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J.P. France

Astros Designate Cooper Hummel For Assignment

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The Astros have designated catcher/infielder/outfielder Cooper Hummel for assignment and placed righty J.P. France on the 60-day injured list as he recovers from last summer’s shoulder surgery. That pair of moves opens two additional spots on a 40-man roster that already had two vacancies. The four openings will go to righty Rafael Montero, lefty Steven Okert, second baseman Brendan Rodgers and top prospect Cam Smith, all of whom have been selected to the 40-man roster and are on the Opening Day club.

Houston also placed outfielders Pedro Leon and Taylor Trammell on the 10-day injured list due to a knee strain and calf strain, respectively. Right-handers Shawn Dubin, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Kaleb Ort and Forrest Whitley have all been placed on the 15-day IL.

The Astros had telegraphed all these moves. They’d already announced that Montero, Okert, Smith and Rodgers were making the team. Houston had previously informed Hummel that he would not break camp. Since he’s out of options, that made a DFA or waiver placement inevitable. France, who’ll be out into at least July rehabbing last year’s shoulder procedure, was an obvious 60-day IL candidate to open the final roster spot.

Houston claimed Hummel off waivers from the Giants last spring. They outrighted him off the 40-man roster a couple weeks later but reselected his contract in June when they released José Abreu. He spent most of the season in Triple-A, exhausting his final option season in the process. Hummel went 0-8 with a pair of strikeouts in his big league work. He had a solid year in Triple-A, hitting .277/.419/.454 with a massive 17.9% walk rate through 442 plate appearances.

The Astros will have five days to trade Hummel or place him on waivers. He’s not viewed as a regular behind the plate, but he can catch on occasion while playing first base or the corner outfield. His patient plate approach has translated to a .285/.419/.480 career slash in Triple-A. He owns just a .159/.255/.275 line with a 31.9% strikeout rate over 82 major league games.

Trammell, Whitley, Ort and Dubin are all out of options themselves. Their Spring Training injuries delay the Astros’ need to make a decision on any of them, as they’ll begin the year on the major league IL. Ort has the best chance of holding a roster spot once he returns after pitching to a 2.55 ERA with a 28% strikeout rate last season.

Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Most of the clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, which means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move these days. Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, however. The 60-day injured list goes away five days after the World Series but comes back when pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

Per R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports, most clubs have a report date of February 12th or 13th. The Cubs and Dodgers are a bit earlier than most, on the 9th and 11th, respectively. That’s due to the fact that those clubs are heading to Tokyo, with exhibition games in mid-March, followed by regular season games against each other on March 18th and 19th. All the other teams have Opening Day scheduled for March 27th.

It’s worth pointing out that the 60 days don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later. A team also must have a full 40-man roster in order to move a player to the 60-day IL.

There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, as well as Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, David Robertson, Randal Grichuk, Kenley Jansen, Harrison Bader, Lance Lynn, Jose Quintana and many more. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together in the next week or so. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon.

Angels: Robert Stephenson

Stephenson underwent a hybrid Tommy John surgery with internal brace in late April. Given the 14-plus months required to recovery from such a procedure, he’s not likely to be ready in the early parts of the 2025 season.

Astros: Cristian Javier, J.P. France, Bennett Sousa

Javier underwent Tommy John surgery in June and is targeting a return in the second half of 2025. France is recovering from shoulder surgery and hoping to return in July. Sousa’s timeline is less clear but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in April. Other possibilities include Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr., who are expected to start the season on the IL but returning in April or May still seems possible.

Athletics: Luis Medina, Ken Waldichuk

Medina underwent Tommy John surgery in August and Waldichuk in May. Medina might miss the entire season while Waldichuk is likely to miss a few months at least.

Blue Jays: Angel Bastardo, Alek Manoah

The Jays grabbed Bastardo from the Red Sox in the Rule 5 draft in December, even though he had Tommy John surgery in June. Manoah also had Tommy John around that time and is hoping to be back by August.

Braves: Joe Jiménez

Jimenez had knee surgery in November with a timeline of eight to twelve months, so he might miss the entire season. Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. are also possibilities, though those will be more borderline. Strider had internal brace surgery in April, so returning in May is somewhat possible. Acuña is recovering from a torn ACL last year and it’s possible he’ll miss the first month or so of the season. Given how important both of those players are, Atlanta probably won’t put them on the 60-day IL unless it’s 100% certain that they can’t come back in the first 60 days of the season.

