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Ke’Bryan Hayes Lifting Baseballs, Self

By Darragh McDonald | September 15, 2023 at 1:37pm CDT

Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes has been a useful player in his career, despite his offense.

Coming into 2023, he had hit just 18 home runs in 256 games. His 8.4% walk rate was close to average, but he wasn’t producing enough power to really be valuable at the plate. His .261/.326/.386 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 95, indicating he was 5% below league average offensively overall. Subtract his blazing hot 2020 debut and you’re left with a line of .249/.315/.356 over 2021 and 2022 for a wRC+ of just 86. But he stole 30 bases in the 2020-2022 stretch and got excellent defensive grades across the board. Despite the slightly subpar offense, he was worth 6.6 wins above replacement in that time.

Although he was still a solid contributor prior to this year, there were reasons to believe he was capable of more. Last year, his average exit velocity was in the 85th percentile among qualified hitters, per Statcast, with his hard hit rate 84th. The reason his raw skills weren’t translating into results was largely due to pounding the ball into the ground. Hayes had a 52% ground ball rate over 2020-2022, well beyond league average, which has usually been around 42 or 43% in recent seasons.

The Pirates clearly had faith that he could tap into something more, as they signed him to an eight-year, $70MM extension going into the 2022 campaign, the largest contract in franchise history at that time.

Here in 2023, Hayes has seemingly taken some steps forward with the ground ball issue. His grounder rate is down to 42.3%, which is just barely better than the 42.5% league average this year but almost a 10-point improvement over his previous work. Getting under the ball more has naturally led to improved power output. He already has 13 homers this year in 111 games, a far better pace than the 18 he hit in 256 games prior to 2023.

The results are even better if we focus just on the second half. Hayes went on the injured list twice this summer due to back issues. Since being activated on August 1, he’s taken 159 trips to the plate and is hitting .297/.342/.552 for a wRC+ of 133. He has a 40.2% ground ball rate in that time and eight of his 13 homers have been hit in that stretch as well.

That is a very small sample of less than two months, but it has to be incredibly encouraging for Hayes and the Pirates. They don’t spend a lot of money, which means that it’s important for them to get value out of the money that they do spend. Hayes has a solid floor with his speed and defense, but becoming an above-average hitter could make him into a superstar. His offense on the season as a whole is still just shy of league average, wRC+ of 98, but he’s been worth 2.7 fWAR thanks to the speed and defense. If he can maintain even a small amount of his recent offensive surge, he would push that even farther next year. He’s still just 26 years old and could still be tapping into his potential, with six more guaranteed years remaining on his deal, along with a club option for 2030.

The Pirates still have a tall hill to climb in order to return to contention. The Brewers are perennial contenders. The Reds are loaded with young talent. The Cubs are in strong position. The Cardinals are sure to be aggressive in moving past this down year. The Bucs still have plenty of questions about their middle infield and pitching staff, but they should be able to count on solid production from the hot corner for the rest of the decade, and maybe even more.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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MLBTR Originals Pittsburgh Pirates Ke'Bryan Hayes

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45 Comments

  1. et123123

    2 years ago

    I don’t like this headline. Lol

    19
    Reply
    • YourDreamGM

      2 years ago

      Ke’Bryan Hayes Lifting Baseballs, Self. I don’t get the self part. But lifting baseballs got my attention. Thought it was some new workout that’s better than lifting weights or something.

      5
      Reply
      • Hemlock

        2 years ago

        I expected to see him arrested for lifting baseballs.

        6
        Reply
        • Hemlock

          2 years ago

          But stealing his self, that got me to read the story.

          I am disappointed.

          Click bait headlines are the worst!

          10
          Reply
        • YourDreamGM

          2 years ago

          Thought he could get away with it but Bob Nutting personally counts every baseball each day.

