As the clock runs out on the 2023 season, we take a look at the Big Hype Prospects who have advanced their hype-levels to all new… levels.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Junior Caminero, 20, SS/3B, TBR (MLB)
(AA) 351 PA, 20 HR, 3 SB, .309/373/.548
The will they/won’t they dance with Caminero finally resolved. Despite foregoing a promotion to Triple-A, the Rays saw fit to inject an offensive weapon into their postseason repertoire. Part of me wonders how much gamesmanship went into leaving Caminero at Double-A, as if the Rays could convince their playoff rivals he wouldn’t be promoted, maybe they would scout him less? A player of his age and profile undoubtedly has exploitable weaknesses, so the deeper the Rays can get into the postseason before those weaknesses are discovered, the better. Caminero batted fifth in his first two MLB games, going 2-for-9 with a walk and producing impressive exit velocities on six batted balls. While small sample caveats apply, the beauty of exit velocity is instant gratification. A 112-mph EV immediately validates a hitter as possessing impressive pop. All the other stats, well, they need more time to mature into larger samples.
Wyatt Langford, 21, OF, TEX (AAA)
(4 levels) 200 PA, 10 HR, 12 SB, .360/.480/.677
With Caminero up, Langford is the next future superstar on the cusp of promotion. We discussed him last week prior to his promotion to Triple-A. Since then, he’s batted .368/.538/.526 in 26 plate appearances with MLB-level exit velocities. Round Rock has a three-game series remaining for the PCL Championship, and I suspect we’ll see Langford join the Rangers upon the conclusion of the series. Where he fits on the roster is less certain. Leody Taveras is a quality defender with a league-average bat, and Evan Carter has performed well in limited action. Langford likely represents a net upgrade on both outfielders, but it can be tough to justify changing something that’s working well. Now might be the wrong moment to mess with team chemistry.
Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(4 levels) 581 PA, 12 HR, 24 SB, .323/.442/.499
Like Langford, the Norfolk Tides have a championship series over the next three days. If Holliday is summoned to the Majors, it will likely follow these games. He’s had a longer stint in Triple-A, and after a slow start, he’s up to .267/.396/.400 in 91 plate appearances. His average quality of contact is better than a typical Major Leaguer, but his top-end EVs are poor. That’s no cause for concern. Holliday is a teenager. If anything, it might indicate that the Orioles are best served to play it slow rather than forcing an awkward situation with a last-minute promotion. Holliday might represent a modest upgrade over Adam Frazier and Jordan Westburg at second base. He certainly improves upon seldom-used benchman Ryan McKenna. Whether that’s sufficient cause for a promotion is a tough question to answer.
Evan Carter, 21, OF, TEX (MLB)
(CPX/AA/AAA) 513 PA, 12 HR, 25 SB, .288/.413/.450
Though he is deservedly a Top 10 prospect, Carter profiles differently than most of the top names. He’s one of the surest things in the minors. True stardom might be out of his grasp, especially in this rich era of uber-prospects. Then again, no era of baseball has offered players such tangible opportunity to transform their game. The high-floor, low-ceiling expectation is reinforced by a profile, build, and approach that screams “Brandon Nimmo clone.” Nimmo, of course, recently signed a nine-figure deal entering his age-30 season, hence everyone’s comfort ranking Carter highly. Still, nobody expects Nimmo to carry the Mets. He’s a rich man’s complementary piece. Carter seems destined for a similar role.
Carter is off to a hot start in the Majors. Improbably, he’s hit four home runs in 54 plate appearances as part of a .318/.426/.705 batting line. The dingers, in addition to a .400 BABIP, have served to carry his offensive line beyond even the wildest expectations. Look under the hood, and you’ll see Carter produces only modest quality of contact. He has a knack for barreling the ball, but those barrels aren’t impactful. Like Holliday, this is more of a “now” problem than a future concern. He’ll develop more pop as he ages.
Noelvi Marte, 21, 3B/SS, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 399 PA, 11 HR, 18 SB, .279/.358/.454
There are no questions about Marte’s exit velocities. They’re among the best in the game. Alas, a ball smashed into the ground is still a ground ball. He’s running a predictably high BABIP as the result of his worm murdering. He’s not producing any power numbers despite hitting the ball powerfully. We have every reason to anticipate growth from Marte in the coming years. What we’re seeing now is a fantastic platform for a quality Major Leaguer. At present, he’s roughly a replacement-level performer. He’s batting .293/.350/.380 (96 wRC+) in 100 plate appearances. If he can learn to generate any lift whatsoever, he’ll quickly morph into a dangerous hitter.