Brewers: Robert Gasser

Gasser had Tommy John surgery in June and will be looking at a late 2025 return even in a best-case scenario.

Diamondbacks: Kyle Nelson

Nelson’s timeline is unclear, but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in May and missed the remainder of the 2024 season.

Dodgers: Gavin Stone, Brusdar Graterol, River Ryan, Kyle Hurt, Emmet Sheehan

Stone underwent shoulder surgery in October that will cause him to miss the entire year. Graterol also underwent shoulder surgery and isn’t expected back until the second half of 2025. Each of Ryan, Hurt and Sheehan required Tommy John surgery in 2024: Ryan in August, Hurt in July and Sheehan in May.

Guardians: Sam Hentges, David Fry, Shane Bieber, Trevor Stephan

Hentges required shoulder surgery in September, with an expected recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months. Fry underwent UCL surgery in November with a more fluid timeline. He won’t be able to throw at all in 2025 but could be cleared for designated hitter action six to eight months from that surgery. Bieber is perhaps a borderline case, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Given his importance, the Guards may not transfer him to the 60-day IL until it’s assured that he won’t be back in the first 60 days of the season. Stephan underwent Tommy John surgery in March and perhaps has a chance to avoid the 60-day IL, depending on his progression.

Mariners: Matt Brash, Jackson Kowar

Brash underwent Tommy John surgery in May. Given the typical 14-month recovery timeline from that procedure, he would be looking at a midsummer return. However, it was reported in November that he’s ahead of schedule and could be back by the end of April. That’s an optimistic timeline but the Mariners will probably hold off moving him to the 60-day IL until the door is closed to an early return. Kowar underwent Tommy John in March, so an early return in 2025 is possible for him, depending on how his recovery is going.

Marlins: Braxton Garrett, Eury Pérez

Garrett just underwent UCL surgery last month and is going to miss the entire 2025 season. Pérez underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year and will miss at least part of the beginning of the 2025 campaign.

Mets: Christian Scott

Scott required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in September and will likely miss the entire 2025 season.

Nationals: Josiah Gray, Mason Thompson

Gray required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in July, meaning he’ll miss most or perhaps all of the 2025 season. Thompson required Tommy John surgery in March, so he has a better chance to make an early-season return if his recovery is going well.

Orioles: Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells

Bradish and Wells each required UCL surgery in June, so they’re both slated to miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

Padres: Joe Musgrove

Musgrove had Tommy John surgery in October and will therefore miss the entire 2025 season. However, the Padres only have 36 guys on their 40-man roster at the moment, so they’ll need to fill those spots before moving Musgrove to the 60-day IL.

Pirates: Dauri Moreta

Moreta required UCL surgery in March, so an early-season return is possible if his rehab is going well, though he could end up on the 60-day if the club goes easy with his ramp-up or he suffers any kind of setback.

Rangers: Josh Sborz

Sborz underwent shoulder surgery in November and is expected to miss the first two to three months of the upcoming season.

Rays: Nate Lavender, Ha-Seong Kim

The Rays took Lavender from the Mets in the Rule 5 draft, even though he had Tommy John in May and will miss the start of the season. Kim’s status is more up in the air after he had shoulder surgery in October. Various reports have suggested he could return anywhere from April to July. The Rays made a sizable investment in Kim, their largest ever for a position player, so they probably won’t shelve him until they get more clarity on his status.

Red Sox: Patrick Sandoval, Garrett Whitlock, Chris Murphy

Sandoval had internal brace surgery in June of last year and should miss the first half of the season. Whitlock had the same surgery in May, so he could have a bit of a better chance to return in the first 60 days of the season. Murphy underwent a fully Tommy John surgery in April and will certainly miss the beginning of the upcoming season. Another possibility is Lucas Giolito, who had internal brace surgery in March, though he expects to be ready by Opening Day.

Reds: Julian Aguiar, Brandon Williamson

Aguiar underwent Tommy John surgery in October and Williamson in September, so both are likely slated to miss the entire 2025 season.

Tigers: Sawyer Gipson-Long

Gipson-Long underwent internal brace surgery in April. On top of that, he underwent left hip labral repair surgery in July, with the club hoping to address both issues at the same time. It seems likely that he’ll miss some of the early 2025 schedule, but his IL placement will depend on how he’s been progressing.

White Sox: Jesse Scholtens

Scholtens underwent Tommy John surgery in early March. Whether he goes on the 60-day IL or not will depend on how he’s progressed since then and when the White Sox expect him back.

