Cole Irvin

Sorting Through The Orioles’ Rotation Options

By Steve Adams | February 2, 2023 at 4:59pm CDT

The Orioles headed into the winter intent on adding a pair of veterans to the rotation, and while there was a substantial layoff between their first and second additions, with Kyle Gibson signing a one-year deal back on Dec. 5 and Cole Irvin not joining the staff until last Friday’s trade. That gives the O’s a pair of veterans who are plenty capable of eating up innings while still also leaving a fairly wide-open window for several younger arms to pitch their way into the team’s plans.

In all likelihood, the Orioles will wind up using ten or more starters over the course of the season. It’s commonplace for teams to cycle through far more than the five (or six) members of the Opening Day rotation — particularly younger teams like Baltimore, where the rotation will be composed primarily of yet-unproven starters and/or prospects whose workloads will be handled with care.

Locks

Kyle Gibson, RHP: Whether by design or by happenstance, the decision to bring in Gibson over 2022 staff innings leader Jordan Lyles wound up being a cost-neutral gambit, which will lead to inevitable comparisons between the two. The Orioles bought Lyles’ $11MM club option out for $1MM, then turned around and invested the exact same $10MM they saved into a one-year deal with Gibson.

The 35-year-old Gibson, like Lyles, is a workhorse by today’s standards. He’s averaged 29.875 starts per 162-game season, dating back to 2014, and made a full slate of 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season. He has a below-average strikeout rate with solid command and above-average ground-ball tendencies. The O’s are going to count on him for 30-plus starts and 160-plus innings, although if they’re not in contention when the trade deadline rolls around, it’s easy to see them putting Gibson on the market.

Cole Irvin, LHP: For the second time in as many weeks, I’m listing Irvin as a “lock” in a team’s rotation while profiling their various options on the back end of the staff. As noted on that rundown of the A’s rotation, there was always a chance that Irvin could be moved, though a midseason deal felt likelier. The O’s instead jumped to add Irvin as a durable source of innings.

Over the past two seasons, he’s made 62 starts of 4.11 ERA ball with a well below-average 16.8% strikeout rate but a superb 5.2% walk rate as a member of Oakland’s rotation. That’ll be the type of production they’re looking for not just this year but for the next several seasons. Irvin is controlled for another four years and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until next offseason.

There’s some risk in acquiring Irvin, who’s had far more success at the spacious Oakland Coliseum than on the road. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, the lefty owns a 3.44 ERA pitching in Oakland, where opponents have batted just .243/.288/.355 against him in nearly 800 plate appearances. In that same timeframe, Irvin’s road ERA is a more alarming 4.88, and opponents have pounced on him for a .285/.330/.491 slash. The O’s recently made their left field dimensions quite a bit more pitcher-friendly, but Irvin will still be facing some righty-heavy lineups within the AL East.

Pitchers who made 15+ starts in 2022

Dean Kremer, RHP: Kremer, 27, finished second on the Orioles with 125 1/3 innings pitched and notched a tidy 3.23 ERA last season despite a tepid 17% strikeout rate. Kremer, acquired from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade, doesn’t miss bats or keep the ball on the ground, but he has a better-than-average walk rate. Any regression in his 0.79 HR/9 mark or his 77.8% left-on-base rate — he entered the season at 2.12 and 65.1%, respectively — could spike his ERA closer to his 4.54 SIERA. That said, Kremer at least looks the part of a back-of-the-rotation arm. And, now that he’s poised to take on a larger workload, he should at least be a decent source of average-ish innings.

Kyle Bradish, RHP: One of four minor leaguers acquired in the trade sending Dylan Bundy to the Angels, Bradish ranked third on the 2022 O’s with 117 2/3 innings pitched. He missed more bats and generated more grounders than Kremer but was also more prone to both walks and home runs. Bradish’s 4.90 ERA isn’t much to look at, but while fielding-independent metrics feel Kremer had some good fortune in ’22, the opposite is true of Bradish, whose FIP, SIERA, etc. are all quite a bit lower than his earned run average. Both pitchers seem capable of turning in an ERA in the low- or mid-4.00s over 150-plus innings.

Spenser Watkins, RHP: A former 30th-round pick by the Tigers, Watkins signed with the O’s as a minor league free agent in Jan. 2021 and debuted as a 29-year-old rookie later that season. He tallied 105 1/3 innings for the 2022 Orioles, posting a 4.70 ERA along the way. Among the 156 pitchers with at least 150 innings thrown since 2021, no one has posted a lower strikeout rate than Watkins’ 13.7%. His 7.9% swinging-strike rate is fifth-lowest among that group. Watkins has good command and has posted solid numbers in Triple-A over the past two seasons, but he feels like more of a depth option based on his big league work to date.

Tyler Wells, RHP: Baltimore’s most effective starter for much of the 2022 season, Wells carried a 3.09 ERA through his first 16 starts but needed a .225 average on balls in play to get there. That minimal BABIP and a 16.7% strikeout rate made the ERA look fairly dubious, and Wells indeed struggled mightily over his final few starts of the season. It should be noted that he missed more than a month due to a side injury and landed back on the shelf due to shoulder trouble to close out the year, but he nonetheless yielded a 7.39 ERA over his final 28 innings (seven starts). None of Wells, Kremer or Bradish miss bats at a particularly high level, nor do they possess elite command or ground-ball tendencies. They each have some appealing traits, however, and any of this trio could be a viable fourth/fifth starter.

Austin Voth, RHP: Continuing on that trend, Voth is another fly-ball pitcher with passable but not eye-catching strikeout and walk numbers. Claimed off waivers from the Nationals in early June, Voth made 17 starts and five relief appearances, pitching to a 3.04 ERA in that time. He’s not going to keep stranding 82% of the baserunners he allows — that’s 10 percentage points above the league average and above Voth’s career mark prior to 2022 — but he has the makings of a back-end starter, as he’s shown on occasion with the Nats in the past. Voth is out of minor league options, so he’s going to be on the roster either as a starter or as a swingman.

