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Forrest Whitley

Astros Promote Forrest Whitley

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2:28pm: The Astros made it official, announcing Whitley’s recall with Spencer Arrighetti optioned in a corresponding move. Arrighetti’s rotation spot will likely be taken by Justin Verlander, who is expecting to be activated off the injured list shortly.

12:31pm: The Astros are recalling former top prospect Forrest Whitley for his first MLB promotion, reports Michael Schwab of the Juice Box Journal (X link). He’s already on the 40-man roster, so they’ll only need to make a corresponding active roster transaction.

Whitley, now 26, took a circuitous route to the majors. He was a first-round pick in 2016 out of a San Antonio high school. The 6’7″ righty dominated for his first year and a half, pitching his way to Double-A as a teenager. By 2018, he looked the part of a potential ace and the top pitching prospect in the sport.

Things haven’t played out the way Whitley or the Astros envisioned from that point. He was hit with a 50-game suspension for violating the minor league drug policy going into the ’18 season. Whitley battled shoulder issues the following year and lost his feel for the strike zone. The canceled 2020 campaign cost him another year of reps, although Houston nevertheless made the easy call to select him onto the 40-man roster to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

Whitley has held that spot ever since, although it didn’t always seem as if that were a guarantee. He underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2021 and posted subpar results when he returned. His control issues resurfaced as he pitched to a 6.53 ERA in the upper minors in 2022. He got off to another rough start last season before sustaining a lat strain that ended his year in May. The Astros were granted a fourth minor league option as a result of Whitley’s injury history.

The front office decided to keep him on the 40-man roster throughout last offseason. They moved him to the bullpen this year upon optioning him to Triple-A Sugar Land. Whitley hasn’t gotten off to a great start, allowing four runs on a trio of homers in three innings, but he’s a fresh arm for a bullpen that has been tasked with 71 innings through the season’s first three weeks. Only the Dodgers and Padres — who leaned heavily on their relief groups during their abbreviated series in Seoul a week before every other team’s Opening Day — have used their bullpens more heavily than Houston has.

While Whitley’s promotion isn’t going to be met with the same level of fanfare as it would have a few years ago, it’s surely rewarding for the righty all the same. It’s the culmination of a nearly eight-year climb through the minors that has been littered with injury setbacks. It could prove to be a fairly brief call — Houston may need to continue cycling through middle relievers until their rotation finds any kind of groove — but he could get the chance to make his debut.

Astros Notes: Verlander, Whitley, McCormick

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Astros ace Justin Verlander discussed his ongoing shoulder issues with reporters (including Chandler Rome of The Athletic) today, and his comments shed little light on whether the veteran righty will be able to take the mound on Opening Day next month.

“We still got some time, obviously it’s tight, but things are progressing,” Verlander told reporters, as relayed by Rome. “…We’re not even looking a week out or two weeks out, so it’s kind of hard to forecast anything past that.”

Verlander went on to make clear that he’s feeling no discomfort in his shoulder, adding that “Every day I touch the mound has been progression.” While the veteran ace has yet to face live hitting this spring, Rome adds that manager Joe Espada indicated Verlander could start to face live hitting “at some point” after his next bullpen session, adding that said bullpen would likely “determine” Verlander’s readiness for Opening Day.

Verlander, who celebrated his 41st birthday last week, followed up his AL Cy Young award winning campaign in 2022 with a solid 2023 split between the Mets and Astros. In 27 starts between the two clubs, the right-hander pitched to a strong 3.22 ERA in 162 1/3 innings of work. That being said, his 21.5% strikeout rate last year was the lowest he had posted since 2015, leaving him with a 3.85 FIP that puts him closer to “solid mid-rotation arm” than “surefire ace.” Even if Verlander isn’t the dominant pitcher he was in his late 30s now that he’s entered his 40s, however, the right-hander figures to be a key piece of the Astros rotation alongside Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier. Should Verlander miss time to start the season, that would likely leave Houston to lean more heavily on their back-of-the-rotation arms such as Jose Urquidy and Hunter Brown.

