war like that to get to an answer you like.
Some of the pluses and minuses in your “math” are hilarious. Braves get a -6.4 for losing Swanson but have no plus for any replacement shortstop. Guess the Braves are playing with no shortstop this season!
Von:
Thanks. All projections are an opinion as NashvilleJeff rightly alluded to above. I don’t actually think the Mets are going to win 105 games, lol; however, last year’s fWAR can at least be used to assess in general how a team has improved thus far this offseason. The 2023 fWAR projections are riddled with subjectivity, assumptions and variables that are not divulged. I’ll leave that to the experts. Cheers.
SalaryCapMyth:
I don’t disagree at all re: projections not being very meaningful. That’s why, right or wrong, I used the 2022 numbers to assess what these moves could approximate for player value gained or lost (up to this point in the season). I’m no expert and open-minded enough to see another’s point of view when presented without the vitriol from the likes of Pachoo, Samuel, etc.
SalaryCapMyth: That might be hard for me to get used to. Thanks for the heads up.
Your math does things like give the Mets +1.1 more war credit for Narvaez without taking away any war for having less at bats for any of the Mets prior catchers, basically giving the Mets 200+ plate additonal appearances at catcher over all other teams.
Fangraphs has 2023 project WAR based on plate appearances, innings pitched, etc. along with players age, home park, etc. There is no reason to try to create any sort of projections for 2022 using bad math like that when Fangraphs has already done the math, correctly, for 2023. Their projected WAR totals for 2023 have the Mets as 0.9 wins better than the Braves while your fuzzy “math” has the Mets ahead of the Braves by 12 games lol.
And you aren’t even using 2022 WAR correctly. You are adding your WAR adjustments to final 2022 records, which isn’t the way it works. The Mets had the luckiest win / loss total in baseball last year according to Fangraphs baseruns Stat. Their level of play should have led to 95 wins, not 101 win, so they had 6 lucky wins, the most of any team in baseball. The Braves record was exactly as their play would expect, 101 wins. The Phillies had 3 unlucky losses, should have had 90 wins, not 87.
Pachoo. 6 days ago (Mets Sign Kodai Senga)
“BTW, the 2022 Mets had one of the luckiest seasons in terms of wins / losses according to Fangraphs baseruns statistic. Their play should have resulted in 95 wins, not 101, so they had 6 extra lucky wins, which was the highest of any team. The Braves were expected to win 101 games so had no lucky wins while the Phillies should have had 90 wins so had 3 unlucky losses.”
You said that already, champ!
Pennypacker, if you bring up stuff like WAR on here, you’ll always get the usual backlash from the idiots who are stuck in the past clinging to their batting averages and fielding percentages.
@pennypacker
That little tiff aside. He’s not wrong about that calculation you did there.
That’s not insightful math. I can tell already that you didn’t discount WAR at all. For example D-Rob’s WAR is .7 for the entire year. He played 70% of that year in Chicago.
2023 WAR projections may have issues but they’re more insightful than that math you did there.
Hank: I’m starting to see what you’re saying!
BStrowman: I understand now. Admittedly, I don’t fully understand all of these metrics, but you learn the best by making mistakes!
This is what I mean. Posters like Pachoo can’t have adult conversations. Just throws tantrums when he thinks you’re wrong.
I appreciated the effort and you showed your work. Neat experiment that some are taking far too seriously.
More gobbledy-gook numbers that are completely useless.
I’ll now retreat to my nerdatorium.
@Hammerin Hank
Find me some legends of baseball like eg. Chipper Jones, Greg Maddux, David Ortiz, and Pedro Martinez to name a few. You won’t find them “hammerin’ on about ‘WAR’, but you’re calling people “idiots” for talking about real statistics, and not some made up stat. The idiots are the ones that think WAR is the main or be all/end all stat in baseball when assessing a player’s ability, it isn’t.
Batting average will always be a meaningful stat, as will OPS, as will ERA for a pitcher, as will inherited runners scored/stranded, as will batting average against pitcher, to name a few.
Just dont. Until we have 3-4 years of limited shift, just use rWAR. fWAR uses UZR and it is totally BS because it doesn’t consider the shift at all.
The past few years we have often had SS and even 3B playing shallow RF a third of all plays with LHB.
Projections are not real. They are wishes. Real is what happened. Past tense.
BA is a made up stat. It wasn’t used as an official stat until baseball was 30 years old. So is OPS. It still isnt and official stat. So is ERA.
People grow up and they learn more than addition. They learn multiplication and then eventually algebra and geometry and calculus.
If the world stayed stuck in addition, read BA, we would be much poorer a society for it.
So grow up and learn the new ways to define baseball performance. The teams ALL use it. Don’t you think you should understand and use it too if you want to be an educated baseball fan?
@websoulsurfer
You’re claiming to be ‘educated’ because you’re using”WAR”. Give me a break. If you’re so educated can you tell me the WAR for Swanson on Fangraphs, B Ref, Baseball Prospectus, and tell me why they differ.. Which particular site out of these three, accounts or allows for park adjustments when assessing pitching stats or batting stats? Is Aaron Judge’s WAR worth more because he hits more home runs in a home run conducive park? Does WAR take account for this? I could go on, but here you are talking about people’s “education”. Frankly, that is ironic and laughable.
Last but not least, WAR Is not the be all and end all, it’s a made up stat, it can create discussion, it’s not what you’re doing which is saying that it is the be all end all. WAR is a baseball political discussion at the sports bar or on MLBTR.
And for the record I don’t think Bill James is uneducated.
“It is that math should never be used as a substitute for thought. Many, many people use WAR to call an end to what would otherwise be interesting discussions. It’s annoying.”
HE: Reputable sites use WAR, ZiPS and Steamer every year. Its a discussion piece. A predictor. Nothing more. What you are dealing with are idiots who dont like the result and are soiling their diaper.
Keep on trucking. The mouth breathers will find something else to be an expert on.
@HH, most don’t have an issue with WAR; they have an issue with how he misused the stat here. They should.
Fred, He just told you that the WAR on Fangraphs is inaccurate and why you shouldn’t use it. Pay attention. You might actually learn something.
Your comment shows that you don’t have any understanding of WAR and yet you feel you are educated enough to say its not the be all, end all.
Go learn a little about the stat and maybe, just maybe, you will be able to intelligently discuss it. You are not there yet.
Baseballislife
The word “Fangraphs” is not in the post that I responded to, yet here you are talking about education. Take comprehension lessons, you are not there yet in comprehending English.
(“websoulsurfer19 hours ago
BA is a made up stat. It wasn’t used as an official stat until baseball was 30 years old. So is OPS. It still isn’t and official stat. So is ERA.
