Just over fourteen months ago, the Padres shook the baseball world at the 2022 trade deadline by dealing a package of prospects and young players to the Nationals in exchange for superstar outfielder Juan Soto (alongside first baseman Josh Bell). The addition of Soto gave San Diego a young, elite talent to replace Fernando Tatis Jr. for the remainder of the season as the club sought its first full-season postseason berth since 2006 before pairing the two up in the outfield in 2023 and beyond.
Soto fulfilled his end of the bargain, posting a 131 wRC+ in 228 trips to the plate down the stretch for the Padres before slashing .222/.333/.611 in the NLCS as the club fell to the Phillies in five games last year. He went on to post what has become a typical season by his standards in 2023: the 24-year-old phenom slashed a strong .275/.410/.519 (155 wRC+) while clubbing 35 home runs, recording more walks than strikeouts and playing in all 162 games for the Padres en route to his third consecutive All Star appearance. Unfortunately, the rest of the club was unable to keep up with him this season, as the Padres finished with an 82-80 record, spending most of the season under .500 and never leading the NL West despite lofty preseason expectations.
The club’s brutal 2023 campaign seems to be spurring changes for the club going forward, as reports have indicated the club is planning to cut payroll from this year’s $255MM figure to around $200MM this offseason. Such a steep cut in payroll, of course, has caused speculation about how the Padres could hope to improve a roster that figures to lose Josh Hader and Blake Snell to free agency this winter. With MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projecting Soto to make a whopping $33MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility, it’s easy to see why many around the baseball world expect the club to entertain offers on the superstar this offseason.
After all, saving over $30MM on Soto’s salary could allow the club to supplement other areas of need on the roster within their newfound payroll constraints, to say nothing of the possibility that the Soto return could include big league ready pieces who could help supplement the 2024 roster themselves. As talented as Soto is, it’s at least conceivable that the club could improve for the future while minimizing the hit to their overall competitiveness next season if they make savvy additions to counterbalance the hypothetical loss of their star slugger.
The other side of that argument is simple: a Soto trade would almost assuredly downgrade the 2024 team. Even as the Padres stand to lose Snell and Hader in free agency, the club has several aging players on long-term deals. Players like Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Joe Musgrove, and especially Yu Darvish aren’t getting any younger, and there’s an argument to be made that sacrificing the present for the future to any degree is a mistake given the club’s aging core of expensive stars even as San Diego sports the sport’s 11th best farm system, per Fangraphs.
It’s also worth noting how the Padres lost in 2023. While their 82-80 record certainly left something to be desired, they posted the eighth-best run differential in baseball and the third-best figure in the National League behind only 100-win juggernauts in Atlanta and LA. The club’s Pythagorean record in 2023 was a far more palatable 92-70, with a similar 91-71 expected record according to BaseRuns. Championships aren’t won through projected standings, of course, but when looking ahead to 2024 it’s certainly fair to wonder if a very similar Padres team could achieve much better results with more fortune in extra innings (2-12) and one-run games (10-28). Holding onto Soto wouldn’t even necessarily preclude the club from dealing him later, as the Padres could always trade him at the 2024 deadline if they fall out of contention early in the year.
All that said, the dream scenario for Padres fans involves neither the club trading Soto nor him walking in free agency next offseason. Ideally, San Diego would surely prefer to extend their superstar and keep him in the outfield alongside Tatis for the next decade or longer. That may be easier said than done, of course, as Soto infamously rejected a $440MM extension offer from the Nationals prior to his trade to San Diego. The sort of megadeal that would be required to retain Soto figures to be hard to stomach for most clubs, but perhaps especially one like the Padres that, in addition to their desire to cut payroll this offseason, already has over $100MM on the books every year for the rest of the decade.
Unlikely as an extension may seem on paper, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has proven time and time again that his front office shouldn’t be counted out regarding major trades, free agent signings, and especially extensions if an opportunity to improve the club arises. Preller figures to weigh all these factors and more when deciding an approach regarding Soto this offseason. In his end-of-season press conference, Preller indicated that he plans to discuss a possible extension with Soto during the offseason but nonetheless did not rule out a trade of the young superstar this winter, leaving the door open for San Diego to take a variety of approaches over the next few months.
What path do MLBTR readers think Preller and the Padres should take regarding Soto this offseason? They could make every effort to extend him while looking to cut payroll elsewhere, trade him for pieces that could help extend the club’s current window of contention, or simply stick with him through his final year of arbitration and re-evaluate things at the trade deadline next summer. Have your say in the poll below.
(poll link for app users)
Nats fan here.
You’d better trade him while you can get something for him because in his mind he’s going to free agency and getting what a healthy Ohtani would get.
His value will decrease if they wait until midseason. Since they are looking to lower payroll, and they need to do some roster restructuring, best to move him now. Not a lot of quality hitters available in free agency either, so his trade market will be strong.
Lower payroll – why is everyone buying it o Acre’s reporting when ownership has continued to say that they are “staying the course”?
If you can get more out of him on the team (offensive production) then you can get in return – you keep him. If someone gives you a haul that you can’t refuse – trade him. Pretty simple.
The salary isn’t the issue. It’s more about a 2024 WS run than a few million in payroll for the ownership.
I’d bet that they are seriously trying to extend him as opposed to looking at trade but with Boras that probably doesn’t work.
None of us knows what will be offered. All of those “trade him now” guys need to first know what is being offered.