Yankees: Jonathan Loáisiga

Loáisiga underwent internal brace surgery in April, so he could potentially be back on the mound early in the 2025 season. It was reported in December that the Yankees are expecting him to be in the bullpen by late April or early May, so he’ll only end up on the 60-day IL if he suffers a bit of a setback.

J.P. France Targeting July Return From Shoulder Surgery

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Astros righty J.P. France underwent surgery to repair a capsule tear in his shoulder last July. There wasn’t much initial specificity about the timeline beyond the fact that it would end his 2024. France tells Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that the procedure came with a 12-14 month recovery window.

He’s now at roughly the halfway point. France tells McTaggart that he hasn’t encountered any setbacks thus far and hopes he’ll be on track for the earlier end of the rehab window. “I feel like the way it’s going right now, hopefully I’m looking more about the 12-month mark, so that will be me [back] in July. Hopefully that’s the case,” France said. “There’s a fine line because it’s a shoulder surgery and you’re not trying to rush it back, either.” He tells McTaggart that he began a throwing program last month and will progress to working from 90 feet this week.

Even the earlier end of France’s timeline means he’s likely to be shelved until around the All-Star Break. He figures to land on the 60-day injured list if the team needs to opens a 40-man roster spot in Spring Training. In an ideal scenario, France could bolster the team’s rotation depth as they’re weighing whether to buy at the trade deadline.

France was a capable back-end starter during his 2023 rookie season. He overcame a middling 17.4% strikeout rate to post a 3.83 earned run average through 136 1/3 innings. Opponents teed off during his five starts early in the ’24 campaign. France posted a 7.46 ERA over 25 1/3 innings before Houston optioned him to Triple-A. Between that and the injury, he has dropped down the rotation depth chart.

Cristian Javier and France are locks to open the season on the IL. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are more borderline candidates to return by Opening Day. The Astros are set to begin the year with a front four of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti. Swingman Hayden Wesneski would probably be the fifth starter if Garcia and McCullers are unavailable. Colton Gordon and Ryan Gusto, neither of whom has pitched in the majors, are also on the 40-man roster.

Astros Claim Ben Gamel

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The Astros have claimed outfielder Ben Gamel off waivers from the Mets, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic on X. Gamel had recently been designated for assignment by the Mets. To open a 40-man roster spot for Gamel, the Astros have recalled right-hander J.P. France and placed him on the major league 60-day injured list. They will need to open an active roster spot for Gamel once he reports to the team.

Gamel, 32, signed a minor league deal with the Mets in the offseason. He had a strong run for Triple-A Syracuse, getting into 45 games and slashing .314/.423/.538 for a wRC+ of 150. At least some of that production was related to a .400 batting average on balls in play that he wasn’t going to maintain, but he did hit seven home runs and was drawing walks at a strong clip of 16.3%.

The Mets called him up near the end of June with fellow outfielder Starling Marte going on the injured list. Gamel didn’t get much playing time but carried himself well whenever the Mets put him in there. In almost two months on the roster, he got into just 18 games and received just 30 plate appearances. But he walked in seven of those, a huge 23.3% rate, and slashed .217/.400/.261 for a wRC+ of 110. When Marte returned from the IL on the weekend, Gamel was nudged off the roster and onto the waiver wire.

Gamel now has nine major league seasons on his track record, a lengthy run of serviceable major league performance. Since his 2016 debut, he has played for the Yankees, Mariners, Brewers, Guardians, Pirates, Padres and now the Mets. In 703 big league games, he has a line of .252/.333/.382 and a 96 wRC+ while playing all three outfield positions and a bit of first base.

The Houston lineup has taken a few hits in the recent weeks and months. Kyle Tucker hasn’t played since the first week of June due to a shin contusion. Alex Bregman hasn’t played in almost a week due to an elbow injury. José Abreu was released earlier this year after a dismal performance. They also traded away some depth in the Yusei Kikuchi trade by sending Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner to the Blue Jays.

That has led to playing time going to guys with fairly uninspiring results. Jake Meyers has strong defensive grades in center but is hitting .228/.293/.387 for a wRC+ of 93. Mauricio Dubón has been bouncing around the diamond but is slashing .252/.284/.362 for a wRC+ of 82. Jon Singleton has taken over Abreu’s job at first base and has been passable but his .234/.316/.362 line leads to a subpar 96 wRC+. In the group of Trey Cabbage, Chas McCormick, Zach Dezenzo, Aledmys Díaz and Pedro León, no one has a wRC+ higher than 65. León was recently optioned and Díaz released. Shay Whitcomb has done well covering third for Bregman but in a small sample of just three games.