People grow up and they learn more than addition. They learn multiplication and then eventually algebra and geometry and calculus.
If the world stayed stuck in addition, read BA, we would be much poorer a society for it.
So grow up and learn the new ways to define baseball performance. The teams ALL use it. Don’t you think you should understand and use it too if you want to be an educated baseball fan?”)
Tell me where the word “fangraphs” is in that post. You clearly didn’t understand the question I asked. You’re asserting that I don’t understand WAR, I have asked a question, please explain why Swanson’s WAR is different on B Ref, F/graphs & Baseball Prospectus. I’ll wait for your ‘intelligent’ mythical response. Furthermore, go ask Ortiz, David Cone, Pedro Martinez, Alex Rodriguez, Frank Thomas, John Smoltz, amongst a number of baseball experts/pundits whether they use WAR as a be all end all, they don’t..
I suggest you read this and attempt to comprehend it, the article is accurate as far I am concerned. Maybe the writer ‘doesn’t understand WAR’ either, they’re just not as intelligent as you and those using WAR.
wfuogb.com/15452/opinion/war-baseball-statistic-is…
@Fred McGriff HR websoulsurfer and BaseballisLife are the same guy with multiple accounts. It is pretty funny however that he races to this thread on a different account to refer to his first account as “he” and then say the exact same thing from another account.
If you ask a statistician, the man with one foot in boiling water and the other foot in a cube of ice is, on the average, quite comfortable.
But with a high standard deviation!
Giddy up
CJML: “Here’s To Feeling Good All The Time” 😉
The Cubs will go as far as their pitching and defense takes them. If the pitching is as good as I think it is, They’ll be fighting for the division. If the pitching doesn’t come through, It will be a long season but there is enough depth to insure that won’t happen. A couple of more bullpen arms and another C and they’re set.
Happ to me is average and can be improved upon. If not, he has value as a SH and can be kept around. Sounds like they feel about Happ like they did Contreras. If they can extend him on a team friendly deal fine if not he can go. Wisdom is an above average defender and whiff machine. Be interesting to see if they can do better. There is still a lot of 40 man work to be done and there is trade material there to get what they want. Way too much is being made of Rivas, McKinstry and Mastrobouni being LH. Yeah they’re LH but they stink. Keep the good RH guys and lose the bums. If they’re in it at the deadline, I could see them being buyers as they should have a lot more answers on what they have by then. Spring training should be a hoot, Can’t wait.
Can’t wait to see what this albatross contract is going to look like…
You don’t even know the details yet.
7 years is definitely less than I was expecting. I’ll 100% eat crow on this.
Why eat crow? You were correct about it being an albatross. $25 million/year for this guy? Huge overpay. Congrats to Swanson.
Huge overpay? LOL. Let me guess what team you’re a fan of.
There is no way that Swanson is worth this much money for seven years.
A Mets fan is coming on here talking about value? LOL. Come on man.
I know he had a really good season last year but he’s been a below avg hitter in 4 of his 6 full seasons. Whatever the numbers are, I’m glad the Angels did not sign him
Oh please. Everybody’s been overpaid this offseason. Get some new material.
Even though he was a below average hitter in four of those years, wait til he starts playing in that band box. His numbers will go up, just like Bellinger’s. I hope teams who are interested in Bellinger after 2023 take the tiny confines into consideration when evaluating his true offense.
^^^ How to say you don’t know what bandbox means without saying it.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-f…
The ones at the top in a shade of red are hitters parks or bandboxes.
The ones at the bottom or in a shade of blue are pitchers parks or NOT bandboxes.
My teaching moment of the day for the troll from the south side.
Winds blowing out and wrigley is a bandbox. Winds blowing in and it’s the biggest pitchers park in the majors.
Would you be able to comprehend it if I said “shoe box”?
Wrigley has been pretty much neutral according to park factor since it’s inception. Sorry try again.
Park factors take wind into account.
Obviously you can’t comprehend. You are a White Sox fan, so that says all we need to know.
8/165 is my guess.
Post Correa, I was thinking 8 years and 200 million. Seven years and 177 million is not bad given the craziness this off-season.
I think it’s 2-3 million aav overpay but the years are solid. I honestly didn’t think the cubs would go over 6. Definitely rather have this than a 11-13 year contract.
Definitely. 7 years is the perfect amount of years. By then, if prospects pan out they’ll be ready to get the call within that contract.
8/165 would be a good contract, not great. But at 7/177 it can’t be considered a good contract. 25M AAV is way too much.
Congrats to Dansby, I said it before the off-season started that I wanted him back with the Braves, but only at a 20-21M mac AAV, not higher.
Socal, way too much compared to what?
7/$177
Lol
Twins really gonna roll with Kyle farmer
Lol indeed. Twins battling the Tigers and Royals for 3rd place in the AL Central.
Or Royce Lewis, or Jorge Polanco, or Austin Martin. The Twins top prospect is only a year or two away (Brooks Lee) so maybe it doesn’t make sense to commit to Swanson long-term
Lewis is injured too often and weren’t they moving him to outfield?
Polanco is now more of a 2B. Martin might be a bust. Lee had a promising two months after being drafted. Too early to anoint as their savior.
Lewis was tried in the OF because Buxton was injured and it was a clear path to the majors. He’s still listed as a SS
He looked better than carlos Correa for nearly a month when Correa was out with broken finger at SS.
Correa came back and they tried ‘fitting him in ‘
Twins were in on a few of these guys, so may not have the optimism you do.
Chaim Bloom was supposedly in on a few of those guys too. Obviously didn’t mean anything
He can pick it on the infield.
Cubs lineup
Hoerner 2B
Suzuki RF
Happ LF
Mervis 1B
Swanson SS
Wisdom 3B
Gomes C
Morel CF
Need to sign a premium bat for DH
SP1 Stroman
SP2 Taillon
SP3 Steele
SP 4 Wasneski
SP 5 Hendricks/Thompson/Sampson/Alzolay
Bellinger and Madrigal missing from. It,
Oops Bellinger gets Morel’s spot. Morel and Madrigal are weak DH options need a DH.
Bellinger for sure in the starting lineup, but I’ve gotta imagine Madrigal is as good as gone. No way he should be kept around as a back up infielder who can only play second and isn’t anything better than a contact hitter.
You forgot Bellinger
No Bellinger in the starting line up?
Belli is the secret weapon..
Ha! Yes! After 5 minutes I gave up trying to think of a cute or funny response back to you, TJ. Thinking it’s just a MannyBeingMVP oversight as they are usually on top of things. I see a couple others posted the same as I was typing. I think Madrigal is the odd man out.