Less than they gave up – obviously. More than they could get at trade deadline – probably but never know when other teams get involved at deadline deals.
Until we know what is offer your opinion is unjustified either way.
Opinions are justified, even if you don’t want to agree with them.
I’m not disagreeing with people having opinions. I said until you know what is offered in trade, an opinion – I said either way – isnt justified. Maybe another word, can’t be validated.
Oh trade him now – what if the offer is no one in top 100? Still trade him?
Oh keep him – what if the offer is – fill in the blank – something that blows you away. Still keep him?
All of these polls where a critical factor can’t be known are flawed.
If appropriate variables are given (provide the what if trade pieces for example) then the answers can be narrowed down for argument which would bring in your point.
It’s MLB trade RUMORS. We don’t know the specifics of any trade/signing until after the fact. This place is to discuss and share opinions on the RUMORS of the league
But “trade him for what” is also a part of the rumor process. A hypothetical package can be set up as part of the survey to validate or give reasonable conversations.
Trade / don’t trade / extend (at what price?) are too vague and broad for real discussions is all I’m saying.
Give me an amount for the extend.
Give me a trade package for the trade/don’t trade.
Example – SD gets a top 20; a top 60 and a back end 100. Trade or don’t trade.
Consider how many “don’t trade” votes might become “trade” votes.
The example could go the other way. SD gets a 70-75 and a couple of other lottery tickets – hmmm, not trading becomes the leader.
why is everyone buying it o Acre’s reporting when ownership has continued to say that they are “staying the course”?
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After what’s happened over the past week or two, I’d be a little cautious listening to what Acee wrote. I mentioned this to another poster in one of the previous articles, unless I hear from Seidler or Preller to payroll is being reduced, there isn’t much to discuss.
Long – I think when most people say trade, they mean attempt to trade. It’s kinda already implied they want a fair or better return.
Everyone in San Diego, including other local media/reporters, is asking Acee for a source to his oft-published rumor that the team is trimming payroll to $200k. Acee: ( crickets).
I agree Preller will be listening to offers If blown away trade Him . I’m sure Padres will try to extend Soto making him a reasonable offer as well .Padres might be cutting back a little to get below but preller said they have not came up with a payroll # yet . Soto decision will be interesting though .
What fantasy world are you living in where this Padre team will compete for a World Series in 2024?
Honestly, Preller is an awful PBO, his roster construction is terrible, his managing of the luxury tax is terrible and his long term vision is non-existent. The Padres swung, and whiffed, and now need to spend another decade rebuilding. The fact they are going to have Bogaerts and Machado sucking away from their payroll for so long is really going to hurt, delaying the rebuild even further.
The writing is on the wall for this team, they will be around .500 for the next two years and slowly dip further and further below.
The Padres are going to have to pray they hit some home runs in trades because their long term outlook is grim.
You may not be wrong but follow your thought to what I have said and realize that what one person calls fair isn’t always what another considers fair.
To allow for a justifiable conversation all that is required is to define all of the variables.
I gave examples of what I mean elsewhere.
“Acee for a source”..Reporters rarely reveal sources. Most have to be under oath to do so. I haven’t heard Pads management specifically refute his report actually.
Why would Pads management feel a need to weigh in on any rumor to the contrary from Seidler’s regular public-stated commitment to dedicate max $ to get a championship?
The last time Seidler spoke about payroll was a little over a month ago when he said it will be about the same as this years.
I don’t buy for a second the padres will trim payroll down to 200m this year.
I’ll take what Seidler said vs acee who said 200m. Also acee for reference said the padres could spend up to 5m last off seasons and they spent over 400m. Don’t listen to these reports.
The padres may trade Soto because he decide not to sign an extension and they got a great offer. Other wise about 70% in my eyes he will be a padre next year.
Padres need to trade Soto for a 60 grade prospect and a 50+ but odds are, those types of offers won’t come in. He’s worth his 30 million dollars but there isn’t excess value in his contract. The only plus side is you get a prospect back in return via a compensation pick.
People really fail to understand trades, you make trades based on need and excess value, Soto is a 60 grade player so you either get a 60 grade prospect in return or two 50+ prospects. His “excess” value is the compensation pick which I’d say is valued in the 45-50 range given the round which a player is drafted. There is bo built in value in his pay so that argument is moot.
@longtime.
Looking at your first scenario, if someone offered a top 20, top 60 and borderline top 100 I would do it if I were SD!
It will be interesting to see what he will command in free agency. Its seems like his outfield capabilities are diminishing. He has slightly better range, statistically, than….*checks notes*….Kyle Schwarber. And his arm strength is decent , but is a move to 1B in the near future for him?
My guess is 12/420. Judge got 40 million AAV but also just came off an epic season while being a plus defender. Soto isn’t the defender Judge is, and I’m worried about his longevity but I don’t think a 35 million AAV given his age is out of the question. I do think it would be a mistake.
Harper and Machado I would have had no issue with a 12 year deal but Soto scares the heck out of me on a 12 year deal. I feel most GMs would feel the same which is why I don’t think he hits a 40 million aav contract.
Braves could use an upgrade in LF
The Braves aren’t going to spend that kind of money or capital… not how they work.
He certainly did not fulfill his end of the bargain in 2022. The Padres gave up their car, home, and children and then some for this guy.
In 2022 the Pads disposed of the Dodgers ( like AZ is about to do) and were one pitch away from a WS trip.
