While the offseason has gotten rolling, trade season hasn’t quite arrived. The Tigers acquired Mark Canha from Milwaukee in the biggest swap of the first couple weeks. Otherwise, the GM Meetings simply served to set the stage for future transactions.
That’ll surely involve some notable trades. Unlike the summer deadline, projecting which players will change hands is difficult at this stage of the offseason. Aside from the A’s, there aren’t any teams clearly in rebuild mode. Clubs like the Rockies, Royals, White Sox, Nationals and Angels have uphill paths to contention, yet none has indicated they’re prepared to punt on the 2024 season entirely.
The Padres, Twins, Rays, Brewers and Guardians are all aiming to contend but have questions about their payroll. That’s standard operating procedure for Tampa Bay, Milwaukee and Cleveland. San Diego and, to a lesser extent, Minnesota have shown a willingness to spend in recent years but are scaling back — in both cases, likely tied to their uncertain local television rights contracts.
That informs the offseason trade landscape, which is headlined by a few stars deep into their arbitration windows. Without many clear rebuilders, it’s possible we see more swaps of big leaguers at positions of need between teams that expect to compete.
Before we get to the list, a note on methodology. This isn’t a strict ranking of players’ trade value, nor is it solely about likelihood of being moved. We’re trying to balance both of those things, an inherently subjective exercise. All projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
1. Juan Soto, LF, Padres
Other than Shohei Ohtani’s free agency, there may be no bigger story of the offseason than Soto’s future in San Diego. He is entering his final year of club control, projected for a $33MM salary that would be the highest ever for an arbitration-eligible player. The Padres are scaling back payroll, perhaps as much as $50MM. They need multiple starting pitchers and could stand to upgrade at first base and/or designated hitter.
Trading Soto would allow the Friars to recoup MLB-ready talent while clearing significant spending room for multiple smaller additions. It would also be a devastating blow to the lineup. Soto overcame a relatively slow start (by his standards) to hit .275/.410/.519 with 35 home runs this year. The Padres are still motivated to win in the short term. Barring what would be a stunning run at Ohtani, they’re not going to acquire anyone better than Soto.
President of baseball operations A.J. Preller continues to maintain they’ll explore a long-term deal. There’s nothing to suggest an extension is particularly likely. Soto rejected a $440MM offer from the Nationals before he was traded at the 2022 deadline. The price would only be higher now that he’s a year and a half closer to free agency. In the absence of an extension or a definitive declaration that Soto is off the trade market, speculation will linger. Alden González of ESPN wrote last week that many throughout the industry believe the three-time All-Star will be available.
2. Corbin Burnes, SP, Brewers
3. Willy Adames, SS, Brewers
Burnes and Adames are tied together with good reason. They’re each one year from the open market and projected for a noteworthy arbitration salary — $15.1MM for Burnes, $12.4MM for Adames. Milwaukee is reportedly open to offers on the majority of the roster.
A former Cy Young winner, Burnes may be the best pitcher available in trade. The right-hander posted a sub-3.00 ERA each season from 2020-22. His 3.39 mark across 193 2/3 innings this past season wasn’t quite so dominant but is still high-end production. Burnes struck out just under 26% of opposing hitters. While his lowest mark since his rookie season, that’s still an above-average figure.
Adames is coming off a less impressive year. The 28-year-old hit .217/.310/.407 through 638 trips to the plate. That’s slightly below-average offense, although he still connected on 24 home runs. Adames is an excellent defensive shortstop with plus power in an offseason where there are essentially no free agent shortstops of note. Even with a mediocre on-base percentage, he’d generate plenty of interest.
4. Shane Bieber, SP, Guardians
Develop high-end starting pitching, trade a top starter as they become more expensive, replace him with talented younger arms. The Guardians have trodden this path with Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco. Bieber, one year from free agency with a projected $12.2MM salary, could be next.
Cleveland has the likes of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill (himself a potential trade candidate) as rotation options. While Bieber is no longer a Cy Young caliber pitcher, he turned in a 3.80 ERA with a below-average but serviceable 20.1% strikeout rate over 21 starts this past season. Bieber lost a good chunk of the second half to elbow inflammation but returned to make two appearances in late September.
5. Tyler Glasnow, SP, Rays
The Rays signed Glasnow to an extension in August 2022 when he was completing his rehab from Tommy John surgery. The big right-hander is set to make $25MM next season, the largest single-year salary in franchise history. That naturally leads to questions about whether the Rays are prepared to meet that figure, particularly in an offseason where they have a loaded arbitration class.
If they made him available — and he’s already surfaced in rumors — Glasnow would be a very appealing target. He was quite good this year, working to a 3.53 ERA while striking out more than a third of opponents over 21 starts. An oblique strain cost him the first two months of the season, but he avoided the injured list thereafter. He’s a year away from free agency, making another extension with Tampa Bay appear unlikely. Yet dealing him would represent a tough blow to the Rays’ chances of competing in 2024. They’re already down Shane McClanahan for the entire season and will be without Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen for at least a good portion of the year. While they’d likely bring back some kind of MLB help as part of a Glasnow trade return, the rotation depth could be a problem.
6. Dylan Cease, SP, White Sox
Cease had a disappointing follow-up to his Cy Young runner-up campaign. He allowed a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings this past season. That’s nearly two and a half runs higher than his sparkling 2.20 mark of the prior year. As is often the case, his true talent probably lies somewhere in the middle. Cease still missed plenty of bats — 27.3% strikeout rate, 13.6% swinging strike percentage — while issuing a few more walks than ideal. His fastball averaged 95.6 MPH, down a tick from the preceding season.
The right-hander has shown the ability to pitch at an ace-caliber level. He is two seasons from free agency and projected for an $8.8MM arbitration salary, making him more affordable than the other high-end starting pitchers near the top of this list. The extra year of control probably gives him more trade value than any of Burnes, Bieber or Glasnow. It also makes him less likely to be traded this offseason.
First-year GM Chris Getz has suggested no one on the roster is truly untouchable, an understandable approach for a team that just lost 101 games. Neither owner Jerry Reinsdorf nor Getz has called this a rebuild, though. Any slim hopes the White Sox may have of competing in 2024 would be dashed by trading Cease, the only above-average starting pitcher on the roster.
7. Alex Verdugo, RF, Red Sox
Verdugo’s name has been floated in trade rumors for a few seasons. The Red Sox have held onto him thus far. They have a new baseball operations leader in Craig Breslow, who has acknowledged the team has gotten early calls on the left-handed hitting outfielder. Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida also hit from the left side. Dealing Verdugo could free some at-bats for a right-handed addition while perhaps bringing in immediate help for the pitching staff or at second base.
MLBTR projects Verdugo for a $9.2MM salary in his final season of arbitration. He’s coming off another league-average offensive showing, when he hit .264/.324/.421 with 13 home runs through 602 plate appearances. Verdugo hasn’t become the All-Star player the Sox envisioned when building the Mookie Betts return around him. He’s a solid regular, a high-contact hitter who rates as a decent defender in right field.
8. Trent Grisham, CF, Padres
9. Ha-Seong Kim, 2B, Padres
If the Padres hold Soto, dealing Grisham and/or Kim could be an alternative means of trimming payroll. While neither is going to make anywhere near Soto money in 2024, they’re each on mid-level salaries of note. Grisham is projected for a $4.9MM salary in his second-to-last season of arbitration. Kim is slated for an $8MM salary and will be due a $2MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option at season’s end. He’ll be a free agent next winter.
Grisham has the extra year of control but is the worse player. He draws plenty of walks but has hit below the Mendoza line in two straight seasons. He’s coming off a .198/.315/.352 line over 555 plate appearances. The appeal is on the other side of the ball. Grisham is an above-average defensive center fielder, keeping him as a low-end regular even if he’s best suited for the bottom of a lineup. San Diego could kick Fernando Tatis Jr. over to center field if they dealt Grisham, freeing right field for a bigger offensive threat than Grisham provides.
It’s a similar story with Kim. Dealing him would free Jake Cronenworth to move back to second base, opening first base for a better hitter. It’d be tough to replace Kim’s overall production, though. He’s a plus defender at multiple infield spots. He hit .260/.351/.398 with 17 home runs and stole 38 bases in 152 games. Trading Kim isn’t as damaging to the lineup as a Soto deal would be, but it’d be tougher than parting with Grisham.
10. Gleyber Torres, 2B, Yankees
Another player one year from free agency, Torres is projected for a $15.3MM salary in his last arbitration season. That’s below his market value but a notable figure for a bat-first second baseman — a general profile that the league has devalued in recent years. Torres was New York’s second-best offensive player in 2023, hitting .273/.347/.453 with 25 homers through 672 trips to the plate.
Even if they’re not interested in an extension, New York could hold Torres for his final season of club control. They’re already light on consistent hitting beyond Aaron Judge. On the surface, trading their second-best hitter seems counterintuitive. The big question is whether the front office believes Oswald Peraza is capable of stepping into an everyday second base role in 2024. If they feel the 23-year-old is ready, trading Torres to clear spending room while bringing back outfield or pitching help makes sense.
11. Jonathan India, 2B, Reds
The Reds’ infield surplus has fueled trade speculation on India back to the deadline. Cincinnati didn’t seem inclined to make that move midseason, pointing to India’s role as a clubhouse leader. While that’s certainly still a factor, he didn’t hit well down the stretch and finished the year with a middling .244/.338/.407 batting line. He’s a well below-average keystone defender.
There’s an argument the Reds are better off relying on an up-the-middle tandem of Matt McLain and either Noelvi Marte or Elly De La Cruz. Perhaps the offseason is a better time to consider moving India for a back-end starter. The former Rookie of the Year is projected for a $3.7MM salary and has three seasons of remaining arbitration control.
12. Eloy Jiménez, DH, White Sox
Jiménez no longer looks like a core piece for the White Sox. Various injuries have kept him off the field throughout his big league tenure. He only has two seasons of 100+ games and hasn’t gotten to 500 plate appearances since his 2019 rookie year. Jiménez was still an excellent hitter when healthy as recently as 2022, when he ran a .295/.358/.500 line over 84 games. His production fell this year, as he posted a .272/.317/.441 slash with 18 homers over 489 trips to the dish.
That’s not especially imposing for a player who’s best suited at DH. Yet Jiménez has shown greater offensive upside that isn’t matched by many in this winter’s free agent class. If the Sox are prepared to move on, another team could look to buy low. He’ll make a $13MM salary next year, the final guaranteed season of his contract. He’s guaranteed a $3MM buyout on a $16.5MM club option for 2025 and the deal contains an $18.5MM team option for the ’26 campaign.
13. Max Kepler, RF, Twins
14. Jorge Polanco, 2B, Twins
Minnesota president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has confirmed the team is paring back payroll. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported the organization could end in the $125-140MM range. At the moment, they have around $120MM in projected spending.
The Twins have a few ways to clear room. Trading either Kepler or Polanco would accomplish that. The former is making $10MM, while the latter is playing on a $10.5MM deal. Kepler will be a free agent after next season; Polanco’s contract has a $12.5MM team option for 2025 that comes with a $750K buyout.
They’re each good players. Kepler is a plus defender in right field who hit .260/.332/.484 with 24 homers this year. Polanco was limited to 80 games but ran a .255/.335/.454 showing. He’s one of the sport’s better offensive second basemen and saw some third base action for Minnesota late in the year. The Twins have Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach as left-handed hitting corner outfield options. They’re deeper on the infield, where Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer (another trade candidate) are possibilities at second/third base behind starters Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis. Top prospect Brooks Lee, the No. 8 overall pick in 2022, isn’t far from MLB readiness. The Twins could look to move Kepler or Polanco for rotation depth or to bring in a righty bat to balance the lineup.
