The Orioles have acquired left-handed pitcher Cole Irvin in a trade with the Athletics, per announcements from both clubs. Right-handed pitching prospect Kyle Virbitsky will also head to Baltimore while infield prospect Darell Hernaiz is heading to the A’s.
On one hand, this move comes as a surprise, since there had been no previous indication the A’s were shopping Irvin or that they were talking to the Orioles. On the other hand, it’s not shocking to see the club continue tearing down the roster, since they’ve been aggressively committed to that path for the past year. Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt were all traded just before the 2022 campaign, while Frankie Montas was dealt midseason and Sean Murphy this winter.
With the club seemingly willing to strip the roster down to the studs, any established Oakland player is at least a speculative trade candidate. There was no real rush to move Irvin, since he still had four years of club control remaining, but he will qualify for arbitration at the end of this season and would start to make a more significant salary. It appears that they received an offer they liked enough to pull the ripcord early and jettison Irvin from the roster in yet another future-focused move.
The Orioles have been looking for rotation upgrades all winter and were reportedly still on the hunt earlier this week. They haven’t been running out huge payrolls in recent years so Irvin’s low salary and years of cheap control were surely appealing to them. They made one modest upgrade to their rotation this offseason by signing veteran Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $10MM deal but have otherwise been quiet until today. Irvin will quickly become the club’s second-most experienced starter behind Gibson.
Irvin, 29 next week, was a Phillies’ draftee and made his MLB debut with them. He made 19 appearances over 2019 and 2020 but with a bloated 6.75 ERA in that time. But his minor league results were much better and the A’s took a shot by sending cash considerations to Philadelphia to get him. The change of scenery went very well for him, as he made 62 starts over the past two seasons with a 4.11 ERA over 359 1/3 innings.
This new change of scenery will have risk for the O’s, though. Irvin has succeeded in Oakland over the past couple of years with a low-strikeout, pitch-to-contact approach. He’s only walked 5.2% of the batters he’s faced over those two campaigns, which is a very strong number. For reference, the league average for starters last year was 7.5%. But he’s only punched out hitters at a 16.8% rate for Oakland, well below last year’s 21.6% league average. His 37.6% ground ball over that span was also a bit below par. That kind of profile has worked for him in the pitcher-friendly confines of Oakland Coliseum but might not be as effective in different conditions. It’s perhaps notable that Irvin has posted a 3.44 ERA at home over the past two years but a 4.88 mark outside of Oakland.
The O’s are apparently undeterred by those splits and have added Irvin to their starting mix, where he and Gibson should take two of the spots. The rest of the rotation will be less certain, with options like Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Bruce Zimmermann, Mike Baumann and Spenser Watkins on the 40-man. Each of those guys have a bit of MLB experience but inconsistent results have prevented them from truly establishing themselves as big leaguers. There’s also Grayson Rodriguez, who is considered one of the best pitching prospects in the sport but he’s yet to make his MLB debut and missed most of last year due to a lat strain. John Means could be a factor down the line but likely not until midseason due to undergoing Tommy John surgery in April of last year. It’s a group with a lot of unknowns but the club will hope to get some reliability out of Irvin and Gibson while they sort through the rest and see who separates themselves from the pack. In addition to Irvin, the O’s will add Virbitsky to their system. The 24-year-old was a 17th round draft pick in 2021. He posted a 4.63 ERA last year between Class-A and High-A, striking out 25.7% of batters faced while walking 5.5%. He’ll add some starting depth to the lower levels of their system.
By letting go of Irvin and Virbitsky, the A’s are adding an intriguing young player in Hernaiz. The 21-year-old was a fifth-round selection of the O’s in 2019. Baseball America ranked him the #25 Orioles prospect going into 2020, highlighting his athleticism but noting that the lack of power could be an issue for him. That seems to have played out in his minor league time so far. After the minors were canceled in 2020, Hernaiz spent 2021 in Class-A, hitting six home runs in 94 games. He did steal 22 bases but his .277/.333/.358 batting line was a bit below average, with his wRC+ coming in at 92. In 2022, he shot up three levels, going from Class-A to High-A and Double-A. He got into 105 games between those three levels and stole 32 bases with 12 home runs. His combined batting line of .273/.341/.438 resulted in a 112 wRC+. He’s split his time between second base, third base and shortstop and will slot into Oakland’s infield prospect mix. He struggled in his first 13 Double-A games and will likely head back to that level to start this season. He’ll be Rule 5 eligible at the end of the upcoming season.
The O’s have plenty of infield prospects, with the likes of Gunnar Henderson, Coby Mayo, Joey Ortiz, Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg and Connor Norby some of the exciting youngsters in the system. It seems they felt they could part with Hernaiz and still be in good shape there, whereas the A’s have continued to bolster their farm by subtracting from their major league club. Without Irvin, their rotation will consist of offseason signees Shintaro Fujinami and Drew Rucinski, incumbents Paul Blackburn and James Kaprielian, as well as a huge pile of unestablished options who will be jockeying for playing time as the season rolls along.
Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the deal before the official announcement (Twitter links).
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Good for Baltimore to get a solid guy like him! Congrats Baltimore fans!
Cole get too expensive?
Let’s see the return.
He wasn’t even arb-eligible yet. Maybe, they miscalculated?
It was inexplicable, Irvin was one of the 2 main candidates for our automatic all-star representative and they traded him and another prospect for the Orioles 25th ranked prospect…
More like the Orioles #17 prospect, for those in the know.
Always liked Cole Irvin, I hope he finds success in Baltimore
He is a very underrated pitcher, good that he is on a possible contending team.
How can a guy with a career -1.6 WPA be “very underrated”?
He produces quality starts, if you watch him, he’s actually fun to watch.
I like him too and feel bad that we’re sending him to a hitter’s park in probably the best offensive division in baseball right at the beginning of his arbitration process. Hopefully he can pull it off.
