The Red Sox rotation is facing a great deal of uncertainty headed into the All Star break. Right-hander Garrett Whitlock was placed on the injured list earlier this week with elbow inflammation, joining Tanner Houck, Chris Sale, and Corey Kluber on the shelf among the club’s starting options.
It seems their lack of rotation options won’t be cleared up anytime soon, as Alex Cora told reporters, including The Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams, that the club has no intention of moving right-hander Nick Pivetta out of his current bulk role out of the bullpen. What’s more, Alex Speier of The Boston Globe relays that Cora indicated to reporters that Houck, who is expected to begin throwing again next week, could be ramped up for “a role other than starter” as he looks to return from the injured list. With Pivetta sticking to relief work and Houck seemingly poised to join him upon his return, it seems that Boston will be relying on bullpen games and spot starters to cover innings alongside James Paxton, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford for the time being.
It’s easy to see why the club would prefer both Pivetta and Houck out of the bullpen. Pivetta posted a 6.30 ERA in eight starts this season prior to his mid-May move to the bullpen, but has become one of the most reliable relievers in the club’s bullpen since then. In 29 innings of relief across 14 appearances, Pivetta has dominated hitters to the tune of a 2.79 ERA and 3.29 FIP, with a strikeout rate of 33.7%. Houck, meanwhile, scuffled to a 5.05 ERA across 13 starts this season prior to his placement on the IL. While advanced metrics generally agree he’s pitched a bit better than the results would otherwise indicate, with a FIP of 4.24 and an xERA of 3.85, it’s easy to see why Boston would be enticed by Houck’s career 2.68 ERA in 53 2/3 innings out of the bullpen.
One pitcher who seems clearly ticketed for a long-term role in the rotation is Bello, who’s impressed with a 3.04 ERA and 3.78 FIP across 14 starts this season. According to WEEI’s Rob Bradford, the young right-hander was asked by reporters if the Red Sox had approached him regarding extension conversations, which Bello indicated they had not done. That being said, the 24 year old went on to express openness to the idea.
“I would love it. I love this organization.” Bello said. “I would love to stay here, but I haven’t really given it much thought.”
Of course, there’s no rush on any such discussions. Bello entered the 2023 campaign with just 82 days of service time, and as such is under team control through the end of the 2028 campaign. Still, early-career extensions have become more prevalent in recent years. Spencer Strider, a fellow young pitcher who inked a six-year $75MM extension with the Braves following his rookie season last year, is among the many recent examples of youngsters signing long term deals with their clubs at the beginning of their careers.
Houck should stay in the rotation, but Whitlock should be the one who comes back to the pen
The Sox’ insistence on making Whitlock back into a starter has been perplexing. And here again, he broke down at 10 starts…he was unhittable for long stretches as a reliever a couple years ago.
Shades of Daniel Bard isn’t it? You just hope they don’t screw someone up to where they can’t transition back to the pen well either.
GASox – Also shades of Joba.
BTW – Whitlock was also injured as a reliever in both 2021 and 2022.
Fever – it’s also easier to cover for an injured reliever than an injured starter, as a related but unrelated point.
GASox – That’s true, relievers aren’t part of a set rotation.
I agree Whitlock gets hurt too much. He belongs as a reliever not a starter. They are going to ruin this kid. The players are hoping for starter money when they are in the rotation as opposed to relief pitcher money.
I think Whitlock wants to be a starter and that’s why the club has tried to make it happen. Now though I think the club has leverage to sit Whitlock down and say “due to durability concerns we believe you are better off in the bullpen.” Houck is a starter if you are going to transition anybody else from the rotation to the bullpen, it’s time to do that with Chris Sale. Sale can do what John Smoltz did late in his career, go from a top-tier ace to a shutdown closer.
They all want to start for one simple reason: They can make more money! Fourth or Fifth starter can make more than practically any pitcher in the bullpen with exception to the closer.
Whitlock signed a 5 year extension so that ship kind of sailed for now
bello is for real. pitchers break all the time now but if i were bloom i would offer an extension
He’s under team control until 2029.
This pitcher is going to cost a ton of money in arbitration, barring major injury.
Yeah, and arbitration isn’t until 2026.
Zero reason to extend when still pre-arb.
You can get him cheaper. His price goes up every heathy season.