15. Randy Arozarena, LF, Rays
Arozarena hasn’t been the subject of the same level of trade speculation as Glasnow has. There’s an argument the Rays should be more willing to move the All-Star outfielder if they’re looking to create payroll room. Tampa Bay has greater depth in the outfield than they do on their injury-riddled pitching staff. Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Harold Ramírez, Luke Raley and Manuel Margot are all on hand. (Margot has come up in trade rumors as well.)
None of those players is as good as Arozarena. Trading star players for younger talent is familiar territory for the Tampa Bay front office though. Arozarena is projected for a $9MM arbitration salary and controllable for three seasons. He’d have significant trade value if the Rays were to consider moving him.
16. Mariners SP
We initially had Bryan Woo in this spot. It could just as easily have been Bryce Miller or Emerson Hancock, so we’ll cheat and just mention the Seattle rotation in general. They’re almost certainly not going to trade George Kirby. It’d take a lot to pry away Logan Gilbert. Moving any of Woo, Miller or Hancock could be more appealing for a front office that is looking for ways to add long-term offensive upside.
None of that trio has even reached one year of major league service. Hancock only has three big league starts under his belt. Miller and Woo spent more time in the rotation this year, starting 25 and 18 games respectively. They both turned in mid-rotation results. Other clubs probably have differing opinions on which right-hander they prefer. (The Mariners likely have their own slight preferences.) They’d all have significant value if president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto decided to move one for a bat.
17. Dylan Carlson, CF, Cardinals
It was a bit of a surprise that Carlson didn’t change hands over the summer. Various reports suggested the Cards were making him available as they looked for ways to add a controllable starter. It didn’t happen, but the same logic applies this winter.
Carlson has been surpassed by Lars Nootbaar as the starting center fielder. St. Louis needs multiple starting pitchers and will likely bring in at least one via trade. Carlson probably has less value than he did before the deadline. Not only did he finish with a mediocre .219/.318/.333 batting line, he underwent season-ending surgery on his left ankle in September. There’d nevertheless be teams willing to take a shot on a former top prospect who looked like an average or better center fielder 12 months ago. Carlson is projected for a modest $1.8MM salary and has three years of arbitration control.
18. Paul Blackburn, SP, A’s
Blackburn is arguably the most desirable realistic trade candidate on the Oakland roster. The A’s have torn things to the studs. They’re unlikely to compete within the two remaining years of Blackburn’s arbitration window. The right-hander (30 next month) worked to a 4.43 ERA with a decent 22.4% strikeout rate over 103 2/3 innings this past season. He’s projected for a $3.2MM salary. A Blackburn trade isn’t going to be an offseason defining move, but he has a good chance to be flipped to a contender seeking affordable back-end starting pitching.
19. Alek Manoah, SP, Blue Jays
Perhaps no player had a more disappointing 2023 performance than Manoah. Within one season, he went from Cy Young finalist to essentially unplayable. The right-hander pitched to a 5.87 ERA over 19 big league outings. His walks more than doubled while his strikeouts fell from 22.9% to a modest 19% clip. He lost his spot in the Toronto rotation and was eventually demoted to the minors. Manoah never pitched in Triple-A and received an injection in his throwing shoulder at the end of the season.
How will the Jays proceed after that disastrous year? General manager Ross Atkins said last week the team would give him “a strong leg up” on the #5 spot in the rotation. The Jays aren’t broadcasting a desire to trade him, although they wouldn’t be doing themselves any favors if they declared they were ready to move on. Dealing Manoah to bring in a lower upside but higher floor pitcher wouldn’t be a surprise with the Jays firmly in win-now mode. The former first-round pick is controllable for four more seasons and won’t reach arbitration until next winter.
20. Brandon Drury, 2B, Angels
The Halos signed Drury to a two-year free agent deal last winter. The righty-hitting infielder turned in a nice season, connecting on 26 home runs with a .262/.306/.497 line across 523 plate appearances. Next year’s $8.5MM salary looks like strong value, particularly in an offseason where the supply of up-the-middle players is thin. The Angels probably aren’t kicking off a rebuild. They could do a shorter-term retool if Ohtani walks, or they could simply look to move Drury for pitching while turning second base to Luis Rengifo and/or an external acquisition.
21. Brendan Donovan, 2B, Cardinals
Donovan is a longer shot trade possibility if the Cards move a controllable hitter for starting pitching. He’s more valuable than Carlson and less likely to be on the move. At the same time, he’d net a clearer rotation upgrade if St. Louis were to give him up — likely turning the middle infield over to a combination of Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman and Masyn Winn in that scenario.
The 26-year-old hit .284/.365/.422 with 11 homers through 371 plate appearances this past season. A flexor tendon injury pushed him to designated hitter and eventually required surgery that ended his year a couple months early. He’s expected back for Spring Training. If healthy, Donovan brings excellent contact skills and a solid plate approach. He’s a multi-positional defender who can play any of the corners in addition to second base. Donovan has four years of remaining control and won’t get to arbitration until next offseason.
22. Christopher Morel, DH, Cubs
Morel is likely to be a divisive player around the league. He has huge raw power and connected on 26 home runs while slugging .508 in 107 games for the Cubs. The right-handed hitter owns a .241/.311/.471 line in just over 850 MLB plate appearances over the past two seasons. When he’s hot, he can carry a lineup.
He also strikes out more than 30% of the time and doesn’t have a defensive fit. Morel has played all three outfield spots and each of second base, third base and shortstop in the majors. He hasn’t rated well anywhere. The Cubs used him mostly at designated hitter this year and have suggested they’ll get him first base run in 2024. That’s not a great fit for a plus runner with top-of-the-scale arm strength, yet Morel hasn’t shown himself capable of handling more important positions on a regular basis.
How teams project Morel defensively could impact both whether he’s traded and what kind of return the Cubs could receive. As a first baseman or DH, he’s a fringe regular with a statistical profile that’d paint him as a lumbering slugger as opposed to a dynamic athlete. If another team feels he can hold his own at second base or in center field, he becomes far more desirable. The Cubs have no urgency to trade him. Morel is controllable through 2028 and won’t reach arbitration for at least another season. Yet president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has alluded to the possibility of a deal, saying last week that “another team might be able to put him [at second base],” where the Cubs have Nico Hoerner.
23. Christian Vázquez, C, Twins
Trading Vázquez is another route Minnesota could consider to clear money. The Twins signed the veteran catcher to a three-year, $30MM free agent deal last offseason. He had a tough first season in Minneapolis, limping to a .223/.280/.318 line over 355 plate appearances — albeit with his typical brand of excellent defense. Ryan Jeffers easily surpassed him as the #1 option on the depth chart. A $10MM per year backup catcher is a luxury for a team trying to trim salary.
Minnesota likely wouldn’t be able to offload the entire deal, but they could try to shed around half the money or take on a smaller contract in return. Vázquez’s year wasn’t much worse than a season that got Omar Narváez two years and $15MM last winter, while Tucker Barnhart secured a two-year, $6.5MM guarantee despite a much lesser offensive track record.
24. Luis Robert Jr., CF, White Sox
Robert has the most trade value of any player on this list. He may also be the least likely to move. Last week, Getz called him a franchise building block and noted he had no plans to proactively shop Robert even as he left open the possibility of listening to offers on anyone.
It’s not hard to understand why. Robert’s an elite defensive center fielder who connected on 38 home runs while hitting .264/.315/.542. It was the first time he stayed healthy for a 162-game schedule. The result was a season that’ll get him down-ballot MVP support. Robert is a prime-aged superstar and, unlike Soto or Burnes, he’s nowhere near free agency. He’ll make $12.5MM next year, $15MM in 2025 and is controllable via $20MM team options for 2026-27. Trading Robert would signify a complete teardown that the Sox probably don’t want. Yet the haul would be astronomical if they decided to go in that direction.
25. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets
Alonso was the subject of early offseason trade speculation. With the Mets projecting a less active offseason and placing a priority on 2025, it wasn’t out of the question he could be available. Alonso is projected for a $22MM arbitration salary and will be a free agent after next year.
New York has subsequently walked back some of their statements about a possible retool. They’re still aiming to compete in ’24 even if they’re signaling they won’t blow away the top of the free agent market. First-year president of baseball operations David Stearns has twice publicly said he anticipates Alonso being the Opening Day first baseman in Queens. That won’t stop teams from trying, but an offseason deal looks decidedly unlikely.
Others Of Note
A’s: Seth Brown
Braves: Vaughn Grissom
Brewers: Adrian Houser, Devin Williams, Brandon Woodruff
Cardinals: Alec Burleson, Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman, Tyler O’Neill
Giants: J.D. Davis, Mike Yastrzemski
Guardians: Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill
Mariners: Ty France
Marlins: Josh Bell
Mets: Jeff McNeil
Nationals: Hunter Harvey, Lane Thomas
Orioles: Anthony Santander
Padres: Scott Barlow
Phillies: Nick Castellanos
Rays: Manuel Margot, Harold Ramírez
Red Sox: Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Nick Pivetta
Rockies: Brendan Rodgers
Royals: Salvador Perez
Tigers: Spencer Turnbull
Twins: Kyle Farmer
@Anthony Franco, I don’t see how the guardians would trade Josh Naylor. He is just too important and with his brother there they can really build something special together at a pretty cheap price. I really hope you are wrong on this one.
What do you think the Guardians would want for Bieber?
My guess is that they would want teams to treat him as though he is not injured and is ready to be the Bieber he was before he got hurt. That is to say, a LOT. (A starting controllable bat or a top 100 hitting prospect plus several really good prospects is my guess.) I’m thinking that teams aren’t ready to do that, so he probably starts the year with Cleveland.
I heard from Cleveland media that for Quantrill they are using the Civale trade as a starting point, so they are looking for a top 100 prospect for him. That sounds a little steep to me, but I never thought they could get Manzardo for Civale and the pitching market is crazy this winter, so who knows.
Civale was pitching great at the time he was traded. Quantrill would need to bounce back to form. If that’s the teams expectations then they might as well hold on to Quantrill but if he doesn’t bounce back he’s a non tender candidate next year.
Bieber I don’t see how it makes sense to hold on to him and trade him mid season. His value will be lower and the Indians dont appear to have a top prospect ready to take his place those guys all showed up in 2023. Seems like the Guardians would and should deal him before the season starts.
I think the idea is that they can offer him the qualifying offer and get a supplemental pick, so they need to get significantly more than that before they pull the trigger. This assumes that he remains healthy, of course.
I am sure they can get more than what a supplemental pick is worth for him. And they also wouldn’t have to pay Bieber which is important because the Guardians are a bit cheap.
I think Dylan Carlson is a good fit for the Guardians. He can play right field and some center and that appears to be a need for the Guardians. I think a package starting with Carlson would make sense for both sides.
The problem with Carlson is that he is often injured. He is also overrated in my opinion.
Bieber is coming off a big injury himself. I don’t think Carlson is all that great but he’s solid of he’s healthy. And he has 3 years of control left too. And again I think you could add to the deal he would be the main piece though. Who is overrating Carlson? He’s a high floor low ceiling guy coming off injuries. That’s who he is.
This was my idea that I suggested for your guys during the live chat last week!. So glad you guys did it such a great read
Ramos – I saw that, congrats!
Some of the names that were added to the end of the article don’t really make sense though.
Like Martin & Jansen, the Sox are planning to compete for the playoffs next year so why would they trade either pitcher now? Unless they sign Hader, which I just don’t see happening.
I do see Pivetta as a trade possibility if they don’t come to an agreement on a contract extension soon. I hope they can extend him, I like having him on the team.