Baseball Mind
Yes oversight Morel is at most weak side of platoon with Belli more likely Belli plays 150 games in CF if healthy, still bats 8 or 9
I figured that with you, MannyBeingMVP 🙂 Didn’t want it to come across like I was ripping you. Us amateur GMs need to support each other 🙂
My weapon is crop dusting in a car.
How do you crop dust in a car? Crop dusting is the process of slowly letting out gas while walking around to make it difficult to pinpoint who “dealt it”. Given the stationary nature of sitting in a car, I believe you may be referring to releasing a “silent but deadly” fart, which can still be rather ambiguous nonetheless. I’m a moderator over at FartGraphs, so I take this stuff very seriously. Only mature counter-arguments please.
Whoops, yes Sandy I meant silent but deadly.
Nope, Bellinger in CF. Morel or Wisdom 3B. Rotate 3B. I’d sign Sano on a flyer for DH.
Turner or Brantley would be good DH options IMHO.
Brantley or Justin Turner as a DH would be great. When JT hits a single or double, Morel can run for him if needed.
They need another LH bat for DH. Unless an in-house option like Darius Hill grabs the spot.
They’ll still likely sign a 1B/3B option as insurance for Mervis, and/or upgrade from Wisdom/Morel. Also think they’ll bring in another catcher.
No doubt another catcher, fearthecub. Hedges? Sanchez? I prefer Sanchez but know his reputation is not appreciated. I would take a one year flyer on him. I am OK with Wisdom and Morel.
I like Higgins in-house, and there aren’t a lot of options that are a clear upgrade from him in free agency. Maybe Barnhart if you want a lefty bat.
I feel like they’d need to trade to truly upgrade, but they admittedly don’t have a lot of trade chips. I’d like to see Jansen, but not sure what it would take.
You are right. I specifically like a Jansen/Gomes tag team at catcher as long as trading for Jansen is not costly. Good reminder about Jansen. Thanks!
Maybe. But if Mervis gets send down, Wisdom can move to 1B and Morel to 3B. But I would bet a small order of French fries that Mervis will outhit Wisdom and Morel
Trade for Jansen would be good, but probably don’t have the ammo.
They would have to include “ammo” that they rather keep. I agree.
That’s a solid 3rd place lineup and rotation behind the Cards and Milwaukee.
Cards have Wilson as their daily game called behind the plate, so the Red Birds are going to regret signing him!
Cubs have improved, Cards stayed the same and Brewers have lost a little talent. Look at Cubs record in 2022 post All-Star break and you can see that they were improving. Cubs will have a winning record in 2022. The Cards are still the favorites to win the division, but the Cubs are in the mix now. Unfortunately, I doubt any Central team will secure a wild card berth in 2023. Cubs are moving in the right direction, and a solid bat for DH will help a lot! Maybe bring back the Sheriff, too.
As a Brewer’s fan, I’m impressed with the additions the Cubs have made. I still think it’s the Cardinals’ division to lose, but I could see either Milwaukee or Cubs finish first if St Louis regresses. If not, i think the Cubs at least have a decent chance of overtaking Brewers for 2nd place.
Let’s see the dollars. Interesting
7/177
Two more wins for the Cubs in 2023…
Depends which Seanson we’re getting. Last year he was worth 4-5 WAR. But he had been very inconsistent over the years.
Not the last two. And the Braves don’t win the WS without him.
Good ball player who is not a superstar but is getting a superstar contract.
You guys drafted him 1/1. So there must be some talent there, right?
Dave Stewart drafted him #1
One thing we know, Dave Stewart knows talent.
Easy to get along with too!
That’s not a superstar contract anymore. That is a good player contract which he is.
25 mil isn’t super star contract and hasn’t been since Joey votto signed for 25 per. Getting paid til 41 or 30+ per is super star
So all 4 of the “big” shortstops ended up in the NL.
Good riddance.
AL.. NL… I feel like it doesn’t matter anymore with the NL now having the DH and the new balanced schedule.
If this is the Cubs “big move” after hearing all the rumors about Correa/Xander/Murphy/Rodon going to the Cubs, I think all Cardinals and Brewers fans would gladly take that.
It’s more than what the Brewers have done. And that’s not a rumor.
Contreras was a huge pickup.
For the Cardinals. Not the Brewers.
Brewers traded for William the other day.
For both of them.
Yep, I don’t see this moving the needle much. Plus moving Hoerner off SS might ruffle some feathers. Good player though. Not enough to catch the Cards, and at the moment, I still give the slight edge to the Crew for #2 in the Central.
The cubs have a lot of contact pitchers and now they have a pretty legit defense. I’d love to see a big bat next.
kripes—exactly whose feathers are going to get ruffled with Hoerner moving off SS?
Nico is a team player who might get to bat first with a better lineup behind him. Chemistry will be fine.
Hoerner talked to management and was very willing to move to 2B if needed.
Now they need to extend him at SS prices. Buy out his arbitration years and two more.
Swanson, Taillon and Bellinger, to replace Contreras.
Or Toro and Winker to replace Wong and Renfroe.
Or Willson Contreras to replace Molina and Pujols.
Cheapest SS available, Cubbies gotta Cub.
Do you always care more about the Cubs than your underachieving team?
This from a White Sox fan would be comical if it weren’t so transparent, predictable and pathetic. Look how quickly you pounced on this post, hahaha.
Also, journeyman average OFer, Benitendi was literally the largest contract EVER given out by Reinsdorf and doesn’t even sniff 100 mil. The Cubs have essentially rendered the White Sox a small market team in spite of playing in the 3rd largest market. So much so that JR threatened to move the irrelevant red headed step kids of Chicago to TB. During a self proclaimed “contending window” You let Rodon walk, not even attaching a QO, then did the same w/ Abreu, the face of that pathetic franchise BUT found enough change in the cushions to severely overpay Grandal and Keuchel. No wonder this inept franchise has only won 3 playoff series in the last 105 years(wow, read that again…) even the Pirates and Padres have won 3 times as many.
Soooooo maybe trolling LITERALLY ANY OTHER TEAM might not be the best idea unless your goal was to look silly. Hahaha
Bryant-Rizzo2016
Concur, except for the attack on redheads 🙂
Haha, that’s fair. (No Gingers were harmed in the making of this comment)
Rita Hayworth and Maureen O’Hara are relieved to hear that.
I’m a Sox fan but that’s a ridiculous comment my man. How is he the “cheapest”? He is generally regarded as the 4th best SS option this off season. There are still others available who are cheaper and not nearly as good. The Cubs are getting a player that is much better than what they had in a really a long time. Javy provided flashes of brilliance but also had many flaws. Dansby is good all around. A solid high floor player who will help a team win games. Bad take.
I don’t have time to explain this to neophytes. Do more reading and less commenting, thanks.
