Jurickson Profar was one of just three players on our annual Top 50 free-agent list here at MLBTR who hadn’t agreed to terms on a new contract prior to the calendar flipping to 2023. Two months later, Profar is still a free agent and, unsurprisingly, is the final unsigned member of that same top 50 list.
It’s fair to wonder just how aggressive he and agent Scott Boras were early in the winter. Profar began his offseason by declining a $7.5MM player option. While he never seemed likely to sign any kind of mega-deal, even as someone who’s more bearish on the player than many, I anticipated that he’d surpass that level of compensation. We put a relatively modest two-year, $20MM prediction on Profar’s eventual contract, but MLBTR was lower than many on the veteran switch-hitter; the New York Post’s Jon Heyman put down a four-year, $48MM estimate, and The Athletic’s Keith Law pegged him at $15-18MM annually over a term of three to four years. To be clear, the intent in highlighting those predictions is not to criticize them — we’ve had more than our share of misses in this regard — but rather to highlight that there was a wide range of outcomes that onlookers viewed as reasonable with regard to Profar.
Whatever contract Profar and Boras sought clearly hasn’t been there to this point. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic wrote this morning that Profar was at one point seeking a contract that’d pay him $10MM per season. It’s worth emphasizing that Kuty doesn’t specify whether that’s a current asking price or whether it’s on a multi-year pact. Regardless, Profar turned down a $7.5MM deal to remain in San Diego, so it’s not a huge shock to see there’s been a point where his camp was eyeing an eight-figure annual salary.
It’s hard to imagine Profar securing that $10MM AAV at this point, even on a one-year deal. Prices on recent free-agent signings have been more modest than early in the winter. Late signees like Matt Moore ($7.55MM), David Peralta ($6.5MM), Andrew Chafin ($6.25MM), Michael Fulmer ($4MM), Elvis Andrus ($3MM), Brad Hand ($2MM), Robbie Grossman ($2MM) and Will Smith ($1.5MM) have all come in south of that $10MM sum. No free agent has reached a $10MM AAV since Carlos Correa finalized his deal to return to the Twins on Jan. 11.
Perhaps Profar can yet buck that trend. He only just turned 30 and is coming off a decent 2022 season in which he batted .243/.331/.391 with 15 home runs and a career-high 36 doubles. He has above-average bat-to-ball skills, has upped his walk rate over the past couple seasons, and generally graded as an average or slightly worse defender in left field for the Padres.
That last point, in particular, is worth expanding on a bit. Many onlookers have wondered why Profar hasn’t emerged as a more viable option for the many teams in need of infield help. Profar, after all, was the game’s No. 1 overall prospect a decade ago when he was rising through the Rangers’ ranks as a shortstop. However, he’s since had a pair of shoulder surgeries, moved to the other side of the second base bag, and (during his time with the A’s) developed a case of the yips that eventually pushed him to left field.
The A’s traded Profar to San Diego after just one year, and the Padres gave him all of 197 innings at second base from 2020-22 — none of which came this past season. The Friars were shorthanded enough in the infield that they signed Robinson Cano after he was released by the Mets on the heels of a .195/.233/.268 showing. That they were content to give that version of Cano 40 innings at second base but didn’t move Profar into the infield isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of his ability to play the position.
At this point, it’s hard to consider Profar anything other than a left fielder. He’s played 156 innings of center in the big leagues (2020-21 in San Diego) and 208 innings in right field (again, 2020-21 with the Padres), but neither sample drew strong or even average ratings. Profar’s average sprint speed, per Statcast, was in the 32nd percentile of MLB players in 2022. His outfield jumps were in the 37th percentile, and his 87 mph average velocity on his throws from left field ranked 95th among 156 qualified outfielders. With limited speed, below-average jumps and below-average arm strength, center or right could be a stretch for Profar.
Profar is a switch-hitter with slightly better-than-average results at the plate, modest defensive upside in left field and perhaps an emergency infield option. He walks at a high clip and puts the ball in play far more often than the standard big league hitter. The quality of that contact isn’t particularly strong (87.5 mph exit velocity, 34.3% hard-hit rate, 4% barrel rate), but there’s something to be said for just putting the ball in play — particularly as shifts are more limited in 2023 and beyond. A slightly above-average offensive left fielder isn’t a star, but it’s a solid player. Jean Segura has a similar skill set in the infield, and he received $17MM on a two-year deal.
Even that type of deal might be out of reach at this point, but assuming Profar can still land a one- or two-year deal in the near future, he can obviously help a club in search of some corner outfield reinforcements. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look back in early January at which teams made the most sense for Profar based on their lack of left field production in 2022, but it seems like an exercise worth revisiting. The market and many rosters have changed since that time. Profar is now the only viable regular remaining in free agency, and several teams that might’ve made sense as a suitor back on Jan. 2 look less likely to add him now. The Rangers, for instance, have since signed Robbie Grossman. The Marlins moved Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center and acquired Luis Arraez to play second, which means they’ll stick with Jesus Sanchez and Bryan De La Cruz in left.