The Top Prospects

Grayson Rodriguez, RHP: The arm on which so many Orioles fans are pinning their hopes, the 23-year-old Rodriguez might have already made his big league debut were it not for a lat strain that sidelined him for half the 2022 season. Rodriguez, selected with the No. 11 pick of the 2018 draft, ranks among the sport’s top 15 overall prospects at each of Baseball America (6), MLB.com (7), ESPN (12) and The Athletic (15). A 6’5″, 220-pound righty armed with a four-pitch mix that’s headlined by an upper-90s heater and elite changeup, Rodriguez has genuine front-of-the-rotation potential.

Rodriguez is regarded as one of the sport’s five best pitching prospects, and now that the new CBA actually reward teams for promoting prospects via potential draft compensation based on Rookie of the Year voting, Rodriguez will have a legitimate chance to make the Opening Day rotation. The O’s may want to be cautious, as that lat strain limited him to just 75 2/3 innings in 2022 and a jump to a full season of MLB starts would probably more than double that total. Rodriguez might be the organization’s best starter right now, even though he hasn’t made his MLB debut. He posted a combined 2.62 ERA across three minor league levels and did so with a mammoth 36.6% strikeout rate against a 9.3% walk rate. He’s going to make his MLB debut in 2023 — it’s just a matter of when.

DL Hall, LHP: Unlike Rodriguez, Hall has already made his debut at the MLB level, although it didn’t go as the team had hoped. The former No. 21 overall pick pitched in 11 games — 10 of them relief appearances — but was tagged for nine runs on 17 hits and six walks. The resulting 5.93 ERA wasn’t particularly encouraging, but Rodriguez fanned 19 opponents (29.7%) and issued walks at a lower clip in the Majors than he had in Triple-A (9.4% versus 14.2%).

Command issues have long been the primary flaw scouts see in Hall — a 6’2″ lefty with a heater that averaged 96.4 mph during that MLB debut and multiple plus or better secondary pitches. Baseball America pegs Hall’s fastball as an 80 on the 20-80 scale, while also crediting him with a plus-plus slider, a plus curve and a plus changeup. Unfortunately, all of that is accompanied by well below-average command. Hall has walked 13.4% of his opponents in the minors, and in his 18 minor league starts this past season, he completed six innings just once. Some of that is the Orioles being cautious with an arm they hold in high regard, but Hall averaged 75 pitches per outing despite averaging under four innings per start. Certainly, he could stand to be more efficient.

Last year’s 98 innings were a career-high for Hall, who’s also missed ample time due to injury in his pro career. Between the lack of innings and the shaky command, many scouting reports feel he’s likelier to be a dynamic reliever than a starter, but the O’s will likely give him some considerable leash as a starter because the ceiling is so high.

Other options on the 40-man

Mike Baumann, RHP: The 27-year-old Baumann was one of the organization’s best pitching prospects as recently as two years ago, but a flexor strain cost him time and he hasn’t topped 100 innings in either of the past two seasons. The O’s have begun working Baumann out of the bullpen more frequently, and given the number of rotation options the organization has, that could be a better path to the big leagues for him. There’s benefit to keeping him stretched out as a starter, of course, but Baumann made just 13 starts to 20 relief appearances last year.

Bruce Zimmermann, LHP: A local product the O’s acquired in the trade that sent Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day to the Braves back in 2018, Zimmermann has pitched in parts of three seasons for the O’s but never posted an ERA south of 5.00. In 145 MLB frames, he carries a 5.69 ERA (5.78 FIP, 4.43 SIERA) with a low 17.6% strikeout rate but a strong 5.7% walk rate. Zimmermann has averaged just 91.3 mph on his heater, and opponents have teed off on both that pitch and his changeup, clubbing an average of 2.23 homers per nine innings against the southpaw. Zimmermann still has a pair of option years remaining and has been good in Triple-A over the past two seasons, but he needs to find a way to curtail his issues with the long ball.

Drew Rom, LHP: The O’s selected Rom to the 40-man roster back in November to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. The 2018 fourth-rounder split the 2022 season between Double-A and Triple-A, logging a combined 4.43 ERA with a 27.1% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and solid ground-ball tendencies. He’s not an overpowering lefty, but he’s pretty close to big league ready and the O’s clearly felt he’d have been poached in the Rule 5 had he gone unprotected. There are a lot of candidates for innings in Baltimore, but he’ll be in the mix to debut this year.

Recovering from injury

John Means, LHP: Baltimore’s best starter from 2019-21, Means logged a 3.73 ERA in 345 1/3 innings during that time and was named the Orioles’ Opening Day starter in 2022. He made just two starts last year before an elbow injury shelved him, however, and Means underwent Tommy John surgery in late April. That’ll take him out of the equation early in the year, but the O’s can hope for Means to return at some point over the summer. He only has two years of club control remaining.

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As things stand, the Orioles have two veteran locks (Gibson, Irvin), a series of righties who achieved solid results despite middling K/BB and batted-ball profiles in 2022 (Kremer, Bradish, Wells, Voth) and a pair electric prospects (Rodriguez, Hall) — the former of which is arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball.

It’s a promising group, but the O’s will need to convert on Rodriguez and either see Hall improve his command or another young arm (e.g. Cade Povich) take a pronounced step forward in 2023. Baltimore’s system is rife with high-end bats but less stocked with arms. A rotation featuring Rodriguez (assuming he hits the ground running) and a host of No. 4 types is enough to compete, but it’s still a bit surprising that the team didn’t land a higher-profile arm this winter in an effort to bolster the starting staff. Perhaps the O’s are confident that an incumbent arm is on the cusp of a breakout, but right now Baltimore’s lineup looks more formidable than its rotation.

Orioles Acquire Cole Irvin From A’s

By Darragh McDonald | January 26, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

The Orioles have acquired left-handed pitcher Cole Irvin in a trade with the Athletics, per announcements from both clubs. Right-handed pitching prospect Kyle Virbitsky will also head to Baltimore while infield prospect Darell Hernaiz is heading to the A’s.

On one hand, this move comes as a surprise, since there had been no previous indication the A’s were shopping Irvin or that they were talking to the Orioles. On the other hand, it’s not shocking to see the club continue tearing down the roster, since they’ve been aggressively committed to that path for the past year. Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt were all traded just before the 2022 campaign, while Frankie Montas was dealt midseason and Sean Murphy this winter.