Three More
Orion Kerkering, PHI (22): Arguably the top pure relief prospect in the minors (excluding those being developed as starters), Kerkering features triple-digit gas. He lives off a filth-monster slider. After starting the season in Low-A, the right-hander made his big league debut on Sunday. He seems destined for high-leverage postseason innings.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN (23): Since he has expended his rookie eligibility, this will be Encarnacion-Strand’s last appearance in this column. After an unimpressive August, CES has caught fire in September. Over the last 20 days, he’s batting .378/.429/.778 with six home runs in 49 plate appearances. Volatility will likely always be a part of his game.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC (21): Crow-Armstrong drew a trio of starts shortly after his promotion. He looked overmatched and has since been reduced to a pinch runner/defensive replacement role. I fully expect PCA to fill this same role in the postseason – assuming the Cubs hang onto a Wild Card slot.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Os fans can wait for Jackson – there’s no way he takes playoff ABs from fellow lefty Frazier. That will keep til next year.
You also can’t replace a right handed hitting outfielder in McKenna with a lefty middle infielder. McKenna gets optioned when Mountcastle comes back.
Kjerstadt is the newcomer that will get playoff exposure. He is all about EV …
Jackson’s not coming up unless one of the infielders goes down. Even if that happened, I’m not sure he’d be ahead of Joey Ortiz right now. Let him be. He’s advanced far further than expected.
He’ll be apart of the 2024 squad very early.
I don’t think they bring Jackson up in 2023. Kjerstad may as well play in the postseason, he has nothing to gain with another minute in AAA. But he plays where the team has a lot of depth already.
There’s a chance Jackson breaks camp next spring with the club and forces a decision but I think there’s a good chance that he’s sent to AAA for just enough seasoning for another year of service time. Jackson will be able to hit MLB pitching in 2024, maybe not for power but remember when Machado came up at 19 it took a year or two for his power to start showing up.
Playoffs: Hicks being effective has made Rich Becker…er….McKenna next to useless and may as well leave him off. I would also leave Mateo off, though the Orioles won’t, despite Mateo hitting .177 since May 1. Gunnar’s defense at SS has caught up to Mateo and Urias is just as good a defender. If Mateo is on the roster it better be only as a pinch runner/late inning defensive replacement when up by a few. Don’t give him a bat especially if you need runs. Since Frazier bats LH I think he’s got to stay although just like I’ve been all season I’m not excited about a guy with sub .300 OBP when the offense needs guys to get on base.
Is kjerstead playoff eligible?
He didn’t go on the 40-man until mid-September, after the Aug.31 cutoff for postseason eligibility. So as I understand it he could only appear in the playoffs as an injury replacement: mlb.com/glossary/transactions/postseason-roster-ru…
Yes he can play in the postseason. There are options for the Os if they choose to include him on the postseason roster. Question is who’s place would he take. Kjerstad Westburg and Urias, one of them will be left off. Mateo, Frazier, McCann and Hicks will all make it. Mounty will be back so he’s in Mckenna out. Somebody on the current roster gets left off
Would need to be an injury replacement, as I mentioned above and is confirmed here: birdswatcher.com/posts/3-orioles-players-who-have-…
No chance Urias gets taken off the postseason roster for a 19 year old. He’s a magician with the glove. Jackson is the future but that ain’t tomorrow.
Totally fine with this evaluation of Carter, he’s going to be a high contact guy who occasionally smokes one. But he runs really well and looks like a taylor made leadoff man.
Are you? High floor is fine. Above average centerfield and a .270/.370/.480 line is possible, which I think is a top 5 CF. Not saying it’s a lock. But what a pluck in the draft, mlb network had no idea who he was
For sure. I am not used to the Rangers drafting that shrewdly, I guess a blind squirriel finds a nut once in awhile.
That “college Mike Trout” label may actually be an understatement for White Wyatt Langford (or, he could be Brandon Wood 2.0). I’m excited to let the future play out!
Holliday and langford are Kind of a tricky decision next year.
Until a couple years ago you would have just called him up 2 weeks into the season but the prospect Promotion Initiative makes it though now.
Not just because a ROY or an mvp top 3 finish in the first 3 years gives you an extra pick and 2 mil of Bonus money but also because you risk that you call them up later and they still win RoY or mvp finish later and then get the full Service time year anyway.
I feel holliday and langford are so good that the risk is too high, you have to either call them up right away or wait till June to make sure they don’t win RoY.
Langford vs holliday could be an exciting RoY race next year. Holliday probably is a better hitter but langford probably has more power (right now, at age 19 holliday could add muscle mass of course). Holliday has the positional advantage too.
