Kyle Wright has battled shoulder problems all season, resulting in the Braves placing the righty on the 60-day injured list just prior to the start of their playoff run. Wright will miss all of the postseason, and unfortunately now all of the 2024 season as well, since manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including The Athletic’s David O’Brien) that Wright will undergo surgery to correct the problem.
Wright’s shoulder injuries started in Spring Training and resulted in a season-opening stint on the 15-day IL. He made five starts before being forced back to the IL for ended up being more than a four-month layoff. Returning to the Braves’ rotation in September, Wright pitched in four games — two as a starter, then two more as a reliever. With the playoffs looming, Wright was being positioned for a role in Atlanta’s bullpen during the postseason, which he was happy to do in order to help the team win. However, an MRI on Friday revealed more shoulder damage, and surgery now looks like a necessity to correct the problem once and for all.
The injury will essentially cost Wright two years of his career, as he’ll wrap his 2023 campaign with only 31 innings pitched. It’s a brutal outcome for the 28-year-old, especially after it looked like he had finally established himself as a viable big league starter in 2022.
The fifth overall pick of the 2017 draft, Wright took a quick route to the big leagues and made his MLB debut in September 2018. Through the 2018-21 seasons, Wright only pitched 70 Major League innings over 21 appearances (14 of them starts), posting a 6.56 ERA and simply not pitching well enough to stick in the rotation or even on the active roster. The silver lining was a championship ring in 2021, as though he made only two appearances in the regular season, he landed a spot on the World Series roster and delivered a 1.59 ERA in 5 2/3 innings of relief work.
This set the stage for Wright’s breakout. He posted a 3.19 ERA over 180 1/3 innings in 2022, leading the majors in wins with a 21-5 record. Though he allowed a lot of hard contact and his walk and strikeout rates were only slightly above the league average, Wright’s 3.48 SIERA wasn’t much higher than his real-world ERA, and his 55.6% grounder rate only got a bit of batted-ball luck in the form of a .284 BABIP.
Wright’s 2023 numbers were basically a wash, as he had a 6.97 ERA over his 31 frames. With this recent performance weighing more heavily than his 2022 season, Wright was projected to earn $1.4MM in 2024, his first year of arbitration eligibility. Missing the 2024 season entirely would mean that Wright’s 2025 salary will either match or be fractionally beyond that $1.4MM figure, so even if he returns healthy and productive in 2025, he’d get a bump up to maybe something in the $4MM range for 2026.
In short, the shoulder injury has cost Wright millions of dollars, as he would’ve locked in some increasingly large salaries through his arb years if he’d kept pitching anything like his 2022 self. Given the Braves’ penchant for extending their in-house players, a solid 2023 season might’ve been enough evidence to convince the front office to lock in a multi-year agreement with Wright, giving him an even bigger payday.
The one possible upside to these limited salaries is that Wright is still making so relatively little that the Braves will still tender him a contract, allowing Wright to rehab and then hopefully bounce back in good form by Opening Day 2025. But obviously, losing Wright for a year has an impact on the Braves’ long-term pitching plans as well.
Spencer Strider is locked up on an extension through at least the 2028 season, making him the cornerstone of Atlanta’s rotation for the rest of the decade. Beyond Strider, Max Fried is a free agent after the 2024 season, and 39-year-old Charlie Morton could potentially retire after this season. Bryce Elder pitched generally well this year, though his numbers regressed significantly after a great first three months. Rookies Jared Shuster, Dylan Dodd, Allan Winans, and AJ Smith-Shawver all made their big league debuts in 2023, but Smith-Shawver is the only one of the group who pitched decently well. Michael Soroka didn’t pitch particularly well over 32 1/3 innings in his comeback season and was shut down in September due to forearm inflammation. As for other injured starters, Kolby Allard only threw 12 1/3 innings due to oblique and shoulder nerve inflammation,and Huascar Ynoa missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
It’s a lot of depth but not necessarily a lot of proven quality, though getting by with a so-so-rotation might be okay for a Braves team with such a spectacular offense. Going into 2024, Strider, Fried, and Elder seemingly have rotation spots locked, and if Morton returns, that’s still a solid top four. Top prospect Hurston Waldrep might also be on the roster as early as Opening Day, so it’s possible Wright might’ve had a hard time getting back into the rotation (or even beating out the many other arms for the unofficial sixth starter job) even if he’d avoided surgery. Many things could still shake out by the time Wright is ready in 2025, particularly if Fried did leave and if Morton did decide to finally hang up his glove.