With the club seemingly willing to strip the roster down to the studs, any established Oakland player is at least a speculative trade candidate. There was no real rush to move Irvin, since he still had four years of club control remaining, but he will qualify for arbitration at the end of this season and would start to make a more significant salary. It appears that they received an offer they liked enough to pull the ripcord early and jettison Irvin from the roster in yet another future-focused move.

The Orioles have been looking for rotation upgrades all winter and were reportedly still on the hunt earlier this week. They haven’t been running out huge payrolls in recent years so Irvin’s low salary and years of cheap control were surely appealing to them. They made one modest upgrade to their rotation this offseason by signing veteran Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $10MM deal but have otherwise been quiet until today. Irvin will quickly become the club’s second-most experienced starter behind Gibson.

Irvin, 29 next week, was a Phillies’ draftee and made his MLB debut with them. He made 19 appearances over 2019 and 2020 but with a bloated 6.75 ERA in that time. But his minor league results were much better and the A’s took a shot by sending cash considerations to Philadelphia to get him. The change of scenery went very well for him, as he made 62 starts over the past two seasons with a 4.11 ERA over 359 1/3 innings.

This new change of scenery will have risk for the O’s, though. Irvin has succeeded in Oakland over the past couple of years with a low-strikeout, pitch-to-contact approach. He’s only walked 5.2% of the batters he’s faced over those two campaigns, which is a very strong number. For reference, the league average for starters last year was 7.5%. But he’s only punched out hitters at a 16.8% rate for Oakland, well below last year’s 21.6% league average. His 37.6% ground ball over that span was also a bit below par. That kind of profile has worked for him in the pitcher-friendly confines of Oakland Coliseum but might not be as effective in different conditions. It’s perhaps notable that Irvin has posted a 3.44 ERA at home over the past two years but a 4.88 mark outside of Oakland.

The O’s are apparently undeterred by those splits and have added Irvin to their starting mix, where he and Gibson should take two of the spots. The rest of the rotation will be less certain, with options like Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Bruce Zimmermann, Mike Baumann and Spenser Watkins on the 40-man. Each of those guys have a bit of MLB experience but inconsistent results have prevented them from truly establishing themselves as big leaguers. There’s also Grayson Rodriguez, who is considered one of the best pitching prospects in the sport but he’s yet to make his MLB debut and missed most of last year due to a lat strain. John Means could be a factor down the line but likely not until midseason due to undergoing Tommy John surgery in April of last year. It’s a group with a lot of unknowns but the club will hope to get some reliability out of Irvin and Gibson while they sort through the rest and see who separates themselves from the pack. In addition to Irvin, the O’s will add Virbitsky to their system. The 24-year-old was a 17th round draft pick in 2021. He posted a 4.63 ERA last year between Class-A and High-A, striking out 25.7% of batters faced while walking 5.5%. He’ll add some starting depth to the lower levels of their system.

By letting go of Irvin and Virbitsky, the A’s are adding an intriguing young player in Hernaiz. The 21-year-old was a fifth-round selection of the O’s in 2019. Baseball America ranked him the #25 Orioles prospect going into 2020, highlighting his athleticism but noting that the lack of power could be an issue for him. That seems to have played out in his minor league time so far. After the minors were canceled in 2020, Hernaiz spent 2021 in Class-A, hitting six home runs in 94 games. He did steal 22 bases but his .277/.333/.358 batting line was a bit below average, with his wRC+ coming in at 92. In 2022, he shot up three levels, going from Class-A to High-A and Double-A. He got into 105 games between those three levels and stole 32 bases with 12 home runs. His combined batting line of .273/.341/.438 resulted in a 112 wRC+. He’s split his time between second base, third base and shortstop and will slot into Oakland’s infield prospect mix. He struggled in his first 13 Double-A games and will likely head back to that level to start this season. He’ll be Rule 5 eligible at the end of the upcoming season.

The O’s have plenty of infield prospects, with the likes of Gunnar Henderson, Coby Mayo, Joey Ortiz, Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg and Connor Norby some of the exciting youngsters in the system. It seems they felt they could part with Hernaiz and still be in good shape there, whereas the A’s have continued to bolster their farm by subtracting from their major league club. Without Irvin, their rotation will consist of offseason signees Shintaro Fujinami and Drew Rucinski, incumbents Paul Blackburn and James Kaprielian, as well as a huge pile of unestablished options who will be jockeying for playing time as the season rolls along.

Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the deal before the official announcement (Twitter links).

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Sorting Through The Athletics’ Rotation Options

By Steve Adams | January 23, 2023 at 3:32pm CDT

The A’s formally announced newly signed right-hander Shintaro Fujinami at a press conference last week, where general manager David Forst confirmed that Fujinami is indeed viewed as a starting pitcher. That’s the role he’s held in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball for the bulk of his career, so perhaps it’s not a surprise, but Fujinami is a hard-throwing righty with command issues, so there was a case to be made for putting him in the ’pen.

Beyond that, the simple fact is that even prior to signing Fujinami, the A’s had more rotation candidates than rotation spots. That’s not an especially common spot for a rebuilding club to find itself, but Oakland has zeroed in on bulk pitching acquisition over the course of its fire sale/teardown. The front office didn’t target exclusively pitchers, but the A’s nonetheless have as many as seven rotation candidates who’ve been acquired via trade within the past calendar year on the 40-man roster.

No team is going to rely on five starters to get through a season, and even getting through a year with “only” seven or eight starters is a luxury to which most teams cannot lay claim in the modern baseball landscape. That said, the A’s stand out as a team that might lean on 15 or more starting pitchers to get through the season, given the lack of established talent, the glut of nearly MLB-ready arms on the roster and the potential for an in-season trade involving just about any likely member of the rotation.

Let’s take a look at what the starting staff might look like…

The Locks

Cole Irvin, LHP: Not many trades that end up sending cash back to a player’s former team work out better than the acquisition of Irvin has for the A’s. It’s been nearly two years to the day since Oakland picked him up from the Phillies in exchange for cash, and he’s made 62 starts of 4.11 ERA ball with a well below-average 16.8% strikeout rate but a superb 5.2% walk rate.