Let’s take a look at some clubs that still seem like they could use in left field — and perhaps why those teams haven’t yet more earnestly pursued Profar. He’d likely require somewhere that can grant him mostly regular playing time, which makes the incumbent Padres a tough fit once Fernando Tatis Jr. returns and joins Juan Soto and Trent Grisham in the outfield.
Postseason Hopefuls
- Yankees: The Yankees are one of the most oft-cited — if not the most oft-cited — speculative fits for Profar. It’s not hard to see why, considering their left fielders combined for a .224/.312/.391 output last season. Oft-injured Aaron Hicks, still owed three years and $30.5MM on his contract, and young Oswaldo Cabrera are the two favorites. The latter outproduced the former by a wide margin last season, but Hicks’ contract will probably get him another look. The Yankees are loath to step into the fourth and final luxury-tax tier, however, and signing Profar (or just about anyone, really) will put them into that bracket and come with a 90% dollar-for-dollar hit on any contract. There’s also no clear indication that Profar is a huge upgrade over in-house options. His .243/.331/.391 slash line last year isn’t that different from the .224/.312/.391 output for which the Yankees combined. Yes, Profar’s numbers would probably tick up a bit playing his home games at Yankee Stadium instead of Petco Park. But even the Yankees’ tepid left field production last year was good for a 103 wRC+; Profar was at 110 himself.
- Braves: Atlanta’s left fielders hit .238/.285/.431 in 2022, and that includes a combined 175 productive plate appearances from Adam Duvall, Robbie Grossman and William Contreras, none of whom are on the team any longer. Veterans Marcell Ozuna (.226/.274/.413 in 2022) and Eddie Rosario (.212/.259/.328) are the primary options here, with Sam Hilliard, Jordan Luplow, Eli White and non-roster invitees Kevin Pillar and Magneuris Sierra providing depth. There’s clearly room for an upgrade, but the Braves are paying Ozuna and Rosario a combined $27MM in 2023 and probably don’t want to sign a third left fielder to add to that sum. More broadly, the Braves just haven’t spent much of anything in free agency this winter; their lone big roster splash was a trade bringing Sean Murphy in from the A’s. They’re into the first tier of luxury territory, so Profar would cost them 20% penalty on top of his contract.
- Rays: Tampa Bay has been looking for a left-handed bat for much of the winter. Profar would help to balance out the lineup, likely splitting time with Randy Arozarena in left field and at designated hitter. That could cut into Harold Ramirez’s playing time or push him to first base more often, with Yandy Diaz sliding back to third (at the expense of Isaac Paredes). As with most Rays moves, it’d require a whole lot of moving parts and likely push some MLB-worthy bats off the roster and into the upper minors to serve as depth in the event of injuries. Profar’s offensive upside is limited, so the Rays probably feel confident they can match it with in-house options. The likely price tag hurts as well.
- Rangers: The Rangers already signed Grossman, so perhaps they have no interest in adding another outfielder. Grossman’s not a clear everyday option in left field, though, and center fielder Leody Taveras is a little banged up, which could push Adolis Garcia from right to center early in the season. If Texas had a clear option at DH, this wouldn’t work as well, but they don’t. The Rangers could add Profar, go with him/Taveras/Garcia across the outfield when everyone’s at full strength, and use Grossman as a reserve corner outfielder and part-time DH.
Rebuilding Clubs
- Royals: Kansas City doesn’t have a single established outfielder on the roster. They’ll go with a combination of Edward Olivares, Kyle Isbel, Nate Eaton, catcher/outfielder MJ Melendez, corner bat Hunter Dozier and, once healthy, former top prospect Drew Waters. Olivares, Isbel, Eaton, Melendez and Waters all have minor league options remaining. Non-roster vets like Franmil Reyes and Jackie Bradley Jr. could eventually impact this group, too, but there’s room for a solid veteran right now. Then again, the Royals waited until they’d cleared the salaries of Adalberto Mondesi and Michael A. Taylor in respective trades with the Red Sox and Twins before they even brought righty Zack Greinke back on a one-year, $8.5MM contract. They may not want to or have ownership permission to sign another free agent with a notable salary.
- Reds: The Reds will cycle through Wil Myers, TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, Will Benson, Nick Solak, Stuart Fairchild and perhaps non-roster veteran Chad Pinder in the outfield corners this season. Myers will see his share of time at first base, too, as Joey Votto recovers from 2022 shoulder surgery. Friedl and particularly Fraley hit well enough last year that it’s understandable if Cincinnati wants to get them some extra looks, but Fraley has been on the IL five times in the past three seasons, including a 60-day IL stint last year for knee troubles. Center fielder Nick Senzel has also had repeated health troubles. Signing Profar deepens the lineup and adds a potential deadline chip for a rebuilding Cincinnati club, but the Reds have spent under $14MM in free agency and probably view Myers as the lone corner-outfield addition they’d prefer to make.