Ok, to all the Cubs fans who have trouble understanding what they read—BOTH FRANCHISES BASED IN CHICAGO SUCK. I’ve never said otherwise. Neither team spends money commensurate with their markets or revenues. This is more true with the Cubs who are a top 5 revenue team. They ranked 3rd in revenues the year after their 1st Championship in 100+ years, yet still pretended to be a small market team in the sleepy little town with 9.9 million people in the metro area alone—but, I digress. There can be no change without accountability, and the fans needs to hold both of these teams accountable for consistently exploiting us by fielding the most mediocre rosters possible and greedily pocketing the revenues year after year.
Agree. When looking at the money Javy got paid by the Tigers and now Dansby’s contract with the Cubs, it’s a relatively similar contract, and the way I saw it was Javy’s shown the world the best he’s ever gonna be and it’s gonna be a rough decline for him. As far as Swanson, maybe he truly is a late bloomer and he might sustain what he’s doing because he’s built his game on a solid foundation that isn’t about just swinging at anything within a foot or two of being a strike. This contract actually has the potential to be a great deal for the cubs where as had the Cubs signed Javy to that contract it would bury them.
Swanson was brought up to the MLB without much time in minor league baseball. He really was introduced to professional baseball, at the MLB level. This could prove to be a very nice signing for the Cubs.
Horner was worth 4 WAR last year.
For the record, Dansby Swanson (6.4) had the second highest WAR among MLB shortstops in 2022. Francisco Lindor (6.8) was first. Lindor placed #7 overall among all MLB players with Swanson ranking #12. fangraphs.com/leaders/war
Elvis Andrus was the cheapest SS available. Even the White Sox didn’t want to re-sign him.
Cheapest SS available?
José Iglesias entra en la conversación.
Andrelton Simmons debería ser incluso más barato que José Iglesias
Wow, really? Swanson was the cheapest of the top 4 free agent short stops available this year. You people struggling with context was live a hard life reading like an 8 year old. You should all think about forming a support group or something.
No, when typing exact words, they are ready as those words and not others. most humans don’t have the ability to mind read so to expect everyone to know what you mean is unrealistic. With this post of yours, you are essentially calling the Cubs cheap for not going after the top 3 guys, or would that not be enough either? Does it have to be the top guy no matter the cost? If anyone here needs a support group, you & Dogbone lead the list. Can’t believe I am defending the Cubs. And I’m not the only one calling you out for your idiotic post. again.
We read just fine. We went to better public schools than your Southwest side CPS schools, ChiSoxCity.
You don’t know where I went to school, but please, continue with the douchbaggery.
Look at you using the term douchbaggery to describe someone other than yourself. LOL.
Well said!
Cheapest because they won’t be paying him until he is 47 years old. Cheap is complimentary.
Cubs had to do an overpay to get him cuz he wanted to stay with the Braves if thr money was close.
What’s an “overpay” in this current market? Especially for a major market team w/ plenty of money to spend. Did they even release the contract details yet?
7/177
Bryzzo—you are exactly correct—there is absolutely nothing that is an overpay. Unless the team folds because they can’t meet payroll—they have the money.,
The Braves were never close.
What makes u think Braves even made an offer ?
They did try to extend him at one point last season at 6 / $100M.
Anthoupolous(McGuirk): Hold on, says it right here …..S.A.M.S.O.N.I.T.E., I was way off!!
Oh yeah
Midddddd
Whoa! Cubs actually went and got heeeeeeeem!
Nice signing, guessing the contract is a market-reasonable 14 years/$250MM?
Thanks Clip. Congrats on your offseason.
Thanks Coop!
Hey, 7/$177 is really good for this market, imho. Especially given he’s the last of the four big SS to sign. Even before the market went crazy I was thinking…5/$150 would’ve been very reasonable.
Swanson could very well turn out to be the position player deal of the offseason, man!
Cashman has that honor wrapped up already Clip (yes I know you said position players).haha
Defense is overrated.
This feels like Heyward all over again.
An ATL native that made good with the hometown team only to turn down an extension and search for greener pastures mainly on defensive laurels with a steady offensive presence and leadership abilities. Change my mind.
Thanks for memories, Dansby. Best of luck.
Heyward would be a good comp if he played ss instead of rf. 177 million isn’t what it was 8 years ago when Heyward signed.
He won a Gold Glove last season. Think before you spew.
You should reread the comment and then read your response because your answer regarding a gold glove doesnt even make any sense. Miguel Rojas provided like 3 WAR last year for only 5 million so yeah, this deal sucks.
The Miguel Rojas argument applies to all of the Big 4 shortstops.
Cubs are a big market team and the Swanson and Taillon signings at least brought them closer to where they should be. Hopefully they will add a solid DH and a good relief pitcher.
I would like Justin Turner and Andrew Chafin
Chemo850… That’s because I was responding to the comment above that one- “Defense is overrated”..
Happy Wife, Happy Life
And the dodgers gonna roll with… Lux?
Guessing 8/180
I hope less
Close, 7/177
Ouch
Ahhh. Release.
Dodgers sticking with the young guys this season. I don’t hate it.
They’ll probably be 4th in the west…
I will be anyone even money that they finish no worse than second in the division. They are a 95 win team. Only the Padres May finish ahead of them in that division and I could see either Dodgers or Padres end up in first. Padres now have better hiring but I would take Dodgers pitching.
Dodgers in no way have better pitching, only retaining Kershaw and urias.
Padres got em there too, but yeah, the dodgers should still be a threat regardless
Gavin Lux will be solid in 2023 at SS, Muncy/Vargas at 3B with Muncy getting DH time too, Taylor/Busch at 2B with Taylor getting LF/CF reps as well. Outman full time in LF or CF. Could easily see LA start 3 rookies, Busch, Vargas & Outman on any given night knowing they still have Betts & Freeman to power the offense. Smith and Lux will step up. Taylor and Muncy will bounce back.
Betts is fragile, Freeman is aging fast, Muncy has a torn ACL, Lux has no brain, the prospects are meh, half the pitching staff is injury prone…try again?
Urias, Kershaw, Gonsolin, May,
Plus Grove, Stone, Pepiot and Miller
Neon, how many years since 1969 have the Dodgers ended up ahead of the Padres?