          7
          Reply
      • TheMan 3

        2 years ago

        A He’s lifting himself into a different and more powerful hitter is how I took the headline

        1
        Reply
    • Paleobros

      2 years ago

      I love this headline, newspaper style

      4
      Reply
    • Dock_Elvis

      2 years ago

      Came here to comment similar and see if it was just me lol

      Reply
  2. vtadave

    2 years ago

    “Ke’Bryan Hayes Lifting Baseballs, Self” – seems like an odd headline

    5
    Reply
  3. BlueSkies_LA

    2 years ago

    One of the more, um, unusual story titles we’ve seen here.

    2
    Reply
    • YourDreamGM

      2 years ago

      Excellent click bait. Much more interesting than Ke’Bryan Hayes grounder rate is down to 42.3%, which is just barely better than the 42.5% league average.

      4
      Reply
      • BlueSkies_LA

        2 years ago

        Well it’s nice to know he can still lift his… oh, never mind!

        1
        Reply
  4. drasco036

    2 years ago

    I give this article a wRC+ of 75, indicating it’s 25% below site average.

    15
    Reply
    • Hemlock

      2 years ago

      Joey Wiemer (410 AB) has a wRC+ of 75. Tied with 5 others but he has the most at bats of the six players.

      So, you are reading Joey Wiemer.

      3
      Reply
    • pohle

      2 years ago

      darragh reached with the headline to start, i heard he smoked a blunt after writing this and thought it was good idea cause he was convinced he was a genius

      3
      Reply
  5. Ontopofla

    2 years ago

    Dunno about the title. But the dude can pick it as well as anyone ever at third. Add in some bat, and things could get really, really good.

    2
    Reply
  6. SouthernBuc

    2 years ago

    While I think at times writers can over state positives, as a Pirate fan I think they undersold Hayes defense. Both the eye test and basically every defensive metric puts him at an elite level as a defender.(overall – not just in comparing to third basemen). That doesn’t really change the observations of the article that his hitting has been better, but I believe it did understate his value. Nit picking at its best – I am guilty.

    3
    Reply
  7. AllAboutBaseball

    2 years ago

    I didn’t even read the article I went straight to the comments

    9
    Reply
  8. Slider_withcheese

    2 years ago

    An 8 year extension in Pirate Speak is 2 in Pittsburgh and 6 elsewhere.

    4
    Reply
    • YourDreamGM

      2 years ago

      Which players did they trade with 6 years remaining on contract?

      7
      Reply
      • SouthernBuc

        2 years ago

        Wanted to double thumbs up YourDreamGM,. I don’t mind when Pirate spending overall is challenged but hate lazy takes that are just not factual.

        6
        Reply
        • YourDreamGM

          2 years ago

          Pirates don’t give free agent $ extensions and awful opt outs. Unless a serious injury happens they will gladly pay Hayes and enjoy the massive surplus of production he provides until a year or two left on his deal and they trade him for nice return of prospects.

          2
          Reply
        • Slider_withcheese

          2 years ago

          They’ll trade away those prospects too. Seems to be a good strategy. Three playoff appearances in thirty years (two of which were one and done WCs) is the way to go. Countless high draft picks, countless prospects, and for thirty years, an average of 20+ games out of first. The worst run franchise in MLB.

          4
          Reply
        • YourDreamGM

          2 years ago

          Except they haven’t used that strategy for 30 years. Haven’t had even somewhat competitive ownership and management for 30 years. Bob Nutting as cheap as he is was an upgrade in ownership. Huntington was light years better than previous gm. It’s only now they have a gm who can possibly be good enough for them to sustain winning. He has been rebuilding. 2024 is year #1.

          2
          Reply
        • TheMan 3

          2 years ago

          Again Slider without Facts, you are wrong.

          2023 will actually be rebuild year under the current GM number 4.

          Reply
        • PiratesPundit51

          2 years ago

          The worst run franchise in baseball would be one that perpetually loses money when they have a chance to turn a profit, and the Pirates are decidedly not that.

          My answer to the worst-run franchise is the New York Mets, who have massively overspent to enjoy roughly the same record as a team who spent nearly $300 million less than they did. Last championship was well over a billion in payroll ago, in 1986. Ownership went bankrupt over Bernie Madoff.