More from out of Houston…

  • Espada also provided an update regarding the status of right-hander Forrest Whitley, who Rome relays has been dealing with inflammation in his middle finger. Espada indicated that while that inflammation has now subsided, Whitley will be sat down for the next week on a no-throw program. Once a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport, the Astros’ first-round pick in the 2016 draft has not yet made his big league debut despite being on the 40-man roster since 2020 due to a lengthy injury history and a 50-game suspension for violating the league’s drug policy. Whitley has struggled badly as a started at the Triple-A level, with an 8.04 ERA in 87 1/3 career innings at the level, but figures to work exclusively out of the bullpen going forward and entered camp with a chance to compete for a spot in the club’s bullpen this spring.
  • Outfielder Chas McCormick is expected to step into a larger role with Houston in 2024, as MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart notes that both Espada and GM Dana Brown have indicated that McCormick will be an everyday player this season. The 28-year-old slashed an impressive .273/.353/.489 (133 wRC+) last year but appeared in only 115 games while making 457 trips to the plate. The retirement of veteran left fielder Michael Brantley has opened up additional playing time in the club’s outfield mix, however, and it appears that McCormick could be a major beneficiary of that playing time. With Jake Meyers as the club’s likely starting center fielder, that figures to push McCormick to left for the most part, though McTaggart indicates that McCormick could see time in center on days where Yainer Diaz moves from behind the plate to DH, pushing superstar slugger Yordan Alvarez into left field.

Astros GM: No Interest In Trading Alex Bregman

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Astros general manager Dana Brown spoke with reporters at this week’s Winter Meetings. Most notably, the second-year baseball operations leader emphatically shot down speculation about the possibility of moving star third baseman Alex Bregman.

“We’re not interested in trading him,” Brown said (video provided by Chandler Rome of the Athletic). “I think Alex knows that and understands that based on our conversations, so I’m not worried one bit about the articles and the rumors. At the end of the day, Alex is a pillar here. … We’re trying to win here.”

That’s a rather firm rejection of any suggestion the Astros could look to deal the two-time All-Star before his final season under contract. Bregman will make $28.5MM next year and hit free agency going into his age-31 campaign. Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote over the weekend that while the Houston organization wasn’t optimistic about the chances of another extension, they had no intention of trading him.

With Houston still firmly in win-now mode as they battle with the World Series champion Rangers (and perhaps the Mariners or Angels) atop the AL West, it’s an understandable course of action. Bregman remains an excellent player, hitting .262/.363/.441 with 25 home runs while appearing in 161 games last season. While his production has dropped from his MVP finalist level of 2018-19, he’s still one of the sport’s best third basemen.

Brown also discussed a few other matters. He noted the club received a fourth minor league option on right-hander Forrest Whitley (via Rome). The one-time top prospect is apparently being moved to relief, as he’ll compete for a bullpen spot in Spring Training. Brown indicated a few months ago that Houston would seek an additional option on Whitley, who has missed extended time in the minor leagues because of various injuries and a 2018 suspension for a violation of the drug program. Whitley has yet to make his major league debut despite being on the 40-man roster since 2020.

Upgrading the relief corps still seems a priority for a front office that saw each of Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton hit free agency. Brown reiterated that bolstering the bullpen and adding a backup catcher remained offseason goals, although he hinted he might be cautious on the relief front. “I’m not interested in overpaying in the relief market,” he told the Houston beat (relayed by Brian McTaggart of MLB.com).

Astros To Seek Fourth Option Season For Forrest Whitley

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It has been another injury-wrecked season for former top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley. The right-hander was diagnosed with a lat strain at the start of June, an injury that initially came with a three-plus month recovery timetable.

Over the weekend, general manager Dana Brown indicated that Whitley was unlikely to return this season (link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic). Brown pushed back against the notion that the 25-year-old hurler had suffered a setback but conceded he hasn’t been able to “get over the hump” in his rehab.

Initially added to the 40-man roster before the 2021 season, Whitley has yet to get to the big leagues. He has spent the past three years on optional assignment to the minors, where he’d spent an unfortunate amount of time on the injured list. Most players can be optioned to the minors in a maximum of three separate seasons. After that, the team is required to keep the player on the major league roster or take him off the 40-man entirely (thereby making him available to other teams via trade or waivers). This is Whitley’s third option year.

However, Brown said the Astros will petition MLB for a fourth option season on Whitley (via Rome). That’s available in the case of players who have exhausted their options before logging five full professional seasons — defined as 90+ days on a minor league or MLB active roster. That’s a rare occurrence but sometimes applies to players who have missed extended time with injuries and/or suspension.