They had to win more than just that last game to go to ws
true but had they won the last game to tie the series they had a very favorable pitching match up in the final game that would have been in SD. Point being that they were very close to WS so hardly a failed 2022
If you believe the Padres are going cut payroll for 2024 and still contend for a wildcard then trading Soto is essential because Soto cannot pitch.
The money is needed to resign Wacha and Lugo and to replace Snell.
The silly Friars spent a boatload last year on a Bogey and still finished 18 games behind a Dodgers team that had four injured starting pitchers, Buehler, Kershaw, Gonsolin and May, plus a suspended one in Urias, so this year Friars need a hole in one.
Dodgers will have money to reload after their playoff shame and will grab premier pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto snell and Nola
Manny – why can’t they just use the Snell/Pomeranz money falling off the books to sign Wacha/Lugo?
Still Hader money available and then still about 10-17 (depending on who is on the list) in DFA savings.
Grish – replaced by Azocar. This is characterizing Grish as the 4th OFer after Tatis moves to Cf and Lee is put in RF.
Hill – replaced by Kerr or Morejon
These are all improvements with same money with the exception of Snells crazy year which I think we all agree he: (1) isn’t coming back and (2) isn’t likely to repeat that 4 month run ever again.
Lee in RF? Who’s Lee?
Jung “Hoo Hoo” Lee
Padres currently sit at 160-170 mill in payroll before arb salaries.
Idk what the spending limit is for 2024 but I can almost guarantee the payroll will be 230 or less. Doubt the Padres go past the 1st tax penalty line, think it’s 231 or something.
Kim needs a new extension,
they need to replace Snell, Hader/Suarez (if suarez shifts to closer they need someone to replace suarez in the pen), Lugo
Possibly resign Cooper and Sanchez
I say trade Soto. Get back some young cheap controllable pieces and put his 30+ mill arb salary to better use elsewhere on the roster. With Soto Padres sit around 200 mill before arbs kick in. I’d target Lee out of South Korea as his replacement.
Note: if you cut players like Grisham, Hill or whoever in final arb year (or trade them) you also need to spend more to replace them. So cutting arb guys isn’t reducing payroll when you have to spend more to replace them.
NoSubscriptions4Lyfe
Kim needs a new extension,
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I love Kim, but that might not be the best choice.
If you traded him, you’d get a nice haul, and Cron could move back to 2nd where he belongs. And as much as I like him, has his value peaked?
I agree with trading Kim and shifting cronenworth back to 2B. Then signing an actual 1B.
Or Merrill takes 2b or SS and x the other with Cron still at 1b.
Based his 7 mil contract and his last 2 seasons of 5+ WAR (or you pick which one) Kim is at a high point for a trade to a SS needy team.
Honestly, he might get more back today than Soto.
More to that point, with Merrill and Cron, he is more replaceable than Soto.
Yeah I’d trade Kim before Soto. Kim is the most movable and replaceable player the padres don’t have locked in. Both. Cronenworth or the number 9 prospect in baseball merrill can play second.
Won’t trade him as he’s team ambassador to games in Korea next April
I’m aware and they won’t trade him but he is very movable
Plus they will need him to sign his buddy Lee
Plus they need him to sign his buddy Lee.
Apparently, SD is a leader for Lee. He may be expected to take a year to catch up like HSK did though. I still like the idea of bringing him in for RF.
Tirso was looking good at end of the year for a ST possibility as well.
Padres fan here. The dude is great, but he’s like a roller coaster. The guy can slam home runs, then he’ll drop a ball in the outfield. He’s an extremely frustrating player to watch. But he’s great, and I love having him.
That being said, I hate to admit that he’s probably worth more to the team elsewhere. I’d love to keep him, but probably not at the price he’s asking for. We should use him while he’s valuable to get something good and cut payroll. The completely baffling Boegarts contract made it to where we can’t have our cake and eat it too.
Bogey was crazy. They could have signed Candelarioto be a stopgap at first kept Kim at short and Crony at 2B. Maybe Crony would have choked less with reduced pressure to hit at 2B and then had money to extend Soto or more importantly replenish starting pitching. Bogey signing hurt Padres even more than overpaying to extend Machado or trading Trea for Myers or signing Hosmer, although all of these moves help explain why even with an end of year streak they finished 18 games behind the Dodgers and also behind the Diamondbacks who with cheap young players have Dodgers on brink of elimination
sirchaseph: Do you think the Padres can get players in return for Soto that are equal to the players they gave up to get him?
Of course not. If you trade for a player for three years, and use two of those years, the chances of you getting the same package is very slim.
Juan Soto? More like Gone Soto (ba-dum TSSS)
It’s easier to not miss Xander in Boston when $an Diego gave him $280 million. Remember Jacoby Ellsbury? That’s going to be an ugly contract in 3 years
Red Sox fans miss Mookie Betts.
We do *sigh* if only the Dodgers had extended him for $800 million so we could swallow it
Their real fans don’t.
Why not “Juan Gone,” like Juan Gonzalez was nicknamed?
“In addition to their desire to cut payroll this offseason, [the Padres] already have over $100MM on the books every year for the rest of the decade.”
Man they have some bad contracts
Namely…?
Namely there is no better contract in mlb than Tatis deal. The Musgrove, Bogaerts and Machado deals are quite reasonable too.
*There is no better contract in MLB than the Acuna deal.
Ok, yes I forgot about the Acuna deal!
LOL @ someone thinking the Tatis deal is better than the Acuna deal.
