The Cubs are facing some uncertainty in their rotation early this offseason, as veteran right-handers Kyle Hendricks and Marcus Stroman both have contracts featuring options for the 2024 campaign. The club holds a $16MM team option on Hendricks that features a $1.5MM buyout, while Stroman can opt out of the final year of his contract with Chicago, leaving $21MM on the table to return to the open market. Though option decisions aren’t due until five days after the World Series concludes, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic writes that both Hendricks and Stroman are “expected” to remain with the club in 2024.
Picking up Hendricks’s club option seems to be something of a no-brainer for the Cubs, given how well he pitched last year. After a shoulder injury wiped out most of the soft-tossing righty’s 2022 season and the beginning of his 2023, Hendricks rebounded to make 24 starts for the Cubs, pitching to a 3.74 ERA and 3.81 FIP in 137 innings of work. In a market where even bounce back starters can get two-year guarantees in the range of $12.5MM (as the likes of Sean Manaea, Andrew Heaney, and Ross Stripling did last offseason), a $14.5MM decision for one year of Hendricks is a sensible investment.
Stroman’s option decision, on the other hand, is more complicated. Multi-year offers that would beat Stroman’s $21MM total salary for 2024 will surely be available to the right-hander this offseason if he decides to test the open market. While he appeared to be a good bet to approach or perhaps even beat the yearly salary offered by his option on the open market early in the season, when he was dominating for the Cubs to the tune of a 2.28 ERA across his first 16 starts of the season, he figures to be a long-shot to receive a comparable AAV this offseason after battling injuries and ineffectiveness in the second half, with an 8.29 ERA over his final 38 innings of work this year.
If both players do remain in Chicago with their options exercised, that will eat up a combined $37MM in payroll space for the club this offseason. As noted by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes in the Cubs installment of our Offseason Outlook series, Stroman and Hendricks returning to Chicago figures to push the club’s commitments well over $200MM for luxury tax purposes, leaving little room for the Cubs to maneuver this offseason without exceeding the first tax threshold, which will sit at $237MM this offseason.
More from around MLB’s central divisions:
- The Cardinals were recently reported to have interest in bringing longtime catcher Yadier Molina back into the fold just one season after his retirement, this time as a member of the coaching staff. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat provided more details on the situation this morning, indicating that Molina reportedly has interest in acting as the club’s bench coach. As Jones notes, the contract status of current bench coach Joe McEwing is unclear, though he adds that it’s believed the Cardinals at least hold an option on his services for 2024. Jones also notes the difficult situation that Molina’s presence as bench coach could create for manager Oli Marmol; Marmol is entering the final year of his contract with the club next season and would likely face greater pressure in 2024 with a player of Molina’s status within the organization acting as his number two, particularly after Molina got his feet wet in a managerial role as skipper of team Puerto Rico during the World Baseball Classic earlier this year.
- The Royals lost a longtime member of their front office yesterday, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that assistant GM for baseball administration Jin Wong is departing the organization. Wong, who per Rosenthal is leaving Kansas City “of his own accord,” had been in the organization for 24 years. MLB.com’s Anne Rogers relays that Wong played key roles in contract negotiations for key players in the organization’s recent history, including Salvador Perez and Lorenzo Cain, with much of his role being dealing with Kansas City’s budget and payroll management.
The majority of the Cardinals fan base wants Marmol fired.
You can only speak for yourself.
Not many fans of teams that finish in last place want their manager retained. So that being said I hope they keep him and they repeat this year’s performance
Not many fans of teams that finish in second place, or first place even, want their manager retained for that matter.
The smart ones do anyway.
Old guy: Brilliant! That could apply to other teams like the White Sox, who were so impressed by Grifol’s 101-loss season to see him as the man to lead a rebuild.
Stroman’s second half meltdown may have some effect on his market and there may not be as many multi-year deals that eclipse his option as some might think.
