The Cubs are on the verge of getting a big arm back as they try to keep pace in the National League Wild Card chase and in the NL Central. Manager David Ross said yesterday (link via MLB.com) that “all signs point” to Marcus Stroman returning to the team on Wednesday, when he’s first eligible to return from a stay on the 15-day injured list. Stroman added that he’s “in a way better space” following the downtime, suggesting that the hip injury which has plagued him ultimately led him to try to compensate — and thus compromise his mechanics.
Stroman, 32, was excellent for his first 16 starts this season, pitching to a 2.28 ERA with a 21.4% strikeout rate, an 8.8% walk rate and a massive 59.9% ground-ball rate. His .235 average on balls in play and 80.2% strand rate both appeared bound for regression, but not to the extent that transpired. In his next seven starts, Stroman was shelled for 30 runs in 30 innings. His strikeout rate dipped to 18.8% and his grounder rate fell to 52.9% — all while his walk rate spiked up to 10.9%.
Overall, Stroman’s 3.85 ERA in 128 2/3 innings is still a solid mark on the season — one that likely puts him in position to turn down his 2024 player option at season’s end. Stroman could pick up said option and lock in a $21MM salary for the upcoming season, but he’s far likelier to return to free agency in search of another multi-year contract (which he’ll very likely find). The right-hander sports a 3.35 ERA, 21% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 53.3% ground-ball rate over his past 630 2/3 big league innings, dating back to 2019. He’s also already received a qualifying offer in his career, meaning he can’t receive another one. As such, teams interested in signing the righty won’t have to worry about draft-pick compensation.
Stroman’s impending return to the rotation comes at a time when the Cubs have been shuffling the starting staff. The Cubs bumped left-hander Drew Smyly to the bullpen over the weekend, though Ross told reporters that the move would only be “for a short amount of time” (link via Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). The hope will be that moving into relief work for a bit will give the struggling lefty something of a reset. Pitching coach Tommy Hottovy noted that “getting guys in the bullpen in short bursts to reset and get your mind back into attacking the strike zone and simplifying things” can sometimes help pitchers turn a corner.
It’s indeed been a rough patch for the 34-year-old Smyly, who returned to the Cubs on a two-year, $19MM contract in the offseason. Like Stroman, Smyly was excellent through mid-June, notching a 3.38 ERA in 82 2/3 innings. And like Stroman, Smyly went on to pitch to a jarring 9.00 ERA over his next several starts (seven appearances, 35 innings). Smyly’s strikeout and walk rates remained sound — his strikeout rate actually increased — but he’s been extraordinarily homer-prone during this slump, yielding an average of 3.09 round-trippers per nine innings pitched. Smyly owned his struggles and said he’s willing to pitch in whatever role the team wants; he tossed a scoreless inning this weekend in his first relief appearance of the year.
With Stroman returning and Smyly shifting into the ’pen for the time being, rookie Javier Assad could continue to see some work out of the rotation. The 26-year-old’s last two appearances have been starts, and he’s allowed a pair of runs on nine hits and three walks with five strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings. Assad has a 3.12 ERA on the season, though his pedestrian 18.1% strikeout rate and hefty 10.5% walk rate point to some possible regression. For now, he’s in the mix alongside Stroman, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks.
It’s been a remarkable turnaround for the Cubs — a well-timed resurgence that brought the team from the brink of selling at the trade deadline to instead adding infielder Jeimer Candelario and righty Jose Cuas. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic chronicled the team’s rise from likely seller to clear-cut buyer in a piece that Cubs fans, in particular, will want to check out in full. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer discussed the team’s approach with Rosenthal, revealing that the Cubs told inquiring clubs they planned to wait until concluding a four-game series with the Cardinals on July 30 before making a call on their approach.
The second game of that series ended in dramatic fashion, with Cubs outfielder Mike Tauchman robbing Alec Burleson of what would’ve been a walk-off home run. That catch seemingly sealed the Cubs’ direction. It was reported the next day that Cody Bellinger had been taken off the trade market. Hoyer tells Rosenthal that over the course of the weekend, the tone and nature of incoming calls from other clubs quickly changed. Less than 72 hours after Tauchman’s catch, the Cubs acquired Candelario from the Nationals. Rosenthal’s column is full of quotes from Hoyer, Ross, Tauchman, Dansby Swanson, Yan Gomes and others on the team’s rise from a 26-36 club mid-June to their current 61-57 record. The Cubs are 3.5 games out of first place in the Central and just a half-game back the Wild Card standings.