Wow should have going out and get either Justin V or Max S or Kyle Hendricks.
Wow are you enjoying drinks with Captain Obvious and Heinrich Hindsight today?
Would be cool if Alcantara, Wright and Gonsolin met up in Carribean with chips and drinks to watch the post-season
Why would Verlander (and probably Scherzer) be available?
I’m pretty sure he’s referring to when they were both available this past summer. Still inter division trades are hard to pull off and doubt the Mets would trade either one to the Braves
Yeah cuz max is heathy. Smh And who says Hendricks was available? Cubs were attempting to grab a wild card spot. No one was being traded. Love these fantasy managers thinking it’s so easy to just go grab a starter.
I assume they will get someone this offseason. They could possibly get Hendricks in the offseason if the Cubs exercise his buy out instead of his option.
Hopefully Sonny Gray wants to come back closer to home.
when Wright threw that many innings last year I knew he was a candidate for arm issues this year.
Soroka and Wright could get non-tendered
Maybe Ian Anderson as well
Nah. They wouldn’t have left Anderson on the 40 man roster all season to save the year of team control if they were going to non tender him. All 3 will probably be back.
He’s not busy reuniting Jethro Tull for another tour?
Why would they non tender wright? He’s a former 1st round pick with 20 wins just 2 seasons ago!!! He’s had injury issues this year no reason to non tender him.
Neither Sororka or Wright will be non-tendered this off-season. Both guys have too much ability, and the cost to retain them will be minimal. I can almost guarantee Atlanta keeps both. Depending on what Morton decides to do, Atlanta may need to be in the market then for a mid-rotation arm. Sororka and the other young pitchers will go to ST with the opportunity to fill the #4 & #5 spots.
Damn this is tough. He was a beast last year hopefully he can make a comeback and put the injuries behind him.
Braves should have stocked up on pitching at the deadline. Looks like that will be the priority in the offseason. Strider, Fried, Elder/Shawver for the NLDS, Strider, Fried, Elder, Morton, Winans if they make the NLCS and beyond. Braves had worse pitching problems in 2021 and still won
Only reason pitching might be a priority is because their position players are absolutely LOCKED down for next five years or so. Murphy, Olson, Albies, Riley, Acuna, Harris .. sheesh. Leaves SS, OF, and DH as only positions not locked down.
The Braves system has and seemingly always will be pitching heavy. I could see them adding one vet starter maybe, and maybe a bullpen arm on the cheap. That’s about it. They are loaded.
The bigger question for the Braves remains the same as in the hay-day of Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz .. is a team built to dominate the regular season capable of winning the World Series?
More to come seems redundant at this point. He won’t pitch next year and that’s that.
I mean in 6yrs the guy has had “one” good/healthy season. ONE… yes that one season was a 21 Win season – but time to move on.
To be fair, he was in minors most of the time before his 1st full season…the 21 win one. You can’t ding a guy for being in minors when he’s young. They pretty much all do that.
Another one goes down. Anybody have any numbers for the total of pitchers who have gone down this year. I wonder if there is a breakdown for Tommy Johns and other injuries by numbers. ? Curious because the kitchen clock hasn’t been mentioned. I think it definitely has contributed to arm injuries. With the power pitchers not having as much time to rest and wind up between pitches. I think the tempo has added to more injuries.
Morton will have his 20 million option picked up.
No brainer really.
Is it?
I don’t know anymore.