- Tigers: The Detroit outfield is composed largely of rebound candidates, where each of Akil Baddoo, Austin Meadows and top prospect Riley Greene will look for better results in 2023 than they had in 2022. Twenty-five-year-old Kerry Carpenter will also get his share of opportunity after a blasting 36 homers between the upper-minors and MLB. Reserve option Matt Vierling can and will at times handle all three outfield spots. From a depth standpoint, prospects Parker Meadows (Austin’s younger brother) and Justyn-Henry Malloy could both reach the big leagues in 2023, but Meadows hasn’t played above Double-A and Malloy has only eight games there.
Realistically, you could squint and shoehorn Profar onto a number of teams. He’s not going to be so highly compensated that he couldn’t be pushed to a bench role eventually or even traded, and enough teams have at least one shaky option in the outfield corners that you could justify signing him as an upgrade. At this point, it could take a spring injury to really motivate a team to sign him at a decent salary, though.
The other element at play here is the looming World Baseball Classic. Profar, a native of Curacao, is suiting up for the Netherlands and could look to use the tournament to showcase himself for MLB clubs. The WBC will give him some reps to help get ready for the season, and it’s possible that a big league team will suffer an outfield injury while the tournament is ongoing. If that happens, Profar could pitch himself as a game-ready replacement who could join up with a new team and be ready to step right onto the Opening Day roster.
Sign him AA!!!!!
Padres lucked out. Lucky team with the worst “fans” aka people who have been watching baseball for one year
Padres fans are long time fans. Like me, since the early 80s
Me too. Early 80s when I’d wait and wait for them to be on WGN or WTBS.
How many commenters here saw Mickey Lolich tossing knuckleballs over two MLB seasons while wrapped in an XXL mustard brown Padres jersey?
More than a few, likely.
That slap at Padres fans is clueless and total nonsense. They are loyal and always have been. They have weathered a legit franchise move that somehow didn’t go through at the last, insanely cheap owners, talentless rosters, and Roseanne.
The team today is quite profitable. The wide perception is they are losing crazy money, but that is false.
The fans have always been supportive, and now, like Peter Seidler, they are putting their money along with their hearts on the line. It’s fun to see that, and overall they are good for the game. Maybe ask any Marlins or Tigers fan what they think about the fans/ownership combo out there.
Let’s celebrate when he signs for 2-3 million less than what he was locked in at with the Padres
He fits a lot of teams at $2-3MM, on a one year.
First game 1972. Lots of Friar Fans have Suffered Long Enough. IT IS NOW TIME.
@oldtimer78- Just got a “Nate the Great” jersey to honor the current SDP club home run king’s passing. 1972 was quite a year for him. Some say he would have hit 50 in a less cavernous home park.
The Padres first game was in 1969 at home against the Houston Astros. The Astros weren’t very good in those days, and the Padres actually won that first game 3-1.
Been watching the friars almost religiously since birth. Before this ownership it didn’t feel very lucky to me.
Only a really crappy fan would say that. Its called projection. Maybe a little insecurity and narcissism to boot. Let me guess: Dodgers are your thing? That’s like rooting for Russia as they invade Ukraine.
I’ve been a padres fan for 35 years. Watched a lot of horrible baseball over the years.
Doyer fans are floating water trash
So what’s the threshold for being a “real” fan? Is there a formal process where people have to take a test to ensure they’ve maintained status as a “real” fan? Or do ride-or-die fans simply like to feel superior to anyone who loses interest when their team is feckless?
You can be a “real” fan in your first year of enjoying baseball or if your interest fluctuates year-to-year, just like you can be a crotchety gatekeeper no matter how long you’ve been a fan.
Gatekeeping fandom is silly and childish.
As a diehard Padres fan, I’ll watch even if they lose 100+ game for years on end.
But I’m realistic, and a business owner.
When I put myself in the shoes of a potential customer of any business that is not sports, I have to ask if I’d continue to support a business that never tries to better their product, Never cares what their customers have to say, and just expects customers to continue supporting said business. If this were a restaurant, they would never make it.
I can not judge any fan of any organization for not supporting billionaires who do not put any extra effort in to collect more of their money. It’s ridiculous. Stop drinking the kool-aid. You’re no better “fan” than someone else.
Lol Hackman had 48MM
I can’t believe Keith Law had Profar for 15-18mill per season, what on earth was he smoking cuz I want some of that stash.
