The Marlins held onto a 4-1 win over the Mariners in dramatic fashion yesterday, pushing them to 38-31. They’re in possession of the National League’s second Wild Card spot. They’re 4 1/2 back of the Braves in the NL East but multiple games clear of the Phillies and Mets for second place in the division.
It’s a start that’ll surprise some onlookers. The Marlins are no longer rebuilding and fully intended to be competitive, but they were generally perceived as the fourth-best team in a strong division. While unimpressive starts from Philadelphia and New York have certainly helped, Miami is seven games above .500 and trending towards deadline season as a buyer.
The Marlins are already looking into ways to upgrade behind the plate. That’s understandable; neither Nick Fortes nor Jacob Stallings has done enough to deter the front office from exploring upgrades. There haven’t yet been any reports about Miami gauging the infield market, though that also figures to be a priority for GM Kim Ng and her front office.
Miami aggressively reshaped their infield over the offseason. The Fish went into the winter looking to add high-contact hitters to the lineup. They actualized that in the infield, swapping Pablo López (and a couple prospects) to the Twins for Luis Arraez while adding Jean Segura and Yuli Gurriel via free agency.
Arraez’s acquisition and return to second base pushed Jazz Chisholm to center field. Segura was signed to play third base. Brian Anderson had already been non-tendered, so Segura displaced utility types Joey Wendle and Jon Berti at the hot corner. At the end of the winter, Miami traded clubhouse leader Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers for upper minors infielder Jacob Amaya and named Wendle their new starting shortstop. First baseman Garrett Cooper was the only Miami infielder to start at the same position on Opening Day for the second straight season.
Any time a team makes that many moves, there are going to be mixed results. The contrast in the Marlins’ infield is particularly stark, though. Arraez has been everything the Fish could’ve hoped for. He’s well on his way to another batting title, with a .378/.431/.461 line that more than compensates for concerns about his defensive chops at second base. The rest of the group has not performed up to expectations. There’s no greater question mark than Segura, who has been the worst everyday player in the majors.
The veteran infielder owns a .190/.259/.234 slash over his first 225 plate appearances in South Florida. While Segura has never been a prototypical power threat, he’s reached double digit homers in each of the last six full seasons. This year, he’s connected on just one longball. Among hitters with 200+ plate appearances, Segura has easily the lowest slugging percentage. (Alex Call is second from the bottom at .295.) He’s also last in on-base percentage and tops only Nick Maton and Kyle Schwarber in batting average.
That’s disastrous offense, and Miami’s gamble in moving Segura to a position with which he’s not familiar hasn’t panned out on that side of the ball either. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as five runs worse than the average third baseman through just over 500 innings. Statcast isn’t quite so harsh but has him two runs below par.
Combining league-worst hitting and below-average defense has Segura well below replacement level thus far. He’ll almost certainly improve his production. It’s hard to get any worse than his current line, and Segura’s pre-2023 track record was that of a solid regular. A .224 average on balls in play calls for some positive regression, so he should at least start hitting for a better average.
The complete lack of extra-base impact is a serious concern, however. Solid as the season has gone overall, Miami still isn’t an imposing offensive club.
Playing half their games in cavernous loanDepot Park admittedly isn’t doing the lineup any favors. Miami’s offseason focus was about improving the run production, though, trying to add more balance to a club that skewed so heavily to pitching and defense last year. Many of their moves actively weakened the run prevention to increase scoring. They relinquished López to bring in Arraez, moving Segura and Chisholm off their standard second base positions in the process. They parted with Rojas — a light-hitting, plus defensive shortstop — to shoehorn Wendle into the lineup at a position he’d never played regularly.