Probably a coincidence since it’s a different player mix, but they did the same thing last season. They were really good in the second half in 2022. Of course, you don’t get any trophies for half-season winning.
No, but you can win a championship for a third of a season of winning…
Last year they were nearly 20 games under .500 at the All Star break..Some teams are just better in the second half. For some that’s enough to get the, into the playoffs. For some, it’s not enough to do ,much.
OK I finally went to Rotoworld and found out about Happ’s contract. It’s worse than I thought:
Cubs agreed to terms with outfielder Ian Happ on a three-year, $61 million contract extension through 2026.
Happ also receives a full no-trade clause, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan and others. We’re surprised he didn’t hold out for more, as he had a very good case for being the best outfielder available in free agency this winter. The 28-year-old is off to a .314/.467/.514 start in 10 games this year. He had a 120 OPS+ last year and is at 114 for his career.
And just for the heck of it:
Contenders helped by schedule
1. Chicago Cubs (.484 SOS)
If you’re a Cubs fan looking for reasons to believe they’re winning the National League Central, you’re probably clinging on to their division-best run differential. We’ll give you another reason by noting that they have the easiest remaining schedule in the NL. Of the Cubs’ remaining 44 games, 21 will come against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Kansas City Royals, Colorado Rockies, Detroit Tigers, and Chicago White Sox. The teams the Cubs are competing with in the Central, the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds, both have more difficult schedules, albeit to the extent that they rank middle of the pack in SOS.
Uncle Mike, I agree that Ian happ is a little cumbersome, but he’s shown the ability to adjust season to season and I have more faith in a rebound to production for him than I have for other guys in the past. Like a Heyward, and some other guys.
I was hoping for maybe a 10 team NTC or something but another full no trade clause to go with Suzuki’s means Happ and Suzuki will be here for the next 3 years guaranteed. So once again we have the Cubs decision to spend rather than promote. And everyone expects them to pony up for Bellinger, Who would be the only one worth it IMO. SMH.
@rememberthecoop
What about having the best team in the first half play the best team in the second half for the WS?
How about playing consistently good all year long.
@Old York
What if the best team in the first half is also the best team in the 2nd half?
They would have to play themselves, which would almost guarantee victory…
Old york? Do you remember 1981? I do I wasn’t even born yet. But the best team with the best record didn’t play in the playoffs
I recall that – it was a strike year. The Reds had the best record in baseball but didn’t qualify for the playoffs.
@iverbure Did you ever find those players who refused to sign with a team specifically *because* they traded him?
@justme789 no didn’t look because the list is probably so small it’s not significant. Teams don’t trade players they want to keep.
Sure they do. Yankees With Chapman? Cubs with Hammel? Mets with Familia? Red Sox with Lester? The facts show that if the team is actually serious about bringing the player back there is no evidence that trading him puts them at any kind of disadvantage.
Jon Lester? Great example of it not happening
Again it happens so infrequently it’s not worth talking about. Might as well say it diesnt happen. You referencing a couple times it happened 7 years ago is funny.
I bet you think you can win the lottery too. About as good of chance of that happening as a trade trading a player away and signing him in the offseason.
Yeah. the Cubs offered him more money than the Red Sox. The point is they wanted to keep and still traded him because they knew that trading him wouldn’t make a difference.
It happens with at least one guy almost every offseason nowadays. But it honestly doesn’t matter how often it does or doesn’t happen What does matter is whether or not the team is serious about bringing the player back. There is no evidence to suggest that trading a player harms your chances of keeping him *if you are serious about bringing him back.* That last part is the key.
No, winning the lottery is a matter of pure chance. Trading a player and then signing him is not. You can make the latter happen by simply offering the player enough money.
Yeah basically doesn’t happen and no team trades a player they want back. Glad you agree and realize you’re wrong now we can move along.
Plenty of teams do and it happens at least once every offseason. But as I said before, it doesn’t matter how often it didn’t happen. What does matter is how serious they are about bringing the player back.
Glad you agree that you’re totally wrong and it doesn’t ever happen
I’m totally right, it happens every year and it doesn’t matter how often it has or hasn’t happened previously because every situation is different.
Glad you agree you’re totally wrong and happens so infrequently it doesn’t happen. Nice to see someone admit they don’t know as much as me. You’re welcome for the education
I’m totally right, it happens every year and it doesn’t matter how often it has or hasn’t happened previously because every situation is different.
Wow you admit you need an education from me that’s big. Yeah never in the history has any team ever wanted a player back for more tips on baseball reply back
I’m totally right, it happens every single year and it doesn’t matter how often it has or hasn’t happened previously because every situation is different.