Actually, they moved left and left center back quite a bit and raised the fence before last season. That made it a bit more of a pitcher’s park. It had some guys watching balls out of the batters box that would have been HRs in the past, hit the wall. Maybe that is what they are thinking with him being a lefty.
Yup, that’s what they’re thinking
Finally! It’s about time we added a decent SP. And without giving up a top prospect. Great job, Mr. Elias!!!
Now can we add one more veteran SP before Spring Training?
Wacha?
Just don’t let him pitch against Seattle. They have history. And it never ended well for him.
As an M’s fan. I’m sad to see Irvin go to another team. Going to miss seeing Seattle rock him hard on a regular basis.
A’s rid themselves of a below average LH SP and a minor leaguer who is most likely destined to be an organizational arm and nothing more more a decent prospect who can play multiple positions. Not a bad trade.
“rid themselves of a below average LH SP” 181 innings with only 25 homeruns given up by a soft tosser with an ERA under 4 on a below .500 team really is a bane on an organization.
Same pitcher who lead the league in hits allowed the year prior
He had a 4.90 ERA outside of the coliseum though and didn’t generate too many strikeouts. The AL east might not too kind to him.
I agree. Cole and the NL East may not go too well. Fortunately for the O’s, Cole is not the key to their success. I expect the O’s to be in 3rd in the division with a winning record.
Why is there such an infatuation over pitchers getting strikeouts? Keeping runs off the scoreboard no matter how the outs are recorded seems like a better goal than worry about how many strikeouts a pitcher has.
Considering he’s a developing player with 4 years of club control I wouldn’t be too worried about his career statistics, he did quite well last year.
Normally I would agree with this statement, but with the new shift rules I would imagine his BABIP to increase if not skyrocket.
ERA+ of 96 over two years in Oakland. ERA+ of 91 for his career…yes, below league average is accurate.
Only Dean Kremer had a higher ERA+ over last season from all their starters. Their bullpen was elite, but their 102 ERA+ largely came from there. Vote had a 92 ERA+ over the full season, but he was better for Baltimore. Still, 94 is better than what they have in their rotation, so it improves their rotation.
I’d go out on a limb and say about half the players in MLB are below average. Irvin has a lot of company.
Quite a bold and controversial statement @WampumWalloper
Exactly half are below the median, but exactly half do not need to be below average.
A team like Oakland doesn’t need to rid itself of a cheap and controllable starter.
A’s were worried that they might have a better record than the Red Sox
Seems like the A’s gave away Irvin. There must be something more to the package unless Hernaiz is uber talented.
Hernaiz is ranked #16 in the Orioles prospect list (MLB) while Virbitsky is not in the Orioles top 30.
Hernaiz is actually pretty good, an under-the-radar pickup. I quite like the return for Oakland.
He barely played in AA and needs to be added to the 40 man after the season or he’s rule 5 eligible. He was blocked in the O’s system anyway.
I hope John Fisher goes to the moon on a one way trip
At @Geoffg – you and me both. I’ll pay for the trip
Is this for effing real? We’re giving up a solid number 4 and change for the Orioles number 16? This is nuts.
I love my dirty cheap A’s to bits and understand the need to have the three years up, three years down cycle. But this is frankly effing stupid.
Perhaps Sold low on Irvin but the move is really to Clear out a Rotation spot for: Sears, Waldichuck, Puk or Muller.
Rotation is currently comprised of Blackburn, Kaprelian, Fujinami, Rucinski and one of the 4 Lefties above.
@GangGreen23
Appreciate the point and the idea, and I admit I always had a soft spot for Irvin ever since he went 7 innings clean against Kershaw in a ST game a couple of years ago.
My very big annoyance about this is that he isn’t Cy Young, but where do we guarantee 150+ innings from all the guys (you rightly) suggest?
Of all the guys you mention none of them have the proven durability. I like Blackburn, I like Kaprelian but durability when we’re rebuilding buys you the spot starts for the new guys.
I’m still dribbling with annoyance so I apologise for this response too….
@A’sfaninLondonUK the A”s are going to beat other teams in 2023 about 65 times whether they have Irvin or not. The A’s have more than 5 much more intriguing arms with higher ceilings than Irvin. I’m not seeing the reason why they wouldn’t trade him for someone that might help them win more than 65 games in 2025 and beyond.
Baltimore has a strong system. Their #16 is better than some #6’s.
Surely they’ll all stay healthy… I expect over 200 innings from Puk.
I don’t see Puk starting for the A’s. He had success as a bullpen piece last season, and he hasn’t even started a game in MLB yet, has he? I know he was a first round pick, so I was surprised when I noticed on B-R that he had never started.
I dislike fisher but this trade has nothing to do with payroll. This is all on forst and the front office.
Virbitsky is from the A’s
Virbitsky got traded from Oakland to Baltimore, not the other way around. That’s why you dont see him in the Orioles top 30.
Yep, I figured that out. The A’s got fleeced even more.
Irvin had 62 starts the past 2 seasons, he pitched a lot of innings with an ERA around 4. Seems like they could’ve done much better with every trade they’ve made this offseason.
Saw a lot of him in Philly and AAA before he went to the A’s. The home cookin’ at the Colosseum is a real help for Irvin; it will be interesting to see how he handles the AL East now. Hard to see him as much more than a 5th starter anywhere with his stuff. As he starts to get more expensive his value drops quite a bit. Great kid, but the A’s are selling at a good time, as they can get similar production from another youngster with that home stadium edge and repeat the process.
Sometimes these crafty, soft-tossing lefties become something better than projected as they refine their craft, but not often. He has no margin for error.
He does have 4 years of control left. They could have waited to deal him at a better rate.
Yes – he has 4 years of control left, however they also know that there is downside risk as well. What if Irvin tanks this year? How many times do we hear folks say “why didn’t they trade him at peak value (even if there isn’t much of a peak value for this type of pitcher).