The Braves model does indeed appear to be working at this point. That team was locked in early, cheaply, and for a good while. Looks great for them and scary for the rest of the league now, but I guess we’ll see how smart is was in a 2-3 years? Definitely surprised more teams havent followed suit.
Teams like the Sox have contracts on the books like Sale’s, Paxton’s, Duvall, JT, Masa, Hanley, and now Devers. That’s over $100 M for 7 players.
Not included are KHern, and Whitlock’s extension. Pretty slippery slope with a 26-player roster and try to stay under the Cap.
Sin joe…. They once had long control over Mookie/ Xman…too… I get it with maybe a pitcher more than every day player but they haven’t done this with home grown talent since petey and Youk..,while many other teams/ Astros/ Rays/braves have and it shows..
With all the TJ surgeries these days, I would be very hesitant to extend a pitcher with 4-5 years of control left.
milt – I agree, and I think that’s why you don’t see extensions for pitchers like you do for position players.
Looking at a guy like Strasburg who has been healthy only 5 out of 13 seasons, wasted money for sure.
Pivetta pitched 5 innings the other day. and threw 76 pitches. It doesn’t matter if he “starts” or not, if that’s how they use him.
Nice to see him accepting that role. He was not happy about it in Philly.
Yes, I remember witnessing a few of those tantrums.
I agree Bello looks good, but the team already controls his rights for at least 6 yrs. Boston may want to at least assess his work ethic, durability, effectiveness etc for a year or two before they offer an extension. The Yankees should have done this with Luis Severino, but acted rashly by locking him up prematurely. Look at Atlanta for example, they lock a LOT of players up, but very few pitchers.
Zero reason to consider an extension on a guy who is still pre-arb.
It all depends on price. Whitlock was locked up early. And, even allowing for his injury issues, if they just leave him in the pen where he’s strongest you free up money for a starter instead. And it was a good value.
Whitlock was lockdown man in the pen. Houck was a nice setup man. If you picked up all his options you had 6 years of control for 36.5m
The redsox are paying that much for TWO years of Jansen, who has been less impressive than Whitlock was.
Now, what would’ve been better, Whitlock giving BETTER than Jansen has been PLUS giving Jansen’s money to Eovaldi (or someone else if you just hated himnfor reasons unknown) to start? Or, do like Bloom and experiment with Whitlock in the rotation, and bring in an aging end-of-career Jansen?
Both would’ve cost the same.
When you find a formula that works, you stick with it and don’t break what wasn’t broken. Keep Story at 2B where he was shining. Keep Whitlock in the pen. Allocate the money better, they’re spending plenty, just not wisely.
So, depending on his price? Locking bello in MIGHT be a good value. But if he’s asking top dollar to be paid like an ace, go year to year with him.
You’re right, it does depend on price, but Bello isn’t going to take short money.
Whitlock is 27 and only has 18.75M guaranteed over the life of his contract. and was a Rule 5 draft acquisition. He is the type of dude that would jump at short money for some job security.
Bello would almost certainly take “short money” dude has banked nothing in his career and won’t for at least 2 more years. He would take striders deal in a heart beat which is extremely good value for the team.
Not if he had a good agent. He’d be giving up 10s of millions of dollars if he did, He’ll be making a ton once he hits Arb in a few years.
Can’t agree with u on this sychohant. Sounds like the mlbpa outlook, then not considering what a player(s) may want when always looking out for potential money.. *IF* everything continues as-is and no thoughts of possible injury, slippage from a player taking a small amount less for guaranteed cash now.
Think like a possible extension signee does.. Came from nothing, never had big money before and that guaranteed future looks brighter than if everything falls into place just perfectly.
Arb is a progressive number. You don’t jump from 1m to 20m in a single year.
Reality is, bello only opened the year with 82 days service time. He’s not going to make it as a super 2 player, he’s too far out.
He makes league minimum. He’ll make league minimum again in 2024, and again in 2025. The team can simply renew his rights at less than a million a pop both those years. His first shot at arb will be 2026, and the team will hold his rights until 2929 when he will be 30 years old.
So, let’s figure year one of arb he gets a raise from under $1m to maybe 5 or 6m, tops, if he’s playing ace level stuff. Then he jumps to what, in year 2 of arb? Last winter Fried tied the record set in ’19 by Cole at 13.5m for a second trip through arb. Then you get one last trip through arb in year three.