Yeah, it’s insane but it’s also a game of musical chairs. When you have someone like Boras at your side and you overprice yourself, you are going to have a lot of trouble catching the open chairs. Boras may fight for his clients, but he also screws a lot of them.
pheno: I agree completely. If youre a mega-star you sign with Boras, if youre a middle of the road player, STAY AWAY. He uses them like pawns in a chess game.
This really isn’t all that shocking. Segura offers a similar offensive profile (5-10% better than league average) but plays on the infield and is not just a body to stick out there. He is a solid contributor with the glove. Outside of 2020, he has not been below 1.7 fWAR.
Profar has a grand total of 2 years in his career where he has topped Segura’s worst seasons. We’re talking 836 games to get to 6 fWAR. He’s a limited corner outfielder that doesn’t bring any value with the glove.
Frankly, paying him anything close to Segura seems like an overpay. His option was valued correctly. Only reason to pay him more is if you ignore the entirety of his career pre-2022 and assume that 2022 is now his true talent level.
His best bet would be to sign a one year deal between $5-8M and prove people like me wrong. If he throws up another 2.5 fWAR season he would certainly be in line for something like 2/$20M – 3/$36M.
He doesn’t play well in years ending in 23.
The Cubs would be a fit, but they don’t want to go over the luxury tax threshold. In wake of Brendan Rodgers’s injury, I’d like to see the Cubs trade David Bote to Colorado to clear a little bit of $, and then sign Profar for RF until Suzuki is back. Once Suzuki is back, Profar could serve as corner outfield depth.
The Cubs need Profar like I need a bleeding Rhoid. Suzuki-Morel-Wisdom-Mancini can all play out there not to mention Davis and Velasquez. I think a re-evaluation is in order here. I pass. There’s always Korea.
Except the where:
– Suzuki is likely out until May or later
– Wisdom is terrible. His strikeout rate is among the worst ever.
– Morel – same issue as Wisdom. He’s a poor man’s Javy Baez. Super athletic, but has A LOT of developing to do. Would be better at AAA.
– Mancini’s defensive metrics in the outfield are atrocious.
Profar can put up numbers similar to Happ for a cheaper price, and Happ could then fetch the Cubs decent prospect at the deadline. Their career #s are very similar.
I still pass. Again. If they wanted him, he’d be here. They think they’re fine and I do too. Who said Suzuki is out til May? Haven’t heard any of that.
Moderate oblique strain is 6-8 week recovery time, plus he’s missing all of Spring Training so will likely need time to ramp up. He hurt it last week – 6 weeks puts him mid-April, 8 weeks puts him at May 1. I’d be surprised if he makes his season debut before May 15th.
Even if that’s right he’s already been down 3 weeks and there is another 24 days until 4/1 So that puts it a 7 weeks there. He came to Camp Feb 7th a week early and immediately got hurt so I think he’ll be fine in April somewhere. Only need a short term answer.
@unclepedomike, you’re so brilliant! Please regale the rest of us with your baseball knowledge. Also, I don’t recognize your name, what did you change it from previously? What are you hiding??
One year, between $2-3Million, a non-contending team hoping at worst he’ll be adequate and at best, they can buy a prospect or two at the trading deadline. It’s not an irrational signing, and not an irrational hope. But he’s not a championship-caliber player, just someone to fill a gap. We don’t know what Boras’ ask was for, but looking at the predictions, it’s pretty obvious that most folks thought he’d have significant value.
Brewers should sign him but they don’t spend money
There’s no spot for him with Yelich in LF. They have plenty of backup outfielders.
Well, Profar could DH, but I think they want Winker to be the primary DH. Yeah, the Brewers aren’t a very good fit despite their outfield question marks.
1. If Profar told his agent, “I am willing to sign a one year contract for $X, make it happen.” How high can X be and he can get a contract in the next few days or so? $5mm? $4mm?
2. I am a Padres fan. It is good for the team that Profar declined his option as it is hard to see where he would play now. I guess SD just would not have signed Matt Carpenter.
3. His former teammate, Wil Myers, signed a one year, $7.5mm deal with Cincinnati on December 22. I wonder if Myers was thinking, “Better sign quickly before Profar does.” Last year, Hogwatch, a SD youtuber thought that Myers would retire after 2022 as nobody would want him. He changed his stance as Myers became productive. Players are motivated to reach the full ten years in MLB to get the pension and for pride. Myers will reach that in June or so. Profar needs a bit more than a season. They are probably both very motivated to reach that, but a year ago, both would have seen that as a foregone conclusion. Profar can probably still easily reach it, he just needs to lower his salary expectations.
x= $7.5 million.
A contract within a few days? X=2m with incentives.
@truthlemonade
His current market value is $14.5M.
spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/jurickson-profar-…
So, if teams aren’t willing to spend that much on the guy, he’s either going to have to lower that asking price or sit out.