SD sent them home just a few months ago…
Playoffs are a crapshoot, teams that get hot at the right time triumph. Look at the Braves in 2021, they rode Rosario, Berroa and Duvall, the Phils in 2022 didn’t make it all they way, but it was the same story, hot bats at the right time. Phils going farther than the Braves didn’t make them the better team (signing Turner this off-season did). Same with the Padres, center fielder that is offensively challenged becomes Mike Trout against the Mets…..hot at the right time. Pads are a good team, but until they can string together division wins like the Dodgers, they are not the better team
Division titles are like participation trophies. Winning in the playoffs is all that matters. Players will tell you the same…
Y’all Padres fans spew this same BS every offseason and then go into hiding by June when the Dodgers are 20 games ahead
Lol, well every team plays for that “crapshoot”. You think teams don’t build rosters for the postseason? Because a couple teams have shocked everyone and won it all it’s a “crapshoot”? This board never ceases to make me laugh. I should have my students come on here so they know how *not* to make a bad argument.
Nobody disagrees that San Diego is entering the mix.
But only a troll would say that two of Rockies, Giants or Dbacks are likely to finish ahead of Dodgers. Any one of those teams could surprise but the likelihood is Dodgers will end up in first or second.
SD will prob win the west. The DBacks are on the rise. Giants will be better. That puts LA vying for third/fourth most likely.
And you’re vying for dumbest comments in this thread
Cool counter-argument, dumbo. Thinking is hard!
Trying to find a team that started 3 rookies and made the playoffs.
I can’t see them finish 3rd, let alone 4th.
Same, especially since a lot of those younger guys, aside from will Smith, we’re fairly poopy.
Padres n Giants should have a good time this season
Padres a close 2nd with a larger offer..
Padres just gonna sign a buncha shortstops. I mean c’mon, our hall of Fame closer was a short stop too
6 All Star Shortstops on every team is the way of the future!
Heck yeah! The future is now!
Soon we will be playing with Quaffles.
haha. that’s probably what they’ll say anyway right?
Is this sarcasm or are you serious?!
CLEARLY we are being serious….
I know I certainly wasn’t joking.
Haha Yeah I was.
1 year, $250M.
Cubs needed a STAR to come in and change the clubhouse. Dansby isn’t that guy. Still I’m happy they did something good for a change. A middling 4th starter and a 4th outfielder who can’t hit aside, at least Swanson caused Jed to get out of his comfort zone.
No matter how good or not Swanson is, he’s still playing on a rebuilding team. The cubs felt it was time to add some names to their roster, but most of the players are just placeholders right now until the cubs decide to make more moves. A LOT more moves.
There looks to be more STAR power in free agency next offseason including two 3B (Manny Machado and Rafael Devers) along with one-of-a-kind superstar Shohei Ohtani. Cubs are still seeking their core 3B and could use more left-handed punch in their lineup which Devers and Ohtani could supply, to say nothing of an ace pitcher in Wrigley Field.
One or two of these 2023 free agents could be the STAR. Dansby Swanson will settle in nicely as the Cubs new Sheriff or Captain.
And Hoerner’s gonna be a stud at 2nd base. The defense will be much improved up the middle with Swanson/Hoerner/Bellinger..
Chaim Bloom…swing & a miss AGAIN. smh.
“We were this close to blowing Dansby away with a HUGE offer, and now this. Idk what happened!”
Sure, except for the fact that we don’t need a 7-year SS.
Agreed. My guess is the Sox offered him at most 5 years with a high annual value.
guyonabuffalo;
My guess is the Red Sox didn’t even talk to him.
They have Story,
Rod sox front office has no strategy. Traded nobody/signed nobody….absolutely clueless.
Big whiffa;
Their strategy has been obvious to me and many others for 2-3 years now.
Because you don’t like what they’re doing doesn’t mean they have no strategy.
I guess winning one World Series was too much for him and he wanted to make sure he doesn’t have to go through it again. I do wish him and his wife a great life together, he was a good Brave and was glad we had him while we did
Both funny and true. I guess winning isn’t everything. Bummed the Braves are letting this happen, but I’m sure the money or years was prohibitive.
Says he got 177 over 7 years so slightly over 25mil a season… glad the Braves didn’t match. We need to lock up Fried and other pitchers.
After seeing the insane market this year for pitching, no way Fried takes a team friendly deal, he can easily get Rodon money.
Braves had $545 million in revenue with non-baseball expenses of $132 million. What makes you think they could not have locked up Fried and signed any top SS they wanted?
Cubs just won 5 years ago pal. They will win again.
The Braves win a WS and suddenly their homies think they can look down their noses? Clowns.
How many years between the 2016 ring and the one before? Could be a long time until they win again.
It’s a 9 year $200m deal.
Nope
I was close enough. I want my prize.
7/177
Not surprised. Thanks for the memories and the Chip
I feel Swanson to the Cubs is about as anticlimactic as Trea Turner to the Phillies as i think most of us thought that’s where he would wind up. I can see Eric Hosmer joining him on the north side
I’d rather have him be a Cub than a Cardinal. He’d complete the Cardinals offense and fits in better since he doesn’t need to be the guy.
He’s now the best hitter on the Cubs…and that’s not a good thing
Cards are just fine with Edman at SS. Guys a 5 tool player.
Cards will finish third. Won’t win 80 games.
Cards have Edman. Very underrated player.
You must not know about about Mash Mervis
Don’t understand this signing by the Cubs. Moves Nico to full time 2B. Now Madrigal has no position and are they really much better?
Actually based on what Madrigal has shown so far, yes. At this point, he has to earn playing time and stay healthy.
Much better. Madrigal was a lot sizzle as a prospect now that we’ve seen him there is no steak. Guy swings a wet newspaper and isn’t particularly impressive on d. I would expect him to be moved. Even with his unimpressive time in the bigs they might still be selling high on him.
Madrigal is a backup player or trade bait for a middle reliever. Maybe if Madrigal has an amazing Spring Training he could be in DH mix or take at bats away from Wisdom, but unlikely
Trading Madrigal was one of the Sox’ worse moves in recent history. He was a solid second baseman and a consistently good hitter. Hahn trades him to the cubs in that idiotic trade for Kimbrell, and Madrigal gets one injury after another with the cubs and is ineffective. The Sox haven’t had a 2b man since he left. If he can stay healthy, I’d take him back since Hahn doesn’t seem interested in finding a 2b man for two years now.
I could go full circle with Cubs trading Madrigal back to White Sox for Graveman.
We don’t want Graveman.
I think Graveman would help, but White Sox would have to pay the salary difference. Also ok with trading Madrigal for a prospect.
For a prospect, I’m all in with that. But counting on Graveman is like flipping a coin.
Dogbone still pissed that the Cubs signed Kendall Graveman ahead of the 2019 season, one they knew he would miss because of TJ surgery.
Fact is, Graveman has been a solid back end reliever since recovering from that surgery and also a benign tumor in his spine that forced his transition from a starting pitcher to a reliever. He was more than solid with the Astros in their postseason run to the World Series.
Graveman would instantly become the Cubs closer. Dogbone states that “Graveman is like flipping a coin.”. Guess what? The current state of the Cubs bullpen is that same coin going down a manhole cover.