There is a reason the Braves win every year and the Padres under perform, mainly one GM knows what he is doing and the other is an overhyped frat boy.
Since we brought up Kim – where does that contract rate? Even at 1 year / 7 mil he is a 2x 5 WAR guy at a premium position with flexibility.
Lol Musgrove, Bogaerts and Machado deals reasonable.
Probably Yordie as well. Almost definitely JRod is a better. contract. Probably Carroll.
okay okay, all good points. But Tatis deal opposite example of “some bad contracts”
All monster deals are bad contracts until proven otherwise imo. So few have worked out in the long run historically
Tatis has 11-years $324.9MM ($29.54MM avg per year) left to be paid. The current estimation of 1.0 WAR in $ is $5.7MM. So for the next 11 years Tatis has to be worth 57.0 WAR for a net zero on his deal. (I checked three times, 324.9/5.7 is 57 exactly!) He has to be worth 5.18 WAR per year for 11 years simply to justify that contract. Anything higher is surplus value for the Padres.
Source for $5.7MM/1.0 WAR—
bleacherreport.com/articles/10063324-inside-the-ri…
You are completely ignoring the fact that he wouldn’t be a free agent for some time. Free agent WAR may be worth that much, but he definitely wouldn’t make free agent money as an arb or pre-arb player.
ohyeadam
All monster deals are bad contracts until proven otherwise imo.
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I have no idea how to even process that statement. The only way to positively prove an event is until after the event. You should presume that everyone is speculating on what will happen in the future.
I find at least two error:
1-The writer opens with “A decade ago, the math conducted by FanGraphs’ Matt Swartz suggested the cost of one win above replacement in free agency was just under $5 million.” And one decade later a WAR is worth only $5.7M? 14% over 10 years? It is more like 60%, maybe more.
2-Even if the number was right, which is unlikely, you cannot divide by 5.7 without including inflation. Even using a modest 4%, the 5.7 becomes 8.44 in ten years.
The correct approach is to take his predicted WAR, apply all the usual aging adjustment. Then multiply that by the $5.7M (if that number is correct) adjusting by inflation.
Joe, I’ll start naming mega contracts that didn’t work well and you start naming ones that did.
Rendon
Correct. I threw together a quick analysis with some herpies attached to it. I ignored inflation and the WAR inconsistencies because I didn’t want to spend another two hours writing up my comment for it to be seen by 3 people.
My point was that Tatis does not have a team friendly deal. It is a fair deal for both sides if he performs well and it will change over time as salaries and revenues increase. But to imply that it is one of the best contracts in MLB is incorrect.
Look at the Austin Riley for a remaining 10-year contract that is similar but better. Riley is 2 years older but he is getting paid $100+MM less than Tatis. Riley is 9/197 guaranteed with a 1/20 team option and Tatis is 11/324.9. That’s a 1/107.9 difference if Riley’s option is picked up.
Tatis does have a team friendly dod is it the most team friendly deal ever made or currently done no.
The reason the cost per war which is far greater the. You posted is important specially with inflation is it takes it from a fair even deal to a team friendly deal. You are just wrong and that’s based off Tatis coming back from two major surgeries and not playing for 18 months. He will likely outperform these numbers next year and years going forward.
based upon his per/AB stats to date, a healthy Tatis leads the league in war several times in next decade. Perhaps the best thing that happened for the Pads in 2023 was that Tatis was durable, playing 99% of games after coming back from suspension.
Joe – I didn’t click the link but when I read the post I was thinking that 1 WAR was like 8 mil a couple of years ago. I was thinking I might be wrong – gasp. Now I realize that I was wrong for thinking I was wrong!
Thanks for clearing that up.
You are ignoring that they still had cheap control years when they signed him, making it look worse.
Interesting that Bogaerts is listed as “aren’t getting any younger” when he is in his first year with the team and is signed through 2033. Soto’s projected contract price only makes (some, not a lot) sense if you intend to compete at the highest levels for the next few years. Lowering payrolls isn’t consonant without looking at the expense side.
Well, Bogey IS 31 years old.
when he is in his first year with the team and is signed through 2033.
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One has nothing to do with the other. While technically, no one is getting younger, guys like Soto & Tatis are 24 or so, while X is 6 years older. It is all about the aging curve.
It’s a standard approach of sports analysts and commentators talking out of both sides of their mouth, amounting to them saying something along the lines of:
“Okay, as he heads into free agency, we will refer to him as only such and such years old and that he deserves a decade long deal, but once he signs the deal we will refer to him as already such and such years old and that the team is stuck with him for the next decade, even though it’s been 3 seconds between him putting pen to paper and lifting pen from paper on the contract.”
This is a bizarre phenomenon in baseball that I will never understand- when a highly coveted player is signed to a free agent contract or extension that was mostly universally being promoted and highly anticipated, and his age was being touted as “only X years old” and then *one year later* it’s “well, he’s already Y years old and only getting older and they still have Z number of years on that deal.”
It’s ridiculous, but it is fodder for articles, debate, commentators providing a stream of words on air, etc. it’s just sports entertainment content that is ultimately meaningless.
In fairness, many people argued that the Bogaerts contract was too long for his age/production at the time he was signed in SD. It isn’t like the concerns magically popped up after one season in SD.
Soto’s rejection of the Nats offer is not a proper use of the word “infamously.” He notedly rejected the offer, not infamously. He likely exceeds the total value offered, not including the millions he’s made the last couple seasons.