I would keep Martin because I don’t think he is easily replaceable and I don’t think we’d get back fair value for what he supplies.
Pivetta has to be kept because of Sale. #6/LR is so generalized now that it is meaningless, but he might be the best real #6 in BB He flips between the BP and starting effortlessly.
But I would look at trading Jansen. He’s good, but not great, and at $16M, that’s about 2/3rds of Yamamoto’s salary. But that would require making either Houck or Whitlock the closer.
Joe – Agree on Martin, he was sensational this year.
Hope Pivetta stays as long as he doesn’t demand an outrageous amount.. One thing he doesn’t get enough credit for is his durability, I don’t believe he’s ever been injured during his entire MLB career. He’s basically the new Derek Lowe.
Breslow isn’t prepared to make Houck the closer yet, his role depends on how the starting rotation shapes up. With Whitlock it won’t happen and shouldn’t happen. Kenley had a really bad second half, couldn’t stay healthy and wasn’t effective. For the season he had his highest WHIP of his career. He’ll be 36 next year, I wouldn’t mind letting him go as long as there’s a suitable replacement for him in the pen. Money is not an issue, it’s his final year on the contract and I think Henry’s wallet will be wide open this offseason.
Money is not an issue
=========================
This is America. Money is always an issue.
This is 100% judgement call by experts to see if Houck or Whitlock are closing candidates. But Jansen + Verdugo trade(s) = Yamamoto.for salary purposes.
Lets blow up your article.
Soto won’t be traded. They said as much already. There is no reason from a financial standpoint, they said winning is priority in 2024 and cannot be a better team by trading Soto. So drop it. Not happening.
Grisham IS being traded. They are favorites to sign Lee and Grisham is redundant.
Kim is not being traded. Two reasons. #1 – Lee. #2 – Would be PR suicide with Korea Series
Read the rest of the article and 2/3 of the players are not on the market. Their teams have already said so.
I’d just keep in mind that General Managers aren’t known for being honest with the media and fans. Of course there are exceptions, but a lot of players have been “unavailable” prior to being dealt.
Can you share a time a GM lied straight up?
The Padres have no financial issues. Period.
Trading Soto does not make the Padres better.
Trading Kim hurts on 2 fronts so it won’t be done.
Sure. Last time Juan Soto was traded.
June 1st, 2022
Washington Nationals GM Mike Rizzo: ‘We are not trading Juan Soto’
August 2nd, 2022
Padres land Soto, Bell in blockbuster: ‘It’s going to be fun’
Can you link to the interview with the Junkies that Rizzo quote was supposedly taken from? Either can I.
Can you link to where Bryan Freedman said Lindsey Hill would be re-filing her lawsuit against Trevor Bauer because he violated the terms of the settlement and to where it says Eric Hosmer couldn’t refuse an outright assignment without forfeiting his remaining salary and to where Manny Machado said he would never sign with a New York team under any circumstances and that Eric Hosmer was the reason he signed with the Padres?
Buster olney said today he guarantees Soto will be traded. He usually doesn’t say stuff like that unless he has a good idea it is gonna happen.
Like when he bet his farm what 2-3 times now saying players were going places… like springer was going to the Mets.
The dude is out of farms he has bet and lost them so many times.
Everyone whether you believe what the padres or any other team will do this offseason needs to remember this is liar time of the year. So many things will be said and even moments before deals actually happen where people will be wrong.
Like the padres are getting sherzer from Rosenthal. While the padre said it was news to them.
The Padres borrowed to make payroll. Payroll!
They actually borrowed the money AFTER payroll 2023 was completed.
Web… You’re lost as last year’s Easter eggs.
I stopped listening to Olney years ago after he wrongly said Johan Santana would be traded to the Red Sox imminently.
— The Padres have no financial issues. Period.—
Probably not exactly true websoul. Wasn’t the Pad’s one of the teams had to take a short term loan in order to meet payroll requirements? My thoughts there are Bally, simply backing away from the media agreement last year because it paid so much for so little to Bally in return shorts the Pad’s owners 30m+ every year until something new is put into place and not requiring 29 other franchises to make up the difference, I really doubt they were paid by MLB, under the coverage last year anywhere near what they were due under Bally.. So yeah.. It’s easy to see how the team could have been very short, like by 10’s of millions.
If Olney says it, you can be pretty sure its not true. Only Nightengale is worse.
Ditto. He hasn’t been right once since then.
Didn’t the Pads have to borrow money to make payroll? That seems the opposite of “no financial issues”.
Cashman opined Bubba Crosby was the centerfielder before signing Ellsbury, as one example.
I don’t think you can post links here, but Google “Mike Rizzo Juan Soto not traded” and check out the first result.
“We are not trading Juan Soto,” Rizzo told The Sports Junkies on 106.7 The Fan. “We made it clear to his agent and to the player.”
Why do you comment as websoulsurfer and also as Pads Fans, outinleftfield and BaseballisLife?
multiple personalities??
Most of them are probably being discussed. It doesn’t a trade will happen, but I’d bet real money that Glasnow and Verdugo get traded. I’d bet that CL trades one of their pitchers. I’d bet that Grisham is gone. I’d take 2-1 on one of the MIL guys getting traded, and take 2-1 on Cease being traded.
Guys like India, Jimenez and one of the Seattle SPs make perfect sense, but that doesn’t mean they can find equivalent value.
=====
“Their teams have already said so.”
======
I don’t remember anyone but Preller saying no. It’s one of the reasons that you know they are on the block is because the GMs haven’t denied they are on the block. If Torres wasn’t on the block, Cashman would’ve already shot down the rumor. Same as Verdugo.
I remember when he was with the Nationals they said Soto wouldn’t be traded either, until he was.
How can the Padress fill out the rest of their team without trading Soto this offseason?
Seriously? What holes do the Padres need to fill that would require trading Soto?
Since they do NOT have payroll limitations, what would require trading Soto?
Kevin Acee who works for the San Diego Times said the team plans on cutting payroll by 50 million in 2024, the same amount the team had to take a loan out for in 2023.
Now who should I believe you are him?
They do have pay roll limitations. The 1st tax penalty line. Padres are trying to reset penalties. Whatever that number is.
Actually that’s never been said either.
@Joel P never trust Acee, never.
Acee said the reason was debt service ratio violations and in the VERY NEXT ARTICLE that the Padres did not have issues with debt service ratio.
If you believe Acee, then you have to believe Acee when he said his original article was WRONG.
You should believe the 10-12 people on this board that read Acee every day and have said he lied to get clicks.
You should believe the OWNER of the team, the CEO of the team, and the GM of the team who have all said that they do not have to cut payroll.
The loan was originally requested was $100 million and it was not even approved by MLB until September 18th AFTER payroll was already paid for the season. So why in the world would you think it was to pay for players? The team executive quoted in the article about the loan said it was planned far in advance and was taken out for something later in the year. Guess what NEVER happens between September 15th an opening day? Player payroll.
But hey, you can choose to be ignorant if you want. That is your choice.
You may want to learn what it IS before saying it’s a limitation. No one in the Padres, even those quoted anonymously, have said that the Padres are trying to duck under the CBT threshold.
So, NO payroll limitations
I’ll give an example of Kevin acee’s reporting. Last year at this time he said the padres have 5m to spend. They spent over 400m.
You can even watch the radio interview last year during spring trading when preller was asked about acee. He said we because hear what he says then do the opposite.
Will the padres lower payroll…who knows for sure but don’t believe it to be a fact because Kevin acee reported it.
The last time the owner asked a question about payroll was 2.5 months ago and he said it would be around the same as this years.
Preller hasn’t ever said what this years payroll would be.
The ceo has said they have access to all resources including funds. That the goal is to put a championship caliber team on the field for the fans next year.
So did the Padres take out a loan to make their payroll in 2023 or did Acee make that up?
It is confirmed they took out a loan, also in that article it says 25-33% of teams do this every year/. So it’s not uncommon or a big deal.
What’s not truly known is what they did or are planning to do with that money. They obviously didn’t need to to just make payroll because they originally wanted a 100m. Mlb let them take 50m.
Look many of you will only believe they are broke and going to sell if pieces. I get it and there is no changing your minds until they don’t or they do and you can be correct.
Acee never said they did. That was the Athletic. They were wrong. Just the timing of the loan proves they were wrong. Do you want to dig yourself any deeper of a hole?
I dint think 25% of trams take out a loan each and every year. And if they do I highly doubt it’s as much as 50 million. And the fact that MLB didn’t allow them to take 100 million like they asked isn’t a good thing it’s a bad thing.
You are not making sense. Time will tell. Wait and see.
I’m guessing 25%-33% of teams used to take out similar loans, but that was likely when interest rates were still low. It’s a different world now with high inflation and high interest rates.
The 25-33% was literally in the same article that the padres took out a loan. Starting to think you didn’t even read it. Pay the 2 bucks buddy and catch up.
Well after having their 1st rounder dropped a couple spots anfd qos picks pushed back a couple rounds cause of tax penalitoes padres should consider resetting the tax penalty line. But let’s see what happens if they don’t.
Right. Cause having your 1st round dropped a few slots and QO s picks knocked back a few rounds is good. Padres violate the cb threshold again it’ll be worse.
You just don’t think or pay attention. Maybe actually READ the articles referenced on this site and then you would know what they said.
That would make sense but rich find ways to get money at low rates still.
I honestly have nothing to validate that other than what I hear.
Seidler their owner made his money with other peoples money so I’m sure he knows what he is doing when it comes to finances
Literally didn’t disprove anything I said. Your personal attacks aren’t good either.
They do have payroll limits. Saying otherwise is not being honest this year.
Every team, including the Padres, have limits.
This is true. Saying otherwise is pretty dumb.
@Joel. Acee at SD Union Tribune has been wrong so many times I’ve lost count. He’s the only source regarding Pads reducing payroll to 200 MIL. The owner says it’s nonsense and that they will continue to compete fully, including payroll. Who would would you trust Acee or the owner?
He’s not the only source. Every news outlet is reporting it.
Well, they do have payroll limits. All teams do. They’re without a significant source of revenue next season, at least right now. MLB has prevented the team from drawing further on its credit line, as the team was able to borrow $100MM. MLB limited that to 50.
If you don’t know the name of the newspaper, there is a pretty good chance you never read any of the articles in that paper.
I can’t find a single article that says the Padres are cutting payroll that didn’t reference the Acee article. This site also keeps referencing that one Acee article. Do you have links to other articles that don’t reference Acee?
Why are you so defensive about this?
The Padres payroll was 248 million in 2023. If you think that is sustainable you are wrong. Just wait and see.
I didn’t say it was or wasn’t sustainable. I said if you don’t know the name of the paper, chances are you didn’t read the articles. Your defensiveness confirms my suspicions.
As a Rays fan I understand being in denial. Every year I think this is the year they go just a little bit further to complete the team.
Admittedly the denial is different, but the Padres have lost a lot of $$ from the TV revenue and it was well known they were at their payroll limits before that happened.
Payroll has to meet revenue. At least be close enough to shake hands.
Denial is what funds Las Vegas. The more logical way to approach things is to consider a range of possibilities. I’ve posted the numbers before. If the Padres want to go into 2024 with the same team as 2023, they would have to bust $325M in CBT.
Idk but trading Soto (who is going to absolutely mash in his contract year) would create an even bigger hole.
How are the Padres going to replace Lugo, Snell and Hader and cut payroll at the same time?
Maybe they should sign another shortstop…….
This is a win now all in team that didn’t win. There are no simple answers at this point.
They can fill pitching holes, cut payroll if you believe they will and still keep Soto.