I wonder how much of that was due to possible injury vs regression to the mean
He fractured a rib and was on the IL for half of August and September. He did not pitch at all in August. He was not good at all in July, either.
Any team that were to consider signing him should have concerns over what pitcher they’re getting.
Stroman would certainly get more than 21 million total on a contract. I could easily see him getting 3/45 with performance escalators.
The thing is however, Stroman, at least on the surface, love pitching for the Cubs. Maybe when the Cubs Dfa’d Barnhart, his opinion changed a little but by all accounts he loves the city and the fans.
I think a big part of his decision will be if Hoyer plans on trading him if he exercises his option. Being at the mercy of the “best offer” vs being in control of where you are going would definitely be a shove.
Hendricks has zero control if the Cubs pick up his option or not, the question is do you pick up his option and trade him or keep him?
Hoyer could force Stroman’s hand by telling him he’ll be traded if he opts in. It wouldn’t even matter if they got anything back. Hendricks is a different story. I have a feeling if the Cubs pick up his option he won’t be traded. They’ll keep him. Wouldn’t make me totally happy. Hendricks value as a future Pitching Coordinator or even Coach if he’s so inclined would make me happier. If Breslow leaves they could think about that.
The money saved on Hendricks and Stroman should be enough to get Hoskins and Yammamoto. I have no idea if the Phillies want to keep Hoskins or not, But Hoyer should be first in line. Mervis could play most of the innings in the spring while Hoskins rehabs his knee totally. and DH’s to get some AB’s. A 1B duo of Hoskins and Mervis is much more exciting to me than the crap show of last year of Mancini and Hosmer. I wonder how many games that decision cost the Cubs early last year when you finish 2 games out of the playoffs? I hope Swanson is in Hoyers ear about THAT if he’s really in his ear about half of the stuff I’m hearing about.
Mike, how about just adding Yamamoto to what they have. Take Heyward’s (and unfortunately Belli’s) money and get Yamamoto and Hoskins if he’s your flavor of the week.
Then you have Stroman, Hendricks, Yamamoto and Hoskins with no added payroll.
Please rewind exactly one year ago and the prevailing thought was that the Cubs had all kinds of pitching option to go along with Stroman, Hendricks and Steele (not knowing that Steele would be anywhere near as good as he was). Let’s see–at this point last year the Cubs were picking from Wesneski, Assad, Sampson, Thompson, and maybe even Kilian. Hey, there are EIGHT pitchers right there…..and they then signed Taillon! Jackpot!
Guess what? Wesneski, Sampson, Thompson, Kilian—all major flops. Assad—good last two months—but—terrible pitching in April is just a detrimental as bad outings in July–September when you miss by two games.
Keep Stro. Keep Kyle. Hope that Steele pitches AT LEAST as a #2. Pray that Taillon is better than Stro and Kyle (newsflash–he wasn’t this year)–sign a guy.
I know the retort is that they have Wicks and Horton and Assad will continue to get better and Kilian will progress, etc….but that’s just us sitting here EXACTLY where we were last year with the list of names that ending up not meeting expectations.
They CANNOT go into December with only Steele and Taillon. I hope Wicks and Horton are as good as advertised–but they have combined pitched what, 5 or 6 games—with Horton still probably a year away.
You cannot win in baseball, over 162 games, with one reliable pitcher.
One of the most overlooked facets of 2016 was that they Cubs 4th and 5th starters with Lackey and Hammel. By far the best in baseball as 4-5 combo. What you are proposing is that the Cubs top three would be Steele, Yamamoto and Taillon. Who would be your 4-5.???