With four years of club control remaining, it’d be a surprise if Irvin hasn’t at least generated some cursory trade interest this winter, although his glaring home/road splits might not help his cause much. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, the lefty owns a 3.44 ERA at home, where opponents have batted just .243/.288/.355 against him in nearly 800 plate appearances. In that same timeframe, Irvin’s road ERA is a more alarming 4.88, and opponents have pounced on him for a .285/.330/.491 slash.

Splits notwithstanding, Irvin is a perfectly viable fourth/fifth starter, but a team that plays its home games in a more hitter-friendly environment might be understandably dissuaded from giving up too much young talent to acquire him. That’s fine for the A’s for now, given Irvin’s remaining club control and the simple fact that they’ll need some dependability on the staff. If he’s pitching well come July, he’ll be a feasible trade candidate (particularly with an arbitration raise looming next offseason).

Paul Blackburn, RHP: It’s easy to call Blackburn, who made the 2022 All-Star team but finished the year with a 4.28 ERA, a token All-Star who was only chosen because every team needs a representative. Perhaps there’s some truth to that, too, but as I noted last summer, Blackburn was a plenty deserving selection and a fairly intriguing trade chip at one point. Through July 2, he’d pitched 87 innings of 2.90 ERA ball with three times as many strikeouts as walks (18.8% to 6.2%) and a strong 48.7% grounder rate. His .280 BABIP and 80.7% left-on-base rate pointed to some likely regression, but based on results alone, Blackburn was pretty good.

Things went off the rails almost immediately thereafter, however. Blackburn tried for several weeks to pitch through pain that’d arisen in his pitching hand, but he was shelled for 21 runs in a span of 14 1/3 innings. He eventually landed on the injured list due to that pain, and testing revealed that he’d torn the tendon sheath in his right middle finger. He was placed in a splint for up to eight weeks, and his season was over.

Time will tell whether Blackburn can replicate his production from the first three months of the 2022 season, but as long as he’s healthy, he’ll be given every opportunity to prove it was sustainable. Blackburn only has three seasons of club control remaining, so if he’s healthy and pitching well this summer, expect to hear his name pop up in rumors.

Newcomers Who’ll Be Given a Chance

Shintaro Fujinami, RHP: The former high school rival of Shohei Ohtani, Fujinami was once lauded as a prospect nearly as much as the current Angels phenom. Fujinami, 28, stepped right from his high school rotation into the rotation of Japan’s Hanshin Tigers, posting a 2.75 ERA in 137 2/3 innings as a rookie in Nippon Professional Baseball. He was a multi-time All-Star and budding phenom in his first four years in Japan, pitching to a sub-3.00 ERA each season. His career has come off the rails since that time, though, and Fujinami comes to Oakland as a hard-throwing but command-challenged project. At 6’6″, he’s armed with a fastball that can reach triple digits and a splitter and slider that have both, at times, made hitters look silly. He’s also been shuttled between the Tigers’ top team and minor league team in NPB for several seasons while displaying troubling walk rates and looking like a shell of the potential star he was early in his pro career.

Drew Rucinski, RHP: In the past five years, the now-34-year-old Rucinski went from nondescript, replacement-level MLB pitcher to a powerhouse workhorse for the KBO’s NC Dinos. Rucinski started 121 games dating back to 2019 and has posted an ERA between 3.17 and 2.93 each season. Along the way, he’s whiffed 21.5% of opposing batters, walked just 6.3% of them and posted a superhuman 66% ground-ball rate. The A’s signed Rucinski for a year and $3MM, with a 2024 club option valued at $5MM. If he can carry over any of that KBO form to the Coliseum, he’ll be a durable source of innings and a nice summer trade chip.

The Out-of-Options Arm Who’ll Make the Staff in Some Capacity

James Kaprielian, RHP: A former first-round pick of the Yankees who was sent to Oakland as part of the Sonny Gray trade, Kaprielian has been injured more often than he’s been healthy. He looked to be turning a corner over the past two seasons, logging a combined 4.16 ERA in 253 1/3 innings over the life of 50 games (47 of them starts). However, Kaprielian had shoulder surgery this offseason, and it’s not clear whether he’ll be ready to go for Opening Day. Manager Mark Kotsay said at the time of Kaprielian’s surgery that the organization expected him to be ready, but Shayna Rubin of the San Jose Mercury News recently suggested that the soon-to-be 29-year-old might miss time early in the year. (If that’s indeed the case, he’ll land on the IL alongside rotation hopeful Daulton Jefferies, who’ll miss all of 2023 after undergoing both thoracic outlet surgery and Tommy John surgery.) Kaprielian is out of minor league options, so whenever he’s healthy, he’ll be on the roster either as a starter or perhaps a multi-inning reliever — it’s a just a matter of when that time will be.

Candidates for the Remaining Rotation Innings

(Note: all players in this section have six-plus seasons of club control remaining)

Adrian Martinez, RHP (two remaining option years): One of two players acquired in the trade that sent Sean Manaea to San Diego, Martinez was roughed up for a 6.24 ERA in 57 2/3 innings in last year’s MLB debut. It’s a rough showing, to be sure, but his 20.5% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate both portend better production. Martinez’s 2.03 HR/9 mark was one of the highest in the game, and only four of the 344 pitchers who threw at least 50 innings in 2022 saw a larger percentage of their fly-balls become home runs than Martinez’s 19.7%. That HR/FB rate, in particular, is ripe for positive regression, even before considering the A’s spacious home park. Metrics like xFIP (4.11) and SIERA (4.16), which normalize HR/FB to league-average levels, feel that Martinez was vastly better than his basic earned run average.

Ken Waldichuk, LHP (three option years): A key piece in the trade sending Frankie Montas to the Bronx, Waldichuk held his own in a seven-start debut (4.93 ERA, 33-to-10 K/BB ratio in 34 2/3 innings). His final outing, featuring seven shutout frames against the Angels, was a particularly high note on which to finish. On top of those 34 2/3 MLB frames, Waldichuk logged 95 innings of 2.84 ERA ball between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s arguably the most highly regarded member of this bunch, and he should have multiple opportunities to win a rotation spot over the next 12 to 18 months in Oakland.