Whitley has missed chunks of minor league action for both reasons. He was suspended for a violation of the minor league drug program in 2018, keeping him to eight starts that year. He battled shoulder issues the next season, then was kept out of game action by the pandemic cancelation of the minors in 2020. Whitley underwent Tommy John surgery in Spring Training 2021 and only returned towards the tail end of last season. It appears as though he won’t log any more game action this year, with his final appearance coming on May 25.

That’d seem to give the Astros a good shot of being granted an additional option, though the team won’t know for certain until the offseason. It’s not guaranteed he’ll be on the Houston roster next March regardless, as the Astros would have to keep him on the 40-man roster all offseason. Whitley’s prospect stock has plummeted thanks to the various injury concerns and performance questions during his intermittent game action. He was hit hard in 30 Triple-A innings this season, allowing a 5.70 ERA. He posted a solid 23.7% strikeout rate but walked almost 13% of opposing batters.

Forrest Whitley Out 3-4 Months With Lat Strain

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Astros minor league pitcher Forrest Whitley has been diagnosed with a lat strain and will miss between three and four months, the club announced today (relayed by Chandler Rome of the Athletic). That timetable puts his 2023 campaign in jeopardy.

It’s the latest brutal blow for a player who was once among the sport’s top prospects. Whitley was a first round draftee in 2016 and looked like a potential top-of-the-rotation starter early in his pro career. Baseball America ranked the 6’7″ hurler among the sport’s ten most promising minor leaguers in both 2018 and ’19.

Things have unfortunately gone sharply downhill since then. Whitley was suspended for a violation of the minor league drug program in 2018, keeping him to eight starts that year. He battled shoulder issues the next season, then was kept out of game action by the pandemic cancelation of the minors in 2020. Whitley underwent Tommy John surgery in Spring Training 2021 and only returned towards the tail end of last season.

Whitley opened this year back in Triple-A Sugar Land. He surrendered a 5.70 ERA over 30 innings while struggling to throw strikes. Whitley’s 23.7% strikeout rate was solid but he walked nearly 13% of opposing hitters. He’s had scattershot command the past few years, though that’s not especially surprising since the injuries have prevented him from staying on the mound consistently.

The Astros added Whitley to the 40-man roster after the 2020 season to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He has still yet to reach the majors. This is his third minor league option year. Most players can only be sent to the minors in three separate seasons before being exposed to waivers. Exceptions are sometimes made for players who’ve spent a significant chunk of time on the injured list, however. Whitley would seem a prime candidate for a fourth option. That likely won’t be known until next offseason.

Houston will have to weigh whether it’s worth keeping Whitley on the 40-man regardless. They could clear a spot in-season by placing him on the MLB 60-day IL and paying him a major league salary for time spent rehabbing. There’s no injured list over the offseason and Whitley will be five years removed from the peak of his prospect stock if he doesn’t return this season.

Quick Hits: Astros, Santana, Pagan, Muncy, Miller

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The Astros don’t have an off-day until June 12, so the team had been considering moving to a six-man rotation to help keep their starters fresh during this busy stretch of the schedule.  However, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including the Houston Chronicle’s Danielle Lerner) that the team might be forced to stick with a five-man alignment just due to a lack of available starting depth, since prospect Forrest Whitley has been placed on the Triple-A injured list due to a right lat strain.  Whitley was the team’s top option for a spot start or two, and now Ronel Blanco might be the next candidate if Houston does indeed opt for a sixth starter.

Jose Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. aren’t expected back until around the All-Star break, while Luis Garcia’s season has already been ended by Tommy John surgery.  The injury situation has left the Astros short on starting pitching, and Whitley’s lat strain has again delayed his MLB debut.  Once one of the sport’s top prospects, Whitley’s minor league career has been interrupted by a 50-game PED suspension in 2018, and by a Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2021 season.