The offense is better, but not dramatically so. They’re tied for 25h in runs scored, 22nd in home runs, 18th in on-base percentage (.318) and 19th in slugging (.397). The Fish respectively finished in 28th, 24th, 27th and 28th in those categories last season. Arraez has driven the on-base jump, while the power spike is attributable to scorching starts from holdover outfielders Jorge Soler and Jesús Sánchez. Even with Arraez flirting with a .400 clip for a while, Miami’s infield has a bland .269/.326/.361 slash. As measured by wRC+, they’re 23rd in offensive production from their infielders.
Miami has weathered that so far. That’s in large part to a 17-5 record in one-run contests, allowing them to overcome a -30 run differential that’s above only those of the Rockies and Nationals in the Senior Circuit. The Fish aren’t going to apologize for those wins. They’re in the books, and they put the club right in the thick of a muddled NL playoff picture. Yet that kind of success in close games isn’t something Miami can bank on continuing all year. They’ll need the lineup to improve if they’re to ward off that regression.
Some of that will happen organically. Chisholm has been out a month with a foot injury. Ng recently told Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post on their podcast that he’s likely still several weeks away, but a second-half return should be a boon to the offense. Cooper is a better hitter than this year’s .229/.268/.408 line would indicate. Sánchez is playing regularly now after missing a few weeks in May due to injury.
They’ll need to support that at the deadline, likely by bringing in a left side infielder. Curtailing Segura’s playing time a few months into a two-year, $17MM contract would be a tough pill to swallow, but it might be necessary for a team trying to hang onto a playoff spot.
Players like Jeimer Candelario, Jace Peterson and Patrick Wisdom should be available at the hot corner. There are fewer options at shortstop, though the White Sox could move Tim Anderson and the Cardinals would probably deal Paul DeJong. None of those players can carry a lineup (perhaps unless Anderson bounces back from a tough start), but they’d each provide manager Skip Schumaker some alternatives to continuing to plug Segura in every day.
This deadline season should be an exciting one for Marlins fans. Unless things fall apart within the next six weeks, they’re in position to add in hopes of bolstering a playoff push. Two decades removed from their most recent berth in a 162-game season, the front office shouldn’t hesitate to be aggressive, even if that means making the tough call to bench their biggest free agent pickup of this past offseason.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Will the Marlins make an offer to the Cardinals to trade for Ivan Herrera, Paul DeJong, Tyler O’Neill, and Juan Yepez? And if so, what will the Marlins offer the Cardinals?
Jesus Lazardo or Edward Cabrera would be a good start.
Agreed @444. Marlins need to give up at least one of Lazardo or Cabrera plus Eury, 5 years of supplemental draft picks and all of 2023 & 2024 International pool money for 2nd coming of Yadier Molina in Herrera, perrennial All star in Dejon, future MVP in Oneal and future 5 time HR king in Yepez.
Marlins might have to include Jazz and Arraez and pay their future salaries just to make sure the Cards say yes.
Who hurt you?
@444 hahahaha nobody
But if the cards want to give up their garbage. Marlins can also give away theirs. They have plenty.
Cabrera, Braxton, Luzardo however, are not garbage..
Herrera should be STL not Memphis. O’Neill 2x gold glover with power. Yepez and DeJong 1 good bat 1 good glove I see your point on them.
O’Neill can’t stay on the field.
I agree about cabrera. Maybe even Braxton Garrett. An O’Neil, dejong, hererra and yepez trade would be smart for the fish. Honestly Garrett and another top 15 minor leaguer probably gets it done. Dejongs an upgrade for them(who has no real place in st. Louis), as is yepez as a bench piece. O’Neil is an enigma, could be great or be hurt. And herrera is great future catcher. There would be risk on both sides for sure but could work out great for both teams.
I really think some of you posters need to really think carefully before you post these ridiculous trade suggestions where your team unloads garbage or limited value pieces for another team’s key pieces.