Kyle Muller, LHP (one option year): A 2016 second-round pick by the Braves (who traded him to Oakland in the Sean Murphy deal), Muller has at times been ranked among the sport’s 100 best prospects at various outlets, but his stock has dimmed a bit since that time. He’s managed just a 5.14 ERA in 49 MLB innings, but he spent the bulk of his 2022 season pitching to a 3.41 ERA in 134 1/3 Triple-A innings (23 starts). Muller punched out a hefty 29.3% of his opponents. Muller can reach the upper 90s with his heater, draws plus grades on his slider and now that he’s out of a more crowded rotation mix in Atlanta, should have a clear path to innings with the A’s. He’s out of options after the 2023 season, so it’s in Oakland’s best interest to give him a chance sooner than later.

JP Sears, LHP (two option years): Prior to Oakland’s dice rolls on Rucinski and Fujinami, Sears might’ve been a favorite to break camp in the rotation after pitching to a 3.86 ERA in 70 innings as a rookie last year. Acquired in the Montas trade along with Waldichuk, the 5’11” lefty has dominated Triple-A (2.32 ERA in 101 career innings), but a return to that level might be his most straightforward path to starter’s innings early in the season. Sears, who’ll turn 27 in a few weeks, isn’t the prototypical “prospect,” as he doesn’t throw especially hard and has relied more on plus command than overpowering stuff to find success in the minors. It’s a recipe that’s worked well for Oakland pitchers in the past, thanks to the Coliseum’s cavernous dimensions. Even if he doesn’t break camp on the roster, he’ll probably start a fair number of games for the A’s in 2023.

Freddy Tarnok, RHP (two option years): Another piece of Oakland’s return for Murphy, Tarnok has all of 44 2/3 innings above Double-A under his belt (including a tiny two-thirds of an inning MLB debut in 2022). That lack of upper minors experience, coupled with the breadth of options for the Athletics’ rotation, should probably ticket him for Triple-A work to start the season. Several scouting reports on the 6’3″ Tarnok suggest his ultimate home might be in the bullpen, where a fastball that can already reach 98 mph might play up further. He’s never reached 110 innings in a professional season, so in addition to getting some needed reps against Triple-A lineups, he’ll also be looking to build out his workload.

Luis Medina, RHP (one option year): Yet another piece of the Montas return, Medina pitched to a 3.38 ERA in 17 Double-A starts with the Yankees before being blown up for a calamitous 11.76 ERA in seven starts (20 2/3 innings) with the Athletics’ Double-A club. Command has long been an issue for Medina, but he took that concern to new heights with the A’s, walking 22 of the 114 batters he faced following the trade. FanGraphs lauds Medina’s plus breaking ball and elite arm strength, while Baseball America notes that his heater has reached 103 mph in the past. The huge command concerns could lead to a future in the bullpen. Medina isn’t likely to win a starting job early in the season, but the A’s can continue trying to refine his ability to locate the ball in hopes of hitting the jackpot on a starter with this type of repertoire. If not, a move to the ’pen could put him on a fast track to the Majors.

Adam Oller, RHP (two option years): The A’s picked up Oller as one of two arms in the trade sending Chris Bassitt to the Mets. Nineteen appearances later (14 starts), he has a 6.30 big league ERA under his belt with nearly as many walks (39) as strikeouts (46) in 74 1/3 innings. It wasn’t the start anyone hoped for, but Oller posted a solid 3.69 ERA in seven Triple-A starts. Oller always profiled as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter, and even the A’s massive home park couldn’t curtail the right-hander’s home run issues (2.06 HR/9). A bullpen role where he works multiple innings is feasible, as is a return to Triple-A Las Vegas.

Other Recent Trade Acquisitions

J.T. Ginn, RHP: Ginn missed more than three months of the 2022 season with a forearm injury and was clobbered for a 6.11 ERA in 10 starts of Double-A ball when healthy. He came to the A’s alongside Oller in the Bassitt trade and, as a 2020 second-rounder, was the more highly regarded get for Oakland. He’s not on the 40-man roster yet and is still only 23, so there’s plenty of time for him to right the ship, but he’s not on the immediate rotation radar.

Ryan Cusick, RHP: The Braves’ top pick in 2021, Cusick was traded to Oakland in the Matt Olson swap. Like Ginn, he spent much of the season on the injured list (in his case, due to a rib fracture). Also like Ginn, he was hit hard in Double-A when healthy, yielding a 7.02 ERA in 41 frames. He’s not Rule 5-eligible until after the 2024 season, so there’s no rush.

Joey Estes, RHP: Acquired from the Braves alongside Cusick, Estes handled older competition in High-A reasonably well. His 4.55 ERA wasn’t especially eye-catching, but he whiffed 23.8% of his opponents against a strong 7.8% walk rate in 91 innings. Home runs were an issue, but that’s two straight years of nice K-BB numbers against older competition for Estes.

Gunnar Hoglund, RHP: Hoglund would’ve been a top-10 pick in 2021 had he not required Tommy John surgery during his junior year of college, but the Blue Jays still liked him enough to take him at No. 19 and the A’s still liked him enough to make him the headliner in the Matt Chapman deal. Hoglund only pitched eight innings late in the 2022 season as he worked back from that ligament replacement procedure, so he’s nowhere close to the big leagues. His development will be worth keeping an eye on, though. Lefty Zach Logue, acquired alongside Hoglund, has already been designated for assignment, claimed by the Tigers and then passed through waivers in Detroit. He surrendered a 6.79 ERA through 57 innings as a rookie last year and actually posted an even grislier 8.12 ERA in 78 2/3 Triple-A frames.

—

Amazingly, even after all of their recent trades of star-caliber players, the organization’s lone entrant on Baseball America’s Top 100 list is catcher Tyler Soderstrom — who, unlike every single one of the names mentioned prior, was drafted by the A’s. Part of that is borne out of the Athletics’ penchant for prioritizing near-MLB players in trades (as opposed to further off, more highly touted prospects), but it’s still rather surprising to see.