Would require getting guys like lugo they got last year. They also could trade for some pitching which is how they got snell, mustgrove and darvish as well as hader.
There are plenty of options. Doesn’t mean they absolutely won’t trade Soto. However if they did trade Soto it would be for a pretty big haul. Talking something similar to the betts deal where the dodger’s basically traded the number 35 prospect (a year before) in verdugo, number 44 prospect at the time in downs (that didn’t pan out), a mid flyer on Wong and took on 48m of prices contract. So two top 50 prospects, a flyer prospect and either someone eats a bad contract in return or another high end prospect. That’s what betts got at the time of the trade. Don’t care how it turned out for the Red Sox.
So when teams are willing to start talks with those offers we can truely start talking about the padres trading Soto.
Of course almost all of the people here who post there offers it’s far less than that. If that’s what the gm’s offer then they wont trade Soto. All that and they still may elect to keep him. The padres have plenty of financial abilities. Even mlb network who said they spoke the commissioner about their debt said it isn’t an issue. Padres have a long term plan and selling players to save money only isn’t apart of that.
I don’t think you have a clue what you are talking about.
I understand Padres fans aren’t used to being contenders or having a big payroll. But you don’t seem to understand how all this stuff works.
Snell, Wacha, Lugo and Hader are gone. How do you replace those guys without selling the farm or trading Soto and keep payroll at a level that makes sense? Let’s say the Padres don’t scale payroll back like what’s being reported. Let’s say they keep it the same as 2023. How does this all add up???
Let’s say they don’t cut payroll. It stays the same. The padres with Soto are around 170m in payroll right now. That’s not including other arb guys who they may or may not keep like Grisham.
That leaves them 80-85m to spend this off-season. Pretty sure they can wire up the pitching with that.
Your numbers are incorrect. That’s imply not true what you said.
I think you and Soulsurfer might be the same guy. And that’s weird…..
It’s 100%, I have gone to sites and looked up payroll. You can add more with arb guys that I didn’t include except Soto. You can add more by adding player benefits but if you just look at 2024 payroll it will be about 170m including Soto.
Web is known for commenting from multiple accounts. I do not believe Simm is one of them.
The Padres don’t have 80 million coming off the books in 2024. And many players, like Soto, are getting raises. So how on earth do they have 80 million to spend to match last year’s payroll????
Think man think. Doesn’t add up.
I don’t know web at all. Matter of fact he speaks a little more in the what he calls facts the padres won’t cut payroll.
While I don’t believe they will, nothing they have done yet says the absolutely won’t.
At the same time no padre executive or owner has said they will. Fact is they are in so deep I don’t think they can change course. The owner has said they won’t over the years many times as well.
They have a ton coming off the books. On top of the fact that players like darvish are being paid way less in 24. Manny took way less in 24 as well.
They have 15m in other probable arb salaries for guys like Grisham and Barlow.
They have drew poms money off the books. Plus wacha, lugo, Martinez, hader, snell, García, and other smaller guys all coming off the books.
The money is there depending on what they decide to do with some of the other arbs guys.
Their payroll is estimated at 240 million right now with arbitration. They don’t have 85 million to spend but about 40 million to cut.
That’s a tax number and that’s not the same as actual payroll. Geez the people on here that say things they no nothing about.
Hey Joel, those guys are not the same person and are providing detailed explanations while you counter with nothing. Read up and return when you have something to add.
Pomeranz contract now off the books too
It is 100% false. We can add it up player by player that number is completely false.
You want a detailed explanation? I can list the contracts one by one. I already went to cots and looked them up. It’s completely false there is not 80 million to spend to match last year’s payroll that’s 100% false.
Please list the guaranteed contracts for next years payroll.
Here I’ll help you
Xander 25m
Tatis 12m
Machado 17m
Mustgrove 20m
Darvish 16m
Carpenter 5.5m
Suarez 10m
Kim 7m
Cronenworth 7m
Hosmer 13m
Total 122.5m. Add 33m for Soto and that’s 155.5m. I rounded some up and down for nearly even numbers. Plus all the league min guys they will have which some will fill the roster some maybe replaced by other dudes. You can add the what 750k for each of the fill ins which will be about 7 or so based on who played in the majors that is likely to make the team out of spring. So add another 10m.
Last years payroll was 255m.
So you are right it’s about 90m.
I listed the guaranteed contract for the padres next year for you. Now tell me where I’m wrong again for the 10th time you have said so.
I listed 10 guys on deals plus added Soto and 10m for players pre-arb which would add another 10 players. That’s 20 of the 26 man roster. With 90m left to spend on the other 6 players. Obviously no team will only use 26 players but that’s what you get for the opening day payroll.
So go ahead and spout more none sense.
My guess is you will be quiet now since you don’t know what you are talking about.
That’s 132.5 million fella check your calculator. And then you have Barlow and Grisham projected to make a combined 12 million in 2024. So we are up to 177 million including Soto. And with 14 more guys making league minimum that’s another 10 million right there. But it’s not going to be 14 guys making league minimum. The Padres need 3 starters. They need a catcher. And they need a bullpen.
You listed 10 players from a 40 man roster. You do realize player benefits and some minor league money is included in luxury tax payrolls. They also have Hosmer as a retained salary of over 12m. Machado tax hit is almost 32m and not 17m.
spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/payroll/
Yes 132.5m. Plus 10m for league min guys equals 142.5m
Add 33m Soto and you have 165.5m which is 80m less than last years payroll as I said.
Each time I said it was not counting any arb guys but Soto. So adding in Barlow and Grisham means nothing. They are both trade or non tender candidates. Perhaps they keep them who knows but they get to decide.
As far are you saying they need starters and pen arms…no joke and they have up to 80m
To spend to fill those holes. I can easily find 3 starters and a couple of pens arms or so for that. You are wrong admit it and look at my post saying they had 80m and you will see everything I’ve said is correct. Yet you still want to deny it. Get a clue bro..you just don’t know.
80m can buy a lot of quality arms. That’s before they even look to go the trade route.
Dude you need to use a calculator. You have the numbers but you can’t seem to add them together correctly.
I listed hosmer and yes the tax number is much higher. This conversation isn’t about their tax number which will be much higher. When people say they will be at a 200m
Payroll they aren’t speaking about the tax number because that isn’t what they actually pay. I also said in other post that this doesn’t include player benefits. So once again if you want to have a conversation stay on subject.
Btw all the players on the 40 man aren’t all costing them league min. Some of those guys may never even see the majors. So no this doesn’t count minor league payroll either.
They don’t have 80 million. You are really bad on how the payrolls work.
Okay fair enough for some reason I keep leaving off 10m but the numbers are still there and so is my point. Your point is they don’t have near the amount to spend as I pointed out.
They most certainly are talking about the luxury tax number. Minor league bonuses count towards the luxury tax but have a nice off-season and don’t be shocked when they don’t add 80 million in payroll this off-season.
I admit I didn’t think they had that much to go to match last year’s payroll. But I also don’t really think they will match last year’s payroll I think they are going to lower it.
The Padres got a lot of holes to fill. Yes they could keep Soto but I don’t know if they can keep him and sign all the pitching they need to be a contender in 2024.
They very well may lower it. I certainly don’t know what they are going to do.
It’s just a matter of who do you believe.
There is fair reason to believe they will lower payroll when you see a report that they took out a loan for 50m and another saying they will try to lower it to 200m.
If these reports are true then I agree with you they will need to trade Soto to field a proper team.
If you buy what the owner has said 2-3 months ago then they will be around the same as last year.
I choose to believe the owners comments because he has nothing but spend spend spend. With no signs of stopping.
Did something change over the last couple of months to change his position…maybe.
Perhaps the tv deal is going to hurt more going forward. Perhaps missing out on playoff money hurt them as well. Heck perhaps he is irritated spending a boatload of money and not making the playoffs.
There is plenty of reason to doubt but still at this point the last he has spoke about it was that it was going to be around last years. I believe that will be the case but I could definitely be wrong. Betting person would say maybe somewhere in the middle.
I just don’t understand why they signed Boegarts last year. They had to see the payroll issues coming and they signed a guy to play shortstop when they had other guys who could play the position. And they gave him an insane contract. Yeah it’s ok right now but he’s signed to what 40 years old?
I kinda like the Padres. My uncle lives in San Diego it’s nice there. Smallest million dollar home I have ever seen in life lol. But Preller is a bit of a bozo. I hate it when teams throw money at players they don’t even really need and that’s definitely what Preller did last year with Bogaerts.
Yeah a lot of padres fans say the same thing. If you look at what they did it was going out and trying to get the best bat they could.
They offered Turner 40m more than he signed with the Phillies. They reportedly were going to offer judge 414m which is much more than the Yankees gave him.
They went to the lcs. Coming back with a full year of hader and Soto plus we’re getting Tatis back. I think they thought they were one more bat away from winning it all. I can see the logic but it didn’t work out.
They have said all along they have a long term plan. When you sign all these dudes to lifetime contracts they knew what they were getting into. This is another reason I think they will continue to spend. They almost have no choice at this point. That or unload the farm again which they have done it feels like 3 times now.
Padres have got to be along with the Mets this year the biggest wild cards out there for this offseason. You just don’t know for sure what they will do.
They could trade Soto, they could sign Ohtani and neither would surprise me.
would create an even bigger hole.
===========================
Not necessarily. Since they are already considering moving Bogaerts, they could move him to LF, and spend the $33M in savings on some combination of JDM, Hoskins, Turner, etc.
The Padres were 30th in OPS at 1st and 19th at DH. You could easily pick up the difference in OPS by adding two quality bats at your weakest positions. And the defensive alignment would probably improve as well.
@JoeBrady That’s not going to make up Soto’s production. If it would, then Juan Soto would be a serious non-tender candidate this offseason.
Snell, Hader, Martinez, Lugo, and Wacha cost $55.7M in 2023. That’s how much they have to replace them.
My calculator tells me otherwise. Just using the 2023 OPS’:
Soto > Bogaerts =
JDM > SD DH = +176
Hoskins (’22) > SD 1B = +137
These things are never quite linear, but upgrading your weakest links will more than offset replacing your strongest links. It also deepens your lineup, which was one of your weaknesses last year.
@JoeBrady If that were true then Juan Soto would be a non-tender candidate and you could completely forget about him getting $500m next offseason.
I doubt he is getting $500M next year, though that could depend on the duration. SD could sign him for 15 years.
At the end of the day, there has to be an acknowledgement that Soto was only tied for 3rd/4th in bWAR for SD. Soto wasn’t in the top-10 bWAR for position players.
If he was so easily replaceable no one would trade anything at all for him.
Not sure how much stock Lee will put in Kim being here when he is a free agent after 2024. It’s not like the Padres will agree to either pay Kim whatever it takes to keep him in SD or trade Lee to whichever team signs him next year.
That is pretty stupid. Your best friend is playing for a team and they trade him. Do you choose to sign with that team immediately after that? Give me a break.
1. Depends on how much they offer.
2. I think Kim would be more of a factor if he wasn’t on track to be a FA in one year. But that’s just me.
Best friend
The money won’t change.
Kim is likely to be extended, but if he isn’t he is still his best friend. Trading him would have more of a negative effect than increasing money would.
Korean culture.
I don’t work with my best friend. Do you? I work where I am paid sufficiently, and am comfortable.
Lee will sign where he is comfortable. In a lot of cases a player like him prefers the west coast.
He will also want to get as much money as he can and that usually matters more than anything.
As you mention people want to work where they are comfortable. Having Kim here and even he said last week that Lee would be more comfortable signing with the padres because he can help him adjust to a new country.
So if the padres put in a competitive offer there is a good chance he signs with them. It won’t be just because he has a friend there but that doesn’t hurt either.