I’d have to agree with you on this.
Go on, take the money and run.
Once they was an old couple named AJ and Bob.
Lost a lot of games and they were chased by the mob.
AJ spent money from another man’s castle.
Bob lost the games and that started this hassle.
They built a stadium using yours and mine taxes,
They get upset when we tell what the facts is,
Go on, take the money and run.
Points for creativity but you lost me at Bob losing the games – players lose games. Coaches may be questioned in hindsight about leaving a guy in or not, but players lose games by not doing what they are paid to do on a consistent enough or timely basis.
If Manny, Soto, Bogy and Tatis had each gotten say 5-6 more hits over the course of the year in the most timely of situations, how many of those 1 run games would have been flipped to wins?
No hoo-hoo-hoos?
Too early in morning but Brew Crew earned a chocolate Yoo Hoo
Brew Crew:
I’m no Steve Miller, but
Maybe Jung “Hoo Hoo” Lee?
As a Cubs fan ( and I’m one too ) you’re allowed to be creative
Where is the option to keep him through free agency and let him hit free agency (not to reassess during the summer)? That would have to be a possible course of action. I mean, you can’t just assume a guy will be traded now or later or extended 100% of the time.
Where is the option to keep him through free agency
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That is presumably part of the summer assessment.
The Dodgers never considered trading Trea Turner or Kanley Jansen over the summer. That may not be likely, but it’s a remote possibility.
That’s because the Dodgers were in contention. If the Dodgers were out of contention, they might have traded either.
I have found little evidence to not believe Seidler when he says the only goal is to contend for a championship every year, including 2024. If that is the only goal, then Soto will be in the lineup opening day (possibly after being extended) and it’s unlikely they will be out of contention by late August.
A contending team’s goal is to acquire players like Soto, not deal them….
Exactly. Not to mention one of their goals needs to be getting better production versus rhp and since Soto arrived in 2018 he has been the best hitter in baseball against them.
There is a world where you trade him this offseason, but that is only after you know he is not staying long term AND you get a big enough of an offer that it’s worth their while.
Trading Soto you can bet will hurt attendance in 2024 so they won’t be trading him for an ok not great package.
I disagree respectfully. A contending team’s goal is to acquire players who fulfill specific needs for the team that helps them win. Any specific player, no matter how good, may or may not fill that need. It is dependent not just on the player’s individual stats but also on how the player interacts with and impacts other players on the team. I do not know if Soto is what the Padres need as I don’t follow the Padres. I do know that the difference between their 2023 record and their projected record is very disturbing and suggests problems of consistency in play. If I was management, that would be one of the primary issues I would study and try to address.
Soto was their best hitter by far in 2023, and they will not be able to improve their lineup in 2024 via trade for prospects.
extend him and don’t cut payroll
Likely scenario
Yeah this wasn’t an option and I believe it as the most likely.
The Padres are a financial disaster and Preller should not be in charge of any team
You made that up. Revenues are skyrocketing as is attendance. It’s the most entertaining team in baseball thanks to Seidler and I just renewed my season tickets.
Why are Padres more entertaining than Atlanta just as an example?
I am not disagreeing just curious what criteria you are applying?
@Manny just my personal view, a very likable owner and players. The Braves are obviously at the top of most “ fun teams” lists in all of sports, even before their present greatness, even to us west coasters, just ask my 11 year old son who wore his Riley jersey to school today.
Attendance doesn’t cover expenses. Spending based on revenue from a TV contract that expired because nobody could afford it and getting bailed out by MLB so the team could pay players… why would I need to make anything up
“Financial disaster” implies that Seidler cares about whether he’s losing or making money. He says he doesn’t.
Speaking of a trade this seems like something sneaky the Cardinals would pull off, and I’d just hate that as a Cubs fan.
Has everyone just forgotten or ignored that Gary Sanchez is a good player again? Everyone just assumes Campusano is going to step right in and they need a back-up? Did he diddle some kids or something that everyone forgot that he’s a hell of a player?
“Did he diddle some kids or something” — stay classy, SD.
He’s an ok of a player. Completely too streaky to be a hell of a player or even a hall of very good player. Also, he was a decent player before, and then was trash for a long time, and now he’s ok again.
The point is that you can’t trust what kind of player he is. So they lean in on the newer brighter could be in Campusano.
And it’s that type of production that might get him say a 2/20 ish contract from a catcher needy team and Padres need that money for SP and a RF (Lee) so they can shift Tatis to CF.
Unless the Padres are willing to back the Brinks truck up for this guy, he’s leaving so I’d assume they should be trading Soto.
Looking forward to the article that says the Padres plan to sign Cody Bellinger for 14 years and $320 million.
As a padres fan – I’m not!
Soto feels like another potential Correa/Juan Gonzalez situation where he turned down or couldn’t fully secure BIG money and will get medium small money because his average production isn’t anywhere near where he assumed his ceiling would be to get the biggest money possible.
I could see Soto sign for 15 years/$500M but even that would rank him at a medium AAV for superstars *today*, despite being the largest guarantee ever.
But anybody signing him for more than $40M a year through his late 30’s is agreeing to a bloated deal- and that’s what he will want.
I am guessing he wants 10 years/$475M w/ an additional 5 years/$125M for 15 years/$600M. A 15 year contract with a back end extension already baked in past his prime that would be the equivalent of around $12.5M AAV for a veteran in today’s market.