Nevertheless, while the A’s aren’t going to win many games in 2023, they’re brimming with young arms who could eventually hold down spots in the rotation. Attrition rate among young pitchers is enormous, and many of these names will be lost to injury, shift to the bullpen, or pitch themselves off the roster entirely. For now, it’ll be fascinating to see how many of Oakland’s young arms can solidify themselves in the big leagues, because their ability to do so (or lack thereof) will be a driving factor in the latest rebuild phase.

Athletics Notes: Kemp, Vogt, Irvin, Puk

By Steve Adams | October 5, 2022 at 11:33am CDT

The 2022 season has been a disappointing one for A’s second baseman/outfielder Tony Kemp, who’s followed up last year’s .279/.382/.418 slash with a flimsy .235/.308/.335 output through a career-high 554 plate appearances. Kemp, due a raise on his $2.25MM salary in what will be his final trip through the arbitration process, seemingly acknowledged his status as a potential trade or non-tender candidate, telling Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle that he hopes he’ll get the chance to rebound with Oakland next season.

“I want to be with this team,” Kemp said yesterday. “…going into my last year of arbitration I just think that being able to be part of this team would be something special.”

A’s skipper Mark Kotsay gave Kemp a vote of confidence, lauding the 30-year-old’s improved second-half play and touting him as a potential clubhouse leader for the 2023 team. Kemp, to his credit, is hitting .278/.343/.429 in the season’s second half, but the A’s have been focused on shedding payroll since last offseason began; time will tell whether Kemp becomes another step toward that end.

Kemp’s salary next season will by no means break the bank — likely falling shy of the $4MM range. As I noted when previewing Oakland’s upcoming offseason, the A’s don’t have a single dollar committed to next year’s roster at the moment, with Kemp, catcher Sean Murphy, outfielder Ramon Laureano, righty Paul Blackburn and perhaps lefties A.J. Puk and Cole Irvin (depending on this year’s Super Two cutoff) standing as the team’s notable arbitration-eligible players. (Murphy, who drew ample interest prior to the summer trade deadline, figures to generate plenty of interest again this offseason.)

One player who assuredly won’t be back — at least in a playing capacity — is veteran catcher Stephen Vogt, who announced late last month that he’d retire at season’s end. A ten-year veteran with a unique career arc and future managerial aspirations, Vogt seems far from done in with baseball as a whole. Whether the next steps for him are to pursue coaching/managing, front-office work or even a career in the broadcast booth remain to be determined, but the Chronicle’s John Shea spoke to Kotsay, GM David Forst and broadcaster Ken Korach about why Vogt would excel at any of the three.

Kotsay praised Vogt’s ability to have tough conversations with teammates — “telling guys things they need to hear, not things they want to hear” — and cited recent examples of Vogt doing just that. Beyond Kotsay’s own belief that Vogt has a future in managing, he noted to Shea that Brewers manager Craig Counsell, who managed Vogt in 2017, has remarked in the past that Vogt could eventually even be his successor in Milwaukee.

Forst, too, noted Vogt’s leadership traits and “ability to connect with everybody in the clubhouse,” adding that such traits are also important on the front-office side of the game. Forst compared Vogt’s skill set to that of former A’s outfielder and current Phillies general manager Sam Fuld, adding that Vogt will quite likely “be good at whatever he chooses to do.”

The 28-year-old Irvin name-checked Vogt after yesterday’s game, telling reporters that he’s “learned a lot” from Vogt, specifically with regard to his preparation for each start (link via Martin Gallegos of MLB.com). Irvin’s six shutout innings Tuesday dropped his ERA back under 4.00 — a personal goal of his after he’d struggled through a rough patch over the past month or so. The lefty voiced pride in making 30-plus starts in consecutive seasons and, after finishing this year with a career-high 181 innings, noted that reaching 200 frames will be a goal in 2023.

At this point, any A’s player with some success and a potential arbitration salary will draw his share of trade speculation, but Kotsay spoke glowingly of Irvin’s increased role as a leader on the pitching staff and spoke of him as an important piece to the 2023 roster: “I’m looking forward to seeing him again next year.”

Oakland’s acquisition of Irvin didn’t garner much attention at the time, but sending cash to the Phillies following the left-hander’s DFA in late January of 2021 has proven to be one of the best quiet acquisitions the A’s have made in recent years. Over the past two seasons, Irvin has started 62 games and pitched to a combined 4.11 ERA in 359 1/3 innings. The 2022 season saw Irvin make slight improvements in his strikeout rate, walk rate, swinging-strike rate, called-strike rate and opponents’ chase rate over last year’s levels.

Irvin will head into the offseason with two years, 120 days (2.120) of Major League service time. That’ll put him right on the Super Two bubble, potentially setting him up for four trips through the arbitration process, rather than the standard three. The Super Two cutoffs over the last three seasons have been 2.116, 2.125 and 2.115, respectively, so Irvin would’ve made the cut in two of the three seasons. The 27-year-old Puk, who’s saved four games and piled up 20 holds while pitching to a 3.12 ERA in 66 1/3 innings of relief, is in a similar boat with 2.124 years of service time.

A’s Reinstate Cole Irvin

By Darragh McDonald | May 22, 2022 at 2:39pm CDT

The Athletics have announced that left-hander Cole Irvin has been reinstated from the injured list, with infielder Nick Allen being optioned to Triple-A Las Vegas in a corresponding move.

Irvin went on the injured list just over two weeks ago due to soreness in his throwing shoulder. His season had gotten off to a strong start before that, as he threw 27 2/3 innings with a 2.93 ERA. It’s not likely Irvin can sustain that production completely, as he has a meager strikeout rate of 15.9% and a .253 BABIP, suggesting there’s a bit of good fortune helping him out so far. The advanced metrics certainly think so, with FIP placing him at 4.54, xFIP at 4.16 and SIERA at 4.26.

Still, Irvin figures to be an important part of Oakland’s staff moving forward. Daulton Jefferies was recently diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome, a very significant injury that is very difficult to recover from. Even if Jefferies is able to return from the ailment, it will certainly be an extended period of time before that happens. The rotation now consists of Irvin, Frankie Montas, Paul Blackburn, James Kaprielian and Zach Logue.