Why the heck would the Marlins trade Luzardo or Cabrera for those pieces from the Cardinals – let alone any team considering those two are key to the Marlins season so far?
one guy that mike make sense for the marlins is david villar. from the giants He is in right now with davis hurt but you also have fitzgerald knocking on the door and schmitt has more than proved he deserves to be there defensively so villar would open a spot on a roster that needs it and at the same time could get some regular playing time on a big league club in what is essentially his hometown
Yeah, a .141 hitter with a career average of .196 and OBP of .225 is going to make the Marlins bench Segura.
The Marlins should be calling the Reds and the Orioles as both of those have a lot of good infield prospects and the Marlins have pitching to offer and controllable. Definitely see a match with both of those teams.
Yes, a Gallen-Chisholm redux makes sense here.
Article says they need league level talent now so not prospects. But, that would still be the Os. Yes? Urias. Pro fielder. Batting 5th against Toronto today. Cheap. Hey Miami, got pitching?
They have big league talent ready like Westburg and the other kid that was a second rounder in 21 who name escapes me.
Um, the Marlins are trying to stay contending this year, not after this year. Why would a team in Playoff position trade for unproven players at the deadline for their attempts to make the Playoffs?
I’m assuming the marlins don’t think this year is their best chance to win a World Series…….
@Bstrowmang
Agreed that this wouldn’t be considered their best chance, but two things.
1 – You never throw away any chance, especially after so many years of rebuilding. And no one knows how the young players will progress as the season goes longer (see 2003 Marlins; 1969 Mets). Also, MLB is the main sport when it comes to “just make it into the Playoffs, and see what happens”.
2 – After working on the team for so many years and getting to this point, why should the Marlins set themselves back another 2 years – more or less?
Especially when you never know how your pitching will turn out. Case in point, im sure the Mets thought they would be there every year with Harvey, Matz, wheeler, Degrom and Thor, how did that turn out for them? Take advantage now, never know what’ll happen tomorrow
I mean, not Gallen-Jazz per se, but something along those lines.
The Rangers too. Justin Foscue needs a shot at a big league roster
Eury Perez for EDLC, who says no?
Both
Lmao you’re joking right?
eury perez for matt mclain and alexis diaz, who says no? neither team would actually do it i dont think, but where is there more value?
Pending how competent reds are in other bullpen options – neither say no. It’ll never happen, but it should
@pohle I think if the Marlins include Sandy and Jazz plus Eury for the future greatest SS ever in mcLain and future 10 time Rolaids Relief pitcher of the year winner in Alex diaz, Reds might say yes.
I think we need to add Arraez too, along with money to cover Sandy’s contract.
@rdiddy
I agree the O’s would be an ideal trade partner as they have an embarrassment of riches in infielders, esp those with some pop. Lazardo would be a good add to their rotation as well.
Marlins are very unlikely to trade Luzardo. He is key to the Marlins season so far.
Josh Harrison is available#
Jose Iglesias maybe?
Jonathan Schoop…not even a nice try on my part.
May I interest you in a slightly used Kolton Wong free of charge
Marlins should definitely upgrade. I see the Phillies catching them eventually in the standings.
Marlins pockets are full but the stores are empty. Too many contenders w so many playoff teams
@Big whiffa
We’re seeing the same thing. There are less than a handful of teams that are currently appearing the be sellers. The AL and NL Central have wrecked the potential trade market because of the mediocre teams that are unable to have one team pull away, while teams under .500 are still hopefuls for the division titles in those divisions.
Now if a team from each of those divisions can take control and pull away from the rest of those bad packs, then it’ll open up the trade market a bit.
The team for the Marlins to keep an eye on is the White Sox. If they are sellers, the Marlins can get some rentals that are fits…such as Grandal, Tim Anderson, etc.
The white Sox are so bad in part because Tim Anderson is a terrible defensive SS and Grandal is an awful defensive catcher now.
Have you seen our guys?
I don’t see the Marlins falling. I think they’re a legit Wild Card team. Phillies are hot right now, but that’s a hard pace to keep up. Mets will go on a winning streak at some point as well. That being said, I still like the Marlins getting at least the 3rd Wild Card.