So, if we say bello matches those maxed out salaries from last winter which represents a pinnacle for arb eligible pitchers so far, he gets under $2m more pre-arb, and a total of $20m more in the next two years after, the 2026 and 2027 seasons. That’s $22m over 4 years, with a final year of arb salary remaining. He’s no Shohei so he’s not going to complain the $30m of a two way player settling with his team before FA. Realistically? Probably a 19-22m contract in the last year.
That’s all present-day values. You can argue arb salaries will try to push upwards, but, it’s not as slam dunk as you think seeing how the top second year arb, 5th year SP player salary was the same in 2019 and 2023.
So the ceiling, assuming NO injuries or regression, is around a 44-45m deal spanning 2024-2028 with free agency in 2029. And at that price, the team gets no upside, so may as well go year to year. Either you need to add options to sweeten the pot and induce the team, or, discount off $45/5yrs on your extension demand which would represent top of the arb market award-wise.
syco – You’re absolutely right on Whitlock, and that is indeed why he jumped at that contract. Pitchers know their health risks better than anybody, they know when it’s wise to take longterm security because of a high risk of injury. Sale did the same thing with his extension.
I’ve always said if a team sticks to a policy of holding off on longterm extensions and instead pays a little more in the long run, they will be better off because they will avoid all the dead money lost because of injuries.
His work ethic for his age is one of the main (of many) reasons why he is so special. Being mentored by Pedro has really shown in his game prep already, he’s one of those first in the park always watching film guys. They said in the broadcast the other night that Cora joked to reporters how Bello drives him crazy on his start days by texting him 5 times if he has the final lineup ready because of how prepared he likes to be for the game. As for long term durability, only time can tell, but his stamina right now is definitely showing strongly with how deep he keeps going into games.
I do agree right now is too soon to extend, but I would definitely encourage it after next season if he has another great or greater year!
’17 &’18 Sevy made 63 starts, 2 AS teams and was top 9 CY both years. The contract was absolutely fine. Injuries compromised it’s value. What are you going to do?
Stud – I think that’s the biggest factor in deciding whether or not to give a longterm extension, whether the player will stay healthy. These days, especially for pitchers, they are more likely to miss a large amount of games because of injury than to not.
The Red Sox are really no different than most MLB teams. How many teams have 5 starting pitchers in their rotations that they can depend on to go 5 innings most starts?
Between the dilution of the pool of quality pitchers due to expansion and the demand for pitchers to throw harder and harder (even fans that don’t go to games can read up on how fast they’re throwing
…..broken down by types of pitches), pitchers are burning themselves out and breaking down due to injuries.
When 7 innings was declared a “Quality Start” many fans laughed. Now if a starter goes 5 innings semi-regularly that’s very good. We’re at a point where most teams already have just 2 or 3 starters, 2 back-end relief pitchers, and primarily a group of “bulk” pitchers (they used to be called “long relievers”) that can pitch 2-5 innings if they have it that day…..and as we see, a 13 man pitching staff on their ML level and anywhere from 5-8 pitchers on a virtual roster of their high minors teams that are called up (all MLB teams use a least 30 pitchers during a season…..and have for years).
It would be interesting to see a breakdown of the number of 3 year contracts given to pitchers were good investments.
The amazing thing is that the shifts were outlawed this year, yet most players BA’s have not gone up. The analytic revolution long ago took the balance and integrity out of the sport…but that’s OK because most fans don’t watch games – they look at highlights and check the Internet for stats.
Quality start has always been 6 innings 3 earned runs or less.
riffraff;
When it first came out (before it was official) a Quality Start was regarded as 7 innings. Then as typical in America, that standard was lowered….and still most starting pitchers seldom hit it.
Could you point me in a general direction as to where I would find that fact? Not disputing it – you could very well be right but every source I could find stated it was created in 1985 ( which , to me, is when it first came out) and has never moved or changed. Thats according to baseball reference, bleacher report, wikipedia and few other sites ( I know wikipedia not always super reliable)
riffraff7;
Tried. No. However, consider this……
A pitcher that goes 6 innings and gives up 3 runs has an ERA for the day of 4.50.
According to Baseball Reference today, LEAGUE AVERAGE ERA is 4.29.
So, a pitcher can achieve a “Quality Start” by pitching below league average.
?