-Charlie Morton has missed 2 out of the past 3 postseasons.
-1 was the broken leg on a ground ball that wasn’t his fault and the finger injury this year.
-He will be 40 next year.
-You don’t get healthier as you get older.
$20MM is a lot to not have pitching in Octobers.
They need a SS and an OF to replace Rosario. I think they need to move Acuna out of the leadoff spot and add an OF with speed who gets on base at the top of the lineup. And a SP ”innings eater” type who can stay healthy.
Injuries cost them a prime year of this team’s youth. Unless the goal is to have woo-hoos in the clubhouse because you had the best regular season record, only to choke to death in October again and again.
Long article followed up with “in short”.
Too bad for him and the team!
So Fried, Strider, and Elder for next year. Gonna need to sign 2 starters. Maybe Montgomery and Sonny Gray.
> So Fried, Strider, and Elder for next year.
+Charlie Morton ?
Montgomery would be nice. Gray strikes me as the kind of guy to stay put. He seems to like where he’s at and given his struggles elsewhere, I would not be surprised if he stayed in Minnesota. Then again, Gray is from Tennessee and that is more or less Braves country so who knows.
Sonny Gray did not struggle in Cincinnati. In fact, I’d say his best season was in Cincinnati in 2019 (if not then 2023 in MIN). The Reds need a pitcher or two also. I’m President of the Sonny Gray Back to Cincy Fanclub.
Braves will pick up Morton’s option if he still wants to pitch. Smith-Shawver probably claims a rotation spot. Soroka, Ian Anderson, Huascar Ynoa, Winans in the mix as depth. Waldrep may get a chance at some point next season too. Rather see the Braves extend the arm they know in Fried than waste money on FA starters. Plenty of good young arms on the rise in the Braves system. Why block them w/expensive FA gambles on older pitchers?
Agreed on the FA starters, though I thin it makes sense to look into a middle cost option like Sonny Gray. If the Braves cannot lock down Fried, I expect them to go after one FA arm.
I also disagree on the Smith-Shawver claims a rotation spot bit. It will be an open competition amongst Shuster, Dodd, AJSS, Vines, Soroka, and even some of the younger Braves.
With the extremely talented players locked down on offense, I expect the Braves to stay on the cheap side of FA starters .. and still easily make the playoffs next year.
Shoulder injuries seem to be tougher to come back from than elbow injuries. But with this it does make me worry about Max Fried perhaps needing a 2nd Tommy Johns surgery later on.
Ian Anderson and Huascar Ynoa will be back, Soroka will be healthier, Braves will be fine.
Nothing changes with this team. You’d think they would have a chip on their shoulder from last year. Already down a game to the same team who just happens to be a division rival. Embarrassing. It’s not a coincidence the best offense in baseball gets shutout for the first time at home all season. Not taking anything away from the Phillies, because their pitching was great, but you can’t tell me the bye doesn’t affect them. I said the same thing last season and I’ll keep saying it. 5 days off is a negative, not a positive.
I wouldn’t label it as “embarrassing” because of game one. Philadelphia is good, and they’re right there with the Braves in terms of talent. This was always going to be the most dangerous series for the Braves.
I do agree that the layoff seems to hurt more than it helps with the offense. Flip side is, if they didn’t have it, Fried’s blister may have been a bigger question mark, and they could have had to just open the series with a bullpen game.
The Braves had chances last night but simply didn’t convert any of them. They seemed to live/die by the HR during the season and didn’t manufacture runs as well as other teams but that may just be my take on them and nothing factual. You have to get hits in those situations in the playoffs, though. Strider pitched great last night but it didn’t matter. Game 2 is already a must win for the Braves. Down 0-2 going to Philly? Forget it.
Sean Murphy 1/6 thrown out in SB attempts and an error. 0/3 at the plate. Philly looks like they are going to challenge him. So far he’s not up to it.