Well there’s a good chance his best friend is playing for someone else in 2025 and I don’t think this is some kind of secret to Lee.
Never said it hurts. Just that it would be more of a factor if Kim wasn’t 1 year away from FA.
stymeedone
I don’t work with my best friend.
====================================
I find that whole thing, with foreigners only going to teams with their countrymen on them, a bit tenuous. Yoshida & Yamamoto probably have the longest history of playing together than any two nationals ever, but I would consider that only a minor advantage.
Padres borrowed $100m in (2) $50m tranches to meet payroll. Mlb came in and prevented sdp from activating 2nd tranche citing excessive debt/income ratio. When an outside entity takes control of your finances you have a money problem, period.
Wrong. The Padres ONLY borrowed $50 million, it was approved by MLB on September 18th, which is AFTER payroll was already paid for the season. But thanks for trying to lie.
Every loan by every team is approved or not by the league. It’s the way it works.
Padres didn’t spend that money on player payroll because that had already be paid.
Who really knows the reason they did so. Maybe they wanted a 100m so they could put a down payment (signing bonus) on Soto or Ohtani.
Mlb didn’t let them take 100m because they seems they didn’t need it. Let’s be real the mlb and cheap owners hate the padres spending so much because it makes them look bad.
Manfred is on record as saying he hates the Padres spending. I understand he speaks for all the owners, just painting a larger picture here.
Also: the Pads just completed a $25m stadium touch-up. Perhaps the loan was for this? I use the question mark because, well, WE really don’t know… but that hasn’t stopped Acee and others from SPECULATING.
Going forward, I trust what Mr. Seidler says because-
A. He’s the boss.
B. What he says, goes… and he historically always tells the truth about The Pads.
C. Refer to both A & B
People can speculate on a Padre fire-sale because they’ve seen it before… but this is a new regime and they’re here to compete.
Love the article but I don’t see Soto being shipped for anything less than a massive haul. Not very likely, but possible. If anything, Soto is moved at the TDL if and when The Pads have sheet the bed again. Possible, but not likely. They will be fielding a winner next year and I believe they will attempt to reset the Tax Line. That is their only payroll limitation, in my honest and humble opinion. Of course, we shall see. Let the chips fall where they may. Good day all!
This is correct Gwynning.
I believe this is also why Seidler has allowed all these super long term deals. He has been on record many times saying he doesn’t see the padres as a small market team.
He has also been on record saying they are still figuring out where their limitations are. As they continue to spend and sellout a ton of games the padres revenue has grown a lot.
The big question is what will happen with their tv deal this year. Mlb guaranteed 80% of it last year and they sold a bunch of mlb packages as well as the rights to about every local tv provider to air padres games last year.
I haven’t heard anything from the league on what the plan is for this year. This of course could affect their rev. I’m sure the padres know by now a number of their options. They may even be weighing how much more can they make on whatever they do with their tv deal next year if they signed a guy like Ohtani. Who would clearly add value to it. Some say Ohtani from a market stand point is worth between 25-40m a year in additional revenue.
I don’t think the Padres are going to have a fire sale. And nobody has really said they would. But they can’t keep this team together without massively increasing payroll and I don’t think they are massively increasing payroll.
What on earth were the Padres thinking giving Bogaerts that silly contract?
The only way I see the Padres contending in 2024 is if they trade Soto. If they don’t I don’t see how they can come up with the money to fill out the rest of the team. And other people agree that’s why Soto is being discussed as a trade candidate. Because intelligent people, people not named Simm or Websurfer who I believe are the same guy, have done the math and it doesn’t add up.
Fair enough, Joel. I’m excited to see how this Offseason works out. My take is the Pads sign a couple arms (Yo-Ya, Lugo, Wade Miley and Jordan Hicks are my guesses) and maybe run it back with The Sanchize as the 2nd Catcher all whilst staying under that daunting 1st CBT Tier. Again, none of us know, but those are my guesses… and I’m still excited to see how “we” stack up. Aloha!
Gwynning I know you are a good guy. The other 2 guys are kinda irritating me I don’t mean to take that out on you if it came across like that.
I doubt the Padres are signing Yamamoto. If they had that kind of money they would simply sign Snell.
I think they have to trade Soto. It just doesn’t add up the way it is right now. And with a bit of luck the team could be better off for doing so.
@Joel P Would take some serious spin doctoring to explain how trading Soto (who is probably going to mash because he’s in a contract year) somehow makes the Padres more likely to contend than just keeping him. And don’t try it with “They can reinvest the $30m they aren’t paying Soto into other positions.” The ROI on that $30m won’t be nearly as good as Soto. If that were true, no one would trade for Soto and the Padres would have to non-tender him.
There is no way the Padres are going to have a better team on paper in 2024 than they did in 2023 unless they sell the entire farm system. Its not possible. Hader is going to make twice what he made in 2023. Snell maybe more than that. Lugo opted out and will get paid probably double what he made in 2023. Soto is getting a big raise. Tatis big raise. Cronenworth big raise. It’s just not possible. That’s why trading Soto has been and will continue to be discussed. That’s why. I am not a Padres fan or rival fan I have no horse in this race. I think it was incredibly stupid to sign Bogaerts when this problem they are in now was foreseeable but otherwise I don’t care one way or another
As you said. This was all foreseeable. If they were going to have to trade Soto they wouldn’t have traded for him in the first place.
Yamamoto @ 25yo vs. Snell at 30yo
Tough gamble, but I’d put my chips on Yamamoto being “better” the next 10 years. He’s the better investment, again, in my own humble opinion. I also feel somebody will overpay Snell- just a hunch. I was keen to extending Snell prior to ’23, but that ship has long sailed.
Trading Soto now portends a worse season ahead. There’s almost a next-to-zero chance that trading him would make the Pads better. As stated most recently by Harambe, the ROI on his salary is near impossible to duplicate (sans signing Ohtani at $50m per) and personally I’d rather just trade Grish if Lee is in the picture. Sure, the returns aren’t the same, but stash the lottery ticket and slap Platinum Glove Tatis into CF.
Signing Yamamoto @ $25m, Lee at $15, Lugo at $13m, Miley at $8m, Hicks at $9m and Sanchez at $5 seem fair-ish? Big names, big additions, roster is set and the bill is $75m for ’24. Doable by ANY team in The League.
Thanks for the chat Joel, I might just read any retorts tomorrow and respond in like.
I don’t think Yamamoto will get less than Snell, especially when you factor in the posting fee.
It’s like the Phillies fans thinking they are going to move on from Nola and sign Yamamoto.
EVERYONE wants Yamamoto. I think he ends up on the Mets because if they want him they will overpay for him. And I think he will want to play there although I do think San Diego is a desirable place
But Buster Posey said they will 100% trade Juan Soto.
If money is not an issue why are they letting snell walk when they need pitching
While I’m not saying money isn’t an issue when it comes to signing snell I’ll give you a reason why they wouldn’t even if they can afford it.
Snell is going to get around 30m a year. Ace money which he was last year.
The problem with snell is he isn’t always that pitcher. His 3 years with the padres were up and down. He doesn’t stay in games for more than 5ish innings and I think some teams would want someone who goes longer into games for that money.
When snell is on he is nearly unhittable but he is likely to regress from last year. His strand rate was very high. Yes it’s usually pretty good because of his strikeout ability. At the same time there is some luck involved as well. He was a broken bat bloop away from giving up a lot more runs than he did.
So when you look at his last 3 years is he the guy that was amazing the last 4 months this year or the up and down guy the previous years. You add that up with the fact that even when he is on he doesn’t go deep into games and you have a case for not wanting to pay him 30m a year for what 5-6-7 years.
But will they trade 100% Soto?
(Yo-Ya, Lugo, Wade Miley and Jordan Hicks are my guesses) and maybe run it back with The Sanchize as the 2nd Catcher all whilst staying under that daunting 1st CBT Tier.
==========================
That will borderline the highest tax level, but basically identical to their 2023 payroll. But I appreciate you being a bit more logical than some of the Padre fans in here.
Websoulsurfer, you seem to be in the know, but my (imperfect) understanding of the situation is that it’s not really up to the Padres. They have fallen out of compliance on their debt service ratio and there are MLB regulations on the matter. So sure their outward goal is to win, but they still need to comply with the regulations and the reports suggest that cutting payroll is one of the ways they can achieve that.
The commissioner literally told guys on mlb network today the padres dent isn’t an issue.
Btw they said 20% of the teams have been out of the so called dept ratio since Covid.
They have rules about debt but they haven’t been enforced.
Padres are fine and even Seidler said if needed they will do a cash call. He said he and the other owners have no issues in putting in money if needed.
Seidler is all in and that’s all that matters when it comes to payroll.
How about they are just cutting payroll because this team has players that care about stats and not winning as a team. Too many selfish players. They don’t have chemistry and honestly they won’t with this roster.
That could be the case as well. Then again perhaps after playing together and failing they will gel better next year.
Manfred said 23 teams were in violation of the debt service rule because of loss of revenue in 2020. That’s a bit more than 20%.
He also said that the Padres were one of 4 teams that had submitted a plan to get back into compliance in 2023 and were no longer in violation.
Simm… What did you expect the commissioner to say- They DO have an issue? He’s the owner’s mouthpiece and is never gonna admit that any owner has any financial difficulties at all.
Hmm, a Jays trade for Kepler and Polanco would solve their 3B and OF issue for next season. Wonder what return the Twins would expect for 1 yr of Kepler and 2 yrs of Polanco?
The Jays would not be raising any floors with those two. The Jays should seek higher.
Another presser trying to will a Soto trade into existence. Let me guess the offer from the press will be the other team’s 25th and 86th prospects and a fringe 40 man guy, that will get the deal done.
For one year of Soto in a team that’s having to borrow money to pay their players and that was 1 game over .500 and didn’t even come close to competing in the division? Yeah, something like that.
Trade wise out of the 25 I would think the D’Backs would be interested in maybe Max Kepler (Minn), Paul Blackburn (Oak) and Brandon Drury (Angels).. Out of those three I say they could maybe get two. Kepler would be placed in RF, with Corbin moved to LF. Blackburn for the rotation #4 and Drury can play 3rd and DH. Any of these would fit the payroll, but like I said I only think out of these 25.
Why don’t they play Corbin in CF ? I thought he came up as a center fielder. I was surprised he wasn’t playing there in the postseason.
Why does it seem like Kepler would be the type of player that AA would add to the Braves?
I agree. And then he’ll offer a three year extension.
I don’t understand why anybody would be excited about Kepler being available. He is nobody to get excited about.
I don’t think anyone is “excited” about Kepler being on the market. But if you know anything about how the Braves have operated the last few years, they seem to target their needs very specifically and without a lot of flash. With few exceptions, they generally look for players that don’t cost a comparative arm and a leg, that have been fairly consistent players, and good clubhouse fits. Kepler seems to check some of those boxes on the surface and probably is easily obtainable.
I’m not sure why the Mets would consider trading McNeil, at least right now. He’s coming off a down year (where he still put up 2.4 WAR and had around a league-average OPS+ of 97), so you would be selling low. He’s versatile and can play 2B or a corner outfield spot (has even played 3B and CF in a pinch). Mets need to see if Mauricio, Acuña, or even guys like Gilbert are going to pan out before considering trading McNeil. They need him, and his contract is very reasonable.
His power is meh. It’s all about power these days
I agree. McNeil is affordable and under team control and his performance has been well above average. No reason to trade him. See which of Mauricio or Baty wins the 3B job and if Acuna busts out in ST move McNeil to LF.