Dubón and McCormick have been getting regular playing time in the corners lately but Gamel could perhaps factor in there, as well as in the first base mix with Singleton and Dezenzo. Both Cabbage and Dezenzo have options and were just recalled in the past week, so perhaps one of those two will be optioned whenever Gamel can link up with the club.

As for France, he underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in June, so it’s unsurprising to see him now landing on the 60-day IL. He had been optioned at the end of April and was on the minor league IL. By getting recalled now, he’ll get major league service time and pay for the remainder of the season. He had already crossed the one-year service mark earlier in the season, but will add a few weeks to his tally here at the end of 2024.

Astros’ JP France To Undergo Shoulder Surgery

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Astros right-hander JP France will undergo surgery on his throwing shoulder, according to his agent Nate Heisler of Klutch Sports (X link). Details of the procedure, which will be performed by noted orthopedic surgeon Dr. Keith Meister, aren’t clear. France will miss the rest of the 2024 season.

It doesn’t come as a huge surprise. France last pitched in a Triple-A game on April 30 because of the shoulder injury. He’d ramped up to long toss as he tried to rehab. General manager Dana Brown said over the weekend that France had a setback and no longer had a clear timeline for a return.

This will be a nearly completely lost season for the 29-year-old. France opened the year in Houston’s big league rotation. He was tagged for a 7.46 ERA across 25 1/3 innings spanning five starts. The Astros optioned him to Triple-A Sugar Land in hopes of getting him back on track. France only made it through one outing before the injury.

It’s another hit to an Astro rotation that has been torn apart. Houston lost José Urquidy and Cristian Javier to Tommy John procedures. They’ve been without Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. as they rehab from 2023 surgeries. Justin Verlander has had a pair of injured list stints. He’s on the 15-day IL with neck discomfort. In part because of the injuries, the Astros hurried last year’s third-round pick Jake Bloss to the majors. Bloss left his MLB debut with shoulder soreness and went on the IL himself, though that’s expected to be a fairly brief absence.

France struggled during the first month of the season, but he entered the year as a key depth arm. He’d emerged as a somewhat surprising contributor as a 28-year-old rookie. France logged 136 1/3 frames with a 3.83 earned run average during his debut campaign. While he had a pedestrian 17.4% strikeout rate, he showed good control and did a solid job avoiding hard contact.

Since the injury occurred after he was optioned, France has spent the last couple months on the Triple-A injured list. He’s not entitled to a major league salary or service time while he’s on the minor league IL. The Astros could recall him and place him on the MLB 60-day injured list if they want to open a 40-man roster spot (at which point France would be paid at the major league minimum rate). The Astros would need to reinstate him onto the 40-man over the offseason or put him on waivers.

Astros Notes: France, Bloss, Caratini, Graveman

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Rotation depth has been an issue for the Astros throughout the season, and they’re still getting unwelcome updates on that front. General manager Dana Brown said yesterday in an appearance on SportsTalk 790 AM that righty J.P. France, who’s on the minor league injured list due to a shoulder injury, had a recent setback after building up to long-tossing (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). There’s presently no timetable for France’s return to the mound.

The 29-year-old France was an out-of-the-blue rotation savior in Houston for much of the 2023 season. He started 23 games for the ’Stros, posted a sharp 3.83 ERA, and wound up finishing fourth on the team in innings pitched (136 1/3) as Houston navigated several injuries. France appeared to fade down the stretch, however, yielding five or more runs in three of his final six starts — including a 10-run drubbing at the hands of the Red Sox in late August. He also turned in an ERA north of 7.00 in his first five starts of the current season, bringing his overall ERA in his past 11 big league starts to 7.71.

That rocky stretch notwithstanding, the ongoing injury trouble for France is a notable hit to Houston’s rotation depth. He was quite strong through his first 17 starts last season, and for a club that entered the year with Justin Verlander, Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. all on the injured list, France represented an important fifth or sixth option on the staff. Instead, he’s been limited to just 29 innings between the majors and minors combined, and it’s not clear when or whether he’ll pitch his way back into the team’s plans.

There’s better news on right-hander Jake Bloss, who exited his major league debut this weekend after 3 2/3 innings and was subsequently placed on the injured list with discomfort in his right shoulder. Manager Joe Espada said yesterday in his pregame media session that an MRI revealed only inflammation in the young right-hander’s shoulder (video link via SportsTalk 790). He’ll go “a few” days without throwing, but the absence of any structural damage is a welcome relief for the organization.