Standards keep dropping to sell a product that keeps dropping, and people keep celebrating them.
My points stand.
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I tried finding how many Quality Starts there were this year in comparison to starts made. Can’t. If you find it, please post.
Thanks.
To your request about finding the ratio between quality starts to starts made -seems to have peaked in 2014 ( 1922 quality starts) and decreased every year ( 1264 in 2021..last year of stats this site provided pitcherlist.com ) I just googled quality start and that came up. I think the decline is not 100% because of lower standards type deal but more of strict pitch count on younger pitchers and the use of openers. I’m certain with some digging and math this years numbers are somewhere..baseballreference would be best bet.
As to your other point – quality start is minimum of 6IP..could also be 7,8 or 9IP as long as 3 ER or less. so would need to look up how many quality starts are of the 6 inning variety before comparing to league average ERA ( which I also believe includes relief pitchers as well as postion players who pitch in blowouts – which kind of muddies up the waters as well.
Still found nothing that states a quality start was ever 7 IP as you claimed.. not disputing your point just that you stated a fact which appears to be incorrect to make your point.
According to Baseball Reference today, LEAGUE AVERAGE ERA is 4.29.
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A little selection bias there. The SPs always have worse ERAs than the RPs, so that should be the comparison. The SP average ERA is 4.42, so 4.50 is the right comp.
And since IPs are at a premium these days, I would suggest that someone that averages 4.50 with 6 IPs is better than someone with a 4.42 with 5.21 IPs (current league averages).
Plus it is a term of art. No one is going to establish a QS as a 4.42 with 5.21 IPs.
These are some absolutely miserable boomer ass takes
EricS;
Yours is a typical take from someone that has no idea how to play baseball properly, delights in mediocrity, thinks depth charts and stats matter, and are befuddled each year by which teams “get hot” and go deep in the playoffs.
Interesting that you know all of my takes lol. I can tell by your posts here that I know infinitely more about baseball than you do. However, I also know what I don’t know and don’t sit here being a keyboard warrior who claims to know everything. You would instantly gain intelligence by shutting your mouth every once in a while.
Houck, Whitlock, and Pivetta should all be in the bullpen. Trade Kenley at the trade deadline, move Martin to the closer role, and have Whitlock and Houck for 7th and 8th innings. Based on their past performances, they make a pretty formidable trio to close games.
In regards to Whitlock, he was doing well as a starter in AA before the surgery. IMO giving him the opportunity to establish himself as a SP, at least in the short term, is perfectly reasonable. To say it’s not requires a series of assumptions: a) he can pitch in relief at or near his ’21 performance consistently (b) his injuries are fully a result of him starting and (c) there was no agreement/understanding that he would be given the opportunity to start as a condition of hm signing the contract.
In regards to Bello, if you use Strider as a comparison, $75 mill guaranteed over the next 6 years versus $0 guaranteed is always worth serious consideration by the player.
Trade Kenly for a starter who can provide innings at a 4.00 e.r.a. Move Martin to closer. Keep Pivetta in long relief. Use Houck, Whitlock, and Schreiber in the 6th, 7th, 8th as set up. Pretty formidable based on past performances.
What would Kenly and Duvall bring back as a starter?
Not an ace, but maybe a number 2 or 3.
If you could either get a buchholz/e-rod level starter, solid mid rotation with flashes of higher ceiling but with durability concerns, OR, a workhorse #5 type like porcello, either one with 3 years control left, that would be a winning trade and a welcome addition to the rotation.
E-Rod. The Tigers would jump at the chance to get out of his contract and would then trade away Kenly and Duvall for anything they can get.
Well, I was thinking the arb-level contract version, not the bloated free agent contract version rmullig2. Just using the players as examples for talent level from their timen im boston.
Not those exact players, but their type of performer
GASox – If ERod stays healthy, he’s opting out this winter because he’s having an amazing season at a bargain price.
But yeah, staying healthy is a big if … as it is with nearly every pitcher.
Injuries aside, the Red Sox have an unusually high number of pitchers who could wind up pitching 100 innings. Lots of creativity is required with this bunch. Pivetta is thriving in the long relief role, good for him. I think Winc was being used kind of like Whitlock but I think he needs to be scaled back. They need Houck to return and be effective, he’s one tough cookie. It’s still a work in progress but the potential is there.