          The Pirates live within what their market provides, which is relative mediocrity, with many more peaks than valleys. The fact that they managed a winning record in the midst of baseball’s economics in the past decade is a testament to being well-run, not the opposite.

          1
          Reply
    • TheMan 3

      2 years ago

      I can always count on Slider without Brains to offer his worthless opinion on any baseball subject

      3
      Reply
      • YourDreamGM

        2 years ago

        In Europe he is called Royale without brains.

        5
        Reply
        • TheMan 3

          2 years ago

          Pulp Fiction is a great movie

          2
          Reply
    • TheMan 3

      2 years ago

      A maroon in simple terms is using a name like Slider without brains
      Do you conduct any research before posting your ridiculous comments?

      Reply
  9. 30 Parks

    2 years ago

    I had to read the headline as if I was on Wheel of Fortune. “Ke’Bryan. Hayes. Lifting. Baseballs. Self.”

    Reply
  10. mlb1225

    2 years ago

    Very fun to watch what he’s done this year. Started to heat up in June, but really had everything come together in the second half.

    5
    Reply
  11. Old York

    2 years ago

    Where are you getting the wRC+ data? Fangraphs has his number at 98, which is pretty much on par with the league average. But even if it’s 95, again, 5% below is not the end of the world. Also, Fangraphs has his BB% at 5.8% and K% of 19.8%.

    fangraphs.com/players/kebryan-hayes/18577/stats?po…

    What am I missing?

    3
    Reply
    • joew

      2 years ago

      Think there is some confusion on the time frames? His second half is much better but his K and BB% haven’t changed a lot.

      1
      Reply
  12. Mercenary.Freddie.Freeman

    2 years ago

    @hemlock. Never even heard of Joey wiemer so I looked him up. Appears I wasn’t missing anything. Just makes me realize even more the last thing mlb needs is more teams when the talent is this diluted already.

    1
    Reply
    • Hemlock

      2 years ago

      Me neither. Joey Wiemer? I thought Fangraphs was pulling a bad Oscar Mayer joke. I didn’t even know he was born yet let alone playing baseball. I have learned my one thing for the day so that’s it for me today.

      1
      Reply
      • Swordless Mimetown

        2 years ago

        I don’t think Wiemer’s existence is an indication of a diluted talent talent pool in MLB. He’s a rookie; he’s actually quite a good defender; power guy who whiffs too much, but has enough upside to have a career as a 4th OF. Players like him have always been around.

        4
        Reply
  13. Reynaldo

    2 years ago

    Please prefix these Op Ed articles with “Player Spotlights” or something. Seeing headlines such are “Triston Casas Has Arrived” and “Does The Astros Have An Outfield Surplus” are jarring to stumble upon amidst transactional news updates.

    1
    Reply
    • CptJack

      2 years ago

      Not to mention these player profiles, which are of guys who aren’t even free agents to be or trade candidates I might add, are just mediocre as all get out. All they are are just numbers from Statcast and Baseball Reference or Fangraphs. If you want the real analysis, go to Fangraphs. Not stuff that’s so player-friendly.

      2
      Reply
      • TheMan 3

        2 years ago

        This site hasn’t focused solely on potential free agents, trades or waivers in quite awhile, CptJack
        Maybe pay stricter attention

        Reply
      • But I Do

        2 years ago

        Exactly, CptJack! MLBTR needs to stay in its lane and do transactional updates, as Reynaldo suggests.

        Glad other people are finally seeing this.

        Reply
  14. baked mcbride

    2 years ago

    baked mcbride, lifting baseballs, wait, what?

    Reply
  15. CptJack

    2 years ago

    Wow, how much did Hayes’ agent pay MLBTR to write this puff piece?

    4
    Reply
  16. User 1855579867

    2 years ago

    For the money I will take Hayes over Devers – again, taking into consideration money and defense.

    2
    Reply
  17. But I Do

    2 years ago

    McDonald is getting roasted for this article and it’s deserved

    1
    Reply

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