It’s also hard to believe that Dogbone would question the Cubs receiving Graveman in a trade for one of his least favorite players in MLB, Nick (aka Ronald Torreyes) Madrigal.
@avenger. Personally, I wish the Cubs would just give Madrigal away, BACK TO the Chisox, free of charge.
Most White Sox fans would be thrilled with your proposal. They might even offer southpaw reliever Jake Diekman back to the Cubs, “free of charge”.
You probably won’t like hearing this, but Swanson makes any team he plays for, much better. He’s a club house leader and a clutch player, even when his numbers might not reflect it.
I’m not sure that’s worth 25M per for 7 years
Dansby Swanson was known as ‘The Sheriff’ in the Braves clubhouse. He was the straw that stirred the Braves successful drink over the past five seasons. He’ll bring that same culture to the Cubs as they begin their next window of contention.
5/75?
Stop it. You’re trolling.
Awesome!!! Now AA can wave his magic wand and shock baseball with one of his tricks.
Most local area Middle Georgia baseball analysts called this months ago..
How!? I have no clue, but apparently they had some inside info. awhile back.
Maybe he had already worked out a rough, initial deal, and had already agreed to sign after he finished celebrating his marriage..??
Although the Braves shouldn’t have paid him $200M, I don’t think Grissom is the answer at SS
I don’t think they think he’s the answer either, but Anthopolous keeps winning Exec of the Year finding out that Plan B is often sweeter/better/cheaper than Plan A.
Honesty, that Freeman contract doesn’t look to bad all of a sudden this year. We’ll see how it plays out but maybe they’ve traded their prospects for a SS this off-season and just signed Freddie?
I’ll always feel letting Freeman get away was a mistake. I didn’t like them trading Shea, and they ironically just had to deal another significant package to Oakland to acquire the player Shea will replace there. Those prospects would have been helpful to acquire another SS, and Freeman’s contract wasn’t ridiculous.
I largely trust Anthopolous, but I think at times he can be a little too rigid.
I don’t look at it like they left Freeman get away. They either offered him or would have the most money. He kept shopping the market, gave them a take it or leave it offer and they smartly and rightfully left it. They can’t mess around. Had to get Olsen before someone else did.
The Braves offered more money than what Freeman signed with the Dodgers. It wasn’t the money that prevented the Braves from signing Freddie, it was poor communication by his agents.
The difference here is last year AA had one hole to fill, this year he has two – LF and SS. As it stands now, the Braves are a third place team.
Can AA fill 2 holes at once?
Let’s get his wife on the horn…
The Braves are not doing anything at LF unless they can trade Ozuna and that’s not happening. SS is more of the priority than LF.
Last year we had 2 holes to fill too, CF and 1B.
The Braves only have 1 position to fill this year, because Grissom will be either our SS or LF
@SoCal: Usually agree w/most of your comments here, but not this time. Imo, Grissom is going to be a huge hole at SS and doesn’t have enough bat for left field (a position he’s never played a single mil or ML inning at, btw.) Wash’s magic wand isn’t big enough to fix Grissom’s ugly defense. It only took 54 ML ab’s for the league to figure him out after his debut—-or for him to regress to his true level (your choice here, lol.) Hoping to be totally wrong, but imho counting on Grissom’s the worst decision AA’s made yet—and he’s made his share.
@Braves20 — ATL didn’t just have 1 hole at 1B — you’re forgetting CF was weak with Adam Duvall as the incumbent but not fit for long-term defense. LF/RF both were areas of need with Soler, Rosario, Pedersen reaching FA — and not knowing when Acuña would return from his torn ACL. They also had closer issues with Will Smith that they addressed with a pillow contract for Kenley Jansen, not to mention catching depth (bringing in Manny Piña on a 2-year deal) as William Contreras was a work in progress that they liked his bat and could use as a DH option, as they weren’t sure how much they were going to get from Ozuna who was returning from a long absence (injury, suspension).
All of this on top of trying to do it in a shorter offseason from an expected lockout AND giving attention to pressure from your fanbase to re-sign your franchise icon (Freeman) who was having communication issues with his agent.
Darn!
177 million? That’s a big chunk of money.
With the extra year, not really much more than Baez got from the Tigers.
Exactly. Compare the two players and signing Swanson for 7/177 is much better than Javy for 6/140.
10 years for 220?
7 for 177.
That’s what I was thinking given the current market but the Cubs’ patience paid off, 7/177 is much more team friendly than I thought. I think the Cubs got lucky that the Dodgers never really got deep into it because they’re resetting their tax penalty to go after Ohtani. Also, the fact he wanted to be in Chicago helped.
In this market, I thought for sure it would be $220+. Cubs’ patience paid off. Good signing!
The guy they were always going to get, for similar AAV as what Baez got from Detroit plus a little inflation.
Now spend another $100M and both upgrade either 3B (Drury) or DH/1B/LF (Mancini) and get another starter so Hendricks is the #5 until he proves he is healthy. And bring Chafin back.
7/177? Dansby is good but not at that rate. Wife plays in Chicago and he will be there but that team has holes all over the place.
Javier Baez got 6/140, so basically $23M. With a little inflation, that’s $25M x 7 = $175M.
Swanson is arguably as good as Baez defensively at all the basics of SS other than tagging and off balance throwing. And he has the same or less swing and miss at the plate.
It’s fine. And now we don’t have to see Madrigal try to defend without a shift.
Brick House Coffee Tables Inc;
Dansby is a far, far better player than Baez.
To start with, above all else your SS must have a high baseball IQ, be disciplined in the field, and be consistent.
Samuel, I think Baez has a ridiculously high baseball IQ. But he doesn’t have consistency.
Swanson has been steadily improving. Even if they are equal, this is a good contract for the Cubs. If Swanson is better than Baez the next five years, it will be an excellent contract.
I think the challenge with Swanson is where he plays defensively in years 6 and 7 to match his offensive output. Baez could easily go to CF a la Ray Durham and be fine there.
Brick House Coffee Tables Inc;
I’ve seen Baez play a bit the past 2-3 years.
I’ve seen him do dumb things on the field that not only cost his team runs and outs, but turned the momentum of a game…..and all these silly stats aside, turning momentum is what baseball – like any team sport – is primarily about.
Let me assure you, if you buy a MLB team this year both the Detroit FO people and their fans will happily trade him to you if you just take that contract…..and they may well cover a part of it.
My, my. What is Dansby going to do if wifey is traded?
Duh, I guess they’ll do what they’ve been doing for the last 3 years when she was here and he was in Atlanta. Stupid question. And I doubt the Red Stars trade a star from the USWNT especially when they’re trying to sell the team. Stupid question.