Whoever gives this to him will regret the back third to half of this deal.
I wonder what $40 mil/ yr will be worth in 2035?
Yeah, hard to predict inflation- also, a lot of these long term deals are structured with a static annual salary *because* inflation makes the salary cheaper over time. So a $40M AAV over 10 years is more affordable past about year 4 or 5 and by the last 4-5 years it’s a bargain compared to similarly valued players getting $45M or $50M a year as the new going rate.
Also it took a while for the league in general to catch up to A-Rod’s $25.2M AAV from his original deal with the Rangers. I forget exactly how long, but it took a truly long while and we’re still not truly caught up.
It’s taken about this long for $32-$36M a year to become the norm for superstars, It has in fact become standard to sign guys to those deals for 8-12 years at a time at around $33M a year and the new normal is closer to $40M a year.
But to put this in perspective: Alex Rodriguez’s $25.2M Average Annual Value from December 2000 when he signed that extension, would be $44.5M Average Annual Value *today*, so current mega deals are still behind the pace of inflation comparatively and basically nobody comes close to that, unless you count short term deals like Scherzer’s and Verlander’s. Judge is the guy who comes closest and he’s still short by $4.5M a season, or by nearly 9% a year.
So, it’s hard to tell where the trends will go and how quickly or slowly it will take to get there.
The thing is, baseball players have an internal mandate with each other that every new free agent class try to push the salaries up every single year. What was $1M last year should try to be pushed up to $1.25M to $2M the next year.
But that’s with guys like Judge, who risked going year to year, risked playing beyond injury lost seasons here and there, etc. but then you’ve got guys like Corbin Carroll, who take a massively team friendly extension early in their career because for them any amount in the tens upon tens of millions is plenty of money, they probably are also convinced to take a slightly under market deal for their teams and they don’t have the track record to argue for more than they’re getting and they aren’t certain they’d break the bank comparatively across the time and risk factors you have to traverse to get to free agency and then argue for whatever the equivalent to a $40M a year salary would be for them.
Plus a guy like Carroll signed a deal that sets him for life and he can still re-up for 5-10 years at whatever the going rate would be at that point- probably a low end of $40M a year and a high end of $60M a year, so he’s not really losing out.
I cannot see Soto earning 40 million. Judge earned a 40 million AAV but that came off an epic, 10+ WAR season and playing a well above average centerfield. The only question with Judge related to his ability to stay on the field.
Soto is a fantastic hitter, similar to Judge without the extreme upside in power, but doesn’t come close to Judges defensive value. I’m Soto, you’re looking at a guy who most likely will be forced into a DH role sooner rather than later or a team will be forced to suffer his poor defense.
I’m not sure how many of his 106 games he was only the DH but I believe that with his size, age and inability to be on the field recently due to injury that Judge will be a DH before a 24 year old Soto will be. His size and age are going to start catching up to him even if you believe that his injury was a freakish thing that is the sole reason for his missing games in CF.
At the current rate of inflation about $27 million.
1-Without knowing what the payroll will be (and Acee has disqualified himself), speculation about Sosa is pointless.
2-That said, it feels crazy to invest so much money, in so many long-term contracts (~ $142M for 7 players) to pull back in 2024.
3-Developing players has never been an issue for Preller, so I fail to see why he would be interested in acquiring more.
I’d make a serious wager that he is not traded until at least the deadline.
I’d wager further that the team won’t be out of contention at the deadline and that he won’t be traded at all.
Unless in the unlikely event that Acee is right about the payroll, and Seidler resets, then I would be shocked if the Padres weren’t at least contending for a WC. In fact, I’d wager that they’ll be in the playoffs next year.
I just don’t see a payroll reset coming this year.
Yankees should send Greg Bird and Miguel “Rookie of the Year Runner Up” Andujar for Juan Soto.
They could throw in Clint “Jackson” Frazier to sweeten the deal
The massive contracts the Padres have on the books to players over 30 means that the team is going to be getting worse not better over the next decade.
Thus I think they should keep Soto, you sold your soul to win now, so do it. Because the back end of the deals is going to suck with or without Soto or a ring from 2024
The pending loss of Soto and Snell while being crippled with the Bogaerts and Darvish contracts is a perfect example of why this front office sucks so bad. It’s like 4 levels beyond bad planning.
Tatis and Soto 24 years old, Campusano young, 5 top 100 guys on the farm including 2 stud pitchers…… I think they’re fine, not getting worse.
Campy is 24 as well. The farm is starting. To mature and will start being a force by as soon as next year.
Ask Boston if they miss Mookie
Juan Soto is great but he’s already a DH. Boras is going to try and spin it because that’s his job but anyone paying this guy as anything other then a DH is going to be disappointed.
I’d like to see a team like St. Louis, Pittsburgh or Detroit take a whack at dealing for Soto if they don’t have to destroy the farm in doing so. Juan alone could add enough fuel to the tank to get the Bucs or Tiggers into post-season.
While each of those 3 would match up well, remember..it’d take guys like Carpenter (Det), Walker (St Louis), etc, to even get the deal started, as the Padres will want young, controllable MLB talent plus prospects for him. The question is, would any of the teams you mentioned be willing to do that? Because you know Soto’s getting 500m+ in free agency, which cuts them out of the bidding to retain him.
Juan alone could add enough fuel to the tank to get the Bucs or Tiggers into post-season.