The A’s front office must really like the prospect to pull the trigger. For some crazy reason, many teams place different values on individual prospects that are not easily looked up in the ranking services. He might be someone that they think that they can develop into something more than “some random 16th ranked system prospect”.
In a couple years I think this is a trade will be seen as one that both teams won.
Hernaiz jumped 3 levels and was significantly younger than his peers. That was an incredible draft year for the O’s as the 1st and 2nd rounders were back to back #1 prospects. Power and speed showing to couple w his well documented glove. He’ll be a player that I’ll look fwd to following at the Coliseum.
Hernaiz played in three levels, “jumping” two
Yeah, Irvin has already peaked, with a little help from the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. It’s probably downhill from here for a guy who doesn’t miss many bats. Although Camden is now so tough for right-handed hitters that he may have a couple of decent seasons there.
Hernaiz is not “some random 16th ranked prospect. He is a legit potential every day MLB SS. Like someone else said, he’s more like a #6 league-wide, Good acquisition.
Lol. In other news, somehow the Os have so much depth even after graduating Adley that Francisco Alvarez doesn’t even show up on their top catching prospects. Solid news.
Another stupid trade. Forst is a terrible gm
I’ll bet he’s happy he doesn’t have to face the M’s 5 times anymore lol
Great move for the O’s
Nice
#15. prospect in O’s system.
Darell Hernaiz, 2B/3B/SS, 21, Double-A
When Hernaiz was drafted in the 5th round out of Puerto Rico in 2019, the reports were all about projection and upside. Hernaiz delivered on that upside in his 60 games at High-A Aberdeen, slashing .305/.377/.456, while stealing 22 bases in 25 attempts and collecting 21 extra base hits, look for him to continue to shoot up the rankings.
So Benscome bumps to Bowie?
Bencosme barely played at A+. Prieto is still in AA.
You really think they’ll move Prieto off 2B to SS? Why do you think that?
Perhaps he jumps or he stalls out. He couldn’t hit AA pitching at all in a very limited sample.
Perhaps the O’s FO saw a big hole in his swing that was now exploited with better comp.
Worthwhile gamble for both sides though.
Strow, possibly peaked, yep. But I feel also, it speaks to their intrigue with Bencosme. How old is that kid anyway. 18? He looks 15. LOL
Major League pitching is cheap right now because it’s more plentiful. The best part of the new deadball era is we’re not seeing as many pitcher injuries as in years prior.
You’re joking right? I don’t have the exact stats but arm injuries are everywhere. The Tigers used 18 starting pitchers last year because of their injuries alone!
And my dodgers had a few injuries them self so what is this guy talking about
Oh wow mr shy guy, your small sample size anecdotal evidence must be accurate. Let’s ignore the actual stats because 2 strangers on the internet think that feels wrong. You guys could always look this stuff up before expressing your opinion.
Maybe you should check the numbers before you respond and you wouldn’t sound so ignorant.
2022 had less Tommy John surgeries than 2020’s half season. I bet if fangraphs had more data going back further it would show a big jump from 2017-19.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to notice this stuff. Are you saying 2022 was worse for arm injuries compared to the juiced ball era or do you think they’re the same?
Tommy John surgeries aren’t the only arm injuries for pitchers. Forearm strains and elbow injuries are others before you get to non-arm injuries like lat strains.
Maybe look deeper than just Tommy John surgeries. A lot of pitchers were hitting the IL last season.
Hey reds fan
I’m aware that arm injuries and TJS aren’t synonymous but I don’t care enough about what you guys think to prove my point with hours of research.
My point still stands and until I’m corrected with facts it makes more sense than the nonsense you guys have put forward about the juiced ball era not increasing arm injuries.
I encourage everyone to do their own research and correct me where I’m factually incorrect. I’m glad to see you jump in this conversation though. I was worried when 5 minutes went by without you offering your uninformed opinion
I’ll happily do the research to show where you are factually incorrect.
You stated “Maybe you should check the numbers before you respond and you wouldn’t sound so ignorant.
2022 had less Tommy John surgeries than 2020’s half season.”
There were actually 70 Tommy John surgeries in 2020, whereas there were 95 in 2022. Seven of those surgeries were for position players, so that makes 88 TJS for pitchers in 2022. 88 is a larger number than 70, so you are factually incorrect.
You can verify this information via Tommy John Surgery List @ MLB Player Analysis, which tracks Tommy John surgeries back to 1974 (the year Tommy John first had the surgery). No hours of research necessary there.
What a mess that dude is…jeez….
According to your own stats there were 67 TJS in 2020 and 94 in 2022. When you account for a per game basis. It means there were more injuries in 2020.
In 2019, during the juiced ball era, we saw over 100 Tommy John surgery.
Looks like increased usage from a live ball increases pitcher injuries.
Thank you for pointing out a bigger and more accurate database to prove my point.
Timrubies you’re not that dumb
considering the amount of games played in 2020 were much less than other years, it does show a decrease in arm injuries vs usage.
when someone looks into 2019 and prior that numbers get even more noticeable. You’d have to be pretty stupid to not see how more homeruns leads to more pitcher injuries
I would toss out 2020 in any comparisons because of the oddity of the season. Pitchers started to stretch out, ended up at home for months, quickly resumed, and never got to full capacity. Arm injuries seem a natural result.
Yeah i would toss out 2020 too but when you look at 2018 and 2019 numbers they become even more pronounced.
The deadball era is seeing less tommy johns compared to the 2017-19 era. It’s not even close.
@tim
your google spreadsheet proves what Joey Bart is saying. The 2017-19 era had way more TJS. Its pretty easy to see in the stats
Okay, well Spotrac show 37.4K games lost due to injury for pitchers in 2019, 31.8K games lost in 2021, and 30.7K games lost in 2020. So JBF MVP was correct when he state/implied that pitchers are getting injured less over the past three full seasons.