The West, has the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Padres and Giants, ( one wins division), all in the wildcard mix. The Phillies and Mets, are also prime wildcard contenders. That is 5 teams, that the Marlins must beat out three, to grab one of the wildcards. Is it possible, yes, but not very likely.
The Marlins should switch Segura and Arraez, in the infield. Segura is a well above average second baseman, and would probably start hitting, if back at his more natural position.
You’re right. It’s going to be a tough and crowded field. The Padres, Phillies and Mets should be in the mix on talent alone. If I had to pick one team to drop in the second half, it would be San Francisco, but you never know.
It will be a tough race for sure, but the team that might not turn around is the Mets because of the age thing. They certainly have many guys with the resumes, but for many of them, those resumes are long.
The Phillies are a concern because they are primed along with their players.
It looks like the NL East Wild Card hopefuls will be battling for two spots since it looks like the loser of the NL West will get one. And nobody should go to sleep on the Giants.
the only reason I doubt them is that they have been over performing – they haven’t to my knowledge carried a positive run differential all season and have made their living on beating one run games which although impressive is also is not normally sustainable
Here’s the situation that is the reason they have won so many close games and may continue to for the rest of the season.
The Marlins had this same pattern in how their games went the last two years when they were losing 1-run games. The last two years, their bullpen was blowing just about every lead in sight because they had garbage trying to close games (Tanner Scott, Anthony Bass, Yimi Garcia, Dylan Floro, Okert, etc.) This year, so far, AJ Puk has stabilized the Closer role, and Barnes has come in a sort of coming in and pulled through earlier innings. The rest of the bullpen has been able to go into lesser pressure situations, which they can handle. They’ve been holding their leads this year.
So essentially, this is the third year in a row they’ve been taking leads into the late innings, but this year, their bullpen has been holding the leads since their additions have stabilized the roles.
Since Royce Lewis is healthy now maybe the Twins would be willing to shop Kyle Farmer? He’s arb eligible next year so not a rental. Miranda is still lurking in AAA waiting for another opportunity too
Pretenders
Why don’t they get Jacob Amaya some reps at 3B in the minors? Amaya’s bat has improved after a slow start and he’s a RHB, a natural complement to Wendle who’s a LHB. They’ve had Amaya play 2B but no games at 3B yet.
Paul Dejong and Ivan Herrera for a young Marlins pitcher also makes sense to me.
Ivan Herrera is the franchise’s future catcher. He’s not going anywhere particularly not for what a crapshoot young pitchers tend to be.
That’s fine, I understand why cardinal fans like yourself feel that way but St. Louis needs pitching and they have to get it somewhere.
Enjoy your baiting in the comments section
If pointing out that your trade idea makes little sense in the realm of reality is baiting then I suppose you caught me.
I was referring to the other 90% of your comments, which always focus on Ng. Like the one you posted directly below this. It’s funny because I actually agree with your premise that she’s being favored by the league in unfair ways. It’s still obvious to me that you’re a baiting troll. I’m surprised MLBTR let’s you troll every Marlins thread. I also like how you like your own comments immediately after posting. You don’t even wait 30 seconds.
But troll on brother, on this site it’s encouraged despite costing the website views
Herrera is an intriguing offensive C and could possibly be a good starter but the Cards signing Contreras to a 5 yr deal does not show a lot of confidence in Herrera.
The Cardinals have already demonstrated that they have little faith in Contreras despite the magnitude of his contract. Furthermore, to say that a team bringing an established player in means said team lacks confidence in a future talent doesn’t hold a lot of water.
The marlins have young pitchers that Stl would beg for in a deal for Herrera and include more prospects. I don’t think Miami would or should give up their best like Sandy or Eury, but they do count as young Miami pitchers. If you think there’s no pitcher Mo would take for any of his catchers, then you don’t know baseball.