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Unlikely. Over the past five years, Soto is a 5.1 bWAR player (and 5.8/650 PAs). That’s very good, but it is not unique. Both teams need more than one player.
It’s simple. You say he’s available for the right price. You give it 30 days. You take the best deal available.
Nobody can tell me that teams like Boston, the NY teams, Texas, and probably a few more wouldn’t still be willing to give up at least 3-4 young mlb guys/a top 50 prospect or two for a year of Soto with the possibility of re-signing him.
Also, the Pads should try and deal Grisham and Cronenworth..either as part of the same deal, or separately.
Guerrero Jr. for Soto….Toronto gets cash too !!
Losing close games and extra innings games is not about luck. It is about having the desire to win. It is about doing your best when the game is on the line. Who cares if you keep hitting homers when you are leading 8-1. What really matters is what you do when the score is 1-1 in the 9th. The Padres just simply didn’t have the cojones to hit when it really counted.
It’s really bizarre that they went from the best record in 1 run games in 2022 to the worst in 2023.
1 run games can vary from year to year. If you were first or last in quest you can all but guarantee you will be better or worse the next year. Too much luck involved in baseball.
Fluctuations from year to year are a given. I still think it’s strange that a team went from the best record in 1 run games to one of the all time worst in history the following year. Add in having a better team only makes it that much nuttier.
To do that while having Soto and Hader for a full year and adding Tatis and Boegarts…. just bizarre!!
Different year, different attitude.
Won’t you please give generously to help this overspending team
Spend even more for a .500 record?
I would extend him. I think cutting payroll would really suck, I think this team can definitely make a great run next year at a playoff spot.
#4. Extend Soto and not lower payroll. From their owners comments and the news that the San Diego writer was wrong about debt service I think they will extend both Soto and Kim and do pretty much what they started out to do in 2023.
Brian Cashman should have allocated the money on a younger and more all around better player like Soto instead of spending over 350m and signing an injury-prone player who plays 50 games a year and is already 32
The Padres gave up their entire farm for Soto so they are pot committed to keeping him for the remainder of his arb years at least. Soto was never signing any extension with any team but they knew that when they traded for him. This isn’t news to A. J. Preller. An extension won’t matter if they win the WS in 2024 and it’s not like the Padres don’t plan to try to do that.
If they trade Soto this offseason then the first Soto trade is automatically in the Kemp/Myers/Upton tier among bad Preller trades. And I am not interested in listening to your prognostication about how “They can trade Soto for something that will help them more in 2024 than Soto will.”
When they made the trade I don’t think the Pads thought they had a high probability to extend him beyond 2024, so they’re probably also prepared to wish him well after next season. Has a Boras player ever agreed to an extension rather than compete for highest bid in FA?
They gave up a lot of talent (especially Woods), but the farm is looking very good again, both top 100 and deeper
Boras players have signed extensions but typically not ones who are on track to reach FA at age 26 and sign a contract worth in excess of $400m and usually they are players who have spent their entire careers with just one team. I’m generally opposed to the idea of trading for a player to “gain the inside track on an extension” because 1. There is no evidence that trading for him gives you any inside track and 2. The prospects it would cost to trade for him are worth more than the potential cash savings. Abrams et al were worth $143.5m on BTV the day Soto was traded so that is how much of a discount Soto would have to take to make the trade worth it. Unless of course the Padres win the 2024 WS with Soto in which case that is all that matters.
Assuming they won’t trade him within their division, I’m trying to envision a destination for trade with a team most likely to extend him. That’s a mighty short list. Yankees, Mets, and maybe Mariners. Who else could conceivably do that?
Rangers
As has been said before, I don’t think trading for Soto has extending him in mind. If he was going to sign an extension it would have been with the Nats or Padres.
hiflew
Losing close games and extra innings games is not about luck. It is about having the desire to win.
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In 2022, the SDP were 30-17 in one-run games, and 12-5 in extra innings. So by your hypothesis, they had a huge desire to win in 2022, and no desire to win in 2023, even though the roster was almost identical?
“Unlikely as an extension may seem” is not proper grammar. It needs to start with the word “as.” You did this earlier in the article, how did you screw it up again?
If the Padres were interested in trading Soto, then the Jays would probably be interested. I could see a trade between the two orgs where Soto and Guerrero would be centerpieces. Soto has 1yr left, Guerrero has 2yr left. Both ultra talented but Vlad probably needs a change of venue to reach his best self. Padres could get a Gold Glove 1b with the potential of 40+ homers while surrounded by players like Machado, Tatis and others who can take the pressure off him of being ‘the Man’ for the Jays. Soto fills a need for left hand power bat in the middle of the lineup behind Springer and Bichette. Win-win for both in a way.
Problem with vlad is as you say 40 homer potential but didn’t produce it or worse they would even consider this trade.
The bigger issues outside of value is the padres need lefty handed bats. The already have Kim, Xander, manny and tatis from the right side. Even Campusano. This would leave with cronenworth for the left side and that’s about it.
Yanks – you talking about Judge or Stanton? I tbink each played a little over 100 games but if Stanton, he is actually turning 34 next month! If you meant Judge, ok but don’t forget to also throw Stanton in your Cashman fire too!
I want to see AJ Preller work his magic and continue to ruin the padres. Give Preller an extension while they’re at it
Just got a new deal last year
Dodgers gonna be stacked with Ohtani & Soto added to their roster.
And they would win the division again – only to be knocked out in the first round, again by a WC team.