The 23-year-old Bloss was Houston’s third-round pick just last summer and raced through the minors — in part because of the team’s litany of rotation injuries but also because of outstanding performance. In a dozen minor league starts between High-A (four starts) and Double-A (eight starts) prior to his promotion, Bloss posted a 1.74 ERA through 62 innings.

Bloss’ placement on the injured list brings Houston back down to four healthy starting pitchers on the 40-man roster, however. He joins Verlander, Garcia, McCullers, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy on the major league injured list (plus France in Triple-A). Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti are locked into spots for the moment, but the Astros will still need to stretch further to bring up another arm or rely on a bullpen game or two while Bloss and Verlander mend. Verlander, Espada noted yesterday, has yet to resume throwing. There’s no firm timetable for when he might begin a throwing program or return to the Houston roster.

Elsewhere on the injury front, it seems backup catcher Victor Caratini will be out at least three to four weeks (per Brown in that same SportsTalk 790 appearance). He hit the injured list with a left hip flexor strain last week, which prompted the Astros to bring up catcher Cesar Salazar from Triple-A Sugar Land. That timeline from Brown could put Caratini roughly in line with the All-Star break, barring any setbacks.

Caratini has quietly been a solid option backing up young Yainer Diaz. His .248/.287/.400 batting line is right in line with the league average after weighting for his home park (by measure of wRC+). That level of production outpaces even most starting catchers around the league, leaving Caratini looking like a nice pickup on the two-year, $12MM contract he signed over the winter.

Lastly, righty Kendall Graveman tells Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle that he’s not giving up hope of a late-season return following his January shoulder surgery. While Graveman acknowledged the possibility is “remote,” he’s midway through a throwing program and could begin throwing off a mound sometime in early August. He’s currently throwing on flat ground from a distance of 90 feet.

Graveman, 33, also offered further specifics on the nature of his surgery. (The team did not provide any details at the time of their announcement.) The right-hander had a pair of anchors installed in his labrum in addition to a cleanup of his rotator cuff. Graveman provides further details and offers plenty of quotes on his outlook and mindset that Astros fans, in particular, will want to check out in full.

In 66 1/3 innings between the White Sox and Astros last season, Graveman pitched to a combined 3.12 ERA with a 23.4% strikeout rate, 12.8% walk rate, 13 holds and eight saves. While Brown suggested at the time of the surgery that Graveman’s likely season-ending injury wouldn’t intensify his team’s bullpen pursuit in free agency, the Astros signed Josh Hader to a five-year contract just three days after announcing that Graveman had undergone his procedure.

J.P. France Facing Notable Absence Due To Shoulder Injury

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Astros right-hander J.P. France is dealing with a shoulder injury and is going to be out “a while,” per reporting from Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Rome adds in a post on X that manager Joe Espada told SportsTalk 790 that France has been shut down with “right shoulder soreness” and will be sent for more testing. The righty dealt with a shoulder issue during Spring Training but got over it in time to make the Opening Day roster, making five starts before being optioned to Triple-A at the end of April.

An injury to a starter on optional assignment wouldn’t always be a big deal, but there are a few reasons why it would be concerning for the Astros right now. The club is out to a rough 12-22 start, making it feel like their season is in peril. Houston has a very strong track record in the recent past and it’s still early here in 2024, but they will need a run of victories at some point to gain ground in the playoff race.

On top of that, the next part of their schedule is going to be tough. Today marks the start of a period where they play 29 games in 30 days, a challenging enough stretch that the club is likely to go with a six-man rotation.

The starting staff has been a juggling act all year. They knew coming into the season that Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia would be missing significant time as each underwent elbow surgery last year. On top of that, each of Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and José Urquidy have spent time on the injured list.

Verlander and Valdez have since returned and are currently active. The other three rotation spots are currently held by Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti. Blanco has pitched very well, even throwing a no-hitter against the Blue Jays last month, but Brown and Arrighetti have faced significant struggles. Brown has an 8.89 earned run average through his seven starts while Arrighetti has a mark of 8.27 through his four outings.

Javier is expected to be activated from the IL at some point in the near future, perhaps as soon as this weekend, to give the club six starters. France could have perhaps been an option to replace Brown or Arrighetti but this injury could force the Astros to stick with those two.