Nope you’re wrong. You’ve acknowledge that already. End of debate. If you reply again it’s acknowledging you are in fact a virgin.
I’m totally right, it happens every year and it does not matter how often it has or hasn’t happened previously because every situation is different.
Ouch another L for you. Wrong 6 times in this thread alone.
Ok dude. Just name one player who held being traded against his former team when he became a free agent and I’ll stop.
Need Stroman to get it together.
Cubbies should of traded Bellinger and Stroman at the Deadline. Cubbies not making the playoffs this year.
NL wild card is wide open. They have as good of a chance as anyone really
As of this moment they sit .5 game behind the Marlins for the final Wild Card spot.
Remaining schedule for the Cubs:
2 with the Whit Sox
3 with the Royals
3 with the Tigers
7 with the Pirates
6 with the Brewers
3 with the Reds
3 with the Giants
6 with the Rockies
7 with the Diamondbacks
3 with the Braves
The Marlins schedule has:
3 with the Astros
6 with the Dodgers
3 with the Padres
7 with the National
2 with the Rays
3 with the Phillies
7 with the Brewers
3 with the Braves
6 with the Mets
3 with the Pirates
Strength of schedule favors the Cubs slightly but if it comes down to the final week of the season i like the Marlins chances a little more as they play 3 at the Mets and 3 at the Pirates while the Cubs play 3 at the Braves and 3 at the Brewers
Rsox—-nice on the Marlins but the Cubs very well have a solid chance to catch all of the Brewers, Giants and Phillies also. Sure they can miss the playoffs altogether but a ton of opportunities and options for the Cubs…not just one wild card spot.
One thing to note though…at this point they don’t hold the tiebreaker with the Phillies or Marlins for sure and are still lacking with the Brewers or Reds (need 3 of 4 at Cincy coming up to snag it away). Tiebreaker can very possibly come into play.
The Cubs were the third best team in the 2nd half last year while playing with almost the worst collection of 40 man cast offs and losers I’ve ever seen assembled. Some key young pitching and decent defense went a long way. With this years excellent team in the field, Top notch defense and even better pitching I see no reason it can’t be done again. To say they won’t make the playoffs at this point is just idiotic. They have just as good a chance as anyone. Are they going to the WS? Probably not. Is it a very worthwhile experience for the team to go out winning? Absolutely.
You think they should quit while they are 0.5 games out, and playing better than almost anyone else in baseball?
mlbnyfan… Keeping Bellinger was a shot in the arm for this team and Stroman, in a bad streak, would’ve got them nothing. And even if you’re a hater, saying they’re not making playoffs at this point, is just dumb.
It’s not dumb rondon….it’s trolling. I always wonder why teams pay so much money for executives to work and make decisions when there are guys like mlbnyyfan doling out expertise for free.
But coming from someone with nyy in his name he may know a little bit about not making the playoffs this year.
Mlbnyyfan is trolling us because the Yankees fans wanted him. However, they had no players to offer in return for the 5th best farm system. If he doesn’t resign we get an “A” stipulation free agent which will be a sandwich 1st round pick and a fourth. Also, they call up PCA to play centerfield. He was only player in the minors with an 80 defensive grade, TY Mets!
mlbnyyfan should HAVE stayed awake in English classes, maybe then he might HAVE sounded less stupid when he said the Cubs won’t make the playoffs this season. He probably thinks maybe if the Cubs could HAVE traded Bellinger to his beloved sorry ass Yankees, they wouldn’t be IN LAST PLACE. But I doubt that would HAVE helped the Yankees. They’re a lot worse than the Cubs.
Arguably the turning point for the whole Cubs season was when Bellinger got injured and Tauchman was brought up. Not only did Tauchman excel, When Bellinger came back they proved to be an awesome double punch against RH pitching. That’s when the Cubs started pounding out runs.
I don’t back Jed Hoyer too often but in this case he made the right move by not selling. The Cubs were gaining some ground and playing good baseball. They play in a so,so division. Nobody really should scare anybody in the NL Central. It’s winnable for the Cubs. And once you get in anything can happen.
Now, this may be costly as you risk the chance of not making the post season and loosing Bellinger and Stroman for nothing in return. But it’s a chance he had to take. No doubt money talks. But the desire not to sell and give up on the season may also help with keeping Bellinger and other potential free agents available this off season.
