An elite rotation has been one of the key features of the Astros’ run of success in recent years. Justin Verlander headlined the staff for the past four-plus seasons while the club saw the likes of Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and José Urquidy step up as player development success stories.
Even after Verlander’s departure, Houston has one of the stronger top-of-the-rotation groups in the sport. Valdez is a borderline Cy Young contender. Javier misses bats at an elite rate and just secured a $64MM contract extension. Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. have each shown #2/3 starter capabilities in recent years. Urquidy isn’t as high-octane but he’s a perfectly solid back-end starter with excellent control. Just behind that group is Hunter Brown, arguably one of the sport’s five best pitching prospects who allowed only two runs in his first 20 2/3 MLB innings late last season.
It’s a group with immense upside, although the injury bug has already hit before Opening Day. McCullers won’t be ready for the start of the season thanks to a muscle strain in his throwing arm and, as of yesterday, had still not been cleared to begin playing catch (relayed by Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Even if there doesn’t prove to be a long-term concern, the Astros will surely be without McCullers for a little while in the early going. That, in itself, might not be a huge issue considering Brown can step into the vacated rotation spot. Yet one more injury could start to test Houston’s depth, forcing them to tap into a group of mostly unproven hurlers from the upper minors. Let’s look through some of the depth options whom manager Dusty Baker could need to rely upon if anyone else from his top five goes down.
Despite turning 28 within a week of Opening Day, France has zero MLB experience. The club thought highly enough of him to add him to the 40-man roster in November to ensure they didn’t lose him in the Rule 5 draft, however. The 6’0″ righty started 15 of 34 outings with Triple-A Sugar Land last season, working to a 3.90 ERA with a strong 28.3% strikeout percentage but a concerning 10.6% walk rate in 110 2/3 innings. Baseball America slotted him as the organization’s #21 prospect this winter, praising his deceptive delivery and a five-pitch mix of mostly average stuff but raising questions about the consistency of his strike-throwing.
Once regarded by many as the sport’s most talented pitching prospect, Whitley has seen his stock plummet since he reached Double-A as a 20-year-old five seasons back. He’s now 25 and still hasn’t gotten to the big leagues, though the Astros have kept him on the 40-man roster over the past two seasons. He underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2021 and lost a good chunk of the last couple years rehabbing. Whitley returned for ten outings in Sugar Land, serving up a 7.09 ERA while walking almost 16% of opposing hitters in 33 innings.
It’s not uncommon for pitchers to struggle with their control in their immediate returns after a Tommy John rehab, but the clock is ticking for Whitley to establish any kind of role on the Houston staff. He currently has one minor league option year remaining. While the Astros could perhaps petition for a fourth option next offseason in light of Whitley’s injury and a 2018 suspension for a violation of the minor league drug of abuse policy, it’s worth wondering whether they’d hold him on the 40-man roster for another winter if he doesn’t at least take a step forward in Triple-A. Baseball America now considers him the #28 prospect in the Houston system.
Added to the 40-man roster over the 2021-22 offseason, Durbin spent all of last year on optional assignment to Sugar Land. He lost some time to a forearm strain and worked in a hybrid role when he took the mound, starting only 12 of 23 outings. Over 58 1/3 frames, he posted a 4.78 ERA with an excellent 32.1% strikeout rate but an untenable 12.9% walk rate. Barring a major step forward with his control, he’d figure to be more of a bullpen option for the big league club. BA slotted him 25th in the organizational prospect list, projecting him as a multi-inning reliever.
Unlike the three pitchers above him on this list, Bielak has some MLB experience. He’s appeared in 45 games over the past three seasons but started just eight, none of which came last year. Soon to be 27, the 6’2″ righty has a 5.15 ERA over 94 1/3 career big league frames. He continued to work mostly as a starter in Triple-A, opening 14 of his 23 appearances last year. In 88 2/3 innings there, he put up a strong 3.15 ERA but with more middling strikeout and walk numbers (22.2% and 11.1%, respectively). Bielak has held a 40-man roster spot since the summer of 2020 and has one option year remaining.
Signed to a minor league contract with a non-roster Spring Training invitation, Garcia had been a reliever for his entire career until the second half of last season. The Tigers stretched him out as a starter in Triple-A in the middle of July. Garcia made 11 starts for their top affiliate in Toledo and took the ball four times at the big league level. While he only allowed eight runs in 20 1/3 MLB innings, he had a pedestrian 17:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Detroit cut him loose at season’s end, sending him to minor league free agency after he went unclaimed on waivers.
Misael Tamarez/Jaime Melendez/Jayden Murray
Each of this group logged some upper minors work last season, mostly in Double-A. They’ve all garnered fairly recent consideration in the back half of the Astros’ top 30 organizational prospects but none is seen as an obvious rotation piece for 2023. Any of the trio could pitch their way into consideration at some point but they all figure to begin the year in the minors, particularly since none has yet claimed a spot on the 40-man roster.
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It isn’t a group of depth starters with much big league experience. While that might not be a pressing concern out of the gate, it’s virtually unheard of for a club to navigate a 162-game schedule reliant upon only five or six starters. Between McCullers’ injury and perhaps a desire to keep an eye on Brown’s workload — he threw 126 1/3 innings last season between Triple-A and the big leagues — it stands to reason the front office could still look into an addition or two.