You would also have to be stupid to not realize that babying pitchers with pitch counts and such has led to more pitcher injuries but that doesn’t fit your premise of juiced ball bad.
I personally think it is getting worse not better. It’s not just Tommy John but other injuries as well.
By the way, the damn ball should be the damn ball, I agree. I didn’t agree with juiced players or a juiced ball. Some of my best friends are pitchers.
Well according to fangraphs 2020 had less but your stats actual prove my point Tim rubies.
Thanks for posting that because it makes my point even more valid. The deadball has decreased TJS.
Hahaha dense MF
Also, claiming cause and effect of juiced balls increasing TJ surgeries is specious. There is no evidence to prove causality.
Your claim is specious. Look that up.
No evidence exists to support your spurious claim
You have to be pretty dense to not know that a juiced ball leads to more pitcher injuries. I have no idea why anyone would argue this. No matter what data you use, it’s easy to see pitcher injuries are down from 20171-19.
anyone sticking up for manfreds juiced ball is just a troll.
It’s raining,
A man got murdered.
See! Proof that the man got murdered because it’s raining!
Great pick up for the O’s…
Wow OAK must quite like Hernaiz.
He seems like Acuña Jr in terms of power and speed. Maybe that means Laureano can be traded with a reliever for Acuna’s brother.
Solid trade for both teams IMO. Glad we get to give guys like Muller, Waldichuk, and Sears more of an opportunity.
Reasonable value-for-value trade, although trading a decent starting pitcher for a “suspect” seems a little light on the A’s end. The O’s pick up an innings-eating SP and the A’s build for the future. Win-win.
I thought it was light for the A’s at first based on how expensive SP have been in free agency this offseason and the 4 years of control, but after looking at the numbers more I think the home/road splits were factored into the cost for the O’s.
The other factor is the A’s are so cost conscious they’re not going to want to pay Irvin when he’s arbitration eligible next year and his salary starts increasing. Sad reality is those 4 years of control aren’t worth as much to Oakland when 3 of them are Arb years.
The Jays always struggle against this guy (and soft-tossing lefties in general). Seems like a reasonable trade.
Is it irony that Cole Irvin was described as the #1 lock for Oakland’s 2023 rotation just three days ago?
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/athletics-rumors-starting-rotation.html
A’s have pretty decent depth for starting pitching so a trade was coming at some point.
1st thing Cole says to Baltimore’s brass, thanks for saving me
Reactionary trade after signing Fujinami. Seems like they gave Irvin away to the first team that asked nicely.
It seems to me that most people should be happy that both teams are trying to improve their club.
In no way whatsoever does this trade improve the Oakland A’s .
Not yet. Be patient.
Irvin will be reworked by Elias. I’m sure that pitch mix will be reduced and changed. The big righty we got back will probably immediately be shifted to the pen.
Have to trust in our leadership. Hernaiz isn’t a bad spect for Oakland to pick up in this. He’s buried in Baltimore though.
BStrowman;
Not by Ellis but by the coaching staff. No doubt they see something in the way he pitches that can be fine tuned.
The article got it all wrong…..
A pitch to contract guy is perfect for the O’s because they make sure their position players can all play D. As for not pitching in the Oakland Coliseum – he’ll be playing his home games in a park with a deep LF wall. When the opposition stacks their RH hitters up against him they can pull fly balls to death valley where usually Hays – a CF playing LF – can track them down.
This is an extremely bright organization.
@Samuel
I agree…I think that Irvin has a chance to shine on the O’s. You don’t hold serve the way he did on the ‘21 and ‘22 A’s unless you’ve got “the makeup” of a big league starter.
Irvin does give up a fair number of hits but is very stingy with the walks. Even a glance at his other basic stats from 2021 show there was something good happening there (without even digging into the advanced stuff).
I think the O’s saw an opportunity to grab a potential solid mid-rotation guy at what was an agreeable cost (a solid/rising prospect stuck behind a string of top 100 guys).
Strow, Sam and Wmann. Sweet pick up, desperately needed a lefty SP with Means on the DL, Hall erratic and Rom’s growth questionable.
Love Cole’s size, his age, team control and … drum role … minimal injury history. (got his obligatory TJ surgery out of the way while still in college. I’d say quite successfully). Cheers.
@samuel
Yeah, I meant the coaching staff. I typically refer to it as Elias’ org but you are correct.
Seems like a good move for both teams. While Oakland Coliseum is still more pitcher friendly, Camden yards did adjust its right field wall. Irvin definitely improved on the numbers batting against him. Not to mention back to back 30+ starts seasons for a team whose ace (John Means) is talented but has had trouble with the injury bug. Hernaiz was kind of buried behind some more highly touted prospects that are expected to be bigger pieces of the future than he was going to be but he’s still extremely young with some good talent.
Left field, not right field wall at the Yards was moved back. Hopefully far back enough that it benefits Irvin and that other soft tosser lefty Means as well.
ah youre right typo on my part on the right wall. But yeah even though it hurts the offense a bit the O’s biggest issue has always been pitching.
A’s gonna break the all time loss record this year?
I doubt it but they are giving it their best effort to do so.
Very nice for Baltimore. I like this trade.
Looks like a solid trade for the O’s..Not a fan of theirs, but they are a fun team to watch..Hoping they can get one more reliable arm, and make a run this year.
The A’s in recent years seems to have taken some downturn in evaluating draft picks and trades
A’s got a great prospect in return. Works well for both teams. A’s get a young uber talented prospect that is behind a few other prospects in Os farm for a lefty with team control and a pulse.
Agreed on this. It’s important to keep in mind that Hernaiz would have had to play otherworldly to get from being stuck behind the other O’s prospects.
Irvin wasn’t going to move the needle for the A’s over the next few years with their current rebuild and would be a costly keep (by their standards) as he moves along through arbitration over the next few years.