Even if that crew manages to stay healthy for the next few months, the club might have to rely on their depth starters either way, as Montas is expected to be one of the most highly-targeted trade candidates as the August 2 deadline approaches. Montas was hit on his hand by a comebacker and left last night’s game, though it seems that was mostly precautionary. Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle relays word from Montas, who is playing catch today without pain. Adam Oller and Adrian Martinez have already been recalled to make starts for the big league club this year and would likely be the top options the next time a depth starter is needed.

A’s Place Cole Irvin On Injured List

By Anthony Franco | May 6, 2022 at 6:35pm CDT

6:35pm: Irvin has shoulder tendinitis, manager Mark Kotsay told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). Kotsay isn’t ruling out the possibility of Irvin returning when first eligible on May 17.

12:55pm: The Athletics announced this afternoon that starting pitcher Cole Irvin has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to May 2, due to soreness in his throwing shoulder. Fellow southpaw Zach Logue has been recalled from Triple-A Las Vegas to take his spot on the active roster. Martín Gallegos of MLB.com tweets that Logue is expected to start this evening’s game in Minnesota.

Irvin’s shoulder soreness cropped up between starts during the week. The still-nebulous diagnosis and lack of a timetable provided by the team leave it unclear how long he’ll be sidelined. Irvin will miss at least a couple starts, though, as the return of the 15-day IL for pitchers is now in effect after being suspended for the first month of the season.

Acquired from the Phillies over the 2020-21 offseason for cash considerations, Irvin has stepped directly into the A’s rotation and proven a nice find. He made 32 starts and tossed 178 1/3 innings last year, posting a reasonable 4.24 ERA in spite of a lack of velocity or swing-and-miss stuff. Throughout his minor league career, he’d demonstrated excellent control. That strike-throwing prowess has carried over to the majors, as Irvin walked a meager 5.5% of batters faced. His pitch-to-contact style played better in front of an excellent A’s defense and in Oakland’s cavernous home ballpark than it had in Philadelphia, where he’d gotten terrible results in limited action between 2019-20.

The 28-year-old Irvin got off to another solid beginning this year. Through five starts, he owns a 2.93 ERA in 27 2/3 innings despite a subpar 15.9% strikeout rate. He’s again thrown plenty of strikes and seen an early uptick in ground-balls relative to last year. While he’s sidelined, the A’s will need to plug a rotation spot behind Frankie Montas, James Kaprielian, Daulton Jefferies and Paul Blackburn.

Adam Oller, acquired from the Mets in the Chris Bassitt trade this past offseason, has been the top rotation depth candidate in the early going. He’s not fared well in his first three MLB appearances, though, and he tossed three innings with Las Vegas on Tuesday after being optioned out.

Like Oller, Logue was acquired as part of the A’s Spring Training sell-off. The 26-year-old was one of four players sent from the Jays in the Matt Chapman deal. He made his MLB debut in relief last month but will now get his first big league start. Over four starts with the Aviators, he has a 5.63 ERA in 16 innings.

This Date In Transactions History: January 30

By Mark Polishuk | January 30, 2022 at 6:20pm CDT

Let’s take a look back at some notable moves taking place on this day in years past…

2021: The Blue Jays officially announced their one-year, $18MM deal with Marcus Semien, as the two sides agreed to the contract a few days prior. In the aftermath of a disappointing 2020 season with the A’s, Semien opted for the one-year pact with Toronto in order to rebuild his free agent value with a better performance in 2021. This plan worked to perfection, as Semien finished third in AL MVP voting after hitting .265/.334/.538 with 45 home runs (a new single-season record for a second baseman). Semien then cashed in during his most recent trip to the open market, signing a seven-year, $175MM contract with the Rangers signed prior to the lockout.
2021: In another notable move completed one year ago, the Athletics acquired Cole Irvin from the Phillies in exchange for cash considerations. Irvin hadn’t done much over 45 1/3 career innings with Philadelphia, but the southpaw emerged as a valuable member of Oakland’s rotation last year, posting a 4.24 ERA over 178 1/3 innings. While the Statcast metrics weren’t kind to Irvin and questions remain as to whether or not he can stick as a reliable starting pitcher, and yet for the cost of just a minor cash outlay, the trade was already a win for the A’s. It is possible Irvin wouldn’t have broken out without a change of scenery, and yet the deal doesn’t look great in hindsight for the Phillies, especially considering the Phils spent much of the season looking for consistency at the back of their rotation.
2016: Jean Segura was traded for the second of four times in his career, as the Diamondbacks acquired Segura and right-hander Tyler Wagner from the Brewers for a package of Chase Anderson, Isan Diaz, Aaron Hill, and $5.5MM to cover part of Hill’s remaining salary. Segura’s lone season in Arizona was the best of his career (.319/.368/.499 with 20 homers as part of a 5.0 fWAR campaign), but it wasn’t enough to keep the D’Backs from a 93-loss season. With Mike Hazen taking over as Arizona’s GM in the aftermath of that rough season, Segura found himself on the move again in November 2016, traded to the Mariners in another notable swap that brought Ketel Marte to the desert. From Milwaukee’s perspective, their Segura trade ended up being a nice win. Anderson became a solid member of the rotation for four seasons, while Diaz was part of the prospect package the Brewers sent to the Marlins to land Christian Yelich.
2006: Hey, remember when Mike Piazza played for the Padres? The Hall-of-Famer spent only one season in a Friars uniform, but it was a memorable one, sparked when Piazza signed a one-year, $2MM deal (with an $8MM mutual option for 2007). Getting the bulk of playing time as San Diego’s starting catcher, Piazza still plenty left in the tank at age 37, hitting .283/.342/.501 with 22 home runs over 439 PA. Piazza’s big year helped the Padres win the NL West, but the team declined their end of the mutual option after the season.
1954: Bobby Thomson’s legendary home run helped THE GIANTS WIN THE PENNANT in 1951, but it can be argued that trading Thomson helped the Giants win the World Series in 1954. On this day 68 years ago, the then-New York Giants picked up left-handers Johnny Antonelli and Don Liddle, backup catcher Ebba St. Claire, infielder Billy Klaus and $50K in cash from the then-Milwaukee Braves in exchange for Thomson and catcher Sam Calderone. Antonelli became a fixture of the Giants rotation for the next seven seasons, reaching six All-Star games and posting a league-best 2.30 ERA in 1954. Liddle was also a solid arm for New York in 1954, and might be best remembered for allowing the long Vic Wertz fly ball that required Willie Mays to make “The Catch” in Game 1 of the 1954 World Series. Brought into the game specifically to face Wertz, Liddle was removed after facing his one batter — according to legend, Liddle then wisecracked “well, I got my man” in mock-bragging fashion after leaving the game.
1923: It’s not quite the most famous example of the Red Sox trading a future Hall-of-Famer to the Yankees, since it’s not like Boston fans bemoaned “The Curse Of Herb Pennock.” Still, the Yankees never won a World Series before Pennock came to the Bronx, dealt from Boston for $50K and three players who were all gone from the Sox roster by 1925. Pennock was already a 10-year veteran with a solid career behind him at the time of the trade, but after a couple of relative down years in 1921 and 1922, the Sox were ready to move on. Pennock went on to pitch 11 seasons with the Yankees, posting a 3.54 ERA over 2203 1/3 innings and helping New York win four Series championships. The southpaw was at his best in October, with a 1.95 ERA over 55 1/3 career innings in World Series play.