It’s soccer man. Players get transferred and sign deals with others teams far mor often than other sports. She also wasn’t in Chicago for the last three years. She played one season there. Played for New York the season before and was in Washington the season before that.
With him getting 175 million she doesn’t have to play anywhere.
Schiste… Although, he ain’t worth that
Cubs are dolling out a lot of cash and eating contracts
How did the owners get so rich by being so sloppy
Do the Braves have a replacement?
Arcia and Grissom
They always did. With a guy who was almost RotY. This hurts Braves fans, but not really the Braves as a team. They already had a guy who is arguably better. That being said, love the move for the Cubbies.
But now that they’ve set Swanson’s value, they have to extend Hoerner. He won’t get the same money because he’s still arb-eligible and has less track record. But buying out the next five years is a necessity.
Grissom played 41 games, mostly at 2B, and his defense was suspect there. Not exactly ROY. Arcia is 27 and not very good. After 7 seasons in the majors he has amassed a 3.8 WAR total.
WHOA! I thought for sure it would top $200 million! Well done, Jed! Patience paid off. Literally half of what the Correa contract woulda cost. Nice AAV, still plenty of money to spend.
Nice AAV? False. Almost 26 mil a yr is a massive overpay and I’m a big Swanson fan.
I agree DTD, but the Cubs needed a SS now, at least for the next 2 years. No SS coming through the system. Other positions, we’re covered. (I hope, lol).
Doesn’t Nico H. play SS?
Welp – my guess that he would stay with ATL was wrong. If you are a fan of other NL east teams, you won’t miss his bat tormenting you! But ATL still team to beat from this observation deck – and they likely aren’t done tweaking. Neither are their rivals
Just above, above average. The Cubs are better with Swanson than without him.
The competitor in him will not enjoy a Cub’s tenure but he got the bag for sure.
Cubs might start winning soon.
Hate the Braves not getting him, but he’s not worth 25 mil a year… he just isn’t. He might be worth that for 1 or 2 years, but he will not remotely be worth this contract
Said every teams fans who lost a good player in free agency.
So smug . Cubs are still a rebuilding team. One signing isn’t going to take them anywhere near the Cards and Brewers.
Cards no. Brewers absolutely within reach .
At this rate, In 2 years time, almost everyone will be making 20+ a year.
The Braves signed prime Greg Maddux for $28M. Total.
Salaries should be expected to go up by 10-12% a year. Swanson got 177, he essentially replaces Baez who got 140 last year but for one less year.
Turner and Correa better. Bogaerts similar production. Cubs win overall as the drop off is not equal to $100M or 4-6 extra years. Nice move Cubs. In a year where knee jerk signings have festered, waiting out the market pays off here.
But how are they patient if they still overpaid, but not really, really overpaid? They JUST got out of a Heyward contract that is quite familiar (8/$184M). You’d think they’d have been a little more gun shy, especially with as much offense as they need.
2-3 million aav too much but over 7 years that’s not the end of the world. Doing this for 10 would of been a disaster
Are you saying that bogaerts has similar production to Swanson? Or to Turner/Correa? Lol cause dansby is nowhere near the other 3
I am saying he’s probably a 22 million dollar a year player signed to reasonable years. The other 3 are probably 30 million dollar players signed for 5-7 years too long.
@CJML I’m a huge fan of the Turner signing for Philly, but I still agree with your statement 100%.
Had this one. Nice to see the Cubbies spending some cash. Nice improvements this offseason.
Any else notice that all the big deals so far contain no opt outs and full NTC. These guys want to be where they signed as long as they play.
Good observation/point!
And, NTC’s really mean the player will control if/when he moves…if things don’t go as expected.
No opt out only benefits the team. Players demanding no opt out is only a marketing ploy.
No team is giving a player an opt out without saving at least SOME money upfront.
Yay! Add this to my list of correct predictions! Congratulations, Cubs.
We need proof!
Ahhh shoot! I initially had him going to the Cubs but then switched it before the deadline. Crap, scratch it off the list.
That’s where his wife plays right?
Correct. I suspected any Chicago team would have a bit of an edge just for that alone.
Jeff blauser 2.0
I guess winning one WS was enough for him.
Only seen that post about 6 times. Try again.
Good signing for Cubs, they are now on the rebuild, Let’s play two!!
They’ve been on the rebuild for the last three years. So much for that dynasty the media guzzled about.
I don’t know but making the NLCS multiple years straight and winning a World Series make it clear they were doing something right!
Both out of nowhere and completely expected. An extra $30M above the projection. Good for him. Also par for the off season’s bloated deals.
HOFer at the bank at least
The good news is now Atlanta for certain can put the Swanson time to bed and figure out the rest of the off season.
I knew when they didn’t re sign him during the season that Swanson wasn’t going be a Braves. Sad to see him go but he is not worth that money to Atlanta.
Cubs got better, and they have the payroll room to handle the deal. All big time free agents are overpaid, as it is simply a part of the game. Very happy the Phils got Trea and not Dansby, as the swing and miss for Swanson was not a good fit for the makeup of the Phils squad. But the Cubs got a very good defensive SS who will add plenty at the plate for a while. Happy to see them take a step up in the mix in the Central with this move.
Not all. Just most.
Seeing the Bogaerts contract this one really doesn’t seem all that bad
Deal of a lifetime compared to Bogaerts.
Kind of a bargain compared to the deals that Correa, Turner, and Boagarts received.
If I’m a Cubs I like this deal and if I’m a Giants I’m thinking, is Correa really worth double what Swanson is getting here? They could’ve signed Bassitt and Swanson for 2/3 what they paid Correa.
I’d bet real money, and not just a tiny one, that the Cubs get more WAR/$$$ than either Bogaerts or Correa,
Lol, $25M for him a year, wtf, the Cubs just got the second coming of Heyward. Low end hitter, who will only get worse as time goes on
Seen it coming. They didn’t sign him during the season and never really gave a serious offer during the offseason similar to what they did to Freeman. They were never serious about resigning him in my opinion.
They were very serious, but realistic. They know him best, which is why they continued to work through his offensive struggles that ultimately paid off in the last few years of him putting it altogether. But they can’t forget what they know when putting that offer together…
That being said, I hope Swanson buys Wash the nicest of Rolexes – as he did wonders for his career.
He isn’t worth that money, this is a dumpster fire deal like Heyward, didn’t realize they wanted to quickly replace the money they burned with Heyward on someone else, lol.
This is a good deal for the Cubs. $25M is not a lot for a premium, non-AS SS, and 7 years is not old.
And this is a position that fits really well.
He will be 35 at the end of the deal and the deal is trash for a light hitting SS
Yes! This is fantastic news! Now assuming this isn’t the last piece there’s a chance on competing for that last Wild Card spot. Division is still a long shot.