This strikes me as the type of trade where the Orioles are raising their floor currently/over the next few years at the expense of some future potential and the A’s are doing the opposite…sacrificing some of their current floor (in a year where they aren’t competing anyway) to potential have a higher ceiling later if Hernaiz continues to rise through the minors.
Well said
Oakland keeps getting ripped off.
Irvin was competitive in almost every start and seemed to increase his strikeout ability as the season went on. Obviously much better at home as he pitched to contact in most cases and that worked better in Oakland. He was a success for the organization being a purchase from Philly and convert to a acceptable starter. A’s have traded for a good number of starting pitches but still weak on position players. So any help is needed. Many of the A’s top minor league pitchers are lefties so trading Irvin should be no surprise.
I’m not surprised to see a “pitcher like that” get traded out of our division 🙂
Oakland was going to have to dump someone for Aguilar anyways…. so they dumped a pitcher that is MEH and got a prospect.
Not sure why everyone is shocked.. A’s have a lot of young pitching prospects that need starts and innings to be evaluated. Irvin takes up a lot of those starts. I’m sure he would not have ended up with a great w-l record this year with what the A’s are going to field, so sell high now.
If that’s what high is…
Don’t think we would’ve gotten much more value than what we got. So i like the trade.
“Down to the studs” and “pulled the ripcord”. Nice prose. Love this site
He gave up 19 HR’s in 13 starts and 75 IP away from Oakland last year.
This should play out well pitching out of Camden against the AL East.
Worried about the O’s already? Very telling.
I was born in 85’…..outside of Minny I don’t think there is a team I worry less about. Harsh but true.
I do love driving down the turnpike and getting crab cakes while watching Gleyber look like the superstar we thought he would become for a weekend series though :p
This isn’t your Boomer’s Camden: left field wall was moved back and is pitcher friendly for LHP.
Yankee Stadium and Fenway are tough spots for pitchers prone to the long ball. And Torontos collection of young studs from the right side should feast off him. That’s more what I was thinking.
Fair point, but scheduling changes in 2023 means only 52 divisional games, down from 76, with most of that difference resulting in more inter-league games. That means 26 road games in the AL East, 6 at Tampa Bay (It’s 7/6 splits H/A in-division, rotating), so that leave 20 road games against NY, Boston and Toronto, of which Irvin would pitch four. Last year, he pitched one road games against those three teams, so this year he would pitch three additional. Last year too, for context, his road games included three against Houston and one against Philadelphia, as well as three against the Angels, and none in pitcher-friendly Seattle. All said, he will face tougher lineups (though Boston doesn’t look great) than he did, and might pitch in a few more hitter friendly parks, but the difference in 2023 will be less than it would have been had the unbalanced schedules remained the same.
We’ve got a dozen SP competing for 5 spots. Cole was expendable, wish him the best of luck in the AL East.
Hernaiz’s power/speed combo is intriguing. Another strange trade but we’ve rebuilt playoff teams several times over so I’ll give the FO the benefit of the doubt on this one.
Gotta love that framing in the last sentence, “… unestablished options.”
It would literally be easier to just write “prospects” since, you know, all of those unestablished options are indeed prospects.
Except for Adam Oller, he’s not a prospect.
Guess Wacha won’t be signing in Baltimore now.
Meanwhile, Oakland keeps surprising people with these trades.. or then again, maybe not.
Voth and Kremer don’t get any respect put on their names and their performances last year. Jobs are theirs to lose. I like Bradish for the last spot out the gate.
Tyler Wells has done everything they asked him to do, including pitch to contact to lower his pitch counts, He deserves the chance to come out of the gate built up and attacking hitters.
I hope he gets one of the spots
Bradish is likely the OD starter, aka #1.
I love Bradish but I don’t think he gets the ball on OD.
Probably Gibby or even I guess, Irvin. Feels like Gibson even though he’s definitely not the #1. Kremer earned a look too with his full year performance last season.
If they start Gibson on OD it is because of his signing of a FA contract, not his ability.
Not bad. I’m impressed as well as surprised.
“Baseball America ranked him the #25 Orioles prospect going into 2020, highlighting his athleticism but noting that the lack of power could be an issue for him. That seems to have played out in his minor league time so far. After the minors were canceled in 2020, Hernaiz spent 2021 in Class-A, hitting six home runs in 94 games. He did steal 22 bases but his .277/.333/.358 batting line was a bit below average, with his wRC+ coming in at 92.”
Let me get this straight….
Someone working at Baseball America either saw….or looked at some statistics…..or talked to a scout…or some combination of the aforementioned and concluded that: “the lack of power could be an issue for” Mr. Hernaiz.
The young man was 18 years-old at the time!
He isn’t going to grow? He isn’t going to get stronger – maybe far stronger than most pitchers his age will as they get older?
I proudly say I seldom look at Baseball America or most other so-called (publicly available) MLB scouting evaluators; and about the only thing I look at from Fangraphs are some players fWAR’s because they use some defensive statistics which I know are often bogus, but at least they factor something in other than hitting. I like to see where they fit in one of maybe 4-5 levels.
A number of fans here comment on what they see of players in person or games on TV. I always love to read these comments because I can’t see very player over a period of time. Those comments are precious to me.
Statistics are what a player does in a period of time – they aren’t about the variables that need to be taken into account that affected that players performance. This is why I believe MLB in-house computer departments compete with one another to get a fuller picture of a player not just at any level in America, but anywhere in organized baseball in the world.
As for this situation and the A’s – they go through ‘rebuild to contend to rebuild’ cycles very 4-6 years. When they load up on young players they’re known for going against media think, and in fact trade for prospects that were not well regarded but wind up playing quite well when they get to the major league level.
@samuel nailed it here. I think Hernaiz is a perfect Oakland A type player. They have a huge field.(for as long as they stay in OAK) He’s a speed contact guy that can definitely play a good 2B if he can’t stick at SS. He swipes bags and makes contact. The O’s have 2 better SS prospects that are closer & the A’s have young arms that need to get a look. Good deal around.