More on other injury situations that arose from today’s games…

  • Carlos Santana left during the sixth inning of the Pirates’ 6-3 loss to the Mariners today due to what the Bucs described as lumbar spine muscular tightness.  It would certainly seem like Santana will miss a couple of games to recovery, and a trip to the injured list is possible if his back problem doesn’t subside.  Connor Joe is the likeliest candidate for first base duty in Santana’s absence, but Pittsburgh might now be facing a depth problem at first base since Ji-Man Choi isn’t eligible to return from the 60-day IL until at least mid-July.
  • Twins reliever Emilio Pagan faced only one batter in today’s 3-0 loss to the Blue Jays before departing due to a left hip flexor strain.  Both Pagan and manager Rocco Baldelli expressed hope that an IL stint wasn’t necessary, with Pagan telling the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Jerry Zgoda and other reporters that “hopefully we caught it early enough, that I’m good to go in a day or two.  I think I’ll be ready to go tomorrow if need be.”
  • Max Muncy left today’s game with a cramp in his left hamstring, and the Dodgers infielder told MLB.com and other media that he has been dealing with cramps throughout the weekend.  Muncy will undergo an MRI to further examine the issue, but for now, he is day to day.  Between a scorching-hot April and then a big slump for much of May, Muncy is still hitting .208/.340/.530 over 203 plate appearances this season, and he belted his 17th home run before his early exit today.
  • X-rays were negative on Owen Miller’s right forearm, after the Brewers infielder was removed as a precautionary measure after being hit by a pitch in today’s game.  Manager Craig Counsell told Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and other reporters that Miller is day to day, and could be back for the team’s next game on Tuesday (Monday is an off-day for the Brew Crew).  Miller’s hot bat has earned him more playing time, and after collecting two more hits today, Miller is slashing .330/.371/.513 over 124 PA.

Astros Acquire Nick Allgeyer From Phillies

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The Astros acquired minor league lefty Nick Allgeyer from the Phillies in exchange for cash considerations this afternoon, as reflected on the MLB.com transaction tracker. He’ll report to Houston’s top affiliate in Sugar Land.

Initially selected by the Blue Jays in the 12th round of the 2018 draft, Allgeyer pitched his way to the upper levels of the Toronto system. He earned a cup of coffee at the big league level in 2021, tossing one inning of scoreless relief. The Jays ran him through outright waivers quickly thereafter, however, and he hasn’t made it back to the majors since that point.

For the past two-plus years, the University of Iowa product has mostly pitched in Triple-A. He’s worked in a swing role, starting 36 of 61 appearances. Over 202 1/3 Triple-A frames, Allgeyer carries a 5.34 ERA with a slightly below-average 20.9% strikeout rate and an elevated 11% walk percentage. Allgeyer started four games with the Phils’ top affiliate after signing a minor league contract over the winter. He’s struck out 15 and walked six in 12 innings of six-run ball while keeping the ball on the ground at a solid 48.3% clip.

Allgeyer adds some upper level rotation help to an organization whose starting pitching depth is being tested. Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. are all on the injured list. Garcia is done for the year after today’s announcement that he’ll undergo Tommy John surgery. That has pushed Brandon Bielak and J.P. France to the MLB rotation, while some of Houston’s other depth starters are battling injuries of their own.

Righty Shawn Dubin was placed on the minor league injured list today. Former top prospect Forrest Whitley is dealing with minor soreness near his throwing shoulder and will take a day or two off throwing, reports Brian McTaggart of MLB.com (Twitter link). Both Dubin and Whitley are on the 40-man roster, though neither has yet pitched in the majors.

The Astros’ Inexperienced Rotation Depth

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An elite rotation has been one of the key features of the Astros’ run of success in recent years. Justin Verlander headlined the staff for the past four-plus seasons while the club saw the likes of Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and José Urquidy step up as player development success stories.

Even after Verlander’s departure, Houston has one of the stronger top-of-the-rotation groups in the sport. Valdez is a borderline Cy Young contender. Javier misses bats at an elite rate and just secured a $64MM contract extension. Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. have each shown #2/3 starter capabilities in recent years. Urquidy isn’t as high-octane but he’s a perfectly solid back-end starter with excellent control. Just behind that group is Hunter Brown, arguably one of the sport’s five best pitching prospects who allowed only two runs in his first 20 2/3 MLB innings late last season.

It’s a group with immense upside, although the injury bug has already hit before Opening Day. McCullers won’t be ready for the start of the season thanks to a muscle strain in his throwing arm and, as of yesterday, had still not been cleared to begin playing catch (relayed by Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Even if there doesn’t prove to be a long-term concern, the Astros will surely be without McCullers for a little while in the early going. That, in itself, might not be a huge issue considering Brown can step into the vacated rotation spot. Yet one more injury could start to test Houston’s depth, forcing them to tap into a group of mostly unproven hurlers from the upper minors. Let’s look through some of the depth options whom manager Dusty Baker could need to rely upon if anyone else from his top five goes down.