Urquidy is nearing a rehab assignment but would likely need at least a few weeks to build up since he’s missed the entire season so far. Pitchers like Brandon Bielak and Shawn Dubin have some starting experience but are currently in the big league bullpen and not stretched out. Blair Henley is on the 40-man but his one major league start was disastrous, allowing five earned runs while recording just one out, while his Triple-A numbers aren’t great either.

One surprising name that could be entering the mix is A.J. Blubaugh, as Rome reports that the right-hander has “opened eyes” after his recent promotion to Triple-A. A seventh-round pick from the 2022 draft, Blubaugh has recently made five Triple-A starts with a 4.43 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. He’s not currently on the 40-man roster.

How the club decides to tackle their rotation challenges will be an interesting situation to monitor over the next month as they navigate this tricky patch of their schedule. For France personally, it would be quite unfortunate timing for him if the injury turns out to be significant, beyond the obvious frustrations. Since he was optioned to the minors a few weeks ago, he’s not currently accruing major league pay or service time.

France came into 2024 with 149 days of service time, just 23 shy of the 172 required for a full year. He spent 28 days on the active roster to start this season before getting optioned, meaning he barely eclipsed that one-year line. But if he were to languish in the minors while injured for a while, it would hurt his chances of reaching arbitration and free agency in the future. If he is set to miss significant time and the Astros want to use his 40-man roster spot, they could recall him and place him on the major league 60-day injured list, which would start his service clock running again.

Astros Considering Six-Man Rotation

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Facing a daunting stretch of 29 games in 30 days, the Astros have considered moving to a six-man rotation for at least the next month, manager Joe Espada said last night (X link via The Athletic’s Chandler Rome).

Houston has gotten out to its worst start in recent memory, with the woeful performance from the starting rotation among the primary reasons driving their 11-20 record. The ’Stros got Justin Verlander back a couple weeks ago after he missed several weeks building up in the wake of some early-spring shoulder fatigue, but his return dovetailed with a neck injury for righty Cristian Javier. There’s optimism Javier will return soon and push the rotation group to six, as KPRC-2’s Ari Alexander tweets that the right-hander will embark on a minor league rehab assignment this weekend.

Even with an early no-hitter from breakout righty Ronel Blanco, Astros starters rank 27th in MLB with a 4.91 ERA. Houston’s rotation is tied for 22nd with a 21% strikeout rate and has the second-highest walk rate of any team in the game at 11.2%, trailing only the Mets. Those ugly K-BB numbers don’t lead fielding-independent numbers to be any more optimistic; the Astros’ rotation ranks 22nd in FIP (4.22) and 28th in SIERA (4.53).

Verlander’s return helped to shore things up, but the ’Stros have gotten dismal performances from right-handers J.P. France, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and Blair Henley (the latter of whom made just one spot start early in the year).

France’s lack of strikeouts and pedestrian command always made some regression from last year’s 3.83 ERA in 23 starts seem likely, but he’s fallen off more than even skeptics could’ve reasonably expected. He’s been rocked for a 7.46 ERA in 25 1/3 innings thanks to a walk rate that’s spiked from 8.1% to 9.9% and a home-run rate that’s ballooned to 1.76 HR/9. He’s still doing a nice job avoiding hard contact, but when opponents have managed to barrel him up, the results have been disastrous — and the increased walk rate has meant there’s more runners on base for those worst-case outcomes.

Brown looked like a Rookie of the Year candidate for a portion of the 2023 season, but the former top prospect wilted as the year wore on. Like France, his walk and home-run rates have spiked in worrying fashion; he posted an 8.3% walk rate and 1.50 HR/9 last year but is now sitting at 12.2% and 1.96, respectively. He’s not inducing anywhere near as many chases off the plate as he did in ’23, and his swinging-strike rate has dropped from 10.6% to a well below-average 9%. He’s not doing himself many favors early in the count, either. The league-average pitcher has thrown a first-pitch strike at a 62.1% clip in 2024. Brown is at 52.2%.

The 24-year-old Arrighetti made his big league debut this season but hasn’t found much success through his first four starts. He did enjoy the best start of his young career last night, holding the Guardians to a pair of runs in 5 2/3 innings, but that only dropped his ERA to 8.27. Arrighetti has punched out a strong 25.9% of his opponents and has some rotten luck on balls in play (.438 BABIP), but his 12.3% walk rate (plus another plunked batter) has worked against him as well.