Pitcher Notes: Dodgers, Gray, E-Rod, Yankees, Fiers

By Connor Byrne and Anthony Franco | March 27, 2021 at 2:53pm CDT

The Dodgers are still deciding among fifth starter options, manager Dave Roberts informed Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times and other reporters Friday. Southpaw David Price is competing against righties Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin, who impressed as rookies during the Dodgers’ 2020 World Series-winning campaign. As a five-time All-Star and a former AL Cy Young winner, Price certainly carries the best track record of the three – not to mention the highest salary – but he didn’t pitch at all last season after opting out over COVID-19 concerns. Any of those three would join Trevor Bauer, Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urías in what will be a loaded season-opening starting five.

The latest on a few more pitchers around the game:

Reds righty Sonny Gray, who has been dealing with a back problem for a couple of weeks, came out of a sim game unscathed Friday, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. After throwing two innings and 30 pitches, Gray said, “I felt good. It was definitely a step in the right direction.” Gray will start the season on the injured list, but he doesn’t expect to miss much time. That’s uplifting news for a Reds starting staff that lost the aforementioned Bauer during the offseason.
Eduardo Rodríguez was recently set back by a dead arm but seemed to make some progress this morning. The Red Sox left-hander came out of a bullpen session feeling good about his chances of soon returning to game action, although a season-opening injured list stint remains a possibility (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com and Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). Manager Alex Cora says the club will evaluate how Rodríguez feels tomorrow before making any decisions about his recovery timeline.
The Yankees have optioned right-hander Deivi García to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, according to a team announcement. The move suggests Domingo Germán will enter the season as the No. 5 in the Yankees’ rotation behind Gerrit Cole, Corey Kluber, Jameson Taillon and Jordan Montgomery, though odds are that García will make his share of starts this season. The 21-year-old, a former top 100 prospect, made his debut last season with a 4.98 ERA/4.21 SIERA with a 22.6 percent strikeout rate against a stingy 4.1 percent walk rate in 34 1/3 innings.
Athletics righty Mike Fiers will begin the season on the injured list, manager Bob Melvin announced to Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle and other reporters. Fiers has been dealing with left hip inflammation since midway through the month and hasn’t faced live hitters during his recovery. His injury could open the door for any of Daulton Jefferies, Cole Irvin or A.J. Puk to at least temporarily join the A’s rotation. Fiers tied for the A’s lead in starts (11) and finished second in innings (59) last season, but he struggled to a 4.58 ERA/5.41 SIERA and managed a personal-worst 14.4 percent K rate.

AL West Notes: Correa, France, Athletics

By Steve Adams | March 11, 2021 at 2:14pm CDT

Astros shortstop Carlos Correa projects as one of the top free agents on next year’s market, though both he and the team have made clear that they hope to hammer out an extension before he reaches the market. Correa told reporters today that those talks have yet to begin, noting that the finger injury to Framber Valdez and the front office’s subsequent negotiations with free agents may have delayed the beginning of talks (Twitter link, with video, via Mark Berman of FOX 26). Correa was understanding of that and remains motivated to talk contract, though as is often the case with extension candidates, he placed a firm Opening Day deadline on any talks for a new deal. Houston GM James Click said in late February that the Astros “want to have some conversations” with Correa’s camp to see if the two sides can align on a deal to keep him long term.

Astros fans may also be interested to hear skipper Dusty Baker talk of Correa as a potential leadoff candidate in 2021. Correa hit leadoff today and told reporters he’s excited for the possibility of taking on that challenge (video link via Berman). Leadoff duties have traditionally been George Springer’s department in Houston, of course, but his departure creates a vacancy atop the lineup.

Athletics Acquire Cole Irvin From Phillies

By Anthony Franco | January 30, 2021 at 1:17pm CDT

1:17 pm: Both teams have announced the trade. Oakland’s 40-man roster is now full.

11:00 am: The Athletics are picking up left-hander Cole Irvin in exchange for cash considerations in a deal with the Phillies, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Irvin’s departure will clear a spot on the 40-man roster for Matt Moore, who agreed to terms on a one-year deal earlier this week. Another move will need to be made to accommodate Didi Gregorius’ addition to the roster once his two-year deal is finalized.

Irvin, 27 tomorrow, has picked up nineteen MLB appearances (three starts) over the past two seasons. Across 45.2 innings, he has a 6.75 ERA/4.87 SIERA. He doesn’t miss many bats; his 17.2% strikeout rate is well below the league average of 23.4%. However, Irvin compiled a long track record of throwing strikes in the minors and has continued to do so at the highest level, walking only 6.9% of opposing hitters as a big leaguer.

The southpaw twice ranked among Baseball America’s top thirty prospects in the Phillies’ system. He still has a minor-league option remaining, meaning the A’s can shuffle him between the majors and Triple-A Las Vegas if he survives the offseason on the 40-man roster.

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