I see Langford as a pretty easy choice to make the OD roster (or 15 days in if they’re so inclined). It does make for a crowded outfield in Texas since Taveras is their best defensive CF and still has growth potential as a hitter.
Holliday’s only trickier because of his age. He projects as closer to a league-average player next year which they could mimic for a while with existing players.on the roster. There are a number of justifiable ways to approach his inevitable promotion.
I think the rangers will do a few trades.they can’t count on much from degrom next year as he returns from tj so they need a starter and I would say they need at least 2 relievers.
Then they can decide whether they want from their ML roster or from the minors.
Obviously after carter and langford graduated the farm system will he pretty bad but they have some excess guys that don’t have room like for example justin foscue or they trade one of the extra outfielders that gets pushed out by carter and langford.
The rangers could have an absolute monster lineup next year that could rival the best dodgers and astros lineup of the last decade but pitching is still a little suspect relying a lot on older, injury prone guys.
But that lineup just is very dangerous with no holes.
C heim
1b lowe
2b semien
Ss seager
3b jung
Lf langford
Cf carter
Rf Garcia
Dh Garver or maybe foscue
Of course there is no guarantee that langford and carter shove right away and semien might show signs of age but if everything goes right this lineup could do a lot of damage. But will the pitching hold up?
I think they did a great job developing hitters under Donnie Ecker but pitching development hasn’t worked well and their big investments in drafting pitching (Leiter,rocker) hasn’t paid off so far
There was no volatility in Encarnacion-Strands bat in Louisville, so why the assumption it’ll be that way in the show? This guy can hit. The ball just jumps off his bat, and has a very solid sound to it. He’s a kid facing big league pitching for the first time for crying out loud…
People will balk at this, but Marte is actually a better shortstop than EDLC as we have seen from his times there. So is McLain for that matter, but he is equally a good fielder at second. Now, will EDLC’s ego accept a move to third, where he seemed to be a better fielder early on?
As for CES, the kid can flat hit for power and average, it appears. He just needed some big league experience before the bat started to show, and it is now.
Good Call! Next year should see EDLC at 3rd, Marte at SS, McClain at 2nd and CES at 1st. However, Bell constantly moves players around and plays the l/R approach too often, it is hard to say who will play and where.
He lives off a high BABIP and has a high K rate. Both of which he had in the minors but with the higher caliber defense and pitching in the majors he will likely have periods where the balls aren’t falling. No reason to believe he won’t be a productive hitter but volatility could be expected.
^Basically this. His quality of contact is great, but he’s whiff-prone and has below-average discipline. He’ll get in ruts where he’s biting at pitches he can’t damage or else he’ll have some random periods of poor luck.
It’s a profile thing. There are a bunch of hitters around the league with these traits. They’re all volatile.
That is true, however this year in AAA was the first time he has shown good plate discipline. His k/bb rate was very good this year in AAA at 2/1 which is a great sign but at the levels before he usually was 3 to 1 or even 4 to 1.
It could be real improvement however there are also indications that K rates are lower and walk rates are higher this year in AAA due to the experiments with ABS and how it is set up.
I’m not worried about his mlb k to bb rate so far (almost 5 to 1) as he just leans to adjust to the big leagues but he still might be a 3 to 1 k to bb rate guy going forward. That would be still palatable though at his power, if he can be like 7/23 on bb/k he could hit 250 with 30 Homers.
However there also is a scenario where he is more of a 4 to 1 k to bb guy which would make him more of an all or nothing slugger.
“[Holliday] certainly improves upon seldom-used benchman Ryan McKenna.”
Tell me you don’t know how the Orioles utilize their players without coming right out and saying “I know nothing about the Orioles.” This organization would never bring up one player at an infield position because they don’t use a 5th outfielder that often. McKenna’s role is only connected to Holliday in that the same team pays them to play ball. Brandon Hyde has been masterful at how he switches and swaps players in and out of the lineup to maximize what the team on the field does. Holliday’s presence on the roster would only happen because the team loses a starter to injury — Frazier, Westburg or Urias — it would not happen just to boost what the bench was capable of. If that were the case Mateo could have disappeared months ago when his OBP rivaled his weight.
You obviously didn’t read the next sentence. What Brad said is a fact – McKenna hasn’t had a PA in 3 weeks, ergo Holliday wouldn’t provide less at the plate. That doesn’t mean they will promote him, but that’s why Brad said that too.
If Hicks gets hurt again, it will be McKenna getting most of his ABs vs. lefties. McKenna doesn’t bring much – righty batter who hits lefties well, good speed on the bases, good defense … and a propensity for bone-headed plays – but he does have MLB experience and serves a couple niches. Holliday does not have any place on this season’s club, and that’s OK.
R.I.P. Brooks Robinson