J.P. France

Despite turning 28 within a week of Opening Day, France has zero MLB experience. The club thought highly enough of him to add him to the 40-man roster in November to ensure they didn’t lose him in the Rule 5 draft, however. The 6’0″ righty started 15 of 34 outings with Triple-A Sugar Land last season, working to a 3.90 ERA with a strong 28.3% strikeout percentage but a concerning 10.6% walk rate in 110 2/3 innings. Baseball America slotted him as the organization’s #21 prospect this winter, praising his deceptive delivery and a five-pitch mix of mostly average stuff but raising questions about the consistency of his strike-throwing.

Forrest Whitley

Once regarded by many as the sport’s most talented pitching prospect, Whitley has seen his stock plummet since he reached Double-A as a 20-year-old five seasons back. He’s now 25 and still hasn’t gotten to the big leagues, though the Astros have kept him on the 40-man roster over the past two seasons. He underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2021 and lost a good chunk of the last couple years rehabbing. Whitley returned for ten outings in Sugar Land, serving up a 7.09 ERA while walking almost 16% of opposing hitters in 33 innings.

It’s not uncommon for pitchers to struggle with their control in their immediate returns after a Tommy John rehab, but the clock is ticking for Whitley to establish any kind of role on the Houston staff. He currently has one minor league option year remaining. While the Astros could perhaps petition for a fourth option next offseason in light of Whitley’s injury and a 2018 suspension for a violation of the minor league drug of abuse policy, it’s worth wondering whether they’d hold him on the 40-man roster for another winter if he doesn’t at least take a step forward in Triple-A. Baseball America now considers him the #28 prospect in the Houston system.

Shawn Dubin

Added to the 40-man roster over the 2021-22 offseason, Durbin spent all of last year on optional assignment to Sugar Land. He lost some time to a forearm strain and worked in a hybrid role when he took the mound, starting only 12 of 23 outings. Over 58 1/3 frames, he posted a 4.78 ERA with an excellent 32.1% strikeout rate but an untenable 12.9% walk rate. Barring a major step forward with his control, he’d figure to be more of a bullpen option for the big league club. BA slotted him 25th in the organizational prospect list, projecting him as a multi-inning reliever.

Brandon Bielak

Unlike the three pitchers above him on this list, Bielak has some MLB experience. He’s appeared in 45 games over the past three seasons but started just eight, none of which came last year. Soon to be 27, the 6’2″ righty has a 5.15 ERA over 94 1/3 career big league frames. He continued to work mostly as a starter in Triple-A, opening 14 of his 23 appearances last year. In 88 2/3 innings there, he put up a strong 3.15 ERA but with more middling strikeout and walk numbers (22.2% and 11.1%, respectively). Bielak has held a 40-man roster spot since the summer of 2020 and has one option year remaining.

Bryan Garcia

Signed to a minor league contract with a non-roster Spring Training invitation, Garcia had been a reliever for his entire career until the second half of last season. The Tigers stretched him out as a starter in Triple-A in the middle of July. Garcia made 11 starts for their top affiliate in Toledo and took the ball four times at the big league level. While he only allowed eight runs in 20 1/3 MLB innings, he had a pedestrian 17:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Detroit cut him loose at season’s end, sending him to minor league free agency after he went unclaimed on waivers.

Misael Tamarez/Jaime Melendez/Jayden Murray

Each of this group logged some upper minors work last season, mostly in Double-A. They’ve all garnered fairly recent consideration in the back half of the Astros’ top 30 organizational prospects but none is seen as an obvious rotation piece for 2023. Any of the trio could pitch their way into consideration at some point but they all figure to begin the year in the minors, particularly since none has yet claimed a spot on the 40-man roster.

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It isn’t a group of depth starters with much big league experience. While that might not be a pressing concern out of the gate, it’s virtually unheard of for a club to navigate a 162-game schedule reliant upon only five or six starters. Between McCullers’ injury and perhaps a desire to keep an eye on Brown’s workload — he threw 126 1/3 innings last season between Triple-A and the big leagues — it stands to reason the front office could still look into an addition or two.