Spotrac doesn’t have to come up with the money or adhere to a budget. Profar got half his career WAR in this one season where there was a decent chance he’d be back on the market. Smart FO’s are going to examine his track record/not a career year for valuation.
Elvis Andrus (granted 34yo) ran into the same thing with Boras. Suddenly having an above average OPS+ in a contract year after several years of being bad at the plate while making 15mil/yr will make any FO exec question motivation for offering more than 1yr deal (perhaps w/incentives attached).
So you are saying the Angels’ and Astros’ FO aren’t smart because they signed Brandon Drury and Rafael Montero?
No. Drury signed 2/17mil, which is a pretty tame contract length and amount, compared to my reply about Profar 14.5 figure for 1yr. Montero could be a stretch for 3yrs/34mil 32-34 age…but Houston has seen him be good for them since acquiring late ’21 besides past season. They fixed whatever made them want to acquire him in the first place. Few orgz’s are as good as them with pitchers.
Life long Padre fan here. Without looking at the stats, I would have preferred keeping Wil over Jurickson. With that said, Wil had a difficult time staying off injured reserve.
The best fit may be somewhere in Japan or South Korea.
Or on Mars
Or little league baseball
If he were such a great fit for all those teams he would have signed already!
Overplayed his hand. This isn’t the first time Boras screwed one of his clients.
Moose, Conforto
Nah, Conforto was damaged goods. And teams were wise not to offer him a contract.
As was Moose. Agents advise, not make decisions. Anyone that knows Profar will tell you that he won’t take advice. He believes he knows it all.
Conforto had a QO and turned it down. Same with moose. Screwed big time.
Moose’s challenge was MLB’s banning the shift. You actually now have to be athletic again to play 2B. I actually like Moose, but “athletic” and “light on his feet” are not traits I would bestow upon him.
Swisher, Bourn, Lohse, and some others I am forgetting too
JBJ
It looks like he should have taken that player option. Boras is a great talker. He’s not great enough to get a very average player above average pay. Profar has alternated between good and bad years since 2018. The schedule says 2023 will be a bad year.
No reason for him to sign anything more than 1 year deal. Prob get 10-12 mil prorated once a star goes down or maybe a team starts hot
This year’s Boras Blunder.
Yup, JBradley, Conforto, etc
He’s not that much better than a prospect you’d have on your team or someone like Ben Gamel who got a minor league deal. I don’t understand how a toolsy, top prospect, loses all his athleticism and becomes a corner OF before age 30.
injuries
Work ethic. Or lack thereof.
He will sign for less than he opted out of.
Why wouldn’t the Dodgers pick him up with the Lux injury?
Tell me you didn’t read the article (or have no clue what position Profar plays) without telling me you didn’t read the article.
Bear with me, now, but it’s almost as if by picking up Profar for ANOTHER position, a position other than SS, that the Dodgers might figure they can then slot the player therewith freed up, to play SS!
I know. Amazing, right?
@JackStrawb how does that even work for LAD though? Only way is if you assume Taylor as the everyday CF and then move Taylor to full time SS and stick Profar in CF? That’s not really ideal, I don’t know if that even makes you any better off.
Fangraphs roster resource has their projected OF as Peralta in LF, Thompson in CF, and Betts in RF. The only guy you can play in the IF out of that group is Betts at 2B. So if you stick Profar in that OF, and move Mookie to 2B, that just displaces Vargas at 2B. You could also just insert Profar at 2B, but again that’s just moving Vargas off the keystone.
I don’t think that works with their roster construction.
He had played second base, but he is awful at defense. His scouting grade was a 70 out of 80 at defense, which is elite, but his actual performance is unbearable. He had a low fielding percentage at 2nd, and his fielding at shortstop was extremely bad, along with his range. He was -16 and -18 runs in 2018 and 2019 as an infielder. Sure, he “can” play second, but so could Brad Miller or Prince Fielder (in theory).
Teams trot out sub-par IFers all the time.
Kiki Hernandez owns -12 OAA in roughly 2500 career innings in the infield. That’s a little over a year and a half worth of work, excluding postseason or extra inning games.
You want to tighten that up some, he’s-3 OAA and -2 RAA in 618 SS innings. You want to extrapolate that over a full season worth of ‘chances’ he’d wind up -7 OAA and -5 RAA. Yet he got handed the keys to SS in BOS after the Bogey debacle.
Point is, teams trot out sub-par players all the time hoping to get something different in results (albeit, usually with disastrous results.)
If you put some kind of incentives there to motivate a guy rather than just flashing guaranteed money sometimes you get a surprise, especially when you don’t have a more viable option.
@Kapler
I mean Profar isn’t going to play anymore SS but the dodgers aren’t a crazy fit. They have multiple versatile pieces and target guys who can do that. Rojas/Taylor could pick up SS reps while Profar moves over the diamond
The article talks about Profar having the yips but he also played in 27 games at 2B the last 2 years for the Pads since then.