$87.5 million dollars clearly demonstrates that Cards have more faith in Wilson than they do Herrera.
The fact that Contreras has regressed ( at least early on) only makes the Cards catching situation worse. .
Kim Ng will definitely find the players who fit the bill and if she doesn’t it will only be because other GMs are too bigoted to trade with her.
I’ve figured this out, trade for Yoan Moncado who could probably bring a bag of balls, but you would be helping the White Sox and Moncados ridiculous 24 million yearly contract
I was thinking the WS could land a decent haul for Jake Burger, but he’s too busy being Moncada’s understudy.
I still don’t forgive them for orchestrating Dee Gordon’s sham HR against the Mets.
Yes. They used special effects for that. And black magic.
Kim and Skip have made the Mets, Phils and Pads look bad.
Well, no, those teams have done it to themselves.
Hold on to this comment. It’s June.
Well last year Phils – unlike Mets and Pads took a change at the helm and got a quick boost. But this year, Ranger is the only starting pitcher who looks good, and three starts ago his era was 7+. I see Atlanta, Dodgers and Diamondbacks as locks. I can still see one team out of Pads, Phils and Mets making it as a wildcard.
Wheeler, Walker and Ranger have all looked great lately. Nola has improved too, but still seems to have issues pitching out of the stretch. They have won 10 of 12, taking 4 series in a row and the starting pitching has been a huge part of that.
The only lock I see is Atlanta. Diamondbacks and Dodgers are great, but it’s June and a lot can happen.
Exactly.
Did you notice that the Mets payroll is more than the combined payroll of the Rays, Orioles, Marlins and Pirates – 2 current division leaders and 2 Wild Card teams….two of which currently have the two best records in MLB?
Ryan McMahon makes a lot of sense since his trade value has dipped a bit, and he looks like he could use a change of scenery, but COL in recent years have NOT been open to such in season trades even if they make a lot of sense. Rockies prefer to hold on to their players win, lose, or draw and give .500 their best shot.
As I’ve said a lot, move Jazz back to the infield and give guys like Xavier Edwards, Jacob Amaya, Jordan Groshans opportunity. We dont need to see more of Segura, just b/c you wasted your money on him, or more Wendle after you waited too long to trade him last year. We also mostly know what we get from Berti as well. Find out what you have
You might not even need to use resources at 3b/SS, and can focus more on a SP or 2 and a high leverage bullpen arm, or 2
Agreed. We’ve got some time before the deadline to see if we have in-houses solutions.
Also, with the news of Jazz’s return time, I too think that, when he starts his rehab, it should be at SS so he returns in the infield.
Also, I’m loving Sanchez and De La Cruz taking control of those corner OF spots. With these developments, I say swap Garcia for someone else’s bad contract from a position that we need. As crazy as it sounds, if the Cardinals really want to move Contreras or if the Tigers want to move Baez, I’d see if we can do one of those deals with Garcia as our bad contract going the other way. It’s sad, but Contreras and Baez as they are now, are still upgrades over what we have at their spots.
I say continue to ride the wave of Garcoa on the dl, and pray someone will trade for hom somehow, but I dont know what type of contract for contract deal theyd be able to do that is worth it…
Those guys should have been given the chance in the first place, and then they wouldnt have wasted their money on Garcia, after not being willing to pay Marte less than that just a few months earlier
Our pitching depth is definitely worrisome. Not sure what they’re going to do with Eury. I would hope they let him go 125 innings, maybe slightly spread out or whatever, or give him a later start next year…At this point, we need him, and it would be nice if they let him go past 5 again, as they did last night, when necessary. Kid is a bigger Scherzer
I’m still not confident in the bullpen. I feel as though there has been a lot of luck so far with that, so I would still like to see that addressed
Marlins have a bunch of similar infield type of prospects at their upper minor levels, so those guys getting those chances would be the play, and we’ve already seen Edwards hit well in short sample size
Andersons can’t carry a lineup even when he’s actually hitting, unless the White Sox are taking pennies on the dollar that should be a hard pass
Segura is really holding them back. This is a team with a lot of talent and has a legit shot at October ball if they can address a couple spots before August. And, hopefully Soler doesn’t fall off the cliff with his scorching start
For the Marlins, I’m not sure what is available that makes me want them to trade for. I’m looking only at the White Sox as the only possible seller (if someone can take control and the White Sox can fall back in their division) that has pieces that the Marlins can use as rentals.
