From the moment the Yankees originally acquired Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Twins, the expectation has been that he’d serve as a bridge to top infield prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe. At the time of the trade — which also saw Josh Donaldson and Ben Rortvedt go the Bronx while sending Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela to Minnesota — Kiner-Falefa had two years of club control remaining. That generally aligned with the timetables for both Peraza and Volpe, allowing them to develop in ’22 while Kiner-Falefa held down shortstop before perhaps moving into a utility role.
That’s generally how it’s played out. Peraza impressed in an 18-game cup of coffee late in the 2022 season and entered camp with a chance to break the Opening Day roster as the Yankees’ everyday shortstop. Volpe entered spring training as a longer shot to make the Opening Day roster for a variety of reasons. He’s a year younger than Peraza, has just 99 plate appearances above the Double-A level and is not currently on the 40-man roster. Still, he’s turned in an impressive spring training and begun to see some time at second base, further planting the seed that he could be in the Majors alongside Peraza sooner than later — certainly at some point in 2023.
The looming ascension of both Peraza and Volpe is enough to cloud Kiner-Falefa’s role on the team on its own, but last year’s strong debut from the versatile Oswaldo Cabrera only adds to the pile-up of infield talent. The switch-hitting 24-year-old worked primarily in the outfield last year but has experience at all four infield spots. After hitting .247/.312/.429 in 171 plate appearances as a 23-year-old rookie, he’s staked his claim to a spot on this year’s roster as well.
The Yankees were aware of this depth but still saw value in holding onto Kiner-Falefa at a generally reasonable $6MM price point for his final season of club control. Spring injuries are always possible, and there was certainly a scenario where any combination of Peraza, Volpe and/or Cabrera got to spring training and looked vastly overmatched at the plate. That hasn’t really been the case, and it’s made Kiner-Falefa’s role on the 2023 club look a bit more questionable — particularly with Gleyber Torres still penciled in at second base and Donaldson returning at the hot corner.
To that end, the Yankees have begun getting Kiner-Falefa some reps in the outfield. The 27-year-old said just this morning that he expects to play center field in Friday’s Grapefruit League game (Twitter link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). With Harrison Bader out for the first several weeks of the season due to an oblique strain, Kiner-Falefa could bolster his value to the Yankees if he looks capable of handling some reps on the grass, be it in center field or in left. Aaron Judge or Aaron Hicks can both handle all three outfield spots, so strictly excelling in center isn’t necessarily a requirement for Kiner-Falefa.
That said, it’s hard not to recognize the possibility of a Kiner-Falefa trade coming together at some point. The Yankees, after all, have been loath to cross the fourth and final luxury tax barrier. Their backs are right up against that threshold at the moment, and dealing Kiner-Falefa would trim $6MM off that luxury bill, creating some breathing room that could be a key for the front office this summer when the trade deadline is looming.
Beyond that, Kiner-Falefa is still a useful utility option for a team that perhaps doesn’t have as much infield depth as the Yankees — and perhaps even a starting-caliber option on a handful of clubs. Defensive metrics are split on his glovework at shortstop, but he can at the very least handle the position and has won a Gold Glove at third base. He’s a capable second baseman, has experience catching and could be an emergency option behind the dish, and now he’s at least familiarizing himself with the outfield.
At the plate, Kiner-Falefa isn’t a standout but can at least provide a solid batting average and get on base at a roughly league-average clip. He lacks power but also has plus bat-to-ball skills. The .269/.316/.348 slash he’s authored over the past three seasons is about 14% worse than league average, by measure of wRC+. It’s not good, but Kiner-Falefa is far from a black hole at the plate and has value with the glove and on the bases, where he’s gone 42-for-51 (82.4%) in stolen bases over the past two seasons.
Kiner-Falefa’s fit with the Yankees isn’t as clean as it was before Peraza, Volpe and Cabrera were MLB-ready or extremely close to it, but there’s probably still a role for him if Volpe opens the season in Triple-A. Even if the Yankees hold onto Kiner-Falefa, however, he could be pushed out of the picture by midseason if all of Peraza, Volpe and Cabrera remain healthy. A trade at some point, whether this summer or even before Opening Day, shouldn’t come as a shock — especially considering the aforementioned luxury-tax benefits a deal would bring about.
The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner opined in this morning’s mailbag column that he thinks the Yankees will explore a Kiner-Falefa trade between now and Opening Day. That certainly doesn’t mean a deal will come together, but it’s a good indicator of what could be on the horizon with regard to the versatile infielder’s future in the Bronx.
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