@Longtimecoming
Hey! I never said they were going to win the championship. I just said they would be stacked.
Ok. We Padres fans said that 6 months ago!
Soto for Glasnow.
Padres get a SP.
Rays get a impact bat (if only for 1 year).
Baseball Reference says Glasnow is set to make 25 mil in 2024 and a free agent. He made 21
Starts at pretty good results.
I like TG but no, that is a hard pass on a straight up trade for Soto at only 8 mil more and 140 more games.
Glasnow doesn’t have that type of value. I like him, even at $25M, but the chances of him having the same WAR as Soto is slim. It is slightly possible that Soto’s 2024 WAR could equal Glasnow’s current career WAR.
Glasnow with his injury history coming off a good but not great year earning 25m would be lucky to get a top 100 guy at all.
I see the Angels making a “big” move after (or before) Ohtani signs elsewhere. Originally, I was thinking Urias but now career over. So maybe Soto to appease the fans and season ticket holders ? But I don’t know what they would send to San Diego as their farm system is not highly ranked.
Will be a fun and interesting off season for the Pads. The third WC is pretty low hanging fruit and well within reach in ’24. They need bounceback seasons from Musgrove, Darvish, Manny, and Bogarts. Most definitely need Soto as well. Kim has been replaced at his best position for better or worse so trading him for a SP is their best option. You trade where you have position surplus and the Pads have SS up the yang. Elite SS like Kim are in high demand.
Musgrove was performing like an all star before the injury, the other three guys that you mention are definitely needing to bouceback to something resembling their career norms. But no one player needs a bounce back more than Cronenworth. He’s got to hit as a first basemen.
Darvish had a tough year, but his underlying metrics were decent, so a bit of bad fortune, plus it seems he was pitching through the injury for a while. Do you know how serious the injury is? If not too bad, I could see him bouncing back for sure,
@Ma4170 The news on Darvish has been scant. He was shut down due to “olecranon stress reaction” which is developing a stress fracture at the tip of the elbow. Docs say with rest he’ll be ready for April, but at his age there’s probably reason for concern.
Just a technicality, everyone talk about Bogaerts, but you do realize that other than a slightly lower avg and rbi, everything else was at his career norm, including a war above 4, which 4-5 is generally considered all star level, right?
Unfortunately, Bogaerts was very inconsistent – basically a great April and September and the rest was not good at all.
he finished strong after his injury subsided. Hopefully he’ll be healthy moving forward and put up career numbers next year.
Trade him in off-season. He will not sign an extension unless it’s nutty. Team will give up more if they know they can extend a qualifying offer. He’s a great player but long term outlook is better to bring in a few stud prospects
Soto would look real good in Jays blue hitting between Bo and Vlad
Empty the farm for him and get your coveted LHH middle of the order bat.
Probably the best one to boot
Moving him this offseason is likely the Pads best move.
I don’t blame ownership for wanting to trim payroll, this franchise has long operated with a mid-level payroll, and to spend $250M+ needed to see consistent playoff revenues to maintain it.
Guys like Xander and others would bring the team back prospect/draft capital, but likely not at the level that Soto will.
How is it the best move when they gave up Abrams, Gore and Wood to get him? They trade Soto and they gave up those guys for basically nothing.
You are stuck on who they gave up for him. That is in the past and will and shouldn’t have any barring on what you do going forward.
Padres would t get those exact players back. Maybe they get two or three highly rated prospects. The thing is you don’t know how the nats return will turn out and if the padres traded Soto you don’t know how those players would turn out. The padres could trade Soto and get two guys that becom studs or duds. Nats guys could become studs or duds.
Quit saying what they traded for Soto. It was a lot and on paper they will never get that back. It won’t be part of the decision whether the padres decide to trade him or not. Preller has made plenty of trades good and bad and it doesn’t stop him from pulling the trigger again.
You do that and the first Soto trade automatically becomes the worst trade of the entire Preller era. There are only 2 reasons to trade for a player: 1. To use him or 2. To flip him for more later on. There was no reason to trade for Soto if you’re just going to flip him for 50 cents on the dollar a year later.
100% agree with you Simm
1988 Draft, Andy Benes goes 1st overall, Mike Piazza goes last. Which would you rather have.
Jays trade away a very highly touted Jeff Hoffman for Tulo in 2016. Eight years into his career and Hoff is averaging 50 innings a season, going 20-23 and a 5.28 ERA.
There have been 1,000 can’t miss prospects that have missed, and a 1,000 guys who no one expected would make it to the majors that have had good careers. Baseball is by far the most difficult sport to accurately project a prospect’s future. That is why you give up three top prospects for Soto, and it’s why another team will as well, especially when Soto has continued to perform at a high level. There aren’t many guys in the league that hit for power and walk more than they strikeout.
No one is giving up three top prospects for one year of Soto. And if they’re gonna bust anyway as you say why would the Padres want to trade Soto for them in the first place?
SD has to restructure regardless. Get young players that fit the strategy & contribute. Soto would prob go to a “contender” for a bit less than $440M w 7 yrs. Might even be in on a 3 way team trade! Teams might be: Yankees, O’s, Boston, Cards.
Having seen Soto @ NATS Park a bunch, he’s a game changer.
I remember when batting .275 was just acceptable +. Batting under that by much got a player replaced.
.290 – .300 was what a star batted. Superstars batted .300+.
Now they expect $25-$30M.
Hope I win the powerball so.I can afford.the hotdogs….
1000% agreed!