Soto to Cubs for Morel, Horton, Wicks or to Yanks for Schmidt, Hampton, Dominguez.
That’s how this site used to work.
For the Cubs throw in Steele and 4 pitchers and for the Yanks throw in Cole and Judge.
Hey hey hey James, we’re starting to resemble MLBTR Yanks fans if that’s our legimate ask!
😉
we’re starting to resemble MLBTR Yanks fans if that’s our legimate ask!
==============================
Not you, but some of your posse are nuts. Even Willie Mays would have a limit of what type of return he would get for one year.
Four years of Steele would be a huge overpay for Soto.
Four years of Schmidt, and six years of Hampton and Dominguez would be a humongous overpay for Soto.
These things aren’t even remotely close. I’d make a decent-sized wager that Dominguez will have a higher WAR over just his first three years than Soto will have in his remaining one year.
As the self-proclaimed greatest Yankee hater alive, I’d love to see them make that move.
Cole And Judge have NTC’s. Not even worth discussing.
Leave it to Harambe to ruin our fun!
>.<
@James Midway LOLLLL
Soto to Mariners for Woo plus two Top 5 prospects.
The mariners have the 19th ranked farm so two of the top 5 is a joke as is Woo. Throw in JROD and you have a deal. You can’t throw out peanuts and expect our best player.
It’s only for one season. You can’t expect the world.
It’s still one whole season of Juan Soto. Crappy prospects and a scrub isn’t going to move the needle in a trade. Doesn’t really matter though because he isn’t going to be traded.
LOL!
One season of Soto is worth 5.5 bWAR based on last year. 6 seasons of Dominguez is worth 15 bWAR, minimum.
“One season of Soto is worth 5.5 bWAR based on last year. 6 seasons of Dominguez is worth 15 bWAR, minimum.”
False!
Dominguez will be out at least half of 2024 and will be accumulating MLB service time while he is out. So not 6 years.
None of those guys have any value yet. Using BTV estimates just shows mental laziness.
ONE of those 3 might someday be an MLB average player but that is still a maybe today. The actual odds for guys at the bottom of the top 100 like Dominguez at #74 is closer to 1 in 7. So at this point claiming he has a worth of .15 to .20 bWAR is closer to reality.
Waaaay too much prospect capital for one year of a player that won’t sign an extension. No way Jed would touch that.
Padres deal Soto
Cronenworth shifts to LF or super utility role LF RF 2B, 3B, SS, 1B, Cronenworth should provide more defensive value and hopefully regain his offensive form. If they opt to find a OF replacement they should look for a bit more defense. Lee out of South Korea makes the most sense.
Kim signs a long term extension.
Padres swap Kim and Bogaerts at ss and 2b
Padres sign a slugging 1B
Padres potentially replace Grisham but Id keep Tatis Jr in RF.
Padres sure up catching tandem
Padres trade Jackson Merrill for pitching (Marlins? Mariners?)
@Ban agree on Merrill to the fish for pitching. He’s Uber valuable and doesn’t have a place on the padres right now. Merrill for Perez might work but pretty risky doing 1:1 for a pitcher with the injury risk.
Won’t be Merrill or Perez, but you are on the right track.
Padres need LHP. Luzardo is a LHP, 25, and has 3 seasons of team control. It wouldn’t take Merrill to get that trade done, but it would take a couple of players lower down in the top 100 prospects.
The Fish need OF, an IF, and a catcher. They have no depth in their system in any of those areas. Grisham. Rosario, Zavala/Iriarte, and Valenzuela for Luzardo.
Thats a terrible offer for Luzardo. You are incredibly delusional. You criticize the post yet you are off your rocker here.
Seriously? Its the one that Morosi posited on MLB Network this morning. Guess YOU are the delusional one.
Its 2 top 100 prospects, a Gold Glove MLB CF that has a league average WAR, and a glove first catching prospect that ended the season in AA.
2 top 100 prospects? Mlb.com has Zavala at 93 and none others you named are ranked.
You are obnoxious. I understand we are all fans of our teams but you have insulted the writer of the article the reporter for the San Diego times and many other posters as well. You are terrible.
First of all the paper isn’t even called the San Diego times. Get that right before you quote it and calling people idiots for doubting it.
Iriarte is top 100 on BA. By the updates in March the Padres will have 7 and possibly 8 top 100 prospects on MLB including Iriarte. They just had their #12 prospect by MLB.com win the AFL MVP which may be the best indicator of talent in all of baseball and most think he will jump to the top 100 as well.
I may be obnoxious, but I am correct. You act like a moron and I am not sure you can fix that.
Anything Jon Morosi says will happen, you can pretty much guarantee the opposite will happen.
Also is on fangraphs (iriarte) but he is right he isn’t on pipeline which is where most look them up at.
Morosi is pretty reliable. I think you are thinking of Heyman when it comes to rumors.
With Acee its absolutely going to be wrong.
They all suck. Bob Nightengale and Hector Gomez too. Rosenthal depends on the team. He blew it on the Scherzer to Padres thing but seems to be pretty reliable on the east coast teams.
Padres
Extend Soto age 25
Build around him and Tatis age 25
Extend Kim age 27
Sign Yamamoto age 25
Sign Jung Hoo Lee age 25
Sign Yariel Rodriguez age 27
Sign Jakob Junis age 31
Trade for Jesus Luzardo age 25
Sign Sanchez age 31
Trade Grisham, Hill, and Barlow.
Non-tender Nola
Let Wacha, Lugo, and Martinez walk
Let Snell and Hader walk with QO
Padres 2024 payroll $232-233 million
Wow it’s just that easy lol. Get your application out I think the Padres could use your help.
Speaking of the moron brigade.
The Padres have been named by this site, the Athletic, and by MLB.com as favorites to land FOUR of those players. Which is why they are on my list. Try paying attention for a change.
Which for the moron brigade out there, is UNDER the CBT threshold.
The CURRENT Padre CBT payroll, without adding a single player, is $242M, which is already over the CBT threshold.
Without trading Soto (and I am not saying you will), you have -0- chance of staying under. I will wager you a year’s absence from MLB-R that they won’t be under.
You have no idea what CBT payroll is for 2024. You don’t even know what it is for 2023 yet because MLB has not realeased what the final costs for benefits, etc… are. You won’t until sometime in early 2024.
Maybe that works for the 2024 payroll, but how do they extend Soto and balance the payroll for 2025 and beyond without being stuck using pre-arb players for at least half of their roster spots?
Yes even if you keep Soto for 2024 there is almost no way that the Padres will sign him as a free agent.
I still can’t understand why they signed Bogaerts. That was so stupid. If they didn’t do that perhaps they could have kept Soto long term.
A Soto for Vlad trade solves you 1B issues.
Doesn’t make the lineup better
Simm – Just curious, why would you make that assumption?
Just 2 years ago Vlad had a 1.002 OPS and was MVP Runnerup. Why do you assume he can’t be that good again?
Just last year Soto put up an .853 OPS, why do you assume he won’t regress again?
My guess is you are looking at 2022 Soto ops because it was over 900 last year.
I am not down on vlad but his numbers were pretty meh last year.
Could he rebound sure. The other thing you have to keep in my is Soto is the only legit left handed bat on the padres. So he balances the lineup much better then vlad.
So on the padres vlad doesn’t make next years team better then having Soto. 2024 is a big year for the padres. They missed the playoffs and 75% of padres fans are calling for prellers head. So I believe he will look at 24’ as a must win season and having Soto vs vlad makes better sense.
Vlad’s OPS was almost directly correlated to COVID. He might be the most overrated player in BB.
Simm – You’re getting your seasons mixed up, 2022 WAS last year. Haha!
Fair point on balancing the lineup, but most people feel there will be other moves made so you can’t really predict the Pads wouldn’t find another legit lefthanded bat if they traded Soto.
Vlad has 2 years of team control remaining as opposed to Soto’s 1 year, and Vlad would be a lot cheaper than Soto next year. Money is gonna be a huge factor in decisions they make, whether they decide to go for it next year or not. If they don’t replace Snell and Wacha with top starting pitchers, it won’t matter how good the offense might be.
Joe – Huh? Can you please explain yourself?
More likely opposing pitchers learned how to pitch him, and he hasn’t adjusted to their adjustments yet.
Vlad has always been a .800 OPS type of guys. .772, .791, .818, and .788. That excludes 2021. If you take out the results from Sahlen & TD Park, it is .895 for 2021.
If you were ensured of getting the 2021 version of Vlad, then he is worth Soto+. But I wouldn’t trade Soto for the other four years of Vlad.
Vlad has only been great when playing in a AAA park.
When playing in Toronto he has averaged 2.86 WAR in full seasons and a 119 OPS+.
Soto has averaged 5.8 WAR and 157 OPS+ in full seasons over the same time period.
Vlad is regressing each season. Soto has been roughly the same.
Can’t trade Soto unless they get Abrams, Gore and Wood back.
Hate to break it ya, Harambe… but I don’t think the Nats are on the market for Soto. Gut call and I could be wrong…
Methinks they try to bring him back as FA next offseason. Will cost a lot of money but was always going to.
That would be interesting! I don’t see it though, especially if they’re on the market themselves. Interesting thought though!
It’s going to come down to the money but no, I don’t think Soto has any hard feelings about being traded. The Nats are objectively in a better position for 2025 and beyond because of that trade.
In recent years, there was talk in SD of moving either Kim or Cronenworth to the OF. Even though Kim is outstanding in the inf, he is far better suited for the OF than Cronenworth.
Ugh, too bad we locked up Cronenworth and Bogarets long term when we really didn’t have to.
Below I have a tentative plan on the 2024 SD offense.
There was no talk of moving Kim to the OF. There was a rumor when he was first signed that maybe that was the reason the Padres signed him since they already had so many infield players and prospects. Obviously, that rumor was wrong. The Padres never played him there. Ever.
Bogaerts was a good signing. He was better than Kim in 2021-2022 and this season he put up a 4.4 WAR at SS. That is 7th best in baseball at the position. For that he made only $25.45 million and provided $15 million in surplus value. He is expected to rebound to closer to his 2021-2022 numbers, but even if he doesn’t that is still a good contract.
Cronenworth on the other hand was bad and it hasn’t even started yet.
You posted a really, really bad tentative plan for the 2024 Padres.
Pretty crowded middle infield market. Some of the guys have positional flexibility, though, which could separate them a bit.
India is interesting as a guy who would primarily play third base here. Verdugo could be this year’s Renfroe and come here and be meh in right field.
Was going to ask a stupid question about 3B already having a 3B then realized who it was that the Angels have at 3B.
Considering the disenchantment on both sides, it would be hard to believe the Tigers don’t trade Spencer Turnbull by the end of Spring Training.
When he’s healthy, he can be a mid=rotation starter.
Jonathan India for Alek Manoah
As a Jays fan, India is the only one of your infielders I’m not interested in. I’d love one of the guys who could play at least one of the positions on the left side.
As a reds fan, I think it’ll take more than india which is concerning. There’s a lot of high end top 10 prospects in reds system. And tbh, developing pitchers is cincys strong suit so not sure if manoah can bounce back there.
Manoah, tiedemann+ for Glasnow and Ramirez. That gets kanjis a player on the left side
I enjoy these type of posts
As a Cardinal fan I would put ONeill in the top 25 because of his upside and likeliness of being traded which is high. I think both him and Carlson get dealt. Very different players some teams would prefer ONeill some Carlson.
I don’t know if I would include Donovan in the top 25. I think he could be dealt. And I think he’s a really good fit for numerous teams. But the Cardinals won’t part with him without something really good coming back.
Again I enjoyed the post thank you
Tyler O’Neil has no upside.