I’m not sure he’s not an option for partial 2B work. I would’ve opted out of the deal if I were him as well. His ask must’ve been crazy high from the jump.
The problem is there are no fits for Profar at this very moment. We are almost halfway through spring training and the longer we go the less likely Profar will be ready for opening day if he were to sign. Realistically its looking more and more that Profar is going to have to settle for a minor league contract after the season starts
Minor league deal?
He’ll get a guarantee. Probably with a provision to get some minor league work in to ramp up but he’s still a piece for someone.
Every year there’s a guy who loses out by waiting. Profar is this one this yr.
Yeah and more often than not it has been a Boras client. I don’t think he’ll take a minor league deal. He’ll use the WBC as his showcase.
The Dodgers can surely use Profar after Lux’s injury and would jump if not for LT issues.
Iglesias is a much better fit for the Dodgers, and would be cheaper, and therefore, signable.
Profar can’t play 2B or SS so he really doesn’t fit the Dodgers
Profar should stay game ready since he’s doing the WBC bit, for whatever that’s worth. Playing for Curacao he will probably be eliminated in the first round though. I don’t see them as a WBC juggernaut, for some reason.
He plays for the Netherlands. They are ranked 7th in the world.
Well okay, thank you for at least not saying “screen name checks out.” Maybe there is still hope for online discourse after all. (But it would be interesting to know if most of the players are coming from the Netherlands proper, or their colonial holdings like Curacao and perhaps others.) I do not know too many Sven’s who play baseball.
Will Smith should have slapped some sense into this guy’s head.
I think the Giants (starting Lamonte Wade at first, all RH bench) and White Sox (starting Gavin Sheets in right) both make some sense, as teams that are sort of caught in the between the contenders and cellar dwellers and projecting to start something of a question mark. San Francisco in particular is running out an entirely right handed bench per roster resource. Note that on either team, other pieces would have to be moving around; a little like the commentary for the Rays in the article.
Gavin sheets is a bad RF but Benintendi nor Profar is a RF either.
They need a real RF
You’re right – I was thinking Profar LF, Beni CF, Robert RF. But as is the case with a lot of these potential suitors, it’s more like adding a solid guy to an uncertain mix than actually slam dunk improving the team. Most teams want that but they are not trying to pay ten million bucks for it. Beni was fringe in center already when he was a few years younger.
Robert is the CF and Beni LF as long as they are healthy. Oscar Colas they are hoping to promote for RF if the rest of ST goes well……otherwise he’ll be called up eventually. Due to a lot of underperforming pricey contracts, WSox would roll with Sheets/Leury Garcia rather than pay several mil to a FA veteran (unless price was really low like 3mil that many would bite on).
Bizarre, that the Mets spent 1/6m on Tommy Pham who may not even finish the year in MLB, while letting Profar get away.
What are the Mets going to do when one of the elderly Canha, Nimmo, and Marte are out for a month or more? What are they going to do over the minimum of 20 games and perhaps 50 when TWO of those players are out?
Enjoy your lineups of McNeil-Ramirez-Canha, Baty-Lindor-Escobar-Alonso, Narvaez. Vogelberg / Ruf.
The Canha/Nimmo/Marte stalwart triumvirate indeed looks increasingly geriatric and far from a stable, dependable outfield core unless the health gods grant them blanket immunity which I wouldn’t bet on. I have been thinking this for awhile, will the Mets even make it to 90 wins? I’m taking the Under. (And Cohen can most afford the middling Profar.)
@Ignorant Son-of-a-b Wow! Taking the under on Mets +/- 90 will generate a ton of action. If you lived down the street I’d take a friendly 100 bucks of that (taking the over, that is) if only because if the Mets are stumbling by the deadline they have enough surplus talent between Vientos, Baty, Mauricio et al to deal for a difference-maker, and while those three and Peterson, Megill, and Lucchesi don’t impress me they do put a useful floor under hitting and pitching. (I’m a lot less sanguine about this bullpen’s floor.)
—Still, I don’t think the Mets upside is what a lot of people appear to believe it is, and I have yet to see discussed anywhere that despite the late collapse the team got superb years from McNeil, Nimmo, Lindor, Alonso, Scherzer, and Diaz, and strong years in the context of expectations from Canha, Carrasco, Bassit, and Marte, while Guillorme, Escobar, Walker, Peterson, and DeGrom were competent or useful, given projections. An old team had very good health, no one collapsed or even played poorly (for all the talk of a bad season even Escobar managed 2.3 fWAR) and now the key players are a year older.
In short, you surely have a case. If you end up the least surprised person on Earth that the Mets win only 88, I won’t be too far behind in my lack of shock. These Mets look a little too much like some of the ancient Steinbrenner Yankee teams that couldn’t really get it together from 1982-1994.