Players like Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy and Michael Pineda remain unsigned and look like minor league deal candidates at this stage of the offseason. Bringing in someone from that group or scouring the waiver wire for help would make sense for first-year general manager Dana Brown, who has spoken a few times about his desire to stockpile as much rotation depth as possible. The Astros have enough impact talent at the top of the staff they don’t need any splashy acquisitions but there’s plenty of room to augment the group in the upper minors with a veteran.
Jake Odorizzi? They get to keep paying him anyways.
The Braves are actually paying 10 million of 12.5 this year. The Astros were foolish enough to trade a cheap starter with a sub-4 ERA for a reliever making 13 million with an ERA above 4. The Braves were smart to make this move tbh. The trade to Texas for Kolby Allard with most of his salary, on the other hand was not too good… just look at what Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles got on the open market despite being significantly worse. That still doesn’t take away from the genius of the first deal. I also find it funny Texas ended up with both of them this year for a combined 4 million guaranteed.
I watched many of Jake’s starts last year with the Astros. I was happy the day they traded him. It wasn’t a foolish deal. He didn’t know how good he had it here and chose to run his mouth in the media despite his struggles to get past the 4th inning. Good luck with him. He’s not a team player.
destupid doesn’t know, Odorizzi was the worst SP I have watched pitch for the Astros in the last 5 years no doubt. Good move getting rid of him, he bombed half the time he took the mound.
Learn to read first and then comment. It’s a significant weakness of yours. It will save you quite a bit of embarrassment.
12.5MM is cheap for below average production? There are better SP out there right now that can give you similar production for the min. And the Astros declined the 13MM option on Smith. But I do think it was funny that that poster called you destupid lol.
Read what I said. It’s 2.5 million for Texas. The other guy has nothing good about his life, so he cuts down on others. Imagine how miserable you would have to be to go on the internet just to bring others down to your level of misery.
Please no Odor-easy. Worst starting pitcher I’ve ever seen. Was extremely lucky or else his ERA would have been in the stratosphere. Archer as depth would be good.
Astros expect to add a member to their rotation in FRANCE !!
The Astros have been running a pithing factory for 10 years or so.
Rather than “Inexperienced Rotation Depth” what they have are a group of talented young pitchers that can be used as back of the rotation starters if the need is there, allowing them to slowly break into pitching in the majors.
Why they would rather give those innings to Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy or Michael Pineda is something that appears to be antithetical to the way one of the best – if not the best – organization in MLB operates.
If in fact they need a solid ML veteran pitcher during the season they’ll trade for a good one – but only if they find any of their in-house candidates aren’t ready yet.
Yep . I doubt they’ll need one too.
There’s enough depth there to be OK. The minors has thinned out a bit for them with players graduating/trades & the draft pick loss they’ve gone through. Would be surprised to see a deal happen unless a major injury happens between now and the deadline.
this group is older and less shiny than the talented young high minors pitching they have begun the year with recently; while im sure they will either find two great starters from this group or not have any need for any of them to come up, letting those older guys guys pitch in aaa hoping to find what they formerly had or teach their inexperienced guys what they know is not such a crazy concept
I bet the Astros coaching staff is much better at teaching than Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer.
Those guys just don’t have the same arms anymore. More likely they’ll find any additional depth off the waiver wire or a small deal, IMO
Bingo. Valdez, Garica, Urquidy, and Javier were all “young and unproven” at one time, and only two were particularly well-know prospects.
Yeah you can look at the starting depth of any of the top teams and nobody is tremendously deep. One or two major injuries to any starting rotation is going to be impactful, but I don’t necessarily see the ‘Stros as any more worse off than anyone else. Who really has starting pitching coming out of their ears besides perhaps Cleveland and Los Angeles?? (Anaheim looks fairly robust as well imho, which is sort of weird to say out loud.)
Thus, trade a good reliever for Dane Dunning. Problem solved!
shhh… Dunning at AAA is great depth for us. Don’t give them any ideas lol
It was not fun to watch Archer or Bundy last year but I blame some of that on ineffective coaching and a skipper with an itchy finger.
So how do u take a group of unheralded prospects and turn them into one of the best rotations in baseball ?? YOU CHEAT !
THAT was a BIG WHIFF from you Big whiffa !!!
awww poor Los Karen crybaby making an appearance.
Show me a team that has quality, experienced starting pitching depth beyond their top 5. I don’t think that exists.
@Remember, the Mets. They have both Peterson and Megill outside their #1-5. They are the exception and not the rule though. Most teams #5 is not even all that solidified let alone depth beyond 5th spot.
We are at the point of splitting hairs reporting on the inadequacies of Houston’s pitching staff.
They won’t necessarily go with some starting pitcher. They’ll bring up someone and tandem the relief pitchers. A couple of them want a chance to be starters anyway.
Who in HOU bullpen wants to b a starter?? Pressley, Montero, Nerris, Abreau, Stanek, etc… All have had success pitching out of pen. I see most only hurting their value given 5-10 starts.
Someone, every year without fail, it seems for the last 15 years, speculates that the Astros should sign Chris Archer. I hereby officially state: The Astros should sign Chris Archer. I don’t believe it, but we have a tradition to uphold. 16th [?] year.