I trust Elias to get the better end of it but time will tell.
Elias doesn’t have to get the better end, he has to improve the team now. And he did so with a valuable prospect who has competition in the Baltimore organization to maximize his value as a SS. I see it as a win-win for both clubs. But even if Hernaiz proves to be the better end of the deal, it’s still a smart use of resources in the near-term for Elias and the Orioles.
Nice move for A’s. I like Hernaiz. Other 2 guys aren’t hard to find.
amazing. didn’t think I’d wake up and see As rotation gets worse than it already is story. This team essentially is just daring the city to pay up for a new stadium or watch the team die a slow death
Could the A’s gotten more in return? Who knows. Time will tell with this yet another surprising trade.
I like the trade for the orioles. They get a nice 5th starter who can give them a good volume of innings at a low 4s ERA and a 6’7 arm with good control who could be a backend starter or middle relief guy and they only give up like their 7th best middle IF prospect who likely never would have made the big club anyway.
Hernaiz isn’t a bad prospect and maybe he can become a major leaguer but as a sole return this feels a little light. There is a world were hernaiz can become a starter but the most likely outcome is that he will be a bench bat. Would have liked at least a second lottery ticket or so when the return is rated so low (20th Os prospects and 40 fv at fangraphs).
Cole is a fringe #5 on a good team let’s be real. This is A’s just selling everything that’s not tied down to make room for younger higher upside guys and speed up the rebuild.
I would much rather see Waldichuk or Muller in the rotation.
MAKE JOHN FISHER SELL! This is beyond F*CKED UP!!!!
how do you make an owner sell?im asking that question because i dont know,if an owner can be forced to sell.hopefully someone on here can let me know.
The Orioles fans sure as hell don’t know lol
@Ace
Thx. I needed that laugh. Hurts because it’s true.
Fair trade. Makes sense for both teams.
From the Orioles side, looks like a decent move. A cheap pitcher who could turn into something average or so (O’s rotation definitely below average) and another minor league arm for a guy likely too far back in line to make an impact. If they train him up they have control for a few yrs.
Still would like an above average starter but they did go get someone without giving up too much.
You aren’t supposed to say “no previous indication the A’s were shopping Irvin.” You should have said that you knew it all along because we are mlbtraderumors.
So, people end up hurling playground insults and make things personal on an average trade post. This is why the internet makes me lose faith in humanity. Here is what I would say to those involved: don’t worry what others think. People can say whatever they want, but it doesn’t change reality. A team is what it is, and others mocking your favorite team isn’t really going to impact how it performs. People can respond however they want here. It doesn’t bother me.
Ouch. The return on this trade doesn’t bode well for my hope that the Tigers could pick up Nolan Gorman from St Louis for Eduardo Rodriguez in some type of package. Irvin had a better season last year for sure and Rodriguez has that opt out. Trade deadline dump of Rodriguez it is!
Texas Ranger
Said in the same response
that internet causes him to lose faith in humanity and
That it does not bother him.
Well, which is it bro?
I don’t see Irvin as a guy who helps move the needle for Baltimore. This is a treading water type of move, not a winning move.
Others have said that the A’s didn’t get much back and I agree. I’m just wondering if there is something going on with Irvin that isn’t immediately obvious. Bad in the clubhouse? Something going on at home? A medical problem? Hernaiz looks decent, but a starting major league pitcher with four years left before free agency should have gotten more than that. The A’s must really love Hernaiz.
O’s pride themselves currently with having a great clubhouse so I doubt that. They are pretty thorough on Medicals too. Idk about the at home part but its probably because I’m almost every other farm system, Hernaiz would be a top 10 prospect. The Os farm system is just that deep and good at the moment.
Pitchers without strong peripherals just don’t possess a ton of value in today’s game. Irvin’s a reliable back-end starter, but his stuff (velocity/spin rates) offer little optimism in way of future projections. Unless the Orioles see something in Irvin they can tweak, what you see is what you get from him — not a bad arm, albeit nothing spectacular.
There’s also the fact that the A’s — more than most teams — seem steadfast with internal prospect rankings, rather than aligning with the lists we see as fans. Given that, I’d wager that you are right — the Oakland front office is likely quite fond of Hernaiz.
You are quite right about the A’s having rock solid faith in their internal prospect rankings – to a fault. I know someone who was at the same dinner table with an A’s exec when they traded text messages to ship Josh Donaldson to Toronto. Apparently the exec, and everyone else in the A’s front office, was ecstatic because their internal rankings had Barreto, Graveman, Lawrie and Nolan WAY ahead of Donaldson. My friend internally shook his head but shut his mouth.
Seems like the complete roster/contract deconstruction the Oakland A’s are going through is the path of a team that is planning to be located elsewhere. By relocating to a MLB baseball deprived venue, the team can trot out ANY collection of “CHEAP” players while reaping in a treasure trove of dollars from sweetheart deals on: a new free stadium, attendance, concessions, broadcast revenue, merchandise sales, etc. However, if the owners just take that money and line their pockets as opposed to reinvesting in meaningful talent, it may well be a very short Honeymoon in their new location.
I’m sorry but how did Irvin become too expensive for Oakland? Whatever…
Glad Baltimore got a solid starter, not gonna blow away anyone but he’s literally an in innings eater and he’s going to be affordable even with his “price increase” at the of the season.
The trade is kind of light, even for a pile of crap like Irvin! Adding Virbitsky, who looks like a reliever at best, is a real slap in the face to Irvin, Virbitsky’s ERA was real high (4.78?) and he was 24 in A ball, not really fast tracking his results. The other guy going back to Oakland, Hernaiz, is interesting, has some power, probably decent wheels to snag 30+ bases in 2022, but they could have probably done better overall.