Ignorant SOB – which sportsbook is offering mets over under at 90? The ones I looked at were at 93/94 and offering -110. Guessing under 90 would be in the +120 range and I’m all in. Or are you just saying you would take the under…sorry sometimes the gambling thing gets me all over enthusiastic lol.
Haha I get what you guys are saying. I haven’t actually seen the O/U with any posted odds yet around me for the Mets …we just recently got sports betting installed here in WA State in our Indian casinos, where one is about 10 mins away from me…so I am already foreseeing a potential problem area evolving for the family budget situation…so I had to tell the wife “sorry hon, but things will be a bit tight for the foreseeable future, time to cut back on your salon and spa appts. and eating out for awhile okay dear?? Thanks for being a team player honey!!!” Needless to say that went over like a lead balloon.
Oh yeah you guys but for some reason I totally did not take into consideration Deadline deals/adding talent…just looking at the roster as it stands today. My bad. I would prolly inch that up then possibly to 90 wins , but ultimately don’t think anything will tip the scales unless it’s Reynolds and one of Milwaukee’s starters or something.
Steve Cohen is going to be scratching his head again and wondering out loud why baseball players cannot be more consistent and in line with past performance. I hope he still does not see building a baseball roster as the equivalent of building a strong Venture Capital portfolio. Or more rude awakenings & confused looks at his TPS Reports & Spreadsheets and yelling at Eppler will abound.
Are you sure about that defensive outlook? Fangraphs’s recent article claims he plays rather poor defense, even in LF.
@Lanidrac Sorry, I think I missed that—did you mean McNeil in LF? If Profar and you’re thinking of Kyle Kishimoto’s 3/3/23 fangraphs article, I take your point, but the Mets would be signing Profar as a fourth OFer, which I think he’d be suitable for, especially compared to Pham, who seems done both in the field and at the plate. If this were for a starting LFer, though, I’d agree Profar is not ideal and not someone a rich contender like the Mets should be targeting.
Profar’s also 5 years younger than Pham, making a collapse year less likely. YMMV, of course, but as a playable 4th OFer that won’t force the Mets to bring up 20 yo Alex Ramirez, or pretend Baty can handle 3B, or condemn them to live with Escobar’s defense at 2B or try once again, unsuccessfully, to make Guillorme into an everyday player for a month, I primarily think Profar almost has to be better than Tommy Pham, and at a very similar price no less. Cheers,
“Almost has to be better than Tommy Pham” will now become Boras’ new sales pitch for Profar!
Ramirez is not coming up under any circumstances.
Mauricio may be playing himself into consideration this Spring.
Well, the article above claims that Profar “generally graded as an average or slightly worse defender in left field,” but that contradicts what Fangraphs says about his defense.
Profar is going to be KC bound.
Is that the word? I can see it. They can definitely use him what w/ the hole in RF last year and Benintendi departing. I don’t like Profar as a starter but the Royals need even marginal talent on their 26-man.
“It’s fair to wonder just how aggressive he and agent Scott Boras were early in the winter.”
And here is the answer, directly from Boras’ mouth piece, “New York Post’s Jon Heyman put down a four-year, $48MM estimate.”
1yr deals to keep okay veterans like this motivated are best for most clubs as a line to draw. It is easy to try someone internal for way cheaper than throw out close to 8 figure AAV 2-3yr contracts like it’s monopoly money. Allocate cash later for better impact players/pitchers.
Why this guy thought he was getting 10 mil with his lack of contact and lack of good defense is beyond me.
Either he has a high opinion of himself, is delusional, or someone filled his mind with bovine excrement.
I think the latter is a talent of Scott Boras.
He also had a lot of info from the Boras Corp about how much money was flying around this offseason, how big contracts were getting and players exceeding estimates.
Could be they thought some would trickle down.
Hopefully @JoeBrady sees this part – for those interested in Bally Sports this was an interesting article that I, and I presume most others including at a team level glossed over:
spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/l…
Basically, agreements like this are a bellwether of companies unable to pay their bills and should’ve sent alarm bells ringing around the league a year ago given the background of the rsn rights buyout.
Has some good info on interest rates they were paying.
Anyways, where am I going with that part of the conversation? When your revenue is projected to take a hit (17 clubs in the bucket now that 3 discovery ones are on notice) you DONT lock money into a player like profar.
You add it to your warchest to afford future years of austerity.
I would rather have a platoon of Cabrera/Hicks/Etc. than sign Profar.
The Padres, who have never lately been accused of pinching pennies, decided he’s not worthy of a $7.5 mil salary. But since he’s got Boros, his value doubles?? I don’t THINK so. He should grab anything close to $5mil….although Boros’ feelings would be hurt.