Yammamoto can’t be passed on. Maybe they don’t get him, But his Bonafides can’t be overlooked. He’s only 26, One of the best if not the best P’s in Japan and most of all unlike any other starters won’t cost draft pick compensation. The money he’s going to get paid has to be saved somewhere. you keep talking about Stroman and Hendricks like they’re relevant. Hendricks was 6-8 and Stroman was 10-9. That’s not a ton of bang for 40 million bucks. Stroman 25-Hendricks 14. I’m pretty sure some of the Cubs young P’s could go .500 for peanuts. We’d know if Ross even was doing his job and would of given them a chance. Now we’re still in guess mode. Spending more money on FA P’s would be the same as the stupid Happ extension and NTC. Gee if they hadn’t done that they’d be getting 2 compensatory picks for Happ and Bellinger and saved $45 million on Bellinger and Happ next year. Then maybe it would be worth it to sign somebody. But they did and they won’t reap the benefits. Like I said, If the Cubs had let the young guys play SOONER, Like I suggested all year, They might have a better grasp of the situation. Like The Red Sox did. Like the Reds did. Like the D-Backs did. Cubs fans solution is always spend more money. It’s stupid and it always has been and they basiclly suck at it. Far more big moves have failed than panned out. Sorry, But I’m not a believer.
This has been my pet peeve about the Cubs for several years under Theo and Jed, you DO NOT pay for a fifth starter.
If your farm system is so weak you have to fill your fifth starter slot with a free agent, that’s a serious problem. That also not a problem the Cubs currently have.
Now with that said, if Stroman and Hendricks both are picked up/opt in, they have no money for Yamamoto let alone add Hoskins. The Heyward money was split between Nico and Happ.
That’s why I say you have to ditch Smyly and Botes money via trade. Non-tendering Wisdom, clearing Bote and Smyly clears up nearly 20 million. Thanks to the stupid dead money going to Mancini this is a must do
I gotta think if the Cubs could of ditched Bote by now they would have. And good luck if you think you can dump Smyly’s 11 million on somebody. I mean Smyly might have to be the 5th starter next by necessity. You might be able to dump him at the deadline if he’ starts out well like last year.That’s still only 16 million and what’s Wisdom make? Gotta be peanuts. That’s not gonna get you Hoskins let alone Yammamoto. If they can even get Hoskins. I just thought that with all the options the Phillies have for 1B Harper, Bohm, Etc they might be willing to let him walk.
Uncle–please understand that I am not arguing against your point(s). I’m just asking you to round out the staff, with pitchers with ERAs under 4, ERA+ on the well positive side if you get rid of Hendricks and Stroman.
I totally respect you getting rid of them–but want to know you to verifiably replace them without crossing fingers on kids or others that have never done it.
Understand, that if Stroman opts in that both of them are 100% yours for ONE season. To find Stroman/Hendricks value on the free agent market you have probably commit 4 to 5 to more years at equal AAV and one of the strengths in the minors is pitching–though not ready nor guaranteed.
Let’s play your perfect world: Yamamato signs with Cubs and you have Steele (I will give you 1-2) then what Taillon as 4? 5? Who are your 3-4 guys? Smyly (no thanks) Wicks/Wesneski/Assad/Kilain (had that vision a year ago)
On the realistic side, Yamamoto signs elsewhere—-you have Steele, Taillon and please fill in the blanks with tangible guys better than what they have now.
Remember you have Stroman and Hendricks for ONE year. If you want to plug in Jordan Montgomery at 6/160 please do—but that’s leaves you with close to single digits for your second pitcher and your committed to Jon Lester length without the same talent.
And don’t forget there are teams in the division that also need pitching like the Brewers and Cardinals. Don’t take two out of your pocket and add to the pile that they can take from.
Well my whole point is I don’t want them to sign any FA P’s. I don’t want to give up the draft compensation. I don’t want them to throw away the money because there’s no guarantee they’ll be any better than what they have, Just way more expensive. And when they were 10 games under .500 and looked like crap if they would of given Killian, Wicks ,Assad and Brown a shot we might know. But yet again we don’t. Even if they light up ST what does that prove? Answer- Absolutely nothing. Getting them MLB experience, Even a bad one would of taught them more than they wasted all this year in AAA. But again, What do I know. I just know the 3 teams I mentioned all did it, And have a ton less questions than the Cubs have. AGAIN! As usual.