Each of Verlander, Blanco, Javier and Framber Valdez has pitched well when healthy this season, but Houston also has Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy on the injured list alongside Javier at the moment. (Valdez also recently missed two weeks due to elbow inflammation.) The team knew McCullers and Garcia would open the season on the shelf after each underwent surgery last summer, but the Astros still didn’t take any real steps to deepen their rotation over the winter.

Assuming Javier is able to return in relatively short order, the presumptive six-man rotation would include Verlander, Valdez, Javier, Brown, Blanco and one of France or Arrighetti. Houston will need some combination of rebounds from Brown and/or France and a big step forward from Arrighetti (or another minor league starter) if they hope to turn their fortunes. If the Astros are indeed able to pull back into the race, they could get some needed reinforcements from Urquidy, McCullers and Garcia when they’re healthy.

That internal cavalry will be pivotal, as Houston’s $241MM payroll is already a franchise record. Owner Jim Crane had only crossed the luxury tax threshold once prior to this season, and the ’Stros now sit less than $2MM shy of the second tier of penalization, per RosterResource. There’s no guarantee Crane will want to pour more money into the team by way of deadline acquisitions — particularly if the Astros are more of a fringe contender than a clear playoff favorite when late July rolls around.

Astros To Activate Framber Valdez On Sunday, Option J.P. France

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Astros manager Joe Espada informed members of the club’s beat, including Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that left-hander Framber Valdez will be activated off the injured list to start Sunday’s game against the Rockies in Mexico City. Rome also reports (X link) that right-hander J.P. France will be optioned in a corresponding move.

The news is obviously great for Valdez personally. He and the club got a scare when he landed on the injured list earlier this month due to soreness in his throwing elbow. It’s always a concerning element when a pitcher’s throwing elbow is injured but a number of high-profile pitchers requiring season-ending surgery this year only heightened the worry.

Thankfully, it seems Valdez avoided a really serious injury. He started throwing again shortly after being placed on the IL and will now be quickly activated, just barely over the 15-day minimum and without requiring a rehab assignment.

The news is also great for the team, as the Astros have been scrambling to fill their rotation all season along. They came into they year knowing they would be without Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia, since they each underwent significant elbow surgeries last year and won’t be available until midseason at the earliest. But the rotation was further thinned out during Spring Training when Justin Verlander and José Urquidy each landed on the injured list.

Valdez then landed on the injured list a few weeks ago, further depleting the rotation mix. Verlander returned to health and rejoined the club about a week ago, but then Cristian Javier swapped places with him, landing on the IL due to neck discomfort. Now that Valdez is back, he’ll slot into the rotation next to Verlander, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti.

France being sent down registers as a surprise. He’s certainly not out to an amazing start to the season, with a 7.46 earned run average through five starts. But he did quite well last year, with a 3.83 ERA in 136 1/3 innings. He may have been challenged to maintain those kinds of results going forward, as his 17.4% strikeout rate was a bit below average last year, but he’s actually increased his strikeout rate to 18.2% this year.

His struggles in the early going could perhaps be a bit based on luck. His .289 batting average on balls in play last year has ticked up to .321 this season, while his strand rate has gone from 76.7% to 62.2%. His 5.52 FIP and 4.95 SIERA both suggest he deserved to have slightly better results than what he actually got.

Beyond looking at France in a vacuum, it’s also surprising to see him as the corresponding move when considering the other options. Both Brown and Arrighetti still have options and each has allowed more earned runs than innings pitched this year. Brown had a 9.68 ERA through five outings while Arrighetti has a 10.97 ERA through three.

A deeper look perhaps sheds some light on the decision, however. Arrighetti has struck out 25.9% of batters faced, far more than France. His 12.1% walk rate is certainly on the high side but he’s also been victimized by a .500 BABIP and 52.8% strand rate. His 3.81 FIP and 4.04 SIERA are actually quite serviceable.

Brown’s rate stats for the year aren’t amazing but his numbers are also heavily skewed by one nightmare outing in which he allowed nine runs on 11 hits against the Royals while only recording two outs. Perhaps the Astros are giving him the benefit of the doubt since he had a 26.8% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 52.4% ground ball rate last year. Perhaps the club will speak on their reasoning in the coming days.

The diminished rotation is a huge reason why the Astros are out to its worst start in years. They are currently 7-19, the worst club in the American League apart from the White Sox. Their starters have a collective 5.21 ERA, which is better than just the White Sox and Rockies out of the 30 MLB clubs. Valdez has a 3.38 ERA in his career and should help stabilize the group as long as he’s pitching like his usual self. If Javier and Urquidy are able to come back soon, that could further strengthen things.