He doesn’t? He was top 10 in MVP votes in 2021. And he’s very available and probably won’t cost much to acquire since Marmol the moron called him put publicly and wants him gone. He’s gonna make about 5 million in 2024. He’s the definition of upside.
You are planning for the 2024 season, not 2021. Look at 2022 and 2023. What did he accomplish those seasons? You have to be available to help a team and he is rarely available. I am not trading much of anything for him.
He won’t cost much of anything so what’s your point? To say he doesn’t have upside is total nonsense. He was better than Jordan Walker last year. Better than Carlson. Needs to stay healthy.
JoelP Do you think McNeill can turn it around and be MVP caliber again…or is he going to be perpetually hurt because he’s made out glass?
Look up the word “upside.” If O’Neill is rarely available (or playing hurt even if he is) again next year, then that’s not his upside. His upside is that he stays healthy, in which case he’s an excellent all-around player even if he’s not quite as good as he was in 2021.
It would be dumb to trade both of them I think. Especially since you’d be selling low on both
ONeill only has 1 year left. Yes it definitely could look dumb later. I wouldn’t trade him personally but I believe they will. It might be what gets Marmol fired and I am cool with that.
Carlson less upside but more team control. Again I wouldn’t trade him but I think they will. They benched him on opening day for Walker. Dumb
Marmol isn’t in charge of trades, and Mozeliak and Girsch aren’t going to trade O’Neill just because Marmol says to do so. There’s not even any evidence that there’s any bad blood between Marmol and O’Neill beyond that one incident early in the season. As such, any potential trade of O’Neill has little bearing on Marmol’s job security.
Of course Walker played over Carlson on Opening Day. Walker was the highly regarded rookie coming off a hot Spring Training to make the team, while the Cardinals were facing a right-handed pitcher, against whom Carlson had also struggled to hit in 2022.
That being said, I agree that it’s likely that one or the other gets dealt. It’s still possible but doubtful that both of them are traded, though.
I don’t think the Cardinals have room on the roster again for both Edman and Donovan next year, so I think one or the other is likely to be traded. They have Arenado at 3rd and will likely give most of the playing time in the middle infield to Gorman and Winn. One or the other works as a super-sub moving between the outfield and the middle infield, but I don’t think they need two of those guys while they’re trying to rebuild their pitching staff.
They could move Winn, if they wanted. I wouldn’t be all that sad if he was part of a package for a cost-controlled starting pitcher.
Getting three SP will be painful, especially if two are better than Mikolas (needed to be competitive, in my meaningless opinion).
Filler article on a slow news day. Keep walking on. Nothing to see here.
It’s the middle of November fella. What did you come here expecting?
Of course and right now evey player in baseball is available. . . For a price.
You do realize the free agent and trade market doesn’t ramp up until late November and early December with the winter meetings right?
@nurse
Yes, blogs tend to create content to share on their website to generate views. Congratulations, you cracked the code, detective.
Filler article? This is the kind of thing most MLBTR fans love. Trade rumors, trade speculation, you know? And the 300+ comments here would seem to evince that.
Who would want Glasgow? He’s thrown over 100 innings twice and he’s owed $25 million next season. Talk about a waste of money and assets
GLASNOW The Dodgers would want him. Glasgow is in Scotland.
What about Glaslater?
A lot of teams? He’s incredible when healthy. Even if he only pitched 100 innings, he’s a valuable asset
VoR
“Who would want Glasgow? ”
Nearly every team in baseball
Exactly. With a salary like that, he’s not going to cost much in trade.
Bieber and Valera for India and Lyon Richardson
My guess is that this could be a starting point, but I don’t think they’ll want to give up Valera and they’d rather have an outfielder.
Cleveland does not need India. They have Ramirez at 3B, Gimenez at 2B, and a boatload of middle infielders in the system. Cleveland’s weakness is in the outfield. They are not going to trade Valera for more middle infielders.
India to LF then. His power may suffice there
I like that offer ! Reds will prob want someone other than Valera though
Cleveland has Steven Kwan, a two time AL Gold Glove winner. in left field. They are not giving up the defense for India’s mediocre bat.
SOTO to Seattle for pitching.
If we don’t get Ohtani, it’s happening. I would even take both, what the heck.
Ignorant – My gut says Soto ends up in the AL East, either Toronto or NYY or Boston.
Yanks desperately need a big bat in the OF if they don’t land Belli or Ohtani.
Jays need offensive help and have the money to spend.
Padres would want Duran or Rafaela to fill a need and save money, and the Sox would use Soto as a fallback if they don’t land Ohtani because they will need one more big bat to complement Devers and hopefully Casas.
Note to commenters: if your team’s potential trade asset is a star but one year away from free agency, he has much less value than you think.
Note to Webb, if your trade asset is a star he has more value than you think he does. The FA market stinks and not a who lot in that list that is actually available that would be cheap regardless of how many years of control they have.
Brendan Donovan is not going to be traded, dead stop. O’Neill and Edman both may be traded, probably.
If you’ve watched a Cardinals game, you know Donovan moves that offense along with Nootbar. Donovan is an on-base machine.
Leave him alone, let him be.
Gorman is not going to be traded either.
All of the sports writers who continue to say this nonsense will be traded.
Can’t trade Edman. At least not yet. Edman plays center and short and those are two weak positions heading into 2024. Now if and when Saggese and Scott are ready and Winn starts hitting sure Edman could be dealt. But you can’t trade him yet.
While admittedly a bit of a long shot, Trout would be an interesting trade candidate to consider if the Halo’s decide to press the reset button and focus on adding pieces to their core of talented youngsters.
I’m 99% sure he has a NTC baked into his contract… but even if he doesn’t, he has 10 & 5 rights.
Correct and correct
If correct and correct then 100%
Padres:
SD starts 2024 in South Korea. Yes, the Padres aren’t obligated to keep Kim because of that, but they were clearly chosen because they have Kim. It would be awkward and unbecoming to trade him.
Controversial Trade Idea:
Soto is as good as gone, it is a foregone conclusion. Perhaps trade Grisham as well.
I really want to keep Kim. In recent years, there was talk of moving Kim to the OF, at least part time. Perhaps trade Soto and Grisham, move Tatis to CF, and Kim to RF. Then move Cronenworth back to 2b. Find other people to play LF or 1b. Perhaps resign Jurickson Profar? Perhaps sign Jung Hoo Lee?
C: Gary Sanchez/Campusano/Sullivan (Sanchez/Campusano will play DH when not playing C)
1b: Profar?
2b: Cronenworth
SS: Bogaerts
3b: Machado
LF: Lee
CF: Tatis
RF: Kim
Bench: Eguy Rosario, Matthew Batten, Azocar
This plan doesn’t show too much imagination as every single player here was a Padre in 2023, but what do people think?
Padres aren’t moving a gold glove infielder to the outfield. They can play Jackson Merrill out there before they do this. Merrill has played a few games in the outfield as well as first base this season in the minors.
WTF are you talking about? .
Soto being traded is not a foregone conclusion. He will be the Padres LF in 2024.
Machado will start the season at DH or 1B.
Kim will start the season at 3B. In no potential universe would the GG infielder be moved to RF. There was never any talk of moving him there either.
Profar is going to be relatively expensive and not as good as other options at 1B. Why would the Padres sign him? They wouldn’t, that is the answer.
Lee was not a Padre in 2023, but may be in 2024. If so, he will play CF or RF.
I think Soto will be traded. I also don’t think Profar will be expensive, and I wonder why you think he would be? There was definitely talk of Kim and Cronenworth potentially getting some reps in the OF. Neither has ever played the OF in the majors.
Machado at 1B!? He would definitely not be happy with that.
But if Machado plays 1b that does solve a lot of problems.
C/DH: Sanchez, Campusano, Sullivan
1b: Machado
2b: Cronenworth
SS: Bogaerts
3b: Kim
OF: Lee, Tatis, others (Grisham? Soto? Guy traded for them?)
Bench: Rosario, Batten
Post the link to where they talked about Kim and Crone getting outfield reps.
Why would Profar be relatively expensive when he was a bottom 5 player in all of MLB in 2023?
According to the CBA a player can’t have more than a 20% drop in salary unless he signs a minor league deal between major league deals. Didn’t Profar make about $7.5 million in 2023?
That’s just not true. They’re not going to make Profar sign a minor league deal if some team out there is willing to give him 4 or 5 mil but no more. Nor can they force teams to pay him more than that.
There is this little thing called a CBA. Go read it. You can find it at the MLBPA website.
I did read it and you’re wrong. And you know you’re wrong. Stop digging your heels in. We don’t need a repeat of the “Spencer Strider gets credited for 2 years of service time in 2022 instead of just 1” incident.
The “can’t have more than a 20% drop in salary” rule is for players who are still in arbitration. Profar is not still in arbitration. He is a free agent. Like all free agents he is free to sign with whomever he wants for as much as they will give him. If what you BaseballisLife are saying were in fact true the Padres would have not been allowed to sign Jered Weaver to a $3m major league contract after 2016 because he made $20m in 2016.
And don’t try it with “That was during an old CBA.” There are players who have done that during the current CBA like Dallas Keuchel.
Article VI. Page 11
mlbplayers.com/cba
“Pursuant to Article XX(A) of this agreement.” That is referring to players who haven’t reached free agency yet. Profar has. Tons of players sign major league free agent contracts for less than 80% of what they made the year before. Like Jered Weaver, Zack Greinke, Dallas Keuchel and JD Martinez.
So aside from being wrong, your argument makes no sense. The owners wouldn’t want it because it would be another roadblock to them signing players they want. The players union wouldn’t want it because it would force players who are capable of getting major league contracts to sign minor league contracts. It would be especially bad for the JD Martinez’s of the world (past their prime but still easily good enough to play in the majors).
Oh hey. I like smoking cannabis too!
Why not Bogaerts to LF, Lee to RF (or CF) and Kim to SS. If Bogaerts can handle LF, that is a better defensive alignment.
Pads will be in on a CJ Cron or Rowdy Tellez-type rebound (Cooper returns?) one-bagger… but it simply should be Bogey. Kim to SS, Croney to 2B. Gold Gloves all around the dirt and potentially the best IF defense in the game. Leave the grass to the real OFers. Sign Lee. Use Soto’s bat in a walk year. Move Grish if you like, or just keep his glove as late inning D. This is the way.
I think Web is right on this one. Machado just had surgery on his elbow and won’t be playing 3B for a few months at least next season.
So either Bogaerts or Kim will have to play there. While Kim is the better defender at SS, he is also the better defender at 3B. That’s the Padres left side of the infield to start the season. That also means that Cronenworth would need to man 2B for those couple of months.
Next question is who plays 1B? Would Machado be able to do that or would he have to DH? If he is the DH do they resign Cooper to play 1B for those couple of months or go after someone else.
The Machado surgery complicates things for the Padres.
Of course you think web is right lolz.
Just to clear up any confusion – the Padres aren’t moving Ha-Seong Kim to the outfield.
Just trade Burnes for Soto
What use would the Brewers have for a rental?
But…Burnes is a rental. They’d just be spending more money (which, of course, Attanasio is averse to) for their rental. But I expect the Braves to pull this off.
Would be fun for sure! I’d trade Burnes and Adames for sure, dangle Williams – plenty of teams looking for late innings pitching. Woodruff I’m afraid is non-tendered, hopefully offered a 2-yr deal to stick around and rehab but I doubt it. Load up on some pitching prospects with those deals and simply trust your farm and start playing some of the kids. Use free agency to fill clear voids and try to hit a few reclamation projects. That’s the small market formula to remain competitive.
Hate to break it to you soto is WAY more valuable than burnes. It’s not even close. So after brewers throw in 2 top 10 prospects. Is it still worth it ??