Boras is a great agent for the top players. For the lesser players he’s a hindrance.
Actually, I don’t believe it was the Padres choice. He decided not to exercise the option so he’s left with the consequences.
“ It’s not hard to see why, considering their left fielders combined for a .224/.312/.391 output last season.” And yet profar is basically a lock to hit .224
Might not be such a bad idea to bring him him. Injuries mount up especially for teams like the Yankees
If he had more pronounced splits like Grossman, there’d probably be a clearer role in a platoon. But without any defensive utility, it’s hard to see how he fits many rosters.
The Blue Jays have Springer, Kiermaier, Varsho, Merrifield. 3 of them are in their age 33 season or later, 3 of them are coming off below average offensive seasons, 2 of them had offseason surgery, 2 of them can’t hit left handed pitching. There’s a case to be made that Profar could have at least a platoon role with them with a good chance that injuries or underperformance would open up a more regular role and yet even if Merrifield is completely washed, you probably feel better about carrying multi position utility players like Otto Lopez who might hit close to as much as Profar but have more versatility.
Funny how, just like the liberal media and their agenda, when Boras screws up, it doesn’t make the news. The phone is ringing, it’s Stephen Drew…
I don’t understand the need to throw politics into this. There are plenty of us who are not shy about calling Scott Boras out.
This isn’t a politics forum but if you wanna bring up liberal media blah blah blah please state specific examples so they can be refuted point by point.
This has Dodgers written all over them. A FA they won’t have to give a long term deal to. Who they can spend pennies on the dollar for. No I’m not calling the Dodgers cheap. This seems right up their alley though.
I didn’t see the fit on the Yankees because he likely could be no better, or maybe even worse, than a Hicks/Cabrera platoon. He had more value when he was a legitimate infield/outfield option. Now he’s an average bat and fielder at a corner OF position. There’s a market for him, but it’s limited at the moment. He can either wait for an injury, or take a lower base, incentive-laden deal that could still allow him to exceed the $6.5MM he walked away from.
Boras’ mouthpiece Heyman would suggest a 4- $48mil. No way. Profar isn’t worth a long term risk and by long term I mean anything over 2 years. I wouldn’t trust him with two myself, the guy is inconsistent and huge slump prone.
Tigers could use him at 1B. Tork needs to be in AAA.
Come on, Blue Jays. No way Kiermaier and Springer stay healthy all year.
I was gonna say the BJ’s could use another OF
I see bright things ahead for this kid in his next career endeavors- Profar will Go Far
I thought he would have gotten something by now but most teams have players stashed in the minors that are similar talent level and don’t require a 40 man spot. I’m sure Boras and a spring injury will get him something but not the starter money it sounds like he was after.
I am still trying to figure out in whose advice did he turn down the qualifying offer.
Not going to happen but just fun theory crafting
Pirates 2y/16m with two options at 2m buyout each.guaranteed 10m AAV. I seriously doubt he’d get much more. Over all hes pretty much an average player more or less over the years.
Outside of Reynolds the pirates OF looks iffy, Profar is decent in left and has played every other position other than catcher.
having an of Of Reynolds, Profar and Bae/Cutch/Suwinski in 2023 might be pretty good
with Bae able to move around the field as well and if we think Suwinski is going to take off then why bother.
I don’t know.. just throwing stuff out there
Rays 1/3 or Japan.
Oh god, what a mess Steve creates of the English language once again due to his ineptitude with commas.
“Two months later, Profar is still a free agent and, unsurprisingly, is the final unsigned member of that same top 50 list.”
Wrong. Stop using commas when you can actually write a flowing sentence. “”Two months later, Profar is still a free agent and is unsurprisingly the final unsigned member of that same top 50 list.”
“Profar, after all, was the game’s No. 1 overall prospect a decade ago when he was rising through the Rangers’ ranks as a shortstop.”
Stop interrupting yourself. “”After all, Profar was the game’s No. 1 overall prospect a decade ago when he was rising through the Rangers’ ranks as a shortstop.”
This isn’t that hard.
“…corner bat Hunter Dozier and, once healthy, former top prospect Drew Waters.”
You’re using commas when you need em dashes. As in “…corner bat Hunter Dozier and—once healthy—former top prospect Drew Waters.” Or you can do “…corner bat Hunter Dozier, and former top prospect Drew Waters, once he’s healthy.” Just not this ridiculous preponderance of commas you insist on.
“Non-roster vets like Franmil Reyes and Jackie Bradley Jr. could eventually impact this group, too, but there’s room for a solid veteran right now.”
“Myers will see his share of time at first base, too, as Joey Votto recovers from 2022 shoulder surgery.”
NEVER USE COMMAS AFTER TOO. STOP IT.
Please hire some more people who actually know how to write properly, MLBTR. Or hire a damn editor.
Paid advertisement by Scott Boras