I’m not panicking yet because I didn’t expect Atlanta to win both at home to start, nor do I expect Philly to win both in Philly. However, you’re right, game 2 is a must win for Atlanta now. They’re not going into Philadelphia and taking both games there.
Changing the lineup order for stupid reasons
Acquiring Hand midseason for stupid reasons
Not getting a starter midseason for stupid reasons
Down 0-1 once again.
RE: Lineup changes for “no reason”
From Battery Power—
Braves shake up their lineup for Game 1
The Braves are shuffling their lineup for Game 1 of the Division Series with Austin Riley hitting second and Ozzie Albies slotted into the clean up spot. Snitker pointed to the many left-handed options that the Phillies have as a reason for the change.
“Just a lot of their heavy leverage guys are left-handed, and just trying to get the right-handers up there more,” Snitker said. It’s something you know what we’ve done in the past. This is the postseason. This is different than the last 162 games we played and a big part of their bullpen are left-handed guys.”
Source—
batterypower.com/2023/10/7/23907615/brian-snitker-…
The lineup changes made sense. The Phillies have some dominant LH relievers, and the idea was when they brought in the lefties to face Olson, you then have to face Albie’s from his strongest side. It was a sound strategy.
I’m not sure why you’re complaining about Hand, other than you enjoy complaining.
They also didn’t need a SP mid-season. Spencer, Max and Charlie is a solid playoff rotation. Elder was outstanding in the first half. When you have four starters, you can feel good about that in the playoffs. No way to know Morton would get hurt. Pitching wasn’t the issue last night anyway, so…
The Phillies just pitched a great game and Turner made a gem of a defensive play late. Sometimes that’s just how it goes.
I’ve always been a fan of Trae Turner and his talent… but man he had super punchable face last night when he demanded the challenge and walked straight off the field after tagging Albies. What a d-bag, plus his glove clearly hit the ground first before tagging Albies
But you’re okay with throwing beer cans onto the field. I guess you missed that part of the game. Stay classy, Atlanta!
“surgery now looks like a necessity to correct the problem once and for all”
Has any pitcher ever had shoulder surgery that corrected a problem once and for all?
Right, and it’s s little early to say “once and for all”. They haven’t even opened him up yet to see what’s inside and the extent of his injury.
Spot on.
I would say that ‘pitchers’ seem to have more of a chance than ‘throwers’ that rely on power, Wright was never a thrower, relying more on control and weak contact, but a shoulder injury is never good.
I don’t have a list to peruse, but I just don’t remember too many pitchers coming back to prior performance levels after a shoulder surgery. Still, advancements are always being made, so I am hoping Wright comes back even better and had a brilliant career, no matter where he ends up.
What exactly is wrong with his shoulder?
Kyle Wright said the shoulder surgery will involve fixing “holes” in the capsule and that it’s a long rehab that’ll definitely force him to miss the entire 2024 season.
—David O’Brien, senior writer covering the Braves at The Athletic
Reports today have some more information on wright. Perforations of the shoulder capsule. Extent not fully known until surgery is performed. A shoulder capsule tear can end a pitchers career faster than most ucl tears. Thankfully in recent years there has been high success in players returning from this injury. Ten of eleven players in a recent survey successfully returned to pro baseball. In a study of players having a procedure similar to wright they have had to have a follow up procedure or clean up in roughly three and a half years. years. Article below that i pulled the info from if anyone wants to read it.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9978988/
Thank you!
I am not certain if I am reading it correctly, but it looks like if he does need that surgery the average return time is 16 months. I hope it’s not that for his sake, but it is good news that the surgery has been more successful in recent years.
Braves had no problem keeping Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine healthy despite their workloads. Gotta wonder why the state of the current Braves SP looks like an episode of M*A*S*H, only without the laugh-track!
Despite all of the high profile pitching prospects they have, probably a good idea to add a proven SP (Snell or Nola, anyone?) this off-season just in case a few of the current SP gethurt again.
That, and Strider had problems late in the season, as did Elder. Plus, Charlie Morton is another year older.