You don’t have to even duck to let that go over your head. OTOH, never underestimate the Padres’ desire to shed some of their bloated salary. Of course, the Brewers aren’t exactly known for taking that stuff on.
Not one Pirates player in sight…. what a crazy time to be alive.
Where are the Dodgers trade candidates they certainly have a few they can ship out
Would be nice if they could unload Taylor and Barnes.
I still think Machado and or Tatis are going to be moved as well. The Padres are gonna have to eat a ton of money to do so.
Not a chance. Machado has a full NTC and has said on MULTIPLE occasions he’s not waiving it. He wants to spend the rest of his career in Padre brown.
And the Padres wouldn’t have to eat one cent if they were to trade Tatis.
Tatis has a ton of surplus value. He has an aav of 24m a year until he is 35. Not some 40 year old ending deal like Xander or machado’s.
Tatis like manny and Xander also has a current full no trade clause.
Padres shot themselves in the face by extending Machado. Tatis has trade value but his history is checkered too. Both players are me-first non-team players.
So you’ve played with them before?
Glad they are your albatrosses Padres fan and not the Dodgers.
Lol Tatis an albatross. All 29 other teams would take that contract if they had the chance. Yes, even the Rays and Pirates.
Exactly. On a team filled with superstars he’s the clear fan favorite amongst Padre fans. His jersey was the 4th highest selling one in all of baseball behind only Ohtani, Acuna, & Judge.
And he makes 11m next year. I love that he can have a 5.5 bWAR and it can be considered a disappointment by some (while making 7m).
I’m hungry!!!
As a Mets fan I would like to make 2 big trades: if Boras is looking for crazy $$ for Alonso, than I would trade Alonso, along with Quintana and Marte( plus $10-$20 mil) to the Cubs for Justin Steele, Ben Brown, PCA and Wisdom. Then trade McNeil, Vientos, Butto and a SS prospect to the Brewers for Corbin Burnes.
Sign Yamamoto, Hader, Jordan Hicks, Matt Moore, Robertson and Soler to DH. Rotation: Yamamoto, Burnes, Senga, Steele and Brown( Vasil). Acuna(2b), Nimmo, Lindor, Soler, Wisdom, Alvarez, Mauricio, PCA and Gilbert (RF).
You forgot sign Ohtani, trade for Harper, hope you can get a waiver claim for Gerrit Cole and somehow get Brandon Hyde to be the bench coach and Bill Belichek as manger
“Justin Steele, Ben Brown, PCA and Wisdom.” for Alonso and Marte LOLLL
Oh and get Howard Stern to be play by play guy
What about Ezequial Duran who the Rangers may trade for pitching. Either him or Leody Taveras could go.
Dodgers should be in a ,ost of those guys
Soto – if he’s traded, they’ve got to be involved. Unlikely to end up in LA, though
Adames and Burnes – Dodgers need pitching and Adames at SS with Lux at 2B makes sense to me. Depends a lot on how the team feels about Vargas and Busch.
Beiber – Dodgers need pitching. His late season injury would seem to make him more risky than I’d want
Glasgow – Dodgers need pitching. Familiarity between the teams. Came back strong after injury. Seems like a fit
Cease – Dodgers need pitching. Cease has talent.
Verdugo – fills a need. Replacing Heyward or Peralta. A reunion seems unlikely though, I think the Dodgers will be avoiding any guys with off field issues after Urias and Bauer. Also, I’d much rather they sign Brantley for that role.
Grishom – See Verdugo. A left-handed hitter fits the bill.
Kim – Dodgers could use an infielder. Kim is awesome. A higher profile player is less likely to be traded between division mates – even if that’s dumb
Torres – Again. Dodgers might want help up the middle.
India – See Torres
Jimenez – a fall back (way back, I’d imagine) option if the tram misses out on Ohtani AND Martinez.
Kepler – see left-handed OFers
Polanco – see second basemen
Arrozarena – Dodgers could add Randy to LF. That’d be a bold move, Bold moves are less likely by definition.
Mariners starters – Dodgers need starters. If they prefer any of the Mariners’ players to their own their could be a deal. Maybe involving Lux or Outman. Otherwise Vargas or Busch.
Carlson – Dodgers likely need an OFer. Unless the team sees something in him they can change this seems unlikely.
Blackburn – Dodgers need pitching, I don’t think Blackburn would be the #1 target, but they could be interested.
Manoah – Dodgers need pitching. If Manoah comes cheap enough, they could take a gamble and trust that if he doesn’t workout one of the rookies can step in. Possible upside play.
Drury -see other 2B
Donovan- see other 2B
Morel – seems unlikely unless the team sees something specific in him
Vasquez – Dodgers pretty set at C with Smith.
Robert – Dodgers would be in if he’s available. Unlikely Dodgers would be highest bidders on him.
Alonso – Dodgers pretty well set at first
Realistically, Burnes or Glasnow for the rotation. Perhaps Adames at SS
Any of the second basemen are possible.
All those names and no Arenado? He grew up a Dodgers fan. He wants to play for a winner. Muncy and May I think would be fair.
JP
“no Arenado? He grew up a Dodgers fan. He wants to play for a winner. Muncy and May I think would be fair.”
For what it’s worth
Baseball Trade Values has
Arenado at 15 million, 104 million future performance
Muncy 22 million, 56 million future performance
May 13 million, 19 million future performance
The trade calculator says it’s lopsided in the Dodgers favor, but I don’t think this is the kind of trade the Cardinals are looking for. May has too many questions about his return. Muncy is a very productive player who looks very likely to out perform his contract, but not sure he’s what StL would be looking for. If they trade Arenado, they are,likely re-tooling. Thus, they’d want longer term pieces than Muncy,
People keep assuming that if the Cardinals trade Arenado they would be rebuilding but that’s not really the case.
Muncy could play 3b, 1b and DH. He could possibly take over for Goldschmidt after 2024. I wouldn’t call him a need but the Cardinals could use him and I think the Dodgers would have to move him to make it work.
Dodgers can have Carlson too. He’s a good fit for them outfielder who can play some center and is a switch hitter.
Cardinals have plenty of long term pieces. They are trying to contend they need better pitching and this would free up money to go get it. Plus May has upside whenever he gets healthy.
People keep assuming that if the Cardinals trade Arenado they would be rebuilding but that’s not really the case.
=========================
I’ve been saying this since the summer. They have a couple of guys that can play 3rd (and 1B as well). The replacements won’t be as good, but they won’t be mutts either. And then the Cards would have an extra $61M to add pitching.
This is the same for Soto, and most other $25M+ players. The replacement package has to consider both the prospects you will receive PLUS the players you can sign with the money saved.
Exactly Joe. And just like Soto exactly.
JB
The problem here is
Since Arenado has positive value, he’s expected to produce in excess of his contract – by definition.
Any players the Cardinals sign would be, by definition, expected to produce equal to their salaries (long term deals being an exception).
Taking a player, like Arenado, who concentrates production in one roster spot to spread that production over multiple roster spots can work. But it’s tricky. And usually just easier to try and upgrade those positions without the trade.
In the Cardinals case they have guys who can play 3b. Gorman is a natural 3b he really doesn’t belong at 2b. Donovan can play 3b. Saggese is coming soon he can play 3b. And my suggestion included Muncy coming back and he can play 3b.
The Cardinals need all the pitching they can get. And I don’t think they have the payroll to get enough to get the team back to contender in free agency. This would help with that.
I like Arenado. But he wouldn’t mind playing for the Dodgers. And it might be best for everyone involved.
The Cardinals aren’t trading Arenado. Even if they did, they would have zero interest in Muncy. Infield is the very least of their needs; even less than the outfield. Any trade of Arenado would start with May and Stone.
If Harris for the Tigers knows how to do his job, he’d be getting rid of Baez for anything. If the Tigers want to move forward, they need to get rid of Baez. He doesn’t fit any of their current movement, and they need to move him to make the team better.
xTFx
“xXTheFETTXx2 hours ago
If Harris for the Tigers knows how to do his job, he’d be getting rid of Baez for anything.”
BTV lists Baez has having negative 76 million in value, with 21 million of on field performance over the next 4 years.
How do,you see them moving him in a way that makes the team better?
Eat the money and just get rid of him… I don’t care if they DFA him…they have the money now to eat that cost, just let him go and do ANYTHING else at SS.
If Harris knows what he is doing, even at cost, trade him to a NL team. The Tigers need to move on from him…he was a horrible signing, let another team deal with it.
I’m catching this late, but I’d like to point out a couple of things about Seattle…
First, If they trade pitching, they’ll need to acquire pitching. Even if they don’t trade pitching, they’ll likely acquire pitching. Starters, a high-leverage reliever, middle-innings relievers…
Second, the only hitters likely off-limits are Julio, Cal, and JP. That doesn’t mean everyone else is being shopped, but with Jerry Dipoto, we can expect surprises.
Hopefully the surprises this offseason won’t be underwhelming additions like we saw last offseason.
Ha Seong Kim for Alex Verdugo would be a very fair trade–opening the gate for a Soto move for prospects then signing an Ace starting pitcher for the Padres. It helps both teams and Doogie would go back home to the Southern Cal. area.
Quite possibly the most ridiculous “fair” trade proposal I’ve read.
Kim, a nearly 6 WAR player making 8 million next year for Verdugo who will make more, is a light hitting corner outfielder with a 2.6 WAR last season.
Getting worse while spending more money is a “fair” trade in your eyes. What’s next, Verdugo will hit better at a notorious pitchers park?
The value of verdugo isn’t close to Kim’s. Kim is a much better player. If the padres traded Kim they could get a better player then verdugo plus if they traded Kim it would be for pitching or high upside cheap controllable talent.
Madmc44
“Ha Seong Kim for Alex Verdugo would be a very fair trade”
BTV has
Verdugo’s trade value at 5 million
Kim’s at 23 million
That would not seem to be a fair trade at all
@filihok I thought you were anti-BTV?
RG
No
It’s not perfect. Or gospel. But their track record speaks for itself.
Why would they trade Soto for prospects when they already gave up Abrams, Gore and Wood for him?
Kim and Donovan would make for good fits in Toronto. The asking price may be too high with the demand for both players, but it would certainly line up with their needs.
Soto will be the biggest player on the market next year whether he’s traded or not. I don’t see a player signing an extension after already turning down the largest contract ever offered. The question is whether San Diego will risk seeing him walk for a 4th round pick.
This is the biggest reason they may trade him. Think it would depend on the offer.
Keep in mind the padres first goal is to win next year. It’s hard to believe the return they would get would make the padres better in 24’.
It’s a tough decision if the padres can’t extend soto which most view as very unlikely. I don’t think anything happens until Ohtani signs. Then the offers for soto could go up. Plus I think he sets the market or helps set the market for what soto may get as a free agent.
The padres org is under a lot of pressure to win next year especially AJ Preller. Which also means the owner Seidler for keeping him.
I would bet that Giancarlo Stanton is available. LOL
If the pirates make trades my top looks on this list…
I’d be interested in Manoah if they with take a combination including B type, C type prospect, cash or a change of scenery player. Some may say that would be too cheap for a player who was so good before last year.. other may say that is too much for such a crappy pitcher. Personally I wouldn’t put too much into it but would definitely do a bit more than checking in.
Josh Bell I’d be interested in as a stop gap 1st basemen/dh If i didn’t have other plans for the position.
Any of those Seattle pitchers mentioned. With some surplus infielder prospects the pirates have a fairly even swap could probably happen. all three look like they could be plus pitchers.
Note: only one i’ve seen play more than in passing is Bell when he was a Pirate.