Boras will try and kill whatever feelings Bellinger has about the Cubs in favor of the most $$$. But this is a very unique season for him. He was always on a playoff bound team in LA. This is his first experience being on an underdog team that no one gave any chance of making the playoffs early on. And it’s the team that gave him the chance to restart his career.. and in front of an incredible fan base in an historic stadium. I think even Boras can’t make him believe that doesn’t mean something. He may just end up being in Chicago again next year.
I mean that’s the reason why Bellinger hired Boras to represent him. He got a fat one-year pillow contract and has made good on it for the Cubs. Winter will be the time for Boras to do his job again. Belli will stay a Cub if they offer him the most money and nobody should be surprised if it doesn’t happen. It’s business.
Not many teams were willing to give Bellinger a chance so it might play into his decision, assuming the Cubs offer the money. I don’t think it has to be the “most money” but has to be competitive and the Cubs have a slight advantage given that they’ll offer him a QO so that loss of a pick will have some value to a team.
From what I hear and read in the local Chicago sports media over the years. Jed Hoyer and his front office have a positive relationship with Scott Boras. This positive relationship goes back further when Theo Epstein ran the Cubs. That may be encouraging. Some MLB front offices have an unfavorable relationship. Regardless of that. Money talks. No matter who signs Bellinger. The Cubs, Yankees…..Safe to say it will be an overpay.
YankeesBleacherCreature… Don’t get me wrong. I don’t think the Cubs could expect any kind of discount. They’d have to pay competetively. But if the deals are close, he might stay. There was a great article in The Athletic (by Ken Rosenthal) that detailed how Swanson, Gomes and others convinced Hoyer to not sell at the deadline. Apparently, Bellinger was part of that veteran group as well. It’s a pretty cool story.
Anybody who says the cubs aren’t getting in the playoffs haven’t looked at their schedule or haven’t watched them play, Not saying they are a World Series team but I don’t think teams will look forward to facing them in a short series with that deep lineup and Steele and Stroman starting.
@Rondon. I’m not a hater I just think Marlins and Phillies are better and the last spot up for grabs.
Phillies yes, but the Marlins are floundering and their Py W/L is 10.5 games worse than the Cubs. I can’t speak to SD, or Cincy, but I’d bet real money they pass Miami.
mlbnyfan… Thanks for clarifying. It’s hard to tell cause some are… You may well be right. I like that the Cubs are better than anyone thought they’d be and that it makes for a wilder ride down the stretch!
Holding on to Bellinger and Stroman to make a run this year is completely defensible. However, there is some risk because they will likely lose Stroman in the offseason, and I’m not sure I would offer Bellinger long term money.
Bellinger, in particular, would have brought a nice return.
But I’m in the rare position of hoping this all works out for the Cubs. I hope they win the Series. A World Series title for a team from this year’s NL Central would be pure baseball legend.
Yeah, seems like a game of hot potato when it comes to the NL Division. At least 4 different teams have held onto first place.
Stroman will only “likely” opt-out if he starts pitching like he did earlier in the year. Otherwise exercising his option is the equivalent of a pillow contract for next year.
Even if doesn’t throw another pitch this season, he’ll get more future guaranteed money in the open market than the $21MM he could earn in ’24. With no Q.O. qualification, it’s 99%+ likely he’ll opt-out if he doesn’t sign an extension.
Perhaps they should have just given them to the Yankees for free. Hoyer was pressured by Dansby Swanson not to trade them in order to compete for a playoff spot and go back to the Cubs winning ways. I’m hoping it catches Ohtani’s attention!
Good luck with that.
Ohtani’s attention won’t go past the West Coast. Know the player and what is important to him.
When Ohtani was posted, the Cubs were the only non-“west coast” team that he met with (the others being Angels, Rangers, Dodgers, Mariners, Giants, and Padres).
It’s not an outlandish suggestion., if unlikely.
Best case is winning a playoff series. Bellinger will get a Kris Bryant contract. Will either be a great deal for the signing team or a loss if he gets hurt again. Obviously he wasn’t healthy after the shoulder injury until this year. Figure 7/175
@RJ- boras is gonna get Bellinger way more than Bryant got. Cody is 2 years younger going into free agency and has proven he’s a much better hitter, and even a better defender at both positions he plays. Yes he does need to stay healthy, but I’d bet the next 5-7 years of Bellinger’s career will be better than the 5-7 years of KB’s since he signed his free agent contract. I’m thinking it’s gonna take at least $210m/6yrs to sign Bellinger and that’s probably gonna include an opt out after years 2 and 3. But if I were Hoyer I’d be happy to sign Bellinger to that kind of contract. IMO Bellinger is probably the best hitter the Cubs have had on their roster since Derrick Lee.