Rockies imo SHOULD be selling, but for years common sense is strictly against company policy, so they’ll either be standing pat or continuing to scour the waiver wire for any able-bodied SP.
The marlins should trade for one of the Pirates catching prospects (Rodriguez or davis). That will be expensive but the Pirates could use the resources better than having 2 catchers and the marlins would get a close to mlb ready catcher that can help them the next couple years.
For example pirates get Jake Eder and khalil Watson for Endy Rodriguez.
That trade could help both teams for the next couple years.
I agree, but MIA took a pass on Alfaro who would have been better than either of their 2 current catchers, and I assume they just didn’t want to go to that well again. They might be averse to a trade with PIT for another C since the last such trade got them into their current situation.
Outside of Cooper, Arraez, and Chisholm, the offense looks pretty weak. Wendle is playable, I’d say hes slightly above average. Sanchez is not going to keep up what hes been doing, I never thought he was any good. With that being said, I don’t know if the Cardinals would do this but what about Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado for Eury Perez, Meyer, Kahlil Watson, Jean Segura, and Jordan Groshans. This would be a block buster trade. The Cardinals have a lot of young players that need playing time and opens up third for Jordan Walker and 1st for Nolan Gorman. This would also give the Cardinals young pitching, which is their most desperate need right now. This trade makes the Marlins offense instantly elite. Don’t see the Cardinals trading away their superstars but you never know
Arenado is 32 years old and signed through 2027 making roughly 35 million a year, while Goldschmidt is signed through ‘24 making 26 million, unless the Cardinals were to pick up the vast majority of that nearly 60 million a year this deal would have less than zero chance of happening. Not that there is a snowballs chance in hell of it happening regardless.
Interesting mention for a trade with the Cardinals for Arenado and/or Goldschmidt.
One thing, any move that involves the Marlins picking up that amount of money would almost certainly require a team taking on Avi Garcia’s contract in return.
Now with the names mentioned in this trade, to acquire both and the Cardinals picking up Garcia’s contract, and clearing space for the new arrivals, the Marlins probably could add Garcia and Garrett Cooper, then the Cardinals add a piece or two of organizational depth to bring some balance.
Just my thought.
Highly doubt Ng parts with Cooper. Too valuable.
I do see the Cardinals trading Goldschmidt at the deadline. Their pitching situation is dire, and they need to make some moves to build for the future. With only 1 more season of control, Goldschmidt just makes sense to me. Plenty of contenders would be willing to make that move, possibly even the Marlins.
Doubt that the Rangers would part with Zeke Duran. But he can play SS, 3B, OF. Package him with Mitch Garver behind the dish and you’re talking about plugging some holes. Rangers can use pitching with deGrom out and Miami has lots of attractive arms. Just don’t know what Miami would have to part with to pry Zeke away.
If you’re talking any of the young cost controlled arms currently in their rotation, I can guarantee you that its not going to be the haul you think it is. Lets just say for $hits and giggles that they would consider parting with Cabrera or Luzardo, a deal for one of them would be straight 1 for 1 with maybe a minor piece going somewhere else.
As for Garver, hes a 32 year old free agent to be who is outperforming. his babip is 82 points higher than his career babip, hes due for regression. Wouldn’t take much to acquire him, and thats if he hasn’t already started to come to norms by the time he is possibly traded