Any FA P’s other than Yammamoto and a couple of BP guys maybe. But we don’t know about the bullpen guys either now do we? Atta Boy Jed. All we know bout that is whatever 3 guys look good Ross will pound them into TJ surgery.
unc, Killian hasn’t done a single thing to make me think he could help the rotation in 2024. His shining moment was when he threw an excellent performance in the . . .wait, AZ fall league championship game. Give me a break. If he shows absolutely anything in the following spring, then I can see your argument. But he hasn’t.
And why anyone who wants to waste money on Rhys Hoskins is beyond me.
That’s why I said you have to attach a prospect to Smyly (and Bote) and if you clear that out in addition of moving Stroman you have nearly forty million cleared. That gives the Cubs roughly 50 million to spend after Hendricks is picked up and that is enough for Yamamoto and Hoskins.
The Cubs were stupid last year, they should have never let Mancinis money die (or Barnharts) for that matter.
Assad and Wicks are #5 starters. Hendricks #4,Taillon #3 Steele #1-2 along with a Yamamoto. The problem is they don’t have a fireballer to shake up the rotation. Most of those guys just don’t miss enough bats. I know they have a solid defense but a strikeout guy would help. Look at how many guys we’re seeing in the playoffs hitting the high 90s-100. (No, I didn’t include Stroman aide I hope he’s not back.)
Assad and Wicks are #5 starters. Hendricks #4,Taillon #3 Steele #1-2 along with a Yamamoto. The problem is they don’t have a fireballer to shake up the rotation. Most of those guys just don’t miss enough bats. I know they have a solid defense but a strikeout guy would help. Look at how many guys we’re seeing in the playoffs hitting the high 90s-100. (No, I didn’t include Stroman cause I hope he’s not back.)
Cards will be all in on Yamamoto – they have a scout stationed in Orix working that area. Yams has the same agent as Arenado; he played with Nootbaar on the Japan WBC team. Arenado & Noot are in Japan right now hanging out with him. And reports are that Yams will be a major target for the Cards and they have a lot of $$’s to spend on the #1 & #2 rotation slots this off-season. They’ll trade for a third mid-rotation starter to complement. Mikolas is a #4 and Matz and the farm system will have to supply the 5th spot. This info is all out there and available.
With Bellinger, Stroman and Hendricks gone the Cubs would have more than enough money. They have an owner who’s not afraid to spend. An iconic venue to play in. So sure who’d want to play here? That would be stupid of me to think that. Hoyer went to Japan to scout a few Japanese guys. I’m pretty sure every team that doesn’t have a cheap owner sent guys to talk to him and scout him. Not to mention personal friendships men squat in FA. Maybe that crap flies in Basketball, But doesn’t really mean squat in Baseball. Nobody really has an advantage at this point. Only the usual cheap bottom feeding owners won’t at least talk to his agent. Yams? Really? LMAO
So mike127- I want to see if I’ve got this straight. You’d rather pay Jordan Montgomery huge money, Rather than let Jordan Wicks pitch?
So Montgomery-
6’6- 228- Age 30
Pitches-Sinker-curveball-change up –160 million bucks?
Jordan Wicks
6’3- 220 lbs- Age 24
Pitches- Sinker- Four seam- curveball- change up
1 million bucks?
I’m sure they both have about the same velocity so the only difference between them is command and experience. So if you never give the guy
a chance how do you know what he is?
As far as Killian goes Nobody can give the guy 3 innings and say well you had your shot, You stink. That’s ridiculous. Not sure who said it.
The Brewers 4-5-6 Pitchers last year were Wade Miley, Houser and Colin Rea.
I gotta think Wicks, Assad and Killian can bring it as good as they do.