Most important, Cole Irvin has a very inflated ego, which should really help be a guiding light for all the youngsters on the Orioles team! (sarcasm) To be honest, as a Mariners fan, I’m going to miss beating him like a rented mule every game we play against him! I still remember in 2021 when he made his first start against the Mariners and said, “it was rough getting hit around a little, especially by a team like the Mariners.”
We then faced him like 3 or 4 more times and lit him up every chance we got that year. When 2022 came, we kept beating him every game he started against the Mariners. If the Athletics weren’t so dang awful, it might have put a couple of our forecasted wins in limbo, but thankfully the Athletics will be anything but good this year and it will probably make them worse, if that was even possible. To put it bluntly,
Cole Irvin is not that good, but he’s cheap and if I was Oakland, I would have targeted something a little more intriguing and useful. Hernaiz would be fine as a third piece, but I would’ve asked for Kjerstad and Povich as the headliners. Even then it would be light, but not unreasonable.
Goodbye Cole Irvin, we’ll miss lighting you up every start!
The Mariners
Nobody is getting Kjerstad, and Povich may be better already than these guys. Stop.
Kjerstad is not untouchable and your analysis of prospects is ridiculous. You are clearly an Orioles fan because everyone overvalues their own prospects. The Mariners have a mid-teens system (#14-#18 in MLB) and Povich wouldn’t fall in the top 6-7 arms in the system. Povich is a soft-toss RHP (92-93 mph) with his best pitch a slightly above-average changeup that flashes plus, but it inconsistent. Cole Irvin may have been the Mariners punching bag, but that doesn’t mean that he hasn’t proven himself to be an inning eater and #4-#5 starter on most teams. That still has value, especially with what he is slated to make. Proven talent is always x2 or more valuable than prospects.
The Orioles were also in a position where everyone knows they are antsy to add pitching talent, they missed on most of the big names for cost or ability to lure them to play in Baltimore. Either way, the cost goes up for teams with a glaring need and no internal way to fill it and before you talk about all the guys fighting for the spots in the rotation, realize that teams that are trying to win 90 games and get in the post season, have 3-4 guys locked in their rotation. The Orioles after getting Irvin have 2-3 with question marks surrounding Means health, the development timeline of Rodriguez, the final destination for Hall (SP or RP), and then a host of Hogan’s Heroes trying to prove they belong and can perform for a full season with inning limit questions around many of them. Wells, Kremer, Bradish are all potentially okay to good options, but have question marks.
To prove my point, Yankees have Roden, Cole, Cortes, Montas, and Severino; Mariners have Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby, Ray, and Gonzales or Flexen; Rays have McClanahan, Glaslow, Rasmussen, Springs, and Eflin, just to make a couple examples. Going off fangraphs.com depth charts, they project Rodriguez as the 5th starter, The top 4 of Gibson, Bradish, Kremer, and Irvin are projected to throw 157 IP/starter and only be worth 4 fWAR combined. That’s a lot of innings of average performance at best.
So considering where they were before the Irvin trade, the Orioles were like a guy out of gas in the middle of the desert, somewhere on Route 66. You can know what gas costs, but if you have to buy it from someone driving buy, you definitely aren’t paying the price at the pump! It was a bad trade for the Athletics because they should have exploited the situation for more, especially when the Orioles are so prospect rich that it really wouldn’t have affected them that much. A good example is when the Mariners needed one more big arm and had to overpay for Luis Castillo.
Nice long post but you lost me at Povich, you clearly know nothing about him.
He’s a LEFT hander with a plus curveball.
Cole Irvin wasn’t going to bring back a massive haul. He’s not in Luis Castillo’s stratosphere.
Irvin’s spray charts indicate that the Great Wall of Baltimore in left field will be very helpful to his results for the birds:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cole-irvin/19244/spray-charts?position=P&type=battedball
That’s a really optimistic view for a guy that’s batted ball profiles on statcast would be a middle-of-the-order hitter, if he was a position player. Cole Irvin has a Hard Hit Rate (HH%) of 39.3 in 2021 and 39.5 in 2022 over 359.1 IP combined, which leaves me feeling pretty comfortable about what kind of contact he gives up. Below is Cole Irvin’s statcast page.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cole-irvin-608344?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
Below I am also attaching the HH% leaderboard for 2022 and the names of guys with equal or lower HH% than what Irvin gave up to the whole of the league are names like Bogaerts, Arenado, Bregman, Mullins, Ramirez (CLE), Rutschman, France, Franco (TB), Varsho, and Semien. To reiterate, these guys all had individual HH% lower in 2022 than what Irvin averaged against ALL hitters he faced, even the Nick Madrigal’s of the world.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter&year=2022&position=&team=&min=q&sort=13&sortDir=desc
Unless Baltimore is reconstructing, “The Wall,” from Game of Thrones, I’m not sure whatever they are doing in LF is going to really have that much of a benefit for Irvin. It’s still a bandbox park, he’s a soft throwing LHP whose main breaking ball is a looping curveball that when improperly thrown tends to break just perfectly for the sweet spot of advantageously-minded hitters.
I’m pretty sure Spider-Man couldn’t offer enough defensive value to overcome his HH%, web-shooters included. The only question facing Judge when he faces Irvin is what state the ball will land in when it finally comes down. Like I said before, I’m not a fan of Cole Irvin, I don’t think he’s very good, and he’s purely an innings eater, but there is value in that and proven vs unproven is still a quantifiable trade value, especially when the team acquiring him is desperate for proven innings eaters.
My entire point was that the wall in left field, which is 13 feet high, would help him. I stand by that point.
BTW, he’s only pitched one game in Camden Yards, and that was in 2021 before the left field wall was raised from 7′ 4″ and moved back 26.5 feet. He went 5.1 innings, gave up seven singles and only one extra-base hit, a double to Cedric Mullins, and won the game 3-1.
Baltimore was tied for the 6th hardest park to hit a HR in last year.