Players like Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy and Michael Pineda remain unsigned and look like minor league deal candidates at this stage of the offseason. Bringing in someone from that group or scouring the waiver wire for help would make sense for first-year general manager Dana Brown, who has spoken a few times about his desire to stockpile as much rotation depth as possible. The Astros have enough impact talent at the top of the staff they don’t need any splashy acquisitions but there’s plenty of room to augment the group in the upper minors with a veteran.

AL West Notes: Brown, Whitley, Astros, Pache

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It was reported yesterday that the Astros would start the season without Lance McCullers Jr. in the rotation, since he’s out with an injury to his throwing arm. The club will still have a strong front four in Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and José Urquidy, and it was assumed by most observers that Hunter Brown would now step into the fifth slot.

“It’s consensus in the organization that Hunter Brown has a chance to be big-time for us,” general manager Dana Brown told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. “I think he knows it and feels it. When I saw him throw, I was like, ‘This guy has electric stuff.’ The ball is coming out really good. There’s a comfort with Brown that, hey, Brown could take a step and really log some innings this year.”

The general manager didn’t go so far as to crown the young pitcher as winning the job, but it seems like he’s the frontrunner at the moment. That’s fairly logical given the strong season he had last year. He tossed 106 innings in Triple-A, both starting and in multi-inning relief stints, with a 2.55 ERA, 31.5% strikeout rate, 10.6% walk rate and 54.2% ground ball rate. He was also able to make his major league debut, posting a 0.89 ERA in 20 1/3 innings over seven appearances.

Other options on the 40-man include Brandon Bielak, J.P. France and Forrest Whitley. “We’re hoping Whitley takes a jump this year,” Dana Brown said. “It’s time for Whitley.” Whitley, 25, was once one of the most highly-regarded young players in the game, with Baseball America ranking him the #5 prospect in the league in 2019. Unfortunately, he still hasn’t made his major league debut due to various factors, the most prominent being injuries such as 2021 Tommy John surgery. He was able to return to health last year and toss 40 innings in the minors but with a 6.52 ERA in that time. He’ll look to get back on track this season to the form he showed in 2018 when he posted a 3.76 ERA in Double-A at the age of 20. He still has an option remaining and can be kept in the minors until he proves himself ready.

Of course, the Astros could always add a player from outside the organization, but it doesn’t seem like anything is imminent. “I’m not in the panic mode, but I also will keep my eyes open because I’m always looking for depth,” Dana Brown said.

Other notes from the American League West…

  • Sticking with the Astros and their rotation depth, Rome asked manager Dusty Baker about the situation today. “You got to ask the powers that be,” Baker said. “I got the power, but not the authority. That was always a consideration for me … we didn’t have a general manager in place in order to make that move.” That last comment is a reference to the fact that the club surprisingly parted ways with now-former general manager James Click in November and operated with that job vacant until Brown was hired in late January. It’s not true that the empty position prevented the club from making any moves whatsoever, as owner Jim Crane took an active role in baseball operations alongside some assistant general managers. Between Click’s dismissal and Brown’s hiring, the club signed José Abreu, re-signed Rafael Montero and Michael Brantley, in addition to various minor league deals and waiver claims. Still, it’s possible that the front office was a bit short-handed while transitioning to a period without Click and assistant GM Scott Powers. It’s not too late to add pitching depth, as the club could still make a trade or reach out to free agents like Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy or Aníbal Sánchez.
  • The Athletics will have a tough choice to make at the end of spring since outfielder Cristian Pache is out of options and can’t be sent to the minors without first being exposed to waivers. The prospect hype on him was strong enough that he got to #7 on BA’s top 100 in 2021, though his bat hasn’t developed to match his strong defense. Traded to Oakland in the Matt Olson deal about a year ago, he hit a paltry .166/.218/.241 last season. His 35 wRC+ indicates he was 65% below league average, the lowest such mark in the majors last year among those with at least 250 plate appearances. “For Pache, he’s in a difficult situation,” manager Mark Kotsay tells Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. “Not only is he competing for a roster spot here, but he’s going to showcase himself for 29 other teams. So it’s an important spring for Pache, no question, from an individual standpoint, for his career going forward.” The club has collected many outfielders in its recent deals and currently has a mix that includes Seth Brown, Ramón Laureano, Esteury Ruiz, JJ Bleday, Conner Capel, Brent Rooker, Cal Stevenson and others. Many of those players can be optioned to the minors but Kawahara suggests that Pache’s lack of options might not be enough to get him a roster spot.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

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