With Woodruff out, Burnes maybe gone and Peralta , I like Steele, Yammamoto( If they can get him), And Taillon. I think Taillon is much better than he pitched this year and at 17 million a year will get more chances. Doesn’t mean I’m right, But you’re expecting your 4-5 starters to be 20 game winners. You’ve got to accept reality at some point. I’ve been saying it all along give the kids a chance. Let them play and stop blocking them with overpaid veterans. Put the checkbook down except for precise targets. Stop spending because you can. It’s not smart.
They need power pitching in that rotation. They were 24th in all of baseball with a 20.3% K rate and the starters were 26th in fastball Velo (92mph), last season. That ain’t gonna cut it. Assad, Hendricks, Wicks, Killian just don’t miss enough bats.
I could care less about missing bats. I’m for missing barrels. Late breaking pitches that are weakly hit, makes more sense. I’m tired of Bozo’s with 10 foot breaking pitches that nobody swings at. Guys who have a hundred pitches in the 4th inning are basically worthless. They put the bullpen at a disadvantage. 35 pitch innings are boring. Guys who can make a pitch move 2 inches at the end of the pitch are much more valuable to me. Cubs have way too many guys who buy into the strikeout everybody mentality. Not that many guys have the stuff that just overpower everyone. That stupid slider the Cubs teach everybody is basically worthless. It’s a ball every time, If the batter is at least average. I’ll just disagree and say no thanks.
Interesting you would say that since you think Hendricks doesn’t have anything to offer the Cubs,
92 percentile in weak contact
78 percentile in barrel rate
98 percentile in exit velocity
Hendricks ranks in the top 1/4 of pitchers in everything that matters to you.
Well the Cubs just put out a statement that they want Hendricks back. So what I want doesn’t matter anymore anyway. Fact is with all that you said he was 6-8 and missed half the year so enjoy your 16 million dollar losing P. Congrats.
Attempting to use wins and losses to support your argument is beyond dated and borderline ridiculous and you know that.
Who exactly has a “strikeout everybody mentality”? That’s what they need some more of. And you missed the point. They don’t have to have a whole rotation that throws 100 mph. But they DO need one or two guys who can mix it up in a 3 or 4 game series. Trotting out one guy after another who tops out in the low 90’s is too predictable. I don’t believe they’ll improve with a rotation like that.
There’s some injury risk, but I think they should trade for Glasnow.
A rotation isn’t a line up, as long as you have good starting pitchers that miss barrels it’s fine if they don’t throw hard and don’t miss a lot of bats. Do you think there is a big difference for a hitter when a guy starts a game throwing 95 vs a guy throwing 92?
Having a big power arm could be a disservice when you consider bullpen makeup as well. The key to bullpen management is giving hitters different looks and getting ahead in counts as hitters try to adjust from different velocities, breaks and arm angles.
If the Cubs continue to keep Smyly and use him out of the pen, it would be nice to have him follow a big hard throwing right hander while the bats are sped up but if you have a starter throwing 95 and follow him with reliever who’s also throwing 95, it’s a disadvantage.
> Who exactly has a “strikeout everybody
> mentality”?
Rob Dibble
Get him to impregnate some volunteers
Grow a crop
No, make that two (extras and such)
Raise ‘em right
Teach ‘em how money is bad
Train some to be relievers, some as starters
Instant dynasty in 20 years!
Sign ‘em up for 20 years at $20MM each
7 consecutive WS trophies
Make momma proud
That’s a fair point but outside of Steele, they don’t have any starters that miss many bats- on a regular basis anyway.. My argument is that they have no one in the rotation throwing 95 or above. And I believe the same rationale concerning different velocities applies to starters as well as the BP.
I’d love to have a dynamite throwing ace and hopefully Horton will be that guy but diversity in rotation has little to do with velocity and more to do with righty/lefty and arsenal.
Having a guy throwing upper 90s to follow Hendricks in the rotation or vice versa isn’t a tactical advantage because teams have all day to prepare for the change in velocity.