I don’t think they’re very far from the Cards.
I hope you’re right, but we still lack a catcher, a first baseman, 3rd baseman, DH. Wisdom can be a decent option at one of those 3 but we don’t have a bonafide Ace on the rotation and they stole our All-Star catcher. Jed has to make some moves still even to keep us in the WC race.
I think the cubs rotation might be better than the Cardinals. The defense is getting a lot closer. It will be an interesting season. They still need another catcher and a bat.
Lol, compete for the Wild Card? Lol. Please, you don’t have a pitcher who would slot in as a top 2 on a contender. Now you pay $25M to a SS who had his best year and will never get any better than this. 115 OPS+ is the best he has ever had. He also hit 6th, His 447 slugging was the best of all players last year on the team, lol.
Yup, to reiterate for serious baseball folk in here, this signals more moves are coming which will put them in contention for the 3rd wild card spot in July.
They’ll be playing for the NL Central crown this year.
As will the Cardinals, Brewers, Reds and Pirates.
Four4fore;
Only the Brewers.
Sadly true.
For the Braves, with AA as their GM, it would not shock me if they did something so out of the blue that shocks everyone, off the cuff, like Bo Bichette and Olveris Martinez (Jays Nr 2 prospect) and change for Acuna and Grissom. Or something along those lines. Time will tell but i wonder if the Braves really roll out with Grissom as their starting SS.
Grissom had a really strong 2022, and honestly, before this season Swanson’s track record wasn’t that long either. I think the Braves will absolutely roll with Grissom.
Dansby was a $16-17mm AAV player before this season. Had a great contract year and cashed in. Low OBP, very good but not great defensively. You have to wonder how the end of the shift will affect him (and all IF).
@TennVol
How and why would the Braves trade Acuna or Grissom? That is just not going to happen, Grissom has played all of 41 games at the MLB level. He hasn’t been sent to Ron Washington to work out in the off-season for nothing. Grissom has the ability, whether he will make it as a SS is another thing, but it won’t be for lack of effort and putting in the required dedication, that is why I love guys like this, they’re not sitting around thinking they’re the best, they’re doing everything in their power to play to the best of their ability, no matter where that is on the diamond or whatever position it is.
Swanson was already good, but he improved the extra 20% under Ron Washington. The other thing that cannot be underestimated is the influence & instruction of Seitzer on Swanson’s hitting ability, his improved 20+ HR the past two seasons and increased RBI’s & extra base hits is down to Seitzer. His slugging and OPS the past two years are about where they will sit for his career. His career BA is .255 now, I don’t see that improving to say .265 or .270. He’s just a good consistent player and gives 100% everyday which is all you can ask.
Well darn it… looks like I’m a second baseman again 🙁
They were already a 90 win team without him. His signing puts them at 95+
Lol idk about that but I appreciate the optimism.
All the other shortstops got 10+ years. Cubs have him from his age 28-35 season while the others will be getting $25 million+ when they’re 40.
In this market, this is a pretty short contract.
I’m very pleased.
Sorry this was to the wrong thread
Good signing, but for a bit too much and too long. With this type of money, why not get a real superstar like Rodon, et al? No trade clauses, op-outs…Cubs are giving them whatever they want, so there is no reason why the additions should not have been bigger names. What happens to Nicky now?
Rodon will spend more time in doctors offices and rehab than he will on the mound.
All the other shortstops got 10+ years. Cubs have him from his age 28-35 season while the others will be getting $25 million+ when they’re 40.
In this market, this is a pretty short contract.
I’m very pleased.
I’m depressed. Fire AA
Why? This is not going to be a good K.
Time to get some help for LF. I have trust these guys will figure it out.
I hate to see Dansby go but this, along with almost every other contract so far, was a massive overpay. 7 yrs is pretty reasonable but 25 mil a yr is insane.
He was worth $50.8m last year by fWAR.
Lol, games are played on the field, in real life. Made up stats are irrelevant.
Weren’t all stats “made up” at some point in time? I don’t understand your statement here.
WAR and FIP cannot be proven. There is absolutely no way to determine what a replacement level player is because all players aren’t involved in the same situation, on the same team, or against the same team simultaneously. That’s the only way to truly determine that. FIP is just ridiculous in general because fielding is involved for every pitcher in every game. Your stats like average, obp, runs, rbi, errors, era, whip, k/bb ratio, errors, etc are determined on the field so they aren’t made up. Those things are actually happening.
Just because you don’t understand what goes into FIP and WAR doesn’t mean that they can’t be proven.
Batting average is more of a made up stat; the denominator is ABs, which completely disregards BBs (because reasons) while still factoring Ks (because reasons).
WAR and FIP can’t be proven, they’re both hypotheticals. If you can’t understand batting average then that’s just sad because it’s about as basic as it gets. OBP factors in the walks. Ks result in an out which obviously effects the average. Very poor post.
Good…this means Chaim is not panic signing Dansby. Kinda just leaves Devers as the panic overpay.
Cubs overpaid hes good but not great better then what they haf before though so Thats a win i guess
I can’t wait until Swanson retires. Nothing against the dude, I just prefer not to hear about that godforsaken trade every time his name is brought up lol.
Shelby Miller about to get a cy young with the dodgers this year
Crazy but at least it’s not 11 or 13 years, but still insane. A good player but not a superstar
As a Sox fan, this is a terrific deal for the Cubs. I still think Bogaerts was the best player available, but this is great value. I wish my team’s FO wasn’t garbage and cheap cause the Cubs sign guys the Sox could use (i.e. Suzuki, Taillon, Stroman, etc.) and aren’t afraid to put a decent product on the field. Bryzzo is correct, the Sox ARE a small market team playing in a large market and they only have themselves to blame. They had to perfect opportunity to sign Harper in 2019 and start cutting into that market share, but nope. Just like the Bulls, “cheap” is the better way for Renisdorf teams to travel. 2023 might not yet be a Cub playoff team, but 2024 and beyond look really good. I like their pitching prospects too.
Right, Reinsdorf is the common denominator. Both the Bulls and the White Sox SHOULD be better, should be in at the top of the market every year signing top free agents in their prime, but JR’s loyalty to his pocketbook and his inept buddies he hires to run things has made both the Bulls and the Sox underwhelming and irrelevant.
Yeah, I can see the plan now. They have a decent staff of guys that give up a lot weak contact as opposed to big K guys, so putting a strong defense (especially up the middle) makes sense. They still have plenty of money to spend and a deep farm (Top 7 at last check) so they seem on the right track.
Yes, Madrigal unfortunately is the odd man out after this signing. I’ve read multiple reports that he i