Houck should stay in the rotation. We need starters, and the Sox have a decent one in Houck. Just let him pitch.
As it stands now.. I can’t see them making playoffs or being a factor if they did squeeze in.. that being said don’t you guys think Big maple brings back 1-2 soild prospects not a teams 1-3 but hey he’s walking after this year anyways….
Right now this team should go a solid 8-2 over this series and the next few sets of games, which will distort their apparent odds before they begin to once again slide backwards. It’ll have more to do with opponent quality than team quality, we can only hope it doesn’t affect taking a realistic approach to the deadline.
which will distort their apparent odds before they begin to once again slide backwards.
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It’s more like it is sliding back to the expected 0.00. Right now, BR has them as the #3 highest strength of schedule. The 9-game schedule of Oak-CHC-Oak only returns us to normal.
And at this point, there is no realistic approach to the deadline. There is no reason to think we cannot be competitive. We’re doing pretty well considering we only have two of out regulars in the rotation.
Joe, to be realistic though, it was the rotation Bloom designed. The plan was to put Kluber there who was a failure. Even if kluber was healthy you don’t want him there. Likewise, Pivetta was planned for a slot all along. He wasn’t that good, which many expected, but it was blooms plan. The fact he is in the pen is because the PBO just didn’t assemble a good starting 5. In my eyes, you lost sale, who, again, everyone had serious and well founded concerns about him, but, again, the PBO choose to go with that risk, he didn’t have to as both Wacha and Eovaldi wanted back in and Bloom said no thanks.
Really, the only unexpected was both Whitlock and Houck who were supposed to compete for the last spot going down. Everyone else there is no surprise they are where they are as far as not contributing in the rotation. So, missing your #5 is a surprise, but none of the rest really are.
As far as reasons not to think the team cannot be competitive, I point to SS, 2B, the underperforming 1B which isn’t a surprise based on data from last fall, and a weaker than desired C which was well overdue for regression based on career data.
Is the team playing hard with what they’ve got? Yes. Is this a team with any shot of being a competitive postseason club? Still don’t see it. Didnt see it before the season, and I still don’t see a path as they exist now. (But that’s just my opinion, everyone is entitled to their own)
I do think there’s assets they can sell and improve both in season and going forwards. I think SD or CIN would be a good place to seek infield improvement on the trade market, or, you *might* squeeze an upgrade at C out of HOU if you’re really lucky by using your strength in 1b/dh and OF depth off the mlb club as trade pieces well before the deadline.
And I think if you *STILL* listen on everything not nailed down or young pitching to see if you can build a sustained core for 2024/onwards by using all your expiring vets + opt out guys like JT and of course, throw in kenley. Sometimes it’s better to sacrifice a fringey maybe WC but likely not run to build a stronger organization
GASox – Does any team in the AL really scare you?
Tampa is falling back fast, on a current 7-game losing streak. McClanahan is always hurt, Glasnow is hurting again.
Rangers have lost 7 of their last 10, Orioles are talented but very young and inexperienced, Astros can’t stay healthy.
I’m not saying the Sox would make a postseason run, but if they get back most of the players who are injured – especially Sale, Houck, Whitlock, Schreiber, McGuire and Story – and Kike does what he usually does in the postseason, anything is possible. Nobody expected them to come within 2 wins of the WS back in 2021, unpredictable stuff happens.
And I think if you *STILL* listen on everything not nailed down
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If I were Bloom, I’d have two separate bid/ask rooms: one if we are 59-47 and one if we are 53-53. That’s where I am buying and selling. Anything in between and I have to rely on medical reports on Story, Sale, Whitlock, etc.
We have both trade capital and prospects to be traded, depending on record and momentum.
To that point, over that past 30 games:
TOR 16-14
NYY 14-16
HOU 14-16
SEA 15-15
TEX 12-18
BOS 17-13
This is an exercise for lazy days, but if replicated these results over the next 60 games, we’d be tied with TOR, and ahead of the other 4 teams.
Sign Bello now! Give him a good 8 year deal. Whitlock and Houck are relievers and should be used as such. Try a couple of the kids in the minors for starting pitchers! I would not trade too much this year. The Sox are still a year or two away but we are getting closer than most people think.
The dude that got the save today should be starting. This opener/ bulk crap has got to stop.
“Meanwhile” belongs at the start of the sentence, not in the middle of it, set off by commas.