99% of that is because of the gigantic monster wall. It doesn’t take a mental giant to look at Irvin’s spray chart and see the benefit of a gigantic wall.
This story does not fit your narrative, I realize this. I haven’t seen anyone suggest Irvin is going to develop into a TOR guy. Simply looks like a cheap fly ball innings eater who should benefit from a huge LF wall.
What the hell are the A’s doing
Room for Esteury Ruiz to be their all-star selection for 2023?
I’ll take 4 years of Irvin for Hernaiz any day of the week, especially when you consider that Hernaiz was probably going to be a 40 man roster crunch decision since he needs to be added at season’s end and the Os probably won’t have room for him anyway.
They have a wealth of quality MIs so they were smart to deal from a position of depth. Good move, Elias.
The term fleeced is overused. Still, I think Texas should have centered their offseason on fleecing Oakland instead of signing free agents.Maybe just deGrom and then Irwin and Paul Blackburn? Perhaps a reliever or two who become too costly due to arbitration? Even as someone who usually wants less spending, this level is unbearable.
What does the Crocodile Hunter have to do with the Athletics? Have you seen the Athletics roster, I wouldn’t bet on their staff to finish Top 3 in the Pacific Coast League. They are garbage. Be happy your team spend the money on the guys they did. If the Rangers used the Athletics remaining arms to “improve,” they would have been more of a joke than the LHP Angels of Anaheim.
The Angels are the biggest joke because they are going to lose 90 games in 2022 with two of the best players in the game, They literally stacked their rotation with LHP which the Mariners will destroy with a lineup that destroys LHP: Hernandez (175 wRC+), Pollock (161) to a lineup with Haggerty (211), Murphy (165), Suarez (163), Rodriguez (142), Moore (137), France (118), and Raleigh (112).
That Mariners lineup will tick up vs LHP from their combined 110 wRC+ in 2022 with their new additions, while the Rangers (112 wRC+ combined) and the Astros (124 wRC+ combined) already were feasting on LHP last year. Talk about not paying attention to the guys that play you 45-ish times in 2023, it’s going to be a really ugly year for people in Orange County, The only time their rotation will look good in the AL West is when Ohtani is pitching or the Athletics are batting.
It’s raining in Baltimore?
It is threading water but the Os rotation greatly overperformed last year, they were solid in ERA (6th in the AL) but only 13th in K rate and 11th in k-bb% which likely means they are in for some Regression. Banning the shift likely won’t help those low K groundball pitchers in Baltimore either.
One or two of their 4 Era starters last year likely will balloon to a 5.5 Era or get hurt so even if irvin Regresses to a 4.5 Era having him will help the team.
Sure the Os are adding Grayson and he can be good but he will likely not throw more than 110 or so IP at the mlb level this year.
The Os actually do need to Thread water to even repeat last years rotation results, you can’t rely on that bunch repeating last year and apart from Grayson the MILB pitching is still not ready to help out yet.
Sure getting a #3 or better starter would have been better but more depth is definitely needed too, last year was a great story but one injury and one underperformer could have made that Os rotation the worst in the AL.
The O’s have like 9 starters. They are not going to run garbage out there every day.
Those days are (thankfully) over.
Hall is probably a reliever, Rodriguez had a shortened 2023 and needs to build arm strength, Means is coming back from T.J. surgery, Wells is probably a reliever long-term, Kremer is a #5 in the AL East or AL West (OAK excluded), and a #4 in the AL Central. Bradish is the glimmer of light that I could see becoming the staff ace by the All-Star break and probably will be their other All-Star representative besides Rutschman. The only locks for the rotation is Gibson, Irvin, Bradish, and Kremer, Wells by default until a better option appears (Means), but that’s not even close to how you want to go into a season as a team with aspirations of getting a wild card birth.
Domingo111;
Smart teams pattern the types of players they bring in to work off of one another as well as the parks dimensions (and most MLB teams are not smart – they do what’s expedient…i.e. take whatever they can get that they think improves the team on paper according to overall statistics.).
The Orioles value defense. Most of their position players are above average; none are crummy (at times last year Odor was, but they let him go). Position players in their minor league system are good defenders and their coaches work with them. Rookies don’t come up misplaying balls, being in the wrong place after the ball is hit, or throwing to the wrong base. They emphasize being a strong fundamental team, and that includes defense.
They can get by fine on pitch-to-contact pitcher. In fact, that was the reason Gibson signed with them as opposed to other teams that were making him similar offers. With a good defense (and that deep and high LF wall) there will be no “regression” because quality defenses don’t go in slumps (maybe a bad game here and there). Additionally, pitch-to-contact guys tend to stay healthier than strikeout guys that put too much pressure on parts of their body which results in both fatigue and often injuries as the season wears on.
Those young pitchers did not “overperform” in 2022, if anything most are going to get better.
If you don’t make the playoffs, then you should be trying to position yourself for the best prospects in the draft, so you can get out of the cellar. The only thing the Orioles did is make themselves more mid than the day before and all that does is assure them an 80 win season and picking in the middle of the first round! Not what I would consider helping the team.
Why won’t Orioles compete for wild card? Only division winner from AL Central. Maybe better than Rays and Angels. Let’s say division winners repeat. Blue Jays get WC1. Mariners, O’s and Rangers in mix for WC 2 and 3. Injury to deGrom and O’s grab WC 6.
You seem to be implying that they should tank to get draft picks. That’s a crappy attitude, and the more so since they had a winning record last year and missed the Wild Card by three games.
What team do you root for, btw?
Hey Domingo111 – how do you thread water? also the O’s starting rotation’s ERA was 10th in the AL last year. Bullpen ERA was 7th in the AL. Overall, their team ERA was 9th in the AL. Please stop making stats up…
I don’t get it… this is a salary dump trade structure, just without the dump.
Hope the Mariners and Orioles make the playoffs! Rest assured the Mariners are going to continue to beat that smug Irvin every time they see him though