I guess the point is, bats are not going to stay slow the next day, now throwing a 100 mph after seeing 88 for six innings is a huge advantage for the pitching staff. It’s even larger if it can come from a different arm slot and/or has a different break.
I think a lot of teams would offer him 2 years 40 million. pitching is expensive and he has real upside
Agreed John, but if he opts in and pitches well he can be looking at something similar to what we believe Sonny Gray will be offered this offseason. If he opts out now his offers won’t be as strong
Agreed, he bet on himself once before in 2021. Signed a 1 year pact with the Mets that paid off. I wonder if he’ll do it again
I would start the story about the Royals in a different way. “The Royals lost a longtime member of their front office yesterday” makes it sound like someone died.
And when the words “of his own accord” actually have quotation marks around them, you tend to wonder how much of his own accord it really is.
I actually wonder what his job was. One of the two accomplishments listed was Cain. His last year with the Royals was 2017, and I believe he was under control.
Joe Brady, et al: Come on, guys. We all know he left to be part of the Chicago Royals.
Molina as the bench coach would e great for many reasons. Marmol should feel pressure after last year’s meltdown. He has no problem pressuring players.
Molina in the dugout might keep Marmol and his ego in check.
It would make Marmol a dead man walking. Yadis voice would drown out any other
You say that like it’s a bad thing.
I’m saying if they’re bringing in Molina they might as well make the manager
I liked all the Molina boys behind the plate, but I wasn’t impressed by TDi’s performance as manager of Puerto Rico
I don’t think he’s ready to be manager. Give him a few years as bench coach.
I don’t think they could bring him into the big club as anything other than manager and have it not be a distraction. Not this early into his retirement.
lol. What could Molina possibly learn that he hasn’t already learned in 20 years as a Cards’ HofF catcher?
Front office politics and handling the press. Like it or not, that’s a big part of managing
See Mike Matheny
Still hope Stroman and Hendricks both go. That money would be better served elsewhere. They could maybe scoop up Yammamoto and Hoskins for that money which would be better use. No doubt Molina probably has as much knowledge of the game as anybody, Can he use it to teach also? That might be a big ask but it can’t hurt to give it a shot IMO.If Ross and Gomes couldn’t teach Contreras anything I highly doubt Molina can either if that’s the real goal here. Cubs need to trust the process and stay the course, I’ve been saying it all year. If Ross won’t do it, Say Ba Bye.
Molina acted as on field coach and pitching coach pretty much his entire tenure, he’s not going to have trouble adjusting to a bench coach role.
I had to look up the cubs payroll. A dodgers payroll for a marlins preforming roster.
Dodgers have less payroll into 2024 than the cubs.
Too many underperforming high salary players. – Tallon, Stroman.
I can see picking up hendricks option.
Money doesnt seem to be an object to this team as heyward is still being paid and when rizzo and bryant were traded, the cubs picked up the tab. They just dont spend it in the right spots when needed.
No he isn’t. Heyward still gets 5 million a year for the next 3 years. His 27 million or whatever it was is spread over 4 years. This was just the first. Plus you’re looking at Bellinger, I don’t if the Cubs have to pay the 5 million if he walks if they pick up their option, Mancini, Bote, Barnhardt, and probably more that I’m missing. The money they waste is crippling Hoyer needs to explai that.
Heywards contract isn’t signing bonuses. It’s the LAST year of his salary with the Cubs. It’s just pro-rated at 4 years for the Luxury Tax savings.
If you look at Spotrac about Heyward’s salary you’ll see you’re wrong. He didn’t opt out. The Cubs released him and OWED him his last year of his contract. They just spread it out over 4 years. My last post about him I promise.
Either way hoyer was gm when the cubs signed him. Based on their performance they are a $120 million team. If the cubs spend $200mil+ with mediocre results. hoyer should go.