Elsewhere on the roster, the team is allowed a 27th man for the Mexico City Series, though it has to be a position player. Per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, the Astros will have first baseman/outfielder Trey Cabbage as their extra body.

It’s unclear if the Astros intend to have Cabbage around for just the games in Mexico or a longer stay, but it will perhaps be a situation worth monitoring since the club has been getting atrocious production from the first base spot this year. Earlier this week, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at the struggles of José Abreu, who is now hitting .065/.132/.081 on the year. Jon Singleton has started in Abreu’s place a few times lately. His line of .244/.326/.293 is far better than Abreu’s but is still below average, translating to a 88 wRC+.

Cabbage has generally hit a ton in the minors but also had his share of strikeout problems, a trend that has continued this year. Acquired from the Angels in the offseason, Cabbage has struck out in 31.9% of his Triple-A plate appearances this year and also walked in 23.1% of them. He has three home runs and is hitting .271/.440/.486 for a 137 wRC+ while also stealing seven bases. That’s pretty similar production to his time in Triple-A last year, when he hit 30 home runs, stole 32 bases and struck out 30% of the time.

Brown: Astros Not In Market For Additional Starting Pitching

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March 5: Even following today’s announcement that Verlander will open the season on the injured list, Brown doubled down on his comments downplaying a potential rotation addition (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). Brown again stated that his club isn’t in the market for starting pitching at this time, pointing France as the likely fifth starter behind Valdez, Javier, Brown and Urquidy. Blanco and prospect Spencer Arrighetti were also listed by Brown as depth options.

March 3: The Astros made a major splash at the back of their bullpen by signing relief ace Josh Hader to a five-year deal back in January, fortifying a late-inning mix that already included veteran closer Ryan Pressly and flamethrowing youngster Bryan Abreu. In the run-up to Spring Training, however, Houston GM Dana Brown indicated that the club hoped to make further additions to the pitching side of its roster before Opening Day, either by adding a reliever to the club’s bullpen mix or perhaps by adding another starter to allow other potential rotation arms to work in relief. That no longer appears to be the plan, as the GM downplayed the likelihood of such an addition coming to fruition in comments made to reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) yesterday.

“We might add something later (around the trade deadline), but right now I think our team’s built to win and we’re ready to go,” Brown said, as relayed by Rome. Brown then went on to specifically note that he doesn’t expect the club to sign left-hander Blake Snell, the top free agent remaining on the open market, even as he admitted that he “would love to have him” on board.

It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Astros aren’t likely to aggressively pursue a deal with Snell. After all, the club has already entered unprecedented territory this winter when it comes to payroll. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Astros have never entered a season with a projected payroll above their $187MM figure from the 2021 season, but RosterResource projects the club to blow that figure out of the water this year with a whopping $240MM payroll entering the 2024 campaign. Those same projections put Houston at a $254MM payroll for luxury tax purposes, just a hair below the second threshold of $257MM. An addition of Snell’s caliber would surely blow past that number, as would even smaller deals for remaining mid-level free agent arms such as Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger.

While Brown’s comments suggest that the club is comfortable with its internal options in the rotation, Houston’s depth is already being tested with a month left to go before Opening Day. Both veteran ace Justin Verlander and sophomore right-hander J.P. France have been sidelined to this point in the spring by shoulder issues, leaving the status of bother hurlers in question ahead of Opening Day. Should both righties begin the season on the shelf, the club would likely be left to turn to either Ronel Blanco or Brandon Bielak as their fifth starter behind the established quartet of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, and Jose Urquidy. Blanco made seven starts for the Astros last year, pitching to a 4.74 ERA in 38 innings of work, while Bielak posted a 3.69 ERA in 70 2/3 frames over 13 starts.

The recent comments seem to shut the door on the club making any major additions, though it’s at least plausible that the Astros could look to shore up their bullpen depth with a smaller investment. The best remaining relief arm on the free agent market, veteran right-hander Ryne Stanek, spent the last three seasons in Houston and pitched to a strong 2.90 ERA with a 3.91 FIP during his time with the club, though he’s coming off a shaky platform season that saw him post a 4.09 ERA with a career-worst 23.9% strikeout rate. Other veteran options still available include Brad Boxberger and Mark Melancon, each of whom offer late inning experience and could likely be had on non-roster deals after injury-marred 2023 campaigns.

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